Health Care

The Final Four: Who's Standing In Reid's Way, And Can They Be Won Over?

Brian Beutler | November 24, 2009, 4:29PM

From left to right Top: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) Bottom: Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT), Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA), Center: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV)

Toward the end of the summer, when it was unclear whether Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid would include a public option in his health care bill, progressives let it be known that he would not be forgiven if he allowed a handful of nameless Democrats silently filibuster the provision. In the end, this pressure, and various other factors, ultimately convinced Reid to include the opt out public option in the legislation, and the opponents have had to come forward. Their names won't surprise students of Democratic politics: Sens. Joe Lieberman (I-CT), Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), Ben Nelson (D-NE), and Mary Landrieu (D-LA).

These conservative Democrats are known for taking stances at odds with the party on key issues, but in this health care debate they are ultimately driven by very different motives. They have suddenly become the targets of every major reform organization in the country, and understanding what makes them tick will be key to the advocates who are now trying to change their minds.

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Harry Reid

What Did We Learn From Saturday's Health Care Vote

Brian Beutler | November 23, 2009, 11:50AM

Senators Nelson (D-NE) and Lieberman (I-CT)

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid got his 60 on Saturday, and when the Senate returns from Thanksgiving recess next week, they'll be debating and amending a major piece of health care legislation. However, the vote, and its aftermath exposed or clarified the cleavages within the Democratic party that will have to be bridged if Reid hopes to keep his caucus in line on the next cloture motion--to end a Republican filibuster and hold a simple majority vote on reform.

If you thought the opt-out compromise was a silver bullet for the public option, you may have gotten a bit ahead of yourself. It held up for a while, and could still survive, but that's going to require some interesting gymnastics from Democratic leaders. Leading up to Saturday's vote, and in its immediate aftermath, conservative Democrats entrenched their opposition to the public option in the Senate bill. Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) repeated his threat to support a health care filibuster if it includes a public option of any kind, and, despite her earlier support for the provision, Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) took to the Senate floor Saturday and announced, "I'm promising my colleagues that I'm prepared to vote against moving to the next stage of consideration as long as a government-run public option is included." That gives her a bit more wiggle room than Lieberman's left himself, and Sens. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) and Ben Nelson (D-NE) have a bit more still, but that makes 60 for the opt out a tough climb. On the other side of the caucus, though, Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Sherrod Brown (D-OH), and Roland Burris (D-IL) have inched closer to threatening to block a health care bill from the left if the public option is weakened further. If reform is to pass, one side of the caucus will have to hold its collective nose and vote for something they don't like.

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Harry Reid

Reid: 'I Welcome Schumer, Landrieu, And Carper, As They Work On Public Option Compromise'

Brian Beutler | November 21, 2009, 8:51PM

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV)

After a successful vote to begin debate on a landmark health care bill. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid addressed the news, first reported by TPMDC, that conservative Democrats are working with public option supporter Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) on a compromise.

"I welcome Sen. Schumer, Landrieu and Carper--Landrieu said that they're working together on a public option that's acceptable to [all parties]."

Asked by TPMDC about Schumer's role in the negotiations, Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) applauded his colleague. "Senator Schumer, when he's not hunting, works with a lot of different individuals on a lot of different points," Nelson said. "He was the one that came up with the idea of opting out--I don't think it sold very well, but he has the ability to be very pragmatic about a lot of these issues, and that makes him very important in the process."

Public option stalwart Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) said he hopes that triggers aren't ultimately affixed to the public option, but isn't alarmed that Reid isn't tamping down on the negotiations.

"That's been Harry from the very beginning. He's always said that, and he's always meant it," Rockefeller said.

Late update: Schumer spokesman Brian Fallon emails a statement to TPMDC. He says discussions with centrists, such as they are, are in their earliest stages. "Leading up to tonight's vote, some senators expressed a desire to discuss the public option currently in the Senate bill. Of course, Senator Schumer did not rule that out. But no such talks have yet taken place, and there is not any compromise at hand beyond what Leader Reid has already inserted into the bill. Senator Schumer remains a strong proponent of the opt-out, level playing field public option."

