NJ-GOV

Christie Takes Early Lead In New Jersey

Rachel Slajda | November 3, 2009, 8:43PM

Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) and Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R)

Republican Chris Christie has taken an early lead in New Jersey, leading Gov. Jon Corzine 52 to 42 with 35 percent of precincts reporting. Chris Daggett, the Independent candidate, trails with six percent of the vote.

The all-important Independent vote appears to be going to Christie, with an early CNN exit poll showing 58 percent of Independents voting for the Republican candidate and only 33 percent going to Corzine. According to the poll, 28 percent of New Jersey voters are Independents.

CNN's exit polling also shows that 38 percent of voters said they were looking for change as the number one quality in a candidate. Most of those voted for Christie.

NJ-GOV

Christie Camp Calls For State Investigation Of Dem Robocalls Promoting Indy Candidate Daggett

Eric Kleefeld | November 3, 2009, 3:29PM

NJ-GOV Candidates Chris Daggett (I), Chris Christie (R) and Gov. Jon Corzine (D)

The Christie campaign is complaining to the state about a tactic from the New Jersey Democrats -- who have admitted to making robocalls to promote independent candidate Chris Daggett.

The calls happened in Somerset County, an area where Christie should likely do very well, and where any addition in vote for Daggett would likely come more from Christie's column than Corzine's.

The Christie campaign has sent a letter to ELEC (the state equivalent of the Federal Election Commission), demanding an investigation into the calls and an immediate directive that the Dems stop it, on the grounds that the calls would constitute an illegal in-kind contribution from the Dems to Daggett.

Keep in mind that these calls have been done in the final two days of a campaign -- meaning there's really no way to feasibly stop them, or to undo any potential damage that they might inflict.

NJ-GOV

Daggett Votes: I Practiced Finding My Name On The Sample Ballot

Eric Kleefeld | November 3, 2009, 2:32PM

Chris Daggett, independent candidate for governor in New Jersey

Independent New Jersey gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett voted this morning -- in a process that involved some jokes about his obscure location on many county ballots, mixed in among numerous minor candidates.

As the Star-Ledger reports:

After taking a few minutes to fill out his ballot a poll worker said, "he can't find his name!"

When Daggett emerged he responded, "I found my name. I practiced on the sample ballot."

On my own absentee ballot, issued by Essex County, Daggett's name was ninth out of 12 choices. Corzine was first, and Christie was second, with a whole lot of lesser-known independent and third-party candidates between Daggett and the two major nominees.

NJ-GOV

New Jersey Dems Admit To Robocalls Promoting Indy Candidate Daggett In GOP County

Eric Kleefeld | November 2, 2009, 5:52PM

Chris Daggett, independent candidate for governor in New Jersey

The New Jersey Democrats have been caught in a dirty trick in the home stretch of the gubernatorial race, PolitickerNJ reports, sending out robocalls promoting independent Chris Daggett to a Republican-leaning county.

The calls went to Somerset County, which has usually been a Republican stronghold. It did vote for Barack Obama in 2008, but it also voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004, and for the GOP candidates for governor in 2001 and 2005, and for Senate in 2000, 2002, 2006 and 2008. (In two of those elections listed, Jon Corzine was the Democratic nominee.)

State Party chairman Joe Cryan had previously denied that the calls came from the Dems, though they did in fact say at the end that they were paid for by "NJDSC" (New Jersey Democratic State Committee), and listed the party's address. A party spokesperson has told PolitickerNJ that Cryan was unaware of the calls when he'd made the denial.

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NJ-GOV

Polls Show No Obvious Winner In New Jersey

Eric Kleefeld | November 2, 2009, 5:37PM

Chris Christie (R) and Jon Corzine (D)

Let's take a look at the final polls in New Jersey, which present a mixed bag of results and really no clear verdict as to who will win the close race between Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine and Republican former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie.

This race will really come down to two big questions: a) Which side is the better get-out-the-vote operation, and b) If independent Chris Daggett loses support in the voting booth, how many of his breakaway voters will be Corzine-leaners or Christie-leaners? Given past history in New Jersey, the Democrats probably have the edge on the first question. The second question, however, is simply unknowable at this time.

• The Monmouth poll has Corzine ahead 43%-41%, Daggett at 8%, with a ±3.7% margin of error. The previous poll from late last week had Christie ahead by 43%-42%-8%. The movement from one poll to the next was not statistically significant.

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NJ-GOV

Poll: Corzine Edging Christie By 43%-41%

Eric Kleefeld | November 2, 2009, 1:27PM

Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) and Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R)

The new Monmouth poll of the New Jersey gubernatorial race gives Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine a narrow lead over Republican Chris Christie, in an election that is really anyone's guess going into Election Day tomorrow.

