Barack Obama

Just The Facts: Republicans Falsely Claim Obama Seeks Biggest Tax Hike In History

Brian Beutler | September 29, 2011, 11:19AM

President Barack Obama

After President Obama unveiled his jobs and deficit reduction plans, he took to the road to draw a contrast between himself and the Republican politicians who want to end his political career. Obama's proposes to spend money now on hiring people and cutting taxes temporarily to spur further job growth, and pay for it in just over a year, in large part by raising taxes on wealthy Americans.

The Republican vision -- phasing out safety net programs like Medicare in order to maintain low tax rates on the same group of affluent people -- is far less popular. So in their own tried and true way, Republicans recast Obama's plan for "shared sacrifice" as "the largest tax increase in history."

What a difference! But also untrue.

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Super Committee

Super Committee Dems Avoid Trap That Skewed Debt Limit Fight

Brian Beutler | September 28, 2011, 2:41PM

'Super Committee' members Sen. Patt Murray (D-WA) and Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), September 7, 2011.

Democrats on the new deficit Super Committee are determined to be better negotiators than their predecessors in earlier deficit discussions leading up to the debt limit fight.

According to aides with knowledge of the discussions, they're trying to keep the panel's early focus on revenues, to avoid falling into a familiar trap of agreeing to a bunch of spending cuts only to have Republicans freeze up when they try to change the conversation to taxes.

A bit of background is appropriate here.

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Grover Norquist

Norquist To Buffett: Send Government Your Money -- Here's The Envelope, You Pay For The Stamp

Brian Beutler | September 28, 2011, 1:03PM

Grover Norquist

Republicans and conservative operatives have become obsessed with the idea that wealthy liberals should prove their largesse not by making public arguments for higher taxes on people like themselves but by donating money to the U.S. Treasury.

This is the fiscal equivalent of the old critique that environmentalists should just buy hybrid cars and never fly anywhere instead of fighting for laws meant to combat climate change. It's silly, but it's combustible, and it exploded on Twitter and elsewhere after an Obama supporter in California this week asked the President to raise his taxes.

Anti-tax warrior Grover Norquist has turned this talking point into world class snark.

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Deficit

No Confidence Men: 62 Percent Have Little Or No Confidence In GOP Leaders On Debt

Kyle Leighton | September 26, 2011, 6:28PM

House Speaker John Boehner said that he got 98 percent of what he wanted in the final debt ceiling deal this summer. But the percentage of Americans that trust the GOP to do what's right on the deficit is significantly lower than that -- nearly three times lower.

As Americans' stomachs turn at the possibility of a government shutdown over yet another spending battle, everyone seems to be at fault. On Monday morning Gallup released the news that more people are dissatisfied with the way government is being run than they were after Watergate, a very high (or low) bar that Washington has hit a few times during the last decade or so. Later on Monday the Pew Research Center released some delineations about that sentiment.

Pew conducted a survey on how Americans feel about political leaders' ability to handle the deficit, an issue that has been eclipsed as the highest priority by jobs, but is still a major concern. The data showed that only 35 percent of Americans have confidence that GOP congressional leaders will do the right thing on the deficit, 43 percent thought the same about congressional Democrats, but a majority of 52 percent felt that President Obama will do the right thing on the issue.

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Super Committee

Super Committee Members Raked In $41M From Wall Street

Susan Crabtree | September 26, 2011, 1:31PM

Members of the deficit-reduction super committee have received a combined total of $41 million from the financial and real estate sectors during their time in Congress, according to a new report from Public Campaign and National People's Action.

The report also found that at least 27 current or former aides for members of the super committee have traveled through the revolving door between K Street and Capitol Hill and have lobbied on behalf of financial firms.

"Wall Street bought the deregulation that led to our economic collapse and the American public has paid the price," Nick Nyhart, president of Public Campaign said in a release. "The super committee should not give Wall Street and big banks another free ride because of their campaign cash."

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Nancy Pelosi

Pelosi: Super Committee Doing A Disservice If It Doesn't Consider Employment Impact Of Its Deficit Plan

Brian Beutler | September 22, 2011, 3:16PM

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)

Members of the Super Committee might be reluctant. But House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) -- who's a close ally of three Democrats on the panel -- says they would be doing a disservice to advance deficit reducing legislation without knowing its impact on economic growth.

