TPMDC
CBO: October 2011

Defense Spending

Republicans Cry Uncle On Spending ... When Cuts Hit Home

It took months of fighting -- the threat of a government shutdown, the graver threat of a default on the national debt, and now a new threat of major, automatic cuts to Medicare and defense programs -- but Congress' deficit obsession has finally exposed the rarest of all species: Republican Keynesians.

With just a under a month until the deficit Super Committee must recommend policies that cut the 10 year deficit by $1.2 trillion, members of the Republican party -- the same party that's been on the war path for deep spending cuts, and that decries President Obama's "failed stimulus" -- are making uncharacteristic arguments against slashing spending. Trim too much, too quickly, they warn, and people will lose their jobs!

Call them Defense Keynesians -- GOP members who represent defense interests, veterans, service members, contractors, and others whose livelihoods would be impacted by deep cuts to defense spending. They don't want the Super Committee to cut much more, if any, from defense, and they certainly don't want to pull the so-called "trigger" which would cut defense across the board by about $600 billion starting in 2013, if the panel gridlocks.

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Topics: Barack Obama, CBO, Defense Spending, Deficit, Doug Elmendorf, Economy, Jobs, Stimulus, Unemployment

Chris Van Hollen

Dems Get A Boost For Super Committee Tax Bump

With less than a month before their November 23 deadline, Democrats on the deficit Super Committee are facing serious pushback from their Republican counterparts for proposing a broad deal that would reduce deficits by nearly $3 trillion -- including cuts to popular programs like Medicare -- because it also includes more than $1 trillion in new tax revenues, according to aides briefed on private negotiations.

Sources remain mum on the specifics of the cuts and taxes Dems have put forward. And they caution that most, but not all, of the Democrats on the panel support the push -- an effort to achieve multiple Republican votes for a plan modeled on the "grand bargain" President Obama tried to strike with John Boehner.

But they got some unexpected help from Congressional Budget Office director Doug Elmendorf who testified before the panel Wednesday. He cited analysis his office did about a year ago, which found that allowing the Bush tax cuts to expire would carry greater reward than risk -- that the hole they punch in the budget overwhelms the positive impact they have on productivity.

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Topics: Barack Obama, CBO, Chris Van Hollen, Congressional Budget Office, Doug Elmendorf, Finance Committee, John Boehner, Max Baucus, Medicaid, Medicare, Super Committee, Taxes

Paul Ryan

Paul Ryan Takes On Elizabeth Warren And The 99 Percent


Senate Candidate Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI)

Democrats want the 2012 elections to turn on the question of which party has a better vision for the country, and to win the ensuing battle of public perception, both parties are putting the brightest shine they can on their particular designs.

On Wednesday, the GOP pitted conservative darling Paul Ryan against liberal hero Elizabeth Warren, with Ryan serving as a tribune to wealthy Americans and Warren as a populist fighter for working people.

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Topics: Budget, CBO, Congressional Budget Office, Elizabeth Warren, Entitlement reform, Entitlements, Heritage Foundation, Medicare, Paul Ryan, Social Security, Tax Cuts, Taxes

CBO

CHARTS OF THE DAY: Where'd All The Income Growth Go? To The 1 percent!

At the request of the Senate Finance Committee, the Congressional Budget Office has produced a report analyzing trends in the distribution of household income from 1979 until 2007 -- just before the economy fell off a cliff.

The results will be familiar to economists and policy wonks, but they're eye-popping. These charts and graphs tell a story of a massive income growth in the Reagan and post-Reagan years, and particularly during the George W. Bush administration -- but only for the famous 1 percenters.

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Topics: CBO, George W. Bush, Medicare, Occupy Wall Street, Recession, Ronald Reagan, Social Security, Tax Cuts, Taxes, Wall Street

Health Care

CHART OF THE DAY: Repealing ObamaCare Would Be Disastrous For The Budget


President Barack Obama

The Government Accountability Office has updated its fiscal outlook for the U.S. government and come to some familiar conclusions. The country has a long term imbalance that will have to be addressed, but not until today's economic woes have passed. If Congress simply does nothing -- and allows the Bush tax cuts, and other temporary laws to expire -- the country's fiscal health will improve significantly over the long term.

TPM SLIDESHOW: Meeting and Greeting - Fall At The White House

But the report implies something that's been lost in the recent partisan debate over the country's future: repealing ObamaCare would consign us to swift, ugly fiscal and health care crises.

The health care reform law will extend subsidized private health insurance to millions of Americans, paid for with new taxes and Medicare savings. But it also included numerous demonstration projects and reforms intended to rein in the growth of health care costs, and thus Medicare spending. Some of them have great promise -- if they can survive.

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Topics: Barack Obama, CBO, Congressional Budget Office, GAO, Government Accountability Office, Health Care, Health Care Summit, Repealing health care

Super Committee

In Letter, House Progressives Press Super Committee On Jobs, Protecting Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security


Rep. Raul Grijalva

House progressives will press the joint deficit Super Committee to ditch entitlement cuts and pass measures to bolster the economy.

The co-chairs of the Congressional Progressive Caucus are rounding up Democratic signatures on a letter, obtained by TPM, pressing the 12 member panel to pair emergency jobs legislation with deficit reducing measures based on tax increases on wealthy Americans.

"We ask that you lead the Select Committee by these simple core principles," write Reps. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) and Keith Ellison (D-MN). "The American people have spoken loud and clear on their priorities for our nation. They want Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare protected, they want billionaires and corporations to finally pay their fair share and they want to be able to get back to work to earn a fair living."

Their effort is partially bolstered by a new CBO analysis, which found that the unemployment crisis is a massive driver of the deficit. In other words, effective job creation measures will go a good way toward closing the near and medium term hole in the budget.

You can read the entire letter, which has not yet been delivered to the Super Committee co-chairs, below the fold.

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Topics: CBO, Congressional Progressive Caucus, Deficit, Entitlement reform, Entitlements, Jobs, Keith Ellison, Medicaid, Medicare, Raul Grijalva, Social Security, Super Committee, Taxes