Barack Obama

GOP To White House: Call Our Bluff On Debt Limit -- We Dare You

Brian Beutler | May 23, 2012, 3:47PM

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and President Barack Obama

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) is once again insisting that Congress won't raise the debt limit this winter absent dollar-for-dollar spending cuts.

The response from numerous White House officials amounts to calling Boehner's bluff. We're not going to replay last August again, they say, and we don't think you'll shoot the hostage -- the politics, and the economic consequences are just too deadly.

Republicans insist they're not bluffing. It's not just about their desire to tie the debt limit to spending cuts, but that a debt limit can't pass the House absent significant cuts -- the votes won't be there.

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Debt Ceiling

Senior Admin Officials: Debt Limit Brinksmanship Is Political Suicide ... For Republicans

Brian Beutler | May 22, 2012, 1:15PM

President Barack Obama

Ever since House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) signaled a return to debt limit brinksmanship this coming winter, White House officials have been adamant that the administration's not going to countenance a repeat of last August.

"[W]e're not going to recreate the debt ceiling debacle of last August," White House Press Secretary Jay Carney insisted from the podium last week. "It is simply not acceptable to hold the American and global economy hostage to one party's political ideology. It is the responsibility of Congress to ensure that the United States of America pays its bills, that it maintains its creditworthiness, that it fulfills its obligation and maintains the full faith and credit that it has long enjoyed."

At a background briefing with reporters Tuesday, two senior administration officials made a plausible case that the GOP's demands are politically unsustainable, suggesting President Obama can stick to his guns as the debt limit approaches and that Boehner and Republicans will cave.

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John Boehner

Why Republicans Are Flirting With Debt Limit Debacle 2.0

Brian Beutler | May 16, 2012, 4:53AM

House Speaker John Boehner with House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in the foreground.

Whether or not he can make it stick in any meaningful way, House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) revealed on Tuesday that Republicans still have an appetite for debt limit brinksmanship -- even after the last round nearly crippled the economy, and left the GOP's congressional approval ratings in the sewer.

When Republicans went home for recess last August, after placing the country's AAA credit rating at risk, and narrowly avoiding a self-imposed default on the national debt, they caught such an earful from constituents that they spent several weeks toning down their rhetoric and avoiding big public spats with Democrats.

So what gives? Why would Republicans signal to voters that they want to put the country through the same fiasco again -- particularly when the outcome of the presidential election remains in doubt and Boehner's House Republicans are already expected to lose several seats?

There are several plausible, in some ways self-reinforcing, explanations. And they all reflect the degree to which the Republican Party has been radicalized and behaves as if it's in the midst of an insurgency. But they don't change the fact that selling the public -- and more to the point, voters in swing districts -- on the idea of a Christmas-time debt limit fight is going to be deadly politics.

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Debt Ceiling

Is Boehner's Debt Limit Threat All Hot Air?

Brian Beutler | May 15, 2012, 4:00PM

Office of Management and Budget Director Jacob J. Lew, and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) wants to add a plot twist to the post-election lame-duck session of Congress that will be deliberating how to avoid automatic spending cuts and tax increases set to take effect in January 2013. The twist? He wants to use the debt limit as leverage to make sure tax increases aren't part of the equation. His message today to the White House: If you want my cooperation on raising the debt limit, don't even think about raising taxes.

But for Boehner's threat to be feasible, the government would have to run out of borrowing authority in November or December. That seems unlikely.

Treasury officials note -- and Secretary Timothy Geithner made clear Tuesday -- that the administration expects to be able to manage its accounts in such a way that the true deadline for raising the debt limit won't actually come until early next year -- after the fiscal cliff on January 1, and possibly after the new Congress is sworn in. Which means it's unclear if Boehner's threat has any teeth to it.

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John Boehner

Boehner: No Higher Taxes In Lame-Duck Debt Limit Fight

Brian Beutler | May 15, 2012, 2:45PM

In addition to teeing up another debt limit fight for the lame duck session of Congress later this year, by demanding dollar-for-dollar budget cuts in exchange for new borrowing authority, House Speaker John Boehner also insists that regardless of the election outcome, Republicans will reject higher taxes on wealthy Americans in that fight.

And to build leverage for the GOP position, he announced Tuesday that House Republicans will pass legislation before the election to extend the Bush tax cuts indefinitely.

