2010 elections

The Goodbyes Of 2010: Politicians Who Are Going Home

Eric Kleefeld | December 31, 2010, 1:52PM

Russ Feingold

As the year 2010 comes to a close and the year 2011 begins, it's time to look back on some of the politicians who are leaving office because of defeat, retirement, or the strange spaces that seem to fall in between.

These are folks who had a presence on the political scene, either long or short, but who have made their marks in different ways on the political consciousness in their arrivals, their service and their ultimate departures.

As is the fashion with these sorts of lists we do around here, the folks we've chosen to highlight include the folks that we and you, our readers, think of as being great -- and others who are so bad that they're good. Of course, there are plenty of departing pols who aren't here. This is just a sampling.

So goodbye to 2010, and goodbye to these politicians. But who knows, perhaps we'll be seeing some of them again, soon.

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Republican Marco Rubio Cruises To Victory In Florida Senate Race

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 2, 2010, 8:02PM

Marco Rubio

Marco Rubio, who has actually been compared to a young Barack Obama by excited Republicans, has ascended to the U.S. Senate from the state of Florida. Rubio has handily defeated both Gov. Charlie Crist, the independent candidate, and Rep. Kendrick Meek, the Democrat -- a three-way sweep that quite literally is the stuff GOP dreams are made of.

With 649 of 6,881 precincts reporting, Rubio leads Crist and Meek 51.6-28.9-19.5. CNN and Fox News have called the race for Rubio.

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Crist Adviser: He Would Caucus With The Dems In The Senate

Eric Kleefeld | October 29, 2010, 5:58PM

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist

Everyone knows that Republican Marco Rubio is ahead in the polls for the Florida Senate race, helped in part by a split in the anti-GOP vote between independent (and ex-GOPer) Charlie Crist and Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek. Crist has often refused to say for certain which party he would caucus with if he were elected. But as the Wall Street Journal an adviser to Crist says that he would caucus with the Dems if he were to win the election:

That's a big "if." Mr. Crist is trailing Republican candidate Marco Rubio in most polls. But the declaration by Florida trial lawyer John Morgan sheds light on one of the many mysteries in the Bill Clinton-Charlie Crist-Kendrick Meek imbroglio.

"Crist is going to caucus with the Democrats," Mr. Morgan said. "I don't think there's any ifs, ands or buts about it. It would be, in a very tight year, almost like a Democratic pickup in a solid Republican state."

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Democrat Meek Denies Agreeing To Clinton-Arranged Deal To Drop FL-SEN Bid And Endorse Charlie Crist

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 28, 2010, 8:10PM

Marco Rubio, Charlie Crist, and Kendrick Meek at a Florida Senate debate

An explosive new story from Politico's Ben Smith has led to some serious sniping between the two men trailing Republican Marco Rubio in the Florida Senate race. Smith reports that Bill Clinton orchestrated a deal with Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek (the guy currently running a distant third to Rubio) to drop out of the race and endorse independent candidate Charlie Crist, the guy running second.

The deal could have given Crist a real shot at beating Rubio and, therefore, moderates and Democrats a chance at stopping Rubio's rapid rise in the GOP. Rubio has been a conservative darling of the GOP ever since he pushed Crist out of the Republican primary and into his current independent bid. Most say Rubio will be a major player on the Republican scene if, as polls currently suggest, he cruises to victory Tuesday.

All that could have been different if Clinton's deal had happened. But, as Smith reports it, after first warming to the idea of dropping out -- things went so far that a unity rally was planned for Oct. 26 -- Meek "lost his enthusiasm for the arrangement, spurred in part...by his wife's belief that he could still win the race."

Now comes the sniping. Crist confirms Smith's account of things. Meek says it's not true. That's led to a new war of words between the two men while Rubio continues his march toward certain victory.

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Quinnipiac Poll: Crist Only Down 7 In FL-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | October 28, 2010, 2:31PM

FL Sen candidates Kendrick Meek (D), Charlie Crist (I), and Marco Rubio (R)

A new Quinnipiac poll of the Florida Senate race suggests independent Gov. Charlie Crist is not trailing Republican nominee Marco Rubio by as much as other recent polls would have you believe.

The three-way matchup finds Crist down seven points to Rubio, 42%-35%, with Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek polling at 15%. When Quinnipiac last polled this contest on October 10, the Governor was down a more significant 14 points, 44%-30%, with Meek earning 22%.