"What the possibility is, of taking every initiative and passing it through the CBO for its job creating potential I think is a great idea," Pelosi said at her weekly Capitol briefing Thursday. "I don't know why anybody would want to make a judgment without that evaluation, especially at this time."

Pelosi noted that Democrats insisted that the panel focus on employment -- and the committee's rules reflect that to some extent.

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Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett Gave His Tax Return To Charlie Rose Last Month

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 22, 2011, 3:14PM

Attention Buffett Birthers on Capitol Hill: Warren Buffett has already made his 2010 tax return public.

Appearing on Charlie Rose last month, the billionaire investor brought his tax return along to prove his point about the Buffett Rule, which has become the centerpiece of President Obama's new plan to raise taxes on the super-rich.

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Warren Buffett

On Capitol Hill, Rise Of The Warren Buffett Birthers (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 22, 2011, 1:38PM

Warren Buffett and President Barack Obama

Republicans on Capitol Hill have found a new hidden document conspiracy to push to now that President Obama's long-form birth certificate is a matter of public record. Warren Buffett, they demand, show us the tax return!

The Hill reports big names in Congress are starting to say Buffett "needs to reveal his finances if his views on tax rates are going to serve as the basis for Obama administration policy."

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Super Committee

Senate Dems: Super Committee Bill Must Not Cost Jobs

Brian Beutler | September 22, 2011, 1:28PM

Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR)

In a Thursday letter to members of the joint deficit Super Committee, 11 Democratic senators say the powerful panel of House Democrats and Republicans must consider their recommendations' impact on job creation, and should result, at a minimum in no net job loss.

"[W]e request that the Select Committee adopt two principles: first, that each proposed recommendation be analyzed by the Congressional Budget Office to estimate its impact on employment," the letter reads. "Second, the Committee should adopt a "First Do No Harm" standard -- at a minimum its recommendations should not result in any net job loss and, ideally that they maximize new job creation while meeting the deficit reduction goals."

This effort was organized by Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR).

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Russ Feingold

Feingold Group To Press Super Committee On Buffett Rule

Brian Beutler | September 22, 2011, 6:22AM

Former WI Senator Russ Feingold

Former Wisconsin Sen. Russ Feingold offered enthusiastic praise for President Obama's deficit plan, and particularly for the so-called "Buffett rule" -- a principle holding that people who make more than a million dollars a year should pay at least the same effective tax rate as middle class workers.

"I just want to say how pleased I am that the President is taking a strong stand with this Buffett rule," Feingold said in a Wednesday interview. "What excites me even more, is it's the only fiscally responsible approach."

Feingold's new advocacy group Progressives United will press the joint Super Committee to adopt the Buffett rule as part of a broader deficit reduction plan. In an email to supporters, Feingold will make it explicit. "[T]he influence of big corporations and the super rich is strong in Congress, and several senators -- including Democratic ones -- are already opposing this crucial effort," the solicitation reads. "Tell the super committee how important it is to make millionaires pay their fair share."

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Medicaid

Disabled Advocates Take To D.C. To Protest Medicaid Cuts (VIDEO)

Ryan J. Reilly | September 20, 2011, 4:22PM

Updated: Sept. 20, 2011, 5:01PM

About 175 mostly wheelchair-bound protesters took to Capitol Hill on Tuesday to protest cuts to Medicaid in deficit reduction proposals.

The protest, organized by the disability group ADAPT, started in the Hart Senate Office Building and proceeded down Constitution Ave. to the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).

The GOP proposal would reduce federal spending on Medicaid by $1.4 trillion from 2012 to 2021. Obama's plan would reduce federal Medicaid spending $66 billion.

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Barack Obama

Obama's Plan Is The Opposite Of Paul Ryan's Plan -- For Good Reason

Brian Beutler | September 20, 2011, 6:05AM

President Obama's first term has been marked by a tendency to take the liberal policy consensus on any issue, move five clicks to the right, and begin negotiations having already conceded quite a bit to conservatives.