"What also doesn't count as 'cuts and reforms' are tax increases," Boehner will say before the annual Pete Peterson Fiscal Summit in Washington, DC, according to prepared remarks. "Any sudden tax hike would hurt our economy, so this fall - before the election - the House of Representatives will vote to stop the largest tax increase in American history."

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Debt Ceiling

Dems: Boehner Renewed Debt Limit Fight Because He's In Thrall To Far Right

Brian Beutler | May 15, 2012, 12:11PM

Democrats are horrified, but not exactly shocked, that House Speaker John Boehner plans to tee up a new debt limit fight.

In his weekly press briefing with reporters, House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer attributed the development to Boehner's weak grip on his party.

"Let me say that the dollar-for-dollar [requirement] led to the sequester which none of us like," Hoyer said. "So while it sounds good, the execution of that principle does not seem to be very disciplined. We need to have a big, bold, balanced deal. The Speaker, in my view, believes that as well. The Speaker's party does not believe in balance....We don't adopt their priorities."

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Debt Ceiling

Boehner: We'll Do Debt Limit Brinksmanship All Over Again

Brian Beutler | May 15, 2012, 10:40AM

Speaker of the House John Boehner (R-OH)

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner wants Congress to raise the debt limit again later this year "without drama, pain and damage."

House Speaker John Boehner has other ideas.

In remarks at the 2012 Peter G. Peterson Foundation, Boehner will erect the same requirements for raising the debt limit this coming winter that nearly led the country to default on its debt last August.

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Taxes

Top Dem Explains Plan To Break GOP Anti-Tax Absolutism

Brian Beutler | May 8, 2012, 10:37AM

Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD)

Breaking Republicans' anti-tax absolutism is key to understanding just about everything Democrats have been doing for months now, both in Washington and on the campaign trail. It's the strategic underpinning of the Buffett Rule and the surtax on million-dollar earners; it's the purpose of the so-called "sequester" -- the deep cuts to defense and discretionary spending that will kick in next year if Congress doesn't pass a substantial deficit-reduction plan -- in the debt-limit deal, and it explains Democrats' reluctance to unwind the sequester until Republicans agree to significant new revenues.

So far it hasn't worked, and most elected officials don't expect any movement on the issue until after the election.

Even if President Obama wins re-election, though, what's to stop Republicans on Capitol Hill from linking arms and blocking any tax revenues?

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Budget

Dems Sharpen Opposition As GOP Advances Cuts To Poverty Programs

Sahil Kapur | May 8, 2012, 6:05AM

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI)

House Republicans advanced a measure Monday that shifts automatic defense spending cuts the parties agreed to last August as part of a bipartisan debt-limit deal to domestic programs aimed at mitigating poverty and working-class struggles.

In clearing the legislation, the Budget Committee put it on a glide path to passing the full House -- but that's when it falls into limbo. Senate Democratic leadership had a concise message for their GOP colleagues: Dream on.

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Debt

Top Congress Scholar Says Country Could Easily Fall Off Fiscal Cliff In January

Brian Beutler | April 25, 2012, 5:57AM

Protestors demand "Cut Spending Now" near the Capitol building in Washington DC

A renowned congressional analyst thinks there's a good chance that the country could fall off a fiscal cliff on Jan. 1, no matter who wins this November.

At an American Enterprise Institute event on the future of Medicare Tuesday, AEI scholar Norm Ornstein outlined a scenario in which Congress falls on its face this winter, and fails to address the expiring Bush tax cuts and payroll tax holiday, automatic sequestration spending cuts, lapse of federal borrowing authority and other spending and tax provisions set to contract the budget automatically at the end of the year.

"Most of the cognoscenti in Washington say, Of course they'll reach an agreement because they can't not reach an agreement,'" Ornstein said. "Get inside the belly of the beast and you realize these days they can not reach an agreement."

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Joe Manchin

Man On A Wire: Joe Manchin's Two-Step Alienates Dems And Fails To Convince Republicans

Brian Beutler | April 20, 2012, 12:52PM

Updated at 2:05 p.m.

Sen. Joe Manchin's may think running for re-election as a Democrat while remaining uncommitted to President Obama will buy him cover with ... somebody. But it's not with Republicans.

"What a difference one Democratic Senator's upcoming re-election and three years of failed economic policies by the Democrats makes," emails Brian Walsh, communications director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, in a statement. "But no amount of election-year rhetoric from Senator Manchin will cause voters in West Virginia to forget that three years ago he unabashedly supported President Obama, while predicting great things for West Virginia under his Administration. Instead of trying to put distance between he and the President, Senator Manchin should be more focused on a simple, three word message to his constituents - 'I am sorry.'"