Mary Landrieu

Landrieu To Vote For Health Care Debate

Brian Beutler | November 21, 2009, 12:30PM

Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA)

The suspense has lifted. Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) will announce on the Senate floor this afternoon that she will vote to debate health care legislation.

When she does, she will join her colleague Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE), another conservative Democrat, in the "yes" column. The lone holdout at this point is Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), who has yet to publicly announce her intentions.

Health Care

Senate Debates Historic Health Care Bill

Brian Beutler | November 21, 2009, 10:14AM

Sen. McConnell (R-KY) Sen. Reid (D-NV)

We'll be following today's proceedings live from the U.S. Capitol, gavel-to-gavel. Check in all day for breaking updates.

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Ben Nelson

Tomorrow's Health Care Vote: A Cheat Sheet

Brian Beutler | November 20, 2009, 5:40PM

Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT), Senator Harry Reid (D-NV), Senator Max Baucus (D-MT)

With Ben Nelson now in the "yes" column, there are now two known Democratic hold outs on tomorrow's health care vote: Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) and Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR).

Landrieu told reporters today that she'll likely make an announcement tomorrow morning. Lincoln, on the other hand, has been unreachable, and it's unclear if, or when, she'll announce her intent publicly before the vote, which will come at 8 p.m. tomorrow night.

It's probably a safe guess that, if at the end of the day, there's something standing between Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and 60 votes on the motion to debate to his bill, he won't hold the vote. As unlikely as that is, here are the potential hangups.

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Ben Nelson

Nelson: Let's Debate This Health Care Bill

Brian Beutler | November 20, 2009, 12:13PM

Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE)

Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) just announced that he will vote yes tomorrow on a motion to proceed to debate on Senate health care legislation, though he says he will filibuster the bill if parts of it are not tailored to his liking during the amendment process.

"This weekend, I will vote for the motion to proceed to bring that debate onto the Senate floor," Nelson says. "The Senate should start trying to fix a health care system that costs too much and delivers too little for Nebraskans."

"In my first reading," Nelson said, "I support parts of the bill and oppose others I will work to fix. If that's not possible, I will oppose the second cloture motion--needing 60 votes--to end debate, and oppose the final bill.

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Ben Nelson

Landrieu, Nelson Win Goodies As Reid Seeks Their Vote On Reform

Brian Beutler | November 20, 2009, 9:27AM

Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA), Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE)

Sen. Mary Landrieu's state of Louisiana is still ailing years after Hurricane Katrina devastated its largest city. So Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid could be killing two birds with one stone by including in his health care bill $100 million in federal Medicaid aid for any states (aka, Louisiana) that have suffered a natural disaster in the last seven years. That's much needed help for the poor in Louisiana, and also a sweetener for Landrieu, whose support for health care reform has never been terribly certain.

That appears to be a more justifiable offer from Reid than a separate concession to Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE), another health-care fence sitter. In a move that appears designed to win Nelson's initial procedural votes, Reid decided not to include a measure ending anti-trust exemptions for the insurance industry.

Reid originally fought hard to lift the exemption, even testifying before the Senate Judiciary Committee on the need to end insurance companies' monopolistic practices. But his decision may be paying political dividends, as Nelson inches toward supporting a key health care test vote on Saturday.

The only remaining question: What's in it for Arkansas?

AR-SEN

HCAN: Health Care Swing States Want An Up-Or-Down Vote On Reform

Brian Beutler | November 20, 2009, 9:13AM

Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA), Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE)

Congressional procedure can be confusing even for politicos, but the reform campaign Health Care for America Now has boiled it down. The group has distributed polling data to its largest member organizations indicating that voters in key swing states believe health care shouldn't be stymied by procedural supermajority requirements in the Senate.

The polls were taken in Nebraska, Louisiana, and Arkansas, home of reform skeptics Ben Nelson, Mary Landrieu, and Blanche Lincoln, don't believe their senators should kill reform by voting with Republicans to block either a debate or a vote on the bill.