The numbers: Corzine 43%, Christie 41%, and independent Chris Daggett 8%, with a ±3.7% margin of error. This poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday. In the previous poll released yesterday, which was conducted Wednesday through Friday, Christie had a lead of 43%-42%-8%, not a statistically significant change.

From the pollster's analysis: "This race is still as close as it can be. It's possible that President Obama's visit boosted the governor's chances. But it is also likely that some anti-Corzine voters are still unsure of casting their lot with Christie. If the undecided vote breaks largely for the Republican, this race could be a squeaker."

Chris Daggett

Poll: Corzine Leads Christie By 41%-37%

Eric Kleefeld | November 2, 2009, 1:12PM

Chris Christie (R) and Jon Corzine (D)

The new Democracy Corps (D) poll of New Jersey finds Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine with a narrow lead over his Republican opponent Chris Christie, contrary to other polls today that have put Christie ahead.

The numbers: Corzine 41%, Christie 37%, and independent Chris Daggett 15%, with a ±4% margin of error. Last week, Corzine was ahead by 43%-38%-12%.

When Daggett-supporters are pushed to support a major candidate, Corzine is ahead by 47%-41%, which is consistent with other polls that have shown Daggett currently taking more votes away from Corzine than Christie. Third-party candidates often lose significant support on Election Day -- so this race could really turn on how many votes Daggett loses in the voting booth, and how many of those people are Corzine-leaners or Christie-leaners.

NJ-GOV

Poll: Christie Up Over Corzine 45%-42%

Eric Kleefeld | November 2, 2009, 12:20PM

Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) and Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R)

The new SurveyUSA poll of the New Jersey gubernatorial race gives Republican nominee Chris Christie a narrow lead over Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine in the home stretch.

The numbers: Christie 45%, Corzine 42%, and independent Chris Daggett 10%, with a ±4.1% margin of error. Late last week, Corzine and Christie were tied at 43%-43%-11%.

The pollster's analysis supplies its own caveats for the poll data: "On 2 of the 3 nights, much of NJ was home watching local teams play in the World Series. And: 1 of the 3 nights was Halloween, when families with children are home in uniquely large numbers. As such, results of this survey should be interpreted cautiously: a narrow Corzine victory is not inconsistent with the data, but a narrow Christie win is more consistent with the data."

The final polls have been showing some momentum for Christie in the home stretch. Let's see whether it holds true tomorrow night, or whether the New Jersey Dems' ground game puts Corzine over the top.

NJ-GOV

Poll: Christie Ahead of Corzine By 42%-40%

Eric Kleefeld | November 2, 2009, 8:54AM

Chris Christie (R) and Jon Corzine (D)

The new Quinnipiac poll of the New Jersey gubernatorial races gives Republican nominee Chris Christie a slim lead over Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine -- a late Christie surge, after Quinnipiac last poll had put Corzine ahead.

The numbers: Christie 42%, Corzine 40%, and independent Chris Daggett 12%, with a ±2.5% margin of error. In the previous poll from last week, Corzine had 43%, Christie 38%, and Daggett 13%.

The pollster's analysis says that as of right now, Daggett is taking more votes away from Corzine than he is from Christie: "Daggett is the key to an incredibly close New Jersey election."

NJ-GOV

Poll: Christie Ahead Of Corzine By 47%-41%

Eric Kleefeld | November 1, 2009, 11:57PM

Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) and Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R)

The new survey of the New Jersey gubernatorial race from Public Policy Polling (D) gives Republican nominee Chris Christie a six-point leader over Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine.

The numbers: Christie 47%, Corzine 41%, and independent Chris Daggett 11%, with a ±3.1% margin of error. The previous poll from last week gave Christie a narrower lead of 42%-38%-13%.

From the pollster's analysis: "If Christie does indeed end up as the winner it will be an indication that you can only be so unpopular as an elected official and still hope to get reelected. 57% of voters in the state have an unfavorable opinion of Corzine while only 34% view him positively. Christie isn't exactly Mr. Popularity, as only 43% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of him to 42% negative, but compared to Corzine those numbers look pretty good."

Late Update: Another poll from today, Monmouth poll, gives Christie an edge of 43%-42%, plus Daggett with 8%, with a ±3% margin of error. The previous poll from two weeks ago had the race tied at 39%-39%-14%.

NJ-GOV

More Polls Show A Tight Race In New Jersey

Eric Kleefeld | October 30, 2009, 2:33PM

Chris Christie (R) and Jon Corzine (D)

Two new polls show that the New Jersey gubernatorial race continues to be neck and neck between Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine and Republican former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie.

