FAA

Reid Letter To Boehner Urges Swift FAA Fix Despite Congressional Recess

Susan Crabtree | August 3, 2011, 6:20PM

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has fired off a letter to House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) offering an urgent compromise on Congress' latest impasse: the partial shutdown of the Federal Aviation Administration.

The move comes just hours after President Barack Obama slammed the imbroglio for creating a "lose-lose-lose situation" and urged Congress to resolve the matter before the end of the week.

Complicating matters is the fact that many lawmakers are about to leave DC, or have left already, as this year's Congressional recess has now begun.

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Debt ceiling

Obama Gets Sarcastic About Debt Ceiling Fight (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | July 22, 2011, 12:20PM

President Barack Obama

COLLEGE PARK, MD -- President Obama revelled in being just a few miles from the DC border at a town hall meeting at the University of Maryland here Friday. Opening the hour-long chat with students and other voters, the president made a sarcastic joke about the several weeks he's spent trying to hammer out a deal on the debt ceiling with Republicans.

"I have to say, it's nice to get out of Washington," Obama said, as the crowd in this Capital suburb laughed. Then came more sarcasm.

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Medicare

Female Democratic Senators Attack GOP Budget's Harsh Toll On Women

Brian Beutler | May 25, 2011, 9:20AM

Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA)

Female Democratic senators are returning to a tactic that served them well when Republicans threatened a government shutdown over federal funding of abortion. They're making the case that the House GOP budget, and the male Republican legislators who are advocating its policies in debt limit talks with Democrats, are using the deficit as an excuse to pursue an anti-woman agenda.

"[T]hey have put one thing above anything else: cutting health care for women," said Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA). "Last month they almost shut down the entire federal government in an attempt to cut off funding for health care programs for women and girls

Joining Murray were five of her female colleagues, and two male Democratic senators, Dick Blumenthal (D-CT), and Benjamin Cardin (D-MD). Together, they ran through a long list of ways the GOP budget undermines women.

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John Ensign

Senate Ethics Refers Ensign Case to DOJ, FEC

Susan Crabtree | May 12, 2011, 2:34PM

Sen. John Ensign (R-NV)

The Senate Ethics Committee has uncovered extensive evidence that former Sen. John Ensign (R-NV) and others broke U.S. law by trying to cover up an affair Ensign had with a campaign aide, the wife of one of his top Senate staffers.

The panel has forwarded the evidence of criminal activities to the Department of Justice for further investigation, which it is required to do in any investigation that turns up evidence of criminal wrongdoing, Sens. Barbara Boxer (D-CA), who chairs the ethics panel, and Johnny Isakson (R-GA), said in letters to the DOJ and FEC released Thursday along with a final report from a special prosecutor handling the case.

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John Ensign

Boxer And Isakson To Address Ensign Ethics Case

Susan Crabtree | May 12, 2011, 1:25PM

Sen. John Ensign (R-NV)

In a rare move, leaders of the Senate Ethics Committee will take to the Senate floor this afternoon to inform their colleagues about their two-year investigation into the sex scandal and legal issues surrounding it that lead Sen. John Ensign (R-NV) to resign earlier this month.

Sens. Barbara Boxer (D-CA), who chairs the ethics panel, and Johnny Isakson (R-GA), the ranking member, are scheduled to give a floor speech about their findings in the case against the Nevada Republican who admitted to having an affair with a former campaign aide, Cynthia Hampton, and then helping her husband, also a top aide, establish a brief lobbying career.

Formal accusations and charges have focused on the great lengths -- and potentially illegal steps -- Ensign took to keep the affair quiet, including having his parents (wealthy Las Vegas casino owners) pay the Hamptons $96,000 in hush money.

Ensign was also accused of knowingly helping Doug Hampton violate the one-year lobbying ban by helping him set up a short-lived job on K Street.

If the ethics committee has found any evidence of criminal wrongdoing, they must forward that evidence to the Justice Department for further investigation.

In March federal prosecutors charged Doug Hampton with seven counts of violating conflict-of-interest laws. In December Ensign said the Justice Department had told him he was no longer a target in its probe, but shortly after the Ethics Committee's hiring of a special counsel to continue its investigation, Ensign said he would retire instead of seeking reelection.

