Democrats

Dead Dems Walking: TPM's List Of Candidates Who've Been Written Off By Their Party

Brian Beutler | November 2, 2010, 7:24AM

Majority Leader Steny Hoyer with other House Democrats

Returns for 435 House elections will start rolling in a few hours from now. Well before they do, though, most Dems had long conceded that more than a handful of races are already lost. With these seats for all intents and purposes off the table before the polls opened, the number of truly contested seats the GOP needs to win control of the House is effectively much smaller than the magic 39.

Assuming the House does change hands, then, the big open question is how big the swing will be. There are scores of seats in play, but the battle lines have already moved past over a dozen House members who, in most cases, have already been written off by their own party.

If you're keeping score tonight, don't hold your breath for any of these Democrats.

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Health Care

Bucking The Trend? Dems In Tough Races Run On Vote For Health Care Reform (VIDEO)

Brian Beutler | October 14, 2010, 9:10AM

Rep. John Lewis (D-GA), House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Rep. John Larson (D-CT)

The conventional wisdom suggests that Democrats are "running scared" from health care reform. But the truth is that most Democrats have nothing to be afraid of -- and those who do, by and large, voted against it. Of course, some of the vulnerable Dems who voted for the bill are happy to avoid the subject. But a surprising number are running on reform, in ads, op-eds, and debates in their states and districts.

While it's true that a number of the most conservative and vulnerable Dems are outwardly repudiating their party's leadership, Speaker Pelosi herself yesterday sought to set the record straight on Democratic pride in reform.

"It's important to note -- and I say this all the time -- the plural of anecdote is not data," she told reporters. "At least 200 members are out there boasting the benefit of the health care bill. At least. There may be some who did vote for the bill who are not talking it up -- they didn't vote for it. There are others who are soft peddling it, maybe, because other issues are working for them better. "

Below the top five examples of Democrats turning the CW on its head.

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Bush Tax Cuts

Rep. Brad Ellsworth: I'd Keep All Tax Cuts And I Want To Vote Now (VIDEO)

Christina Bellantoni | September 22, 2010, 5:54PM

Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) said today he wants to extend the Bush-era tax cuts for every income bracket and said he's not sure what House Democratic leaders are going to decide about holding a vote.

"I don't think now is the right time to let those tax breaks expire," Ellsworth told Neil Cavuto on Fox News. "I would vote to extend both all across the board. ... [W]e should pass those directly, and we should do it before we go home, before we recess."

Ellsworth was one of the 31 Democrats to sign a letter asking Speaker Nancy Pelosi to keep the tax cuts for the wealthy. (Our updating list on wavering Democrats and their positions here.) He's also in a unique position among the Democrats on this issue because he is running in a statewide race for the seat of retiring Sen. Evan Bayh (D). His rival Dan Coats (R) wants them extended permanently for everyone.

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IN-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: GOPer Coats Up 21 Points In IN-SEN Race

Thomas Rhiel | August 10, 2010, 12:37PM

Former Senator Dan Coats (R) and Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D), candidates for US Senate in Indiana

In the race to fill retiring Sen. Evan Bayh's (D) seat in Indiana, Republican former Sen. Dan Coats has a considerable lead over Democratic Rep. Brad Ellsworth, a new Rasmussen survey finds. The poll has Coats ahead of Ellsworth 50%-29%.

Coats's 21-point margin over Ellsworth is identical to the one he had in Rasmussen's last survey of the race from July 8, and it's even more favorable to Coats than the results from a Coats internal poll released last week, which showed Coats up 50%-35%.

The TPM Poll Average has Coats ahead 50.0%-31.2%. The margin of error of the latest Rasmussen poll is ±4.5 percentage points.

Check out TPMDC's full coverage of the race here.

IN-SEN

Dem Ellsworth Has Cash Advantage In Indiana Senate Race

Evan McMorris-Santoro | July 15, 2010, 12:34PM

Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN)

At the end of the second quarter, Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) holds a small cash-on-hand advantage over former Sen. Dan Coats (R) in the race to succeed the retiring Sen. Evan Bayh (D) in Indiana. Ellsworth had $1.2 million in the bank as of June 30, while the Coats campaign will report just over $1 million when its report becomes available.

