"I think he will be able to fill that role," Hoyer said, according to Roll Call.
Dicks is the next ranking member on the subcommittee. He is also the chair of the subcommittee on interior appropriations, on which he has served since he became a Congressman in 1977.
Dicks is "an extraordinarily able Member of Congress," Hoyer said.
]]>"We support President Obama's expressed willingness to make recess appointments of critical posts in the federal government if that's what it takes to get around minority delay and obstruction," says an official statement from AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka. "There are currently more than 60 political nominees being held up by the Republican minority in the Senate - at this point in the Bush Administration, only four nominees were still in limbo."
Ins so doing, Trumka joins Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in arguing that it's appropriate for the President to circumvent GOP obstruction.
]]> Earlier this evening, Craig Becker's nomination to serve on the National Labor Relations Board failed to over come a filibuster. The final vote was 52-33 with 15 members not voting.During his year in office, Obama has faced unprecedented obstruction of his nominees by Republicans in the Senate. Just last night, Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) lifted a blanket hold he'd placed on all of the President's executive branch picks. Today, for the first time, Obama said he may have to use his Presidential prerogative to situate his nominees using recess appointments, simply to get his administration staffed.
]]>The numbers: Specter 51%, Sestak 36%. Last month, Specter led by slightly more, at 53%-32%, but the month before that was closer at 48%-35%. Specter switched parties last year, after 28 years as a Republican Senator, because his support for the stimulus bill had served to guarantee his defeat in the GOP primary. Sestak has been attempting to parlay distrust of Specter among Democrats into a successful primary challenge, but the incumbent has been holding on.
From the pollster's analysis: "Specter's support has ranged from 46% and 53% in the earlier polls. Incumbents who fall below 50% on a consistent basis are viewed as vulnerable, but this is the second month in a row where he's crossed that critical line. In the five previous Rasmussen Reports polls on the race, Sestak's support has ranged from 32% to 42%. He was most competitive in October when the numbers showed Specter with 46% of the vote and Sestak at 42%."
]]>Just 30% of respondents to the poll said that Republican efforts at bipartisanship are "about right." Fifty-eight percent said the GOP is doing "too little" to work with the their Democratic colleagues. Respondents were more approving of Obama's attempts to be bipartisan -- 45% said his efforts were "about right," and 44% said they were "too little."
]]> Among independents, whom the GOP have claimed as their own in the past several months, the support for Obama's efforts at being bipartisan over the Republican attempts holds. Fifty-six percent said the GOP is doing "too little" to be bipartisan, and 50% said the same about Obama.The poll shows that a big majority want the parties to work out a bipartisan deal on health care reform, as Obama has advocated. Sixty-three percent said lawmakers should work out a deal and get a reform bill passed, while just 34% said it was time to drop the topic all together.
]]>Arpaio, a long-time opponent of illegal immigration -- and of McCain himself, having endorsed Mitt Romney in the 2008 GOP primaries instead of his home state's candidate -- has written a letter promoting Hayworth's candidacy, The Hotline reports. The letter was sent out to Arpaio's fundraising list. In the letter, Arpaio accuses McCain of having "moderate or even liberal positions." Arpaio also attacks McCain's political credibility as a conservative, seemingly ridiculing him for doing a bad job of campaigning against Barack Obama in 2008.
"Senator McCain has served this country admirably but it's time to replace his moderate or even liberal positions on taxes, the border, social causes and big bank bailouts with a consistent conservative like J.D.," Arpaio writes. "I just wish Senator McCain had run as hard against Barack Obama as he is against a conservative like J.D. That could have prevented the harmful, liberal agenda we are all now suffering through."
]]>"The issue before the Senate and the decision I have to make after speaking to the Republican leader is what we do when we come back here on Thursday," Reid said on the floor this afternoon.
