2012

71% Of Republicans Don't Want Sarah Palin To Run

Benjy Sarlin | September 2, 2011, 3:19PM

Sarah Palin

It seems Sarah Palin has worn out her welcome with Republicans. An astounding 71% of GOP voters say they don't want Palin to run for president, according to a new poll by FOX News, with 25% supporting a bid and 4% unsure.

The numbers are brutal for Palin, who was long regarded as a potential frontrunner for the 2012 nomination. Even among Tea Party-identifying Republicans she fares poorly: 68% say she shouldn't run versus only 28% who say she should. The numbers aren't that far off from the general electorate, 74% of whom don't want her to run versus 20% who do. Outside of Tea Partiers, more than 70% of every demographic broken out in the poll's crosstabs -- men, women, white voters, non-white voters, voters with college degrees, voters without college degrees -- are against a Palin run.

As TPM noted this week, there hasn't exactly been a clamor going up among Republicans for a Sarah Palin run while she's tested the waters in recent weeks. Maybe the disastrous box office returns for a movie celebrating her Alaska governorship were an early warning sign.

h/t Gawker

Dick Cheney

Dick Cheney Says Sarah Palin Hasn't Explained Her Resignation

Benjy Sarlin | September 2, 2011, 12:37PM

Former Vice President Dick Cheney

Dick Cheney is not impressed with Sarah Palin's presidential resume, telling a radio host that he is concerned about her decision to abruptly resign her governor job in 2009.

"I've never gotten around the question of her having left the governorship of Alaska, mid-term," the former Vice President told radio host Laura Ingraham. "I've never heard that adequately explained."

He added that he'd "like to know more about that." Palin offered a plethora of reasons for the decision at the time she stepped down, most notably citing a slew of ethics investigations that she said paralyzed state government and required huge legal costs.

Cheney and Palin are generally considered two of the least popular Republican leaders in the country based on polling.

special election

Democrat Leads Fundraising War In NY-9 Special Election

Benjy Sarlin | September 2, 2011, 10:41AM

NY-09 candidates Bob Turner (R) and David Weprin (D)

It's looking rough for Democrats in the race to replace Anthony Weiner, where a poll yesterday showed the contest for the left-leaning seat all tied up between Democrat David Weprin and Republican Bob Turner. But Weprin does have one feather in his cap: superior cash.

Per the New York Times, the latest filings show Weprin with $451,000 raised through August 24 versus only $204,000 for Turner, a number that includes $65,000 of the Republican businessman's own money.

The big question now is whether national Republicans sense a potential Scott Brown moment in the making and drop significant cash of their own at the last minute. The NRCC gave Turner a $5,000 donation, but they haven't unleashed the floodgates of advertising money that they have in other races and Karl Rove's American Crossroads is also silent so far.

2012

So Much For Huntsman 2.0: The 'Crazy' Candidate Swings Right

Benjy Sarlin | September 2, 2011, 6:25AM

Jon Huntsman

Billing himself as the candidate of the "real world" and highlighting his breaks from party orthodoxy, Jon Huntsman has tried to brand himself as a pragmatic truth-teller in a GOP that has swung too far towards the hardline right.

But his rhetoric and policy hasn't always matched up with the broader message in recent days. The tension is most evident in his grand jobs plan, the centerpiece of which is a proposal to slash taxes for the wealthy while eliminating a plethora of popular breaks for homeowners and middle class Americans. Huntsman sells the move on its purity -- tax expenditures for corporations and average Americans alike would be dropped to lower rates -- but realistically, the plan has virtually no chance of passing Congressional muster. The Bowles-Simpson deficit commission, hardly a darling of the left, acknowledged as much in their report last year, suggesting lawmakers keep some of the most popular breaks -- like the mortgage interest deductions, exemptions for employer-provided health care, and the earned income tax credit -- in order to generate sufficient support for tax reform along the lines Huntsman proposes.

Read more »

special election

Upset Brewing? Poll Shows NY-9 Special Election Is Currently Tied

Benjy Sarlin | September 1, 2011, 6:17PM

NY-09 candidates Bob Turner (R) and David Weprin (D)

It's not looking good for Democrats in New York's 9th district, where voters will determine Anthony Weiner's successor on September 13th. A Republican-commissioned poll shows the race tied after a week in which Democratic nominee David Weprin fluffed a question on the size of the national debt.

