2010 elections

Every Cloud Has A Silver Lining: The GOP House Seats That Could Go Dem Tonight

Eric Kleefeld | November 2, 2010, 9:28AM

Rep. Joseph Cao (R-LA)

So as we stare down the barrel of some big Democratic losses in the House today, let's look at another end of the equation. It's often noted that Republicans need to pick up 39 seats to win a majority, but it is also theoretically possible that they could pick up 39 seats and still not win control. Why? Because there are in fact a very small handful of seats that they hold that the Democrats could nevertheless pickup in even this bad year.

Keep in mind, these wave cycles often have a few seats that swing the other way. Even in 1994, Democrats picked up such seats as Maine-02 and Rhode Island-01. The 2006 midterm year was interesting, with Republican picking up nothing -- not one measly House seat -- but even in 2008 they won a couple seats back, such as Kansas-02 and Texas-22, even as they lost another net 21 seats.

So let's take a quick look at the Republican-held House seats that according to the leading ratings out there -- CQ, Cook Political Report, Rothenberg Political Report, and Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball -- are expected to go to the Dems.

To be honest, there aren't that many of them -- though who knows, there could be some surprises tonight. The criteria here are that the ratings guys all have these seats ranging from toss-up to leaning Dem to Dem favored. It's a short list, but each one of them would move back the goalpost for a Republican House. Then again, if the national GOP wave turns out to be as big as everyone says, it won't be too much of an issue -- though it surely means something to the Dem candidates in these individual districts.

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DE-At Large

PPP Poll: Dems Set To Pick Up Mike Castle's Delaware House Seat, Too

Eric Kleefeld | September 16, 2010, 1:26PM

Candidates for Congress Glen Urquhart (R) and John Carney (D)

New polling numbers of Delaware from Public Policy Polling (D), conducted over this past weekend before Tuesday's primary, show that Democrats are favored to pick up the House seat of Republican Mike Castle, the establishment moderate who lost the Senate primary to Tea Partier Christine O'Donnell. And as a bonus, Democratic former Lt. Gov. John Carney could end up rolling over another Tea Partier who beat the GOP establishment, real estate developer Glen Urquhart.

The numbers: Carney 48%, Urquhart 37%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3.2% margin of error. In the previous PPP numbers from early August, Carney led Urquhart by 48%-30%.

However, this is not a case of the GOP primary voters potentially throwing away a race as they did on the Senate side. Urquhart very narrowly defeated the state party's official choice, philanthropist Michelle Rollins, by a margin of just 552 votes out of about 56,000. But in this poll, Rollins too is trailing Carney by a margin of 47%-37%. In the previous poll, Carney led Rollins by 48%-32%.

"Delaware has really worked out well for Democrats," writes PPP president Dean Debnam. "Christine O'Donnell's primary win has ensured the party will keep its Senate seat and with Mike Castle leaving the House that's the number one opportunity for a pick up on that end."

DE-At Large

Poll: Dem Candidate Ahead For GOP-Held House Seat In Delaware

Eric Kleefeld | December 7, 2009, 11:24AM

House candidate John Carney (D-DE).

The new survey of Delaware by Public Policy Polling (D) finds the Democrats favored to pick up the state's open House seat, with former Lt. Gov. John Carney leading the Republicans candidates by wide margins.

Carney, who narrowly lost the 2008 Democratic primary for governor, leads former state Sen. Charlie Copeland by 44%-32%. Carney also leads businessman Fred Cullis by 47%-24%.

The seat has opened up due to incumbent Republican Mike Castle opting to run for Senate in 2010, seeking Vice President Joe Biden's former Senate seat. While Castle is a strong recruit for the Republicans on the Senate side, their gain could be the House GOP's loss.

"The Delaware House seat is a rare strong pick up opportunity for Democrats in what's shaping up as a Republican year," said PPP president Dean Debnam, in the polling memo. "The lack of a strong Republican bench in the state is going to make it hard to hold onto the seat Mike Castle has held for the last 18 years."

DE-SEN

Poll: Mike Castle, Beau Biden In Dead Heat For Senate Race

Eric Kleefeld | October 15, 2009, 4:53PM

Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE) and state Atty. Gen. Beau Biden (D-DE)

The new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll finds a dead heat in the 2010 Delaware Senate race -- a special election for Vice President Joe Biden's Senate -- between the likely Republican nominee, Rep. Mike Castle, and Joe Biden's son, the likely Dem nominee Beau Biden.

The numbers: Castle 46%, Biden the Younger 45%, within the ±4% margin of error. Castle has officially declared his candidacy, while Biden has said he is strongly considering it.

Other Democrats were also tested against Castle, and they did not do as well: Appointed Sen. Ted Kaufman trails by 51%-37%, former Lt. Gov. John Carney (who is running for Castle's House seat) is behind by 49%-41%, and New Castle County Executive Chris Coons trails by 51%-39%.

The poll also showed Carney leading two Republicans for the House race, though with less than 50% support: He's ahead of former state Sen. Charlie Copeland by 44%-21%, and leads state Rep. Greg Lavelle by 45%-18%.

DE-SEN

Castle's Senate Run Creates House Dem Pickup Opportunity

Eric Kleefeld | October 6, 2009, 12:28PM

Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE)

The news that Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE) will be running for Vice President Joe Biden's former Senate seat in 2010 not only represents a decent pickup opportunity for Senate Republicans -- it has also created a very good shot for the Democrats to pick up the open House seat.

Castle himself was always secure in the House seat for as long as he wanted it, and he won re-election with 61% of the vote in 2008, at the same time as the Obama-Biden ticket carried the state with 65%.

But in terms of Delaware politics overall, this has become a very Democratic state, having voted Dem for president in every election since 1992, and also for Democratic governors in all the elections since then, as well. Democrats already have a candidate in the race, former Lt. Governor John Carney, who narrowly lost the primary for governor last year.

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