Barack Obama

An Obama Spending Spree? Hardly (CHART)

Sahil Kapur | May 23, 2012, 6:03AM

A dominant theme of the national political discourse has been the crushing spending spree the U.S. has ostensibly embarked on during the Obama presidency. That argument, ignited by Republicans and picked up by many elite opinion makers, has infused the national dialogue and shaped the public debate in nearly every major budget battle of the last thee years.

But the numbers tell a different story.

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Debt Ceiling

Senior Admin Officials: Debt Limit Brinksmanship Is Political Suicide ... For Republicans

Brian Beutler | May 22, 2012, 1:15PM

President Barack Obama

Ever since House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) signaled a return to debt limit brinksmanship this coming winter, White House officials have been adamant that the administration's not going to countenance a repeat of last August.

"[W]e're not going to recreate the debt ceiling debacle of last August," White House Press Secretary Jay Carney insisted from the podium last week. "It is simply not acceptable to hold the American and global economy hostage to one party's political ideology. It is the responsibility of Congress to ensure that the United States of America pays its bills, that it maintains its creditworthiness, that it fulfills its obligation and maintains the full faith and credit that it has long enjoyed."

At a background briefing with reporters Tuesday, two senior administration officials made a plausible case that the GOP's demands are politically unsustainable, suggesting President Obama can stick to his guns as the debt limit approaches and that Boehner and Republicans will cave.

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Debt Ceiling

Is Boehner's Debt Limit Threat All Hot Air?

Brian Beutler | May 15, 2012, 4:00PM

Office of Management and Budget Director Jacob J. Lew, and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) wants to add a plot twist to the post-election lame-duck session of Congress that will be deliberating how to avoid automatic spending cuts and tax increases set to take effect in January 2013. The twist? He wants to use the debt limit as leverage to make sure tax increases aren't part of the equation. His message today to the White House: If you want my cooperation on raising the debt limit, don't even think about raising taxes.

But for Boehner's threat to be feasible, the government would have to run out of borrowing authority in November or December. That seems unlikely.

Treasury officials note -- and Secretary Timothy Geithner made clear Tuesday -- that the administration expects to be able to manage its accounts in such a way that the true deadline for raising the debt limit won't actually come until early next year -- after the fiscal cliff on January 1, and possibly after the new Congress is sworn in. Which means it's unclear if Boehner's threat has any teeth to it.

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Debt Ceiling

Dems: Boehner Renewed Debt Limit Fight Because He's In Thrall To Far Right

Brian Beutler | May 15, 2012, 12:11PM

Democrats are horrified, but not exactly shocked, that House Speaker John Boehner plans to tee up a new debt limit fight.

In his weekly press briefing with reporters, House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer attributed the development to Boehner's weak grip on his party.

"Let me say that the dollar-for-dollar [requirement] led to the sequester which none of us like," Hoyer said. "So while it sounds good, the execution of that principle does not seem to be very disciplined. We need to have a big, bold, balanced deal. The Speaker, in my view, believes that as well. The Speaker's party does not believe in balance....We don't adopt their priorities."

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Debt Ceiling

Boehner: We'll Do Debt Limit Brinksmanship All Over Again

Brian Beutler | May 15, 2012, 10:40AM

Speaker of the House John Boehner (R-OH)

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner wants Congress to raise the debt limit again later this year "without drama, pain and damage."

House Speaker John Boehner has other ideas.

In remarks at the 2012 Peter G. Peterson Foundation, Boehner will erect the same requirements for raising the debt limit this coming winter that nearly led the country to default on its debt last August.

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Deficit

Who Really Caused The Deficit? (CHART)

Sahil Kapur | May 15, 2012, 5:17AM

President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney

This week Republicans will attempt to move the national political conversation back to a familiar theme with a series of attacks on President Obama over the national debt. The GOP released a web video Monday bashing his "broken promises" on the deficit and previewed a major speech Tuesday by likely presidential nominee Mitt Romney on the issue.

