NY-23

Doug Hoffman: With '20-20 Hindsight' I Wouldn't Have Conceded

Eric Kleefeld | November 13, 2009, 6:25PM

Conservative Party Candidate Doug Hoffman, Rep. Bill Owens (D-NY)

Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate in the NY-23 election, appeared today on the Neil Cavuto show, where he kept the door open to challenging his narrow defeat by Democrat Bill Owens, who was sworn into office last week after Hoffman had conceded the race.

Hoffman said "I don't think we'll have an answer to this for at least a week or two," and thats when the totals are completed, "each candidate will still have another week to protest." He also said that with "20-20 hindsight," he would not have conceded on Election Night. Hoffman's concession allowed Owens to be sworn in quickly, even though the full vote-counting process was not completed -- and in this same interview, Hoffman attacked Speaker Nancy Pelosi for swearing in Owens.

Adjustments to the vote totals -- which came from a standard process of correcting human errors in election night spreadsheets -- showed Owens' lead shrinking from about 5,000 votes to 3,000, and spurring a a lot of talk in conservative media outlets about how Hoffman will be able to pull ahead from the several thousand absentee ballots yet to be counted. The math suggests that Hoffman is still highly unlikely to win, absent some other monumental error being discovered, because he would need to win the absentees by overwhelming margins.

Kay Bailey Hutchison

Hutchison Switches Course, Won't Resign From Senate While Running In Primary For Texas Governor

Eric Kleefeld | November 13, 2009, 5:43PM

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) and Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX)

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) has announced that she will not resign from the Senate while she is running for governor of Texas, which she had previously planned on doing as she challenges incumbent Gov. Rick Perry in the Republican primary.

"A newly appointed senator would be selected in the midst of a political storm," Hutchison said in a statement that cited the battle against the Democrats on health care and energy legislation, "And will need on-the-job training in the midst of a crisis."

This comes after a Rasmussen poll today, which showed her trailing Perry by 46%-35% -- and which also showed that 60% of likely primary voters disagreed with her plans to resign. Perry had frequently been attacking Hutchison for the planned resignation, as well.

Although Hutchison had previously announced her intention to resign at some point, she is now spinning this new decision as herself bravely saying no to what others had told her to do: "Some have told me that for the sake of political expedience I should quit the Senate now to focus on winning the primary. To them I say, perhaps its time we elect a governor who puts a little less priority on what is politically expedient."

ME-SEN

Is Snowe Popular Enough In Maine To Withstand Anger From The Right?

Eric Kleefeld | November 13, 2009, 4:35PM

Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME)

With a new poll suggesting that Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) could potentially lose her 2012 Republican primary to a conservative challenger, does the political environment in Maine mean that she could be in real danger from the right, or that she might have to become an independent or even a Democrat?

Snowe's office has not returned out requests for comment. We spoke to Mark Brewer, an associate political science professor at the University of Maine, for the opinion and perspective of a local expert.

"Certainly the numbers among Republicans are a little surprising. It is certainly the case that the Maine Republican Party has a pretty significant faction within it that is relatively conservative, that has for a decent amount of time now looked at Sen. Snowe somewhat skeptically, I guess -- and that's probably being charitable to a certain degree," said Brewer. "So the fact that there's anger within the Maine GOP at Snowe isn't surprising. The fact that the figure among the Republican primary figure, and the fact that there were 59%-31% in favor of a conservative challenge, that surprised me a little bit."

Read more »

Tea Party

Tea Party Group To Get 'Fired Up For Freedom,' Burn Rep. Perriello In Effigy

Eric Kleefeld | November 13, 2009, 3:01PM

Rep. Tom Perriello (D-VA)

The local Tea Party organization in Danville, Virginia, is taking their opposition to freshman Democratic Rep. Tom Perriello to a whole new level -- announcing that they will burn him in effigy, along with a similar image of Speaker Nancy Pelosi, at a rally called "Fired Up For Freedom."

"At this point we feel we have no representation in Congress," Danville Tea Party chairman Nigel Coleman told the Chatham Star Tribune, with the chief complaint being Perriello's vote for the House health care bill this past weekend.

Perriello's office declined to comment to TPM about this.