His new push to pass a $447 billion jobs plan, and reduce out year deficits in large measure by raising taxes on the rich marks a significant departure from the status quo ante. And it sets Obama up for a risky, but important and necessary fight with Republicans over the country's future.

Put it all together and his plan would juice the economy in the near-term, and pursue a vision for the country that's just about the opposite of the GOP's. In effect, it serves as a rebuke to House Republicans -- and particularly House Speaker John Boehner -- who walked away from an equally far-reaching plan that would have been much friendlier to conservative interests.

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White House

Centrist Dems Already Trying To Put The Brakes On Obama's Tax Increases

Susan Crabtree | September 20, 2011, 6:03AM

Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA)

President Obama's deficit-reduction plan--complete with tax increases on the wealthiest Americans--won high marks from his liberal base encouraged to see Obama back in fighting mode, but the plan is set to hit a brick wall in Congress -- even in the Democratically controlled Senate and the bipartisan super committee.

Moderate Senate Democrats are signaling strong resistance to tax increases in the President's deficit-reduction plan, and the early disapproval within his own party will no doubt give Republicans on the deficit super committee plenty of cover to block any and all revenue-raising aspects of Obama's plan.

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Taxes

Schumer: We Want A Vote On The "Buffett Rule" To Tax Millionaires

Brian Beutler | September 19, 2011, 1:53PM

Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY)

Congressional Democrats will draw a sharp distinction between themselves and Republicans by pushing for a vote on the "Buffett Rule" -- that millionaires should, at the very least, pay taxes at the same overall rate as middle class workers.

In a sign that Democrats on the Hill see this as both effective politics and a significant step toward erasing medium term deficits, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) -- tasked with helping the party more effectively message its policies -- said members of Congress should have to go on the record on this issue.

"I'd find it very useful to make some proposal along the lines that fits within the confines of the Buffett rule and put it on the floor," Schumer told reporters in a Monday conference call. "When the President goes around the country and keeps talking about it, as I believe he will do, we are going to win this fight."

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Barack Obama

Obama: This Is Not Class Warfare; It's Math

Susan Crabtree | September 19, 2011, 11:19AM

President Obama

President Barack Obama ignored a warning from Republicans against proposing tax increases Monday and rolled out a plan to reduce the deficit consisting of a mix of spending cuts and revenue raisers in an combative speech designed to persuade the public to embrace a balanced approach to bringing down the nation's debt.

In remarks in the White House Rose Garden, Obama drew stark contrasts between Republican's penchant for backing "tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires" while requiring seniors, the middle class and the poor to tighten their belts and accept sacrifices.

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Barack Obama

Obama's $1.5 Trillion Tax Increases Would Hit Wealthy Hardest -- Here's How

Brian Beutler | September 19, 2011, 9:41AM

President Obama's new deficit proposal includes $1.5 trillion in new tax revenue -- nearly half of the plan's $3.6 trillion deficit reduction target.

So what's in it?

Most of the $1.5 trillion comes from policies Obama has proposed before. Letting the Bush tax rates for the top two income brackets expire nets about $800 billion. The rest comes from ending myriad tax preferences that benefit wealthy Americans and businesses. This includes a plan he unveiled several days ago that would pay for his new jobs bill -- if the Super Committee can't find extra savings on its own -- that would limit the amount high-income earners can deduct from their tax filings. And, of course, it would end loopholes benefiting wealthy corporations.

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Jobs

How Obama's Jobs Plan Could Trigger Another Debt Limit Fight Before Election Day

Brian Beutler | September 19, 2011, 6:15AM

President Barack Obama and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner

If President Obama manages to get his entire jobs plan passed -- a big if, of course -- it will quicken the pace at which the federal government is burning through its new borrowing authority and could set up another debt limit battle with Republicans before Election Day 2012.

There are several variables at play, and another debt limit fight before the election wouldn't be a sure thing. But it's not out of the question, especially if economic growth between now and then is weaker than predicted.

