CA-SEN

Poll: Feinstein Crushes GOPers In 2012 CA Senate Race

Jon Terbush | February 3, 2011, 8:39AM

Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA)

Last year, Republican Carly Fiorina put a scare into the Democratic Party by making her race against incumbent Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) seem close, if only for a few months. Yet Republicans may have less cause for excitement when they challenge Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) in 2012, as a new PPP poll shows Feinstein dominating a slate of prominent GOP challengers by anywhere from 14 to 34 points.

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CA-SEN

Call Her 'Senator' -- Boxer Turns Back Fiorina's Challenge

Eric Kleefeld | November 2, 2010, 11:51PM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Republican candidate Carly Fiorina

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) has dodged the Republican tide, defeating former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina.

With 13% of precincts reporting, Boxer leads by 49%-45%, and has been projected as the winner by NBC News and the Los Angeles Times.

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2010 elections

Senate In The Balance: TPM's Look At The 9 Key Races Still Up For Grabs

Eric Kleefeld | November 1, 2010, 5:06PM

Clockwise from top left: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO), Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI), Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA)

As we head into Election Day, one thing is clear for Senate Democrats: It's going to be bad. Seriously. There's no going anywhere but down. But how far down?

It's unlikely that Democrats will manage to lose their majority outright, since they're starting at the high mark of 59 seats. But things sure look rough. Open seats in Indiana and North Dakota seem to be gone already, along with incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas. Republican seats that seemed like potential Dem pickups much earlier in the cycle -- North Carolina and open seats in Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Ohio -- are clearly out of reach.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Stranger Than Fiction? TPM Casts The 2010 Midterms Movie]

The few bright spots for Democrats are open seats in Connecticut and Delaware, where very weak Republican candidates Linda McMahon and Christine O'Donnell have spared the Dems from total humiliation. So with that in mind, let's take a look at some other key races to watch tomorrow.

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CA-SEN

SurveyUSA Poll: Brown Up 11, Boxer Up 8 In CA Races

Marc Kilstein | November 1, 2010, 3:59PM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and California Attorney General Jerry Brown

On the heels of a more-narrow PPP survey released this morning, SurveyUSA is out with new numbers on the California Senate and gubernatorial contests that suggest Democrats are well-positioned to take both races.

In the Senate race, Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer is found ahead of Republican former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina 46%-38%. When SurveyUSA looked at this race last week, Boxer led by five points, 45%-40%.

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CA-GOV

PPP Poll: Brown And Boxer Stay Narrowly Ahead In California

Eric Kleefeld | November 1, 2010, 11:07AM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and California Attorney General Jerry Brown

The new survey of California from Public Policy Polling (D) shows Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jerry Brown and Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer holding on to narrow leads in their respective races against Republican businesswomen Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina.

In the gubernatorial race: Brown 51%, Whitman 46%. In the previous PPP poll from a week ago, Brown had a wider lead of 53%-42%. The TPM Poll Average of the gubernatorial race gives Brown a lead of 49.6%-42.0%.

In the Senate race: Boxer 50%, Fiorina 46%. The previous PPP numbers from a week ago gave Boxer a lead of 52%-43%. The TPM Poll Average of the Senate race gives Boxer a lead of 48.1%-44.1%.

The survey of likely voters has a ±3.3% margin of error.

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2010 elections

CNN Poll: Brown And Boxer Ahead In California

Eric Kleefeld | October 27, 2010, 6:02PM

California Attorney General and gubernatorial candidate Jerry Brown

The new CNN poll of California provides further corroboration that Democrats Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer are on track in their respective gubernatorial and Senate races.

The gubernatorial numbers: Brown 51%, Republican Meg Whitman 44%. In the previous poll from a month ago, Brown led by 52%-43%. The TPM Poll Average has Brown ahead by 49.0%-41.3%.

The Senate numbers: Boxer 50%, Republican Carly Fiorina 45%. In the previous poll from a month ago, Boxer led by 52%-43%. The TPM Poll Average has Boxer ahead by 47.4%-43.4%.

The survey of likely voters has a ±3.5% margin of error.