Late Update: DCCC chairman Chris Van Hollen has responded in a statement. "These shocking and despicable acts are becoming all too common at extreme right-wing Republican rallies. Hanging Members in effigy or displaying images of Nazi concentration camps on the steps of the Capitol have no place in any debate and Republican Members of Congress must condemn these actions," said Van Hollen. "While there should be a robust debate about reforming America's broken health insurance system, violent expressions are beyond the boundaries of a respectful debate. The American people are counting on Republicans to join Democrats in a constructive debate to help President Obama bring about urgently-needed health insurance reform."

Steve King

Rep. King: New White House Counsel Brought In To Protect...ACORN!

Eric Kleefeld | November 13, 2009, 2:45PM

Rep. Steve King (R-IA)

Rep. Steve King (R-IA) is attacking the appointment of Bob Bauer as the new White House Counsel -- saying that it's all a plot to protect ACORN!

In a new press release, King declares:

"Bob Bauer has a public record of defending Barack Obama's relationship with ACORN. Bauer has acted as the agent between Obama and ACORN, and now he will be perfectly positioned to be tasked with erasing the tracks between Obama and ACORN. Bauer's hiring appears to be a tactical maneuver to strategically defend the White House exactly one week after Louisiana Attorney General Buddy Caldwell raided ACORN's national headquarters in New Orleans and seized paper records and computer hard drives that may lead to the White House."

Read more »

Sunday Shows

The Sunday Show Line-Ups

Eric Kleefeld | November 13, 2009, 1:50PM

Hillary Clinton, Sec. of State

Here are the line-ups for the Sunday talk shows this weekend:

• ABC, This Week: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

• CBS, Face The Nation: Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-MI), Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT).

• CNN, State Of The Union: White House Senior Adviser David Axelrod; Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND), Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH); Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D-MT).

• Fox News Sunday: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY); Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

• NBC, Meet The Press: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton; Secretary of Education Arne Duncan, former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA), Rev. Al Sharpton.

Rand Paul

Rand Paul Meets With McConnell, After Failing To Commit To Supporting Him For GOP Leader

Eric Kleefeld | November 13, 2009, 12:01PM

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Senate candidate Rand Paul (R-KY)

Rand Paul, a candidate in the Republican primary for Senate from Kentucky, had a meeting yesterday with the state's top Republican, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell -- following a gaffe in which Paul failed to commit to supporting McConnell for GOP leader.

The meeting came after Paul, an ophthalmologist and son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), made a gaffe in an interview this past weekend, when the ABC affiliate in Louisville asked whether he would support McConnell for Republican Leader, if given the choice of the very conservative Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC). "I like both of them and I don't know that I could make a judgement," Paul said at the time, adding: "I have to win the primary first. So I don't think I'd make a judgement on how I'd vote for leader, but I think obviously Kentucky having a leader is good for Kentucky."

Paul's opponent in the primary, Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson, has pounced on him for this. Paul apparently worked to undo the damage. "I have nothing but high compliments about his job as minority leader," he told reporters. "I have no reason not to support him."

"We had a very cordial conversation," Paul explained "I think it's probably better not to go into any detail about what we talked about."

TX-GOV

Poll: Perry Leads Hutchison In Texas Gubernatorial Primary

Eric Kleefeld | November 13, 2009, 10:24AM

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) and Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX)

A new Rasmussen poll of Texas has Gov. Rick Perry ahead in his Republican primary in 2010, in which he is being challenged by U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison.

The numbers: Perry 46%, Hutchison 35%, with a ±3.5% margin of error. Two months ago, when Hutchison had officially launched her campaign and was touring the state, she had a 40%-38% lead.

One key question should give Hutchison pause: "Should Kay Bailey Hutchison remain in her position as senator while she is running for Governor?" The answer here is Yes 60%, No 26%. Hutchison has indicated that she will resign from the Senate -- a move that could possibly be hurting her.

Tim Pawlenty

Poll: Minnesota Would Not Vote For Pawlenty For President

Eric Kleefeld | November 13, 2009, 9:53AM

Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN)

A new Rasmussen poll of Minnesota, where Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty is widely seen as a potential presidential candidate, finds that a plurality of likely voters in the state would not vote for him.

