HI-01

Ed Case Not Running Again For HI-01

Eric Kleefeld | May 31, 2010, 9:32AM

HI-01 House candidates Ed Case (D) and Colleen Hanabusa (D)

Former Rep. Ed Case (D-HI), who came in third place in the recent HI-01 special election, announced over the weekend that he will not run again in the regular Democratic primary election this September -- likely ceding the Dem nomination to the more liberal state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa, who came in second in the special election.

"My heart tells me to stay in this fight, but my head says this has become the wrong fight," Case in a statement. Case had been the unofficially-backed candidate of the national Democrats in that election, in which Dems suffered from a split vote of two Democrats versus one Republican, now-Rep. Charles Djou. However, many state-level Democrats never forgave him for his 2006 primary challenge against Sen. Daniel Akaka, with Akaka, Sen. Daniel Inouye and organized labor backing Hanabusa.

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HI-01

GOPer Djou Picks Up HI-01 House Seat Thanks To Split Dem Vote

Eric Kleefeld | May 23, 2010, 12:08AM

Rep.-elect Charles Djou (R-HI)

Republican Honolulu councilman Charles Djou has won the usually ultra-safe Democratic HI-01 House seat in a special election, thanks to a divided Democratic vote.

The results: Djou 67,274 votes, 39.5%, Democratic state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa 52,445 votes, 30.8%, and Democratic former Rep. Ed Case 47,012 votes, 27.6%. The big surprise here is not the Dems' loss -- which had been expected, due to the unusual circumstances of the race -- but instead that Case, who had been the unofficial favorite of Washington Democrats, came in third behind Hanabusa, a favorite of organized labor who had consistently polled in third place throughout this campaign.

With this result, don't be surprised if Hanabusa has some momentum going into the September Democratic primary, to pick the nominee to go up against Djou in the regular election in November.

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HI-01

Dems Brace For Loss Of Usually Ultra-Safe Hawaii House Seat On Saturday

Eric Kleefeld | May 21, 2010, 5:24PM

HI-01 House candidates Ed Case (D), Colleen Hanabusa (D) and Charles Djou (R)

National Democrats are gearing up to lose a perennially left-leaning district that the GOP hasn't been able to win since 1988, with the HI-01 special election coming to an end on Saturday. The reason for the loss? Two Democrats are vying for the seat and splitting the vote, allowing for the Republican challenger to sneak in and win.

The loss of the Honolulu-based district will be particularly embarrassing it was the birthplace of President Obama, and he carried it with 70% of the vote in 2008. (John Kerry won 52% of the vote there in 2004 and Al Gore took 55% in 2000.) The seat first became open when Democratic Rep. Neil Abercrombie announced in December that he would resign, in order to focus full time on his campaign for governor. It immediately became clear that there could be a split Democratic vote. The key here is that there is only one Republican running, Honolulu councilman Charles Djou, and two Democrats, former Rep. Ed Case and state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa.

Hawaii special elections for the House do not work like they usually do in other states, where candidates either compete in separate party primaries, or the parties select their candidates through an internal party process. Instead, a single-round election is held in which all the candidates appear together on one ballot, and whoever gets a plurality wins the election. The election has been conducted entirely by mail, and will end tomorrow.

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HI-01

GOPer Djou Leads In Cash On Hand For HI-01 Special Election

Eric Kleefeld | May 13, 2010, 10:23AM

HI-01 House candidate Charles Djou (R)

Republican Honolulu councilman Charles Djou has a big money advantage over his two Democratic opponents in the HI-01 special election, former Rep. Ed Case and state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa -- with more cash on hand than the two Dems combined.

Djou has $363,000, and no debt. Hanabusa is second in cash, with $187,000 on hand and $19,000 in debt. In third place is Case -- the unofficially backed candidate of the national Dems -- with $154,000 on hand and $45,000 in debt.

The GOP is heavily favored to pick this seat up, and the national Democratic Party has already pulled out of the race due to the split Democratic vote -- effectively ceding a district that President Obama carried with 70% of the vote, at least until the Dems can have another chance at it in the normal general election this November.

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HI-01

National Dems Withdraw From HI-01 Special Election

Eric Kleefeld | May 10, 2010, 11:22AM

HI-01 House candidates Ed Case (D), Colleen Hanabusa (D) and Charles Djou (R)

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is pulling out of the HI-01 special election --effectively ceding a district that President Obama carried with 70% of the vote, but where two Democratic candidates have been splitting the vote in an unusual race.

"The DCCC will not be investing additional resources in the HI-01 (Abercrombie-open) special election. Local Democrats were unable to work out their differences," said DCCC communications director Jennifer Crider said in a statement to The Hotline. "The DCCC will save the resources we would have invested in the Hawaii special election this month for the general election in November."