A slower-than-expected economy -- or a double dip recession -- combined with the jobs bill's $447 billion price tag, means the federal government could run out of borrowing authority right about October 2012, according to one worst-case-scenario estimate. The deal to raise the debt limit last month was designed to give the government enough cushion to make it past the election before the parties would have to square off again. But that was before Obama introduced his new jobs plan, and before revised economic forecasts revealed the economy's in worse shape than economists believed earlier this year.

Here are the variables to watch that could come together to create an exquisitely timed political crisis:

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Super Committee

Why All Of Washington Is Screaming "Go Big!" Into The Wind -- At Least For Now

Brian Beutler | September 16, 2011, 6:20AM

The new mantra in Washington is "Go Big!"

It started with Alan Simpson and Erskine Bowles -- the co-chairs of President Obama's fiscal commission -- and is now on the lips of scores of members of Congress in both parties.

Joining about two dozen other senators Thursday, Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad (D-ND) urged the new deficit Super Committee "We're with you! Be brave! Be bold! Go Big!"

Even President Obama wants them to "Go Big!" -- he'll be sending Super Committee members a list of deficit reduction proposals that go way beyond the $1.5 trillion they're aiming for, and hopes to use those extra savings to finance his jobs bill.

But this isn't realistic if you listen to the members themselves, particularly Republicans.

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Super Committee

In Economic Speech, Boehner Closes Door On Tax Increases

Brian Beutler | September 15, 2011, 1:50PM

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH)

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) says the joint deficit Super Committee can't rely on the tax code for a penny's worth of its $1.5 trillion deficit reduction target. But as is so often the case when legislators discuss taxes, he left plenty of wiggle room for the panel's 12 members.

"When it comes to producing savings to reach its $1.5 trillion deficit reduction target, the Joint Select Committee has only one option: spending cuts and entitlement reform," Boehner told a friendly audience at the Economic Club of Washington, DC.

This is oddly precise language. Boehner's also argued that the committee should go beyond $1.5 trillion, and reduce deficits by multiple trillion dollars. So what happens beyond $1.5 trillion is unclear.

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Jobs

Blue Dogs Cool To Obama Jobs Vision

Brian Beutler | September 14, 2011, 1:29PM

Rep. Heath Schuler (D-NC)

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this article incorrectly attributed remarks by Rep. Kurt Schrader to Rep. John Barrow. TPM regrets the error.

Blue Dog Democrats are pushing members of the joint deficit Super Committee to reduce the deficit significantly more than they've been tasked with. But they don't want to talk about President Obama's jobs plan. And beneath the surface its clear that there are major differences between the White House and conservative members of his party.

Leaders of the Blue Dog caucus held a press conference in the Capitol Visitor's Center Wednesday to push the Super Committee to "go big." But thanks to an explicit efforts by Democrats and the administration the deficit panel's work has become linked to the idea of job creation, and Obama's jobs bill. But the Blue Dogs didn't really want to talk about it.

After the press conference I asked Rep. Heath Shuler (D-NC) whether he agreed with CBO chief Doug Elmendorf -- and by extension Obama -- that the wisest economic path involves near term stimulus followed by long-run fiscal restraint.

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CBO

CHART OF THE DAY: Austerity Is A Bad Idea That Republicans Love

Brian Beutler | September 13, 2011, 3:36PM

An unemployed man.

During Tuesday's joint Super Committee hearing on the origin and drivers of U.S. debt, Republicans were eager, as they are in many settings, to portray the country as on the brink of a genuine debt crisis -- and to argue that the most effective remedies to a debt crisis are spending cuts, not tax increases.

This sounds like bland political pabulum, and in some ways it is. But it's also a huge reveal. If we're not in a fiscal crisis, and we thus have years of running room ahead of us to make appropriate, and non-drastic policy changes, then there's no immediate imperative to make the dramatic changes to Medicare and other popular government safety net programs Republicans want to see.

Here's how CBO director Doug Elmendorf responded when Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) nudged him about the relative merits of cutting spending (i.e. rolling back government services) as part of a national austerity program.

