TPMDC Economy
Economy
Are Romney And Obama Competing For The Austerity Prize?
President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney
The American economy will sink back into recession if Congress fails to unwind a messy coil of austere fiscal policies that will trigger automatically at the beginning of the year.
Across the spectrum, experts are imploring political leaders not to be myopic and unyielding: delay the budget cuts until the economic recovery really takes hold, but be ready with a more considered course of deficit reduction when that moment arrives.
Yet Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, and their surrogates on Capitol Hill, are locked in a fight over which candidate and which party will more quickly and effectively reduce the deficit -- the opposite of what economists say we need.
The Obama administration and campaign trumpet data and articles showing that Obama's supposed spending binge is a right-wing fabrication. Paul Ryan -- the GOP's official spokesman on fiscal issues -- boasted that a Republican victory in November will give his party a mandate to turn his controversial spending-slashing budget into law.
"If we make the case effectively and win this November, then we will have the moral authority to enact the kind of fundamental reforms America has not seen since Ronald Reagan's first year," Ryan said.
At the same time, the parties are at pains to paint their rivals as the true merchants of austerity.
"Ryan also argued with a straight face on [Meet The Press] that the Ryan-Romney plan would avert the very European-style austerity on which it's modeled!" Obama strategist David Axelrod tweeted recently.
Resolving the tension between these two seemingly incompatible arguments -- more fiscally responsible, less austere -- turns out to be more difficult than adding up numbers on a ledger. But it provides an instructive look at what the candidates and parties stand for this election cycle.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: Barack Obama, Bush Tax Cuts, Center for American Progress, Douglas Holtz Eakin, Economy, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, Spending, Stimulus, Tax Cuts
Ben Bernanke
Congress Ignores Obvious Policy Solution To Major Economic Threat
If Congress passed legislation to fund the federal government for a year, then scattered to the four winds, the United States would find itself in recession sometime in 2013.
That's what the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office concluded in a Tuesday report, meant to alert elected officials to the dangers of allowing the country to fall off the "fiscal cliff." That's shorthand for allowing all of the Bush tax cuts and the payroll tax holiday, extended unemployment benefits, and Medicare physician reimbursement rates to expire; and to allow spending on domestic and defense programs to be cut indiscriminately. All of these things will happen automatically at the beginning of the year if Congress does nothing.
Budget deficits would fall dramatically, but at the expense of hundreds of thousands or millions of jobs at a time when the country's current economic maladies are just beginning to heal. By contrast, protecting the recovery likely means large budget deficits will persist for quite some time.
If there were an obvious way around this conundrum you'd think Congress would've taken it. In reality, according to policy experts and economists of a wide range of ideological leanings there is an obvious way around this conundrum -- and yet Congress isn't taking it.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: Ben Bernanke, Bill Clinton, Budget, CBO, Congressional Budget Office, Deficit, Doug Elmendorf, Economy, Fiscal Resonsibility, Recession
Mitt Romney
Romney Retreats From 'Unrealistic' Four Percent Unemployment Benchmark
Mitt Romney
GOP presidential hopeful Mitt Romney has come a long way from insisting "anything over four percent [unemployment] is nothing to celebrate."
That benchmark, which he set earlier in May, drew criticism from economists of every political persuasion, including GOP loyalists.
On Tuesday, he set a new goal for himself -- one that won't create a hoped-for contrast with President Obama.
"I can tell you that over a period of 4 years, by virtue of the policies that we put in place, we get the unemployment rate down to 6 percent, or perhaps a little lower," Romney said, "depends in part upon the rate of growth of the globe as well as what we're seeing here in the United States, but we get the rate down quite substantially."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: Barack Obama, CBO, Congressional Budget Office, Economy, Mitt Romney, Unemployment
John Boehner
CBO: Coming Fiscal Cliff Will Devastate The Economy (CHART)
Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX)
A giant austerity bomb is timed to go off at the beginning of next year, and the threat of significantly higher taxes and lower spending has Republicans running around the Capitol sounding more like John Maynard Keynes than John Boehner.
Automatic, across-the-board reductions to domestic and defense spending, combined with the looming expiration of the Bush tax cuts, will dramatically consolidate the budget in the next calendar year, if Congress does nothing. And despite bemoaning deficits throughout the Obama years, the GOP's suddenly come around to the view that cutting government spending is a job killer.
Just listen to Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX).
