
A provision in this summer's debt limit bill required both the House and Senate to vote on a version -- any version -- of a constitutional amendment requiring the federal government to maintain a balanced budget.
Today was the day in the Senate, and as it turns out two balanced budget amendments went down in flames. One, crafted by Sen. Mark Udall (D-CO), was designed to give Dems who wanted to vote for some kind of BBA a vehicle to support. It would have explicitly protected Social Security from being raided to balance the budget, and a ban on cutting taxes for millionaires unless there's a budget surplus. It failed 21-79 -- far short of the two-thirds supermajority required to pass a constitutional amendment.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)A Constitutional amendment that would forbid Congress from running deficits failed in the House Friday, thanks to broad opposition by Democrats, who recognized it as a GOP messaging vehicle, and a tool they'd use to roll back safety net programs like Medicare and Social Security.
The final vote, was 261 - 165. Two-thirds of both chambers must agree to adopt any amendment to the Constitution. Both the House and the Senate are required under the terms of the debt limit law to hold a vote on a version of the BBA.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)House Republicans are painting Democrats like Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD) as hypocrites for opposing a Constitutional Balanced Budget Amendment set for a Friday floor vote -- even though they voted to send an identical amendment off to the states for ratification in 1995.
In his weekly briefing with reporters Tuesday, Hoyer offered a comprehensive defense of his change of heart and argued that Republicans have proved too irresponsible to steward a country that is required by its Constitution to maintain balanced budgets every year.
"Since I voted in January of '95 a lot of things have happened," Hoyer said.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Congress is busy. It has to extend federal funding for all federal agencies before November 18, or else the government will shut down, and the deficit Super Committee has to recommend a big package of budget cuts to the House and Senate by November 23, or set in motion dramatic automatic spending cuts to defense programs and Medicare providers. But it's still suffering a hangover from the debt limit fight. And so this week House GOP leaders will fulfill one of the terms of the debt limit law, and appease some conservatives, by holding a vote on a Constitutional Balanced Budget Amendment.
There's a bit of a strife among Republicans -- and even among some Democrats -- over the details of such an amendment. But almost any version would constitute a radical policy shift for the country, and threaten key safety net programs as the country ages and the cost of health care soars. It would lead to dramatic swings in U.S. fiscal policy, and at a time of high unemployment, would cost the economy dearly.
Don't believe me, here's what analysts at Macroeconomic Advisers said about it.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)After his members dealt him a stunning defeat Thursday, and forced him, for the second time to pull and amend his plan to raise the debt limit, House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) has figured a way out.
Once-reluctant Republicans -- including Reps. Jeff Flake (R-AZ), Jeff Landry (R-LA), and Phil Gingrey (R-GA) -- streamed out of a House GOP caucus meeting Friday morning to announce they'd changed their minds, and will now support Boehner's bill.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)
The Republicans' rightly-maligned Cut, Cap, and Balance plan was set up to fail in the U.S. Senate. But it wasn't meant to happen at the exact same time as the House GOP held a press conference to rally in support of the bill, with the deadline for raising the debt limit now just over a week away.
But that's exactly what happened Friday, when House Republicans cut short a press conference, and beat the gavel on a vote to table Cut, Cap, and Balance -- a vote which was playing out right in front of their faces on closed circuit TV.
But before departing, House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH), ever sensitive to the needs of his conservative caucus, told reporters, there was "never an agreement," with President Obama to raise the debt limit. "Frankly," he said, "[we're] not close to an agreement."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)President Obama's quest to reach a historic budget agreement with House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) fell into deep doubt Thursday, after a noisy rebellion by Senate Democrats over reports that Obama might hand Republicans the farm on discretionary and entitlement spending, with few or no guarantees that the GOP will accept any new tax revenues.
[TPM SLIDESHOW: Debt Ceiling Negotiations At The White House]
If the initial leak was meant to serve as a trial balloon, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) shot it out of the sky the same day, after a contentious meeting with White House budget director Jack Lew. A Senate leadership aide told me that Reid will set the wheels in motion to pass a backup plan no later than Sunday unless a deal that can pass both chambers is agreed to before then. And the administration, clearly in damage control mode, summoned Democratic leaders up Pennsylvania Ave late in the day to clear the air, nurse wounds, and lay out a possible framework for a grand bargain to the skeptical crowd.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)In a heavily partisan vote Tuesday, the House of Representatives passed the Cut, Cap, and Balance Act -- a palatable-sounding piece of legislation that, if enacted, would slash federal programs deeply, and restrict dramatically the government's ability to do anything constructive for the country.
