AR-SEN

How Blanche Lincoln Fell So, So Far Behind In Arkansas

Eric Kleefeld | September 7, 2010, 8:45AM

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

As we head into the true crunch time of the 2010 election, the crucial period between Labor Day and November 2, let's take a look at what might just be the steepest uphill climb for Democrats this fall: Holding on to the Arkansas Senate seat held by incumbent Dem Blanche Lincoln.

Just take a look at the TPM Poll Average to see how much ground Lincoln would have to make up to score a victory in November. The Republican nominee, Rep. John Boozman, is ahead of Lincoln by a whopping 60.3%-31.2%.

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AR-SEN

Bill Halter At Netroots: Blanche Lincoln Can Win (VIDEO)

Christina Bellantoni | July 23, 2010, 1:28PM

Arkansas Lieutenant Gov. Bill Halter (D)

Las Vegas -- Lt. Gov. Bill Halter said in an interview that his one-time primary rival embattled Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln can win reelection this fall, and believes she can frame it as a "classic" Republican v. Democrat race on the Arkansas ballot.

Can she win? "Yes, I think yes," Halter told TPM in an interview Thursday afternoon from the Rio Casino's Starbucks. Of course, he also believes he would have won the primary if he'd had more time. "Winning a primary against an incumbent senator is one of the hardest things to do in American politics," Halter said.

"Obviously it's a difficult year and everybody knows what the current polls show," Halter said. "I don't think there's any question that it's a tough year."

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Financial Reform

It's Done! Obama To Sign Wall Street Reform

Brian Beutler | July 15, 2010, 2:57PM

US Senators Harry Reid (D-NV) and Chris Dodd (D-CT)

It's done. The Senate this afternoon, by a vote of 60-39 passed the final version of Wall Street reform legislation -- the exact same version the House passed two weeks ago, which will now go the White House for a signature. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) said that the President plans to sign the bill next week.

The development, though expected for days, represents a major achievement for President Obama and congressional Democrats -- their first landmark bill since health care. And this time it's actually popular.

But getting here wasn't easy for Democrats.

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Blanche Lincoln

Lincoln: I Was Not The Deciding Vote On Health Care Reform

Brian Beutler | June 11, 2010, 1:15PM

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) may have hoped she'd put the primary behind her, but it will continue to haunt her for weeks to come. Now that she's running full-time in the general election against Rep. John Boozman, Lincoln is once again shoring up her right flank, tiptoeing away from the rhetoric she used to defeat Arkansas Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. The results are...awkward.

For instance, in an interview with the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, Lincoln tried to dispel the notion that she cast the deciding vote for health care reform, which remains unpopular in Arkansas.

"I wasn't the deciding vote," Lincoln said. "I was among a handful of five Democrats that worked on getting consensus."

There's some truth to that. But where did the Democrat-Gazette get the notion that Lincoln tipped health care into the Democrats' win column? From Blanche Lincoln, who in the below ad said, " I grew up in an Arkansas family where we were taught to solve problems, not through hate and anger, but by coming together and getting something done. That's why I cast the deciding vote to pass health care reform."

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2010 elections

Super Duper Tuesday's Top Three Super Surprises

Rachel Slajda | June 9, 2010, 11:54AM

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), US Sen candidate Alvin Greene (D-SC), Rep. Bob Inglis (R-SC)

Last night's elections lacked any Dewey/Truman moments, but there were enough surprises to make it interesting.

Lincoln Defeats Halter
Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) survived to fight the final round in the general election last night. But it wasn't supposed to be that way. For days -- in fact in the final hours of her runoff -- Arkansas insiders expected Lincoln to lose, while supporters of Bill Halter were pre-emptively dancing in the end zones. Lincoln's obituary was written. But both camps underestimated her ability to get out the vote, and she defeated Halter 52 to 48.

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AR-SEN

Lincoln Fends Off Primary Challenge, Heads To Tough Reelection Fight

Christina Bellantoni | June 8, 2010, 11:02PM

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AK)

Sen. Blanche Lincoln fended off a tough Democratic primary challenge tonight, besting progressive opponent Lt. Gov. Bill Halter in a runoff election marked by a high level of voter discontent with Washington. But this race was just the beginning for the embattled Lincoln, who in November will face Rep. John Boozman (R-AR), a former Razorback player with a conservative record.