The Federal Election Commission said the $96,000 payments did not violate campaign-finance law because they were paid in installments to the Hamptons and their children in amounts allowed under U.S. tax law.

Still insisting he did nothing wrong, in announcing his resignation in April, Ensign said he decided it was time to go after the Ethics Committee named a special prosecutor to continue looking into the matter, even though he believed the Justice Department had dropped its case and the FEC has dismissed the accusations against him.

Labor

Top Union Presses Senators To Ditch Union-Busting Push By House GOP

Brian Beutler | April 20, 2011, 12:43PM

A powerful union is lobbying Democratic and Republican congressional negotiators to make sure they don't curtail worker rights when they finalize new FAA legislation.

A conference committee composed of a bipartisan group of senators and congressmen will soon sort out differences between two different versions of the bill. But the House bill contains a provision that would make it much more difficult for airline and rail workers to form unions. More on that provision here -- it would reinstate old rules that count abstentions as "no" votes in union elections, thus stacking the deck against pro-union workers.

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Government Shutdown

Female Democratic Senators Accuse GOP of Using Shutdown to Hurt Women

Benjy Sarlin | April 8, 2011, 2:49PM

Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA)

Nine Democratic senators, all women, slammed House Republicans at a press conference Friday for threatening to shut down the government over provisions that would prevent funding for Planned Parenthood.

"The numbers have been agreed to, but it's an opportunity for the right wing in the House to really sock it to women,"Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) said. "I don't usually use this language, but I really believe this is true."

The event was the latest by Democrats to draw attention to the anti-abortion policy riders, which they claim are the final sticking point in negotiations. Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) has denied they are the only issue, but has not said they would be left off the table in a final deal. Lawmakers at the press conference noted that federal funding for abortion was already banned by the Hyde Amendment and that Planned Parenthood's services were widely used for other health care purposes, including testing for cancer and providing contraceptive.

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) told reporters that Republicans are "playing to their extremist supporters who care more about hurting women's health than reducing the deficit."

Democratic leaders, including Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), are aggressively playing up Republican intransigence on the policy riders. A small handful of Republican and conservative leaders have publicly suggested they're uncomfortable holding up negotiations over the issue.

Health Care

How The GOP Plan To Kill Medicare And Medicaid Would Work

Brian Beutler and Benjy Sarlin | April 5, 2011, 9:26AM

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI)

On Tuesday, House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI) will introduce a 10-year budget proposal that would over time eliminate Medicare and Medicaid and replace them with less generous health care plans for the elderly, poor, and disabled. The reviews are in, from experts and advocates, and it looks like there's gonna be a fight.

Phasing Out Medicare

Starting with Medicare, Ryan's critics attack his plan as a step back from the single-payer system that, despite looming financing problems, serves the elderly very well.

"There ought to be a TV show called 'That 90s Show,'" said David Cutler, a Harvard economics professor and one-time adviser to President Obama. "What Paul Ryan has in mind is to recreate the managed care era, do for the elderly what we rejected for ourselves."

Republicans will be loath to admit this, but the system Ryan has in mind for Medicare works a lot like dread 'ObamaCare,' too. He developed it in concert with Alice Rivlin, who used to run the Office of Management and Budget for President Clinton. They propose giving the elderly a menu of private insurance options (think the health care exchange) and then subsidizing those plans based on need (think insurance credits). Thus, in addition to all the questions Republicans will have to answer about the plan from experts and stakeholders, they'll have to explain why the health care law is terrible for working adults, but a great idea for retirees.

"I keep talking to Paul and trying to convince him of that," Rivlin told Ezra Klein recently. "But even if he agreed with me, he couldn't say so."

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Government Shutdown

Dems Press Boehner To Suspend Congressional Pay In Event Of Government Shutdown

Brian Beutler | March 31, 2011, 5:10PM

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH), House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)

Late Update: The bill will be brought to the floor for a vote Friday, according to GOP leadership. "The House GOP agrees, which is why a bill will be brought to the floor tomorrow to do just that," says Brad Dayspring spokesman for House Majority Leader Eric Cantor.

Original Story:

Democrats in both the House and Senate are pressing Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) to take up legislation that would suspend congressional pay in the event of a government shutdown.

