
When the House GOP's enormous freshman class arrived on Capitol Hill in January, it wasn't uncommon to hear them sound off on the mistakes their predecessors made in 1995. Despite having shut down the government -- twice! -- House Republicans under Newt Gingrich had caved too easily, didn't push hard enough, didn't embody the true spirit of conservatism.
But the new House leadership wasn't so sanguine. Many had lived through the Gingrich revolution and its aftermath. Others had been around long enough to hear tales of it. And so they mapped out a strategy specifically designed to avoid what they believe were the party's '90s-era mistakes.
In other words, the two factions -- the newly energized backbenchers and the veteran leadership -- were pulling each other in opposite directions. The tug of war left the House GOP's strategic center of gravity stuck in an unstable position. The party was committed to fighting as hard as possible, but stopping short of its most conservative members' slash and burn instincts.
The 2011 version of the House GOP, in not always easy coordination with Senate Republicans, would approve must-pass bills, but only after dragging negotiations down to the wire and extracting as many concessions as possible from Senate Dems and the White House each time. We saw that strategy play out over and over again this year, with mixed results for both parties and largely poor results for the country at large.
Here's a quick lookback at a year of living dangerously -- and the series of recurring crises that it produced.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Congressional Republicans haven't gotten over the last government shutdown fight -- perhaps because it wasn't a clear win. They're probing FEMA's accounting practices in the last week of September, suggesting the agency manipulated its disaster relief fund to help Democrats avoid a political fight with Republicans. But FEMA officials were on the record, both publicly and in private briefings with members of both parties, about the tools they were using to keep themselves in the black through the fiscal year. So what's this really all about?
Recall that the September government shutdown fight centered on the GOP's demand that there should be matching budget cuts to make up for funneling emergency money to FEMA's disaster relief fund.
FEMA originally expected the account to be drained a few days before the end of the fiscal year on September 30. To keep its operations across the country in motion Congress was prepared to appropriate the agency $1 billion in bridge money to carry it into October...except for that pesky disagreement about offsets! Republicans insisted on paying for it by nixing a popular and effective hybrid vehicle incentive. Democrats refused, both on principle and because the specific manufacturing program on the chopping block was a successful one. Neither party was prepared to cave. But with the deadline only days away, FEMA moved aggressively to shore up its fund and announced it could get by without any emergency help from Congress and the shutdown was averted.
Republicans say something fishy was going on.
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The government won't shut down this week over a dispute between Republicans and Democrats over whether emergency supplemental funds to support disaster relief should be offset with budget cuts.
And when the new fiscal year starts October 1, disaster relief funds will not need to be offset pursuant to an agreement the parties struck as part of the August debt ceiling deal. That's why the $2.65 billion for FEMA's disaster relief fund the Senate just passed didn't have to be offset, and the House is expected to pass the same bill without putting up another fight.
But what happens if things get really bad: if assessments of damage from Hurricane Irene and the fires in Texas turn out to be much worse than expected, or if another unforeseen disaster strikes a major city. Does the debt ceiling deal provide an unlimited guarantee that House Republicans won't try once again to pair disaster funding with partisan budget cuts?
The answer is no.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Here's a story that's delighting Democrats.
"House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-7th, is pushing for information on the status of Gov. Bob McDonnell's request for federal disaster assistance for Louisa County residents in the wake of an earthquake there last month," reports the Richmond Times-Dispatch.
On Friday, Cantor held a conference call with Federal Emergency Management Agency and Louisa County officials. A readout of the call provided by Cantor's office indicates that he asked FEMA officials about the timeline and process for determining whether the agency would grant federal assistance. 'FEMA said they have received the Governor's request and sent it to the White House for a decision but could not provide any specific information on timing," the readout said. "Even when asked for an estimate based on past applications they were unable to do so.'
Clearly it's a bit rich that Cantor is trying to make sure disaster relief funds get to his district as quickly as possible given that he was perhaps the key actor in the Capitol Hill showdown which threatened to halt all of FEMA's activities.
There's another implication here, though, that Cantor may ultimately be responsible for the delay. If he'd just said nothing -- never insisted for emergency supplemental funds for disaster relief be offset -- then disaster aid wouldn't have gotten mired in a budget fight, and the funds might have been easier to come by.
In multiple discussions, no executive branch officials would confirm that these issues were related, suggesting that if there's a funding delay in Cantor's district it isn't the result of the recent skirmish on Capitol Hill.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Word comes from the Democratic Whip's office that the House of Representatives will quietly extend government funding on Tuesday, and then again, for a longer stretch, when the House returns from recess next week.
No muss, no fuss. Though House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) will lose a big chunk of his caucus on the vote, the fight, for all intents and purposes, appears to be over.