Divorced from context, the numbers are uncomfortable for the President and are ready-made for pointed partisan attacks. Under Obama's watch the national debt has risen from roughly $10 trillion to $15 trillion, a record high. But to what extent are his decisions while in office to blame? The answer: very little. The vast bulk of the debt is the result of policies enacted during the Bush administration coupled with automatic increases in federal spending and decreases in tax revenue triggered by the economic downturn.

Those are economic facts of life known to experts but that often gets lost in the political debate (and which Obama's opponents are willing to obscure). So with the GOP's push to return the deficit to the center of the political conversation, here's quick reminder of the basic facts that you may have forgotten.

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Debt

Top Congress Scholar Says Country Could Easily Fall Off Fiscal Cliff In January

Brian Beutler | April 25, 2012, 5:57AM

Protestors demand "Cut Spending Now" near the Capitol building in Washington DC

A renowned congressional analyst thinks there's a good chance that the country could fall off a fiscal cliff on Jan. 1, no matter who wins this November.

At an American Enterprise Institute event on the future of Medicare Tuesday, AEI scholar Norm Ornstein outlined a scenario in which Congress falls on its face this winter, and fails to address the expiring Bush tax cuts and payroll tax holiday, automatic sequestration spending cuts, lapse of federal borrowing authority and other spending and tax provisions set to contract the budget automatically at the end of the year.

"Most of the cognoscenti in Washington say, Of course they'll reach an agreement because they can't not reach an agreement,'" Ornstein said. "Get inside the belly of the beast and you realize these days they can not reach an agreement."

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John Boehner

Boehner, Pelosi Spar Over History Of 'Grand Bargain' Fiasco

Sahil Kapur | April 20, 2012, 5:00AM

Nine months after the famed deficit negotiations between President Obama and House Speaker John Boehner collapsed, the House's top Republican and top Democrat spent a full week sparring over what really happened at that critical July 2011 juncture. With a debt-limit driven economic crisis looming, Obama and Boehner neared a "grand bargain" on taxes and spending only to watch it splinter, then break apart completely at the 11th hour.

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Economy

Romney Budget Attack Based Flawed View Of The Economy

Brian Beutler | April 17, 2012, 1:45PM

In a new effort to turn the country's debt and deficits into political problems for President Obama, Mitt Romney's campaign is promoting a new infographic that draws a comparison between federal and household budgets.

It may be a political winner, but it's a deeply flawed way to look at budgeting, as even many conservative budget experts admit. And it rests on the false implication that President Obama has no intention or desire to rein in deficits in the coming years.

But it breaks down further when you examine the analogy more closely -- and, as Dean Baker, co-founder of the liberal-leaning Center for Economic and Policy Research says, it suggest either that Romney's misleading voters about his policy views, or that he has a "loony" view of the economy.

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White House

White House Disputes Report That Boehner-Obama Debt Deal Still On Table

Brian Beutler | March 20, 2012, 4:30PM

A senior White House official is disputing a key, but vague, detail in a weekend Washington Post article, which provided a number of new details about the final days of President Obama's unsuccessful attempt last summer to strike a grand bargain to stabilize the national debt with House Speaker John Boehner.

The two principals were nearing a framework that would have included higher tax revenues, unpopular cuts to Medicare and other spending reductions when the talks failed. That resulted in the debt limit deal and the ongoing fight between the parties over the federal safety net and taxes on the wealthy.

One of the Post's new details alarmed progressives.

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Budget

House GOP Caught In A New Budget Predicament

Sahil Kapur | March 5, 2012, 6:26AM

For most observers, the biggest question about the House Republicans' forthcoming budget is how they'll handle the issue of Medicare. Will they readopt the same phase-out and privatize policy that got them into political trouble last year? Or will they, at least to some extent, scale back their vision?

But the bigger question has nothing to do with Medicare. The bigger question is whether House Republicans can pass a budget at all.

