Steve Israel

Key Dem: Fewer Tea Partiers Will Mean Less Paralyzed Congress Next Year

Sahil Kapur | May 10, 2012, 11:15AM

Expect more compromise and less paralysis in Congress next year, said Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY), the Democrats' point man on House elections this fall.

"Whether or not we take the majority back, there will be more Democrats in the House of Representatives after 2012," Israel said Thursday at a Washington breakfast hosted by the Christian Science Monitor. "And I think that the more extreme ideologues who have been about obstruction and paralysis and recklessness will be gone. Which makes me a little more optimistic that compromises can be made and balanced decisions can be effectuated in the next Congress -- simply because there will be more Democrats and fewer tea partiers or extremist Republicans."

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Medicare

GOP Failing To Find Dem Cover For Privatizing Medicare

Sahil Kapur | April 3, 2012, 6:10AM

Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY)

Republicans have a message on their plan to privatize Medicare: It's bipartisan. Democrats have a counter-message: Hell no, it's not.

As the GOP works to portray Rep. Paul Ryan's blueprint for Medicare as bipartisan, Democrats are working equally hard to keep their fingerprints off it. Dem operatives see the proposal -- which in 10 years would begin phasing out the existing program and replacing it with a subsidized exchange where seniors can shop for plans -- as a huge opportunity in the elections. House Republicans passed the plan last week without a single Democratic vote.

Now, Republicans are pushing to box in Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, as a former supporter of the "premium support" concept.

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House Republicans

It's On: House GOP Preps For Vote On Radical Medicare Overhaul

Sahil Kapur | March 29, 2012, 5:52AM

Lost in the frenzy surrounding the Supreme Court health care arguments this week is an important development on Capitol Hill: House Republicans are poised to vote Thursday to drastically transform Medicare and spark another potential government shutdown battle.

The new budget plan by Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) faces a floor vote Thursday -- it's a tweaked version of last year's blueprint that was relentlessly attacked by Democrats for "ending Medicare as we know it" in order to pay for large tax cuts for high-income earners. This year's blueprint also replaces Medicare with a subsidized insurance exchange, but keeps traditional Medicare alive as a public option among private plans that seniors can buy into.

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Paul Ryan

Are Republicans About To Commit Medicare Suicide?

Brian Beutler | February 7, 2012, 5:40AM

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) speaks during a press conference on the debt ceiling in Washington, D.C. on August 1, 2011

It's shaping up to be spring 2011 redux. Just under a year ago, Republicans -- euphoric after a midterm election landslide, and overzealous in their interpretation of their mandate -- passed a budget that called for phasing out Medicare over the coming years and replacing it with a subsidized private insurance system for newly eligible seniors.

The backlash was ugly. But Republicans seem to have forgotten how poisonous that vote really was, and remains...because they're poised to do it again. This time they're signaling they'll move ahead, with a modified plan -- one that, though less radical, would still fundamentally remake and roll back one of the country's most popular and enduring safety net programs.

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Nancy Pelosi

Pelosi: Occupy Movement Enhances Dems' National Message

Brian Beutler | December 5, 2011, 5:33AM

Despite some unfavorable polling, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi still thinks the Occupy movement has been politically helpful to Democrats.

In an interview with TPM on Friday, she said there's no recent precedent for the sort of election House Democrats are going into. In 1994 and 2010, Congressional Republicans ran against Washington controlled by Democrats. In 2006, Congressional Democrats ran against Republican corruption and President George W. Bush. This time around, President Obama will carry the national message for the party while individual candidates use it as they see fit to win in their districts. That national message, Pelosi said, has much greater salience thanks to the Occupiers.

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Hurricane Irene

Hurricane Eric: Democrats See Opening In Cantor's Disaster Aid Offset Talk

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 2, 2011, 6:26AM

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA)

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor's requirement that new disaster relief spending be funded with spending cuts has left members of his party open to attack, Democrats say, and they don't plan to waste the opportunity.

This week, the DCCC called on 25 East Coast Republican members to either stand with Cantor's call for offset disaster spending or publicly oppose it. In areas still drying out from Hurricane Irene and repairing the damage from the East Coast earthquake that preceded it, Democrats think the suggestion that federal aid should be used as another budget cut bargaining chip will not sit well with voters.