Lincoln earned 51 percent to Halter's 49 percent with 77 of precincts reporting as the Associated Press called the race for the incumbent senator, a conservative Democrat who sometimes frustrates her party's leaders.

In a victory speech tonight, Lincoln thanked her supporters, saying they'd sent a message that's "loud and clear, and that message was that the vote of this senator is not for sale." She said she had stood up to special interests. "We are head to November with this message," Lincoln said.

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AR-SEN

PCCC Releases Online Anti-Lincoln Ad Featuring 'Pauline'

Rachel Slajda | June 8, 2010, 9:37AM

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

The Progressive Change Campaign Committee has launched a last-ditch web ad against Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) ahead of her primary today against Lieutenant Gov. Bill Halter. The ad features a PCCC member from Arkansas named Pauline Wildman, who also stars in a Halter TV ad accusing Lincoln of wanting to cut Social Security.

The ad (below) links to the Halter video spot.

"Without Social Security, I'd be out on the street," Wildman says in the TV ad.

Read more »

AR-SEN

Poll: Halter Up By Four In AR-SEN Dem Runoff

Eric Kleefeld | June 4, 2010, 1:48PM

Arkansas Lt. Governor Bill Halter (D)

The new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of the Arkansas Senate Democratic primary runoff gives Lt. Gov. Bill Halter a four-point lead over incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln, heading into the big showdown this Tuesday, June 8.

The numbers: Halter 49%, Lincoln 45%. The poll of likely Dem primary voters has a ±4% margin of error. The TPM Poll Average gives Halter a lead of 49.7%-44.9%. However, there is a huge caveat: Research 2000 has been the only pollster to publicly release numbers on this race during the runoff period, so we are dependent on only one source of data.

Daily Kos's Jed Lewison writes: "With the run-off coming up this Tuesday (June 8) and voting preferences pretty much settled, it seems like the biggest question is whether Halter or Lincoln will have a better turnout operation. Much of that depends on the enthusiasm of each candidate's supporters, and if Joe Sestak's campaign in Pennsylvania is any indication, Bill Halter is in pretty good shape -- as long as his supporters demonstrate their enthusiasm at the ballot box."

AR-SEN

Bill Clinton In Blanche Lincoln Ad: Unions 'Using You And Manipulating Your Votes' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | June 4, 2010, 9:31AM

Former President Bill Clinton and Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) has a new ad featuring former President Bill Clinton, her state's former governor and favorite son, attacking the national labor unions for going after her in the contested Democratic primary runoff.

The ad uses footage of Bill at a rally for Lincoln last week. Bill is shown pointing out a newspaper article to the audience. "Here is an article from the Washington Post, it says some national unions made a decision a few months ago that they wanted to make Senator Blanche Lincoln the quote 'poster child' for what happens when a Democrat crosses them," Bill says, then adding after a quick cut: "This is about using you and manipulating your votes...If you want to be Arkansas's advocate, vote for somebody who will fight for you. Vote for Blanche Lincoln."

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AR-SEN

SEIU Releases Final Anti-Lincoln Ad In AR-SEN (VIDEO)

Eric Lach | June 2, 2010, 1:01PM

An image from an SEIU ad targeting Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

The SEIU has been a big part of Big Labor's big push against Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) in the Arkansas Senate Democratic primary race. With the runoff days away, the group has released a final ad attacking Lincoln's record and supporting her opponent, Bill Halter.

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AR-SEN

Anti-Lincoln Ad Attacks 'Big Oil Blanche' (VIDEO)

Eric Lach | June 2, 2010, 10:38AM

New ad attacking Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) on campaign contributions from oil and gas interests.

An environmental group has released an ad painting Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) as an ally of Big Oil, and features liberal scourges George W. Bush, Dick Cheney and BP.

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Blanche Lincoln

Biden Sends Fundraising E-Mail For Blanche Lincoln

Jillian Rayfield | June 2, 2010, 10:26AM

Vice President Joe Biden

Vice President Joe Biden sent out a fundraising e-mail for Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) today, saying "Lincoln always does what is right for Arkansas" and that she is the state's "strongest advocate."

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AR-SEN

Blanche Lincoln Getting Out The Early Vote

Eric Kleefeld | June 1, 2010, 5:35PM

Sen. Blanche Lambert Lincoln (D-AR)

The campaign of Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) is actively getting out the early vote, which opened today, in the home stretch of the June 8 Democratic Senate primary runoff against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter.

