FL-GOV

PPP Poll: Dem Sink Leads GOPer Scott By 5 In FL-GOV Race

Marc Kilstein | October 13, 2010, 3:32PM

Florida gubernatorial candidates Alex Sink (D) and Rick Scott (R)

A new PPP (D) survey finds Democratic state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink leading Republican former hospital executive Rick Scott 46%-41% in Florida's gubernatorial race.

PPP hasn't polled the contest since late August, when a hypothetical matchup between Sink, Scott, and former independent candidate Bud Chiles yielded a 41%-34%-8% result favoring the Democrat. More recent polling, however, has seen Scott atop the polls more often than not. Just when it looked like the Republican was in control last week, an October 6 Mason-Dixon poll found Sink leading by four points. Then, an October 10 Quinnipiac poll showed Scott's lead at one, compared to the pollster's previous September 28 poll which had the Republican up six.

The TPM Poll Average still has Scott ahead 45.2%-43.3%, but this lead has narrowed. The margin of error for the latest survey is ±4.6 percentage points.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here

FL-GOV

Quinnipiac Poll: Rick Scott Leads Alex Sink By Six Points In FL-GOV

Eric Kleefeld | October 1, 2010, 10:37AM

Florida gubernatorial candidates Alex Sink (D) and Rick Scott (R)

The new Quinnipiac poll of the Florida gubernatorial race shows Republican nominee Rick Scott taking the lead over Democrat Alex Sink. This appears to be thanks to two main factors: Rick Scott's massive self-financed advertising -- and President Obama's unpopularity.

The numbers: Scott 49%, Sink 43%. The survey of likely voters has a ±2.9% margin of error. In the previous Quinnipiac poll from mid-August, shortly before the Republican primary, Sink had 33%, Scott 29%, plus 12% for independent Bud Chiles -- who later dropped out and endorsed Sink.

The TPM Poll Average gives Scott a lead of 46.8%-44.3%.

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FL-GOV

Mason-Dixon Poll: Dem Sink Up 7 In FL-GOV Race

Marc Kilstein | September 23, 2010, 2:10PM

Florida gubernatorial candidates Alex Sink (D) and Rick Scott (R)

A newly released Mason-Dixon poll of the Florida gubernatorial race finds state Chief Financial Officer and Democratic nominee Alex Sink on top of Republican former hospital executive Rick Scott 47%-40%.

Mason-Dixon last took a look at this race on August 11 (before the Florida primaries) and saw Sink leading Scott 40%-24%, with Independent Bud Chiles, who has since dropped out of the race, pulling in 17%. Last week, a Reuters/Ipsos poll saw Scott up two points on Sink, 47%-45%, while a Fox News poll had Sink ahead by eight, 49%-41%.

The margin of error for the latest survey is ±4.0 percentage points.

The TPM Poll Average for the contest has Sink leading Scott, 46.6%-40.3%. For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

FL-GOV

Poll: Rick Scott Leads By Two In FL-GOV Race

Marc Kilstein | September 15, 2010, 4:13PM

Florida gubernatorial candidates Alex Sink (D) and Rick Scott (R)

For the first time since Democratic-leaning independent candidate Bud Chiles dropped out of Florida's gubernatorial race, Republican and former hospital executive Rick Scott finds himself atop a general election poll. A Reuters/Ipsos poll out today finds Scott leading state Chief Financial Officer and Democratic nominee Alex Sink, 47%-45%.

There is no previous Reuters/Ipsos poll of the two-way race for direct comparison.

While the results fall within the poll's ±4.6% margin of error, the findings nonetheless mark a shift in polling results. Last week, Republican-leaning polling firm Susquehanna released a poll that suggested Scott was gaining ground on the Democratic nominee. That poll had Scott behind 44%-42%. A CNN/Time poll released earlier in the week had produced a more comfortable seven-point lead for Sink. Polling conducted prior to Chiles' dropout showed the Democratic nominee maintaining a healthy lead in the gubernatorial fight.

The TPM Poll Average for the contest still has Sink on top of Scott, 46.5%-43.0%. For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

FL-GOV

Poll: Sink And Scott Locked In Close FL-GOV Race

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 10, 2010, 10:58AM

Rick Scott

What a difference a poll makes. A new survey of likely voters in Florida shows wealthy former hospital executive Rick Scott, the state's Republican gubernatorial nominee, running very close to Democratic nominee and state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink. The poll, conducted by Republican-leaning firm Susquehanna for the news site Sunshine State News, shows Sink ahead 44-42. There is no past poll for direct comparison.

A CNN/Time poll of registered voters in Florida released Tuesday showed Sink with a comfortable seven-point lead. The new Susquehanna numbers suggest that despite the state and national GOP's trepidations when it comes to Scott, the self-funding tea party-backed millionaire has what it takes to beat Sink.

Past polls of the race -- most of which included independent-but-Democratic-leaning candidate Bud Chiles, who dropped out of the race recently and endorsed Sink -- showed the Democratic nominee with a healthy lead over Scott in the general election fight. If the new Susquehanna numbers are to be believed, that narrative may be changing.