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: CBO, Congressional Budget Office, Economy, John Boehner, John Cornyn
Barack Obama
CHART: What Gov't Job Cuts Have Done To The Unemployment Rate
At a public event in Albany, N.Y., Tuesday, President Obama went counterintuitive. Bloated government is a phenomenon of Republican leadership, he noted, and it's helped them weather economic downturns in a way he hasn't been able to.
"[A]fter there was a recession under Ronald Reagan, government employment went way up. It went up after the recessions under the first George Bush and the second George Bush," he said. "So each time there was a recession with a Republican president, compensated -- we compensated by making sure that government didn't see a drastic reduction in employment. The only time government employment has gone down during a recession has been under me. So I make that point just so you don't buy into this whole bloated government argument that you hear. And frankly, if Congress had said yes to helping states put teachers back to work and put the economy before our politics, then tens of thousands more teachers in New York would have a job right now. That is a fact. And that would mean not only a lower unemployment rate, but also more customers for business."
As we've noted before, the numbers back this up completely.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Economy, George H. W. Bush, George W. Bush, Jobs, Ronald Reagan, Stimulus
The outcome had been staring the world in the face for weeks, but Francois Hollande's weekend victory in the French elections nevertheless sent foreign markets plummeting, reflecting the fact that the Eurozone crisis is still a huge global concern, and that Nicholas Sarkozy's defeat adds an element of uncertainty to an already chaotic situation.
But the markets' visceral reaction to the election masks a more complicated reality. According to experts who've been watching the Eurozone mess unfold for years, the market panic doesn't suggest that the previous regime was on the right course, and fell victim to the impossible politics of austerity. Quite the opposite. Austerity was unpopular both because of the immediate burden it imposed on voters and because it was failing at its supposed purpose of restoring stability to the Eurozone. But pro-austerity forces remain strong both in Europe and around the world, and even a signal as clear as the elections in France or the collapse of the Dutch government last month might not convince them to reconsider, and that has potentially disastrous consequences for the global economy.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: Angela Merkel, Economy, Euro, Eurozone, France, Francois Hollande, Nicolas Sarkozy
Labor
Labor Force Participation Is Lower Than It Has Been In 30 Years -- Why It Matters And Why It Doesn't
Among the new employment figures the Labor Department released Friday morning is an obscure one that's ripe for politicking: the labor force participation rate. It measures the percentage of the population age 16 and above who are actually working. The labor force participation rate fell last month to 63.6 percent, its lowest level since 1981.
In the midst of an economic recovery -- albeit a slow one -- why would the labor participation rate continue to be hover near four-decade lows?
If you take a long view of the figures, something becomes abundantly clear: there's a lot more behind the country's slumping labor force participation rate than today's weak economy. The real reasons behind the fluctuations in the rate over the past several decades are fascinating, and they raise some of the biggest questions in the field of labor economics.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: Economy, Labor, Labor Department, Recession
Jobs
Diminished Expectations: What To Look For In Friday's Jobs Numbers
The final months of 2011 and the first months of 2012 were marked by such positive economic news that economists, browbeaten by past false starts, started growing optimistic that a self-sustaining recovery was finally upon us. Then in recent weeks, the indicators went wobbly again, and optimism has given way to a renewed sense of dread that the earlier bursts of growth were misleading outliers.
Whatever's really going on in the actual labor market, the implications couldn't be more significant -- both for millions of unemployed Americans, and for all that's staked on the outcome of the 2012 election.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: Barack Obama, Economy, Jobs, White House
Economy
Romney Budget Attack Based Flawed View Of The Economy
In a new effort to turn the country's debt and deficits into political problems for President Obama, Mitt Romney's campaign is promoting a new infographic that draws a comparison between federal and household budgets.
It may be a political winner, but it's a deeply flawed way to look at budgeting, as even many conservative budget experts admit. And it rests on the false implication that President Obama has no intention or desire to rein in deficits in the coming years.
But it breaks down further when you examine the analogy more closely -- and, as Dean Baker, co-founder of the liberal-leaning Center for Economic and Policy Research says, it suggest either that Romney's misleading voters about his policy views, or that he has a "loony" view of the economy.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: Barack Obama, Budget, Dean Baker, Debt, Deficit, Economy, Mitt Romney, Recession
Barack Obama
Debunking Romney's Claim That It's Obama's War On Women (CHARTS)
Mitt Romney
Mitt Romney's having a terrible time turning the tables on Democrats. But his camp's claim that President Obama is the one waging the "real war on women" is best debunked visually.