Coats had the fundraising advantage in the second quarter, though his efforts to raise money in the quarter were likely buoyed by the competitive primary he faced on May 4. According to reports, Coats raised $2.1 million and spent just over $1 million between April 1 and June 30. Ellsworth raised "nearly" $1.7 million, according to reports.

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IN-SEN

Dem Ellsworth Takes Indirect Jab At GOP Opponent's Lobbying Past In New IN-SEN Ad (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | July 6, 2010, 3:34PM

Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN)

Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN), the Democratic nominee for the open Senate seat of retiring Dem Evan Bayh, has launched his first TV ad of the campaign. Ellsworth cast himself as an anti-Washington candidate taking on Washington lobbyists -- a not-so-subtle attack against his Republican opponent, former Sen. Dan Coats, who had been a lobbyist for the past decade.

"One thing that 25 years as a sheriff teaches you is zero tolerance for bull. There's too much at stake. But out in Washington it's like they live and breathe the stuff," Ellsworth says. "They waste our money. They take care of special interests. And they don't care if lobbyists write the laws or if our jobs get shipped overseas. I'm Brad Ellsworth and I approve this message because the special interests and lobbyists already have enough senators on their side."

Ellsworth never directly mentions Coats in the ad, but appears to be laying the groundwork for further attacks down the road. Ellsworth begins this general election as a severe underdog, with the TPM Poll Average giving Coats a lead of 49.4%-33.6%.

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IN-SEN

Indiana Dems Officially Nominate Ellsworth To Run For Bayh's Seat

Evan McMorris-Santoro | May 15, 2010, 3:03PM

Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN)

Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) officially received his party's nomination to replace retiring Sen. Evan Bayh by the Indiana Democratic Central Committee this afternoon.

Ellsworth, who first won his seat in Congress in 2006, has been expected to be the Democratic Senate nominee since shortly after Bayh announced his retirement in February.

As the Indianapolis Star reports, Ellsworth's nomination today was largely a ceremonial affair. Ellsworth will now face former Sen. Dan Coats, who won the Republican nomination in a May 4 primary.

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2010 elections

First-Quarter Fundraising Roundup

Eric Kleefeld | April 16, 2010, 6:25PM

Rep. Tom Perriello (D-VA)

Here are some highlights from the first-quarter political fundraising:

• In the Republican primary to face Rep. Tom Perriello (D-VA), the incumbent Perriello raised about three times more than the entire GOP field combined.

• Businessman Bruce O'Donoghue, who is seeking the Republican nomination to run against Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL), announced that he raised $305,000, plus $50,000 of his own money, and has $308,000 on hand. Grayson, who is well known for his attacks against the Republicans, previously announced that he raised $803,000, and has $1.5 million on hand.

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Abortion

Dominos: Democratic Health Care Skeptics Fall Into Line For Reform

Brian Beutler | March 19, 2010, 6:35PM

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA); inset (clockwise): Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN), Rep. Allen Boyd (D-FL), Rep. John Boccieri (D-FL) and Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D-FL)

Yesterday, it was clear House Speaker Nancy Pelosi had built real momentum for passing health care reform this Sunday--but she was also dealing with a tricky landscape. She hadn't converted enough health care skeptics in her caucus to make up for the fact that several anti-abortion members are threatening to bolt over the Senate bill's abortion language, she was facing revolt from two separate members who were expected to vote for the final package, and the remaining holdouts were never going to be easy pickups.

Today that all changed.

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Switcheroo

Rep. Ellsworth Confirms He'll Vote 'Yes' On Health Care

Jillian Rayfield | March 19, 2010, 5:37PM

Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN)

Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN), a pro-life Democrat who voted "yes" on the House health care bill but was undecided on the Senate bill, has released a statement announcing his support for the bill.