• In the new Rasmussen poll, respondents' initial preferences were Christie 42%, Corzine 39%, and independent Chris Daggett 12%. After Daggett supporters were asked if they were sure they would vote for him -- along with the process of pushing undecideds who might lean towards a candidate -- the result becomes a Christie lead of 46%-43%-8%, with a ±3% margin of error.

• The new Stockton College/Zogby poll: Corzine 40%, Christie 39%, and Daggett 14%, with a ±3% margin of error.

• The new Neighborhood Research (R) poll: Christie 42%, Corzine 35%, Daggett 8%, with a ±5.3% margin of error.

So which poll, out of these three or any others, should you believe? Keep in mind that a poll with Corzine up by two points is not significantly different from a poll with Christie up by two points, statistically speaking. The vast majority of polls have shown this race to be within just a couple points -- and they're probably right.

NJ-GOV

Poll: Corzine Ahead Of Christie 43%-42%

Eric Kleefeld | October 30, 2009, 6:43AM

Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) and Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R)

The new Fairleigh Dickinson poll of the New Jersey gubernatorial race gives Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine a slim edge over his Republican opponent Chris Christie.

The numbers: Corzine 43%, Christie 42%, and independent Chris Daggett 6%, with a ±4% margin of error. (Daggett was not listed as a choice, but was a voluntary answer.) This is basically unchanged from three and a half weeks ago, when Corzine was ahead 43%-42%-4% on this ballot test.

The pollster's analysis shows just how much an effect the presence of Daggett and other independents will have, and how the result can depend on how many voters he keeps or where others go: "When Daggett's name is read in an interview along with Jon Corzine's and Chris Christie's names, he gets 14% of the vote, drawing slightly more Democrats than Republicans, while Christie edges Corzine in a statistical tie, 41%-39%. But when the name of another independent candidate is read--the obscure Gary Steele--Steele gets 3% of the vote, draws off slightly more Republicans than Democrats, and Corzine beats Christie 46%- 41%."

NJ-GOV

Poll: Corzine And Christie Tied, Corzine Ahead Among Absentee Voters

Eric Kleefeld | October 29, 2009, 6:17PM

Chris Christie (R) and Jon Corzine (D)

The new SurveyUSA poll of New Jersey has the race tied between Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine and Republican challenger Jon Corzine.

The numbers: Corzine 43%, Christie 43%, and independent Chris Daggett 11%, with a ±4% margin of error. Last week, Christie was ahead by 41%-39%-19%. It's interesting to see that Daggett has fallen in the run-up to election day, as often happens with third-party candidates, and that Corzine may have been the beneficiary.

Also, the pollster's analysis says that Corzine has already banked a lead in absentee voters: "Corzine leads among the 11% of voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot. The candidates are even among voters who have not yet voted but say they will on or before election day. At this hour, the contest is a coin-toss. The lower the turnout, the better for Corzine."

NJ-GOV

Poll Gives Christie One-Point Lead

Eric Kleefeld | October 29, 2009, 4:43PM

Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) and Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R)

The new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of New Jersey gives Republican Chris Christie a one-point lead, in a race that has been on a knife's edge between him and Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine.

The numbers: Christie 42%, Corzine 41%, and independent Chris Daggett with 14%, with a ±4% margin of error. Four weeks ago, Christie led by 46%-42%-7%.

Both major candidates are viewed negatively by voters. Corzine's favorable rating is only 38%, with 55% unfavorable, while Christie is at 43%-46%. Daggett is in positive territory, but only with 35%-16% and nearly half of voters having no opinion of him.

NJ-GOV

Poll: Corzine Ahead Of Christie By 43%-38%

Eric Kleefeld | October 29, 2009, 3:53PM

Chris Christie (R) and Jon Corzine (D)

The new Democracy Corps (D) poll of New Jersey gives Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine a five-point lead over his main rival, Republican former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie.

The numbers: Corzine 43%, Christie 38%, and independent Chris Daggett 12%, with a ±4% margin of error. A week ago, Corzine led in the three-way poll by 42%-39%-13%.

When Daggett-supporters are pushed to choose between one of the top two candidates, Corzine's five-point lead holds steady at 47%-42%. This would suggest that Daggett is taking from both candidates equally at this point, despite a general impression during much of this race that he's taken more votes from Christie.

NJ-GOV

Report: White House Intervened In New Jersey Race

Eric Kleefeld | October 29, 2009, 9:36AM

Pres. Obama and Gov. Jon Crozine (D-NJ)

New Jersey Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine, who seriously trailed Republican nominee Chris Christie in polls over the summer but has caught up in the past few weeks, has reportedly seen a heavy increase in White House involvement in his campaign during that same period of recovery.