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John Boehner

Boehner, Pelosi Spar Over History Of 'Grand Bargain' Fiasco

Sahil Kapur | April 20, 2012, 5:00AM

Nine months after the famed deficit negotiations between President Obama and House Speaker John Boehner collapsed, the House's top Republican and top Democrat spent a full week sparring over what really happened at that critical July 2011 juncture. With a debt-limit driven economic crisis looming, Obama and Boehner neared a "grand bargain" on taxes and spending only to watch it splinter, then break apart completely at the 11th hour.

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Government Shutdown

Obama To GOP: Abide By Debt Limit Deal Or Else Face A Govt Shutdown Right Before The Election

Brian Beutler | April 18, 2012, 4:36PM

President Barack Obama during his 2012 "State of the Union" address

In a major escalation of a slowly building fight over funding the government, the White House has warned House Republicans, in no uncertain terms, that the government will shut down in September if the GOP does not adhere to an agreement they cut with Democrats in August during the standoff over raising the nation's debt limit.

"Until the House of Representatives indicates that it will abide by last summer's agreement, the President will not be able to sign any appropriations bills," writes Jeffrey Zients, acting director of the White House's Office of Management and Budget, in a letter addressed to congressional appropriators Wednesday.

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John Boehner

Quiet Season On Capitol Hill Exposes Boehner's Deep Challenges

Brian Beutler | March 23, 2012, 6:03AM

John Boehner and Eric Cantor

John Boehner's never had strong control over his conference. Since he became House Speaker last January he's needed Democratic help to advance every must-pass bill.

That was true from the first government shutdown battle last spring, through the debt-limit showdown last summer, and into the payroll tax cut fight, which left Republicans in political dark territory from the end of 2011 through February of this year.

But now that the calendar's mostly clear of "must-do" items, a series of smaller imbroglios has exposed the fact that Boehner's members can't unite behind even the simplest, most politically innocuous measures. Now it's reached the point where even Senate Republicans are outwardly admitting that their House counterparts don't have their act together.

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Barack Obama

Boehner Backs Out Of Debt-Limit Deal

Brian Beutler | March 22, 2012, 1:12PM

Rep. John Boehner (R-OH)

House Speaker John Boehner lent his full support Thursday to undoing a key part of the debt-limit deal he struck with President Obama and the rest of the congressional leadership last summer.

Republicans in the House, Boehner confirmed, will advance legislation to replace automatic cuts to the defense budget from taking effect on Jan. 1. Those cuts are part of an enforcement mechanism he and a majority of his members agreed to accept, but that would only be triggered if Congress was unable to pass a significant deficit-reduction bill. They included the defense cuts, intended to force GOP cooperation and domestic-spending cuts, intended to force Democratic cooperation.

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Budget

House GOP Caught In A New Budget Predicament

Sahil Kapur | March 5, 2012, 6:26AM

For most observers, the biggest question about the House Republicans' forthcoming budget is how they'll handle the issue of Medicare. Will they readopt the same phase-out and privatize policy that got them into political trouble last year? Or will they, at least to some extent, scale back their vision?

But the bigger question has nothing to do with Medicare. The bigger question is whether House Republicans can pass a budget at all.

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Debt

White House To GOP: Only One Way Around Defense Cuts -- And You're Not Gonna Like It

Brian Beutler | February 6, 2012, 3:52PM

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH), President Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV).

In light of Congressional Republicans' abandonment of a key part of the debt limit agreement, two senior administration officials briefing reporters at the White House Monday said automatic, across the board cuts to defense programs will happen as scheduled unless Republicans relent on their refusal to raise revenues.

The officials conducted the briefing under the condition that they not be quoted directly, but their position was unambiguous -- the White House will not support any effort to swap out scheduled cuts to defense programs (and other automatic cuts) unless Congress passes a balanced package of deficit reducing legislation of equal or greater measure. That means new tax revenue from wealthy Americans and corporate interests, which Republicans have routinely refused to consider.

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Defense Spending

Bait And Switch: GOP Leaders Renege On Debt Limit Deal Defense Cuts

Brian Beutler | February 3, 2012, 5:57AM

House Speaker John Boehner with House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in the foreground.

Republican leaders in Congress have all but reneged on a key agreement they reached with the White House last summer rather than reconsider their unwavering stance against new tax revenue.