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CA-SEN

Carly Fiorina Leaving Hospital, Set To Return To Campaign Trail Tomorrow

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 27, 2010, 1:46PM

US Senate candidate Carly Fiorina (R-CA)

Republican Carly Fiorina will return to the Senate campaign trail in California tomorrow after spending a day in the hospital being treated for an infection.

"Carly has been successfully treated for the infection she had as a result of reconstructive surgery following her victory over breast cancer," Fiorina chief of staff Deborah Bowker said in a statement. "This morning, her doctors gave her the good news that she will be released from the hospital today and can resume her busy campaign schedule tomorrow."

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2010 elections

SurveyUSA: Brown And Boxer Ahead In California

Eric Kleefeld | October 27, 2010, 11:40AM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and California Attorney General Jerry Brown

Yet another poll of California, this one from SurveyUSA, has Democrats Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer continuing to lead in their respective gubernatorial and Senate races.

In the gubernatorial race, Brown leads Republican Meg Whitman by 46%-38%. In the previous poll from last week, Brown led by 47%-40%. The TPM Poll Average gives Brown a lead of 48.7%-40.8%.

In the Senate race, the incumbent Senator Boxer leads Republican Carly Fiorina by 45%-40%. In the previous poll from last week, Boxer had a narrower lead of 46%-44%. The TPM Poll Average has Boxer ahead by 47.2%-43.1%.

The survey of likely voters has a ±4.1% margin of error.

CA-SEN

Fiorina Remains In Hospital Overnight, Future Campaign Schedule Unclear

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 26, 2010, 9:26PM

US Senate candidate Carly Fiorina (R-CA)

Republican Carly Fiorina will remain overnight in the California hospital she entered this morning to treat an infection, her Senate campaign reported. The campaign did not offer a prediction of when (or if) Fiorina will rejoin the campaign trail in advance of Election Day, but it reported that her doctors are "taking every precaution to ensure she can return to her busy campaign schedule."

The statement goes on to say that Fiorina could be back on the trail "later this week."

Fiorina was admitted to an unnamed hospital this morning to treat an infection related to breast reconstruction surgery.

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CA-SEN

PPP Poll: Dems Increasing Leads In CA-SEN And CA-GOV Races

Marc Kilstein | October 26, 2010, 4:43PM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and California Attorney General Jerry Brown

On the heels of two newly released surveys of the California Senate and gubernatorial races, another set of numbers has come out, extending the narrative that Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer and state Attorney General Jerry Brown are pulling away in their respective races.

The poll, conducted by PPP, finds Boxer leading Republican former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina in the state's Senate race 52%-43%, while Brown is found up on Republican former eBay CEO Meg Whitman 53%-42% in the state's gubernatorial race. When PPP last looked at these races on September 16, Boxer led 50%-42%, while Brown was up by a narrower 47%-42% advantage.

The TPM Poll Average finds Boxer on top of the Senate race 47.5%-43.4%. In the gubernatorial contest, the TPM Poll Average shows Brown leading Whitman 48.8%-41.2%.

The margin of error of the newest statewide survey is ±3.9 percentage points.

For more on the Senate race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here. For more on the gubernatorial race, click here.

CA-SEN

Suffolk Poll: Boxer Up 9, Brown Up 8 In CA Races

Marc Kilstein | October 26, 2010, 4:29PM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and California Attorney General Jerry Brown

Suffolk University has released a new California statewide poll and the Democrats appear to be in control of both the Senate and gubernatorial races.

In the Senate contest, Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer is leading Republican former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina 52%-43%, with Libertarian Gail Lightfoot earning 2%, American Independent candidate Edward Noonan polling at 1%, and Green Party candidate Duane Roberts pulling in 1% as well.

In the gubernatorial race, Democratic state Attorney General Jerry Brown is up on Republican former eBay CEO Meg Whitman 50%-42%, with a slew of third party candidates polling in the single digits (American Independent candidate Chelene Nightingale at 2%, while Green Party candidate Laura Wells, Libertarian Dale Ogden, and Peace and Freedom candidate Carlos Alvarez are all at 1%).