The Politico reports that the White House sent senior adviser David Axelrod and political director Patrick Gaspard to New Jersey in August, to express the White House's concerns about the race. One Corzine aide said there was a message being sent that Corzine should consider dropping out of the race -- which Corzine never would have done -- but that allegation was denied by White House officials.

Corzine did end up replacing his pollster, Mark Mellman, with Obama pollster Joel Berenson, who is also experienced in New Jersey politics. In the time since then, Corzine has focused his attacks against Christie on key issues like health care -- especially his accusation that Christie's health insurance proposals would result in women losing mammogram coverage -- and allegations of Christie abusing his office as U.S. Attorney.

NJ-GOV

Poll: Corzine Ahead of Christie By 43%-38%

Eric Kleefeld | October 28, 2009, 6:36AM

Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) and Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R)

The new Quinnipiac poll in New Jersey gives Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine a five-point lead over Republican Chris Christie.

The numbers: Corzine 43%, Christie 38%, and independent Chris Daggett 13%, with a ±2.8% margin of error. Two weeks ago, Christie had an edge of 41% to Corzine's 40%, and Daggett was at 14%.

This poll suggests that Daggett is taking more votes away from Christie than Corzine, with his voters listing Christie as their second choice by a 43%-27%. This runs contrary to a Public Policy Polling (D) survey that showed Corzine as their second choice, but keep in mind these sub-samples have very high margins of error.

From the pollster's analysis: "You could see it coming. Gov. Jon Corzine's numbers crept steadily up and Christopher Christie's steadily shrank and now, for the first time, we have Corzine ahead. But don't be in a hurry to mark this election as over. Christopher Daggett changed it from 'ABC' - Anybody But Corzine - to a real three-way scrap. But a lot of Daggett's voters say they might change their minds by Election Day. Where will they go?"

NJ-GOV

Poll: Christie Ahead of Corzine By 42%-38%

Eric Kleefeld | October 27, 2009, 10:43AM

Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) and Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R)

The new survey of the New Jersey gubernatorial by Public Policy Polling (D) finds Republican Chris Christie leading Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine -- with independent Chris Daggett possibly playing spoiler against Corzine.

The numbers: Christie 42%, Corzine 38%, and Daggett 13%, with a 3.9% margin of error. Two weeks ago, Christie was ahead in PPP's survey by 40%-39%-13%.

The internals of the poll suggest that Daggett may actually be siphoning more voters from Corzine right now than from Christie -- a big change from two weeks ago. In the latest poll, 42% of the present pool of Daggett-supporters list Corzine as their second choice, compared to 32% for Christie. By contrast, Daggett-backers in the last poll went 48%-34% for Christie on second choices. A big caveat is that the margins of error are very large in these sub-samples, at ±10.6% this week and ±11.4% two weeks ago, but it is an interesting data point.

From the pollster's analysis: "The Daggett voters seem to be pretty volatile so if they go back to the Corzine camp he'll have a good shot of pulling it out. The campaign that does the better job of turning out its voters will win."

Chris Christie

Poll: Christie Narrowly Ahead In New Jersey

Eric Kleefeld | October 27, 2009, 9:35AM

Chris Christie (R) and Jon Corzine (D)

The new Rasmussen poll of the New Jersey gubernatorial race finds Republican Chris Christie with some possible momentum against Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine and independent Chris Daggett in the home stretch of the campaign.

As was done last week, respondents were initially asked for first preferences between Democrat Jon Corzine, Republican Christ Christie, and independent Chris Daggett. Those who answered Daggett were then given a follow-up question of whether they were sure -- an attempt to measure the usual drop-off that third-party candidates have -- and their possible new votes were then distributed, along with undecided voters who were pushed into supporting a candidate.

The initial preferences were Christie 42%, Corzine 38%, and Daggett 14%. After Daggett-supporters and undecideds were pushed, it became Christie 46%, Corzine 43%, and Daggett 7%. Last week, Corzine had led by 37%-36%-16% on first preferences, and Christie was up by 41%-39%-11% after people were pushed. The margin of error is ±3%.

NJ-GOV

Daggett: Christie Can't Win, It's Either Corzine Or Me

Eric Kleefeld | October 26, 2009, 6:08PM

NJ-GOV candidates Chris Daggett (I) and Chris Christie (R)

Chris Daggett, the independent gubernatorial candidate in New Jersey, is boldly declaring that Republican Chris Christie can't win.

"It's either going to be Jon Corzine or me," Daggett told The Associated Press, adding that Christie's campaign "has gone backward since June."