"In the Senate, before a bill can be voted on, there must be a vote to allow it to be debated," reads the first survey question. "Regardless of whether you support or oppose the health insurance reform plan itself, do you believe that it should be debated on the floor of the Senate?"

In all states, voters overwhelmingly said the Senate health care reform bill should be debated on the floor. Nebraska: 88-9, Louisiana: 82-9, Arkansas: 84-11.

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Abortion

Nebraska Republican: A Vote To Proceed Is A Vote For Abortion

Brian Beutler | November 19, 2009, 2:42PM

Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) better have a chat with his friends on the other side of the aisle.

At a press event this afternoon, Republicans lambasted the Senate health care bill for not adopting the language in the House's Stupak amendment, and reiterated their point that a vote to proceed to debate may as well be a vote for abortion.

"This first vote is the key vote," Nelson's Nebraska colleague, Sen. Mike Johanns, told reporters today.

That statehood camaraderie isn't likely to be lost on Nelson, who will soon have to decide whether to vote to allow the bill to proceed to debate. Nelson has gone to great lengths to distinguish this early procedural votes for more consequential votes down the line. But he says he still hasn't decided what his next move is, and isn't too pleased with the abortion provision in the Senate health care package.

Filibuster

Reid On Passing Health Care: 'I'm Not Using Reconciliation'

Brian Beutler | November 19, 2009, 1:30PM

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV)

Yesterday, I asked Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) what he and other moderates had heard from Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid at an impromptu afternoon meeting about health care reform. Nelson said Reid "talked about process, procedure, discussion about reconciliation and a whole host of issues of that sort."

Reconciliation is a complicated legislative process that would allow Reid to pass some version of reform without having to contend with a filibuster. "Nobody's really jumping up and down to push for reconciliation," Nelson added, "he's not threatening that, but anybody can conclude that if you don't move something on to the floor, that is one of the possibilities."

Today, at an event celebrating the unveiling of his health care bill, I asked Reid what specifically he'd said to Nelson--along with Sens. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) and Mary Landrieu (D-LA)--about reconciliation. His answer left no wiggle room: "I'm not using reconciliation," he said.

Ben Nelson

Will Concessions, And A Trim CBO Score, Appease Conservative Democrats On Health Care?

Brian Beutler | November 19, 2009, 11:37AM

Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA), Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE)

Conservative Democrats couldn't have asked for better top-line numbers from the CBO on Senate health care legislation. Low total cost, big long-term deficit reductions, millions insured, and a public option that insures perhaps one percent of the population. But is that enough to actually cool their heartburn?

Well, yes and no.

"Listen, anytime you add more to deficit reduction, you have to say that it's a move in the right direction," Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) told reporters yesterday. "So there's no doubt...that clearly would be one [area of improvement]--but again you have to have a lot of faith and trust in the scoring system."

Nelson cautioned that the CBO numbers released yesterday are preliminary, and subject to some uncertainty, but basically applauded the bill for being fiscally responsible.

But is that what's really driving the moderates' skepticism?

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Health Care

Clearing The Way: Sen. Bayh Says He'll Bring Health Care Bill To Floor

Christina Bellantoni | November 19, 2009, 10:37AM

Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN)

Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) has pledged to vote to bring the health care bill to the floor, a procedural hurdle that would allow the Senate to start debating the $849 billion plan.

Without promising he'd back the final plan, Bayh told the Hill newspaper he would support the first cloture motion that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid files. Several conservative Democrats had suggested they might vote against that, and Republicans have threatened to use those procedural votes as political fodder.

Bayh said:

"At the end of the process, I'll avoid the Washington two-step of voting to go forward but then voting against the final bill. But this is just a starting point, so at this point I do think there's a difference."

He joins Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE), who suggested yesterday he would do the same.