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Democrats

Pelosi Picks Off No Votes -- But Has Yet To Woo Toughest Reps On Health Care

Brian Beutler | March 18, 2010, 6:01PM

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)

The past day and a half have gone pretty well for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Yesterday saw a number of in-play Democrats come out in support the final health care reform package, and netted her her first commitment from a member--Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH)--who voted against the House health care bill in November. Today, the Congressional Budget Office gave the legislation a winning score, and she won more commitments, and her second and third converts from no-to-yes: Reps. Bart Gordon (D-TN) and Betsy Markey (D-CO).

But here's the rub: Pelosi still lacks the votes to pass it. Some former supporters of reform continue to say they'll vote against the current legislation. And though many members are coming around, very few of them are in the elusive pool from which Pelosi needs to draw: Members who voted against reform in round one.

And she's running out of easy pick-ups.

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IN-SEN

Bayh Pens Fundraising E-Mail For Ellsworth As New IN-SEN Democratic Candidate

Eric Kleefeld | March 11, 2010, 11:52AM

Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) and Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN)

Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), who is retiring this year, has sent out a fundraising letter to promote the new Democratic candidate to succeed him, Rep. Brad Ellsworth.

"Brad is an independent voice and a fiscal conservative who shares the fierce dedication to public service that you and I value. He has my complete confidence, and I hope you will support him as vigorously as you have supported me," Bayh writes in the e-mail. "But with only eight short months to go until Election Day, your immediate support is critical."

As we have reported, the state Democratic Party's central committee will formally select the new candidate -- who will in all likelihood be Ellsworth -- some time after the May 4 primary, and before a June 30 deadline. This is because Bayh announced his retirement the day before the signatures were due, and nobody filed the petitions necessary to appear on the Democratic primary ballot.

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IN-SEN

Memo To Progressives: If You Disliked Bayh Just Wait Til You See Ellsworth

Eric Kleefeld | March 2, 2010, 9:16AM

Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) and Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN)

The retirement of Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), who was often criticized by progressive Democrats, presents a certain ironic outcome -- that the likely new Democratic nominee to replace him, Rep. Brad Ellsworth, is actually somewhat to Bayh's right.

The various rating systems, and the two legislators' voting records, shows that Ellsworth is generally in the same territory as Bayh on most issues. The difference comes on three key social issues: Abortion, gay rights, and gun control.

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IN-SEN

Dem Rep. Baron Hill Not Running For Senate, Endorses Ellsworth

Eric Kleefeld | March 1, 2010, 2:54PM

Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) and Rep. Baron Hill (D-IN)

Rep. Baron Hill (D-IN) announced over the weekend that he will not run for the the Senate seat of retiring Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh, and that he has endorsed Rep. Brad Ellsworth to be the new Democratic nominee.

"I believe my friend and colleague, Congressman Brad Ellsworth, is the right man to fulfill the task of ensuring a Democrat is elected to succeed Senator Bayh," Hill said in a statement.

As we have reported, the fact that nobody filed the petitions necessary to appear on the Democratic primary ballot -- Bayh announced his retirement the day before the signatures were due -- means that the state Democratic Party's central committee has the authority to name a new candidate. That meeting of the committee will come some time after the May 4 primary, and before a June 30 deadline.

IN-SEN

Dem Baron Hill Still Mulling Senate Run In Indiana

Eric Kleefeld | February 23, 2010, 6:52PM

Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) and Rep. Baron Hill (D-IN)

Rep. Baron Hill (D-IN) is still keeping the door open to the possibility of seeking the Democratic nomination for the Senate seat of retiring Democrat Evan Bayh. However, it should be remembered that if he does seek the Dem nomination, for which Rep. Brad Ellsworth is already a candidate, it will be through a process without a conventional primary.

As we have reported, the fact that nobody filed the petitions necessary to appear on the Democratic primary ballot means that the state Democratic Party's central committee has the authority to name a new candidate. That meeting of the committee will come some time after the May 4 primary, and before June 30.