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Sunday Shows

The Sunday Show Line-Ups

Eric Kleefeld | October 22, 2010, 2:13PM

Marco Rubio, Charlie Crist, and Kendrick Meek at a Florida Senate debate

Here are the line-ups for the Sunday talk shows this weekend:

• ABC, This Week: DNC Chairman Tim Kaine, Retired Army Gen. Hugh Shelton

• CBS, Face The Nation: Karl Rove, DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen (D-MD).

• CNN, State Of The Union: Florida Senate candidates Marco Rubio (R), Kendrick Meek (D), Charlie Crist (I).

• Fox News Sunday: Senate candidate Pat Toomey (R-PA), Senate candidate Joe Manchin (D-WV).

• NBC, Meet The Press: RNC Chairman Michael Steele.

Charlie Crist

Already Low On Support, Charlie Crist Now Low On Cash

Marc Kilstein | October 21, 2010, 4:02PM

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist

Things are not looking good for independent Gov. Charlie Crist in the Florida Senate race. He trails significantly in the polls and is splitting support with Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek. And now, Crist appears to be running out of money.

According to his latest campaign report, the Senate candidate spent $7.4 million since August 5. As of October 1, this has left him with only $1.39 million on hand.

The TPM Poll Average finds Republican nominee Marco Rubio leading comfortably in the race, earning 45.6% versus Crist's 29.3% and Meek's 21.2%. The candidates are scheduled for two more debates this Sunday and next Tuesday.

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National GOP Says Rubio's Locked It Up In FL-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 14, 2010, 6:44PM

Marco Rubio (R)

It's all over but the shouting in the Florida Senate race, the NRSC says. Despite facing two well-funded nominees in Democrat Kendrick Meek and independent Charlie Crist, the national party is pulling $4 million in ad money out of Florida, a sure sign the party thinks Republican nominee Marco Rubio has things pretty close to locked up.

There's good reason for their confidence: Each new poll of the three-way contest shows Rubio picking up steam against his two opponents. The TPM Poll Average shows Rubio with 44.5%, Crist with 28.8% and Meek with 21.7%.

As you can see from the trendlines, Rubio's got the momentum:

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PPP Poll: Rubio Ahead In FL-SEN -- And Indy Crist Is The Stronger Anti-GOP Candidate

Eric Kleefeld | October 12, 2010, 4:48PM

Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL) and Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL)

The new survey of the Florida Senate race by Public Policy Polling (D) shows Republican Marco Rubio continuing to lead the three-way race. And it also suggests that if Democrats want to defeat Rubio, their best bet would be for the Dem nominee Rep. Kendrick Meek to fall by the wayside, and for people to throw their support behind GOPer-turned-independent Gov. Charlie Crist.

The numbers for the current three-way race: Rubio 44%, Crist 33%, and Meek 21%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.6% margin of error. In the previous PPP poll from late August, Rubio had 37%, Crist 36% and Meek 13%.

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Crist Campaign Says No Discussions With Meek On Endorsement

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 8, 2010, 4:31PM

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist

The Wall Street Journal article suggesting a massive shakeup in the three-way Florida Senate race is looking more and more like unsubstantiated speculation. Yesterday the Journal reported that Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek might be dropping his third-place bid to endorse the second-place independent candidate Charlie Crist.

Meek's campaign told me the story was "nonsense" earlier today, and now it's Team Crist's turn to throw more cold water on the story, which if true would add some excitement -- and competitive spirit -- to a race that polls show is now officially Republican nominee Marco Rubio's to lose.

"Our campaign has had no discussions," Crist spokesperson Danny Kanner told me this afternoon. But Kanner made it pretty clear that Crist wouldn't be opposed to the idea of seeing Meek exit the race.

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Democrat Pushes Back On Report That He May Drop Out Of FL-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 8, 2010, 12:47PM

Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL)

Kendrick Meek, the Democratic nominee and third-place candidate in the Florida Senate race, is pushing back on a report by the Wall Street Journal that he may drop out of the three-way contest and endorse independent candidate Charlie Crist in his fight against Republican nominee Marco Rubio.

"Total nonsense!" a Meek spokesperson told me in an email today. The campaign released a statement saying Meek "laughed out loud" when he heard about the Journal story.