Relations between the Obama administration and the congressional GOP were already just about as bad as can be. But even so, this sets a precedent future Congresses and White Houses will remember when partisan mismatches force them to strike deals and govern.

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Debt Ceiling

Uh-Oh... Looks Like We'll Hit The Debt Limit Again This Year

Brian Beutler | January 31, 2012, 1:09PM

President Barack Obama

President Obama sacrificed an awful lot last year to take the debt limit off the legislative table until his second term, or some lucky Republican's first term. More importantly, he wanted it off the table until after the 2012 elections, to prevent a replay of last year's debt limit fight from playing out in the middle of election season, when the political consequences would be farther-reaching. And by "farther-reaching" we mean the doomsday scenario of legislators succumbing to a collective action problem and allowing the country to default on its debt.

Well, it looks like Obama will probably get his wish, but it will be an awfully close call.

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Defense Spending

Top Defense Dem: GOP Must Blink First To Avoid Pentagon Cuts

Brian Beutler | January 26, 2012, 11:59AM

Despite a brewing panic among Congressional Republicans (and some Democrats) over automatic, across-the-board defense cuts set to kick in on January 1, 2013, the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee says those cuts must stand unless and until Republicans relent on their anti-tax absolutism, and agree on a balanced deficit reduction package that includes higher revenue.

"The purpose of the sequester is to force us to act to avoid the sequester," Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI) told reporters at a Christian Science Monitor roundtable. "It's like a nuclear weapon -- it's totally useless; it can't be used except to accomplish some other goal than its use. It's used to deter."

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Debt Ceiling

House GOP's First Priority: A Meaningless Rebuke Of Obama!

Sahil Kapur | January 18, 2012, 5:27AM

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and Houser Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA)

For their first legislative act of 2012, House Republicans plan on delivering a symbolic rebuke to President Obama on Wednesday for raising the federal debt limit, which the August 2 law permits them to do. The GOP resolution is expected to pass the chamber, but no matter the outcome, it won't threaten the ability of the U.S. government to meet its obligations either at home or abroad.

After a grueling battle last summer, Congress passed with strong bipartisan support a three-stage increase in the federal credit limit totaling $2.4 trillion. The first $400 billion took effect right away; the second $500 billion came a month later, and the final $1.2 trillion was requested by President Obama last week.

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Economy

CHART: How The Debt Limit Fight Hurt The Economy, Delayed Recovery

Brian Beutler | January 10, 2012, 11:36AM

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and Houser Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA)

Last week's surprisingly positive jobs report overshadowed another bit of good news for the economy: last November showed the biggest growth in consumer credit in 10 years. Typically that's a sign that consumer confidence is up, banks are willing to lend, and demand is on the rise.

If you look back at recent monthly data, though, you'll see that this particular green shoot should have poked through the ground months ago, but was stymied by the GOP's debt ceiling hostage drama.

Take a look at the evidence:

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Debt Ceiling

White House Avoids Fight With GOP Over Debt Limit Hike

Brian Beutler | December 30, 2011, 1:28PM

President Barack Obama

Remember how the Obama administration planned to alert Congress of its intent to raise the debt limit by today? Well, that's getting kicked back a few days.

An aide to House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) says the White House has assured Republicans they will not issue the debt limit request this week, heading off a confrontation between the administration and the GOP over Congress' power under the debt limit law to block the increased borrowing authority.

Under the terms of the August debt limit agreement, the administration was given the right to raise the debt limit by $2.1 trillion in three tranches, nearly unilaterally. The catch was that Republicans reserved the right for the House and Senate, within a narrow time frame, to block the increase. This caveat was largely symbolic. Democrats control the Senate and wouldn't undermine President Obama by triggering another debt limit crisis -- and even if they did, Obama would reserve the right to veto the so-called "resolution of disapproval." But it's a ready-made talking point for the GOP.

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2012

Why The Policy Battles Of 2011 Won't Be Settled Until After The 2012 Elections

Brian Beutler | December 29, 2011, 2:25PM

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and President Barack Obama

When President Obama and the GOP's primary contenders talk up the 2012 election as a choice for voters between two visions for the country's future, it's only about half hyperbole.

We'll see a prelude of this fact in the months between now and November both on the campaign trail and on Capitol Hill as politicians club each other with their past votes and statements on taxes, Medicare, Social Security, and other potent issues. But it's not just rhetoric.