Respondents were asked: "Suppose Governor Tim Pawlenty runs for President in 2012 and wins the Republican nomination. If Pawlenty was the Republican Presidential candidate, would you vote for him?"

The numbers: Yes 42%, No 46%, with a ±3% margin of error. The poll also has Pawlenty's approval rating as governor at 52%, with 47% disapproval.

Minnesota has not voted Republican for president since the 1972 Nixon landslide. In 2008, it voted for Barack Obama by a 54%-44% margin.

Alan Grayson

Why Does The GOP Not Want Their Current Candidate Against Grayson?

Eric Kleefeld | November 12, 2009, 6:12PM

FL-08 Candidate Armando Gutierrez (R) and Rep. Alan Grayson (D)

The Republican efforts to find a candidate against the fiery liberal Democrat Alan Grayson continue -- with a focus on finding someone else besides the current de facto frontrunner, 28-year old real estate developer Armando Gutierrez. So what exactly is their problem with him?

Gutierrez, who comes from a politically well-connected family in the Miami Cuban community, has picked up some decent endorsements so far, including Rep. Tom Rooney (R-FL), several state legislators, and George P. Bush, the son of former Gov. Jeb Bush. However, other candidates could still get in -- state Rep. Kurt Kelly says he might get in if nobody better opts for it, and Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty, who previously shied away from the race, now says he's staying out "for now."

A Republican source told us that local GOPers aren't accepting Gutierrez, due to youth and inexperience, and the fact that he is seen as having moved into the Orlando district from Miami to buy the nomination. "A lot of people think you need an adult to contrast with Alan Grayson's childish behavior," the source said. "So let's be honest, Armando Gutierrez is 28 years old, and doesn't have much of a résumé in terms of creating jobs or influencing public policy or anything like that."

Read more »

Mark Kirk

Mark Kirk Denies Moving To The Right For Senate Race

Eric Kleefeld | November 12, 2009, 4:56PM

Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL)

Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL), a candidate for President Obama's former Senate seat in 2010, says he is not moving to the right in order to secure the GOP nomination -- but the Chicago Tribune sees some inconsistencies:

"I am a social moderate, fiscal conservative. But this is a big race, and we are building a broad coalition, and it will be, for a Republican candidacy, a center-right coalition," said Kirk, a five-term North Shore congressman who is seeking a promotion to the Senate next year. "But for me, I haven't changed my views."

Last week, a day after appearing noncommittal about getting Palin's support during a Chicago visit next week, Kirk wrote a memo seeking to get the conservative ex-governor to say something nice about him in the Senate race.

Another fun example would be when Kirk changed his position on the climate-change bill in the middle of his speech to a Republican audience -- and the crowd liked it.

MA-SEN

Pelosi Endorses Capuano In Massachusetts Senate Race

Eric Kleefeld | November 12, 2009, 1:42PM

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Rep. Mike Capuano (D-MA)

The Boston Phoenix reports that Speaker Nancy Pelosi will step into the Massachusetts special Senate election, endorsing Rep. Mike Capuano:

Capuano is considered a top Pelosi lieutenant -- he headed her transition team when the Democrats took the majority in 2006 and made her Speaker.

Nevertheless, it was unknown whether Pelosi would publicly endorse Capuano, against a woman opponent. Pelosi has been a strong advocate of increasing the number of women in elected office; Martha Coakley would be only the 18th woman in the current US Senate if elected.

A new Suffolk poll has state Attorney General Martha Coakley in the lead with 44% in the Democratic primary, which will be held on December 8, followed by Boston Celtics co-owner Steve Pagliuca with 17%, and Capuano at 16%.

Calls to Pelosi's office and Capuano's campaign were not returned.

Late Update: It's official, with the Capuano campaign putting out a press release. Pelosi praises Capuano's work in passing the health care bill through the House -- a subtle rebuke of Coakley's statements that she would have voted against the bill because of the Stupak Amendment, which has become a big issue in the race: "Saturday the House of Representatives passed a historic health care bill that was a great victory for the American People. Mike Capuano not only cast a courageous vote for this historic legislation, but was a constructive force in improving this bill and moving it to the Senate."

The full press release is available after the jump.