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Mitt Romney

New Romney Plan Lowers Taxes Further On Rich, Raises On Poor (CHART)

Brian Beutler | March 1, 2012, 5:14PM

Mitt Romney

When Mitt Romney unveiled his revised tax and debt plan last week, his camp sold it as a bid to preserve fairness to the middle class.

He proposed an across the board 20 percent cut to everybody's current rates, and to make up the lost revenue by limiting deductions, credits and other tax benefits for wealthy Americans. But he declined to specify exactly how he'd broaden the tax base. And a new analysis by the Tax Policy Center shows that without those details, his proposed cuts would actually be more regressive than his first plan.

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Steny Hoyer

Progressive Advocacy Group Targets Hoyer Over Potential Entitlement Cuts

Brian Beutler | March 1, 2012, 1:38PM

House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD) And Rep. John Conyers (D-MI)

The online, progressive advocacy group CREDO Action is targeting a top House Democrat and a leading advocate of far-reaching deficit reduction legislation, including both higher taxes and cuts to popular support programs like Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.

In a Monday speech, House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer revealed that he's working with a bipartisan coalition of House and Senate members to fashion a "grand bargain" on deficits, in the hope of addressing the issue -- and possibly even passing legislation -- before the November elections.

Hoyer's made no secret of the fact that he wants to see significant long-term deficit reduction, in programs that put everything, including entitlements and taxes, on the table. Progressives worry that such entitlement cuts will undermine the integrity of the programs and are warning Hoyer and Democratic members to tread cautiously. The subtext here, and the source of CREDO's leverage, is that Hoyer may -- a big may -- need progressive help in a future leadership fight, if Democrats take the majority, or Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi retires, or another shakeup occurs in the Democratic ranks.

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Mitt Romney

D'oh! Debt Hawks Fear Most GOP Tax Plans Will Increase Deficit

Brian Beutler | February 23, 2012, 1:48PM

A key test for the political establishment and the media this campaign cycle will be whether they accurately explain the Presidential candidates' budget plans to voters, or whether they allow the candidates to spin their way out of the severe implications of their own proposals. The election will hinge to a large extent on the two parties' visions for the role of the federal government and how to pay for it, and keeping the taxing and spending implication of those visions clear is the key to helping voters make informed decisions at the polls.

An event hosted Thursday morning by the fiscal discipline hawks at the Center for a Responsible Federal Budget offered this corner of the establishment an early critique of the GOP candidates' tax and spending plans -- all of which drew mixed reviews or worse.

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Debt

White House To GOP: Only One Way Around Defense Cuts -- And You're Not Gonna Like It

Brian Beutler | February 6, 2012, 3:52PM

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH), President Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV).

In light of Congressional Republicans' abandonment of a key part of the debt limit agreement, two senior administration officials briefing reporters at the White House Monday said automatic, across the board cuts to defense programs will happen as scheduled unless Republicans relent on their refusal to raise revenues.

The officials conducted the briefing under the condition that they not be quoted directly, but their position was unambiguous -- the White House will not support any effort to swap out scheduled cuts to defense programs (and other automatic cuts) unless Congress passes a balanced package of deficit reducing legislation of equal or greater measure. That means new tax revenue from wealthy Americans and corporate interests, which Republicans have routinely refused to consider.

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Defense Spending

Bait And Switch: GOP Leaders Renege On Debt Limit Deal Defense Cuts

Brian Beutler | February 3, 2012, 5:57AM

House Speaker John Boehner with House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in the foreground.

Republican leaders in Congress have all but reneged on a key agreement they reached with the White House last summer rather than reconsider their unwavering stance against new tax revenue.

Relations between the Obama administration and the congressional GOP were already just about as bad as can be. But even so, this sets a precedent future Congresses and White Houses will remember when partisan mismatches force them to strike deals and govern.

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Debt Ceiling

Uh-Oh... Looks Like We'll Hit The Debt Limit Again This Year

Brian Beutler | January 31, 2012, 1:09PM

President Barack Obama

President Obama sacrificed an awful lot last year to take the debt limit off the legislative table until his second term, or some lucky Republican's first term. More importantly, he wanted it off the table until after the 2012 elections, to prevent a replay of last year's debt limit fight from playing out in the middle of election season, when the political consequences would be farther-reaching. And by "farther-reaching" we mean the doomsday scenario of legislators succumbing to a collective action problem and allowing the country to default on its debt.