To an unappreciated extent, the legislative whipsawing in 2011 has set the country and the parties up for a major reckoning about the role and size of government at the end of next year. And the outcome of the election will help determine which side of the argument wins.

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Government Shutdown

The GOP's Year Of Living Dangerously: What Did Its Hardline Strategy Produce?

Brian Beutler | December 28, 2011, 5:33AM

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and Houser Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA)

When the House GOP's enormous freshman class arrived on Capitol Hill in January, it wasn't uncommon to hear them sound off on the mistakes their predecessors made in 1995. Despite having shut down the government -- twice! -- House Republicans under Newt Gingrich had caved too easily, didn't push hard enough, didn't embody the true spirit of conservatism.

But the new House leadership wasn't so sanguine. Many had lived through the Gingrich revolution and its aftermath. Others had been around long enough to hear tales of it. And so they mapped out a strategy specifically designed to avoid what they believe were the party's '90s-era mistakes.

In other words, the two factions -- the newly energized backbenchers and the veteran leadership -- were pulling each other in opposite directions. The tug of war left the House GOP's strategic center of gravity stuck in an unstable position. The party was committed to fighting as hard as possible, but stopping short of its most conservative members' slash and burn instincts.

The 2011 version of the House GOP, in not always easy coordination with Senate Republicans, would approve must-pass bills, but only after dragging negotiations down to the wire and extracting as many concessions as possible from Senate Dems and the White House each time. We saw that strategy play out over and over again this year, with mixed results for both parties and largely poor results for the country at large.

Here's a quick lookback at a year of living dangerously -- and the series of recurring crises that it produced.

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Debt Ceiling

Debt Limit Hike Causes Behind The Scenes Commotion On Capitol Hill

Brian Beutler | December 27, 2011, 3:40PM

President Barack Obama

We're trying to sniff out exactly how this happened and what's being done to sort it out. But the Obama administration's announcement that it will certify this week its intent to raise the debt limit didn't sit well on Capitol Hill.

The key issue is the 15-day deadline Congress has to vote on a resolution of disapproval of the President's request to raise the debt ceiling. The timing of the administration's planned certification implies that the 15 days would be up before Congress returns in January from its holiday recess. Whether this was an accident or not, we're told that the calendar issue created a behind-the-scenes mess -- with Republicans threatening to return early from recess -- and that the administration is trying to figure out a way to keep it from spilling out into the public.

I've reached out to the administration for further guidance on both questions. It's still unclear whether this was a hardball political move, a dumb mistake, or just a misunderstanding -- or what, if anything, can be done to avoid a public clash with the GOP over the timing.

Debt Ceiling

Is The White House Jamming Republicans Over The Debt Ceiling?

Brian Beutler | December 27, 2011, 1:00PM

President Barack Obama and Senior Adviser David Axelrod

Is the White House taking advantage of the holiday recess to thumb its nose at Congressional Republicans over the nation's debt limit?

That's one interpretation of an announcement Treasury Department officials made today, which sets in motion an automatic increase in borrowing authority while Congress is out of session.

All of this dates back to the destructive summer fight over whether, by how much, and under what conditions to raise the national debt ceiling. Back then, the White House sought over $2 trillion in new borrowing authority -- enough to assure the country avoided another debt limit fight in the middle of election season, when members of Congress might be even more willing to put the country's creditworthiness at risk for short-term political gain.

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Payroll Tax Cut

Standoff: A Guide To The Ongoing Fight Over The Payroll Tax Cut

Brian Beutler | December 19, 2011, 1:25PM

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and President Barack Obama

At a Capitol press conference Monday morning, House Speaker John Boehner told reporters he expects his members will kill the bipartisan, Senate-passed, two-month payroll tax cut bill. Instead he said Republicans will insist that Senate Democrats return to Washington and hash out the differences between that package, and the partisan one-year bill the House GOP passed a week ago.

That's setting up a new round in the ongoing fight over how to prevent that tax cut -- and other expiring policies like emergency unemployment benefits, and reimbursement rates for Medicare physicians -- from expiring.

Where we go from here depends on Boehner making good on his threat. To that end House and Senate Democrats, along with key Senate Republicans -- who voted for the compromise measure, and whom Boehner is hanging out to dry -- are pressing the House GOP to follow through on the deal.