FL-GOV

Rasmussen Poll: Sink Leads 48-47 In Florida Gov Race

Eric Kleefeld | September 2, 2010, 10:08AM

Florida gubernatorial candidates Alex Sink (D) and Rick Scott (R)

The new Rasmussen poll of the Florida gubernatorial race -- a snap poll taken right after independent candidate Bud Chiles dropped out and endorsed Democratic nominee Alex Sink yesterday -- shows that the two-way race is as tight as can be.

The initial numbers give Republican nominee Rick Scott a lead of 45%-44%. After leaners were pushed, it's Sink who has a one-point edge of 48%-47%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. This is the first poll of a two-way general election race since June.

The survey would seem to suggest that Chiles's withdrawal has provided a small boost to Sink. In the previous survey from last week, Scott led Sink and Chiles by 41%-36%-8% on initial preferences. After undecided voters were pushed, as well as Chiles voters -- on the rationale that supporters of minor candidates often break away to a major candidate on election day -- Scott led by 45%-42%-4%. So for now at least, Sink has either narrowed the gap or perhaps even taken a small lead thanks to Chiles quitting the race.

FL-GOV

Will Indy Chiles Dropping Out Help Dem In FL-GOV Race?

Eric Kleefeld | September 2, 2010, 9:08AM

Alex Sink and Bud Chiles (inset).

So what should we make of the withdrawal of independent candidate Bud Chiles from the Florida gubernatorial race, and his endorsement of Democratic nominee Alex Sink? At first glance, it would seem that this is a pure plus for Dems -- but a closer look shows that it's not so totally cut and dry.

Chiles, a son of the late Dem Gov. Lawton Chiles, had been promoting children's issues and clean energy in his bid -- the sort of stuff that would make you think he would draw Dem voters. And he was having at least some success there. An August 19 Quinnipiac poll of a three-way race between Sink, Republican Rick Scott and Chiles showed the independent taking 13% of the Dem vote -- compared to 7% of the Republican vote.

Chiles said last week that he thought the upset win in the Republican primary by right-wing former health care executive Rick Scott would help his own campaign. But he also made it clear which candidate he would prefer if he couldn't get traction himself: "I'll say this till the end: I'm not in this race to create a situation where Rick Scott becomes governor."

The TPM Poll Average of the three-way race gives Sink the lead with 40.9%, followed by Scott at 36.7%, and Chiles with only 7.7%.

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FL-GOV

Indy Candidate Chiles Drops Out Of FL-GOV Race -- And Endorses Dem

Eric Kleefeld | September 1, 2010, 4:40PM

Lawton "Bud" Chiles

Bud Chiles, the independent candidate for governor of Florida and a son of the late Democratic Gov. Lawton Chiles, has officially announced that he is dropping out of the race -- and endorsing the Democratic nominee, state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink.

"I need to be able to look people in the face and really believe in my heart that this was a campaign I could win and really be viable," Chiles told the St. Petersburg Times. "I just got to the point where it was difficult for me to do that." Chiles also said that he met with Sink, and came away "feeling a whole lot better" about her stances on topics such as children's issues and small businesses. "It seemed to me like that there was a lot more agreement than I might have thought."

Chiles said last week that he thought the upset win in the Republican primary by right-wing former health care executive Rick Scott would help his own campaign. However, he also said at the same time that he did not want to be a spoiler who would help elect Scott, already making it clear which candidate he would prefer.

The TPM Poll Average of the (now outdated) three-way race gives Sink the lead with 40.9%, followed by Scott at 36.7%, and Chiles with only 7.7%.

FL-GOV

Report: Indy Candidate Bud Chiles To Drop Out Of FL-GOV Race

Eric Kleefeld | August 31, 2010, 5:38PM

Lawton "Bud" Chiles

The Florida gubernatorial race could be getting yet another curveball thrown into it, the St. Petersburg Times reports, with independent candidate Bud Chiles expected to drop out soon. And at first glance, it looks like this could ultimately benefit the Democrats.

Chiles, a businessman and activist for health care for children in poor areas, is a son of the late Democratic Gov. Lawton Chiles, and had acknowledged that his views are closer to the Democratic side than the GOP. Interestingly, Chiles said last week that he thought the upset win in the Republican primary by right-wing former health care executive Rick Scott would help his own campaign -- but that he would not want to be a spoiler.

"I'll say this till the end: I'm not in this race to create a situation where Rick Scott becomes governor," Chiles told reporters last Thursday. "I believe every day, and I think what happened in the (Republican) primary is a very strong indication that I have a very viable candidacy. As long as my candidacy is viable, then, if I'm sending the message that Floridians want to hear, I'm going to keep doing that. And if, at some point, I feel that it's not viable then we can have another discussion about it."

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FL-GOV

Florida GOP In Disarray After Nasty, Divisive Gov Primary

Eric Kleefeld | August 26, 2010, 8:52AM

Rick Scott

The Florida GOP is facing some serious problems in the wake of former health care executive Rick Scott's upset victory in Tuesday night's gubernatorial primary. As it stands now, the party and its voters face division, bad poll numbers, financial troubles and scandal -- and Scott starts the general election cycle trailing Democratic nominee Alex Sink.