The paper reported that "Republican leaders" in Florida "are fretting that a deal may be in the works" between the Meek and Crist camps, which are currently battling each other for Democratic votes while Rubio surges to a huge lead in public polling. The Journal's Stephen Moore reported a growing "GOP paranoia that Democrats may be getting ready to throw the sure loser Mr. Meek over the side."

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Rasmussen Poll: Rubio Winning 50% Support In FL-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 8, 2010, 12:35PM

Marco Rubio

The new Rasmussen poll of the Florida Senate race gives Republican Marco Rubio a huge lead. And in this poll he doesn't even have to rely on a split Democratic vote between independent (and ex-Republican) Gov. Charlie Crist and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek -- he's actually posting a solid 50% support in his own right.

The numbers: Rubio 50%, Crist 25%, and Meek 19%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from last week, Rubio had 41%, Crist 30%, and Meek 21%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Rubio 43.7%, Crist 28.5%, and Meek 21.6%.

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Polls: Rubio Maintaining Significant Lead In FL-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | October 7, 2010, 2:23PM

Senate candidate Marco Rubio (R-FL)

Republican nominee Marco Rubio was the clear target in last night's primetime debate among the Florida Senate race's three candidates. And according to recent polls, it was for good reason.

A new Mason-Dixon poll out today has the Republican leading big in the fight against independent Gov. Charlie Crist and Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek: Rubio is found ahead of Crist and Meek, respectively, 42%-27%-21%. When Mason-Dixon last took a look at this race on September 22, the Republican earned 40%, versus Crist's 28% and Meek's 23%.

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Crist And Meek Gang Up On Rubio: Three Men And A Debate In FL-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 7, 2010, 10:35AM

Marco Rubio, Charlie Crist, and Kendrick Meek at a Florida Senate debate

The three candidates vying for Florida's open Senate seat met in their first primetime debate last night. According to reports from the event, confirmed frontrunner and Republican nominee Marco Rubio was the target, with Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek and independent candidate Charlie Crist trying to curb Rubio's surging poll momentum.

Their preferred method? Push Rubio as far to the right as they could, thus leaving him out in the cold among the Sunshine State's swingy moderate electorate.

"You want to take us back to Dick Cheney days," Meek sniped at Rubio, according to the Washington Post.

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Rubio Ad: 'We All Know' What Crist Is Doing With Party Switch (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 6, 2010, 3:52PM

Marco Rubio (R) and Gov. Charlie Christ (I), candidates for US Senate in Florida

Marco Rubio has a new ad in the Florida Senate race, hammering ex-Republican and now independent Gov. Charlie Crist as an opportunist.

Though Rubio's ad doesn't directly mention the story, he appears to be alluding to Crist's recent insistence that he would have left the GOP and run as an independent even if he had been leading in the polls for the Republican primary. (At the time he switched, Rubio led in the polls for the primary by 20-30 points.)

"We all know what he's doing. Charlie Crist was losing, so he switched sides," Rubio says in the ad. "Just to win votes, he flip-flopped on everything, from the stimulus to ObamaCare. And when that failed, he started falsely attacking. Don't fall for it. Typical politicians who will say or do anything won't retire the national debt, protect Social Security, or help create a single new job. I'm Marco Rubio, and I approved this message because Washington already has enough politicians who care more about their own future than they do about yours."

The TPM Poll Average gives Rubio 42.7%, Crist 29.3%, and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek 21.9%.

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2010 elections

Tough New Ad In Florida: Charlie Crist's Republican Sound Bytes (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 29, 2010, 9:54AM

Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL)

A new ad in the three-way Senate race in Florida shows independent candidate Charlie Crist for the man he was for years: a prominent name in the Republican Party. That could be enough to sink him.

Coverage of the spot has called it "crushing" and a "death blow" for Crist's campaign. But really the ad is just a collection of Crist's past statements on camera (some less than a month old) espousing his own conservatism and his connection to the GOP.

Those connections are many. Crist, as you'll recall, was a rising star of the GOP in 2008, appearing on John McCain's shortlist for vice-presidential nominees before being heavily courted by the NRSC to run for Florida's open Senate seat. All that came before Marco Rubio and the tea party upended things for Republicans like Crist, eventually pushing Crist to leave the party and run for the Senate as an independent. But even that road was a bumpy one, with Crist first trying to shift hard to the right to take on Rubio before changing direction and running just as hard to the left to pick up Democratic votes as an independent.

All of this happened on camera, of course, meaning the stage was set for Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek's new ad the moment Crist changed parties. Still, the fact that Crist's past is such an obvious liability speaks to the problems he's facing stealing votes from the effective Meek.