Well, it looks like Obama will probably get his wish, but it will be an awfully close call.

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Defense Spending

Top Defense Dem: GOP Must Blink First To Avoid Pentagon Cuts

Brian Beutler | January 26, 2012, 11:59AM

Despite a brewing panic among Congressional Republicans (and some Democrats) over automatic, across-the-board defense cuts set to kick in on January 1, 2013, the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee says those cuts must stand unless and until Republicans relent on their anti-tax absolutism, and agree on a balanced deficit reduction package that includes higher revenue.

"The purpose of the sequester is to force us to act to avoid the sequester," Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI) told reporters at a Christian Science Monitor roundtable. "It's like a nuclear weapon -- it's totally useless; it can't be used except to accomplish some other goal than its use. It's used to deter."

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Budget

CHART: A Hidden Source Of Budget Deficits

Brian Beutler | January 12, 2012, 12:26PM

Dmitry Rukhlenko / Shutterstock

Before Warren Buffett and Mitt Romney enter a bidding war over who will volunteer more of their millions to reduce the deficit, the government could recoup many billions of dollars every year if Congress just made it easier for the Treasury to collect what it's already owed by law.

Meet the tax gap -- the difference between taxes owed and taxes paid.

Via the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, the IRS has found that in 2006, taxpayers shorted the government by about $385 billion -- and an additional $65 billion was paid late. Back then, the tax gap was bigger than the annual budget deficit. With the economy still suffering, that's likely not true today. But closing it even partially would take substantial pressure off of strained federal programs, which have been under constant attack by the GOP for over a year.

As you can see, the tax gap is on the order of the government's biggest expenditure categories, and dwarfs the voluntary contributions Republicans suggest wealthy liberals like Buffett should volunteer to the Treasury.

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Economy

CHART: How The Debt Limit Fight Hurt The Economy, Delayed Recovery

Brian Beutler | January 10, 2012, 11:36AM

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and Houser Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA)

Last week's surprisingly positive jobs report overshadowed another bit of good news for the economy: last November showed the biggest growth in consumer credit in 10 years. Typically that's a sign that consumer confidence is up, banks are willing to lend, and demand is on the rise.

If you look back at recent monthly data, though, you'll see that this particular green shoot should have poked through the ground months ago, but was stymied by the GOP's debt ceiling hostage drama.

Take a look at the evidence:

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Debt Ceiling

White House Avoids Fight With GOP Over Debt Limit Hike

Brian Beutler | December 30, 2011, 1:28PM

President Barack Obama

Remember how the Obama administration planned to alert Congress of its intent to raise the debt limit by today? Well, that's getting kicked back a few days.

An aide to House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) says the White House has assured Republicans they will not issue the debt limit request this week, heading off a confrontation between the administration and the GOP over Congress' power under the debt limit law to block the increased borrowing authority.

Under the terms of the August debt limit agreement, the administration was given the right to raise the debt limit by $2.1 trillion in three tranches, nearly unilaterally. The catch was that Republicans reserved the right for the House and Senate, within a narrow time frame, to block the increase. This caveat was largely symbolic. Democrats control the Senate and wouldn't undermine President Obama by triggering another debt limit crisis -- and even if they did, Obama would reserve the right to veto the so-called "resolution of disapproval." But it's a ready-made talking point for the GOP.

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Debt Ceiling

Debt Limit Hike Causes Behind The Scenes Commotion On Capitol Hill

Brian Beutler | December 27, 2011, 3:40PM

President Barack Obama

We're trying to sniff out exactly how this happened and what's being done to sort it out. But the Obama administration's announcement that it will certify this week its intent to raise the debt limit didn't sit well on Capitol Hill.