"Given the fact that a shutdown will cause real harm to millions of Americans, Congress must accept the same consequences if it fails to keep the government functioning," reads a letter from Rep. Jim Matheson (D-UT) and Rep. Bill Owens (D-NY), cosigned by over two dozen Dems, to Boehner. "The House must be given an opportunity to vote on clean bill that leaves no doubt that Members of Congress cannot receive a paycheck while the rest of the nation suffers from inaction on government funding for this year."

Just yesterday, over a dozen Dem senators sent a similar letter to Boehner. Weeks ago, the Senate unanimously passed legislation to precisely this effect. And now, both House and Senate Dems are asking for a vote on that bill in the House.

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2012 elections

Poll: Obama Barely Leads Trump In 2012 Match-Ups

Jon Terbush | February 22, 2011, 12:42PM

Donald Trump and President Barack Obama

Donald Trump could conceivably fire Obama.

That's the weak position Obama finds himself in heading into the 2012 election, according to a Newsweek/Daily Beast poll of likely voters released today that shows the President tied or barely ahead of his potential GOP challengers to his reelection bid.

Obama and Mike Huckabee are tied at 46% apiece in the poll, while Mitt Romney trailed Obama by a slim two-point margin, 49% to 47%. And yes, eccentric real estate tycoon and reality TV host Donald Trump also trailed Obama by just two points, 43% to 41%. That's well within the poll's 3.5% margin of error.

Obama did, however, hold a decent edge on Sarah Palin, leading her 51 to 40%.

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Abortion

GOP Backs Massive Tax Increase To Phase Out Abortion Coverage By Private Insurers

Brian Beutler | February 9, 2011, 8:35AM

Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and John Boehner (R-OH)

The House GOP continues to place its heaviest emphasis on fighting abortion rights, and they've taken a lot of heat for it. Progressives, Democrats, pro-choice groups, and others have spared little criticism, but they've focused most heavily on three distinct lines: the fact that Republicans are ignoring job-creation as a priority; the fact that one of their pieces of legislation would allow hospitals to refuse to perform an abortion on a dying woman; and the fact that, until recently at least, the GOP wanted to limit tax-payer support for abortion to exclude incidences of non-forcible rape.

Here's another one: The GOP's plan to ban tax-payer money from funding abortions includes giant tax hikes for businesses.

More specifically, it would eliminate tax incentives on employer-provided health care benefits if those benefits cover abortion as a medical procedure.

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CA-SEN

Call Her 'Senator' -- Boxer Turns Back Fiorina's Challenge

Eric Kleefeld | November 2, 2010, 11:51PM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Republican candidate Carly Fiorina

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) has dodged the Republican tide, defeating former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina.

With 13% of precincts reporting, Boxer leads by 49%-45%, and has been projected as the winner by NBC News and the Los Angeles Times.

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2010 elections

Senate In The Balance: TPM's Look At The 9 Key Races Still Up For Grabs

Eric Kleefeld | November 1, 2010, 5:06PM

Clockwise from top left: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO), Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI), Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA)

As we head into Election Day, one thing is clear for Senate Democrats: It's going to be bad. Seriously. There's no going anywhere but down. But how far down?

It's unlikely that Democrats will manage to lose their majority outright, since they're starting at the high mark of 59 seats. But things sure look rough. Open seats in Indiana and North Dakota seem to be gone already, along with incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas. Republican seats that seemed like potential Dem pickups much earlier in the cycle -- North Carolina and open seats in Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Ohio -- are clearly out of reach.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Stranger Than Fiction? TPM Casts The 2010 Midterms Movie]

The few bright spots for Democrats are open seats in Connecticut and Delaware, where very weak Republican candidates Linda McMahon and Christine O'Donnell have spared the Dems from total humiliation. So with that in mind, let's take a look at some other key races to watch tomorrow.

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CA-SEN

SurveyUSA Poll: Brown Up 11, Boxer Up 8 In CA Races

Marc Kilstein | November 1, 2010, 3:59PM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and California Attorney General Jerry Brown

On the heels of a more-narrow PPP survey released this morning, SurveyUSA is out with new numbers on the California Senate and gubernatorial contests that suggest Democrats are well-positioned to take both races.

In the Senate race, Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer is found ahead of Republican former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina 46%-38%. When SurveyUSA looked at this race last week, Boxer led by five points, 45%-40%.