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2012 elections

Dem Video Blasts GOP On...Angry Town Halls (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | September 1, 2011, 11:18AM

Web video from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, "The Heat is on Republicans as Outrage Grows"

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has new web video out, going after the GOP on a topic that might seem oddly familiar to people who remember the last campaign cycle: angry constituents at congressional town halls.

Last cycle, of course, Republicans made hay against the then-Democratic majority, highlighting how Democratic members faced angry town halls mainly on the issue of health care reform. The DCCC's new video shows various local news clips from across the country, all of them of Republicans facing heat on GOP proposals to privatize Medicare and other economic issues.

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DCCC

Democrats Look To Turn Paul Ryan Toxic

Benjy Sarlin | August 8, 2011, 4:29PM

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI)

In a line of attack usually reserved for scandalized politicians, Democratic officials are targeting Republican lawmakers for accepting donations from Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI).

The DCCC are sending out press releases highlighting donations from Ryan's Prosperity PAC to 17 incumbent Republicans who voted for the House Republican budget. The releases include statements going after members for taking a "thank you check."

Democrats have made Ryan's budget, which includes a plan to replace Medicare with a private voucher system, central to their national message in recent months. But the latest effort reflects a broader attempt to turn Ryan himself into a political villain -- the DCCC releases include a poll from June showing him among the least popular Republicans in the country, ahead of only Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich.

Debt Ceiling

Democrats Leverage Debt Ceiling Crisis On The Campaign Trail

Evan McMorris-Santoro | July 23, 2011, 3:29PM

As the debt crisis inches ever closer to default, Democrats are hitting the campaign trail to tie the crisis to the GOP.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is launching robocall attacks on 60 Republicans across the country, promising dire consequences if the debt limit doesn't rise -- and pinning the crisis on the GOP.

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Allyson Schwartz

Top Dem: Maybe Democratic Super PACs Should Disclose Their Donors

Evan McMorris-Santoro | June 23, 2011, 12:01PM

Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D-PA)

Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D-PA), the DCCC official in charge of recruiting new Democrats to run for the House next year, isn't phased by warnings from former Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) that Democrats bellying up to the Citizens United-created money trough next year could spell disaster for the party.

But at a breakfast meeting hosted by The Third Way think tank in Washington this morning, Schwartz suggested Democrats could take advantage of the fundraising afforded them by doing it a little differently.

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Medicare

GOP Freshmen On Medicare Attacks: Let's Let Bygones Be Bygones

Brian Beutler | May 11, 2011, 11:11AM

Freshman members of the 112th Congress

House Republican freshmen admit that their so-called "MediScare" attacks on Democrats helped them win a big majority in 2010. Democrats had voted for the health care law, which included $500 billion in "cuts" to Medicare -- primarily slashing overpayments to private insurers -- and Republican challengers never let them forget it.

Now, they say, it's time to let bygones be bygones.

Nearly a dozen House Republican freshmen held a press conference outside the Capitol Tuesday morning to "wipe the slate clean," and "hit the reset button."

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Medicare

PolitiFact Insists Republicans Don't Want To End Medicare (VIDEO)

Brian Beutler | April 21, 2011, 10:23AM

If Democrats proposed to turn Medicare into a system that only provided free veterinary services to seniors, would Republicans be lying to say Dems wanted to "end Medicare," without including the caveat "as we know it"?

Of course not. But that's more or less the charge PolitiFact is leveling at Democrats over a new DCCC ad (below) which flatly charges Republicans with proposing to "end Medicare." The House GOP budget, which passed with all but two GOP votes over unanimous Democratic opposition, would over time replace the single-payer, government-run Medicare program with a different system that subsidizes private insurance plans for beneficiaries. Those subsidies would work like vouchers -- they would increase in value year-on-year at a much slower pace than the rate of the rise of health care costs, thus leaving seniors exposed to increasing costs as time goes on.

Republicans call this new health insurance system "Medicare." But it's a completely different program from today's Medicare. PolitiFact doesn't see it that way.

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Medicare

Seniors As Strippers: House Dems Target GOP On Medicare Vote (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | April 19, 2011, 11:22AM

Democrats say Republicans showed their true colors when they voted to blow up Medicare as we know it last week. Now, as members return home for the holiday recess, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is making sure people know about the vote, with a new ad campaign that targets 25 members across the country.

The TV ad imagines a future where Medicare recipients are left in the lurch once a proposed $15,000 annual health insurance voucher runs out. It shows seniors trying to make up the lost Medicare cash by mowing laws, selling lemonade and stripping at parties.