The key issue is the 15-day deadline Congress has to vote on a resolution of disapproval of the President's request to raise the debt ceiling. The timing of the administration's planned certification implies that the 15 days would be up before Congress returns in January from its holiday recess. Whether this was an accident or not, we're told that the calendar issue created a behind-the-scenes mess -- with Republicans threatening to return early from recess -- and that the administration is trying to figure out a way to keep it from spilling out into the public.

I've reached out to the administration for further guidance on both questions. It's still unclear whether this was a hardball political move, a dumb mistake, or just a misunderstanding -- or what, if anything, can be done to avoid a public clash with the GOP over the timing.

Debt Ceiling

Is The White House Jamming Republicans Over The Debt Ceiling?

Brian Beutler | December 27, 2011, 1:00PM

President Barack Obama and Senior Adviser David Axelrod

Is the White House taking advantage of the holiday recess to thumb its nose at Congressional Republicans over the nation's debt limit?

That's one interpretation of an announcement Treasury Department officials made today, which sets in motion an automatic increase in borrowing authority while Congress is out of session.

All of this dates back to the destructive summer fight over whether, by how much, and under what conditions to raise the national debt ceiling. Back then, the White House sought over $2 trillion in new borrowing authority -- enough to assure the country avoided another debt limit fight in the middle of election season, when members of Congress might be even more willing to put the country's creditworthiness at risk for short-term political gain.

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Super Committee

Lieberman: Let A Thousand Super Committees Bloom

Brian Beutler | December 13, 2011, 10:39AM

Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) speaks during a hearing conducted by the Senate Homeland Security Committee to mark the tenth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks on September 13, 2011 in Washington, D.C.

Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) says the right response to the failure of the Super Committee is to let a thousand ad hoc Super Committees bloom.

When the panel failed, it lost all of its power, which was in essence the power to force Congress to hold up-or-down votes on their recommendations -- no amendments, no filibuster.

Lieberman wants to extend these same powers to any sufficiently large bipartisan "gang" in the House or Senate, if they can come up with at least $1.5 trillion in deficit reducing measures over the course of three months.

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Super Committee

CNN Poll: What The Super Committee Produced Is....Exactly What We Don't Want

Kyle Leighton | November 21, 2011, 12:33PM

New data from a CNN/ORC poll shows that since the Super Committee seems headed for failure, the resulting budget "haircut" will produce precisely the cuts the American public least desires.

Both parties in Congress are viewed as part of the problem -- Americans disapprove of the job Republicans are doing at a 77 percent clip, and 68 percent think Democrats are doing a lousy job as well. But when it comes to specific policy proposals, it's fairly one sided. Support for higher taxes on businesses and high income individuals is the highest rated idea with two thirds of Americans for it, second is cuts to domestic programs at 60 percent.

One of the least popular options are actually what's slated to happen if the Super Committee doesn't reach an accord -- support for cuts to defense hovers around forty percent. So does "major changes" to the Medicare systems and Social Security. The current plan should the Super Committee fail is a two percent cut to Medicare providers, cuts to defense and to other domestic programs. Of course, leaders can still reach another deal before those cuts become reality in 2013, but they'll have to overcome a filibuster vote.

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Jeb Hensarling

Top GOPer On Super Committee Says No New Revenue, Games Out Strategy If Panel Fails

Brian Beutler | November 15, 2011, 8:41PM

Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-TX)

It's hard to see how the Super Committee can possibly reach a consensus by this time next week after Republican co-chair Jeb Hensarling's appearance on CNBC Tuesday night. The short version is that he left the ball in Democrats court, and hinted that if the committee fails, Congress will spend the next year or so trying to change the terms of an automatic penalty to make sure that hundreds of billions of cuts to defense programs never take effect.

Hensarling claimed that if the committee recommended even a dollar of new net tax revenue -- the kind of revenue Dems are demanding -- it would constitute a step in the wrong direction. He said a GOP plan put forward by Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) -- one which Republicans claim would raise revenues by nearly $300 billion over 10 years, but would also make the Bush tax cuts permanent -- is as far as Republicans are willing to go on revenues. But that's an offer Democrats flatly rejected as unserious. And unless one of the parties breaks cleanly with its publicly stated position, the committee will either fall well short of reducing the deficit by $1.2 trillion over 10 years as required by law, or will fail altogether.