Christie had previously led Corzine by significant margins in all the polls, but the race has now become neck and neck in most polls. During this whole period, Corzine's support has remained roughly the same, in the high-30's/low-40's range. Christie has been losing support, with Daggett gaining voters from both columns.

Chris Christie

Poll: Corzine Ahead Of Christie By 42%-33%

Eric Kleefeld | October 26, 2009, 10:00AM

Chris Christie (R) and Jon Corzine (D)

A new Suffolk University poll gives Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) a nine-point lead over Republican Chris Christie -- his largest lead in any survey during this whole race.

The numbers: Corzine 42%, Christie 33%, independent Chris Daggett 7%. In this poll, all 12 candidates on the ballot were listed, in addition to the main three, with other independents also garnering a total of 3% support, and 14% undecided. There is no prior Suffolk poll for direct comparison. The margin of error is ±5%.

The pollster's analysis shows that this race has become all about the unpopularity of all the candidates, but that Corzine is now coming out the best: "Thirty-five percent of likely voters said that they would be extremely or very comfortable with Corzine, compared to 20 percent for Christie and 9 percent for Daggett. All candidates struggled with personal popularity, with Corzine viewed favorably by 45 percent and unfavorably by 46 percent. Christie polled 34 percent favorable, 46 percent unfavorable, while Daggett scored a 20 percent favorable and 25 percent unfavorable. All three candidates had higher negatives than positives."

NJ-GOV

Final New Jersey Debate Focuses On Taxes, Corruption

Eric Kleefeld | October 22, 2009, 9:53PM

Chris Christie (R) and Jon Corzine (D)

The three candidates in New Jersey met for their final debate, a radio debate as opposed to TV. The big focus of the night was the state's property taxes, along with discussion of another big issue in New Jersey, public corruption.

Hot-button issues like health care and gay marriage were not to be found. Property taxes are a major funding mechanism for government in New Jersey -- and represent a huge burden on residents, and are thus a major campaign issue. The candidates were all asked how much they personally pay in property taxes. Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine pays about $35,000 or $36,000, Republican nominee Chris Christie pays $38,000, and independent Chris Daggett pays $18,000.

They all went through their proposals about what to do to change this. Corzine discussed his administration's accomplishments in promoting local government consolidations. Christie talked about putting pressure on local government to reduce spending, and to force consolidations by giving grants to towns to explore it -- and if it's found that consolidation would save money, they must either consolidate or pay the state the money back from the study. Daggett called for a hard cap on municipal spending, with very few exceptions, combined with an expanded sales tax base.

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NJ-GOV

Poll: Corzine Leads Christie By 42%-39%

Eric Kleefeld | October 22, 2009, 3:18PM

Chris Christie (R) and Jon Corzine (D)

The new Democracy Corps (D) poll of the New Jersey gubernatorial race finds Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine narrowly leading Republican former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie, by a slim three-point margin.

The numbers: Corzine 42%, Christie 39%, and independent Chris Daggett with 13%. This is essentially unchanged from the last D-Corps survey, which had Corzine up by 41%-38%-14%.

The analysis finds that neither major party candidate enjoys any real popularity with the voters: "Amidst a campaign that has turned almost exclusively negative, both Corzine and Christie remain relatively unpopular with New Jersey voters. Christie is viewed unfavorably by 42 percent of voters and favorably by 35 percent for a net favorability rating of -7 points. Corzine's net favorability rating is nearly identical at -8 points, with 46 percent rating him unfavorably versus 38 percent rating him favorably."

Daggett's favorable-unfavorable rating is 15%-25%.

NJ-GOV

Poll: Corzine Leads Christie By 39%-36%

Eric Kleefeld | October 22, 2009, 9:08AM

Chris Christie (R) and Jon Corzine (D)

The new Rutgers-Eagleton poll of the New Jersey gubernatorial race gives Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine a three-point lead over his Republican opponent Chris Christie -- with a significant number of voters going for independent Chris Daggett.

The numbers: Corzine 39%, Christie 36%, and Daggett 20%, with a ±4% margin of error.

From the pollster's analysis: "Daggett continues to draw fairly evenly from both major party candidates. However, in a close race, it may make a difference that Daggett voters are people who would have been slightly more on Christie's side than on Corzine's in a two-way race. The underlying question is whether current Daggett supporters really will vote for him on Election Day, or whether they will opt for their second choice, one of the major party candidates."

NJ-GOV

Another Poll Shows New Jersey Race Up In The Air

Eric Kleefeld | October 20, 2009, 5:50PM

Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) and Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R)

The new Rasmussen poll of New Jersey finds that the race continues to be a dead heat -- and that a lot could hinge on the potential final movements of Daggett voters.