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Super Committee

CBO Chief Gives De Facto Boost To Obama Jobs Plan

Brian Beutler | September 13, 2011, 2:36PM

CBO Director Doug Elmendorf

The Congressional Budget Office would be stepping out of bounds if it endorsed specific legislation or even hazy policy objectives. But it's hard to read CBO chief Doug Elmendorf's testimony to the joint deficit Super Committee Tuesday as anything other than a de facto endorsement of President Obama's broad strategy to boost the economy: legislation that spends money to hire people and reduces payroll taxes in the near-term, and that reduces deficits by even greater amounts in the middle and end of the decade.

"If policymakers want to achieve both a short-term economic boost and long-term fiscal sustainability the combination of policies that would be most effective according to our analysis would be changes in taxes and spending that would widen the deficit today, but narrow it in the coming decade," Elmendorf told the panel's 12 Democrats and Republicans. "The combination of fiscal policies that would be most effective would be policies that cut taxes or increase spending in the near-term, but over the medium and longer-term move in the opposite direction."

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Barack Obama

Boehner To Obama: Thanks For The Jobs Plan -- Let's See How Much It Really Costs

Brian Beutler | September 12, 2011, 11:34AM

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH)

Reflecting the GOP leadership's new kinder, gentler, less partisan rhetorical tone, House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) says he appreciates President Obama's new jobs legislation, despite continuing policy differences between the parties. Obama's not being quite so gentle, barnstorming the country and seizing the airwaves demanding Congress "pass this bill." The GOP can't just sweep the bill into the dustbin under such circumstances, so the question is how exactly will they operate the sausage maker.

Boehner's statement offers some clues. "[W]e appreciate the President's pledge to transmit legislation to Congress and will immediately request that it be scored by the Congressional Budget Office," Boehner said. "Once we receive CBO's analysis, we can begin the important work of reviewing the various elements of his proposal."

This is a far cry from the "hell no you can't!" days of health care reform. But there are booby traps.

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Jon Kyl

Kyl To Super Committee: Leave The Pentagon Alone!

Thomas Lane | September 8, 2011, 5:24PM

It's only had one public hearing so far, but already the so-called Super Committee seems to be causing headaches for its members.

Shortly after the committee's first gathering, held Thursday morning, Arizona Sen. Jon Kyl (R) headed to a forum hosted by conservative think tanks and said he'd be "off the committee" if it wound up advocating further cuts to military spending.

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Super Committee

Senators Push For More Transparency For Super Committee

Susan Crabtree | September 8, 2011, 12:46PM

Sen. David Vitter (R-LA)

Republican Sens. Dean Heller (NV) and David Vitter (LA) are trying to shed some sunlight on all of the deficit super committee's activities -- including fundraising.

Even before the first super committee's Thursday morning meeting began, which was open to the public and aired on C-SPAN, Heller introduced legislation to make all of the panel's meetings, even the most informal, open to the public. Vitter introduced a companion bill that would require super committee members to disclose all campaign contributions within 48 hours of receiving them.

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Super Committee

At First Meeting, Super Committee Agrees On One Thing: Failure Is Not An Option

Susan Crabtree | September 8, 2011, 11:38AM

Super Committee Members John Kerry and Patty Murray

As the deficit super committee kicked off its long-awaited first meeting Thursday morning, Republicans and Democrats on the panel were in perfect agreement on one thing: failure is not an option.

Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-TX) and Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA), the co-chairs of the joint House and Senate panel, in opening statements laid out the goal of achieving $1.2 trillion in additional deficit reduction over 10 years, as well as the stakes, in dire terms.

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Super Committee

Can The Super Committee Even Pass Its First -- And By Far Easiest -- Test?

Brian Beutler | September 8, 2011, 6:06AM

'Super Committee' members Sen. Patt Murray (D-WA) and Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), September 7, 2011.

The deficit Super Committee will hold its first public hearing Thursday morning, to adopt its rules of self-governance. Then, in a few days it will hear testimony from CBO Director Doug Elmendorf on the origins, future, and consequences of the nation's debt.

That all sounds perfunctory, and in many ways it is. But it will also pose the panel with its first and most basic test: whether its six Democrats and six Republicans can accept a single history of the country's large public debt as a starting point for reining it in. As simple as that should be, it's anything but.