On the Senate floor Monday night, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell called the whole exercise a "fire drill [that] was completely unnecessary."
But a Senate Democratic aide suggests McConnell knew full well who'd caused the fire drill, and it wasn't Democrats.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Democrats are hoping Republicans' more conciliatory spirit displayed Monday night to avert a government shutdown over disaster aid is a sign of shifting political winds after August's debt showdown that resulted in Standard & Poor downgrading the nation's creditworthiness.
After the vote last night to fund the Federal Emergency Management Agency through November, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) told TPM he hopes the Senate's agreement to pass a compromise bill sends a message to Tea Party House GOP members that the do-or-die brinkmanship has got to go.
"I think we were less close to the precipice this time," he said. "I think there was a little bit more anxiety on the part of the GOP to go there, and I hope it sends a message back to the House and the Tea Party that the Senate is not going to be amenable to this stuff anymore."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The threat of a government shutdown, and the possibility that FEMA will run out of money this week, will both be averted, thanks to some clever accounting and the GOP's lack of will to keep holding disaster relief funds hostage to budget cuts.
On the Senate floor late Monday, Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) announced an agreement by which the Senate (and presumably the House) can dispense with all the sturm und drang about offsetting disaster aid and pass legislation that will keep the entire government -- including FEMA -- open after September.
The measure passed 79-12.
What ultimately broke the impasse was FEMA's announcement Monday that it won't run out of funds early this week -- a presumption House Republicans had hoped would force Senate Democrats to accept a partisan budget cut, on the threat that disaster victims would otherwise be deprived of assistance for days or even weeks.
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The food fight between the parties continues. But Democrats see a way out of the latest government shutdown fight -- it's just a question of timing, and, of course, Republican cooperation.
Earlier Monday, we learned that FEMA's disaster relief fund had a bit more money in it than officials expected it would late last week. It's possible, even, that the agency will be able to make it through September 30 (the end of the fiscal year) without needing an emergency cash injection.
If it can, then the grounds for this fight disappear. Here's why:
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)A key reason Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) delayed a vote on legislation to fund the government and re-up FEMA's disaster relief account until Monday is that, as of last week, FEMA was set to run out of funds late Monday or Tuesday. Schedule a vote so close to the deadline, and it focuses peoples' minds (Republicans, specifically) on just how reckless their political tactics are.
But it turns out FEMA's got a bit more money than expected, and may be able to hold out until Thursday or Friday, according to a Department of Homeland Security aide. And that changes both the policy urgency of the ongoing government shutdown fight, and legislative politics more broadly on Capitol Hill.
As of today, FEMA has $114 million in its disaster relief account. Divide that by the agency's daily burn rate, and it looks like FEMA will be in the black until Thursday.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Republican and Democratic leaders on Capitol Hill were supposed to spend the weekend breaking an impasse over emergency disaster assistance that threatens not just to cripple FEMA but also to shut down the entire government.
According to a top congressional source, they've gotten nowhere, with both parties unwilling to cave. But one eventually must.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Harry Reid has an offer for John Boehner and Senate Republicans to keep FEMA's disaster relief efforts funded and avoid a government shutdown. It goes like this: Democrats will accept the House GOP's lower funding total disaster aid, if Republicans drop the extraordinary demand that funding recovery from natural disasters be offset with partisan budget cuts.
Republicans now say the only way to keep the entire government funded after September 30 is if Democrats agree to slash a successful manufacturing program to pay for disaster aid included in the House's federal funding bill.
Speaking for his caucus at a Friday press conference, Reid categorically rejected the idea disaster aid should be offset. After the Senate rejected that proposal on a bipartisan basis, Reid urged Boehner to sit down with himself, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi to review his offer, in the hope of avoiding a government shutdown. And he said if House Republicans continue intransigently to demand that the Senate swallow their bill, President Obama will call the House back into session from its week-long recess.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)By a bipartisan vote of 59-36 Friday, Senate Democrats and several Republicans tabled (read: effectively killed) House-passed legislation to fund the federal government beyond September 30. The development escalates a new round of brinkmanship with disaster aid for FEMA and a government shutdown at stake.
Democrats are enraged by a provision of the GOP legislation, which holds disaster aid hostage to partisan budget cuts.
They're also unhappy with the amount of disaster relief money House Republicans included in their bill. Last week, the Senate passed legislation on a bipartisan basis that provided FEMA about twice as much disaster aid as the House bill, without requiring any offsets.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) will have to choose quickly between caving to House Republicans and fighting back. At stake are relief funds for victims of natural disasters across the country and potentially a government shutdown.