As was done last week, respondents were initially asked for first preferences between Democrat Jon Corzine, Republican Christ Christie, and independent Chris Daggett. Those who answered Daggett were then given a follow-up question of whether they were sure -- an attempt to measure the usual drop-off that third-party candidates have -- and their possible new votes were then distributed.

The initial preference, provided to me by Scott Rasmussen: Corzine 37%, Christie 36%, Daggett 16%, and 11% undecided, with a ±4% margin of error. After Daggett supporters were re-questioned, and other leaners were pushed, it became Christie 41%, Corzine 39%, Daggett 11%.

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NJ-GOV

Poll: Corzine And Christie Tied At 39% Each

Eric Kleefeld | October 20, 2009, 8:41AM

Chris Christie (R) and Jon Corzine (D)

The new Monmouth poll shows the New Jersey gubernatorial race tied, with Republican Chris Christie having lost the lead he once held over Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine.

The numbers: Christie 39%, Corzine 39%, and independent Chris Daggett 14%, with a ±3.1% margin of error. Three weeks ago, Christie led by 43%-40%-8%, and he was up by 47%-39%-5% two and a half weeks before that.

The pollster's analysis finds Christie losing Democratic support back to Corzine and even some GOP voters to Daggett, while both candidates have lost independent voters to Daggett: "Democrats who flirted with Chris Christie earlier in the year have come back into the fold. It also looks like some GOP voters may have become disenchanted with their white knight. That's not a good sign for the Republican at this late stage of the game."

NJ-GOV

Sparks Fly In New Jersey Debate

Eric Kleefeld | October 16, 2009, 9:52PM

Chris Christie (R) and Jon Corzine (D)

The three candidates for Governor of New Jersey -- Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine, Republican Chris Christie, and independent Chris Daggett -- met for a debate tonight, with a lot of substantive discussion on the issues facing the state. In a race marked by bitter personal attacks, this debate for the most part featured arguments about the issues themselves.

An interesting pattern emerged that when candidates fought each other, in almost all cases it was between Christie and another one of the participants. While Corzine and Daggett stated different positions on various issues, for the most part they didn't take each other on directly. The real target of their attacks was Christie.

The most memorable exchange came when Daggett said to Christie: "I gotta buy you a calculator, Mr. Christie, because your numbers don't add up. They never add up. You have no plan, no plan at all." Daggett then said that he himself has a good plan on taxes and the budget, and he challenges anyone to come up with a better one that has real substance.

When it came time for Christie's turn, he shot back: "I'm more than happy to take Mr. Daggett's calculator. I'd like to give you a dictionary, because only you could take a $4 billion tax increase and call it a tax cut."

When Corzine's turn came again, he chimed in. "Let me agree with Mr. Daggett -- Mr. Christie doesn't seem to get the arithmetic right," said Corzine, citing as one example how Christie said people are leaving the state, when in fact the population is growing. "It's just misleading, talking down the state is not a great idea. In fact, we ought to have a positive view."

Some more highlights, after the jump.

Read more »

NJ-GOV

Polls: Corzine Up In One, Christie Ahead In Another

Eric Kleefeld | October 16, 2009, 9:15AM

Chris Christie (R) and Jon Corzine (D)

A new pair of polls in New Jersey show how much of a toss-up this gubernatorial race has become, with Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine narrowly leading in one and Republican candidate Chris Christie just barely leading in the other.

From the New York Times: Corzine 40%, Christie 37%, and independent Chris Daggett with 14%, with a margin of error of between 4% and 5% for likely voters.

From SurveyUSA: Christie 40%, Corzine 39%, Daggett 18%, with a ±4% margin of error. A week ago, SurveyUSA had Christie up by 43%-40%-14%.

The New York Times poll demonstrates how voters have come to view this race as a choice of the lesser of two evils: "But a majority of voters say they cannot relate personally to either Mr. Christie or Mr. Corzine, and neither man is considered likable: 46 percent of voters view Mr. Corzine unfavorably, 30 percent favorably, and 23 percent have no opinion. For Mr. Christie, 41 percent do not have an opinion, 37 percent view him unfavorably and 19 percent have a favorable opinion of him. Mr. Daggett, who lacks the money to advertise heavily, is unknown to most voters: nearly 8 in 10 have no opinion of him."

NJ-GOV

Poll: Daggett Voters Becoming The Key To New Jersey Election

Eric Kleefeld | October 15, 2009, 12:08PM

Chris Daggett, independent candidate for governor in New Jersey

A new Rasmussen poll of the New Jersey gubernatorial race finds that independent Chris Daggett could be continuing to surge -- but that if his support falls back down, as third-party candidates often do, Republican Chris Christie could hold on to a narrow lead over Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine.