With thanks to economist Justin Wolfers for the idea, the below graphs compare male and female employment metrics. The former, charting percent change in total monthly payrolls, shows what economists have known for quite some time. Male-dominated industries took a hard, early hit during the recession. As those industries rebound, more jobs are going to men than to women. Conversely, women lost a huge number of jobs in states and municipalities as a result of teacher layoffs -- a hemorrhaging that could have been stanched by Obama-proposed legislation to spur teacher hiring, which the GOP blocked.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: Barack Obama, Democrats, Economy, Jobs, Mitt Romney, White House
Barack Obama
Obama: Ryan Budget Is 'Thinly Veiled Social Darwinism'
President Barack Obama speaks on the economy in Shaker Heights, OH on January 4, 2012.
Today the presidential gloves really come off.
In a Tuesday speech hosted by the Associated Press in Washington, D.C., President Obama will deliver a broadside to the House-passed Republican budget, which calls for upending Medicare and making deep cuts to domestic social programs. Obama will describe it as a dark vision for America and draw a clear contrast with his campaign themes of reducing inequality and asking the wealthy to help pay down the nation's debt.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: Barack Obama, Budget, Economy, House Republicans, Medicare, Paul Ryan, White House
Economy
Government Jobs Buoyed Bush's Economy And Sunk Obama's (CHART)
President Barack Obama speaks on the economy in Shaker Heights, OH on January 4, 2012.
An enduring impediment to President Obama's economic recovery has been the erosion of public-sector employment, driven largely by layoffs at the state and local levels. As we've noted before, this wasn't a problem recent Republican presidents faced. Total government expenditures (federal, state and local) grew under Reagan and the two Bush presidents much more than it has under President Obama.
But how is that reflected in Obama's economic record? The economics blog Calculated Risk points us toward private- and public-sector payrolls under both Presidents George W. Bush and Obama, both of whom faced tough economies early in their first terms (though of wildly varied levels of severity).
We've adjusted these to reflect percent change, to account for population growth. The basic story is that Obama's private-sector recovery has outpaced Bush's, but Obama's been hobbled by government cutbacks that Bush never faced. Quite the opposite, in fact.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: Barack Obama, Economy, George W. Bush, Jobs, Recession, Ronald Reagan
Economy
End Of An Era: Why Public Transportation Is On The Rise (CHARTS)
The economy's on the rebound, and with it so is the U.S. auto manufacturing sector, three years after Detroit nearly went bankrupt. But a different indicator of U.S. economic growth suggests a significant realignment is under way in the American transportation system -- one that isn't necessarily good news for car makers.
The charts below tell a key part of the American story of the last century. Despite their much smaller numbers, Americans in the middle of the 1900s took more public transit trips on buses, trains and so on than we do today as a whole. Many more. In 1947 -- the peak year -- they racked up 23.4 billion trips in total. Last year it was a paltry-by-comparison 10.4 billion.
The key reason why won't surprise you.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: Economy, Infrastructure, Public Transit, Transportation
Barack Obama
How Congress Helps Republicans, But Not Democrats, Weather Bad Economies (Charts)
If President Obama's economic recovery continues apace, and his re-election prospects grow along with it, it won't be because Congress went out of its way to help. As we noted Tuesday, Obama's economy has benefitted from less of Washington's largesse than did crypto-Keynesian Ronald Reagan's. But this is actually part of a broader pattern. Recently, Republican presidents have benefited from accommodating Congress during times of economic weakness, while Democratic Presidents Clinton and Obama watched Congress suddenly grow stingy under their watch.
That pattern has significant implications for how these presidents weathered economic downturns politically, and to a great extent explains the political troubles Obama's faced in his first term.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Bush Tax Cuts, Defense Spending, Economy, George H. W. Bush, George W. Bush, Military Spending, Ronald Reagan, Spending, Stimulus, Tax Cuts
Harry Reid
Reid Dares GOP: Block Judicial Nominees, And You Will Also Stall The JOBS Act
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV)
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has a message for the Republicans: Stand in the way of confirming over a dozen judicial nominees, as you've threatened to, and the country can watch for weeks as you hold up the bipartisan JOBS Act. I dare you.