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CA-SEN

Carly Fiorina Hospitalized, CA-SEN Campaigning Curtailed

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 26, 2010, 1:42PM

CA Senate candidate Carly Fiorina

Carly Fiorina, the Republican nominee for Senate in California and a well-known breast cancer survivor, was admitted to the hospital this morning to treat complications related to breast reconstruction surgery.

According to a statement released by her campaign, Fiorina "came down with an infection," and "as a result, she was admitted to the hospital to receive antibiotics."

The full extent of the hospitalization's effect on the closely-watched Senate race is unknown. "This will impact her campaign schedule today," the campaign said in a statement, adding that Fiorina "is upbeat and her doctors expect her to make a quick and full recovery and be back out on the campaign trail soon."

Fiorina's opponent, Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) did not offer any immediate comment on Fiorina's announcement.

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2010 elections

Fox News Poll: Brown Extends Lead In CA-GOV, Boxer Holds Steady In Senate Race

Eric Kleefeld | October 26, 2010, 10:31AM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and California Attorney General Jerry Brown

The new Fox News poll of California shows Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jerry Brown and incumbent Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer staying ahead in their races.

In the gubernatorial race: Brown 50%, Republican Meg Whitman 41%. In the previous poll from last week, Brown led by a slightly narrower 48%-43% -- in line with a recent trend of Brown expanding his lead in all the polls. The TPM Poll Average for the gubernatorial race gives Brown a lead of 48.4%-41.1%.

In the Senate race: Boxer 48%, Republican Carly Fiorina 44%. In the previous poll from last week, Boxer led by an identical 48%-44%, in line with other pollsters that have shown Boxer with a narrow but steady lead. The TPM Poll Average for the Senate race gives Boxer a lead of 47.1%-43.4%.

The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error.

ed. note: This post has been edited from the original, correcting a typo in the numbers.

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CA-SEN

Fiorina Ad: California's Hopes Are 'Crushed' By Boxer (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 25, 2010, 4:33PM

Ad from candidate for U.S. Senate Carly Fiorina (R-CA), "Crushed"

Republican candidate Carly Fiorina has a new ad in the California Senate race, with an especially bleak attack against incumbent Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer: California is a hopeless wasteland, populated by indigent people trudging through a Steinbeckian dust bowl with no jobs in sight -- and it's all Boxer's fault.

"Barbara Boxer failed to protect California jobs," the announcer says. "Praises the stimulus plan, while two-and-a-quarter million Californians are unemployed. Trillions in deficits, billions in taxes. Our hopes crushed by Washington. The legacy of Barbara Boxer.

"We can change Washington. But not unless we change the people we send there."

The TPM Poll Average gives Boxer a lead of 47.0%-43.3%.

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CA-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Dem Boxer Leads By 2 In CA-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | October 22, 2010, 2:40PM

Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Senate candidate Carly Fiorina (R-CA)

A new Rasmussen survey of the California Senate race finds Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer leading Republican former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina 48%-46%.

When Rasmussen took a look at this race last week, Boxer was up three points, 49%-46%. An October 18 SurveyUSA poll had the Democrat up two points as well, 46%-44%, while an October 17 Public Policy Institute of California poll found her five points ahead of the Republican nominee.

The TPM Poll Average shows Boxer leading the contest 46.7%-43.5%. The margin of error for the newest survey is ±4.0 percentage points.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

2010 elections

PPIC Poll: Brown And Boxer Ahead In California

Eric Kleefeld | October 21, 2010, 10:29AM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and California Attorney General Jerry Brown

The new statewide survey from the Public Policy Institute of California shows both Democratic candidates, gubernatorial nominee Jerry Brown and incumbent Sen. Barbara Boxer, leading in their races.

In the gubernatorial race: Brown 44%, Republican Meg Whitman 36%. In the previous poll from late September, Whitman had an edge of 38%-37%. The TPM Poll Average for the gubernatorial race gives Brown a lead of 47.3%-42.3%.