A cell phone text message sent by Lincoln's campaign to her supporter list said: "Early voting has begun! Find your early voting location, take a friend and go vote for Blanche Lincoln! http://bit.ly/ARvote Forward this message to 5 friends!"

This represents a key lesson from the 2008 election, when the Obama campaign vigorously began getting out the vote right from when the early-vote periods opened in different states, banking leads over John McCain in key states that he was unable to overcome when November 4 came around. In a state with liberalized absentee and early-voting laws, "Election Day" truly begins with early voting, and with the polls closing on a particular Tuesday evening down the road.

The TPM Poll Average currently gives Halter a lead of 47.3%-44.7%

Bill Halter

Halter Releases New Ad: 'The Only Choice For Change' (VIDEOS)

Jillian Rayfield | June 1, 2010, 1:25PM

Arkansas Lt. Governor Bill Halter (D)

Bill Halter (D), who is campaigning in the Democratic primary runoff against Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) for her Arkansas Senate seat, released two new TV ads today that tout Halter as "the only choice for change."

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AR-SEN

SEIU Ad Attacks Lincoln For Wall Street Bailout (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | June 1, 2010, 12:11PM

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

The politically powerful union SEIU has a new ad attacking Sen. Blanche Lincoln in the June 8 Arkansas Democratic primary runoff, going after Lincoln's vote for the TARP bailout.

"Blanche Lincoln claims she's standing firm against Wall Street. But Lincoln voted to use our tax dollars to bail out Wall Street banks," the announcer says. This is a clear effort to discredit Lincoln's current work on financial reform, and to leverage the TARP issue that already helped to unseat Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT) at his state GOP convention.

The TPM Poll Average currently gives Lt. Gov. Bill Halter a lead of 47.3%-44.7%.

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AR-SEN

Bill Clinton Records Radio Ad for Blanche Lincoln (AUDIO)

Eric Kleefeld | June 1, 2010, 11:47AM

Former President Bill Clinton and Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

Former President Bill Clinton stars in a new radio ad for Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), who is in a heated Democratic primary runoff against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter in Clinton's native state of Arkansas.

"We've never had a Chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee before, and we shouldn't give it up now," says Clinton. "In Washington everybody was betting Wall Street would beat her efforts to clean up trading practices that led our country to the brink of economic collapse, but they were wrong, she won that fight. And, when President Obama needed her help on health care reform she stood with him to secure health coverage and better and more affordable care. She took a lot of heat for that vote, but you and I know she did the right thing."

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AR-SEN

New Lincoln Ads: 'I Won't Back Down To The Washington Unions' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | June 1, 2010, 11:21AM

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), who is in a heated Democratic primary runoff for June 8 with the more liberal Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, has a new pair of TV and radio ads for the home stretch of the campaign -- proudly declaring her independence from the labor unions that have backed her opponent.

"I'm Blanche Lincoln, and I know you're angry at Washington. Believe me, I heard you on May 18. I'm even being attacked for where my family lives," Lincoln says in the TV ad, referring to the first-round primary in which she came in first place with 45%, but with less than the 50% needed to win. She is also apparently referring to the Halter campaign's gloating over Lincoln's initial trouble voting in the primary, after she had sent away for an absentee ballot and had not mailed it back. "But I won't back down to the Washington unions or the Wall Street banks that don't care about Arkansas."

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AR-SEN

Lincoln And Halter Launch 'Countdown' Campaign Tours

Eric Kleefeld | June 1, 2010, 9:15AM

Arkansas Lt. Governor Bill Halter (D) and Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

Today is a big day in the home stretch of the Arkansas Democratic Senate primary runoff, which ends June 8. Early voting begins today, with the first votes set to be cast in this barn-burner contest. And incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln and Lt. Gov. Bill Halter are hitting the trail hard today.

Lincoln's tour tomorrow is called the "Countdown to Victory," and will involve stops in Little Rock, Pine Bluff, Star City, Monticello, Hamburg, Warren and Lake Village, in events that are officially billed as "early vote meet-ups." Take this as a sign that the Lincoln campaign has learned a key lesson that the Obama campaign and the political world at large discovered in 2008 -- that "Election Day" really begins on the first day of early voting, and get-out-the-vote efforts should be going in full force from there on.