The poll, by McLaughlin & Associates, found a 42-42 tie between Weprin and Republican Bob Turner among 300 likely voters surveyed. A poll last month by Siena University showed Weprin with a 46-40 lead, and even that was enough to raise alarm bells in the Democratic-leaning district.

Read more »

2012

Perry Slams 'Blatantly False' Attack Ad From Pro-Bachmann PAC

Benjy Sarlin | September 1, 2011, 4:32PM

A Super PAC supporting Michele Bachmann's campaign, Keep Conservatives United, threw one of the first on-air punches of the 2012 GOP primary this week, lighting into Rick Perry as a big spending governor who is not a "Tea Party guy." Now the Perry camp is pushing back hard, condemning the South Carolina TV ad and releasing a detailed fact check disputing its claims.

"Gov. Perry is a proven fiscal conservative, having cut taxes, signed six balanced budgets, and led Texas to become America's top job-creating state," Perry spokesman Ray Sullivan told reporters. "Congresswoman Bachmann's front-group ad is patently and provably false. Unlike Washington, the Texas budget is balanced, does not run deficits and limits spending, even as Texas added jobs and population in big numbers."

Read more »

2012

Jon Huntsman Fires New Hampshire Campaign Manager

Benjy Sarlin | September 1, 2011, 1:41PM

Jon Huntsman

Jon Huntsman is shaking up his staff in New Hampshire, dropping his campaign manager for the state, Ethan Elion, and replacing him with a former aide to Tim Pawlenty.

"Sarah Crawford Stewart, a seasoned New Hampshire strategist, will be taking over many of the day-to-day responsibilities in her role as New Hampshire senior adviser," a spokesman told the New Hampshire Union Leader. The campaign is very pleased with the leadership team we have in place in New Hampshire."

Stewart was Pawlenty's state director and also worked on John McCain's successful 2000 and 2008 primary campaigns.

It's a bit of a stretch to call any state a "must-win" for Huntsman given that he's barely registering in national polling at the moment, sharing the bottom-tier with candidates like Thad McCotter and Gary Johnson. But as a far as Huntsman has a path to the nomination, it runs through New Hampshire, where he's hoping he can appeal to independent and moderate voters to jumpstart his campaign.

2012

Poll: GOP Insiders Overwhelmingly Favor Romney

Benjy Sarlin | September 1, 2011, 1:09PM

GOP Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney (R-MA)

Republican "insiders" are wary of Rick Perry's ability to win, according to a survey by National Journal, picking Mitt Romney by a wide margin as the more electable candidate.

The poll, which regularly checks in with a pool of Republican and Democratic strategists, finds both parties in agreement that Romney is the superior candidate. Republicans think the GOP would be better off nominating him by a 69% to 31% margin. That number is even higher among Democratic insiders, 83% of whom see Romney as the better bet versus 17% for Perry.

Unnamed insiders from both parties cited questions about Perry's ability to win over independents given his resume as a hardline conservative, red-state governor. "Perry can fire up the base, but this election will be won in the middle, not on the fringes," one Republican said.

Given his recent appeals to the Tea Party, winning a poll of veteran Republican politicos may not be the most exciting achievement for Romney. And given that Perry is amassing a solid lead in national polls and surging in a number of early primary and caucus states, it may not be the most representative slice of GOP opinion either. A recent PPP poll of South Carolina, for example, showed Perry cleaning up not only with the conservative, Tea Party wing of the GOP, but with more moderate Republicans that should in theory be Romney's base.

Sarah Palin

Christine O'Donnell Takes To Twitter After Tea Party Rejection

Benjy Sarlin | September 1, 2011, 8:33AM

Sarah Palin and Christine O'Donnell

The epic drama between Sarah Palin, Christine O'Donnell, and the Tea Party of America over who would appear at an event in Iowa this weekend appears to have reached its conclusion: Palin is in. O'Donnell is out.

But that's about all they agree on. According to CNN, Palin's camp was upset after O'Donnell's staff told the Tea Party group that they had the ex-governor's support in joining the event, even claiming that the two had been exchanging text messages. The group's president, Ken Crow, finally dropped O'Donnell (after briefly re-inviting her) once Palin put her appearance "on hold."

O'Donnell, who is promoting her book "Troublemaker," took to Twitter to defend her behavior and suggested reporters were inventing Palin sources as part of a conspiracy to hurt the Tea Party.