In the Senate race: Boxer 43%, Republican Carly Fiorina 38%. In the previous poll from late September, Boxer led by 42%-35%. The TPM Poll Average for the Senate race gives Boxer a lead of 47.0%-43.3%.

The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error.

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2010 elections

Fox Poll: Dems Lead In California

Eric Kleefeld | October 19, 2010, 12:40PM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and California Attorney General Jerry Brown

The new Fox News poll of California shows the Democrats extending their narrow leads in the state's top races for governor and Senate. Or perhaps more accurately, the Republicans are falling further behind -- the voters don't actually like any of the candidates.

In the gubernatorial race, to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger: Democrat Jerry Brown 48%, Republican Meg Whitman 43%. In the previous Fox poll from a month ago, Brown and Whitman were tied at 45%-45%. The TPM Poll Average for the gubernatorial race gives Brown a lead of 47.6%-43.7%

In the Senate race: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer 48%, Republican Carly Fiorina 44%. In the previous poll, Boxer led by just 47%-46%. The TPM Poll Average for the Senate race gives Boxer a lead of 48.0%-43.7%.

As Fox's analysis points out: "California voters don't seem too happy with any of their candidate choices this year. Boxer, Fiorina, Brown and Whitman all scored above 50 percent on being viewed unfavorably by voters."

The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error.

2010 elections

Reuters/Ipsos Poll: Brown And Boxer Narrowly Lead In California

Eric Kleefeld | October 15, 2010, 6:25PM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and California Attorney General Jerry Brown

The new Reuters/Ipsos poll of California gives the Democratic candidates narrow leads in the state's top two races.

In the gubernatorial race, to succeed term-limited Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Democrat Jerry Brown leads Republican Meg Whitman by 48%-44%. In the previous Ipsos poll from just under two weeks ago, Brown led by 50%-43%. The TPM Poll Average for the gubernatorial race gives Brown a lead of 47.4%-43.8%

In the Senate race, incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer has an edge of just 46%-45% over Republican Carly Fiorina. In the previous poll, Boxer led by 49%-45%. The TPM Poll Average for the Senate race gives Boxer a lead of 47.9%-43.7%.

The survey of likely voters has a ±4.6% margin of error.

2010 elections

Do GOPers Think Palin Is Qualified To Be President? Maybe.

Eric Kleefeld | October 13, 2010, 8:34AM

Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin (R)

Sarah Palin has certainly had a big influence in this year's Republican primaries, and she could very well leverage this into a top-tier position in the 2012 Republican presidential primaries. But for some reason, a bunch of Republicans have had a hard time saying she actually is qualified to be President. It's almost become a litmus test of sorts for Republican candidates this cycle -- after Palin backed them, will they really go so far as to say Palin could be president?

[TPM SLIDESHOW - Governor Sarah Palin: A Long Goodbye]

Some of these candidates have displayed a learning curve of sorts -- fumbling on the question at first, then sort of straightening up later. Let's take a quick look at a few recent examples.

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CA-SEN

Carly Fiorina: 'Every Speech Should Begin With A Shot Of Tequila' (VIDEO)

Christina Bellantoni | October 11, 2010, 12:02PM

Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina

Viva California!

Republican Senate nominee Carly Fiorina sure can trill, and both she and gubernatorial nominee Meg Whitman seem to be able to hold their liquor.

Friday night at the Hispanic 100 Lifetime Achievement award dinner, the women -- both former CEOs of Silicon Valley businesses -- were captured on video doing tequila shots and getting into the spirit as a mariachi band played.

The video, shot and edited by NBC's John Boxley and NBC's Domenico Montanaro, also portrays Fiorina saying the night had "spoiled" her forever.

"I think every speech should begin with a shot of tequila," Fiorina said, letting out a loud trill.

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CA-SEN

SurveyUSA Polls: Dems Ahead In CA-SEN and CA-GOV Races

Marc Kilstein | October 5, 2010, 9:42AM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and California Attorney General Jerry Brown

SurveyUSA is out with new numbers on the California Senate and gubernatorial races and both Democratic nominees are maintaining their recent polling leads. In the Senate race, Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer is leading Republican former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina 46%-43%, while Democratic state Attorney General Jerry Brown is up on Republican former eBay CEO Meg Whitman in the state's gubernatorial race, 47%-43%.