Respondents were asked for initial support of candidates, and it came out as a tie between the top two: Christie 38%, Corzine 38%, Daggett 16%.

However, Daggett supporters were given a follow-up question about whether they might change their minds, and who they might vote for if they do -- similar to the process that Rasmussen normally uses to push people from the undecided column into leaning towards a candidate. The poll then found that 57% of Daggett supporters could change their minds, and this could result in a new number: Christie 45%, Corzine 41%, Daggett 9%.

"The race is a tossup, and the key question will be if Daggett loses support, how much support will he lose, and where will it go," Scott Rasmussen told TPM, also adding: "There is no perfect way to measure this. But this is where the play is."

NJ-GOV

Poll: Christie Ahead By Only One Point

Eric Kleefeld | October 14, 2009, 6:35AM

Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) and Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R)

The new Quinnipiac poll in New Jersey further confirms that this race is going down to the wire, with Republican nominee Chris Christie ahead of Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine by just one point.

The numbers: Christie 41%, Corzine 40%, and independent Chris Daggett with 14%, with a ±2.8% margin of error. Two weeks ago, Christie had a lead of 43%-39%-12%.

The pollster's analysis finds that both candidates have become quite unpopular:

"People obviously are listening to the negative ads from both sides. Both Corzine and Christie get a split, at best, on the 'honesty' question," Carroll said.

"Corzine has failed to control the state budget, Christie ads proclaim. Voters agree. Christie is too vague on what he'd do as Governor, Corzine ads proclaim. Again, voters agree.

"The Corzine team obviously likes the mammogram attack on Christie. They keep running it. But New Jerseyans don't like it. 'Unfair,' they say, almost 2 - 1."

NJ-GOV

Christie: I Feel Better Now Than When I Was Way Ahead

Eric Kleefeld | October 13, 2009, 5:03PM

Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) and Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R)

Speaking to reporters today, Chris Christie dismissed the poll numbers that have shown his once-mighty lead over Jon Corzine -- and said that in fact, he feels better now than he did before.

"I feel better now than over the summer when I had a bigger lead," said Christie. "I knew the governor was going to spend a lot of money going after me, attacking me. And as much as he has, I should be dead by now, but here I am - still with a lead, and I feel better now than I have felt this entire race."

Read more »

NJ-GOV

Poll: Christie's Lead Shrinks To One Point

Eric Kleefeld | October 13, 2009, 11:02AM

Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) and Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R)

The new survey of New Jersey from Public Policy Polling (D) confirms the trend of this gubernatorial race coming down the wire, with Republican Chris Christie ahead of Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine by just one point.

The numbers: Christie 40%, Corzine 39%, and independent Chris Daggett 13%, with a ±4.1% margin of error. A month ago, Christie had a much bigger lead of 44%-35%-13%.

The pollster also asked respondents about an emerging question in this race: Is Corzine attacking Christie for his weight?

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NJ-GOV

Star-Ledger Pulls Out Of Debate After Endorsing Daggett

Eric Kleefeld | October 12, 2009, 1:46PM

Chris Daggett, independent candidate for governor in New Jersey

The endorsement of independent gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett by New Jersey's largest newspaper, the Star-Ledger, has already had one major consequence: The Ledger has pulled out of Friday's upcoming debate, or else violate state law.

The debate is still on through its other partners, including the northern Jersey Record and the Herald News, as well as Fox News. But the Ledger will not be sending their reporter to take part in the panel.

The state election commission's regulations require that officially registered debate sponsors not endorse a candidate, at least until after the debate. "We came to the conclusion that it was probably the best for everyone involved if a replacement were found for us," managing editor Kevin Whitmer told TPM, "that there was something in place that if we endorsed before the debate, that would be in violation."

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NJ-GOV

Christie's Running Mate: 'The Key Issue Is Not Mammograms, It's Taxes, Taxes, Taxes'

Eric Kleefeld | October 9, 2009, 4:13PM

Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) and Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R)

In yet another sign that the Christie campaign is having trouble handling the issue of insurance company coverage of mammograms, Christie's running mate had a somewhat awkward response to the issue: This election isn't about mammograms, it's about taxes.

The candidates for Lt. Governor of New Jersey -- Republican Kim Guadagno, Democrat Loretta Weinberg and independent Frank Esposito -- met for a debate last night. Guadagno, as Christie's running mate, responded to the issue by saying: "The key issue is not mammograms, it's taxes, taxes, taxes."