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Balanced Budget Amendment

Despite Packed Agenda, Congress Returns To Radical Balanced Budget Amendment

Brian Beutler | November 14, 2011, 6:01AM

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and Houser Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA)

Congress is busy. It has to extend federal funding for all federal agencies before November 18, or else the government will shut down, and the deficit Super Committee has to recommend a big package of budget cuts to the House and Senate by November 23, or set in motion dramatic automatic spending cuts to defense programs and Medicare providers. But it's still suffering a hangover from the debt limit fight. And so this week House GOP leaders will fulfill one of the terms of the debt limit law, and appease some conservatives, by holding a vote on a Constitutional Balanced Budget Amendment.

There's a bit of a strife among Republicans -- and even among some Democrats -- over the details of such an amendment. But almost any version would constitute a radical policy shift for the country, and threaten key safety net programs as the country ages and the cost of health care soars. It would lead to dramatic swings in U.S. fiscal policy, and at a time of high unemployment, would cost the economy dearly.

Don't believe me, here's what analysts at Macroeconomic Advisers said about it.

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Jobs

Free Money! Why The U.S. Can, But Isn't Putting New Jobs On The Credit Card

Brian Beutler | November 9, 2011, 1:50PM

Dmitry Rukhlenko / Shutterstock

Here in the United States, Republican lawmakers are busy blocking plans to spend money on jobs and infrastructure improvement, while both parties work in earnest to find ways of cutting $1.2 trillion or more from the budget over the next 10 years.

They're doing this at a time when demand for America's debt is so high that investors will essentially pay the U.S. to borrow.

You read that right. Here are the numbers. They may appear hard to parse, but it's pretty straightforward: when you adjust for inflation, the interest creditors get for parking their money here is negative. That's not a deal you'd accept from your bank, but it's the deal we're getting now.

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Super Committee

Why The Super Committee Is Heading For Super Catastrophe

Brian Beutler | November 8, 2011, 5:48AM

As of Tuesday morning, betting on the Super Committee to succeed would be playing the odds.

A key member of the Senate Democratic leadership team has openly predicted the panel will gridlock and fail, and placed the blame squarely on Republicans.

As GOP committee members met privately, Maryland Rep. Chris Van Hollen -- a Democrat on the panel -- told Bloomberg, "You need to close some of these tax loopholes and you need to generate additional revenue. And so that balance is going to be important. We saw the dueling letters just last week. We had a bipartisan group in the House that said, 'Look, everything is on the table including revenues - tax revenues.' And within 24 hours you had 33 [Republican] Senators say, 'no new net tax revenues.'"

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Super Committee

Not-So-Super Committee? Poll Finds Little Confidence A Deal Will Be Reached

Kyle Leighton | November 3, 2011, 9:30AM

Only a quarter of Americans think that the Super Committee tasked with coming up with a deficit reduction plan for the federal budget will reach a deal, a new Quinnipiac poll shows. 67 percent say that no deal will be reached, which would trigger cuts in the Defense Department and to entitlement programs.

The poll also shows that Americans have less appetite for tax increases as part of the package, which runs counter to a number of findings from the summer. When asked, "From what you know so far, do you think the deficit-reduction proposal should include some increases in tax revenue or should it include only cuts in government spending?" only 39 percent were in favor of any tax increases to offset the debt, while a near majority of 48 percent said that only spending cuts were needed. Independent voters closely mirrored that split.

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Occupy Wall Street

Dems In Tug-Of-War Over Occupy Wall Street

Brian Beutler | October 18, 2011, 9:18AM

Thousands of protesters march against Wall Street and the country's economic problems.

Whether individual Democratic pols realize it or not, a battle's underway to convince them that the answer to a key question has been settled: What will it mean for you in 2012 if you embrace the Occupy Wall Street movement now?