When SurveyUSA last looked at these contests on September 21, both Democrats were up in their respective contests: Boxer led by six points, 49%-43%, and Brown had a three-point advantage, 46%-43%. These two closely-watched races have been heavily polled over the last few weeks. Most recently in the Senate race, a CNN/Time poll gave Boxer a 52%-43% lead over Fiorina. The Democrat hasn't been found trailing in a poll in nearly a month. In the gubernatorial fight, an October 3 Rasmussen poll had Brown up five points, 49%-44%. He has led in five of the last six poll conducted on the race.

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2010 elections

The Quiet Surge: Boxer Staying One Step Ahead In California

Eric Kleefeld | October 4, 2010, 8:34AM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA)

Although Senate Republicans are expected to pick up a lot of seats, one race that they had high hopes for currently seems to be slipping away, based on the latest polls: California, where Sen. Barbara Boxer is running for her fourth term.

On paper, Boxer suffers from the same lackluster popularity that has plagued many other Senators in the tough economic environment -- as the TPM Poll Average of her approval rating shows, she is at only 42.6% approval, to 47.4% disapproval. Furthermore, Boxer's Republican opponent is Carly Fiorina, the former CEO of Hewlett Packard, who has put several million dollars of her own money into the race (though nowhere near the more than $100 million put in by Republican gubernatorial nominee Meg Whitman).

However, the latest TPM Poll Average for the horse race gives Boxer a steady lead of 47.4%-43.4%, and Fiorina has been unable to catch Boxer for some time.

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CA-SEN

PPIC Poll: Boxer Ahead Seven Points In CA-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 30, 2010, 3:54PM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA)

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) is in the driver's seat in her bid for reelection this year, a new poll from the Public Policy Institute of California shows. The PPIC survey of 1,104 likely voters is one of the state's most respected polls and it shows Boxer leading Republican nominee Carly Fiorina 42-35.

In PPIC's last survey of the race, taken in July, Boxer led 39-34. The new result matches other recent polls showing Boxer ahead. The TPM Poll Average shows the Democrat leading 47.4-43.4.

PPIC reports that Boxer appears to be gaining voters even as she loses some public confidence. "Across parties, her approval rating has dropped since May among Democrats (67% today, down 10 points), independents (41%, down 12 points), and Republicans (7%, down 6 points)," the pollster reports. "Disapproval of her job performance is at a new high of 45 percent."

That dip could give Fiorina some hope that she can reclaim the lead in the race between now and November 2.

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CA-SEN

Boxer And Fiorina Slug It Out In Debate

Eric Kleefeld | September 29, 2010, 6:51PM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Republican Senate nominee Carly Fiorina

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and her Republican opponent, former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, met today for a heated debate (though Boxer phoned it in from DC), hosted by the radio station KPCC in Pasadena and the Spanish-language newspaper La Opinion. A major theme emerged from the discussion -- that each one would often answer a question about their own position by attacking their opponent.

For example, when Fiorina was asked for comment about what federal regulations she would roll back, she referenced Endangered Species Act rules that cut off access to water resources in California's rural areas -- and how Barbara Boxer's links to "extreme" environmental groups keep her from doing anything about it.

On job creation, Boxer said, "The fact is our nation needs to incentivize companies like yours to hire American workers. We need to see the words 'made in America' again." And then she turned it right at Fiorina's business record: "She laid off 30,000 workers, shipped their jobs to China, to India, to Malaysia. She's said she's proud of what she did. The fact is I've met some of these people who she's laid off, I've heard some of their stories."

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CA-SEN

CNN/Time Polls: California Love For Boxer, Brown

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 29, 2010, 6:17PM

California Attorney General and gubernatorial candidate Jerry Brown

Two new polls from CNN/Time are giving Democrats in California reason to celebrate. The party's nominees for governor and Senate -- both facing wealthy self-funders -- are ahead by nine points, the polls find.