Ever since President Obama used his recess appointment power to install the director of a powerful consumer protection agency, and members of the National Labor Relations Board, Senate Republicans have threatened to hold up all of his other pending nominees. Including judges.
Normally, there's little a majority leader can do to thwart a determined minority bent on grinding the Senate to a halt. But Reid believes he's found the leverage he needs.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: Economy, Filibuster, Harry Reid, Jobs, Judicial nominees, Mitch McConnell, Patrick Leahy, Senate Judiciary Committee
Barack Obama
How Politics Damaged Obama's Recovery (CHART)
Last week we brought you this chart, demonstrating that the unemployment rate under President Obama is coming down fairly quickly -- though not as quickly as it did under President Reagan in the months before he won a landslide re-election in 1984.
Here's a major reason why.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: Barack Obama, Economy, Recession, Ronald Reagan, Unemployment
Ronald Reagan
Why Obama Hopes The Recovery Picks Up Even More (CHART)
President Barack Obama
Will recent months of economic good news, including today's Department of Labor unemployment report, redound to President Obama's political benefit in 2012?
If the GOP's messaging schizophrenia over the last several weeks is any indication, they seem to think it could. And there are real precedents for this effect. When President Reagan's economy bottomed out and began to improve, it did so early and quickly enough in his term that he pronounced it "morning in America" and won a landslide re-election.
Here's how President Obama's recovery looks by comparison.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: Barack Obama, Economy, Jobs, Recession, Ronald Reagan, Unemployment
Economy
Why The Economic Recovery Hasn't Felt Like One For The 99 Percent (CHARTS)
New data from a renowned economist show what most people in the country have intuitively understood for months: When the recession technically came to an end, it didn't really feel that way unless you were wealthy enough to weather it to begin with.
In his updated report "Striking it Richer," Emmanuel Saez of UC Berekely found that the top one percent in the U.S. hoovered up 93 percent of the income gains in 2010. To break that down, the top one percent enjoyed, on average, income gains of over $100,000 a year from 2009-2010. Everyone else saw their incomes rise, on average, about $80.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: Economy, Income Inequality, Recession
Barack Obama
Is It Morning -- Or Dawn -- In America? (CHARTS)
President Barack Obama
This post was updated at 1:15 p.m.
On Wednesday, Treasury Department officials briefed reporters on the current state of the economy, including official revisions showing that GDP grew faster in the last quarter of 2011 than previously estimated, and that savings are indeed keeping pace with renewed consumer spending.
The officials stressed they don't interpret the positive news of the past few months as definitive signs of a blooming economic recovery.
But one senior official made a key comparison -- one that provides insight into the potential magnitude of recent developments.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: Barack Obama, Economy, Ronald Reagan, Spending, Taxes
Iran
Gallup: Iran, China Top America's 'Greatest Enemy' List
America needs adversaries. And according to a new Gallup poll, Americans are happy to place Iran and China at the top of its "greatest enemy" list.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: Benjamin Netanyahu, China, Economy, Gallup, Iran, Israel, Mitt Romney, President Obama
Jobs
Two Charts That Should Terrify Republicans
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY)
If Republicans seem spooked to you these days, here's why.
President Obama's political comeback over the past several months aligns neatly with when he began more aggressively attacking the GOP and politicking for economic growth and equality back in September.
But over that same stretch, the economy began moving in the right direction. Indicators of economic growth started moving upward, and the eye-popping indications of economic weakness started moving downward. That's surely had an effect. And if the trends continue, it augurs very well for Obama in the general election.
Topics: 2012, 2012 elections, Barack Obama, Economy, Jobs, Unemployment
Budget
How Obama's Budget Throws A Big Punch At The GOP
President Barack Obama during his 2012 "State of the Union" address
President Obama's fiscal year 2013 budget envisions the economy healing steadily after years of hemorrhaging and stagnation -- and key government services surviving mostly despite the violence done to the federal ledger by the Bush tax cuts, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the 2008 financial crisis.
It also shows federal deficits declining steadily over the coming decade, and the national debt stabilizing as a share of GDP over the same period.
These are the consequences of multiple, competing strategic ideas:
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: Barack Obama, Budget, Economy, Medicare, Taxes, Warren Buffett
Payroll Tax Cut
Dems: GOP Bet On Bad Economy Creating Payroll Tax Cut Gridlock
Democrats are emboldened enough by their political turn of fortune that party leaders are laying payroll tax cut contretemps at the feet of Republicans rooting for further economic strife.