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AR-SEN

Progressives Launch Ad Campaign Saying Halter's Just Like Bill Clinton

Christina Bellantoni | May 28, 2010, 10:34AM

Online ad funded by the Progressive Change Campaign Committee

Lt. Gov. Bill Halter's supporters have a message for Arkansas Democrats Sen. Blanche Lincoln is attempting to woo with a visit from Bubba this afternoon: Halter is a lot like Bill Clinton! Progressive Change Campaign Committee is paying for online ads today linked to the Lincoln-Clinton rally in Little Rock.

You can see the ad, obtained by TPMDC, to the left. A PCCC official said the goal is to highlight Arkansas voters "who once found Bill Clinton an inspiring rising star and now feel that way about Bill Halter." The online ad campaign links to a page featuring quotes from Arkansans, like Greg Starting who said Clinton "gave us hope for change then" and Halter "gives us hope for much needed change now." Or a Fayetteville resident who says Halter is "this generation's Bill Clinton."

The TPM Poll Average of this race has Halter leading 47.3 to 44.7 percent, with him jumping into the lead for the first time yesterday. The PCCC ad campaign is another example of how both sides are playing for keeps as the June 8 Democratic primary runoff approaches. The positive spin is a different strategy from the AFL-CIO, also backing Halter, which is attempting to target Clinton for NAFTA in advance of the visit. The union accuses Lincoln and Clinton of sending Arkansas jobs to Mexico and Canada, calling them the "Dynamic NAFTA Duo." We asked Clinton aides for a comment and will update if we hear back.

AR-SEN

Pro-Halter Labor Group Targets Seniors With Social Security Mailer

Christina Bellantoni | May 27, 2010, 4:34PM

US Senate candidate Bill Halter (D-AR) mailer.

Pro-Bill Halter labor groups who want to see Sen. Blanche Lincoln unseated are targeting senior citizens with a new mailer in advance of the Democratic primary runoff June 8.

"Sixteen years in Washington have changed Senator Blanche Lincoln. She's forgotten how tough times are for retirees," reads the mailer, obtained by TPMDC. It will be sent to 20,000 Arkansas homes and was paid for by the Alliance for Retired Americans, a seniors group affiliated with the AFL-CIO.

The mailer cites six Lincoln votes to increase Social Security taxes in 1993, 1994, 1998 and 2000, and for a budget that would have cut benefits. It boosts Halter, the lieutenant governor, by noting his tenure running the Social Security Administration under President Clinton. "Bill Halter will fight to protect Medicare and strengthen Social Security," the mailer claims, asking people to vote June 8.

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AR-SEN

Halter Outraises Lincoln But Lacks The Cash

Christina Bellantoni | May 27, 2010, 3:13PM

Arkansas Lieutenant Gov. Bill Halter (D)

Arkansas Lt. Gov. Bill Halter outraised Sen. Blanche Lincoln in the most recent fundraising period as they battle for the Democratic primary runoff, but started the second phase of the election with far less in the bank than the incumbent senator.

Halter raised more than $777,000 to Lincoln's just over $552,000. But while she has $2 million in the bank, he had $494,549 according to the Federal Election Commission paperwork the campaign filed today covering April 29 through May 19. The primary election, which had Lincoln at 45 percent, Halter at 43 percent and a conservative Democrat earning 13 percent, was held May 18. That means these most recent figures don't reveal much about whether Halter received a boost from forcing a runoff. Team Halter portrayed today's figures as Lincoln being in "dire trouble," touting a new poll showing him leading the senator by 3 points. They also noted that nearly half of her fundraising haul came from political action committees, while his money came from individuals with an average contribution of less than $40.

After today's poll, the TPM Poll Average for the first time has Halter leading Lincoln 47.3%-44.7%. As I reported earlier this week, it's gotten nastier between the two Democrats in the final two weeks.

AR-SEN

Poll: Halter Leads Lincoln By Three Points

Eric Kleefeld | May 27, 2010, 2:07PM

Arkansas Lt. Governor Bill Halter (D) and Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

The new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of the Arkansas Democratic Senate primary runoff shows incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln narrowly trailing her more liberal challenger, Lt. Gov. Bill Halter.

The numbers: Halter 47%, Lincoln 44%. The survey of likely voters has a 5% margin of error. A previous overnight snap poll that Research 2000 did for Democracy For America, conducted the night of the May 18 first-round primary, gave Halter an edge of 48%-46%.