Read more »

NY-23

Owens' Margin Over Hoffman Narrows -- But His Win Does Not Appear In Serious Danger

Eric Kleefeld | November 12, 2009, 11:47AM

Conservative Party Candidate Doug Hoffman, Rep. Bill Owens (D-NY)

Could Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate who conceded the NY-23 special election last week, still end up pulling ahead and ejecting the newly sworn-in Democratic Rep. Bill Owens from office? The answer is that it's mathematically possible, but simply not likely in real terms.

The Syracuse Post-Standard reported that Owens' lead over Hoffman had shrunk from about 5,000 votes, as it was on election night when Hoffman conceded, to only 3,000 votes. With up to 10,000 absentee ballots to be counted, this left the possibility of Hoffman pulling ahead. Hoffman spokesman Rob Ryan admitted to Dave Weigel that the odds of such an upset were not too good: "Even if the margin had been 3,000 votes on election night, we would have conceded. We just might have done it later."

The most up to date numbers from the Watertown Daily Times show the picture even bleaker for Hoffman than that. With only 5,400 absentees left to count, Owens' lead is holding steady at 3,176. "Are they going to change the result? I don't know, I wouldn't bet the mortgage payment on it," Rob Ryan just told me. "But since this has been such a bizarre race, who the hell knows?"

Read more »

Michele Bachmann

Bachmann: 'I Agree' That Use Of Holocaust Images At Capitol Tea Party 'Wholly Inappropriate'

Eric Kleefeld | November 12, 2009, 11:03AM

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN)

Rep. Michele Bachmann's (R-MN) is now distancing herself from the use of Holocaust imagery at last week's Capitol Tea Party, which she had organized and promoted, after a Jewish Democratic Congressman called on her to apologize for leading the event and not denouncing the offending posters.

"Sadly, some individuals chose to marginalize tragic events in human history, such as the Holocaust, by invoking imagery and labels which have no purpose in a policy debate about health care," Bachmann said in a statement. "These regrettable actions negatively shift the focus of the current discussion on this issue. The American people deserve an open and honest debate to ensure the best possible solution to our health care problems, and I agree that these unfortunate instances are wholly inappropriate."

Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY) had said in a YouTube last week: ""I can't believe that Congresswoman Bachmann would stand where she stood, and see those images, and not have the common decency to say, 'I disagree with the use of those images.' I think that she owes the memory of those who perished in the Holocaust an apology. She owes us all an apology. And I'm waiting. We're all waiting."

(Via Dump Bachmann)

Late Update: Rep. Israel has released this statement, responding to Bachmann: "It shouldn't have taken peer pressure, media inquiries or national outrage to get Rep. Bachmann to take a stand in defense of Holocaust victims."

Joe Lieberman

Poll: Connecticut Voters See Lieberman As Being More Republican Than Democratic

Eric Kleefeld | November 12, 2009, 9:50AM

Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT)

The new Quinnipiac poll in Connecticut has an interesting result regarding Sen. Joe Lieberman: More voters see his policies as being close to the Republicans than close to the Democrats.

An outright majority 51% of Connecticut voters, say Lieberman's views are closer to the Republican Party, with only 25% saying his views are closer to the Democrats. It's an amazing journey that Lieberman has taken, from being the 2000 Dem nominee for Vice President, to losing his primary and being re-elected as an independent in 2006, and supporting the Republican nominee for president in 2008 and then continuing as a member of the Democratic caucus.

Lieberman's overall approval rating is 49%, with 44% disapproval. Among Republicans, his approval is 74%-20%, with Democrats against him by 31%-62%, and independents approving by 52%-40%.

The public is split on Lieberman's re-election in 2012, with 46% saying he deserves another term and 45% saying he does not. If he runs as a re-election, 20% say he should do so as a Republican, only 12% say he should be a Democrat, and 55% say he should continue as an independent. The margin of error is ±2.8%.

Olympia Snowe

Family Research Council PAC: We Would Support A Primary Against Olympia Snowe

Eric Kleefeld | November 11, 2009, 5:40PM

Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME)

I just spoke to Connie Mackey, president of the Family Research Council Action PAC, and she told me that if a conservative candidate were to emerge to run against Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) in the 2012 Republican primary, FRC Action will back them.