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CA-GOV

PPP Poll: Brown And Boxer Stay Narrowly Ahead In California

Eric Kleefeld | November 1, 2010, 11:07AM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and California Attorney General Jerry Brown

The new survey of California from Public Policy Polling (D) shows Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jerry Brown and Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer holding on to narrow leads in their respective races against Republican businesswomen Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina.

In the gubernatorial race: Brown 51%, Whitman 46%. In the previous PPP poll from a week ago, Brown had a wider lead of 53%-42%. The TPM Poll Average of the gubernatorial race gives Brown a lead of 49.6%-42.0%.

In the Senate race: Boxer 50%, Fiorina 46%. The previous PPP numbers from a week ago gave Boxer a lead of 52%-43%. The TPM Poll Average of the Senate race gives Boxer a lead of 48.1%-44.1%.

The survey of likely voters has a ±3.3% margin of error.

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2010 elections

CNN Poll: Brown And Boxer Ahead In California

Eric Kleefeld | October 27, 2010, 6:02PM

California Attorney General and gubernatorial candidate Jerry Brown

The new CNN poll of California provides further corroboration that Democrats Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer are on track in their respective gubernatorial and Senate races.

The gubernatorial numbers: Brown 51%, Republican Meg Whitman 44%. In the previous poll from a month ago, Brown led by 52%-43%. The TPM Poll Average has Brown ahead by 49.0%-41.3%.

The Senate numbers: Boxer 50%, Republican Carly Fiorina 45%. In the previous poll from a month ago, Boxer led by 52%-43%. The TPM Poll Average has Boxer ahead by 47.4%-43.4%.

The survey of likely voters has a ±3.5% margin of error.

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2010 elections

SurveyUSA: Brown And Boxer Ahead In California

Eric Kleefeld | October 27, 2010, 11:40AM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and California Attorney General Jerry Brown

Yet another poll of California, this one from SurveyUSA, has Democrats Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer continuing to lead in their respective gubernatorial and Senate races.

In the gubernatorial race, Brown leads Republican Meg Whitman by 46%-38%. In the previous poll from last week, Brown led by 47%-40%. The TPM Poll Average gives Brown a lead of 48.7%-40.8%.

In the Senate race, the incumbent Senator Boxer leads Republican Carly Fiorina by 45%-40%. In the previous poll from last week, Boxer had a narrower lead of 46%-44%. The TPM Poll Average has Boxer ahead by 47.2%-43.1%.

The survey of likely voters has a ±4.1% margin of error.

CA-SEN

PPP Poll: Dems Increasing Leads In CA-SEN And CA-GOV Races

Marc Kilstein | October 26, 2010, 4:43PM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and California Attorney General Jerry Brown

On the heels of two newly released surveys of the California Senate and gubernatorial races, another set of numbers has come out, extending the narrative that Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer and state Attorney General Jerry Brown are pulling away in their respective races.

The poll, conducted by PPP, finds Boxer leading Republican former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina in the state's Senate race 52%-43%, while Brown is found up on Republican former eBay CEO Meg Whitman 53%-42% in the state's gubernatorial race. When PPP last looked at these races on September 16, Boxer led 50%-42%, while Brown was up by a narrower 47%-42% advantage.

The TPM Poll Average finds Boxer on top of the Senate race 47.5%-43.4%. In the gubernatorial contest, the TPM Poll Average shows Brown leading Whitman 48.8%-41.2%.

The margin of error of the newest statewide survey is ±3.9 percentage points.

For more on the Senate race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here. For more on the gubernatorial race, click here.

CA-SEN

Suffolk Poll: Boxer Up 9, Brown Up 8 In CA Races

Marc Kilstein | October 26, 2010, 4:29PM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and California Attorney General Jerry Brown

Suffolk University has released a new California statewide poll and the Democrats appear to be in control of both the Senate and gubernatorial races.

In the Senate contest, Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer is leading Republican former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina 52%-43%, with Libertarian Gail Lightfoot earning 2%, American Independent candidate Edward Noonan polling at 1%, and Green Party candidate Duane Roberts pulling in 1% as well.

In the gubernatorial race, Democratic state Attorney General Jerry Brown is up on Republican former eBay CEO Meg Whitman 50%-42%, with a slew of third party candidates polling in the single digits (American Independent candidate Chelene Nightingale at 2%, while Green Party candidate Laura Wells, Libertarian Dale Ogden, and Peace and Freedom candidate Carlos Alvarez are all at 1%).