"How will you pay?" the spot asks.

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2012

DCCC Outraises NRCC in First Quarter

Benjy Sarlin | April 14, 2011, 11:41AM

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)

House Democrats may be back in the minority, but apparently they haven't lost their fundraising touch. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced today that they had raised $19.6 million for the quarter, outpacing their GOP counterparts who raised $18 million.

The National Republican Congressional Committee still has more cash on hand, however, at $9 million to the Democrats' $4.6 million. They each hold about $8 million in debt.

The NRCC touted their March fundraising numbers as their best ever, while the DCCC sought to portray their strong quarter as a sign the House might again be in play in 2012. A recent polling analysis by Democratic firm Public Policy Polling suggested that Democrats were in a position to potentially threaten the Republican majority given the GOP's dwindling approval ratings.

2012 elections

Democrats Keep The Pressure On Republican Anti-Abortion Foes

Evan McMorris-Santoro | February 24, 2011, 11:34AM

Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle (R-NY)

Steve Israel promised to take on Congressional Republicans over their push to tighten abortion laws. Now, the DCCC chair is making good on that pledge.

With the 2012 elections well over a year away, Democrats are already up with paid advertising aimed at five Republican members of Congress they hope to defeat in 2012. The program is part of a larger targeted web, radio and email ad program taking on 19 Republicans Democrats say are vulnerable next year.

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2012 elections

DCCC Chair: Dems Ready to Capitalize On GOP's Abortion Bills

Evan McMorris-Santoro | February 16, 2011, 3:34PM

Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY)

Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY), the man charged with winning back the House for Democrats, told reporters Wednesday that Republicans have made his job easier thanks to their string of controversial abortion bills.

"They haven't focused on revitalizing jobs," he said at the briefing held at Democratic Party headquarters. "They've focused on redefining rape."

House Republicans were forced to back off from a plan to change the rape exemptions in federal bans on abortion funding to include only "forcible rape" after a flurry of controversy about what exactly the change would mean.

But Israel said the damage was done, and now the GOP will have to suffer the consequences.

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DCCC

DCCC Targets 19 Republicans Over Spending Cuts, Ethics Issues

Brian Beutler | January 31, 2011, 11:45AM

Rep. David Rivera (R-FL)

The DCCC is already targeting 19 Republicans from marginal districts with local radio ads.

For the most part, the ads criticize the members for supporting GOP spending cut proposals. But they're also going after a couple of members -- Reps. David Rivera (R-FL) and Mike Fitzpatrick (R-PA) -- who remain under ethical clouds.

"Did you know Congressman David Rivera is under criminal investigation for receiving secret payments from his mother's company?" says a narrator in the Rivera ad. "Tell Rivera to come clean so he can finally get to work for us."

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Health Care

Dems Press GOPers To Repeal Their Own Benefits Along With Health Care Law

Brian Beutler | January 19, 2011, 5:43PM

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)

Democrats are basically powerless in the House, but they can force Republicans to take uncomfortable votes pretty regularly.

Using a procedural tool called the motion to recommit, Democrats forced Republicans to take a stand on whether or not members of Congress should receive federal health care benefits. The measure would have made repeal of the health care law contingent on more than half of all members of Congress opting out of the Federal Employees Health Benefit Program.

It reads that repeal shall "not take effect unless and until the Director of the Office of Personnel Management certifies to the Congress that a majority of the Members of the House of Representatives and a majority of Members of the Senate have, as of the date that is 30 days after the date of initial passage of this Act in the respective House, voluntarily and permanently withdrawn from any participation, and waived all rights to participate, as such a Member in the federally funded Federal employees health benefits program (FEHBP) under chapter 89 of title 5, United States Code, effective with the first month after the date of execution of such a withdrawal and waiver."

Republicans voted it down: it isn't the most comfortable issue for them.

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DCCC

House Dems Send Steve Israel To DCCC

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 29, 2010, 8:03PM

Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY)

House Democrats have formally appointed Rep. Steve Israel (NY) to head their campaign efforts next year. The move has been expected for weeks and puts Israel -- a one-time Blue Dog -- in charge of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee as well as at the head of rebuilding their shellacked majority in the face of a resurgent GOP.