Incumbent Sen. Barbara Boxer leads Republican nominee Carly Fiorina by margin of 52-43, the poll finds. That's the same margin that CNN/Time reports Jerry Brown (D) is ahead of Meg Whitman (R) in the gubernatorial race.

Compared with CNN/Time's last poll of the races, both sets of numbers show the Democrats gaining momentum. Boxer led by four in the last poll, and Brown trailed by two.

The TPM Poll Average for the Senate campaign shows Boxer ahead 48.0-44.3. The TPM Poll Average for the gubernatorial fight shows a much closer contest, with Whitman ahead 45.8-45.5.

Both CNN/Time polls were conducted among likely voters early this week. The margin of error for each is 3.5%.

CA-SEN

Chamber Slams Boxer As Anti-Business In New California Ad Blitz (VIDEO)

Christina Bellantoni | September 28, 2010, 11:49AM

Anti-Barbara Boxer ad from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, "28 Years"

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is running a new television ad in California targeting Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) as doing little in her nearly three decades of service. Boxer faces a competitive race against former HP CEO Carly Fiorina, one of several Republican candidates the chamber is spending big bucks to boost this fall.

The ad focuses on a theme Fiorina hit in her first television ad and during their first debate, that Boxer has few accomplishments to show for her 28 years in Washington.

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CA-SEN

Los Angeles Times Poll: Boxer Leads Fiorina By 8 Points

Eric Kleefeld | September 27, 2010, 9:55AM

Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA)

The new Los Angeles Times/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) poll of the California Senate race shows Dem Sen. Barbara Boxer with a strong lead over Republican nominee Carly Fiorina.

The numbers: Boxer 51%, Fiorina 43%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3.3% margin of error. In the previous LAT/GQR poll from back in late May, Boxer led Fiorina by 44%-38%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Boxer a lead of 47.5%-44.3%.

CA-SEN

Field Poll: Boxer Leads Fiorina By 6 In CA-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | September 24, 2010, 10:17AM

Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Senate candidate Carly Fiorina (R-CA)

A Field Poll released this morning finds Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer leading Republican former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina 47%-41% in the California Senate race.

In the last Field Poll, from early July, Boxer led Fiorina by three points, 47%-44%. The latest survey is one of a number of polls released this week that have the Democratic nominee out in front-- among them are a SurveyUSA poll out yesterday that produced a six-point lead for Boxer, 49-43%, and a September 20 Rasmussen poll that showed a four-point advantage for the Democrat.

While polls have treated Boxer well over recent weeks, it is worth noting that the new Field Poll saw the incumbent Democratic Senator's job disapproval rating at a historical high-- 47% of California likely voters suggested that they do not approve of her job performance as a US Senator, the highest mark Field has registered through nearly two decades of polling on the Democrat.

The TPM Poll Average shows Boxer leading the contest 47.1%-44.4%. The margin of error of the newest survey is ±4.1 percentage points.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

Bush Tax Cuts

Some Think Reid Bowing To Pressure From Dem Candidates

Christina Bellantoni | September 23, 2010, 1:34PM

Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI), Vice President Joe Biden, and Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA)

How did Senate leadership go from all-systems-go on extending tax cuts for the middle class to let's wait for the lame duck? Some aides think it has everything to do with the elections.

A Senate Democratic aide told TPM that while leadership has opted to scrap plans for a tax cuts vote before the election, the caucus isn't so clearly against holding a vote now.

The aide said it's closely divided among the Democrats who want to punt until November and those who want to take a vote now to draw a distinction between their party and the Republicans in clear terms.

Read more »

CA-SEN

SurveyUSA Poll: Boxer Up 6 In CA-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | September 23, 2010, 11:34AM

Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Senate candidate Carly Fiorina (R-CA)

A new SurveyUSA poll of the California Senate race shows Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer ahead of Republican former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina 49%-43%.

The latest survey's numbers are very different than the firm's findings in its September 1 poll -- Fiorina was up 48%-46%. The Democratic nominee has come out on top of all six polls conducted for the contest since September 6 -- the latest, prior to today's, was a September 20 Rasmussen poll that gave Boxer a 47%-43% advantage.