Scott spent $50 million on the race to take down the party establishment's choice, state Attorney General Bill McCollum -- much of it on attack ads against McCollum. And so far, McCollum is not endorsing Scott. His campaign said that McCollum's endorsing Senate nominee Marco Rubio and other GOP candidates, but isn't mentioning Scott.

In fact, McCollum's written concession statement didn't even name Scott -- McCollum only acknowledged his own defeat, and thanked everyone who supported his campaign. "This race was one for the ages. No one could have anticipated the entrance of a multi-millionaire with a questionable past who shattered campaign spending records and spent more in four months than has ever been spent in a primary race here in Florida," McCollum wrote. "While I was disappointed with the negative tone of the race, I couldn't be more proud of our campaign and our supporters for fighting back against false and misleading advertising when we were down by double-digits."

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FL-GOV

Quinnipiac Poll: Dem Sink Takes Narrow Lead For FL-GOV

Eric Kleefeld | August 19, 2010, 10:13AM

Florida Gov. candidates Bill McCollum (R), Alex Sink (D) and Rick Scott (R).

The new Quinnipiac poll of the Florida gubernatorial race shows presumptive Democratic nominee Alex Sink taking a narrow lead for now, as Republican contenders Bill McCollum and Rick Scott keep tearing each other apart in their primary.

With McCollum as the GOP nominee, Sink has an edge of 31%-29%, with 12% for independent Bud Chiles. With Scott as the Republican candidate, Sink leads by 33%-29%, with 12% for Chiles. The survey of registered voters has a ±3% margin of error. In the previous Quinnipiac poll from three weeks ago, McCollum edged Sink by 27%-26%, and Scott edged Sink by 29%-27%, with 14% for Chiles in both cases.

The TPM Poll Average has Sink leading McCollum and Chiles by 33.1%-30.7%-12.4%, and Sink leading Scott and Chiles by 34.7%-27.8%-14.3%.

FL-GOV

Rasmussen Poll: Dem Sink Trails Rick Scott In FL-GOV Race, But Leads McCollum

Thomas Rhiel | August 4, 2010, 10:55AM

Florida Gov. candidates Bill McCollum (R), Alex Sink (D) and Rick Scott (R).

A new Rasmussen poll of the Florida governor's race shows Democrat Alex Sink trailing GOP frontrunner Rick Scott, but leading Republican state Attorney General Bill McCollum -- a first in Rasmussen's polling. The new survey puts Scott ahead of Sink 35%-31%, with Independent Bud Chiles in third with 16%. Against McCollum, Sink is out in front 31%-27%, while Chiles takes 20%.

All signs point to Scott becoming the Republican nominee in the August 24 primary. He's well ahead in the polls, and has a huge financial advantage over McCollum.

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FL-GOV

Quinnipiac Poll: GOPers Just Barely Ahead Of Dem In Florida Gov Race

Thomas Rhiel | July 30, 2010, 9:57AM

Florida Gov. candidates Bill McCollum (R), Alex Sink (D) and Rick Scott (R).

Today's Quinnipiac poll of the Florida governor's race shows both potential Republican nominees edging out Democrat Alex Sink. Republican businessman Rick Scott, the frontrunner in the GOP primary, leads Sink 29%-27%, with Independent Bud Chiles grabbing 14%. In a separate matchup, Republican state Attorney General Bill McCollum narrowly leads Sink 27%-26%, while Chiles takes third, again with 14%.

Quinnipiac's new numbers show a big improvement for Sink since its last survey, on June 7, which showed Sink down nine against Scott and down eight against McCollum.

A July 18 PPP poll showed Sink ahead of Scott and McCollum by six and 14 points respectively, and a July 11 Reuters/Ipsos survey showed Scott leading Sink 34%-31% but Sink edging McCollum 31%-30%.

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FL-GOV

Independent FL GOV Candidate Has A Name...And He's Not Afraid To Use It

Evan McMorris-Santoro | June 10, 2010, 12:18PM

Lawton "Bud" Chiles

Lawton "Bud" Chiles -- son of the legendary Florida Democratic politician with whom he shares a name -- is planning to shake up the Florida governors race by leveraging his family connections and appealing to voters he says are frustrated with partisan politics. But Democrats say that Chiles, who admitted to me that he leans more toward the Democratic side of things, could end up doing little more than clearing the path for a Republican to win in November.

Chiles says that the Democratic nominee, state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, is not cutting it when it comes to inspiring an electorate hungry for change. And he says that the wacky primary on the Republican side shows -- not to mention the state GOP's many scandals -- show that there's room for an independent to make a run.

It's not yet clear how serious a bid Chiles will be able to mount -- it will take a lot of money to play in the general election and Chiles didn't really say how much he planned to spend. But Chiles has one natural advantage that he told me he's not afraid to leverage, one that could potentially make him a serious contender.

"A lot of people give me the benefit of the doubt," Chiles told me Tuesday when I asked about his famous name. "It certainly helps me...[But] what I'm banking on more than my last name is the energy out there."

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