We'll have an intervening day. I would rather not be in session tomorrow if, in fact, we have to file cloture on that package that I just talked about. I have told everyone that what I think would be the appropriate way to do is to get on that bill and to have some amendments on both sides, and I hope we can do that. We really need to finish the bill this week. I would hope that we can do that in a reasonable time. It appears from what I have been able to determine is that the storm will end sometime early tomorrow evening. The problem is the streets in the D.C. area are pretty difficult so we would have to make sure that everyone has time Thursday to get here. There are some people who live in the suburbs when they are in Washington, and so we have to make sure that they have time to get here. Anyway, we're working on these issues. And then we have the President's Day recess. I hope we don't have to work into the weekend to complete that. It's really difficult to put all this stuff over.]]> Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell says he can't commit until his caucus has been briefed on what's in the bill.
"The dilemma we currently have on the proposal that the Majority Leader is referring to is that I believe it is the case that not all members of the finance committee are yet fully aware of what the package may look like, and we also don't have an entire conference that understands it yet, and if were talking about a roughly $80 billion package, no matter how it may be labeled, whether it's another stimulus, whether it's the jobs bill, whether it's a combination of both, I would say to my friend that we need to be able to feel -- my members need to be able to feel like they understand what they are being called upon to support," McConnell said.
Reid says he expects all members will see the bill soon, and will have a chance to offer amendments. But if the Republicans create procedural deadlock, they might be here through the weekend. "I was told an hour ago that the document is completed," Reid said. "I hope that's the case. I do say to everyone in the Senate at this time that we want to work through this in an orderly way, and I want to make sure that both the Republican conference and the Democratic conference have a chance to see the bill."
]]>"Anybody that is serious about fixing the fiscal challenges has to address honestly the issue of entitlements," Rep. Tom Price (R-GA) told me in an interview this afternoon, "and that's what Congressman Ryan has done and I commend him for it.
"There are all sorts of positive ideas out there," Price said. "I think that the roadmap is one of those that we ought to be looking at seriously. Congressman Ryan has introduced it through at least two Congress' now. And it's a very thoughtful and important document that I think positively effects the debate."
]]> The House GOP leadership has a remarkably different take. They have done their best to distance themselves from the plan--though they can't seem to name areas of specific disagreement with it. I asked Price if there's any contradiction between the Republican's demands for fiscal restraint and their unwillingness to saddle up to Ryan's proposal."I don't think so," Price said. "The leaders talked about having a panoply of ideas and options out there to solve the problems we face."
The Congressional Budget Office says that, by slashing entitlements, the Ryan plan would eliminate budget deficits after a few decades. That's politically dangerous territory, though, and, as such, it only has nine co-sponsors. Price says that's not the goal.
"[Ryan]'s goal has not been to get cosponsors. His goal is to put something on the table that would help educate individuals, but also give folks a benchmarks to point to and say this is one way that we can get to balance, and we ought to start talking about it and acting on it now, because it just gets more and more difficult each year."
So why aren't Republican leaders at least nodding positively at the plan?
"That's a decision for each and every member of Congress to make," Price said. "I'd be enthusiastic if I thought there were any folks on the other side of the aisle who were looking at this issue in a serious manner."
]]>"Representative Ryan has made a proposal, significant parts of which I do not agree [with]," said House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) at his weekly press event this afternoon. "However, having said that, it is a serious proposal made by a member in my opinion who has very sincere objectives in mind. And it is a substantive proposal."
I asked Hoyer what he made of the GOP leadership's response to the Ryan plan.
"Mr. Boehner as I understand it, when asked which proposals in the Ryan proposal he [opposed] he couldn't articulate any of them," Hoyer said. "Mr. Ryan is the ranking Republican on the budget committee. If they were the majority, presumably he'd be the chairman of the budget committee. Some of the things he's proposed are controversial."
This is just one of the ways one of the ways Democrats are trying to force Republicans to confront the proposal, which could have long political legs.
"I think you're going to see an aggressive effort from outside groups and others who for a while, we've been all working to defend what we're doing, and that's allowed Republicans to basically run around basically untouched," the aide went on. "For them they have been able to avoid any scrutiny of what they'd do if they were in the majority"
"They're already running around measuring drapes for their new congressional offices," the aide said. "But before that happens we're going to force them to answer whether or not these are ideas that they support, and if they don't support them, what do they plan to do with Social Security, with Medicare, with the deficit."
Why are Democrats confident that this will stick? Why won't Republicans just walk away from Ryan unscathed? Because the conservative base is in charge of things now.