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Debt ceiling

OLC Gave Guidance To Obama On 14th Amendment During Debt Ceiling Showdown

Ryan J. Reilly | November 29, 2011, 11:00AM

President Barack Obama

The Office of Legal Counsel advised President Barack Obama on whether he could ignore Congress and raise the debt ceiling himself under the 14th Amendment. We just don't know what they told him.

TPM filed a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request for any final memo that OLC issued on whether Obama -- as progressives had wanted -- could continue to pay government obligations if Congress had refused to raise the statutory debt limit.

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Super Committee

Grover Norquist And The Super Committee -- Who's Really In Charge?

Brian Beutler | November 15, 2011, 4:52PM

Grover Norquist

About a week ago, Republicans on the Super Committee offered Democrats a plan they themselves claimed would raise new tax revenues. Setting aside specifics, Democrats treated it as a crack in the dam -- the first indication the GOP's alliance with anti-tax activists was starting to crumble.

Democrats ultimately rejected it. But so too did Grover Norquist, which suggests it really did violate his pledge (which most Republicans have taken) never to raise effective tax rates. Fast forward to Monday, Norquist told The Hill, "I've talked to the House leadership and the Senate leadership. They're not going to be passing any tax increases.... If Republicans raise taxes now, they don't win the Senate, and if Republicans raise taxes now they might not keep the House."

Logically, this means one of four things:

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Balanced Budget Amendment

Despite Packed Agenda, Congress Returns To Radical Balanced Budget Amendment

Brian Beutler | November 14, 2011, 6:01AM

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and Houser Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA)

Congress is busy. It has to extend federal funding for all federal agencies before November 18, or else the government will shut down, and the deficit Super Committee has to recommend a big package of budget cuts to the House and Senate by November 23, or set in motion dramatic automatic spending cuts to defense programs and Medicare providers. But it's still suffering a hangover from the debt limit fight. And so this week House GOP leaders will fulfill one of the terms of the debt limit law, and appease some conservatives, by holding a vote on a Constitutional Balanced Budget Amendment.

There's a bit of a strife among Republicans -- and even among some Democrats -- over the details of such an amendment. But almost any version would constitute a radical policy shift for the country, and threaten key safety net programs as the country ages and the cost of health care soars. It would lead to dramatic swings in U.S. fiscal policy, and at a time of high unemployment, would cost the economy dearly.

Don't believe me, here's what analysts at Macroeconomic Advisers said about it.

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Super Committee

Why The Super Committee Is Heading For Super Catastrophe

Brian Beutler | November 8, 2011, 5:48AM

As of Tuesday morning, betting on the Super Committee to succeed would be playing the odds.

A key member of the Senate Democratic leadership team has openly predicted the panel will gridlock and fail, and placed the blame squarely on Republicans.

As GOP committee members met privately, Maryland Rep. Chris Van Hollen -- a Democrat on the panel -- told Bloomberg, "You need to close some of these tax loopholes and you need to generate additional revenue. And so that balance is going to be important. We saw the dueling letters just last week. We had a bipartisan group in the House that said, 'Look, everything is on the table including revenues - tax revenues.' And within 24 hours you had 33 [Republican] Senators say, 'no new net tax revenues.'"

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Super Committee

CHART OF THE DAY: The GOP's Miniscule Super Committee Tax Offer

Brian Beutler | November 2, 2011, 9:51AM

With perhaps a week before the deficit Super Committee has to submit its proposals to Congressional scorekeepers in order to pass a plan by its late-November deadline, members remain far apart -- and the GOP's refusal to accept new tax revenues is at the heart of the matter.

Republicans would dispute this -- they claim they've been willing to entertain hundreds of billions in new receipts for the government and Democrats aren't serious about truly cutting entitlements programs. But pair the details of their two competing offers -- both of which were leaked to the press in recent days -- and the true source of gridlock becomes completely clear.

The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities -- no fan of the Democrats' own plan -- paired the numbers properly. CBPP noted that, contrary to standard budgeting, Republicans counted proposed fees, like increases in Medicare premiums, as "revenues," even though such cost shifting isn't a tax change, and is typically considered spending reduction. CBPP also completely hived off $200 billion Republicans claimed would result from the secondary economic effects of their plan, since there's little evidence to back up such "dynamic scoring."

The problem speaks for itself.

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Ben Bernanke

Congressional Dysfunction Begins To Spook Old Pros

Brian Beutler | October 10, 2011, 5:05AM

U.S. Capitol building

Congress has always been Washington's whipping boy, particularly near election time. The antics get sillier, the pace shifts from glacial to gridlock, and the frustrated public gets daily reminders that lawmakers are often too mired in politics to function in the national interest.