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2010 elections

Fox News Poll: Brown Extends Lead In CA-GOV, Boxer Holds Steady In Senate Race

Eric Kleefeld | October 26, 2010, 10:31AM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and California Attorney General Jerry Brown

The new Fox News poll of California shows Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jerry Brown and incumbent Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer staying ahead in their races.

In the gubernatorial race: Brown 50%, Republican Meg Whitman 41%. In the previous poll from last week, Brown led by a slightly narrower 48%-43% -- in line with a recent trend of Brown expanding his lead in all the polls. The TPM Poll Average for the gubernatorial race gives Brown a lead of 48.4%-41.1%.

In the Senate race: Boxer 48%, Republican Carly Fiorina 44%. In the previous poll from last week, Boxer led by an identical 48%-44%, in line with other pollsters that have shown Boxer with a narrow but steady lead. The TPM Poll Average for the Senate race gives Boxer a lead of 47.1%-43.4%.

The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error.

ed. note: This post has been edited from the original, correcting a typo in the numbers.

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CA-SEN

Fiorina Ad: California's Hopes Are 'Crushed' By Boxer (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 25, 2010, 4:33PM

Ad from candidate for U.S. Senate Carly Fiorina (R-CA), "Crushed"

Republican candidate Carly Fiorina has a new ad in the California Senate race, with an especially bleak attack against incumbent Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer: California is a hopeless wasteland, populated by indigent people trudging through a Steinbeckian dust bowl with no jobs in sight -- and it's all Boxer's fault.

"Barbara Boxer failed to protect California jobs," the announcer says. "Praises the stimulus plan, while two-and-a-quarter million Californians are unemployed. Trillions in deficits, billions in taxes. Our hopes crushed by Washington. The legacy of Barbara Boxer.

"We can change Washington. But not unless we change the people we send there."

The TPM Poll Average gives Boxer a lead of 47.0%-43.3%.

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CA-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Dem Boxer Leads By 2 In CA-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | October 22, 2010, 2:40PM

Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Senate candidate Carly Fiorina (R-CA)

A new Rasmussen survey of the California Senate race finds Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer leading Republican former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina 48%-46%.

When Rasmussen took a look at this race last week, Boxer was up three points, 49%-46%. An October 18 SurveyUSA poll had the Democrat up two points as well, 46%-44%, while an October 17 Public Policy Institute of California poll found her five points ahead of the Republican nominee.

The TPM Poll Average shows Boxer leading the contest 46.7%-43.5%. The margin of error for the newest survey is ±4.0 percentage points.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

2010 elections

PPIC Poll: Brown And Boxer Ahead In California

Eric Kleefeld | October 21, 2010, 10:29AM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and California Attorney General Jerry Brown

The new statewide survey from the Public Policy Institute of California shows both Democratic candidates, gubernatorial nominee Jerry Brown and incumbent Sen. Barbara Boxer, leading in their races.

In the gubernatorial race: Brown 44%, Republican Meg Whitman 36%. In the previous poll from late September, Whitman had an edge of 38%-37%. The TPM Poll Average for the gubernatorial race gives Brown a lead of 47.3%-42.3%.

In the Senate race: Boxer 43%, Republican Carly Fiorina 38%. In the previous poll from late September, Boxer led by 42%-35%. The TPM Poll Average for the Senate race gives Boxer a lead of 47.0%-43.3%.

The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error.

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2010 elections

Fox Poll: Dems Lead In California

Eric Kleefeld | October 19, 2010, 12:40PM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and California Attorney General Jerry Brown

The new Fox News poll of California shows the Democrats extending their narrow leads in the state's top races for governor and Senate. Or perhaps more accurately, the Republicans are falling further behind -- the voters don't actually like any of the candidates.

In the gubernatorial race, to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger: Democrat Jerry Brown 48%, Republican Meg Whitman 43%. In the previous Fox poll from a month ago, Brown and Whitman were tied at 45%-45%. The TPM Poll Average for the gubernatorial race gives Brown a lead of 47.6%-43.7%

In the Senate race: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer 48%, Republican Carly Fiorina 44%. In the previous poll, Boxer led by just 47%-46%. The TPM Poll Average for the Senate race gives Boxer a lead of 48.0%-43.7%.