It appears then, that the DCCC's plan is to let Djou take this seat for the GOP in two weeks, and then work to kick him out in November, when the election will be conducted under the normal rules of one Democrats vs. one Republican in a normally deep-blue seat.

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HI-01

National Dems Could Abandon HI-01 Over Split Vote

Eric Kleefeld | May 7, 2010, 10:12AM

HI-01 House candidates Ed Case (D), Colleen Hanabusa (D) and Charles Djou (R)

National Democrats may end up abandoning the HI-01 special election, the Associated Press reports -- potentially ceding a seat to the Republicans that President Obama carried with 70% of the vote -- due to the vote-splitting of the two Democratic candidates, former Rep. Ed Case and state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa.

"It's an extremely difficult race, since two Democratic candidates are splitting the vote," said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Chris Van Hollen (D-MD). "The local Democrats haven't been able to come together and resolve that, so we'll have to re-evaluate our participation."

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HI-01

Ed Case Ad In HI-01: The White House Supports Me (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | May 7, 2010, 9:37AM

HI-01 candidate Ed Case (D)

Former Rep. Ed Case (D-HI), one of the two Democratic candidates in the HI-01 special election, has a new ad in which he ties himself to President Obama, the very popular favorite son in this state -- and practically claims the White House's endorsement in a race that could see the Dems lose a safe seat due to a split vote.

"Now Washington Republicans want him [Obama] to fail. And they'll use Charles Djou to help them. Djou actually said he'll be the 'exact opposite' of Obama," the announcer says. "Only one candidate is strong enough to stand with the president -- Ed Case. The White House believes Ed Case has the best chance of beating Djou, and moving America forward. Ed Case, President Obama -- putting Hawaii first."

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HI-01

Defying Polls And The National Dem Party, Hanabusa's Staying In HI-01

Evan McMorris-Santoro | May 6, 2010, 9:50AM

HI-01 House candidate Colleen Hanabusa (D)

The three-way race to replace the retiring Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-HI) will continue to give national Democrats headaches, according to one of the two Democratic candidates in the field. State Sen. Colleen Hanabusa (D) says that despite polls showing her trailing campaign could put just enough of a dent into former Rep. Ed Case's Democratic bid to flip the seat to GOP candidate Charles Djou, she's staying in through the end of the contest.

The TPM Poll Average for the special shows Djou with 32.3, Case with 32.0 and Hanabusa with 21.8. Whichever candidate gets the most votes among the three will win the seat.

There's been increasing pressure on Hanabusa by national Democrats to get out of the contest. But at a press conference yesterday, Hanabusa -- who has the endorsement of the state's most powerful Democrat, Sen. Daniel Inouye -- said she's staying in until the bitter end. That means the House race some Republicans are calling the Democrats' NY-23 will continue to cause worry down at DCCC HQ.

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HI-01

DNC Poll Advocates Ed Case Amidst Split Dem Vote In HI-01 Special Election

Eric Kleefeld | May 4, 2010, 10:23AM

HI-01 House candidates Ed Case (D), Colleen Hanabusa (D) and Charles Djou (R)

In a further sign that national Democrats are worried about the special election in Hawaii's First District, the Democratic National Committee is circulating a private poll making it clear that Ed Case, one of the two Democratic candidates splitting the vote, is the more electable choice over fellow Dem Colleen Hanabusa.

The numbers, among likely voters: Republican Charles Djou 36%, Case 34%, and Hanabusa 20%. The TPM Poll Average has Djou ahead with 32.3%, Case with 32.0%, and Hanabusa at 21.8%. A Democratic source has confirmed the authenticity of the poll to TPMDC.

From the pollster's analysis: "The bottom line is that with a split-Democratic vote, this congressional is more likely than not to fall into Republican hands. Ed Case is the only candidate who can beat Charles Djou in this multi-candidate special election in May."

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HI-01

Poll: GOPer Ahead In Hawaii Special House Election Thanks To Split Dem Vote

Eric Kleefeld | May 3, 2010, 2:05PM

HI-01 House candidates Ed Case (D), Colleen Hanabusa (D) and Charles Djou (R)

The new Honolulu Advertiser poll shows that Democrats are in danger of losing a seemingly ultra-safe House seat in Hawaii, thanks to the state's quirky special election process.

The numbers: Republican Honolulu councilman Charles Djou 37%, Democratic former Rep. Ed Case 29% -- and another Democrat, state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa, with 22%. The sample of likely voters has a ±5.2% margin of error.

Hawaii special elections for the House do not function according to the usual rules in other states, where candidates either compete in separate party primaries, or the parties select their candidates through an internal party committee process. Instead, a single-round election is held in which all the candidates appear together on one ballot, and the plurality-winner takes the whole thing. The election is being conducted entirely by mail, and will end on May 22.