"Well of course there is an audience that would love to see Olympia Snowe out of office, within the ranks of social conservatives, that's for certain," said Mackey.

A new survey from Public Policy Polling (D) found that a generic conservative challenger would lead the moderate Snowe in a Republican primary by a whopping 59%-31% margin.

"I think a couple years ago, we wouldn't have thought it was possible," said Mackey. "However, those numbers are interesting, and I think those numbers might just track the fact that a lot of Americans are waking up to the liberal policies, what they mean and how they're playing out. And it may be affecting her, with her votes for the stimulus, and breaking from her party. And we would like to see a conservative have a chance to remove her from office up there."

Read more »

Stormy Daniels

Porn Star Stormy Daniels: 'I Have Nothing To Hide'

Eric Kleefeld | November 11, 2009, 5:10PM

Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) and Stormy Daniels

Porn star Stormy Daniels, who is running for U.S. Senate in Louisiana against incumbent Republican David Vitter, said in an interview with Marie Claire that she would provide a contrast to the hypocrisy of the incumbent, a family-values politician who was implicated in a prostitution scandal.

Q: Why shoot for the Senate?

A: I was drafted by a group called Draft Stormy, a grassroots movement in Louisiana that wanted someone who was the polar opposite of current senator David Vitter. They figured I would be perfect because I am open and honest about my sexuality, unlike Vitter. I realized that this is my chance to make a difference, to do something unselfish, noble, and to help a lot of people.

Q: You're referring to Senator Vitter's link to a Washington, D.C. escort service . . .

A: I'm not one to judge someone's sexual activity, but what annoys me is that he's so hard-core "family values," and he puts his wife and kids out there, saying he's a Christian family man. Then he's caught up in a prostitution scandal. He's a hypocrite.

Daniels also said that her career won't be a problem. "It's actually starting to work in my favor," she said. "I have nothing to hide. A sex tape of me isn't going to pop up and shame me; there are 150 of them at the video store."

Read more »

Tim Pawlenty

Pawlenty To Visit New Hampshire In December

Eric Kleefeld | November 11, 2009, 3:33PM

Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN)

Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN), a potential presidential candidate, will soon be visiting the major primary state of New Hampshire, the Union Leader reports.

Pawlenty will be the keynote speaker at a December 16 fundraiser for the New Hampshire GOP's state Senate campaign PAC. Tickets will be $50, an amount that was set in order to be affordable and "to attract people from all across the state," said local GOP strategist Michael Dennehy, who is advising the PAC.

Dennehy said that Pawlenty "would be a good, new fresh face for Republicans in New Hampshire to meet and to help raise money for the Republican cause."

Lindsey Graham

Lindsey Graham Censured By County GOP Organization In South Carolina

Eric Kleefeld | November 11, 2009, 2:42PM

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC)

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) is usually thought of as a loyal Republican in Washington -- but he has now been censured by a county Republican organization back home, for working too much with the Democrats.

The Charleston County GOP has censured Graham, citing his work with Democrats on a climate change bill as the final straw, and saying that he he has weakened the Republican brand.

County party chairwoman Lin Bennett says a similar resolution will introduced at the state GOP convention next year.

Graham need not have any immediate worries about a primary challenge. He was just re-elected last year, and won't on the ballot again until 2014.

Late Update: Greg Sargent has the full text of the censure resolution. It's fun reading, including its line about how "U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham - in the name of bipartisanship - continues to weaken the Republican brand and tarnish the ideals of freedom, rule of law, and fiscal conservatism."

Alan Grayson

Report: GOP Candidate Against Grayson Alienating Local Republicans

Eric Kleefeld | November 11, 2009, 12:57PM

FL-08 Candidate Armando Gutierrez (R) and Rep. Alan Grayson (D)

Republicans could still be having trouble with candidate recruitment against Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL), The Hill reports -- specifically, from local Republicans who are unhappy with the current de facto frontrunner for the nomination.

Grayson, of course, is the fiery liberal best known for saying the GOP's health care plan is for sick people to "die quickly," and who also called former Vice President Dick Cheney a vampire, and referred to a female lobbyist as a "K Street whore." Although Grayson represents a swing seat, Republicans have had trouble recruiting a top-tier challenger, with many potential recruits shying away.