Health Care

Reid Outlines Bill For Caucus, Warns Conservative Dems That Reconciliation Is Still An Option

Brian Beutler | November 18, 2009, 6:45PM

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) and Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY)

At a special evening meeting of the Democratic caucus tonight, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid outlined, in broad strokes, the details of his health care bill, which the CBO has found, in a preliminary analysis, will expand coverage to 94 percent of Americans while reducing the deficit. And earlier in the day, during a separate meeting about floor procedure, Reid let three of his party's key skeptics know that if they join Republicans at any stage of the process to block the bill, he still retains the option of passing major parts of it through the filibuster proof budget reconciliation process.

In response to a question from TPMDC Nelson told reporters that, at a meeting this afternoon with Sens. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) and Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), Reid "talked about process, procedure, discussion about reconciliation and a whole host of issues of that sort."

"Nobody's really jumping up and down to push for reconciliation," Nelson said, "he's not threatening that, but anybody can conclude that if you don't move something on to the floor, that is one of the possibilities."

Nelson said he has still not committed to vote for even the first procedural vote, but in a sign that he's leaning toward bringing a bill to the floor, he emphasized his view that the floor debate is a chance to improve the legislation. "I wanted to make it clear that that is, unlike some are suggesting, is not the vote...it's a motion to enter into the debate and possible amendments and improvements of the legislation" Nelson said. "The vote is the second cloture vote, and that is the cloture on a motion to cease debate, and I wanted that clear, because I've already begun to see people out there say, 'oh no, no, if you vote [to take it up] you've voted for health care."

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has explicitly stated that the Republican party will treat Democrats who vote for any procedural motion as if they've voted for the entire health care bill.

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Ben Nelson

Reid: No Health Care Bill Today, First Vote May Come This Weekend

Brian Beutler | November 17, 2009, 2:58PM

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid did not present his caucus with a CBO analysis of his health care bill at a weekly lunch meeting this afternoon. And though that report may still come in later this afternoon, according to his spokesman, Jim Manley, Reid is unlikely to unveil his bill until tomorrow at the earliest.

"He didn't go into any of the numbers...nothing yet. He said he would have that information for us soon, soon meaning not giving us a particular time to come here and announce it. He'll announce it." said Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) as he emerged from the meeting.

Once the numbers are in and the bill has distributed to Democrats, Reid will likely old one or two more meetings with the caucus, to answer any questions, and allay any concerns, before holding the first procedural vote--on the motion to proceed to debate--later this week, or possibly this weekend. "We're going to hold it as soon as we can," Reid told reporters today.

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Health Care

RNC Adds Nelson To 'Flip-Flop' Campaign

Christina Bellantoni | November 12, 2009, 2:16PM

Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE)

Even though it's cold outside, flip-flops are back in season.

As Evan reported earlier this week, the RNC is exploiting tensions within the Democratic party to compare wavering senators with Sen. John Kerry, using his "I voted for it before I voted against it" video.

Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) is the next target.

Mike Steele:

"Ben Nelson has taken part in the classic Potomac two-step of telling his constituents one thing in Nebraska and doing another thing back in Washington, D.C. Ben Nelson's double-speak has not gone unnoticed by voters in Nebraska and now it looks like Nelson may take this double-speak on health care reform one step further by voting for government-run health care before voting against it. Politicians cannot have it both ways - just ask John Kerry. Nebraskans can spot a phony politician when they see one and they know that any vote to move the Democrats' health care bill forward is a vote for a government-run health care experiment."

Ad after the jump.

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Health Care

GOP Sees 2010 Window, Gloat That Dems Who Opposed Health Care Will Take Dual Heat

Christina Bellantoni | November 11, 2009, 5:38PM

(Top, L-R), Rep. Boucher (D-VA), Rep. Shuler (D-NC), Rep. Ross (D-AR). (Bottom, L-R), Rep. Altmire (D-PA), Rep. Nye (D-VA), Rep. Tanner (D-TN)

Much like Sen. Blanche Lincoln and Sen. Ben Nelson, looks like the 39 Democrats voting against the House health care bill Saturday are getting squeezed from both sides.