Read more »

Rick Perry

Rick Perry Defends Early Praise For Clinton Health Care Plan

Benjy Sarlin | September 1, 2011, 6:15AM

Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX)

Rick Perry says a letter he wrote in 1993 praising Hillary Clinton's health care reform efforts is misunderstood and should not be taken as an endorsement of the law.

The correspondence, recently dug up by The Daily Caller, dates back to when Perry was serving as Agriculture Commissioner in Texas. In it, he asked that rural communities be taken into consideration as a task force led by First Lady Hillary Clinton prepared their recommendations. But he also had some kind words for Clinton personally, writing "I think your efforts in trying to reform the nation's health care system are most commendable."

Read more »

Jon Huntsman

Huntsman Debuts Jobs Plan: Tax Breaks For The Rich

Benjy Sarlin | August 31, 2011, 4:48PM

Jon Huntsman

Jon Huntsman is looking to reboot his flagging campaign with a new jobs plan, offering up a list of ideas to spur growth in a speech on Wednesday. But despite his recent breaks with party orthodoxy on issues like climate change, he stuck to the usual conservative line on revenue, putting tax breaks for the rich and corporations at the center of his proposal.

"I'm not running for president to promise solutions, I'm running to deliver solutions," he said, according to prepared remarks. "Some of my entitlement reforms come directly from the Paul Ryan Plan. Other solutions come from the Simpson-Bowles Commission - a bipartisan group that last year put forth some very sensible tax reforms."

Under Huntsman's proposal, the tax code would be simplified into three brackets of 8%, 14%, and 23%. In addition, the corporate tax rate would be lowered to 25%, and taxes on capital gains and dividends would be eliminated entirely.

Overall, however, the whole shift would be revenue neutral. How?

Read more »

Sarah Palin

Palin/O'Donnell Event Descends Into Total Chaos

Benjy Sarlin | August 31, 2011, 11:28AM

Sarah Palin

Update, 12:57 PM: According to NBC, Tea Party of America president Ken Crow said "I had to cancel O'Donnell," and is trying to lure Palin back to the event.

Update, 2:45 PM: Success! Palin sources tell RCP's Scott Conroy that the ex-governor will be in attendance.

First Sarah Palin was scheduled to attend the Tea Party of America's Iowa rally this weekend. Then Christine O'Donnell was invited. Then Christine O'Donnell was uninvited. Then she was re-invited. Now Palin is out. Maybe.

Easy to follow, right? According to the Wall Street Journal, Palin will not share the stage with O'Donnell, who she famously endorsed in 2010, because the ex-governor is sick of "continual lying" by the event's organizers. But there's still confusion over what's going on: Real Clear Politics' Scott Conroy disputed the report on Twitter, saying sources had told him the event was only "on hold," while a Tea Party of America official told reporter Shushanna Walshe the event was still a go after a talk with Palin.

It's easy to see where Palin might get a negative impression of the organizers, however. After initially asking O'Donnell to join the event, Tea Party of America's top officials split over their reasons for rescinding O'Donnell's initial invite, with president Ken Crow citing scheduling problems and co-founder Charles Gruschow citing widespread disdain for the former Senate candidate among Tea Party activists. They quickly brought her back into the fold, however, and Crow said they had "panicked" initially in dropping her.

Palin, who has yet to rule out a presidential bid, will still visit Iowa this weekend for other events.

Read more »

David Weprin

Gaffes Could Cost Democrats Anthony Weiner's Seat

Benjy Sarlin | August 31, 2011, 6:15AM

NY-09 candidates Bob Turner (R) and David Weprin (D)

Anthony Weiner's seat, which includes parts of Queens and Brooklyn, should be safe for Democrats, but the September 13 special election to replace him is proving surprisingly competitive. Democrat David Weprin is losing ground to Republican Bob Turner. Making matters worse for Democrats, Weprin has turned into a gaffe machine right as voters are tuning in for the final stretch.

The influential New York Daily News savaged Weprin over the weekend after he belly flopped on a simple question from their editors: what is the national debt? With a reported "deer in headlights" look, he twice guessed $4 trillion, about $10 trillion off from the correct answer. As cringe-worthy a moment as it was on its own, its impact is much worse in Weprin's case: he's been selling himself as a fiscal Mr. Fix-it, touting his eight years as chair of the City Council's finance committee as his top qualification.