There have been multiple polls suggesting that pluralities or majorities of Americans support of the Occupy Wall Street protests. None of them suggest directly that embracing the movement would be a good or bad move for members of either party.

So for a particular kind of political professional, a Monday email from the centrist group Third Way attempting to answer that question verged on parody.

"Occupy Wall Street -- Bad strategy for dems," the subject line read. Third Way prizes itself on dividing politics into poles and seeking a middle path between the two, so their advice came as little surprise. But it also illustrated the extent to which the Democratic party is being pulled in opposite directions on a key question this election season.

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Tea Party

White House: Tea Party Is Wagging The GOP Dog

Susan Crabtree | October 12, 2011, 4:57PM

White House Press Secretary Jay Carney

White House spokesman Jay Carney on Wednesday trained his fire on the Tea Party, blaming "one element" of the Republican party for Standard and Poor's mid-August downgrade of U.S. credit worthiness.

In response to a a question about why support for President Obama is slipping among Latino voters, Carney readily acknowledged that approval ratings for both Obama and Congress have fallen sharply this year as Americans have grown increasingly disgusted by the brinksmanship between the two parties, which was on vivid display during the mid-summer debt crisis.

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Super Committee

Super Committee Dems Avoid Trap That Skewed Debt Limit Fight

Brian Beutler | September 28, 2011, 2:41PM

'Super Committee' members Sen. Patt Murray (D-WA) and Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), September 7, 2011.

Democrats on the new deficit Super Committee are determined to be better negotiators than their predecessors in earlier deficit discussions leading up to the debt limit fight.

According to aides with knowledge of the discussions, they're trying to keep the panel's early focus on revenues, to avoid falling into a familiar trap of agreeing to a bunch of spending cuts only to have Republicans freeze up when they try to change the conversation to taxes.

A bit of background is appropriate here.

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Grover Norquist

Norquist To Buffett: Send Government Your Money -- Here's The Envelope, You Pay For The Stamp

Brian Beutler | September 28, 2011, 1:03PM

Grover Norquist

Republicans and conservative operatives have become obsessed with the idea that wealthy liberals should prove their largesse not by making public arguments for higher taxes on people like themselves but by donating money to the U.S. Treasury.

This is the fiscal equivalent of the old critique that environmentalists should just buy hybrid cars and never fly anywhere instead of fighting for laws meant to combat climate change. It's silly, but it's combustible, and it exploded on Twitter and elsewhere after an Obama supporter in California this week asked the President to raise his taxes.

Anti-tax warrior Grover Norquist has turned this talking point into world class snark.

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Deficit

No Confidence Men: 62 Percent Have Little Or No Confidence In GOP Leaders On Debt

Kyle Leighton | September 26, 2011, 6:28PM

House Speaker John Boehner said that he got 98 percent of what he wanted in the final debt ceiling deal this summer. But the percentage of Americans that trust the GOP to do what's right on the deficit is significantly lower than that -- nearly three times lower.

As Americans' stomachs turn at the possibility of a government shutdown over yet another spending battle, everyone seems to be at fault. On Monday morning Gallup released the news that more people are dissatisfied with the way government is being run than they were after Watergate, a very high (or low) bar that Washington has hit a few times during the last decade or so. Later on Monday the Pew Research Center released some delineations about that sentiment.

Pew conducted a survey on how Americans feel about political leaders' ability to handle the deficit, an issue that has been eclipsed as the highest priority by jobs, but is still a major concern. The data showed that only 35 percent of Americans have confidence that GOP congressional leaders will do the right thing on the deficit, 43 percent thought the same about congressional Democrats, but a majority of 52 percent felt that President Obama will do the right thing on the issue.

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Super Committee

Lost And Found: Papers Detailing Items On GOP Super Committee Wishlist

Susan Crabtree | September 23, 2011, 12:43PM

Image From Danny E Hooks / Shutterstock

In these times of secretive deficit super committee meetings, back-room pressuring on particular proposals and endless speculation on what the panel will wind up doing, it might be a good idea not to leave internal working deficit-reduction documents lying around the Capitol.