"Many of them are in primaries...this is the sort of thing that will drive a wedge between them and their conservative base," the leadership aide said. "They're going to have to keep an eye on the general...but they've got to get to the general."
And for that reason, you'll see a relentless push on the part of leadership to keep the shadow budget, and the Republicans who can't quite support or oppose it, on the surface.
"I admire [Ryan] for putting a very substantive [proposal] on the table," Hoyer said today. "I think the Republicans, if they don't support his proposal, put something else on the table."
]]>Rasmussen asked this question, which was previously done in December: "Suppose the Tea Party organized itself as a political party. When thinking about the next election for Congress, would you vote for the Republican candidate from your district, the Democratic candidate from your district or the Tea Party candidate from your district?"
Two months ago, the result was Democrats 36%, Tea Party 23%, Republicans 18%. The answer this time around is Democrats 36%, Republicans 25%, and Tea Party 17%.
]]> The pollster's analysis finds that Republicans are getting some voters back, in this hypothetical scenario. However, the gain for the GOP is chiefly among self-described Republican voters -- independents are still up for grabs:Shifts in voting by Republicans and voters not affiliated with either party are key to the Tea Party's new third-place showing. In December, 39% of GOP voters went for their party's candidate, but 33% opted for the Tea Party. Now, 48% of Republicans are sticking with the GOP, and just 23% favor the Tea Party candidate.]]>Among unaffiliated, 33% supported the Tea Party congressional candidate in December. Now, only 23% are voting that way. Interestingly, however, most of that shift seems to go into the undecided category rather than into support for the Republican.
The answer, according to the polls? Mixed. Obama's approval numbers have slipped back to their pre-address levels in the Rasmussen daily tracking poll, but remain slightly up in Gallup's polling. Rasmussen stands by his numbers, but says that they don't take into account the effect the speech has had in Washington, where Obama's post-State of the Union tough guy persona is markedly different from the Democratic hand-wringing over Obama that came after the Senate special election in Massachusetts.
]]> On the day before the speech, Rasmussen's tracking poll showed 46% of Americans approved of the job Obama's been doing, while 53% disapproved. Today's numbers are essentially the same, with Obama drawing a 47% approval and a 53% disapproval. In the intervening days, Obama's approval/disapproval split in the Rasmussen poll peaked at 50/49, the first time it had been that high in months."The speech has a long-term effect on the dialogue in Washington, but not on public opinion," Rasmussen told me yesterday. I asked him to speculate on what caused the dip in his polling. "Speeches rarely have a lasting impact," he said. "Remember, most voters didn't see it and those who did watch were mostly fans of the President before the speech. That's the reality in a fragmented media market where people have a wide variety of options."
Rasmussen said that "the budget news probably overtook the speech as a news story" in the days following the speech, suggesting that Americans' focus on it, whatever it had been, was dissipated by the shift to talk about Obama's budget (not to mention the confusion over the GOP alternative).
Over at Gallup, Obama's numbers are still higher than they were before the State of the Union. On Jan. 27, the day of the speech, Obama's approval/disapproval split at Gallup was 47/46. Today, it's 50/41. Obama's Gallup approval numbers have remained right around 50% in the days since the speech, and his disapprovals have declined pretty steadily to today's 41%. Gallup did not respond to a request for comment on the numbers.
The key distinction between Gallup and Rasmussen last week was the ratings of strong approval and strong disapproval. Rasmussen tracks these figures daily, while Gallup does not. And in the Rasmussen poll, Obama's strong approval number has declined even faster than his overall approval number since the State of the Union, while the strong disapproval has remained steady. The strong approval number peaked on Feb. 1 at 35%. That same day, the strong disapproval number was 39. Today's strong approval/strong disapproval split is 27/40.
Though Gallup doesn't offer a number to contrast the Rasmussen figures in its daily tracking poll, a new Gallup survey out today offers some insight into where Obama's strengths and weaknesses are in the days following the State of the Union. Taken between Feb. 1-3, the poll asked 1,025 adults about their opinion on how Obama is handling 9 specific topic areas, ranging from foreign policy to education.
From Gallup's analysis of the findings: "Americans are most positive about Obama's handing of education and foreign affairs, and least positive about his handling of the federal budget deficit, the economy, healthcare policy, and the situation in Iran."