We've been writing about all the left-leaning campaigns going after Democrats on health care, and plenty of efforts to hit Republicans as party of "no."

TPMDC has been chatting with Republicans who want to pick off vulnerable House Democrats in 2010 and they (not surprisingly) are pleased as punch by the internal warfare.

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Bill Clinton

Clinton To Senate Democrats: Whatever You Do, Don't Lose

Brian Beutler | November 10, 2009, 2:40PM

Fmr. President Bill Clinton

After an hour-long lunch with the Senate Democratic caucus, former President Bill Clinton found himself surrounded by dozens of reporters, and summarized his message as one of the urgency of action. "The worst thing to do is nothing," Clinton said of the party's health care reform push. "We can do so much better."

As they emerged from the lunch one by one, a number of senators echoed this rendering.

"His message was very simply it is so important that this be done, that there are so many people, I think 30 percent of the population he said at one point or another, don't have any health care coverage," Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) told TPMDC, "and so the ability to fix the problem is really upon us."

"He made clear that this is a once in a lifetime opportunity," she added, noting that Clinton did not directly address the politically divisive policy aspects of reform--abortion, the public option--in his presentation.

To members who are facing tough re-election races next year (such as fellow Arkansas native Blanche Lincoln) Clinton's message was equally simple: "You're going to do it, and then people are going to begin to see that none of the bad things that people are talking about will come to pass, essentially," Feinstein said.

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Abortion

Key Dem Senators Say Stupak Abortion Amendment Goes Too Far

Brian Beutler | November 10, 2009, 12:54PM

Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT), Senator Harry Reid (D-NV), Senator Max Baucus (D-MT)

A number of high-profile senators have come forward today to say that a controversial amendment to House health care legislation that would limit a woman's right to purchase insurance that covers abortions goes too far and should not be a part of the Senate.

At a Capitol Hill event this morning, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid implied that the Stupak amendment exceeds the strictures of the years-old Hyde amendment which prohibits federal funds from financing abortions. "I expect that the bill that will be brought to the floor will ensure..no federal contribution to abortion, and that [the] rights of providers, health care facilities like Catholic hospitals, are protected," Reid said. "The one thing that we're certain to do is to maintain what we have had in the past. I had the good fortune, as did Senator Durbin to serve with Henry Hyde, the Hyde amendment has been a pretty good way to go through this last couple of decades."

Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD) was more explicit. At a health care event this morning, Cardin said, "The right policy is to avoid coming down on one side or the other on the abortion issue and to handle health care reform as a separate issue."

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Abortion

Nelson: I'll Filibuster A Health Care Bill That Doesn't Include Strict Abortion Restrictions

Brian Beutler | November 9, 2009, 6:32PM

Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE)

Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) wants Senate health care legislation to contain strict restrictions on abortion funding, much like the House bills now does. And he says he'll filibuster if he doesn't get his way.

"As a pro-life person, I believe that something like the [Rep. Bart] Stupak amendment should be included in the Senate version," Nelson told reporters this evening. "But if it isn't included to that effect, to make it clear that no government money should be used for support, for the subsidies, or direct payments, or even tax credits, should be used to support abortions," he will oppose it.

"If it doesn't make it clear that it does not support abortion, does not pay for abortion, you can be sure I will vote against it."

I asked Nelson if his promise extended to procedural supermajority votes. He had a one word answer: "Yes."

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Health Care

Do or Die: The Six Senators Who Will Decide the Fate of Health Care Reform

Brian Beutler | November 9, 2009, 1:46PM

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid faces a number of obstacles to passing health care reform but his main task is to keep his caucus united for not one, but two, supermajority votes, just to get the reform bill an up or down on the Senate floor. Failure to get 60 votes to push past either of those two procedural chokepoints could derail the reform bill. Here are the six key holdouts Reid must wrangle to reach the magic threshold.

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Ben Nelson

Nelson To Tea Partiers: Welcome To Nebraska-East!