As Fox's analysis points out: "California voters don't seem too happy with any of their candidate choices this year. Boxer, Fiorina, Brown and Whitman all scored above 50 percent on being viewed unfavorably by voters."

The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error.

2010 elections

Reuters/Ipsos Poll: Brown And Boxer Narrowly Lead In California

Eric Kleefeld | October 15, 2010, 6:25PM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and California Attorney General Jerry Brown

The new Reuters/Ipsos poll of California gives the Democratic candidates narrow leads in the state's top two races.

In the gubernatorial race, to succeed term-limited Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Democrat Jerry Brown leads Republican Meg Whitman by 48%-44%. In the previous Ipsos poll from just under two weeks ago, Brown led by 50%-43%. The TPM Poll Average for the gubernatorial race gives Brown a lead of 47.4%-43.8%

In the Senate race, incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer has an edge of just 46%-45% over Republican Carly Fiorina. In the previous poll, Boxer led by 49%-45%. The TPM Poll Average for the Senate race gives Boxer a lead of 47.9%-43.7%.

The survey of likely voters has a ±4.6% margin of error.

CA-SEN

SurveyUSA Polls: Dems Ahead In CA-SEN and CA-GOV Races

Marc Kilstein | October 5, 2010, 9:42AM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and California Attorney General Jerry Brown

SurveyUSA is out with new numbers on the California Senate and gubernatorial races and both Democratic nominees are maintaining their recent polling leads. In the Senate race, Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer is leading Republican former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina 46%-43%, while Democratic state Attorney General Jerry Brown is up on Republican former eBay CEO Meg Whitman in the state's gubernatorial race, 47%-43%.

When SurveyUSA last looked at these contests on September 21, both Democrats were up in their respective contests: Boxer led by six points, 49%-43%, and Brown had a three-point advantage, 46%-43%. These two closely-watched races have been heavily polled over the last few weeks. Most recently in the Senate race, a CNN/Time poll gave Boxer a 52%-43% lead over Fiorina. The Democrat hasn't been found trailing in a poll in nearly a month. In the gubernatorial fight, an October 3 Rasmussen poll had Brown up five points, 49%-44%. He has led in five of the last six poll conducted on the race.

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2010 elections

The Quiet Surge: Boxer Staying One Step Ahead In California

Eric Kleefeld | October 4, 2010, 8:34AM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA)

Although Senate Republicans are expected to pick up a lot of seats, one race that they had high hopes for currently seems to be slipping away, based on the latest polls: California, where Sen. Barbara Boxer is running for her fourth term.

On paper, Boxer suffers from the same lackluster popularity that has plagued many other Senators in the tough economic environment -- as the TPM Poll Average of her approval rating shows, she is at only 42.6% approval, to 47.4% disapproval. Furthermore, Boxer's Republican opponent is Carly Fiorina, the former CEO of Hewlett Packard, who has put several million dollars of her own money into the race (though nowhere near the more than $100 million put in by Republican gubernatorial nominee Meg Whitman).

However, the latest TPM Poll Average for the horse race gives Boxer a steady lead of 47.4%-43.4%, and Fiorina has been unable to catch Boxer for some time.

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CA-SEN

PPIC Poll: Boxer Ahead Seven Points In CA-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 30, 2010, 3:54PM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA)

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) is in the driver's seat in her bid for reelection this year, a new poll from the Public Policy Institute of California shows. The PPIC survey of 1,104 likely voters is one of the state's most respected polls and it shows Boxer leading Republican nominee Carly Fiorina 42-35.

In PPIC's last survey of the race, taken in July, Boxer led 39-34. The new result matches other recent polls showing Boxer ahead. The TPM Poll Average shows the Democrat leading 47.4-43.4.

PPIC reports that Boxer appears to be gaining voters even as she loses some public confidence. "Across parties, her approval rating has dropped since May among Democrats (67% today, down 10 points), independents (41%, down 12 points), and Republicans (7%, down 6 points)," the pollster reports. "Disapproval of her job performance is at a new high of 45 percent."

That dip could give Fiorina some hope that she can reclaim the lead in the race between now and November 2.

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CA-SEN

Boxer And Fiorina Slug It Out In Debate

Eric Kleefeld | September 29, 2010, 6:51PM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Republican Senate nominee Carly Fiorina

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and her Republican opponent, former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, met today for a heated debate (though Boxer phoned it in from DC), hosted by the radio station KPCC in Pasadena and the Spanish-language newspaper La Opinion. A major theme emerged from the discussion -- that each one would often answer a question about their own position by attacking their opponent.