The TPM Poll Average shows Boxer leading the contest 47.1%-44.8%. The margin of error of the newest survey is ±4.0 percentage points.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

CA-SEN

Fiorina's First TV Ad Goes Negative: Boxer Is Arrogant (VIDEO)

Christina Bellantoni | September 23, 2010, 8:20AM

CA Sen candidate Carly Fiorina (R)

Republican Senate candidate Carly Fiorina went straight for the jugular today with her first television ad slamming rival Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) as arrogant. Fiorina's camp uses footage from Boxer's famed exchange with Brigadier Gen. Michael Walsh of the Army Corps of Engineers.

During a June 2009 hearing, Boxer asked Gen. Walsh to call her "senator," not "ma'am." The moment has been conservative catnip for more than a year, and Fiorina mentioned it in her first debate with Boxer last month.

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CA-SEN

Koch Industries Among Hosts Of Carly Fiorina Fundraiser

Christina Bellantoni | September 22, 2010, 11:08AM

US Senate candidate Carly Fiorina (R-CA)

Republican Senate hopeful Carly Fiorina will attend a high-dollar fundraiser Thursday night that includes Koch Industries PAC, a conservative megadonor that has been the subject of some high-profile magazine pieces of late.

The Koch brothers have become conservative super-villains for Democrats this year, igniting Democrats in the same way George Soros' spending on liberal causes enrages the right.

According to the invitation for the Thursday night reception at the National Republican Senatorial Committee headquarters near Union Station, hosts -- including Koch -- donated $2,500. It includes a special reception for sponsors Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, NRSC Chairman John Cornyn, Sen. Jon Kyl and the 26 hosts including Koch Industries PAC. The general reception with the Senate Republican caucus follows. Sponsors paid $5,000 per PAC or $2,400 for an individual sponsorship. The plastic surgeons' political action committee, Plastypac, also is a host.

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CA-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Dem Boxer Up 4 In CA-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | September 21, 2010, 4:36PM

Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Senate candidate Carly Fiorina (R-CA)

A newly released Rasmussen poll of the California Senate race finds Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer leading Republican former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina 47%-43%.

The latest survey tells a very different story than the one told by Rasmussen's September 6 survey. In that earlier poll, Fiorina was up on Boxer by five, 47%-42%. Fox News released new numbers on the contest this morning, which showed the Democrat leading Fiorina 47%-46%. Rasmussen's newest poll also echos the results from a September 16 PPP that had Boxer at 50% and Fiorina at 42%.

The TPM Poll Average shows Boxer leading Fiorina 46.7%-44.7%. The margin of error of the newest survey is ±4.0 percentage points.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

2010 elections

Fox News Poll: CA-SEN And CA-GOV Races Are Very, Very Close

Marc Kilstein | September 21, 2010, 11:44AM

Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Senate candidate Carly Fiorina (R-CA)

Fox News is out with new numbers on the California Senate and gubernatorial races this morning, and both races are looking tight... really, really tight.

The survey, conducted by Rasmussen offshoot Pulse Opinion Research through an automated dialing system, finds Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer leading Republican former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina by the narrowest of margins in the Senate race, 47%-46%. In the state's gubernatorial race, Democratic state Attorney General Jerry Brown and Republican former eBay CEO Meg Whitman are deadlocked, 45%-45%.

Read more »

CA-SEN

PPP Poll: Boxer At 50% Against Fiorina In CA-SEN Race

Eric Kleefeld | September 20, 2010, 12:26PM

Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Senate candidate Carly Fiorina (R-CA)

The new survey of the California Senate race from Public Policy Polling (D) shows Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer holding on to her lead against Republican former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina.

The numbers Boxer 50%, Fiorina 42%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3.9%. margin of error. In the previous PPP survey from late July, which used a more permissive registered-voter filter, Boxer led Fiorina by 49%-40%. The TPM Poll Average gives Boxer a lead of 47.2%-44.8%.