"Congressman Israel has demonstrated extraordinary capabilities in recruiting candidates, in attracting resources, and in communicating core Democratic values for middle class and working families," Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who will head the House Democrats as Minority Leader in the next Congress, said in a statement. "In his new role as DCCC Chairman, his practical experience in running and winning in difficult districts will provide critical leadership for Democrats to regain the majority in 2012."

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Debbie Wasserman-Schultz

Midterms Leave Top Democratic Surrogate Debbie Wasserman Schultz In The Lurch

Brian Beutler | November 24, 2010, 8:37AM

Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL)

The 2010 midterm elections were kind of a bummer, if you're a Democrat. Among Democrats who survived the bloodbath, it's a really big bummer for Debbie Wasserman Schultz (FL) -- an appropriator and prolific fundraiser whose role in the 2012 cycle is now unclear.

With over 60 seats lost and the party relegated to minority status, the party has fewer perks -- leadership positions, plum committee assignments, etc. -- to offer its most influential members. As you might expect, it's created visible tension within the party. It's also added some bumps to Wasserman Schultz's once-clear path to party leadership.

When the Republicans take over next year, the ratios on House committees will practically flip. For a lot of Democrats -- particularly senior members -- this won't matter much. There's frequently some correspondence between the number of spots the losing party loses on a committee, and the number of members of that committee who are defeated or retire.

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Steve Israel

Blue Dogged: Meet Steve Israel, The Incoming Chair Of The DCCC

Brian Beutler | November 23, 2010, 9:23AM

Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY)

Long Island Democrat Steve Israel, the incoming DCCC chairman isn't a typical Nancy Pelosi ally. Among other things, he's a former Blue Dog who voted for the Iraq war and the 2001 Bush tax cuts. But last week, after urging his fellow Democrats to support Pelosi's continued leadership of their party, Pelosi nominated him to head the election committee over the perceived favorite, Debbie Wasserman-Schultz.

Wasserman-Schultz and Pelosi have clashed in the past, but the former's fundraising acumen is unquestioned and, in a challenging environment for Democrats, she was seen as a natural choice.

But Israel didn't come out of nowhere.

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Chris Van Hollen

Chris Van Hollen Vies For Top Spot On Budget Committee

Brian Beutler | November 9, 2010, 6:33PM

Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD).

A source close to outgoing DCCC chairman Chris Van Hollen confirms that the Maryland Democrat is angling to be the party's top budget guy in the House when they assume the minority in January. He would replace current chairman John Spratt, who was defeated in last week's midterm elections.

Van Hollen is not currently a member of the Budget Committee, but did deal with these issues when he was a member of the Maryland General Assembly. He was given a leadership title at the beginning of the 111th Congress, but will likely be squeezed out when Democrats lose the Speakership.

If he wins, Van Hollen would leapfrog the Budget Committee's Vice Chair Allyson Schwartz (D-PA) for the top slot. As ranking member he'd spar with incoming Budget Chairman Paul Ryan -- a conservative but, like Van Hollen, not known for his pyrotechnics behind the dais.

James Clyburn

Pelosi Quiet As Hoyer And Clyburn Battle It Out For Minority Whip

Brian Beutler | November 8, 2010, 10:44AM

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD), Speaker Of The House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)

Top Democrats in Washington wish their big electoral defeat Tuesday hadn't been followed by a divisive leadership fight in the House. But that's what happened Friday when, minutes after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced that she would run to be the Dems' Minority Leader, her vote-counter James Clyburn announced he would run for Minority Whip, touching off a leadership race between himself and Steny Hoyer.

Over the weekend, both men and their allies worked the phones relentlessly to shore up support. But publicly, the two camps picked very different strategies for managing public expectations of the outcome. Team Hoyer has been working the media, rolling out ever-longer lists of members who've publicly committed to backing their guy.

"Hoyer's going to win," one source close to Hoyer told TPM.

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DCCC

Van Hollen Stepping Down From DCCC

Eric Kleefeld | November 5, 2010, 11:59AM

Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD).

Rep Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), who headed up the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee during this past campaign cycle, has announced that he will not be returning for another two years at the helm.

The Hill reports:

"When it comes to the DCCC chairmanship, I believe in term limits," Van Hollen told liberal radio host Bill Press on Friday. "This will be the end."

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Chris Van Hollen

Van Hollen: Dems Can Still Hold House

Brian Beutler | November 2, 2010, 9:24PM

Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD).

DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen paid a visit to DNC headquarters to tell reporters that despite early losses, he still thinks Democrats can keep the House.

"Those were the [seats] who were expected to be called," he said of the first returns.

When a reporter from a different outlet told him that her network had already called a GOP takeover of the House, a visibly flustered Van Hollen insisted repeatedly "I think that's a mistake."

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Sunday Shows

The Sunday Show Line-Ups

Eric Kleefeld | October 22, 2010, 2:13PM

Marco Rubio, Charlie Crist, and Kendrick Meek at a Florida Senate debate

Here are the line-ups for the Sunday talk shows this weekend:

• ABC, This Week: DNC Chairman Tim Kaine, Retired Army Gen. Hugh Shelton

• CBS, Face The Nation: Karl Rove, DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen (D-MD).

• CNN, State Of The Union: Florida Senate candidates Marco Rubio (R), Kendrick Meek (D), Charlie Crist (I).

• Fox News Sunday: Senate candidate Pat Toomey (R-PA), Senate candidate Joe Manchin (D-WV).

• NBC, Meet The Press: RNC Chairman Michael Steele.

DSCC

Outside Groups Dominate Campaign Ad Spending In 2010 (CHARTS)

Brian Beutler | October 18, 2010, 10:04AM

Karl Rove

Anonymous outside interests have gone from being a relatively minor source of funding for campaign-season television ads to being the dominant player in 2010, according to figures compiled by the Sunlight Foundation.

A new (and effective) Democratic messaging strategy -- criticizing Republicans and their conservative backers for letting outside, anonymously funded groups run ads attacking candidates -- isn't an example of a party desperately looking for a new bogeyman. It's backed up by data, freely available from the Federal Elections Committee.

The sea change is largely the result of the Supreme Court's Citizens United ruling, overturning a ban preventing pressure groups and corporations from running so-called independent expenditure ads for or against a candidate (these are distinct from issue ads, which only mention candidates vis-a-vis their policy positions). As a result of that shift, the official party committees and candidates face direct contribution limits and must disclose their funders. PACs have a bit more leeway -- they still face disclosure rules, but no donation limits and can make unlimited independent expenditures. Groups organized as non-profits, though, are unencumbered: they can take in as much money as they want, without having to disclose any of their donors.

The result has been extraordinary.

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Pete Sessions

Top GOPer Pete Sessions Makes Racially Insensitive Remarks About Dem Incumbents

Brian Beutler | October 7, 2010, 5:14PM

Rep. Pete Sessions (R-TX)

It's true that Democrats are spending ad money in a number districts recently considered safe. But NRCC chairman Pete Sessions dramatized that fact in a peculiar way in an interview with Roll Call today.

Sessions said that it's telling that the DCCC is spending money on "African Americans like Sanford Bishop. And when you have to retreat back to ... your hard base you're having to make tough decisions."

Democrats are seizing on the remark.

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Bush Tax Cuts

Dem Leadership Exposes Rift On Middle Class Tax Cuts

Brian Beutler | September 27, 2010, 12:16PM

House Majority Whip James E. Clyburn (D-SC), House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), President Barack Obama, and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD)

We should know as early as today (or possibly tomorrow) whether House Democrats will do as many predict and kick the fight over middle-class tax cuts past the midterm elections in November.

Many signs point to yes -- the Senate already punted, a number of House Democrats want at least a temporary extension of tax cuts for wealthy Americans, and all of that is reflected in a split within Democratic leadership over what the party should do.

That split was reflected this weekend when, within minutes of each other, two members of the Dems' leadership team -- DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer -- gave opposing answers to a simple question: will Democrats hold this vote before the election.

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Bush Tax Cuts

Van Hollen: We May Well Take Up Tax Cuts Before The Midterm

Brian Beutler | September 26, 2010, 10:52AM

Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD).

Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) Sunday came closer than any member of Democratic leadership thus far to suggesting that Democrats may indeed hold a vote on middle-class tax cuts before the November elections.

"We are absolutely going to get this done before the end of the year," Van Hollen said on Meet the Press. "We may well take it up before the midterms."

Van Hollen, who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, left his party plenty of wiggle room in the event that the House waits until after the election to hold the vote. But he walked further toward suggesting that the vote might come next week than did House Speaker Nancy Pelosi who on Friday told reporters, "We will retain the right to proceed as we choose," Pelosi told reporters at her weekly press conference."