"[W]e've seen improvement: The unemployment rate's going down; people are getting back to work; there's a more confident air in America," Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) told reporters Tuesday at a leadership briefing with reporters on Capitol Hill. "Let's make no mistake: There's some Republicans that don't think that really works with their strategy of defeating President Obama. These are some of the same voices that are opposing any bipartisan agreement to extend the payroll tax cuts."
Other top Democrats say the same.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: Dick Durbin, Economy, Erick Erickson, Harry Reid, Payroll Tax Cut, Steny Hoyer
Economy
CHART: How Deficit Cuts Are About To Hurt The Economy
The U.S. economy will suffer over the next few years as a result of fiscal austerity measures including the recent spate of spending cuts, according to the Congressional Budget Office's latest forecast issued Tuesday.
Economic growth and the employment rate will be reduced for many years to come as a result of the August debt limit law's steep $2.4 trillion in spending cuts and expiration of expiring tax provisions including the Bush-era tax cuts, the budget office report concluded.
To illustrate this point, CBO made separate projections pegged to two baselines -- current law, in which the spending cuts and tax increases go into effect, and an alternative fiscal scenario in which these fiscal policy changes are voided.
Without the austerity measures, deficits are higher, but real GDP growth is projected to be as much as 0.8 percent higher this year and up to 2.9 percent higher next year, when the debt limit law's sequestration cuts kick in and the Bush-era tax breaks expire. The baselines even out after a decade but the near term hit to the economy is salient.
Topics: Economy
Economy
New Figures Show Economy Improving -- But Still Not Fast Enough
The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.8 percent in the last three months of 2011, the Commerce Department announced in an advance estimate Friday. The new figures help quell lingering fears of a double-dip recession, but economists say there remains cause for concern.
"At first glance, it looks good, because it's the 10th straight quarter of economic growth," Chad Stone, chief economist at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, told TPM. "But there's an awful lot to be concerned about when you dig into the numbers."
Stone noted that a large part of the gains came from businesses accumulating inventory -- but much of it wasn't sold. "So the excess capacity gap is not shrinking," he said. This, he argued, reflects that the trajectory of aggregate demand -- the more important indicator of economic strength -- remains problematic.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: Economy
Income Inequality
CHARTS: What Romney Doesn't Want You Talking About -- Except In 'Quiet Rooms'
Mitt Romney
Too bad for Mitt Romney. Turns out income inequality -- that thing he claims has no place in our political debate, or anywhere outside of "quiet rooms" -- will be a central theme of President Obama's re-election message. We know this because one of his top economic advisers essentially claimed as much in a public address at a top DC think tank on Thursday morning.
And the data he brought to the table suggests Democrats will have an easy time making their case.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: Alan Krueger, Barack Obama, Council of Economic Advisers, Economy, Income Inequality, Mitt Romney
Economy
Top White House Economist: Economy Still Vulnerable
President Barack Obama
One of the White House's top economists Thursday said recent good economic news is a sign that the economy continues to recover slowly, and suggested it's still susceptible to shocks -- specifically the possibility that Congress will fail to extend the payroll tax cut through the end of the year.
"If you look at the statistics that are coming in, it's clear that they're painting a picture of an economy that is slowly recovering -- slowly but surely recovering," said Council of Economic Advisers chairman Alan Krueger at an event hosted by the Center for American Progress. "I think it's extremely important that we keep that momentum going forward. The steps that I would highlight most importantly are extending the payroll tax cut through the end of the year and extending unemployment insurance benefits. The CBO concluded that of all the measures we've looked at, extending unemployment benefits have the most bang for the buck in terms of supporting demand, raising economic growth and creating jobs."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: Alan Krueger, Council of Economic Advisers, Economy, Payroll Tax Cut, Unemployment
Economy
CHART: How The Debt Limit Fight Hurt The Economy, Delayed Recovery
House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and Houser Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA)
Last week's surprisingly positive jobs report overshadowed another bit of good news for the economy: last November showed the biggest growth in consumer credit in 10 years. Typically that's a sign that consumer confidence is up, banks are willing to lend, and demand is on the rise.
If you look back at recent monthly data, though, you'll see that this particular green shoot should have poked through the ground months ago, but was stymied by the GOP's debt ceiling hostage drama.