Brian Beutler | November 5, 2009, 2:40PM

There may be tea party protesters wandering the halls of Congress, and inundating members' office, by the thousands today--but some of the very people they hope to impact seem to be all but unaware of them.

"Are they doing that?" asked Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE), tongue planted firmly in cheek. "Oh good, good!"

Does that mean he's battening down the hatches and preparing for an onslaught? Quite the opposite!

"We're very friendly up there, so I know they'll get a warm reception."

Barack Obama

As Leaders Try To Pass Health Care Reform By Year's End, The Nearest Obstacles Are In Their Own Party

Brian Beutler | November 5, 2009, 2:23PM

Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE), Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY)

With less than two months to go until Congress breaks for the holidays, the White House and Senate leaders are huddling to figure out how to pass a bill before the end of the year. As part of their push, both camps are meeting with conservative Democrats--most notably Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)--whose unanimous support is absolutely required simply to bring the bill to the floor. But leading Democrats are unlikely to make any progress until these swing-vote senators see the bill Majority Leader Harry Reid put together, along with a cost estimate from the Congressional Budget Office. They say that's necessary before they make any decisions on even the earliest procedural votes, and there's no clear indication as to when the CBO will weigh in.

Last night, Reid met with Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel and others to discuss, among other things, how far they've come in convincing caucus conservatives to support the bill's public option. "That's one of many subjects, that wasn't the main subject," said Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY). Along the same lines, Reid spokesman Jim Manley suggests that this is part and parcel of an effort to move legislation sooner rather than later. They met, he said, to "discuss ways to try and get a bill done by the end of the year."

But with conservative Democrats cold to the public option, and withholding their commitments to allow the bill to be debated on the floor, the White House and Democratic leaders have a lot of work ahead of them and they'll likely have to work in tandem. On that score, this week, Lincoln--perhaps the most electorally vulnerable of all moderate Democrats--met with both Reid and President Obama to discuss the Senate bill.

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Ben Nelson

Nelson, Landrieu Say Election Results Do Not Diminish Their Health Care Goals

Brian Beutler | November 4, 2009, 1:44PM

Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA), Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE)

Today is a day for thumbsucking. After Republicans won gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, and Democrats picked up two House seats, everyone in Washington is spinning away, hoping to change the conventional wisdom, and, perhaps politics on Capitol Hill. But will it work? Today, two of the most conservative Democrats in the Senate said yesterday's election results won't have any effect on their votes on health care.

"There are no lessons in there for me, other than a lesson that I already had and that is we need to be very cautious and careful on spending," said Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) . "[W]e need to redirect a lot of our attention right back to the basic economy and trying to figure out ways to help with the economic woes that we have, and that may mean that we have to readjust some of the other priorities around here."

So this doesn't have an effect on the limits you'd like to impose on reform, I asked.

"No," he said.

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Ben Nelson

Are Senate Centrists Trying To Mount A Comeback For Snowe's Triggers?

Brian Beutler | November 3, 2009, 1:57PM

Are Senate centrists trying to broker a comeback for the so-called trigger option?

Two key conservative Democrats say they, along with Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) haven't given up hope.

"There's a possibility that [triggers could make a comeback]," said Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE). "Right now, we don't know what the actual version of the plan is, because it hasn't come back from CBO...so I think when we get that back, we'll take a look and see what the scoring is, and maybe figure out what chance that plan has to get enough votes. My expectation is that it probably doesn't have enough to get 60 votes to get off the floor if it gets on the floor."

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Health Care

MoveOn Targeting Democrats Considering Health Care Filibuster

Brian Beutler | November 3, 2009, 11:35AM

As Christina mentioned yesterday, MoveOn is targeting the conservative Democrats in the Senate suggesting they may vote with Republicans to filibuster a health care bill.

Radio ads will run in Arkansas and Louisiana, directed at Sens. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) and Mary Landrieu (D-LA). You can hear the Landrieu ad below.

Accompanying the radio spots will be a broader direct mail campaign aimed at Lincoln and Landrieu, but also at Sens. Ben Nelson (D-NE), Kent Conrad (D-ND), and Olympia Snowe (R-ME), the only Republican on the list.

