
Returns for 435 House elections will start rolling in a few hours from now. Well before they do, though, most Dems had long conceded that more than a handful of races are already lost. With these seats for all intents and purposes off the table before the polls opened, the number of truly contested seats the GOP needs to win control of the House is effectively much smaller than the magic 39.
Assuming the House does change hands, then, the big open question is how big the swing will be. There are scores of seats in play, but the battle lines have already moved past over a dozen House members who, in most cases, have already been written off by their own party.
If you're keeping score tonight, don't hold your breath for any of these Democrats.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Kevin "Coach" Collins, a right-wing blogger and former NYPD cop, told TPMDC that he didn't send Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI) a threatening fax depicting a noose. A post from his blog, and his name, appears on the document, which arrived in Stupak's office yesterday.
Collins, who runs a blog on which he posted an entry that was reprinted on the Stupak fax (with the addition of the gallows imagery), says he sent Stupak something to protest his vote for health care reform, but the fax was not it.
"Here's what I sent: A hand written note saying I thought he would be in a tough reelection so I was sending him a donation of thirty dimes," he told me last night. "I included my name address my occupation and the fact that it was not corporate funds that I sent but my own money."
"If anyone wants to make an issue of this he or she will be barking up a tree with a nasty dog sitting in it's branches," Collins added.
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The 34 Democrats who voted against health care reform last night are by and large a familiar set. They overlap significantly--though not entirely--with the 39 Democrats who voted against the House health care bill in November. Just as in November, most hail from contested districts, in the south and the midwest. But just as in November, there are some surprises--members you wouldn't normally expect to see voting against legislation so closely associated with the Democratic party.
Most of the Democratic "no" votes are as you would expect: conservative members from conservative districts, in many cases facing difficult re-election challenges. Blue Dog chair Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-SD) is one such member. So is Rep. Rick Boucher (D-VA).
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (1)The past day and a half have gone pretty well for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Yesterday saw a number of in-play Democrats come out in support the final health care reform package, and netted her her first commitment from a member--Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH)--who voted against the House health care bill in November. Today, the Congressional Budget Office gave the legislation a winning score, and she won more commitments, and her second and third converts from no-to-yes: Reps. Bart Gordon (D-TN) and Betsy Markey (D-CO).
But here's the rub: Pelosi still lacks the votes to pass it. Some former supporters of reform continue to say they'll vote against the current legislation. And though many members are coming around, very few of them are in the elusive pool from which Pelosi needs to draw: Members who voted against reform in round one.
And she's running out of easy pick-ups.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)It's official: Rep. Bart Gordon (D-TN) is switching his health care vote from "no" to "yes."
That's a big pickup for Democrats -- Gordon is just the second Democrat who voted "no" on the House health care bill in November to say he'll vote "yes" on the Senate bill now. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) was the first switcher.
Gordon was a key target for Democratic leadership after announcing his retirement last fall. And Democrats still don't seem to have secured the 216 votes they need to pass health care reform -- so every pickup counts.
Rep. Bart Gordon (D-TN), who voted against the House health care bill last year, released a statement saying he is pleased with President Obama's health care proposal -- a signal that he may change his vote.
"Throughout the debate over the past year, I've said any responsible health care bill must do two things: reduce overall health care spending and increase access to affordable care," Gordon said in the statement, according to the New York Times. "I voted against the House bill in November because it expanded coverage but did not do enough to bring down costs. I'm pleased to see the discussion moving in a more fiscally responsible direction now."
Gordon lauded the president for including provisions for medical malpractice reform.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)At first glance, it certainly looks like the retirement of Rep. Bart Gordon (D-TN) could set up a strong pick-up opportunity for the Republicans.
Gordon himself has been re-elected by overwhelming margins, but the district's voting patterns have otherwise shown a decided swing to the Republicans. It was an approximate 49%-49% tie between George W. Bush and Al Gore in 2000, but then voted for Bush by 60%-40% in 2004, and for John McCain by 62%-37% in 2008.
"Well, I'm not gonna blow smoke on this. That district has trended Republican for years," a Democratic source bluntly admitted, though he wasn't giving up hope. "But having said that, there are still plenty of folks in that area, they've shown their independent-minded streak before."
NRCC spokesman Ken Spain put out a triumphant statement: "It's official: Democrats now have a retirement problem. After being forced to toe the line for Nancy Pelosi's reckless agenda too many times, Blue Dog Democrats would rather roll over and retire than face the political headwind that is barreling toward them. This is evidence of the fact that the Obama-Pelosi agenda of government takeovers, permanent bailouts, and fewer jobs is taking a political and mental toll even on incumbent Democrats who were once-perceived to be firmly entrenched."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Rep. Bart Gordon (D-TN) today becomes the latest Congressional retirement in a seat that could be a prime pick up for the Republicans next year.
Gordon, 60, announced in a statement he will not seek reelection next year after serving more than 25 years in Congress.
He is chairman of the House Science and Technology Committee.
In more metrics showing it will be a prime target in the 2010 Congressional midterms, the district went 62-37 for Sen. John McCain in last year's presidential race. It was a more Republican district in 2008 than it had been in 2004 and 2000.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI) sits on the House Energy and Commerce Committee, which voted way back in July to advance health care legislation to the House floor. At the time, the legislation stipulated that no federal funds authorized by the bill would be used to pay for abortions, except in cases of incest, risk to the life of the mother, and rape. And at the time, that was good enough.
But even back then, Stupak was trying to strengthen the language in the bill restricting the availability of abortion services under the House health care plan.
A day before the bill passed out of committee, Stupak co-sponsored, and voted for an amendment written by Rep. Joe Pitts (R-PA)--distinct from the now notorious "Stupak amendment"--that would have limited the government's ability to include abortions in benefits plans to cases of incest, life of the mother, and forcible rape.
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