That's not news.

What is news is that this time it's starting to scare the pros.

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Super Committee

Super Committee Dems Avoid Trap That Skewed Debt Limit Fight

Brian Beutler | September 28, 2011, 2:41PM

'Super Committee' members Sen. Patt Murray (D-WA) and Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), September 7, 2011.

Democrats on the new deficit Super Committee are determined to be better negotiators than their predecessors in earlier deficit discussions leading up to the debt limit fight.

According to aides with knowledge of the discussions, they're trying to keep the panel's early focus on revenues, to avoid falling into a familiar trap of agreeing to a bunch of spending cuts only to have Republicans freeze up when they try to change the conversation to taxes.

A bit of background is appropriate here.

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Jobs

How Obama's Jobs Plan Could Trigger Another Debt Limit Fight Before Election Day

Brian Beutler | September 19, 2011, 6:15AM

President Barack Obama and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner

If President Obama manages to get his entire jobs plan passed -- a big if, of course -- it will quicken the pace at which the federal government is burning through its new borrowing authority and could set up another debt limit battle with Republicans before Election Day 2012.

There are several variables at play, and another debt limit fight before the election wouldn't be a sure thing. But it's not out of the question, especially if economic growth between now and then is weaker than predicted.

A slower-than-expected economy -- or a double dip recession -- combined with the jobs bill's $447 billion price tag, means the federal government could run out of borrowing authority right about October 2012, according to one worst-case-scenario estimate. The deal to raise the debt limit last month was designed to give the government enough cushion to make it past the election before the parties would have to square off again. But that was before Obama introduced his new jobs plan, and before revised economic forecasts revealed the economy's in worse shape than economists believed earlier this year.

Here are the variables to watch that could come together to create an exquisitely timed political crisis:

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Congress

Outrage Index: Near Majority Blames GOP For Frustration With Washington

Kyle Leighton | September 15, 2011, 10:00AM

House Speaker John Boehner with House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in the foreground.

It seems that the combination of brinkmanship and lukewarm reception to most anything President Obama proposes has caught up with Republicans in Congress.

The debt fight caused Washington's approval ratings to drop to new lows, but new data from a Bloomberg national poll shows that it hit the Congressional GOP the strongest: of the Americans who said they were frustrated with Washington, 45 percent said it was because of the GOP.

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Government Shutdown

How Congress Could End Up In A Government Shutdown Fight After All

Brian Beutler | September 13, 2011, 9:17AM

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH)

Could there be a government shutdown fight in the coming weeks despite the fact that Republicans have agreed with Democrats on a funding figure for the coming fiscal year, and GOP leaders say they've lost the appetite for another round of brinksmanship?

Yes.

Read more »

Super Committee

Over GOP Objections, Budget Hawks Say Super Committee Should 'Go Big'

Brian Beutler | September 13, 2011, 5:57AM

President Barack Obama President, with Erskine Bowles (left) and Sen. Alan Simpson (right.)

Democratic and Republican members of the joint deficit Super Committee will meet Tuesday for their first substantive meeting, which will examine the history and driver of the country's debt, and the risk it poses in the future.

It will be the committee's second meeting overall and its first since President Obama pushed the panel in his joint address to Congress to find significantly more than the $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction they're required to find, to finance a near-term jobs bill.

That pressure has some Republicans saying that Obama's needlessly complicated the committee's task -- finding $1.2 trillion in cuts, revenues and savings is hard enough! -- and members should keep their eyes on the more modest goal spelled out in the debt limit law.

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Eric Cantor

Cantor Admits Shutdown Fights Harm Economy

Brian Beutler | September 12, 2011, 1:56PM

House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA) with GOP leaders

Here's a rare admission from a top Republican, given how things have unfolded on Capitol Hill all year. It comes from House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA), in response to a question about whether Republicans will push for deeper spending cuts later this month when Congress has to extend funding for federal programs.

"I think the risk of bringing back brinkmanship or another potential shutdown is not something right now that we need, is not something that would be helpful to create jobs and regain confidence, which is why I've taken the position that I have," Cantor said.

Here's a brief primer on his position. It's worth noting that the country's economic situation was similarly poor in April and July when Republicans forced long fights over, respectively, a six month government funding bill and raising the debt limit.