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'Fire-Breathing Liberal' Dem Wexler Endorses Crist In FL-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | September 27, 2010, 5:38PM

Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL) and Fmr. Rep. Robert Wexler (D-FL)

Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL), the former Republican now running for Senate as an independent, picked up the support of a big Democratic name yesterday: Former Rep. Robert Wexler (D-FL), the self-proclaimed "fire-breathing liberal."

"There is a special time in which elected officials and people to which people look to have to put country before party and this is one of those times," Wexler told a campaign audience in his old district. "I am here to endorse Gov. Charlie Crist because he has earned it. He has truly earned it."

As reasons for his support, Wexler cited Crist's veto of a bill that would have eliminated teacher tenure -- a key event that sealed Crist's switch from a Republican to independent -- and his veto of another bill that would have required women seeking abortions to get ultra-sounds.

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Charlie Crist Goes Negative (Twice!) In New FL-SEN Ad (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 24, 2010, 9:55AM

From a Charlie Crist ad, "What We Don't Need in Washington"

So this is what a three-way Senate race looks like. Charlie Crist, the independent candidate in the Florida race that pits him against Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek and Republican nominee Marco Rubio is up with a negative spot that tries to tear down both of his rivals at the same time.

"Marco Rubio and Kendrick Meek," the ad's dark voiceover intones. "What we don't need in Washington."

In substance, the ad goes after both men on familiar themes. Rubio is the man who's under investigation for "using a Republican party credit card to pay for personal meals, trips and a family reunion." Meek is the guy who "steered government contracts to an indicted developer who then hired Meek's mother."

Both topics have been heavily discussed in the past. Rubio has denied any wrongdoing regarding the credit card accusations, and Meek just shook off the accusations about the developer that were at the center of Jeff Greene's primary campaign against him.

Of Crist's new ad, Meek says the negative attacks will hurt Crist in his quest to win Democratic votes in November. Recent polls have suggested that strategy is falling flat. "The governor is using the most cynical and desperate Republican attacks to stop the bleeding," Meek's campaign said in a press release today.

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2010 elections

Release The Chamber: Biz Group Goes On The Air In Key Senate Races (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 21, 2010, 1:29PM

U.S. Chamber of Commerce CEO Tom Donohue

The U.S. Chamber Of Commerce is dropping a flurry of TV ads in key Senate races across the country as we step into the final weeks of 2010 election season. The group has pledged $75 million in spending this cycle -- and if the first $2 million is any judge, most of that money is going to help Republicans.

Via the AP:

[The Chamber] has the biggest footprint, spending $1 million in Florida against Gov. Charlie Crist, who is running for the Senate as an independent. The chamber has endorsed the Republican candidate, Marco Rubio. The chamber is spending $500,000 in Kentucky against Democrat Jack Conway. The chamber this week endorsed Republican Rand Paul, and it is spending about $300,000 in New Hampshire against Senate Democratic candidate Paul Hodes and $250,000 in Colorado against Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet.

Not all of the Chamber's support is going to the GOP however. Just today, the Chamber announced it's backing Gov. Joe Manchin (D-WV) in the special election to fill the late Robert Byrd's Senate seat. No word yet on whether the group will buy pro-Manchin ads, but some recent polling shows the governor may need the help.

Here now are a sample of the Chamber's all-negative, all pro-GOP TV ads up across the country at the moment:

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2010 elections

Marcomentum: Republican Rubio Cruising In Florida Senate Polls

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 21, 2010, 8:44AM

Marco Rubio (R)

That Katie-bar-the-door, hold-on-to-your-butts, anything-could-happen-and-probably-will three-way Senate race down in Florida is turning out to be about as predictable as it looked like it was going to be back during primary season: once again, according to a slew of recent polls, the race is being defined by Marco Rubio's momentum.

It wasn't supposed to be this way. The Republican nominee for Senate was supposed to be locked in an epic struggle with independent candidate Charlie Crist and Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek. It was to be the Octagon of politics this year -- three men enter, one man leaves! -- the moment that Crist's political savvy and Meek's ability to excite the Democratic base gave Rubio a run for his considerable political fortunes.