For example, when Fiorina was asked for comment about what federal regulations she would roll back, she referenced Endangered Species Act rules that cut off access to water resources in California's rural areas -- and how Barbara Boxer's links to "extreme" environmental groups keep her from doing anything about it.

On job creation, Boxer said, "The fact is our nation needs to incentivize companies like yours to hire American workers. We need to see the words 'made in America' again." And then she turned it right at Fiorina's business record: "She laid off 30,000 workers, shipped their jobs to China, to India, to Malaysia. She's said she's proud of what she did. The fact is I've met some of these people who she's laid off, I've heard some of their stories."

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CA-SEN

CNN/Time Polls: California Love For Boxer, Brown

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 29, 2010, 6:17PM

California Attorney General and gubernatorial candidate Jerry Brown

Two new polls from CNN/Time are giving Democrats in California reason to celebrate. The party's nominees for governor and Senate -- both facing wealthy self-funders -- are ahead by nine points, the polls find.

Incumbent Sen. Barbara Boxer leads Republican nominee Carly Fiorina by margin of 52-43, the poll finds. That's the same margin that CNN/Time reports Jerry Brown (D) is ahead of Meg Whitman (R) in the gubernatorial race.

Compared with CNN/Time's last poll of the races, both sets of numbers show the Democrats gaining momentum. Boxer led by four in the last poll, and Brown trailed by two.

The TPM Poll Average for the Senate campaign shows Boxer ahead 48.0-44.3. The TPM Poll Average for the gubernatorial fight shows a much closer contest, with Whitman ahead 45.8-45.5.

Both CNN/Time polls were conducted among likely voters early this week. The margin of error for each is 3.5%.

CA-SEN

Chamber Slams Boxer As Anti-Business In New California Ad Blitz (VIDEO)

Christina Bellantoni | September 28, 2010, 11:49AM

Anti-Barbara Boxer ad from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, "28 Years"

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is running a new television ad in California targeting Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) as doing little in her nearly three decades of service. Boxer faces a competitive race against former HP CEO Carly Fiorina, one of several Republican candidates the chamber is spending big bucks to boost this fall.

The ad focuses on a theme Fiorina hit in her first television ad and during their first debate, that Boxer has few accomplishments to show for her 28 years in Washington.

Read more »

CA-SEN

Los Angeles Times Poll: Boxer Leads Fiorina By 8 Points

Eric Kleefeld | September 27, 2010, 9:55AM

Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA)

The new Los Angeles Times/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) poll of the California Senate race shows Dem Sen. Barbara Boxer with a strong lead over Republican nominee Carly Fiorina.

The numbers: Boxer 51%, Fiorina 43%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3.3% margin of error. In the previous LAT/GQR poll from back in late May, Boxer led Fiorina by 44%-38%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Boxer a lead of 47.5%-44.3%.

CA-SEN

Field Poll: Boxer Leads Fiorina By 6 In CA-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | September 24, 2010, 10:17AM

Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Senate candidate Carly Fiorina (R-CA)

A Field Poll released this morning finds Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer leading Republican former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina 47%-41% in the California Senate race.

In the last Field Poll, from early July, Boxer led Fiorina by three points, 47%-44%. The latest survey is one of a number of polls released this week that have the Democratic nominee out in front-- among them are a SurveyUSA poll out yesterday that produced a six-point lead for Boxer, 49-43%, and a September 20 Rasmussen poll that showed a four-point advantage for the Democrat.

While polls have treated Boxer well over recent weeks, it is worth noting that the new Field Poll saw the incumbent Democratic Senator's job disapproval rating at a historical high-- 47% of California likely voters suggested that they do not approve of her job performance as a US Senator, the highest mark Field has registered through nearly two decades of polling on the Democrat.

The TPM Poll Average shows Boxer leading the contest 47.1%-44.4%. The margin of error of the newest survey is ±4.1 percentage points.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

Bush Tax Cuts

Some Think Reid Bowing To Pressure From Dem Candidates

Christina Bellantoni | September 23, 2010, 1:34PM

Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI), Vice President Joe Biden, and Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA)

How did Senate leadership go from all-systems-go on extending tax cuts for the middle class to let's wait for the lame duck? Some aides think it has everything to do with the elections.