Lincoln, Landrieu, and Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) will also be faced with polling data showing that the public option is popular among their constituents, who do not want to see them obstructing the passage of a reform bill.

Health Care

End Game: So When Will Health Care Really Happen?

Christina Bellantoni | October 27, 2009, 2:03PM

The House voting, the Senate voting

Yesterday's events have given health care new momentum, but advocates are a long way from popping champagne.

There remain unanswered questions about how the proposed Senate bill and public option opt-out will be structured, along with questions about its final cost and how the government will pay for it.

A Democratic aide told TPMDC today the House is aiming to have its bill on the floor in early November with a vote by Nov. 11, Veterans' Day.

The Senate has several stages ahead - a CBO score for the merged bill Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid introduced yesterday and then an agreement for what amendments will be allowed. It will be on the floor for debate in the next two weeks.

Once each bill passes its chamber, private negotiations will produce a conference report that will get another House and Senate vote.

Translation: there may be snow on the ground in D.C. before anything finally heads to President Obama's desk.

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Health Care

Sen. Ben Nelson Getting Squeezed By Left And Right On Health Care

Christina Bellantoni | October 26, 2009, 11:47AM

Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE)

Grover Norquist's Americans for Tax Reform is targeting Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) on health care with a national cable television ad that also will air in Nebraska.

Norquist, who has made a career of holding local, state and federal lawmakers accountable to signing a pledge with his group about not raising taxes, provides supporters a copy of the Nelson pledge in an ATR blog post today.

"He is bound by that Pledge for the duration of his career as a senator," ATR wrote, blasting the health care bill.

What's more, they are pressuring Nelson - already being hammered by the left on this issue - to filibuster the procedural motion to move forward on health care debate, suggesting a vote for what is known as cloture is a violation of the pledge.

"Now is the time where Senator Nelson must follow through on the promise he made to get elected," ATR wrote.

The ad after the jump.

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Health Care

How High Will Public Option Trial Balloon Fly In The Senate?

Brian Beutler | October 22, 2009, 6:51PM

For days there was silence. And then this morning and afternoon, the floodgates opened. Senators began saying, on the record, that Democratic leadership was leaning toward putting a public option--with an opt out clause--in the base Senate health care bill.

But, as a source close to the negotiations told me, there's more to leadership's inclination than meets the eye. Part of the play here is to see whether this news causes Senate centrists to flip out. A classic trial balloon. So far, only Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) has said it will likely cost Harry Reid her cloture vote. Conservative Democrats might not be pleased, but so far they're keeping it fairly bottled up. Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) voiced some displeasure, but nobody's gone into revolt.

Assuming the calm endures, chances seem pretty good that this is the direction Reid will take. But it won't be set in stone...until it's set in stone. As Greg Sargent has noted, the votes aren't there yet for a straightforward public option like the level-playing-field plan in the Senate HELP Committee's bill. In other words, negotiations will continue.

Harry Reid

Source: Leadership Poised To Add Public Option, Moderates Mostly Mum

Brian Beutler | October 22, 2009, 4:49PM

Where did all of this momentum for the public option come from? According to a source close to negotiations, it came from last night's closed door meeting between Senate and White House officials, with the push coming from Democratic leadership.

"It's definitely being considered," the source said, referring to the public option compromise that may end up in the Senate's health care bill.

"It came out at last night's meeting," the source indicated. "It was indicated that based on some surveying that had been done of the moderates, that it doesn't so far seem like they would jump out of their skin as long as they have an opportunity to vote to strip it."

Any provision in the base bill that hits the Senate floor will stay in unless 60 senators can band together to strip it out. That means if a public option is included now, it's almost certain not to go anywhere. According to both Sen. Tom Carper (D-DE) and other sources, the compromise being considered would create a national public option that pays providers at negotiated rates. Unlike similar so-called "level-playing-field" public option proposals, it would not be operated by the Department of Health and Human Services, but by a separate entity, with a board of directors appointed by the government.