Oh well. It was fun while it lasted. To be sure, nothing is decided yet. Crist just went up with his first negative ad of the general election and he still has plenty of money kicking around to make it tough for the Republican as Election Day approaches. But as Rubio has shored up Republican votes and Meek has shown that the statewide Democratic organizing skills he showed off in the primary are no fluke, Crist is running out of runway to really get his independent bid off the ground.

Polls show Crist is running out of time, too. With each passing day, it seems, Rubio's lead is increasing, meaning that Crist (and Meek, too, while we're at it) needs to slow the popular and handsome Republican's roll -- and fast. If last Friday's debate is any indication of how Rubio's rivals are doing when it comes to tearing him down, it's gonna be an uneventful trip to November.

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Rubio Ad Blasts 'Politicians Who Will Say Or Do Anything' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | September 20, 2010, 6:36PM

Former State House Speaker Marco Rubio (R-FL)

Marco Rubio has a new ad in the Florida Senate race. On the surface it seems like a boilerplate ad calling for change in Washington -- but one particular line seems to send a clear message.

"Washington isn't just broke, it's broken. But it won't get better if we keep electing politicians who will say or do anything just to hold office," says Rubio. "Government is out of touch. Spending is out of control. Foreign debt threatens our economic and national security. And typical politicians just don't get it."

Hmm, "politicians who will say or do anything." Could Rubio -- who is running against a governor who was a Republican but switched to independent for the general election -- be referring to anyone in particular?

The TPM Poll Average gives Rubio the lead with 39.1%, followed by Crist at 30.6%, and Democrat Kendrick Meek with 21.2%.

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Crist Ad: I Vetoed Rubio's Earmarks (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | September 20, 2010, 12:14PM

Ad from Senate candidate Charlie Crist (I-FL), "Vetoed"

Charlie Crist has a new ad in the Florida Senate race, with the independent ex-Republican trying to challenge GOP nominee Marco Rubio's fiscal bonafides.

In the ad, Crist touts his vetoing of earmarks from a state budget in 2007 -- pinning those earmarks on Rubio, who was Speaker of the state House at the time.

"Have you seen Marco Rubio's ads attacking me? Here's what he's hiding. Rubio tried to sneak almost $500 million in earmarks into the budget. I vetoed them," Crist declares. "One and a half million dollars for a rowing institute. Vetoed. $800,000 for artificial turf on a Miami field where he played flag football. I vetoed that, too.

"Just remember, the Washington special interests who are paying for Rubio's ads don't want an independent like me looking out for your money."

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Club For Growth

Club For Growth Ads Target Senate Candidates In Five Key Races (VIDEO)

Marc Kilstein | September 16, 2010, 5:48PM

From a Club For Growth ad

A new arm of the conservative group Club for Growth has rolled out a $1.5 million television ad campaign today, with spots targeting "the liberal, out-of-touch" records of five Democratic Senate candidates. Let's take a look.

First up -- Nevada. The TPM Poll Average shows Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid leading Republican Sharron Angle 47.3%-44.7%. Club for Growth's ad suggests that Angle "understands what Nevada is going through." While she lives in her "middle class Nevada house", Reid is living in the "million-dollar Ritz Carlton in Washington."

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More Trouble For Crist: He's Listed Way, Way Down On The Ballot

Eric Kleefeld | September 16, 2010, 11:04AM

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist

Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL), who left the Republican Party to run for Senate as an independent, is now running into one of many complications of his new independent status. As the St. Petersburg Times reports, Crist will be listed almost at the very bottom of the ballot, in the ninth position out of ten.

Under state law, Republican Marco Rubio will be listed first as the candidate of the party currently holding the governor's mansion, followed by Democrat Kendrick Meek, then various minor parties candidates, and then independents in the order in which they filed their papers. As the paper reports, Crist already seems to be getting tripped up by this development -- even he's confused about where he'll be listed.

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Polls: Rubio Leads Big In FL-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | September 15, 2010, 4:59PM

Senate candidate Marco Rubio (R-FL)

Two new polls of the Florida Senate race out today show Republican nominee Marco Rubio with a significant lead over independent Gov. Charlie Crist and Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek.

On the heels of a Fox News poll that showed Rubio with a huge lead, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll and Rasmussen poll also show Rubio way out in front. The Reuters/Ipsos poll has Rubio at 40%, Crist at 26%, and Meek at 21%. The previous Ipsos poll, from August 10, showed Crist leading Rubio and Meek 33%-29%-17%. Tellingly, when the new Ipsos survey asked for respondents' preferential candidate if Meek was not in the race, the Republican only earned a slight 46%-45% advantage over Crist.