"The simple reality is that for a Republican to win in California they have to be appealing to Democrats and for now Carly Fiorina has not passed the test," writes PPP president Dean Debnam. "Barbara Boxer has her party's voters locked up and for a Democrat in California that's enough to win."

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CA-SEN

Fox News Poll: Boxer Leads Fiorina By Two Points In CA-SEN Race

Eric Kleefeld | September 14, 2010, 4:00PM

Carly Fiorina (R-CA), and Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA)

The new Fox News poll of the California Senate race gives Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer a narrow lead over Republican former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina.

The numbers: Boxer 46%, Fiorina 44%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error. There is no prior Fox News poll of this race, but this poll was conducted through an offshoot of Rasmussen, Pulse Opinion Research. The previous Rasmussen poll from last week gave Fiorina a one-point edge of 48%-47%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Boxer a narrow lead of just 46.7%-45.1%.

2010 elections

TPM's Top 10 Senate Races To Watch

Brian Beutler | September 13, 2010, 8:35AM

Kentucky Senate candidates Jack Conway and Rand Paul talk with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

Campaign season doesn't really heat up until September ... which means now. That means all the scandals and ads and ups and downs you've heard and read about in the last several months were just stage-setters. Most voters really begin paying attention now.

It's looking like a tough year for Senate Democrats, almost of whom are polling below 50 percent. Several weeks ago, many Republicans -- including NRSC Chair John Cornyn -- thought Republicans wouldn't be able to retake the Senate. Today, it's a distinct possibility. There are a number of critical races, but you should really keep an eye on these 10.

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CA-SEN

CNN/Time Poll: Boxer Leads In CA-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 8, 2010, 6:06PM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA)

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) is leading in her reelection bid against former HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R) -- but not by much. That's according to a new CNN/Time poll of 866 registered voters in California showing Boxer ahead 48-44.

The numbers are in line with past polling showing Boxer locked in a tough race with the wealthy Fiorina, who dominated the primary field in large part thanks to her comfort level with spending her own wealth on campaigning. More recent polls have shown Fiorina with the narrow lead among likely voters, suggesting that Boxer needs to motivate her base to overcome Fiorina's enthusiastic supporters.

The TPM Poll Average shows the race to be essentially tied, with Boxer leading 46.7-45.0.

2010 elections

It Ain't Pretty: Senate Dems Struggle To Hold 59 Seats (CHARTS)

Christina Bellantoni | September 7, 2010, 12:35PM

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV)

Just how bad is it out there? Consider the TPM charts below showing the poll averages from each of the elections for Senate seats currently held by Democrats. Not a single Democrat in a contested race sits above 50 percent. Worse yet, many of them are outright losing to Republicans.

Election Day is still weeks off, and anything, and we mean anything, can happen to change these numbers on a dime. And it's important to remember that there are so many more factors to consider than just polls, which, as we've proven again and again, can be wrong. Many of these Democratic incumbents have mountains of cash in the bank and President Obama has continued to be a massive fundraising strength for Democratic senators despite his unpopularity nationally. Plus, some of these Dems are up against barely-ready-for-prime-time Republicans with extreme views, and those numbers seem like they could waver.

But if every TPM Poll Average culled from our PollTracker and seen below were to hold on through Nov. 2, Democrats would lose at least five seats, and possibly as many as eight.

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CA-SEN

SurveyUSA Poll: Fiorina Leads Boxer By Two Points

Eric Kleefeld | September 3, 2010, 11:04AM

Carly Fiorina (R-CA), and Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA)

The new SurveyUSA poll of the California Senate race gives Republican Carly Fiorina a narrow edge over incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer.

The numbers: Fiorina 48%, Boxer 46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.2% margin of error. In the previous SurveyUSA poll from three weeks ago, Fiorina was actually given a wider lead of 47%-42%.

Other pollsters have generally been kinder to Boxer, showing her with narrow leads. As such, the TPM Poll Average gives Boxer a slight edge of 46.3%-44.4%, though Fiorina is also gaining. In either case, it seems clear that this race will be hotly fought through election day.

Full coverage of the race here.

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