TPM got a hold of what appears to be an internal GOP Super Committee wish list -- a chart of working proposals for finding hundreds of billions of dollars in cost savings. A source recently forwarded the documents after finding them lying on a table outside the Speaker's lobby at the end of August, just when members selected to serve on the joint-deficit panel were being announced.

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Jobs

How Obama's Jobs Plan Could Trigger Another Debt Limit Fight Before Election Day

Brian Beutler | September 19, 2011, 6:15AM

President Barack Obama and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner

If President Obama manages to get his entire jobs plan passed -- a big if, of course -- it will quicken the pace at which the federal government is burning through its new borrowing authority and could set up another debt limit battle with Republicans before Election Day 2012.

There are several variables at play, and another debt limit fight before the election wouldn't be a sure thing. But it's not out of the question, especially if economic growth between now and then is weaker than predicted.

A slower-than-expected economy -- or a double dip recession -- combined with the jobs bill's $447 billion price tag, means the federal government could run out of borrowing authority right about October 2012, according to one worst-case-scenario estimate. The deal to raise the debt limit last month was designed to give the government enough cushion to make it past the election before the parties would have to square off again. But that was before Obama introduced his new jobs plan, and before revised economic forecasts revealed the economy's in worse shape than economists believed earlier this year.

Here are the variables to watch that could come together to create an exquisitely timed political crisis:

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Super Committee

Over GOP Objections, Budget Hawks Say Super Committee Should 'Go Big'

Brian Beutler | September 13, 2011, 5:57AM

President Barack Obama President, with Erskine Bowles (left) and Sen. Alan Simpson (right.)

Democratic and Republican members of the joint deficit Super Committee will meet Tuesday for their first substantive meeting, which will examine the history and driver of the country's debt, and the risk it poses in the future.

It will be the committee's second meeting overall and its first since President Obama pushed the panel in his joint address to Congress to find significantly more than the $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction they're required to find, to finance a near-term jobs bill.

That pressure has some Republicans saying that Obama's needlessly complicated the committee's task -- finding $1.2 trillion in cuts, revenues and savings is hard enough! -- and members should keep their eyes on the more modest goal spelled out in the debt limit law.

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Barack Obama

Boehner To Obama: Thanks For The Jobs Plan -- Let's See How Much It Really Costs

Brian Beutler | September 12, 2011, 11:34AM

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH)

Reflecting the GOP leadership's new kinder, gentler, less partisan rhetorical tone, House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) says he appreciates President Obama's new jobs legislation, despite continuing policy differences between the parties. Obama's not being quite so gentle, barnstorming the country and seizing the airwaves demanding Congress "pass this bill." The GOP can't just sweep the bill into the dustbin under such circumstances, so the question is how exactly will they operate the sausage maker.

Boehner's statement offers some clues. "[W]e appreciate the President's pledge to transmit legislation to Congress and will immediately request that it be scored by the Congressional Budget Office," Boehner said. "Once we receive CBO's analysis, we can begin the important work of reviewing the various elements of his proposal."

This is a far cry from the "hell no you can't!" days of health care reform. But there are booby traps.

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Super Committee

Can The Super Committee Even Pass Its First -- And By Far Easiest -- Test?

Brian Beutler | September 8, 2011, 6:06AM

'Super Committee' members Sen. Patt Murray (D-WA) and Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), September 7, 2011.

The deficit Super Committee will hold its first public hearing Thursday morning, to adopt its rules of self-governance. Then, in a few days it will hear testimony from CBO Director Doug Elmendorf on the origins, future, and consequences of the nation's debt.

That all sounds perfunctory, and in many ways it is. But it will also pose the panel with its first and most basic test: whether its six Democrats and six Republicans can accept a single history of the country's large public debt as a starting point for reining it in. As simple as that should be, it's anything but.

Outside of partisan politics, the backstory here is pretty uncontroversial.

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