Today's Rasmussen poll has Rubio leading 41%-30%-23%. Not much change from an August 25 Rasmussen poll that found Rubio leading the contest 40% to Crist's 30% and Meek's 21%.

The latest Reuters/Ipsos survey is among likely voters and has a margin of error of ±4.6 percentage points. Rasmussen's numbers have a margin of error of ±4.0. The TPM Poll Average of the contest shows Rubio leading 39.1% to Crist's 30.6% and Meek's 21.2%.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

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Fox News Poll: Rubio Way Ahead In FL-SEN Race

Eric Kleefeld | September 14, 2010, 2:25PM

Senate candidate Marco Rubio (R-FL)

The new Fox News poll of the Florida Senate race has very good news for Republican Marco Rubio, with him holding a commanding lead over independent Gov. Charlie Crist and Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek.

The numbers: Rubio 43%, Crist 27%, and Meek 21%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error. There is no prior Fox News poll of this race -- but this one was conducted through a Rasmussen offshoot, Pulse Opinion Research, and the previous Rasmussen poll from late August had Rubio ahead by 40%-30%-21%.

The poll's internals show the worst-case scenario for Dems of Meek and the ex-Republican Crist splitting the Dem vote, with Meek ahead of Crist 46%-39% with that demographic, plus 11% for Rubio. Among Republicans, Rubio is ahead of Crist and Meek by 74%-13%-4% -- meaning that Crist is not holding on to much of his old Republican base, if these numbers are accurate -- and among independents Rubio leads Crist and Meek by 39%-33%-9%.

The TPM Poll Average puts Rubio ahead of Crist and Meek by 38.1%-32.1%-20.3%.

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Charlie Crist Reaches Out To Indys With New TV Spots (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 13, 2010, 2:30PM

Charlie Crist for US Senate TV Ad: "Line in the Sand"

Charlie Crist is up with two new TV spots intended to help Florida voters understand his transition from Republican to independent in Florida's strange three-way Senate race. The message in the ads is potentially a strong one for the swingy Sunshine State electorate: I'm an independent, so I can do what I want, Crist explains. Partisan lines don't define me.

But the delivery...well, judge for yourself. If you want some political trivia questions to ask yourself while you watch, try these: is the sunny -- and oil-free -- beach setting for these ads a veiled reference to Crist's roundly praised handling of the Florida part of the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico? Does the fact that Crist ends the second ad standing on the "Republican" side of the line mean he wouldn't caucus with Democrats? Does defending the stimulus in the first spot mean he's definitely going to caucus with the Democrats? Is that really Crist drawing a line in the sand in the second spot or did they use a stunt stick?

The TPM Poll Average for the three-way Senate race in Florida shows Republican nominee Marco Rubio with 36.8% of the vote, Crist with 33.4% and Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek with 19.9%.

Watch Crist's new ads:

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2010 elections

TPM's Top 10 Senate Races To Watch

Brian Beutler | September 13, 2010, 8:35AM

Kentucky Senate candidates Jack Conway and Rand Paul talk with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

Campaign season doesn't really heat up until September ... which means now. That means all the scandals and ads and ups and downs you've heard and read about in the last several months were just stage-setters. Most voters really begin paying attention now.

It's looking like a tough year for Senate Democrats, almost of whom are polling below 50 percent. Several weeks ago, many Republicans -- including NRSC Chair John Cornyn -- thought Republicans wouldn't be able to retake the Senate. Today, it's a distinct possibility. There are a number of critical races, but you should really keep an eye on these 10.

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Poll: Rubio Has Big Lead In FL-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 9, 2010, 2:01PM

Senate candidate Marco Rubio (R-FL)

Marco Rubio, the Republican nominee for Senate in Florida, has a commanding lead over his two opponents according to a new poll of the contest out today.

Sunshine State News, a conservative-leaning Florida news site, surveyed 1,016 likely voters Sept. 1-7 and found Rubio with a double digit lead over Gov. Charlie Crist (I) and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D). The poll shows Rubio drawing 43% of the vote in the three-way contest, with Crist a distant second with 29%. Meek is close to him with 23% of the vote. The poll has a margin of error of around 3%.

Past polling has shown the race to be much closer than what SSN's poll reports. In the TPM Poll Average, Rubio draws 36.8% of the vote, Crist 33.4% and Meek 19.9%.