It also would graft those requirements into the Constitution, on the threat of a catastrophic debt default. Now leaders of both parties will have to scramble to make sure that doesn't happen.
The legislation, described in depth here, would make raising the debt limit contingent on both deep immediate spending cuts, and the passage, by supermajorities in Congress, of a Constitutional amendment that would kick federal spending down to historic lows. The so-called Balanced Budget Amendment would force the government to achieve fiscal balance by making deeper and deeper cuts -- because raising taxes would, by Constitutional fiat, require two-thirds of the members of both the House and Senate to agree to do so.
The final vote was 234-190 with nine Republicans voting no, and five Democrats voting yes. The Republicans voting with the Dems were Reps. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), Paul Broun (R-GA), Francisco Canseco (R-TX), Scott Desjarles (R-TN), Morgan Griffith (R-VA), Walter Jones (R-NC), Connie Mack (R-FL), Ron Paul (R-TX), and Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA). The Dems voting with the GOP were Blue Dogs Reps. Dan Boren (D-OK), Jim Cooper (D-TN), Jim Matheson (D-UT), Mike McIntyre (D-NC), and Heath Shuler (R-NC). Two Republicans and seven Democrats did not vote.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The House GOP will lay down its marker late Tuesday with a dead-on-arrival plan called Cut, Cap, and Balance. It has dim prospects in the Senate and President Obama has threatened to veto it. So what's next?
[TPM SLIDESHOW: Debt Negotiations At The White House]
Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) claims that this plan -- radical though it is -- is the only plan that can pass the House of Representatives. At least for now.
"There are lots of ideas out there from Democrats and Republicans, but guess what?" Boehner told reporters at a Tuesday press conference in the Capitol. "None of them have a majority. This one has a majority."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)If Republicans had their way, the Treasury Department wouldn't be granted the authority to issue new debt unless and until Congress -- two-thirds of both chambers -- sent a radically conservative Constitutional amendment off to the states for ratification.
That's what they'll spend Tuesday proving to voters -- particularly influential conservative leaders, who will be watching closely. In the House they'll pass legislation called the Cut, Cap, and Balance Act which imposes swift, deep spending cuts, and promises to raises the debt limit into 2013 if and only if scores of Democrats agree to a version of the Balanced Budget Amendment that basically forbids tax increases, and holds spending below historic lows.
That means the functional end of popular entitlement programs -- and that ain't gonna happen. So then it's on to another plan.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)To understand why Republicans won't raise the debt limit until after they hold a symbolic vote on a plan to squeeze the government down to a size that would require it to gut popular entitlement programs, it's important to realize it's not just because of the political perks. Powerful conservative interest groups are demanding they vote for it. And at the same time they're warning the GOP against voting for the only viable option currently on the table for avoiding a catastrophic debt default.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Tuesday, the House of Representatives will vote on, and likely pass, a conservative Republican plan called "Cut, Cap, and Balance." The package will include some immediate, as-yet unspecified spending cuts, a statutory cap to keep spending below 18 percent of GDP, and a promised separate vote on a Constitutional amendment that requires Congress to maintain a balanced budget, but essentially forbids any future tax increases.
It would also raise the debt ceiling through 2012 -- an ancillary benefit for Republicans who are looking for any way to pin the consequences of a debt default, should one happen, on Democrats. Indeed, the GOP feigned shock and anger Monday when the White House, as expected, issued an official veto threat -- turns out President Obama's the one threatening to wreak havoc on the country.
Of course, later in the week, the Senate will follow suit, and there Cut, Cap, and Balance is expected to fail.
For Republicans, it's the perfect alignment of popular sounding policies -- "spending cuts" a "balanced budget" and, finally, an end to this debt limit brinksmanship -- minus the a scintilla of accountability or transparency. And for Republicans trying to make nice with conservative activists, it will give them cover to later vote for a much more modest plan to cut some spending, raise the debt limit, avoid default. But the details have been intentionally obscured by most conservatives, and they reveal the plan to be the most radical fiscal policy the GOP has aligned behind in years -- one that makes the Republican's current budget proposal to phase out Medicare appear moderate by comparison.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Barring some unexpected and dramatic twist, come Monday the country will still be hurtling towards a potentially calamitous default on its national debt.