Take a look at the evidence:
Topics: Debt, Debt Ceiling, Economy, Jobs, Unemployment
Economy
The Rapid Economic Recovery Republicans Are Praying Against
President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden
Everything that's supposed to happen in politics this year, and everything that has happened for the last several months, has been premised on the tacit, but seemingly safe assumption: The economy will remain weak for years.
This has underlined Congressional jobs bill theatrics, campaign rhetoric about Obama's record, debates about who's to blame for high unemployment, and which party best represents the interests of the middle class.
But what if that assumption is wrong?
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: 2012, 2012 elections, Barack Obama, Economy, Jobs, Unemployment
Payroll Tax Cut
Dems Warn GOP: Don't Strangle Recovery By Screwing With Payroll Tax
Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)
Top Democrats pulled a little stunt Friday morning, when they tried to upend the House's pro forma session to confer about and debate the payroll tax cut.
But in their remarks to the press afterward, they parlayed today's positive jobs figures into a serious political warning to the GOP: Don't threaten the recovery by playing games with the economy. In essence, today's positive economic news raised the stakes of the payroll tax cut fight -- if Republicans can't get their act together and the tax cut lapses, it will muffle the recovery just as it's finally starting to turn economist's heads.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: Chris Van Hollen, Economy, Nancy Pelosi, Payroll Tax Cut, Unemployment
Mitt Romney
Romney's Claim To Be A Job Creator Hits The Skids
Mitt Romney
Mitt Romney's effort to disguise one of his biggest political liabilities has hit a major snag -- one that may force him to abandon his most effective but misleading talking points about his work in the private sector..
Romney makes two different, but implicitly entwined claims: That while working in corporate management he created over 100,000 jobs and that -- by comparison -- Obama his presided over millions of job losses.
This is a false juxtaposition, based on two false claims. And so far, precious few reporters have pressed Romney or his campaign about it. But in the past several days, the veneer of plausibility has begun to peel leaving the candidate highly exposed to backlash from the press.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: Economy, Jobs, Mitt Romney, Stimulus
Economy
Economic Experts Gather In DC To Explain Why Politics Has Doomed Us
Image by Mike Flippo / Shutterstock
As the U.S. government and governments in Europe respond to the global economic slump with conservative austerity measures, it's easy to forget that the overwhelming professional economic consensus is that depressed countries that can afford to should be doing the opposite -- ramping up government purchases of goods and services and putting off the budget cuts and tax increases for a few years.
This isn't even close to what's happening. And as the space between what these experts think should happen and what global elites are actually doing grows, the experts' forecast is becoming more and more pessimistic.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: Bruce Bartlett, Economy, Newt Gingrich, Payroll Tax Cut, Ronald Reagan, Stimulus
Chuck Schumer
Schumer: GOP Message Machine Can't Save Them From Tax Debacle
Elaborating on a premise that should be familiar to TPM readers, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) told reporters Wednesday that the political terrain has shifted so much over the last several months that the GOP's playbook isn't working -- and it has them badly wrongfooted.
"You have to follow the broad movements underground that affect our politics," he said. "And it's happening. And they seem to be just stuck on the wrong side of issue after issue after issue. They're very good at messaging. They're very good, you know, they have some media people who just follow their line....but the weight of the issues and the place where America is at is so overwhelming that's no longer enough to sustain them."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: Chuck Schumer, Economy, Occupy Wall Street, Payroll Tax Cut, Tax Cuts, Taxes
Payroll Tax Cut
McConnell Swats Down GOP-Sponsored Bill To Raise Taxes On Millionaires
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) conducts a news conference along with fellow GOP members on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C. on November 30, 2011.
Awkward!
Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell brought a bunch of rank and file members to the microphones with him after a conference lunch Tuesday to discuss consumer finance regulation. But one of those Republicans -- Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) -- is introducing legislation to fund economic growth measures with higher taxes on millionaires and oil companies. And reporters took the opportunity to ask McConnell to address her plan publicly, in her presence.
After trying futilely to pass the mic to Collins, McConnell said pretty unequivocally that his caucus will overwhelmingly reject her plan.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: Economy, Jobs, Mitch McConnell, Payroll Tax Cut, Susan Collins, Taxes
Payroll Tax Cut
Collins, McCaskill Unveil Jobs Plan -- Including Millionaire Tax Increase
Sen. Susan Collins (R - ME), left, and Claire McCaskill (D - MO), stand together during a presidential signing ceremony for the Improper Payments Elimination and Recovery Act at the White House in Washington, D.C. on July 22, 2010.