As TPM first reported, if the vote on middle-income cuts goes forward next week, it will likely be done under suspension of the rules, which requires a two-thirds majority for passage.

2010 elections

National Dem Committees Raising More Money Than GOP

Eric Kleefeld | September 20, 2010, 6:57PM

Clockwise: Speaker John Boehner (R-OH), Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), House Minority Leader Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

The national Democratic Congressional campaign arms are headed into the home stretch of the campaign bringing in more money than their GOP counterparts -- numbers that could potentially make the difference in key races.

On the House side, the DCCC out-raised the NRCC in August, by a margin of $8.32 million for the Dems to $6.64 million for House Republicans. The DCCC remains way ahead in cash on hand, with $39 million to the NRCC's $25.6 million.

For the Senate, the DSCC edged the NRSC in August, with $7.42 million for the Dems to $6.05 million for the GOP. However, the NRSC has slightly more money on hand, with $24.5 million against the DSCC's $22.92 million.

Bush Tax Cuts

House And Senate Dems Bicker Over Forcing GOP Hand On Tax Cuts

Brian Beutler | September 14, 2010, 10:49PM

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV)

Are Democrats bickering again over whether the Senate or the House should make the first move on a major agenda item.

Yes they are. Multiple House Democratic leaders tonight were adamant that they'll put Republicans on the spot for demanding tax cuts for the wealthy...but they're arguing amongst themselves over whether the onus should be on the House or the Senate to make the first move.

"I do think it's worth a fight, I do think it's worth a vote," DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen said on MSNBC tonight after a meeting with the Democratic conference. "As to whether we start in the House or the Senate, that's obviously something that we have to figure out."

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2010 elections

TPM's Top 10 House Races To Watch

Christina Bellantoni | September 13, 2010, 8:37AM

Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH)

It might be a painful night for House Democrats on November 2. Most analysts are predicting a Republican takeover of the House, with as many as 80 or so seats in play, and the GOP only needing to win 39 to seize back control. The TPM Poll Average shows voters nationwide prefer generic Congressional Republican candidates over Democrats 47.3%-40.7%.

Many of the Democrats who won in the Obama 2008 tidal wave are the most vulnerable, and the Democrats who captured Bush-won districts in 2006 aren't breathing much easier. But Democrats see glimmers of hope in open seats, and may win some of their own.

TPM chose 10 House races to watch this fall. They will be competitive, likely entertaining, and are bellwethers to help determine whether the nation sees Speaker Pelosi or Speaker Boehner at the dais come January.

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Fundraising

Obama Sends $4.5 Million To Dem Committees

Eric Kleefeld | September 9, 2010, 12:00PM

President Barack Obama

President Obama has spread some more campaign wealth around the Democratic Party -- using $4.5 million that was left over from his mega-successful 2008 campaign operation to infuse the party's national campaign arms.

Politico reports that the money has come from funds that had been set aside for legal expenses to shut down the campaign: "As soon as it was determined that these funds were no longer needed for the shutdown of the campaign, the president directed that $1.5 million be transferred to each of the following committees: DCCC, DSCC and DNC. Obama for America earlier in the cycle had transferred $8 million, which was split between the DCCC and the DSCC."

2010 elections

Rob Miller Ad Hammers Joe Wilson: 'I'll Never Outsource S.C. Jobs' (VIDEO)

Christina Bellantoni | September 3, 2010, 6:00AM

SC-02 Candidate Rob Miller (D)

You can expect to see a lot more ads like this one from Democrats for the next two months. Rob Miller, running against Joe Wilson (R) of "You lie!" fame in South Carolina's 2nd Congressional district, today is going on television with this ad spotlighting voters worried about losing their jobs thanks to companies outsourcing to other countries.

TPM exclusively obtained an early copy of the ad, which is Miller's second of the cycle. Miller, who attracted national attention from eager Democrats after Wilson shouted at President Obama during his address to Congress in fall 2009, isn't hitting that controversy with this spot.

Instead, Miller slams Wilson for supporting the Central American Free Trade Agreement, saying that his rival voted for "an unfair trade deal that sent thousands of South Carolina jobs overseas." Workers from the 2nd district (where unemployment is 11.2 percent) each chime in, telling Wilson: "You lost touch with people here. Congressman Wilson: You ought to be ashamed of yourself."

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