Outside of partisan politics, the backstory here is pretty uncontroversial.

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Jobs

Cantor Demurs On Whether Super Committee Should Focus On Jobs

Brian Beutler | September 7, 2011, 3:32PM

House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA)

President Obama wants Congress to pass his jobs plan, and Democrats think the new deficit Super Committee is the appropriate venue for those initiatives. If creating jobs costs money in the near term, the Committee could simply offset those cuts with additional long-term deficit savings, beyond the $1.2 trillion floor required by the debt ceiling law.

But Republicans aren't sold. I asked House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) whether this would be an appropriate course of action for the Joint Committee -- new jobs spending now, more deficit cuts later. He demurred.

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Economy

Is The GOP Backing Off The Claim That Cutting Spending Creates Economic Growth?

Brian Beutler | September 7, 2011, 1:55PM

GOP Leaders

House Republicans have been successful at forcing significant cuts to the federal budget over the last nine months, but it hasn't translated into the economic expansion they promised. "Cut and grow" they called it, but so far there's been a lot of "cut" and not much "grow."

Here's House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA), echoing the vast majority of Republicans, in February: "[W]e must cut government spending to bring down the deficit and the debt because if you look at the current levels of debt, added what's required to fund future deficits, you're going to have a crowding out of private capital. If you do, businesses will not grow, and you will overall retard that economic growth. You will bring on inflation, erode the value of the dollar and create an economic environment where you are going to reduce consumer spending power and ultimately the standard of living in America."

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Barack Obama

Obama's Biggest Challenge Thursday, One Of His Own Making

Brian Beutler | September 7, 2011, 9:10AM

President Barack Obama

Barack Obama will face a daunting challenge Thursday evening when he attempts to focus the government's attention away from consolidating the federal budget, and back on to immediate job creation. Here's a partial list of hurdles: Republicans oppose all new spending, unless it's offset by cuts to key federal programs; they oppose most of the specific spending measures that experts say would create jobs; many Democrats, scared of their own shadows, won't support anything that doesn't have bipartisan support; the public has soured on Keynesian spending policies, and particularly the word "stimulus"; and the White House, quite understandably, doesn't want to be left fighting for a policy that voters oppose from the outset.

To put things in starker relief, no less than his presidency and the economic fate of millions of Americans is at stake.

That's a tall order -- but it is, in part, one of Obama's own making.

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Debt Ceiling

Super Committee Schedules First Hearing On Debt Crisis GOP Has Already Blamed On Dems

Brian Beutler | September 2, 2011, 2:59PM

Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-TX)

The 12 members of the new joint deficit Super Committee will meet Thursday for its first hearing on the origins, drivers, and potential consequences of U.S. debt.

For nearly all experts, this is a matter of settled fact. Most existing U.S. debt stems from a combination of Bush administration policies (massive tax cuts, unfunded wars), automatic consequences of the great recession (unemployment benefits, reduced revenues), and President Obama's stimulus bill. The key driver of future debt is health care costs, which will soon make Medicare unaffordable, and the ramifications, should policymakers fail to control the debt in the long run, would be economically catastrophic.

But for weeks, the committee's Republican co-chair, Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-TX) has been repeating a version of this talking point, from a recent official statement.

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Unemployment

White House: Unemployment Will Average 9 Percent In Election Year

Brian Beutler | September 1, 2011, 2:10PM

Jack Lew, Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB).

President Obama's mid-session budget review confirms what most private and government projections have recently concluded -- that the economy is considerably weaker than earlier forecasts held, and won't fully recover from the Great Recession for years.

Most troubling, both for the country and for Obama politically, is that near-term unemployment is expected to remain significantly higher than expected, averaging 9 percent in fiscal year 2012.

Obama's budget office initially calculated its economic forecast based upon data available through June. Even that data presaged an 8.8 percent average unemployment rate in 2011 and an 8.3 percent average rate next year. But the mid-session review got delayed, and when the Office of Management and Budget revised it to incorporate the data through the end of August, the picture became much gloomier. Unemployment will average 9.1 percent this year, and 9.0 percent next year, OMB concluded, and won't dip below 7 percent until 2015 at the earliest.

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