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HI-01

DCCC Blasts GOPer Djou In New HI-01 TV Ad (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | April 20, 2010, 5:46PM

HI-01 House candidate Charles Djou (R)

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has a new TV ad in the Hawaii First District special election, attacking Republican candidate Charles Djou.

"First, we learned Charles Djou supported tax breaks for big corporations who export our jobs and children's future," the announcer says. "Now we learn Djou opposed a plan that protected the plans of 2,000 Hawaii teachers and school staff."

President Obama carried this district with 70% of the vote, but the Dems could be in real danger of losing it, at least for a few months until this coming regular November election, due to a split Democratic vote.

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HI-01

Poll: GOPer Djou Has Narrow Lead In HI-01 Special Election, With Dems Splitting Vote

Eric Kleefeld | April 16, 2010, 11:59AM

HI-01 House candidates Ed Case (D), Colleen Hanabusa (D) and Charles Djou (R)

The new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of the Hawaii First District special election finds that Republican Honolulu councilman Charles Djou could potentially win the race, thanks to a three-way dead heat and a big problem of Democrats splitting the vote under this state's unique special election process.

The numbers: Djou 32%, former Rep. Ed Case 29%, state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa 28%, a three-way dead heat within the ±5% margin of error. Keep in mind that Barack Obama won this district in 2008 with 70% of the vote.

Hawaii special elections for the House do not function according to the usual rules in other states, where candidates either compete in separate party primaries, or the parties select their candidates through an internal party committee process. Instead, a single-round election is held in which all the candidates appear together on one ballot, and the plurality-winner takes the whole thing. The election will be conducted entirely by mail, and will end on May 22.

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HI-01

AFL-CIO Mailers Back Hanabusa, Slam Ed Case In HI-01 Special Election

Eric Kleefeld | April 12, 2010, 11:46AM

HI-01 House candidates Ed Case (D) and Colleen Hanabusa (D)

The AFL-CIO is throwing its weight into the Hawaii First District special election, actively backing state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa in a new pair of mailers -- and going further by attacking the other Democrat in the race, former Rep. Ed Case.

The mailers target two key union demographics, warning them of the dire consequences that the union says Case's positions would mean for them. Public employees are told of "layoffs," "cutting pensions" and other negative developments, while longshore workers are told: "Ed Case Will Put Your Job AT RISK."

This special election was caused by the resignation of Democratic Rep. Neil Abercrombie, who wanted to focus full time on his campaign for governor. The race has seen a potentially crucial split in Democratic support. It has been widely reported that the DCCC is unofficially backing Case, who enters the race with very high name recognition from unsuccessful but very close Democratic primary campaigns for governor in 2002 and a 2006 primary challenge against incumbent Sen. Daniel Akaka. Meanwhile, the state Democratic establishment -- as embodied by Akaka and Hawaii's senior Senator Daniel Inouye -- are backing Hanabusa.

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HI-01

DCCC Ad Attacks GOPer In Hawaii Special Election (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | April 7, 2010, 12:13PM

HI-01 House candidate Charles Djou (R)

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has a new ad in the special election for Hawaii's First District, attacking Republican candidate Charles Djou -- a strategy that has been necessitated due to the unique circumstances of this race.

The ad slams Djou, a Honolulu city councilman, for signing the no-tax increase pledge from Grover Norquist's Americans For Tax Reform, which the ad construes as meaning that Djou would continue to support tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas. But beyond the content, it's clear that the DCCC must focus itself for now on going after the Republican, rather than promoting a Democratic candidate -- because there is no single Dem in the race, and a split vote could theoretically help Djou win the race.

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HI-01

Hawaiian Special House Election Could Split Democratic Vote

Eric Kleefeld | December 14, 2009, 2:18PM

Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-HI)

The pending resignation of Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-HI) presents a potential pitfall for Democrats: A special election in which the Dem vote could be split, handing a strongly blue seat to the Republicans.

Hawaii special elections for the House don't function according to the usual rules in other states, where candidates either compete in separate party primaries, or the parties select their candidates through committee meetings. Instead, a single-round election is held in which all the candidates appear on a single ballot, and the plurality-winner takes the whole thing.

Abercrombie was already running for governor, and three candidates were in the race to succeed him: Democrat Ed Case, who previously represented the state's other House seat; Democrat Colleen Hanabusa, the state Senate President; and Republican Charles Djou, a Honolulu city councilman.

With these three candidates all running in the special election, there could be split voter demographics no matter which way you look at it: two Democrats against one Republican (Djou); two men against one woman (Hanabusa); or two Asians against one white person (Case).

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