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CNN/Time Poll: Rubio Leads 3-Way FL-SEN Race While Meek's Fortunes Rise

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 8, 2010, 7:00PM

FL Sen candidates Kendrick Meek (D), Charlie Crist (I), and Marco Rubio (R)

Marco Rubio, the Republican nominee for Senate in Florida, is leading the state's strange three-way race to fill an open Senate seat. According to a new CNN/Time poll of the race -- which pits Rubio against Democrat Kendrick Meek and independent Charlie Crist -- Rubio leads Crist 36-34. Meek comes in third with 24% of the vote.

Past polling has shown Crist and Rubio swapping leads in the contest while Meek has generally run well behind the two. The 24% he pulls in the new CNN/Time poll is one of the highest totals Meek has drawn in a public poll for months, coming on the heels of Meek's strong win in the Democratic primary and subsequent boost in media attention and name ID. Meek has been targeting Crist heavily in the past couple weeks, joining with Rubio in multiple attacks calling the independent candidate a hypocrite. It looks like his strategy has been working -- most likely to Crist's detriment.

The TPM Poll Average shows Rubio with 35.5% of the vote, Crist with 34.3% and Meek with 19.3%.

The CNN/Time survey of 899 registered voters was conducted Sept. 2-7. The margin of error is 3.5%.

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Crist, Meek Roll Out New Ads In FL-SEN Race (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | September 7, 2010, 10:32AM

Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL) for US Senate TV Ad: "Best of Both"

The two non-Republican candidates in the Florida Senate race have some new ads in this wild and wacky election, with some amusing new spots from independent Gov. Charlie Crist and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek.

In the Crist ad, the ex-Republican walks alongside some large physical letters, a bit less than waist-high, that spell out "DEMOCRATS" in blue and "REPUBLICANS" in red. Crist talks about how as an independent he will be able to focus on common goals and take the best ideas of both sides -- as he rearranges the letters into alternating blue and red, to spell out "AMERICANS."

"Because at the end of the day, there's only one party I work for," says Crist.

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Florida State Senate Dem Leader Endorses Indy Charlie Crist For Senate

Eric Kleefeld | September 3, 2010, 3:48PM

Florida state Senate Minority Leader Al Lawson (D) and Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL)

Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL), the ex-Republican who left his former party to run for Senate as an independent, has received the endorsement of a top-ranking Florida Democrat: State Senate Minority Leader Al Lawson.

"Florida desperately needs an independent senator in Washington who will fight for good jobs and economic opportunity, a quality education for every child, and Social Security for all of our seniors regardless of what the political party bosses want," Lawson said in a statement. "Charlie Crist will be exactly that Senator, and I am proud to endorse his candidacy."

This is certainly a big get for Crist, on multiple levels. Obviously, snagging the support of a top state Democrat is as clear a sign as he needs for Dem voters that it's admissible to vote for him. It also feeds into the widely held narrative -- never confirmed or denied by Crist -- that he would caucus as a Democrat in Washington.

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FL-SEN

NRSC To Pump $2.5 Million Into Florida To Help Rubio

Eric Kleefeld | September 1, 2010, 11:58AM

Marco Rubio (R) and Gov. Charlie Christ (I), candidates for US Senate in Florida

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is stepping up its efforts to elect Marco Rubio in the Senate, the St. Petersburg Times reports, with the national party group committing the legal maximum of $2.5 million to coordinated advertising with his campaign.

A key reason could be that ex-Republican and now independent Gov. Charlie Crist has a cash-on-hand figure of $8 million to Rubio's $4.5 million. The paper recognizes the irony of all this -- the NRSC previously embraced Crist's candidacy for the Republican nomination and tried to stop Rubio's rise, right up until Crist bolted the party to run as an independent when the GOP primary polls went insurmountably in Rubio's direction.

The TPM Poll Average gives Rubio a narrow lead with 35.2%, followed by Crist at 34.7%, and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek at 17.8%.

FL-SEN

Meek Radio Ad: 'Don't Be Fooled,' Crist Is A Republican (AUDIO)

Eric Kleefeld | September 1, 2010, 11:05AM

Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL) and Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL)

Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL), the Democratic nominee in the Florida Senate race, has a new radio ad out attacking independent Gov. Charlie Crist -- and seeking to undermine any feeling among Dem voters that Crist could end up caucusing with the Democrats.