]]>"Even if they don't go exactly the way he wants them to with the roadmap he gives them a lot of good ideas to pick and choose from," Nussle told me today.
And Nussle (R-IA) knows something about writing Republican spending plans, since he led the Budget Committee during Bush's first term. He most recently served as Bush's Office of Management and Budget director, lost the Iowa governor's race in 2006 and now leads a consulting firm.
Nussle compares the early reaction to the Ryan roadmap to when he and Rep. John Boehner (now minority leader) wrote the Contract with America in 1994.
]]> TPMDC has been talking to conservative groups, former members of Congress and Republican consultants keeping a close eye on the 2010 midterm elections. The Ryan budget, which cuts Social Security and Medicare benefits and creates a Medicare voucher system, also offers broad tax cuts and includes a spending freeze and rescinds unspent funds from the $787 billion economic stimulus plan.Nussle and Republican consultants unwilling to speak on the record say the GOP risks permanently being painted as the "party of no" and as lacking guts to present a real plan for fiscal solvency - something the party says President Obama has failed to do.
Nussle said questions about whether Democrats are fairly painting the Ryan plan as the Republican budget are moot because the GOP earned "a certain amount of criticism for not having a health care proposal."
"This may not be the official line, or the leadership bill, but Ryan is showing the way you can accomplish fiscal responsibility and tax reform and it does show the direction that we want to go in," Nussle said.
The interview comes as budget battle lines are being drawn on Capitol Hill - with House Republicans conflicted about supporting the Ryan plan and Democrats seizing on it as potential political windfall similar to the 2005 fight over privatizing Social Security.
Ryan, the Budget Committee ranking member , and his budget friends are digging in their heels and going more public each day in defense of his dramatic plan to slash Social Security and Medicare to end the deficit. (Who are in the Gang of 10? Find out here.)
Nussle, who considers Ryan a friend, said the congressman is one of the most creative members of the GOP caucus.
Republicans told me it's not that surprising that GOP leaders aren't attaching themselves to the Ryan plan - yet - since members will be fending off diverse challenges from California to Pennsylvania. Fiscal issues play differently across the nation and leadership is reluctant to embrace drastic cuts to popular social programs that are easily caricatured by political enemies.
"They are trying to stave off the attacks they stand for nothing and don't have any plans, but they also trying to be creative and manage campaigns across the country," Nussle said.
He advised Republicans jump on the most politically feasible parts of the Ryan plan and remain on offense.
It leaves the GOP vulnerable to the majority party's attacks similar to the Social Security fight in 2005, and our Democratic sources tell us they plan to exploit the Ryan plan as often as possible.
(TPM's Josh Marshall lays out the stakes for 2010 here.)
Ed. note: This post has been edited from the original.
]]>The Minnesota Independent reports that Bachmann told the Republican Jewish Coalition, at an event last week in Los Angeles:
"I am convinced in my heart and in my mind that if the United States fails to stand with Israel, that is the end of the United States . . . [W]e have to show that we are inextricably entwined, that as a nation we have been blessed because of our relationship with Israel, and if we reject Israel, then there is a curse that comes into play. And my husband and I are both Christians, and we believe very strongly the verse from Genesis [Genesis 12:3], we believe very strongly that nations also receive blessings as they bless Israel. It is a strong and beautiful principle."]]>
The numbers: Perry 39%, Hutchison 28%, Medina 24%, with a ±4.8% margin of error. If no candidate gets over 50% of the vote in the primary on March 2, a runoff will be held on April 13. Hutchison has previously discussed this possibility -- but this poll suggests that there's a chance that she has to work hard to get into the runoff itself.
From the pollster's analysis: "Perry is at 39% to 28% for Kay Bailey Hutchison and 24% for Medina. There are major splits within the race along ideological lines. Perry is at 42% with conservatives, and Medina is now outpolling Hutchison with them by a 25-23 margin. Hutchison cleans up with moderates, leading Perry 49-29, but unfortunately for her prospects they account for only 20% of GOP primary voters."