The only real development heading into the weekend was symbolic. Boehner agreed that the House will vote to raise the debt limit -- but only as part of a broader bill that would slash spending dramatically, institute a cap on federal expenditures, and call for a vote on a radical Constitutional amendment requiring balanced federal budgets and making tax increases functionally impossible. This plan is DOA in the Senate. But in transactional terms, it's meant to appease conservatives who probably won't vote to raise the debt limit under bipartisan circumstances.
Still, Congress has to actually raise the debt limit, and there are four possible avenues to getting that done on the table right now. Here's a description of each, in reverse order of likelihood.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Whatever the ultimate outcome of the debt limit fight, the theatrics will continue in the House of Representatives for another week or so.
Scores of House Republicans say they won't vote to raise the debt limit unless a Constitutional balanced budget amendment has been sent off to the states for ratification. And so whatever Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and other Congressional leaders decide about the real path ahead, he'll hold votes next week on a major spending cut and spending cap plan that includes a hike in the debt ceiling, and, separately, on a balanced budget amendment. The latter would require a two-thirds vote in both the House and Senate and, in its current form, stands little chance of passing either chamber.
The votes themselves will put some political pressure on Democrats to support the nominally popular balanced budget amendment, and will allow Republicans to claim they voted to raise the debt limit in the event that the government runs out of borrowing authority. But the so-called "cut, cap, and balance" approach is dead on arrival in the Senate.
At a Friday press conference after a meeting with the GOP caucus, Boehner let slip, subtly, that the plan will go nowhere.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Burned by the fact that their prescription for reducing the deficit and increasing the national borrowing limit either can't pass in Congress or doesn't cut spending enough to warrant, in their minds, a significant debt ceiling hike, House Republicans returned to the Capitol Tuesday to ratchet up their demands, and shirk responsibility for avoiding default.
"Where's the President's plan?" asked House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) at a press stakeout after a GOP caucus meeting. "When's he going to lay his cards on the table? This debt limit increase is his problem."
This is a massive departure for Boehner and the GOP, who before the debt limit brinksmanship became central to U.S. politics, regularly acknowledged that raising the debt limit was his, and Congress', imperative. Today, he and other caucus leaders answered President Obama's demand that the GOP figure out a way to raise the debt limit through 2012 by offering to toss non-starter Republican wish-list items back into the negotiating mix.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Rep. Paul Broun (R-GA) found a novel way to out-conservative even Tea Party members demanding the debt limit never be raised: he suggested the ceiling be lowered instead.
In an op-ed in the National Review Online, Broun urged members to sign onto legislation that would reduce the debt ceiling by $1 trillion next year, forcing Congress to go beyond balancing the budget and instead find a huge surplus, which experts suggest would be tough given that a sudden $2 trillion plus total cut to federal spending would plunge the economy into a deep recession.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Conservative anti-tax group Club For Growth is warning Republican lawmakers that when it comes to debt talks, it's balanced budget or bust.
The White House is reportedly discussing a broad deal with the House GOP that could reduce the deficit by $4 trillion over the next decade with as much as $1 trillion coming from new revenues. But a spokesman for the group, Barney Keller, told TPM that they were married to Sen. Jim DeMint's (R-SC) "Cut, Cap, and Balance" proposal, which demands that Republicans make the successful passage of a Balanced Budget Amendment a precondition for any deal.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) says Republican leaders are kidding themselves if they think they'll prevail in their bid to keep new tax revenues out of a grand bargain to lift the nation's borrowing limit. And to prove it, he says, look no further than the House of Representatives.
[TPM SLIDESHOW: Battle Over The Budget: Behind The Scenes At The White House]
"Speaker Boehner should realize we're in a different world than we were even a few months ago," Schumer told reporters at the Capitol Wednesday. "He needs Democrats to pass a bill through the House."
A number of Republican House members have said they won't vote to raise the debt limit at all, or only under certain, highly partisan circumstances. Schumer's math suggests that means he'll need Democratic votes to pass a viable debt limit bill, and that means new revenues will have to be part of the equation.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)An influential conservative activist is explicitly calling on Republicans to hold U.S. creditworthiness hostage until Democrats agree to pass a constitutional amendment requiring Congress to slash federal spending until the budget is balanced.