As reported earlier, Sens. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) and Susan Collins (R-ME) just dropped the details of their plan to extend the payroll tax cut, which includes other economic growth proposals. And both sponsors were explicit about the fact that their goal is to entice GOP senators to break their anti-tax streaks.
First the details on the legislation.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: Claire McCaskill, Economy, Infrastructure, Jobs, Payroll Tax Cut, Susan Collins, Taxes
Recession
CHART OF THE DAY: 50% Chance Of Another Recession... Because Of The Euro
Here's why you should be worried about the spiraling demise of the Euro.
Travis J. Berge, Early Elias, and Oscar Jorda, Economists at the Federal Reserve Board of San Francisco, have analyzed the domestic and international factors that threaten the American economy. What they found suggests that the risk of another recession in the next several months is alarmingly high -- and largely out of our control. Downside risks within the U.S. are pretty low, but taken together with external factors, particularly the escalating crisis in Europe, the likelihood of another U.S. recession jumps above 50 percent.
Here's the graph:
Topics: Economy, Euro, Eurozone, Federal Reserve, Recession
Barack Obama
Hill Democrats Pleased With Daley's Diminished Role
Congressional Democrats weren't surprised Tuesday to learn, in a story first reported by the Wall Street Journal, that White House Chief of Staff Bill Daley had handed a big chunk of his portfolio over to senior adviser -- and former acting Chief of Staff -- Pete Rouse. Indeed, they've been living under the new regime for several weeks, and according to one highly placed Senate Democratic aide the improvement has been self evident.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: American Jobs Act, Barack Obama, Bill Daley, Democrats, Economy, Harry Reid, Jobs, John Boehner, Nancy Pelosi, Pete Rouse, Rob Nabors, White House, William Daley
Barack Obama
Three's A Trend: Polls Show Voters Believe GOP Intentionally Stalling Economic Recovery
House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and President Barack Obama
President Obama and the Democrats have succeeded at convincing voters that Republicans are trying to delay economic recovery, according to a series of recent polls.
The new data suggests that about half the country, including a majority of self-identified independents, believe that congressional Republicans are using their political power to thwart Obama's efforts to reduce unemployment, presenting Democrats an opportunity to make this argument more explicitly as the 2012 campaign moves forward -- to undercut Republicans' claims that Obama and the Dems bear full responsibility for the economy, and to make their pattern of obstruction a real liability for them.
Suffolk University polled registered voters in Florida and found that nearly half of voters, including large minorities of conservatives and Republicans, believed "Republicans are intentionally stalling efforts to jump-start the economy to insure that Barack Obama is not re-elected?"
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: Barack Obama, Economy, GOP, House Republicans, Senate Republicans
Super Committee
Chart: Super Committee Dems, GOP Differ On Jobs
As noted previously, the deficit Super Committee is gridlocked largely because the GOP is unwilling to accept higher taxes on wealthy people as part of a compromise with Democrats that also cuts Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. But the parties also differ on the question of whether their recommendations should include any near term spending and/or tax cuts to give the weak economy a much-needed boost.
Recently committee Republicans and Democrats presented each other with competing plans -- some details of which were leaked to the press. Aides note that the Dem plan contained about $300 billion in expansionary measures, while the GOP plan contained... well, see for yourself.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: Deficit, Economy, Jobs, Medicaid, Medicare, Social Security, Stimulus, Super Committee, Taxes, Unemployment
Jobs
Republicans Block Key Component Of Obama Jobs Bill
Senate Republicans Thursday blocked debate on yet another portion of President Obama's jobs bill -- one that would have provided $60 billion for funding transportation projects, and seeded a new infrastructure bank.
The vote was 51 - 49 with only 2 members of the Dem caucus -- Sens. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) and Ben Nelson (D-NE) -- joining the GOP.
It was the third test vote on jobs measures Republicans have stymied. In recent weeks they filibustered debate on the whole American Jobs Act, and on legislation that would have provided states $35 billion to hire and retain teachers and emergency responders. All the bills are paid for with tiny surtaxes on income over $1 million.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Topics: American Jobs Act, Barack Obama, Economy, Jobs, Unemployment