]]> Hutchison's big problem right now is her very weak showing among self-described conservatives, and a lack of enough moderates. Among the 76% of the likely primary electorate who describe themselves as conservatives, Perry leads with 42%, Medina has 25%, and Hutchison is third with 23%. Among the 20% who call themselves moderates, Hutchison leads with 49%, Perry has 29%, and Medina 14%.Perry would be heavily favored in a runoff against Hutchison, as he is the second choice of Medina-voters by a close 43%-39% margin, and starts out with a lead. So what would happen if Medina were to upset Hutchison, and the runoff were then between Perry and Medina?
"I think Perry would have a strong advantage. Medina is relying on the anti-establishment vote and that will only go so far," PPP communications director Tom Jensen tells TPMDC. "Plus Hutchison is the 'moderate' in the race, relatively speaking, so it's hard to see her folks going for the most right wing candidate. The only way I could see that going differently is if there's so much bad blood between Perry and Hutchison by the end of the race that she tells her supporters to vote for Medina. But that seems pretty unlikely."
]]>Murtha's district is a swing seat, in general terms. It always returned Murtha by comfortable margins, but underneath that were some close races. John Kerry carried it with 51% in 2004, but it gave John McCain a very narrow 49% plurality in 2008 -- the only district in the whole country to actually cross the line from Kerry in 2004 to McCain in 2008.
Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell has 10 days to select a date for the election, which could occur at the same time as the regular Pennsylvania primary, May 18, in order to save the substantial money that a separate election would require. Under Pennsylvania laws, there would not be primaries for the special election -- instead, the parties would select candidates through their own internal processes. Whoever wins the special election would then face the voters again in the regular 2010 general election.
]]> A Republican source in Pennsylvania said that potential GOP candidates for the special election include the two candidates who were already in the race, businessman Tim Burns and 2008 nominee William Russell, as well as a potential new candidate in state Rep. David Reed.The GOP source said that holding the election on primary day could have a secondary effect -- one that would help the Democrats. The statewide primaries for governor and senator are much more contested on the Democratic side than they are for the Republicans, so those races could potentially boost Dem turnout within the 12th District.
That said, the source was still bullish on being able to win the seat: "Depending on the candidates they put up, we feel that's a seat we could win regardless of what happens on primary day. We see these races have been nationalized, and that's one that could be nationalized."
A Democratic source in Pennsylvania said that potential Democratic candidates could include former Lt. Gov. Marc Singel, Murtha's chief of staff John Hugya, and state Sen. John Wozniak. In particular, Wozniak has long been believed to have wanted the seat when it eventually opened up.
The source said that Democrats can hold the seat, in part due to the benefits that the party brought to the district during Murtha's time in office, and also denied the possibility of this seat becoming another situation like the Massachusetts special election -- in which a different senior Democrat, Sen. Ted Kennedy, was replaced by a Republican. "I think it's a different place," said the source. "I don't think you can necessarily draw all those parallels between a congressional district in southwestern Pennsylvania and a big statewide election in Massachusetts. I think there are more local issues in play."
The potential does exist that whoever wins the seat could end up holding it for a long time. Murtha himself first won the seat in 1974, in a special election after the death of GOP Rep. John Saylor -- who had also first won the seat in a 1949 special election, to replace the deceased previous congressman.
]]>"Congress is weighing options and hearing plenty of special interest voices telling them to give up," reads an email to supporters from OFA Director Mitch Stewart sent this morning.
They need to understand that their constituents want them to keep fighting. So today, we're relaunching our Health Care Action Center to give you all the tools and information you need to fight for reform. At the Action Center, you can make calls, write letters, speak out in your community, and weigh in directly with Congress. There's information about what the President stands for, and personal stories that show why reform is so important. So check it out today: http://my.barackobama.com/Action Many of our senators and representatives are working overtime to gather support for a final bill and pass reform, and they should know we're standing with them. And the rest need to understand their constituents still demand action. We're so close to real reform -- we can't stop now.]]> As an arm of the DNC, the move suggests that, despite the fears of some reformers, the Democratic party infrastructure, from the White House on down, remains committed to reform.
OFA first launched its health care action center in June, and organized health care rallies in swing districts across the country. They received some criticism in August, though, when their activism efforts were overshadowed by Tea Partier town hall protests.
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