Erick Erickson -- a CNN contributor and founder of the conservative website Red State -- says Republicans should refuse to raise the nation's borrowing limit, likely triggering a catastrophic debt default, until a two-thirds majority in both the House and Senate sign on to the Balanced Budget Amendment.
"Make it clear that until you do get the votes necessary for passage you will obstruct and block an increase in the debt ceiling," Erickson wrote in a Wednesday morning post. "Hold the debt ceiling hostage. If the Democrats want the debt ceiling raised, they need to send [the BBA] out to the states for ratification. They can fight to stop it there. But do this for me -- draw a line in the sand. You force a vote and then another vote and then another vote until you get the two-thirds needed in both houses and don't you dare give up fighting against the debt ceiling increase until you get that two-thirds vote. The rules in this fight must be different. You must keep blocking until they give you what you want."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Imagine the following: President Obama and Speaker John Boehner emerge next week after a series of tense, closed-door meetings to announce a historic deal that cuts the deficit by $4 trillion over the next decade -- more than anyone thought possible. Additional goodies are thrown in that Republicans have been clamoring for as well: an enforceable cap on spending and a vote (symbolic, of course) on a balanced budget amendment. The breakthrough? Republicans agreed to raise $1 trillion in new revenue, mostly through closing various tax loopholes and credits but also by allowing the absolute highest end of the Bush tax cuts -- those affecting millionaires only -- to expire next year.
But that's not good enough for the Tea Party movement, whose leaders say the GOP sold them out. Activists cry bloody murder. Primaries are threatened. Michele Bachmann stages a sit-in. A week of protests are quickly organized outside the Capitol.
But then a funny thing happens...nothing. A large number of Freshman Republicans vote against the bill in protest, but it passes with near unanimous Democratic support. There's considerable grumbling in the press until the next week, when Obama proposes something conservatives hate, perhaps a new executive order slowing deportations, and the base rallies to stop him. Polls show conservative Republicans as unified as ever as another round of dismal economic news puts the White House within reach, and soon everyone is too focused on 2012 to care about the last fight. In such a scenario, can the Tea Party remain a credible force?
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Underscoring the challenge Republican leaders in Congress will face when they have to round up votes to increase the debt limit -- and they will have to increase the debt limit -- the most influential conservative in their party is telling his colleagues, 'if you vote for it, you'll lose.'
"Based on what I can see around the country, not only are those individuals gone, but I would suspect the Republican Party would be set back many years," Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) told ABC when asked about the looming vote.
DeMint is whipping Republicans to support a highly controversial Constitutional amendment requiring the government to maintain a balanced budget, and making tax increases functionally impossible as the price of voting to raise the debt limit. If not?
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)In a private conference call with a handful of university students across the country, GOP Presidential hopeful -- and President Obama's former Ambassador to China -- Jon Huntsman argued in support of one of the most far-reaching, controversial elements of the conservative political agenda.
As first reported in a broader piece by the Huffington Post, Huntsman argued in favor of a constitutional amendment requiring the federal government to maintain a balanced budget -- an innocuous-sounding, but radical plan pushed by Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) and numerous other congressional conservatives.
"We're going to have to fight for a balanced budget amendment," Huntsman said. "Every governor in this country has a balanced budget amendment. It keeps everybody honest. It's the best safeguard imaginable."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Wealthy Political Newcomers Are Spending Big
The Associated Press reports: "In the midst of one of the worst recessions in decades, a host of former corporate leaders are spending millions in their quest for elective office, using their personal wealth to push past the political machinery and their own lack of experience.
Obama's Day Ahead
President Obama will welcome the Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints to the White House at 9:05 a.m. ET. He will depart from the White House at 9:45 a.m. ET, and depart from Andrews Air Force Base at 10 a.m. ET, and will arrive at 1:05 p.m. ET in Austin, Texas. He will deliver remarks at a 2:05 p.m. ET Democratic National Committee fundraiser. He will then deliver remarks on higher education and the economy at the University of Austin at 3 p.m. ET. He will depart from Austin at 4:30 p.m. ET, arriving at 5:20 p.m. ET in Dallas, Texas, and will attend a 6:25 p.m. ET Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee fundraiser. He will depart from Dallas at 7:35 p.m. ET, will arrive back at Andrews Air Force Base at 10:15 p.m. ET, and back at the White House at 10:30 p.m. ET.