A Senate Democratic aide told TPM that while leadership has opted to scrap plans for a tax cuts vote before the election, the caucus isn't so clearly against holding a vote now.

The aide said it's closely divided among the Democrats who want to punt until November and those who want to take a vote now to draw a distinction between their party and the Republicans in clear terms.

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CA-SEN

SurveyUSA Poll: Boxer Up 6 In CA-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | September 23, 2010, 11:34AM

Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Senate candidate Carly Fiorina (R-CA)

A new SurveyUSA poll of the California Senate race shows Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer ahead of Republican former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina 49%-43%.

The latest survey's numbers are very different than the firm's findings in its September 1 poll -- Fiorina was up 48%-46%. The Democratic nominee has come out on top of all six polls conducted for the contest since September 6 -- the latest, prior to today's, was a September 20 Rasmussen poll that gave Boxer a 47%-43% advantage.

The TPM Poll Average shows Boxer leading the contest 47.1%-44.8%. The margin of error of the newest survey is ±4.0 percentage points.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

CA-SEN

Fiorina's First TV Ad Goes Negative: Boxer Is Arrogant (VIDEO)

Christina Bellantoni | September 23, 2010, 8:20AM

CA Sen candidate Carly Fiorina (R)

Republican Senate candidate Carly Fiorina went straight for the jugular today with her first television ad slamming rival Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) as arrogant. Fiorina's camp uses footage from Boxer's famed exchange with Brigadier Gen. Michael Walsh of the Army Corps of Engineers.

During a June 2009 hearing, Boxer asked Gen. Walsh to call her "senator," not "ma'am." The moment has been conservative catnip for more than a year, and Fiorina mentioned it in her first debate with Boxer last month.

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CA-SEN

Koch Industries Among Hosts Of Carly Fiorina Fundraiser

Christina Bellantoni | September 22, 2010, 11:08AM

US Senate candidate Carly Fiorina (R-CA)

Republican Senate hopeful Carly Fiorina will attend a high-dollar fundraiser Thursday night that includes Koch Industries PAC, a conservative megadonor that has been the subject of some high-profile magazine pieces of late.

The Koch brothers have become conservative super-villains for Democrats this year, igniting Democrats in the same way George Soros' spending on liberal causes enrages the right.

According to the invitation for the Thursday night reception at the National Republican Senatorial Committee headquarters near Union Station, hosts -- including Koch -- donated $2,500. It includes a special reception for sponsors Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, NRSC Chairman John Cornyn, Sen. Jon Kyl and the 26 hosts including Koch Industries PAC. The general reception with the Senate Republican caucus follows. Sponsors paid $5,000 per PAC or $2,400 for an individual sponsorship. The plastic surgeons' political action committee, Plastypac, also is a host.

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CA-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Dem Boxer Up 4 In CA-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | September 21, 2010, 4:36PM

Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Senate candidate Carly Fiorina (R-CA)

A newly released Rasmussen poll of the California Senate race finds Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer leading Republican former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina 47%-43%.

The latest survey tells a very different story than the one told by Rasmussen's September 6 survey. In that earlier poll, Fiorina was up on Boxer by five, 47%-42%. Fox News released new numbers on the contest this morning, which showed the Democrat leading Fiorina 47%-46%. Rasmussen's newest poll also echos the results from a September 16 PPP that had Boxer at 50% and Fiorina at 42%.

The TPM Poll Average shows Boxer leading Fiorina 46.7%-44.7%. The margin of error of the newest survey is ±4.0 percentage points.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

2010 elections

Fox News Poll: CA-SEN And CA-GOV Races Are Very, Very Close

Marc Kilstein | September 21, 2010, 11:44AM

Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Senate candidate Carly Fiorina (R-CA)

Fox News is out with new numbers on the California Senate and gubernatorial races this morning, and both races are looking tight... really, really tight.

The survey, conducted by Rasmussen offshoot Pulse Opinion Research through an automated dialing system, finds Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer leading Republican former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina by the narrowest of margins in the Senate race, 47%-46%. In the state's gubernatorial race, Democratic state Attorney General Jerry Brown and Republican former eBay CEO Meg Whitman are deadlocked, 45%-45%.

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