"A lot of people are undecided on the state committee. Some are favoring me. Some are favoring Brad," Hill told CNN. He also added: "I think I have to make it sooner rather than later. I think I need to make it this week."

Brad Ellsworth

Dem Brad Ellsworth To Run For Indiana Senate Seat

Eric Kleefeld | February 19, 2010, 12:06PM

Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN)

Indiana Democrats are on the verge of having a new candidate for the Senate seat of retiring Dem Evan Bayh, with Rep. Brad Ellsworth about to jump in -- though they won't be able to officially have a nominee in legal terms for a little while.

Chris Cillizza and Politico report that sources say Ellsworth is definitely in the race. A high-level Democratic source has also confirmed the news to TPMDC. (Late Update: Ellsworth himself has confirmed it to the local NBC station in Evansville.)

The Indianapolis Star also reports that Democratic state Rep. Trent Van Haaften has filed to run for Ellsworth's House seat. However the Star reports, it turns out that state law will prevent the Dems from being able to select the Senate candidate until after the May 4 primary.

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IN-SEN

Poll: Potential Dem Candidates Trail GOPers In Indiana Senate Race

Eric Kleefeld | February 18, 2010, 11:36AM

Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) and Rep. Baron Hill (D-IN)

The new Rasmussen poll of Indiana, the first survey of the Senate race here since Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh suddenly announced his retirement, finds the two most prominent potential Dem replacement candidates trailing the Republicans.

Democratic Rep. Brad Ellsowrth trails former GOP Sen. Dan Coats by 46%-32%, trails former Rep. John Hostettler by 46%-27%, and trails state Sen. Marlin Stutzman by 40%-30%. Democratic Rep. Baron Hill is behind Coats by 48%-32%, trails Hostettler by 49%-31%, and is behind Stutzman by 41%-33%.

Neither Ellsworth nor Hill are officially in the race at this time, and an actual campaign would likely boost the eventual candidate's name recognition and poll numbers somewhat. But for now, at least, the Democrats appear to start out this open-seat contest significantly behind.

IN-SEN

Indiana Senate Race Could Set Off Another Open-Seat Race -- For The House

Eric Kleefeld | February 16, 2010, 3:03PM

Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) and Rep. Baron Hill (D-IN)

The scramble for a new Democratic Senate candidate in Indiana, with the sudden retirement of Sen. Evan Bayh and his expected replacement by the state Democratic Party, has seen a lot of attention focused on some of the state's Democratic House members -- which could in turn set off an additional scramble to fill one of their seats, should they decide to run.

A Democratic source in Indiana filled us in on the possible candidates for the seats of three Dem House members who could conceivably become the new Senate nominee: Joe Donnelly, Brad Ellsworth and Baron Hill. (Most speculation has centered on Ellsworth and Hill, though Donnelly is not out of the question, either.) If any of these three were to accept the Democratic nomination for Senate and subsequently vacate their own nominations for the House, the party would go through an internal process to replace them as Congressional candidates.

The Democratic Party precinct chairs within the district, who are elected from each of the state's election precincts, would meet for a caucus at which they would vote for a new candidate. If more than two people were to run for a seat, and nobody were to win a majority at first, voting would continue until somebody reached 50-percent-plus-one. In this kind of process, different local allegiances and records in office can have a genuine role to play among the hundreds of people voting in the contest. "Needless to say, that is a more interesting process than the state mechanism," the source said.

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IN-SEN

Brad Ellsworth Considering Senate Bid

Christina Bellantoni | February 15, 2010, 2:33PM

Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN)

Rep. Brad Ellsworth is considering throwing his hat in the ring to run for Sen. Evan Bayh's Senate seat, saying today he wants feedback from his family and his constituents.

Ellsworth (D-IN), elected in 2006 when the Democrats took over Congress, lauded Bayh in a statement just released from his office and says the senator will be missed.

He adds that he's already been encouraged to seek the seat.

"I heard about the news during my annual Open Door Listening Tour this morning, and I appreciate the support of those Hoosiers who have already encouraged me to run for Senator Bayh's seat," Ellsworth said.

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