The TPM Poll Average shows Halter ahead by 47.3%-44.7%.

Read more »

AR-SEN

Lincoln Began Arkansas Dem Senate Runoff With $2 Million Cash On Hand

Eric Kleefeld | May 27, 2010, 11:29AM

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

The campaign of Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), who is in a June 8 Democratic primary runoff against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, has announced that it had $2 million cash on hand going into the runoff sprint.

The latest Federal Election Commission pre-runoff filing, which is due today, reveals that Lincoln had $2 million cash on hand. The filing covers activity from April 29 to May 19, the day after the first-round primary. During that period, Lincoln raised $552,189 and spent $1.6 million in the run-up to the May 18 primary.

We asked the Halter campaign if the update on their numbers was available yet. They said they will have it later today. The TPM Poll Average gives Lincoln a bare edge over Halter of 45.2%-45.1%.

AR-SEN

Lincoln: Sure, I'll Debate Halter -- As Soon As He Takes A Stand On Card Check Legislation

Ben Frumin | May 27, 2010, 9:15AM

AR Sen. candidates Bill Halter (D) and Blanche Lincoln (D)

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) would be happy to debate Lt. Gov. Bill Halter -- but only if he takes a clear stand on the Employee Free Choice Act (the flagship legislation of the labor movement), her campaign announced in a release last night.

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AR-SEN

Union Puts Out Anti-Lincoln Ad (VIDEO)

Eric Lach | May 26, 2010, 5:43PM

CWA ad attacking Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) on trade.

The Communication Workers Of America have joined big labor's crusade against incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) in the run up to the June 8 Democratic primary runoff between her and Lt. Gov. Bill Halter.

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AR-SEN

Halter Ad Accuses Lincoln Of Voting To Cut Social Security (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | May 26, 2010, 4:20PM

Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D-AR) and Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

Bill Halter has a new ad in the Arkansas Democratic Senate primary runoff, touting his opposition to privatizing Social Security and accusing incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln of voting to cut the program.

The ad features friends and family members of Halter, most notably his father Bill Halter, Sr. "Bill fought Bush's plan to privatize it," says one of his friends. "And Bill will never do what Blanche Lincoln did," another friend says, followed by another: "Vote to cut Medicare and Social Security."

The ad's press release includes a speech that Halter, a former Deputy Commissioner of Social Security, gave in 2002 while stumping for Mark Pryor's Senate campaign: "If you divert a sixth of the Social Security payroll tax into private accounts and out of the Social Security trust fund, you've just created more than a trillion dollar hole in the trust fund."

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AR-SEN

Blanche Lincoln's New Ad: I Fought Wall Street -- And I Won (VIDEO)

Ben Frumin | May 25, 2010, 3:55PM

AR Sen. candidates Bill Halter (D) and Blanche Lincoln (D)

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) -- locked in a tough runoff with Lt. Gov. Bill Halter in Arkansas' June 8 Democratic Senate primary runoff -- wants progressives back home to know something about her: She stood up to Wall Street.

Lincoln's latest advertisement -- which seems to be targeted at liberals in her party -- opens with none other than Rachel Maddow declaring: "Breaking news at this hour, the United States Senate has just passed the Wall Street reform bill."

And who do we have to thank for that?

"The Senate legislation was largely shepherded by Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln," the narrator says.

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AR-SEN

Round Two! Lincoln And Halter Throw Punches While Runnin' For The Runoff

Christina Bellantoni | May 24, 2010, 2:56PM

A wild boar, and images from attack mailers targeting Blanche Lincoln (above) and Bill Halter (below)

Derivatives, Bubba and shoe leather -- the Democratic candidates in the Arkansas Senate runoff are going to be pounding the pavement and pulling out all the stops in the final 15 days of campaigning. Sen. Blanche Lincoln is bringing in the big guns for a kickoff rally Friday with former President Bill Clinton in Little Rock. Lt. Gov. Bill Halter has a progressive army on his side as national groups and labor unions send supporters his way to help knock on doors and get-out-the-vote.

Both camps say they can do a better job of getting their voters to return to the polls June 8, but statistics prove runoffs are tricky business.

In the meantime, buckle up. It's about to get a lot nastier. The state's favorite animal is a razorback, after all.