The ad declares that Crist's "home" is with the GOP, and features audio of various statements that Crist made when he was a Republican. Examples include, "I'm a Jeb Bush Republican," "I was impressed at Governor Palin being picked," and "I'm about as conservative as you can get."

"Now Charlie Crist is running for Senate as an independent -- while he still supports extending the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy," says the announcer. "Don't be fooled. If Charlie Crist gets to Washington, his heart will lead him right back where he belongs."

The TPM Poll Average gives Republican Marco Rubio a narrow lead with 35.2%, followed by Crist at 34.7% -- and Meek way behind for now with 17.8%.

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Sunday Shows

The Sunday Show Line-Ups

Eric Kleefeld | August 27, 2010, 4:41PM

Republican candidate for US Senate in Alaska Joe Miller

Here are the line-ups for the Sunday talk shows this weekend:

• ABC, This Week: Secretary of Education Arne Duncan, American Federation of Teachers President Randi Weingarten, D.C. Public Schools Chancellor Michelle Rhee.

• CBS, Face The Nation: Senate candidate Joe Miller (R-AK), Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL), Gov. Haley Barbour (R-MS), Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL).

• CNN, State Of The Union: Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Shaun Donovan, Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL), Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL).

• Fox News Sunday: Glenn Beck.

• NBC, Meet The Press: Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA), New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu (D), Brad Pitt.

FL-SEN

In One Afternoon, Charlie Crist Flip-Flop-Flips On Health Care Reform

Evan McMorris-Santoro | August 27, 2010, 3:02PM

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist

Charlie Crist would not have voted for the Democratic health care reform law had he been in the Senate this year. But, please, don't ask him to say that out loud.

The campaign of GOP Senate nominee Marco Rubio is having a field day with an interview Crist gave to a Florida cable news station this afternoon in which Crist pretty clearly says "I would have voted for it," when asked about the health care law President Obama signed in March. The answer was a flip-flop from Crist's past public opposition to the law first voiced back when he was still a Republican running against Rubio in the primary. (On Crist's campaign website he remains publicly opposed to the law, stating "Had I been in the United States Senate at the time, I would have voted against the bill because of unacceptable provisions like the cuts to the Medicare Advantage program.")

Here's video (clipped by the Rubio camp):

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FL-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Rubio's Lead Grows To Double-Digits In Florida

Evan McMorris-Santoro | August 26, 2010, 12:24PM

Marco Rubio

Looks like the biggest winner of the Senate primary season in Florida could be Marco Rubio. Now that the Senate field is set, Rubio, the Republican nominee, is in the driver's seat, according to a new poll from Rasmussen. The survey of 750 likely voters taken the day after the August 24 primary shows Rubio with 40% of the vote, independent Charlie Crist with 30% and Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek with 21%.

The last Rasmussen poll of the race -- taken on Aug. 9 in the midst of the heated Democratic primary -- showed Rubio leading Crist 38-33 with Meek drawing 21% of the vote. The new poll shows Rubio has doubled his lead over Crist.

Rubio also now leads the TPM Poll Average, but by a much, much smaller margin. Rubio leads Crist 35.2-34.7, with Meek drawing 17.8.

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FL-SEN

Does Meek's Primary Win Hurt Crist -- And Help Rubio?

Eric Kleefeld | August 25, 2010, 9:35AM

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist and Rep. Kendrick Meek

It's possible that Kendrick Meek's win in the Florida Democratic Senate primary could be good news for Republican Marco Rubio. And this is not because of any deficiencies on Meek's part. Instead, it's the fact that he's a much better Dem candidate than his primary rival, businessman Jeff Greene, and could end up winning too many Democratic votes and splitting the anti-Rubio vote with the other big player in the race, the ex-Republican and now independent Gov. Charlie Crist.

Keep in mind that it is widely believed that Crist would potentially caucus with the Democrats if he won the Senate race. As a result, he has soaked up a lot of Democratic support in many polls throughout the state -- not to mention the cash of Dem fundraisers -- effectively overshadowing both Meek and Greene as the true opponent to Rubio. But of course, in order to caucus with the Senate Dems, Crist would have to get elected to the Senate first, and would have to hold onto his independent and Republican voters while simultaneously grabbing a lot of the Dems. And it seems intuitive that Meek, a Congressman who has supported Obama's agenda in Congress, would be more appealing to Dem voters than Greene, the hard-partying businessman who previously ran for Congress as a Republican in the 1980s.

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