Into the void has stepped Armando Gutierrez, a 28-year-old real estate developer who has moved to Orlando from Miami, in order to run for the seat. "He's pissing people off a lot," said an anonymous local GOP operative. "He's very pushy and is an unknown commodity, and people are jealously guarding their prerogatives."

Gutierrez brushed off the criticism. "As long as I keep getting calls and people want to meet me in Central Florida, I'm happy," said Gutierrez. "As long as that continues to happen, the momentum and the will of the people is going our way."

Senate '10

TPM's 2010 Senate Low-Down: Who's In Trouble And Who's Not

Eric Kleefeld | November 10, 2009, 6:38PM

Sens Harry Reid (D-NV) and Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

Looking ahead to the 2010 Senate races, when Democrats hope to expand their 60-seat supermajority and Republicans want to chip away at it, there are a whole bunch of competitive races on each side -- and with no immediately obvious sure bets for which seats might flip, a whole lot could happen.

In theory, the Democrats could expand their ranks even further, after two consecutive wave elections, for the reason that only one-third of the Senate is up at a given time. Thus, the Senators who are up in 2010 were shielded from the 2006 and 2008 Democratic waves, in which the Dems won nearly all the Senate races they could possibly take. To sweeten the deal for Democrats, more Republican-held seats are up in total than Democratic ones -- because 2004, when this Senate class was last up for election, was a Republican year.

A lot will depend on the national environment. In marginal cases, whether it's a Democratic or Republican year, and the extent of this, can make the difference for the candidates involved, and likely made the difference in some of those close races in 2004, 2006 and 2008.

Let's take a look at some of the top races.

Read more »

Franni Franken

Franni Franken Working To Defeat Bachmann -- And Becoming Friends With Bachmann, Too!

Eric Kleefeld | November 10, 2009, 4:00PM

Franni Franken, Rep. Michele Bachman (R-MN)

Sen. Al Franken's (D-MN) wife Franni has been taking an active role in his Senate office and in Minnesota politics, the Star-Tribune reports in a new profile of her -- and could be making some very unlikely friends along the way:

Franni Franken has also begun to explore the political side as well as the policy and will co-host a fundraiser this month for Tarryl Clark, a state senator seeking the DFL endorsement in a race to unseat Republican Rep. Michele Bachmann.

But when Franken found herself this summer sitting on an airplane next to Bachmann, the two bonded unexpectedly over a love of good deals and spent the plane ride swapping local bargain spots.

Olympia Snowe

Poll: Snowe Could Lose 2012 GOP Primary In Landslide To Conservative Challenger

Eric Kleefeld | November 10, 2009, 11:07AM

Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME)

A new survey of Maine from Public Policy Polling (D) has some dire news for Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME), with the moderate Republican potentially losing her 2012 Republican primary against a generic conservative challenger -- and by a landslide, no less.

The numbers: Conservative challenger 59%, Snowe 31%, with a ±4.8% margin of error. It is of course a long way from the idea of a generic conservative challenger to having an actual candidate, but the potential for success by just such an insurgent is certainly there.

Snowe's overall approval is 51%, to 36% disapproval. Democrats approve of her by 60%-29%, Republicans disapprove by 40%-46%, and independents approve by 51%-33%.

The pollster's analysis notes the importance of her vote for a health care bill in the Senate Finance Committee: "Snowe's numbers are steady with independents but down with both Democrats and Republicans compared to three weeks ago, an indication of the perilous political position she finds herself in. Republicans are mad at her for supporting any Democratic bill, while Democrats still are not completely happy with her because of her hesitance to support a public option."

CT-Gov

Connecticut Gov. Rell Not Running Again

Eric Kleefeld | November 9, 2009, 6:00PM

Gov. Jodi Rell (R-CT)

In a surprising piece of news, Gov. Jodi Rell (R-CT) announced today that she will not run for re-election in 2010.

Rell's Lt. Governor Michael Fedele, said that he will run for governor, and that Rell has committed to supporting him in the election.

Rell was previously Lt. Governor herself, and succeeded to the governorship in 2004 upon the resignation of Republican Gov. John Rowland, in a corruption scandal for which he later served prison time. Rell was easily elected to a full term in 2006, beating her Democratic opponent by 63%-35%.