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AR-SEN

Bill Clinton To Campaign For Blanche Lincoln In Arkansas

Jillian Rayfield | May 21, 2010, 5:24PM

Fmr. President Bill Clinton

Bill Clinton is heading to Arkansas next Friday to campaign for Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D), who is currently in a tight runoff with Lt. Gov. Bill Halter.

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AR-SEN

Down To The Wire: Dueling AR-SEN Dem Candidates Will Need Loads Of Cash In Runoff

Eric Kleefeld | May 21, 2010, 11:25AM

Lt. Gov Bill Halter (D-AR) and Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

The Arkansas Senate Democratic primary runoff will be a sprint to June 8, with Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) and her primary challenger Bill Halter having to spend a lot of money in the next two and a half weeks. So how much do they have?

Janine Parry, a political science professor at the University of Arkansas-Fayetteville, told TPMDC that for the runoff, the campaigns could potentially have to spend "probably close to as much as they spent already."

As of the most recent pre-primary Federal Election Commission reports, covering the period up to April 28, three weeks before the primary, Lincoln had spent 4,808,505, and Halter had spent $2,081,323.

Read more »

AR-SEN

New SEIU Ad Attacks Blanche Lincoln For Big Oil Ties (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | May 21, 2010, 9:01AM

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

A soon-to-be-launched ad campaign by the SEIU will attack Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) for her ties to oil and gas companies.

Lincoln is currently in a tight runoff against Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter for the Democratic nomination for Senator. The runoff will be held June 8.

Read more »

AR-SEN

Halter's New Ad: 'The Momentum is Building' (VIDEO)

Ben Frumin | May 20, 2010, 5:52PM

Arkansas Lieutenant Gov. Bill Halter (D)

Lt. Governor Bill Halter (D-AR), who's pushed Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) to a June 8 runoff in the Democrats' Arkansas Senate primary, is up with a new ad today.

"The momentum is building," Halter says. "There's no question about it."

The ad goes on to show images of Halter shaking hands, hugging supporters, petting a dog and paying a bill.

"Three more weeks, two more candidates, one choice for change," Halter says.

Read more »

AR-SEN

Halter Tells TPMDC: I Won Voters All Over Arkansas And I Can Win Runoff

Christina Bellantoni | May 20, 2010, 9:38AM

Arkansas Lieutenant Gov. Bill Halter (D)

Arkansas Lt. Gov. Bill Halter declared in an interview that he's a stronger general election candidate than Sen. Blanche Lincoln, pointing to his strong showing statewide in Tuesday's Democratic Senate primary in defiance of conventional wisdom that a progressive favorite would only win urban districts. By his math, over 55 percent of the Democratic primary electorate picked someone other than Lincoln. He likes those odds for their June 8 runoff.

"The fact is we won counties in every part of the state," Halter told TPMDC in a wide-ranging interview last night. He said he will keep telling everyone for the next three weeks that "if you send the same people to Washington you're going to wind up getting the same results."

Conservative Democrat D.C. Morrison pulled in 13 percent of the vote, and told TPMDC yesterday he won't be backing Lincoln or Halter. Are his voters up for grabs? Former DNC Chairman Howard Dean thinks so, telling me this week that "anybody could win this one" since the conservative's voters probably aren't enchanted by Lincoln. "[Morrison's] voters stay home or they vote for the anti-establishment candidate," Dean said.

Read more »

AR-SEN

Bill Halter's Base -- Rural Conservative Voters?

Eric Kleefeld | May 20, 2010, 8:52AM

Arkansas Lt. Governor Bill Halter (D) and Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

Did Bill Halter benefit from a hidden conservative vote in Tuesday's Arkansas Democratic primary against incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln, despite having run to Lincoln's left? And will those voters be back again for Halter in three weeks' time, when the runoff is held?

If the voting patterns of this race followed a strict left-right dynamic, we might expect to have seen Halter do well in the more urban, relatively liberal pockets of the Little Rock area, and for Lincoln to perform better in rural Arkansas.

But in fact, it was Lincoln who won Pulaski County (Little Rock), by a margin of 52%-40%, and she also won Jefferson County (Pine Bluff) by 51%-39%. Halter made up the difference and nearly caught Lincoln in the popular vote with stronger showings in many rural counties, especially in his home area of southern Arkansas. So how did this happen?