Read more »

Christine O'Donnell

Christine O'Donnell Booted Off Tea Party Event With Sarah Palin

Benjy Sarlin | August 30, 2011, 3:59PM

Christine O'Donnell

Christine O'Donnell, back in the news this month promoting her new book, is no longer welcome at a Tea Party event with Sarah Palin this weekend.

O'Donnell was set to appear with Palin, who endorsed O'Donnell's 2010 Senate bid, at a rally in Indianola, IA. But officials at Tea Party of America, which is hosting the event, told the Wall Street Journal on Monday that they were dropping her. While the group's president cited scheduling problems as the cause, co-founder Charles Gruschow offered a very different explanation: backlash from local Tea Party activists upset over O'Donnell's inclusion.

"We decided not to have her speak," Gruschow said. "We felt it was in the best interest of the movement."

O'Donnell was a brief cause celebre for Tea Party activists in 2010, who helped her defeat heavily favored Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE) in a Senate primary before she was trounced in the general election by Democrat Chris Coons. But the magic seems to have faded after her defeat as her much-hyped book has only sold about 2,000 copies.

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2012

Mitt Romney To Attend First Big Tea Party Rally

Benjy Sarlin | August 30, 2011, 3:32PM

Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney will speak at a Tea Party Express rally in New Hampshire on Labor Day, his first appearance at a high profile event associated with the movement.

Romney's scheduled appearance, first reported on CNN, comes as he faces renewed pressure on his right flank thanks to Rick Perry's surging campaign. Perry was one of the earliest national politicians to jump on the grassroots bandwagon -- he made his famous "secession" comments at a Tea Party rally in April 2009 -- and is currently polling very well with self-identified Tea Partiers. He, Michele Bachmann, and Herman Cain will attend a forum with the Tea Party-leaning Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) in South Carolina on Labor Day.

Read more »

2012

Romney's Foreign Policy Speech Takes On 'The Harvard Faculty Lounge' And (Basically) Rick Perry

Benjy Sarlin | August 30, 2011, 11:19AM

GOP Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney (MA)

Mitt Romney took a pointed dig at Rick Perry in his own home state on Tuesday, alluding to his lack of business experience in an address to the Veterans of Foreign Wars in San Antonio.

"I am a conservative businessman," Romney told the VFW audience, which Perry had addressed the day before. "I have spent most of my life outside of politics, dealing with real problems in the real economy. Career politicians got us into this mess and they simply don't know how to get us out."

Romney has been playing up his private sector experience in the 2012 race, hoping to distinguish himself from fellow governor Perry, and it's likely the "career politicians" line is going to get a lot of spin before the race is over.

Romney began with a riff on the economy, but the audience was there for a foreign policy speech and that's what he delivered. Expanding on the themes of his "No Apologies" book, Romney repeatedly painted President Obama as a weak and ineffectual leader who kowtowed to tyrants.

The Obama administration, Romney said, "leaves us with the belief that America should become a lesser power. It flows from the conviction that if we are weak, tyrants will choose to be weak as well; that if we could just talk more, engage more, pass more U.N. resolutions, that peace will bill break out. That may be what they think in that Harvard faculty lounge, but it's not what they know on the battlefield."

But Romney crafted his anti-Obama message long before the president initiated a bombing campaign against Libya, which has all but destroyed dictator Moammar Qaddafi's regime and killed many of his family members. He also crafted it before the President ordered the death of Osama Bin Laden in an operation where he deliberately kept US ally Pakistan in the dark.

The president's increasingly hawkish resume sits uncomfortably with the "weak" message, but Romney did his best to square the circle. He detached Bin Laden's death from any White House action by playing up the Navy SEAL mission as a bipartisan affair, telling the crowd that "the final image that Osama bin Laden took with him straight to Hell" was not an elephant or donkey but an American flag. For Romney, it seems, that if on 9/11/01 we were all Americans, then on 5/2/11 we all ordered the Abottabad raid.

On Libya, Romney repeated a familiar GOP line that Obama had failed to explain the mission to the public or define its goals. Speaker Boehner has employed similar rhetoric, which has the benefit of appealing to both pro- and anti-intervention Republicans. Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul firmly opposed the NATO operation, while Romney supported the decision to attack Qaddafi's forces.