Connecticut is a heavily Democratic state, but has not elected a Dem governor since 1986. The current field of active of potential Democratic candidates is a big one: Former state House Speaker Jim Amann, Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz, businessman and 2006 Senate nominee Ned Lamont, state Sen. Gary LeBeau, and Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy.

Senate '10

Who Will Be The Next Hoffmania Victim In 2010 -- Or The Next Hoffman?

Eric Kleefeld | November 9, 2009, 5:23PM

NY-23 Candidate Doug Hoffman (Conservative)

The NY-23 special election saw an amazing political phenomenon, with the right wing taking down a moderate Republican, as grassroots conservatives mobilize against a traditionally more cautious party establishment. So what are some other races out there?

We're not talking about any old crowded Republican primary -- for example, the fields right now in New Hampshire and Nevada are still taking shape -- though of course those races could potentially become Hoffmanized down the road. We're talking about races in which a push from the right can upset the balance of a race, pushing out an establishment-favored candidate due to insufficient conservatism.

Florida: Crist vs. Rubio
The Club For Growth, which heavily backed Hoffman, has made the Florida Senate race a new priority, endorsing the more conservative former state House Speaker Marco Rubio over moderate Gov. Charlie Crist, who had supported the stimulus and campaigned for it alongside President Obama. (Interestingly enough, Crist now says he didn't endorse the stimulus, but was simply working to get the best possible deal for Florida. The Rubio camp and his backers, as you can imagine, aren't taking that for an answer.)

Read more »

Health Care

A Closer Look At The Health Care Vote

Eric Kleefeld | November 9, 2009, 3:15PM

United States Capitol

Let's take a look at the breakdown of the vote on the health care bill -- the people who went against their leadership, or the people whose votes run seemingly counter to their districts' presidential votes in 2008 -- and in some cases, both.

Much has been made of the Democrats who voted no, and the fact that most of them come from districts that voted for John McCain. Thus, a vote against a major Obama policy initiative would certainly seem to be the safe thing to do -- just as Rep. Joseph Cao (R-LA) became the only Republican to vote yes, and his district voted 75% for Obama.

The single largest group, however, is one that hasn't been commented on very much: Republicans from districts that voted for Obama, and who voted no on the bill. There are 32 of them in all: Judy Biggert (IL); Brian Bilbray (CA); Mary Bono Mack (CA); Ken Calvert (CA); Dave Camp (MI); John Campbell (CA); Mike Castle (DE), currently a Senate candidate in an Obama state; Charlie Dent (PA); David Dreier (CA); Randy Forbes (VA); Elton Gallegly (CA); Jim Gerlach (PA); a candidate for governor in an Obama state; Mark Kirk (IL), a Senate candidate in Obama's home state; Leonard Lance (NJ); Tom Latham (IA), Frank LoBiondo (NJ), Dan Lungren (CA), Donald Manzullo (IL); Thaddeus McCotter (MI); Buck McKeon (CA); Erik Paulsen (MN); Tom Petri (WI); Dave Reichert (WA); Mike Rogers (MI); Peter Roskam (IL); Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL); Paul Ryan (WI); Lee Terry (NE); Patrick Tiberi (OH); Fred Upton (MI); Frank Wolf (VA); and Bill Young (FL).

Read more »

NV-SEN

Lowden Facing Opposition From Group Of Ron Paul Supporters In Nevada GOP Senate Primary

Eric Kleefeld | November 9, 2009, 1:49PM

Sue Lowden, GOP Senate candidate in Nevada

Sue Lowden, a former Nevada GOP chair and currently a candidate for Senate, could face an interesting obstacle in her quest for the party's nomination to go up against Democratic Senator Majority Leader Harry Reid, the Reno Gazette-Journal reports -- Ron Paul supporters.

A new group called the Fair Nevada Elections PAC, run by nuclear science consultant and Paul-supporter Robert Holloway, contends that Lowden unfairly used her position to prevent Paul delegates from being chosen at the state convention last year. "Sue Lowden basically stole the election for John McCain," said Holloway, a very strong charge to say the least. "We need to elect people who have respect for law and order, and our electoral process."