The problem here is that trying to de-emphasize the issue of mammograms doesn't fully answer the central problem -- that Corzine has been attacking Christie's support of cheaper, mandate-free insurance policies that would not be required by state law to cover certain procedures. Corzine has gained a lot of ground among women voters by arguing that this would leave them vulnerable to having mammogram coverage taken away by insurance companies.

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NJ-GOV

Poll: Christie Ahead By Three Points

Eric Kleefeld | October 8, 2009, 2:35PM

Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) and Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R)

The new SurveyUSA poll of the New Jersey gubernatorial race gives Republican nominee Chris Christie a narrow lead over Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine, confirming the trend of polls that have shown this race becoming very tight.

The numbers: Christie 43%, Corzine 40%, and independent Chris Daggett with 14%, with a ±4% margin of error. There is no prior SurveyUSA poll of this race for direct comparison.

The poll finds a sharp gender gap, with men going for Christie by 48%-35%, plus 16% for Daggett, and women for Corzine by 46%-37%, with 13% for Daggett. Keep in mind that Corzine has been attacking Christie among women voters on the issue of insurance company coverage of mammograms.

NJ-GOV

Poll: Corzine Up By Three In New Jersey

Eric Kleefeld | October 8, 2009, 1:28PM

Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) and Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R)

The new Democracy Corps (D) poll of New Jersey gives Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine a narrow lead over his Republican opponent, former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie.

The numbers: Corzine 41%, Christie 38%, and independent Chris Daggett 14%, with a ±4% margin of error. Two weeks ago, Christie led with 40%, Corzine at 39%, and Daggett with 11%. The result is within the margin of error, but this also means that there have been two separate polls this week showing Corzine with some kind of lead, following a Fairleigh Dickinson poll from two days ago.

The pollster's analysis suggests that Corzine's attacks against Christie over mammogram coverage are working among women voters: "He [Christie] now posts a net favorability rating of -19 with women, down from -7 two weeks ago. Among independent women, the drop is even more pronounced: from -7 two weeks ago to -34 today, with half of independent women giving him an unfavorable rating. This has clearly benefited Corzine in the vote as the governor now leads among women by 14 points (up from 6 points two weeks ago)."

NJ-GOV

Poll: Christie's Lead In New Jersey Shrinks To Three Points

Eric Kleefeld | October 6, 2009, 4:55PM

Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) and Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R)

The new Rasmussen poll confirms that Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) has been catching up with his Republican opponent Chris Christie -- though in this poll, Christie still maintains a narrow but shrinking lead.

The numbers: Christie 47%, Corzine 44%, independent Chris Daggett 6%, with a ±4% margin of error. Two weeks ago, Christie led by 48%-41%. This comes on the heels of a Fairleigh Dickinson poll that had Corzine up by one point, the first survey to show him ahead during the whole general election season.

The Rasmussen poll also shows that this race is in flux, with a third of the electorate either undecided or indicating they could change their mind.

From the pollster's analysis: "Overall, these results suggest that the campaign is following a New Jersey tradition with the Democratic candidate gaining ground over the final months of the campaign. No Republican has won a statewide race in New Jersey since 1997. This year, Corzine is expected to heavily outspend Christie during the final weeks which could be a game-changing factor."

NJ-GOV

Do Daggett's Ballot Problems Mean Trouble For Corzine?

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 6, 2009, 12:09PM

Chris Daggett, independent candidate for governor in New Jersey

By all measures, this is shaping up to be a good week for Jon Corzine. He's up in the polls (albeit very slightly) for the first time all cycle, Chris Cristie's campaign promises are falling flat and the head of the DGA over the weekend that his money's on Corzine taking the win in November.

But a part of any Corzine victory strategy requires independent candidate Chris Daggett to take a big bite out of the moderate and anti-Corzine that might otherwise go to Christie. Some observers say Corzine needs Daggett to pull as much as 10% of voters on Nov. 3 to secure reelection over Christie. New talk about Daggett's location on the ballot does not bode well for Corzine supporters hoping for big (but not too big) Daggett numbers.

Though he's the only one to share a debate stage with Corzine and Christie, Daggett is actually just one of 10 non-major party candidates in the race. Under NJ law, that means for most voters he'll be hard to find on the ballot. State law dictates that major party candidates be guaranteed the first two slots on the ballot, while third party candidates and independents have their ballot placement determined by lot.

The Press Of Atlantic City reports:

In two of the key southern New Jersey counties, Atlantic and Ocean, Daggett received the last-possible placement among the columns. Don't even run your index finger along the same line as Corzine and Christie - Daggett is tucked a row below.

The story is the same across New Jersey. Voters interested in voting against the unpopular Corzine may step into the voting booth to find their only visible option to be Christie. So it could be the law designed to keep major party candidates front and center could end up being the Democrat's undoing.