"Today, Qaddafi is on the run and we congratulate the Libyan people and the extraordinary professionalism of our men and women in the armed services," Romney said. "But when a president sends our men and women into harm's way, he must first explain their mission, define its success, plan for their victorious exit, provide them with the best weapons and armor in the world, and properly care for them when they come home." Unmentioned was the fact that so far not a single American soldier has died in the Libya operation.

While Romney pledged to cut waste in defense, he accused Obama of endangering the military by agreeing to "a budget process that could entail cutting defense spending by $850 billion." The number refers to the debt ceiling agreement between President Obama and House Republicans, which cuts defense spending $350 billion over the next decade but also includes a trigger that will automatically cut an additional $500 billion over the same period if a bipartisan committee can't agree to savings elsewhere. As Romney noted in the speech, incoming Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has warned the triggered cuts would be severe if enacted.

Perhaps the biggest takeaway from Romney and Perry's two VFW speeches is that the party does not have a clear post-Bush consensus on foreign policy at the moment beyond unconditional support for Israel and a general suspicion of international institutions. It's an economy-focused election so this isn't entirely surprising, but it also speaks to real disagreements within the GOP. Conservative commentators took note that Perry winked at both the more neoconservative and isolationist camps in the GOP in his VFW speech on Monday, condemning "military adventurism" while also calling on Americans to "renew our commitment to taking the fight to the enemy wherever they are before they strike at home." And that's nothing compared to some of the lower-tier candidates' contortions.

Sarah Palin

Who Doomed Sarah Palin's Presidential Dream?

Benjy Sarlin | August 30, 2011, 6:15AM

Sarah Palin

Sarah Palin is expected to make up her mind about a presidential campaign by the end of September, but it's not clear it matters much either way. Polls show relatively few Republicans clamoring for a Palin run on a national level as the one-time supernova is eclipsed by a crowded presidential contest and an array of new rising stars. About two-thirds of Republicans say they're satisfied with the current primary field.

It feels as if Palin's fabled 2012 run, a source of fervent speculation since before the 2008 contest even ended, has already gone out with a whimper. Palin is polarizing even within her own party and has shown little indication she can reverse the nation's long-settled perception of her as a media phenomenon with little appeal outside her limited fan base.

But how did she end up this way? And who is to blame? Here's a look at five of the leading culprits.

Read more »

Jon Bruning

Nebraska AG Jon Bruning's Land Deal With Student Loan Execs Under Scrutiny

Benjy Sarlin | August 29, 2011, 3:03PM

As he gears up his Senate run, Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning (R) is drawing heavy attention in the local press for his business dealings.

Last week the Omaha World-Herald dug into Bruning's finances, noting that he owns stakes in various businesses ranging from $12 million to $61 million in total value, while also owing high debt between $10 and $35 million to fund his investments, all accrued during a career as a public servant. Now, Democrats are pouncing on a follow-up story about a real estate deal he cut with the help of executives from a student loan company that he crossed paths with as attorney general.

In 2008, Bruning joined two executives from the company, Nelnet, to purchase a $675,000 lake house. But only a year earlier, he was embroiled in a controversy surrounding the same company when he waived a $1 million settlement with Nelnet over improper business practices. After critics pointed out that Nelnet execs had showered him with $16,000 in donations, he backed off the move.

"To me, it's incredibly tone deaf," Paul Johnson, campaign manager for Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE), whose seat Bruning is running for, told the World-Herald.

Bruning told the paper he has been friends with the executives in question for years and there is no conflict of interest since the company is not under investigation.

Mitt Romney

Romney: I'm Only Doubling My House, Technically

Benjy Sarlin | August 29, 2011, 1:25PM

GOP Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney (R-MA)

The size of the gigantic family compound set to rise like a phoenix from the ashes of Mitt Romney's $12 million teardown in California has been exaggerated in the press, according to Romney.

Sort of, at least. Romney told the publisher of the New Hampshire Union Leader, Joe McQuaid, that while the square footage of the new estate will -- as reported -- nearly quadruple in size once construction is complete, the number is misleading because it includes the garage and basement. According to McQuaid, Romney merely shrugged when pressed why he didn't try and correct the record more aggressively.

Depending on what he does with the place, Romney's "living space" versus "nonliving space" distinction may be somewhat blurry. If MTV Cribs has taught us anything, it's that basements in homes with eight-digit property values are more than just a dank storage pit.

h/t Politico

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