Lowden spokesman Robert Uithoven fired back, saying that Lowden had in fact allowed Paul to speak at the state convention, and had promoted his appearances around the state. "I think some people want to get stuck reliving the 2008 election cycle," said Uithoven.

Lowden is running in a contested primary against Danny Tarkanian, a former UNLV basketball player.

Joseph Cao

Club For Growth: Challenging Cao In GOP Primary 'Would Be A Waste Of Money' For His District

Eric Kleefeld | November 9, 2009, 1:21PM

Rep. Joseph Cao (R-LA)

Rep. Joseph Cao (R-LA) may have an interesting built-in line of defense against Republicans who would want to seek retribution over his vote for the health care bill: His overwhelmingly Democratic district.

I asked Club For Growth executive director David Keating, whose group has often supported insurgent conservatives -- Marco Rubio, Pat Toomey, Stephen Laffey and Doug Hoffman, just to name a few -- whether the group might support a primary against Cao. "Our PAC doesn't plan on backing any primary challengers to him," said Keating, "because it would be a waste of money, probably, for the general election."

Cao's district, centered around New Orleans, voted 75%-23% for Barack Obama in November 2008, by far the most Democratic district to be currently represented by a Republican. Cao won a shocking 50%-47% victory in a specially scheduled December election (due to hurricane damage) against Democratic Rep. William Jefferson, who was then under indictment and was later convicted on corruption charges.

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CA-SEN

Poll: Fiorina And DeVore Tied In California

Eric Kleefeld | November 9, 2009, 12:28PM

CA-SEN Republican candidates Chuck DeVore and Carly Fiorina

A new Los Angeles Times poll finds a tie in the California Republican Senate primary, with former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and state Rep. Chuck DeVore at 27% each, for the right to go up against Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer.

A whopping 40% of Republican primary voters were undecided, plus 4% who refused to answer and 2% who said they preferred another candidate. The take-away from this poll is that both candidates have a long way to go in building up their respective name identifications.

Expect both candidates to tout the big-name conservatives who are supporting them. DeVore is running an antiestablishment campaign, and has the endorsement of Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC). Fiorina has the backing of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Minority Whip Jon Kyl (R-AZ), Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) -- for whom Fiorina had been a campaign surrogate during the 2008 presidential election - as well as the conservative hero Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK). (The NRSC itself is not backing Fiorina, but the endorsement of the top leaders in the caucus is a pretty strong statement.)

Tim Pawlenty

Tim Pawlenty To Iowa GOP: 'Thank You, Lord, For My Red-Hot, Smokin' Wife'

Eric Kleefeld | November 9, 2009, 10:03AM

Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN)

Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) spoke to the Iowa Republican Party last night, and thanked God for his blessings in life.

"Thank you, Lord, for my red-hot, smokin' wife," said Pawlenty -- a quote from the movie Talladega Nights, a Will Ferrell comedy about an idiotic NASCAR driver.

"I think she appreciates that line. I talked to her about it and she's OK with it," Pawlenty later told a reporter. "She knows it's in fun. I mean it sincerely, I think she is hot."

Late Update: Here's the video:

Joseph Cao

Who Is Joseph Cao?

Eric Kleefeld | November 8, 2009, 12:01AM

Rep. Joseph Cao (R-LA)

So who is Rep. Joseph Cao (R-LA), the one Republican who voted yes on the House Democrats' health care bill?

Cao was first elected to Congress in 2008 from the solidly-Democratic New Orleans district, winning a shocking victory against Democratic Rep. William Jefferson, who was then under indictment (and was later convicted) on corruption charges. Over the course of his life, he was a child refugee from Vietnam, a former Jesuit seminarian, and an attorney.

Cao's district voted 75%-23% for Barack Obama in 2008, but Cao was able to beat Jefferson in a December election (held at that time because of the rescheduling of some Louisiana Congressional elections, due to a hurricane). Cao had held out on voting for this bill -- he is strongly pro-life and wanted full assurances that abortion would not be funded -- but his vote for final passage, after the passage of the Stupak Amendment, could give him a positive card to play with his Democratic constituents.

Ironically, right after Cao was elected, the House GOP boasted of his upset win as a sign of the GOP's comeback, and that he presented a path to future victories. House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) declared: "The Future Is Cao."