This fact, apparently, didn't sit well with Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, who is determined to keep Sen. Olympia Snowe's vote.

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Health Care

Nelson, Conrad Say Dems, White House Leaning Toward Including Public Option In Senate Health Care Bill

Brian Beutler | October 22, 2009, 2:16PM

If this is accurate, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) gets a medal for prescience and Sen. Olympia Snowe's decision may be made for her. Two high profile conservative Democrats are saying they hear that Senate and White House health care negotiators are leaning toward including the public option in the base bill that they bring to the Senate floor.

"I keep hearing there is a lot of leaning toward some sort of national public option, unfortunately, from my standpoint," said Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE). "I still believe a state-based approach is the way in which to go. So I'm not being shy about making that point."

"What I'm hearing is this is the direction of the conversation," said Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND).

Reid's office is not commenting on the speculation. But if Nelson and Conrad's understanding is correct it would be bombshell news. Reid and the White House have been under intense pressure from the Democratic base to include a public option in the bill that comes to the Senate floor. If they accede, it would all but assure that if a health care bill os enacted by Congress, it will include a national public option. We'll pay close attention

Health Care

Rockefeller Warms To Public Option Opt Out; So Do Conservative Dems

Brian Beutler | October 21, 2009, 5:43PM

Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV)

Earlier today, Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) told me something somewhat unexpected. "I'm looking very much now at this opt out public option," he said, "not opt in but opt out--so you start out with a public option, and if you don't like it you can opt out....that has a sense of freedom."

Why unexpected? Because here's what he told me just last week: "I don't start out favoring that," he said. "You know, opt out is sort of like trigger. It sounds good, it makes people feel good, but the question is, Is it good? And I don't think it really is. If it's the only way you can get the votes, then that's a decision that will have to be made over my head."

That's a pretty notable change, and reflective of the political appeal of the opt-out proposal within the Democratic party. Rockefeller and other senators have come to believe that, in addition to being more likely to get the votes needed to pass in the Senate, it's also a policy fix that will have almost, if not the same, impact as a fully national public option.

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Ben Nelson

Nelson: Public Option May Be Popular, But Opt-Outs Are Really Popular

Brian Beutler | October 20, 2009, 3:49PM

For weeks now, Greg Sargent has been making the point that, though polling shows the public wants health care reform to be bipartisan, what it really shows is that people think bipartisanship is nice, they'd happily scotch it if that's what it takes to secure a public option.

That doesn't exactly square with the pronouncements of some conservative Democrats--particularly Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE)--who say bipartisanship is a crucial part of health care reform's legitimacy with the public. I caught up with Nelson earlier today and asked him to speak to the poll's findings.

"Well, there are different kinds of public options.... What was interesting in the poll numbers that I saw, that while there's support for public option generally, generically, when you start talking about it specifically as it relates to states being able to opt out or opt in, have their own, the support overwhelmingly goes up to 76 percent."

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Health Care

After Tense Health Care Discussion, Dems Predict Unanimity On Reform

Brian Beutler | October 15, 2009, 2:52PM

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV)

After what Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) indicated was a tense health care discussion, Senate health care leaders declared, confidently, that the overhaul package that comes to the floor will earn every Democratic vote. However, they also made clear that the ultimate decision maker on key questions like the public option is Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

"Reid's making these decisions ultimately, and I think he's listening and...I feel good about it," said Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH).

"Conrad spoke out for co-ops," Brown said, "six or seven people spoke out for [the public option]," adding later that the pro-public option senators were articulating a policy preference, and not pressuring Reid to act one way or another as he weaves two competing Senate bills together. Nobody, he says, spoke out against a public plan.

Brown's confidence springs from a belief that conservative Democrats do not want to be held responsible for killing reform. "No Democrat wants to be on the wrong side of history and vote on a procedural vote to kill the most important domestic vote of their careers," Brown said.

But Senate Finance Committee chairman Max Baucus went even further and suggested that every Democrat would ultimately vote for the final bill.

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