Read more »

AR-SEN

Poll: Halter Has Two-Point Lead Over Lincoln

Eric Kleefeld | May 19, 2010, 6:17PM

Arkansas Lt. Governor Bill Halter (D) and Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

An overnight snap poll from Research 2000/Democracy For America suggests that Bill Halter is potentially beginning the Democratic primary runoff for Senate in Arkansas with a lead over incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln.

The numbers: Halter 48%, Lincoln 46%. The survey of people who voted in Tuesday's first round of the Democratic primary has a ±4.5% margin of error.

The TPM Poll Average gives Lincoln an insignificant edge of 45.2%-45.1% in a direct two-way race with Halter -- but keep in mind that this data set is almost entirely from polls taken before the primary, and has a lot of asterisks and caveats to go with it.

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AR-SEN

Progressives Fight Lincoln To A Draw In Arkansas

Evan McMorris-Santoro | May 18, 2010, 11:11PM

AR Lt. Governor Bill Halter and Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

Updated 11:55 ET

Settle in, kids -- this one's going to overtime. National progressives failed to topple Sen. Blanche Lincoln in tonight, sending the hard-fought Arkansas Democratic Senate primary into a three-week sprint to a June 8 run-off election between Lincoln and the choice of left-wing Democrats, Lt. Gov. Bill Halter.

With 62% of precincts reporting, Lincoln and Halter are tied at 43% each, though Lincoln is leading the popular vote. Conservative alternative D.C. Morrison has a surprising 14%.

Progressives will see this as a victory. Challenging an incumbent Senator in a primary is tough in any circumstances, and Lincoln's considerable war chest and political savvy made this a particularly tough challenge. Still, Lincoln's resilience shows through in the fact that the full force of organized labor and the netroots failed to defeat her on the first ballot.

Turnout for run-offs is generally quite low, which could make the race anybody's game. But Lincoln has proven to be a tough fighter, while Halter seemingly failed to live up to the expectations his national supporters set for him when he jumped in the primary on March 1. They spent millions trying to take out Lincoln so far -- now they'll have to dig deep to do it again.

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AR-SEN

Primary Day PCCC Ads Slam Lincoln As 'Not A Real Democrat'

Eric Lach | May 18, 2010, 9:59AM

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) and Arkansas Lt. Governor Bill Halter (D)

The Progressive Change Campaign Committee is going up with primary day ads attacking Sen. Blanch Lincoln (D-AR), which it says will be seen by hundreds of thousands of Arkansas voters by the times the polls close tonight.

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2010 elections

Super Duper Tuesday With Sprinkles: Previewing The Big Primaries

Evan McMorris-Santoro | May 17, 2010, 7:40PM

From top left: KY Republican Rand Paul, KY Republican Trey Grayson, PA Democrat Arlen Specter, AR Democrat Bill Halter, PA Democrat Joe Sestak and AR Democrat Blanche Lincoln

This is the day we've been waiting for. By the end of Tuesday night, we'll know if Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) could still have a job next year, if angry progressives are a threat and if the tea partiers will hand Mitch McConnell a defeat in his home state.

It's 2010's first Super Tuesday -- and the political landscape could look much different when all is said and done.

Read more »

NRSC

National GOP: Tuesday's Primaries Show That Obama is Weak (No Matter What)

Eric Kleefeld | May 17, 2010, 6:08PM

President Barack Obama

The national GOP is already spinning tomorrow's Democratic primaries as a defeat for President Obama -- that even if Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) and Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) win against their intra-party challengers, the fact that there have been close races at all show that Obama is in political trouble.

In an e-mail sent out to reporters by National Republican Senatorial Committee Executive Director Rob Jesmer, much light is made of news reports saying that Obama did not want to be seen campaigning for Specter, who could potentially lose tomorrow:

But the fact that the President of the United States and the most popular member of the Democratic Party sees serious political risk in publicly campaigning for a Democratic Senator, in a Democratic primary, and in a key swing state, speaks volumes. At best the White House political operation will narrowly win two Democratic primaries tomorrow, at worst they lost both after being heavily involved at the outset. It should raise serious questions in the minds of Democratic Senate candidates whether the President and the Democrats' Washington agenda will be a benefit or a detriment to their campaigns this November. Recent history and current polling suggests strongly that it will be the latter.

The full memo is after the jump.

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