In the wee hours of Friday morning, House Republicans passed divisive legislation that would avoid a government shutdown at the end of September. But it includes a provision that erects a new, controversial standard: emergency disaster relief funds must be offset by cutting federal programs the House minority likes.
Democrats are prepared to cut a deal on the amount of disaster aid Congress should provide FEMA. But they're dead set against the concept of offsetting, and the particular offset the GOP chose: a hybrid vehicle manufacturing incentive that's proven to create jobs.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)House Republicans closed ranks just after midnight on Friday morning, and passed legislation to avert a government shutdown at the end of the month. The vote tally was 219-203.
But the bill received almost no Democratic support and faces an uncertain future in the U.S. Senate because Republicans have used the funding bill as a vehicle for disaster relief money, and insisted it be paid for by slashing funds for jobs programs Democrats support. Dems say the GOP legislation provides insufficient aid, and sets a dangerous precedent by requiring those funds to be offset with partisan budget cuts.
"The bill the House will vote on tonight is not an honest effort at compromise," said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) in a statement anticipating its passage. "It fails to provide the relief that our fellow Americans need as they struggle to rebuild their lives in the wake of floods, wildfires and hurricanes, and it will be rejected by the Senate."
A livid Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) told reporters Thursday night "We're fed up with this...we're sick of it, we're tired of it."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)We should know tonight whether Congress is in genuinely the throes of another government shutdown fight, or whether Democrats and Republicans will figure out a way to avoid their impulses.
Instead of cutting a deal with Democrats to keep the government funded, and re-up FEMA's disaster aid fund, House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) is trying to build support by dangling carrots before reluctant Republicans and whacking Democrats with sticks.
As reported, about four dozen House conservatives don't support the existing government funding bill or "continuing resolution" because it does not, in their minds, slash enough money from federal programs. Democrats oppose the bill en masse because it also includes a requirement that federal disaster aid be twinned with cuts to particular federal programs, in order to offset the cost -- a highly unusual, and controversial requirement
Looks like House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) will try to close GOP ranks around existing legislation to fund the government rather than scrap a controversial requirement that disaster relief funds be offset with an unrelated budget cut. And that means they'll be moving ahead without Democratic support -- a risky gamble that could lead to a government shutdown if it fails.
"The Speaker's seeking more Republican votes," Rep. Jeff Flake (R-AZ), who led a House conservative rebellion on Wednesday, told reporters after an impromptu Thursday GOP meeting.
According to other Republicans, Boehner will swap out the existing disaster relief offset -- a hybrid vehicle manufacturing incentive -- with new cuts.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)To avoid a government shutdown -- and he wants to avoid a government shutdown -- House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) -- has three options. He can move in the Democrats' direction, and scrap a requirement that disaster relief funds be offset with a partisan budget cut; he can move in the direction of House conservatives and cut more deeply into federal programs -- which would violate a July deal he struck with Democrats; or he can convince those wary conservatives to hold their noses and vote for the federal funding legislation that failed on Wednesday evening.
At a Thursday press conference in the Capitol, Boehner made his preference clear.
House conservatives, he said, "can vote 'no' but what they're in essence doing is they're voting to spend more money. Because that's exactly what will happen."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)House Dem leadership is urging all caucus members to oppose the Republican legislation to continue funding the government past September 30 on the grounds that it cuts a popular manufacturing program to pay for federal disaster aid.
"Democratic Members are urged to vote NO on the previous question and the bill -- as disasters are an emergency and we should not have to cut good-paying American jobs to provide essential disaster relief for families, small businesses, and communities," reads a memo from Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi's office.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Senate Democrats want all eyes on the 10 Republicans, from disaster-affected states, who voted last week for a nearly $7 billion emergency bill to re-up FEMA's relief account. They hold the key to whether or how not just FEMA, but the entire United States government will be funded after its current appropriations lapse at the end of the month.
As noted extensively Tuesday, the questions of how and by what amount to provide disaster relief are the only obstacles to passing legislation to keep the federal lights on into the fall. Senate Democrats (and presumably these 10 Republicans) want to significantly bolster FEMA's account, and do so without arguing over budget cuts to offset the cost.
House Republicans are offering up about half as much, and only on the condition that the funds be matched by nixing a $1.5 billion hybrid vehicle manufacturing incentive. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) says he's not backing down. When the House sends the Senate its government funding bill Reid's going to force a vote on an amendment to swap out the House's FEMA provision with his own.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) insisted Tuesday that Democrats will not back down in their disagreement with Republicans over how much disaster relief money to provide FEMA and therefore that the threat of a government shutdown is very real.
House Republicans and Senate Democrats are at odds over a provision in legislation to avoid a government shutdown to provide relief to disaster-stricken parts of the country. Democrats are pushing for several billion additional dollars in disaster relief, and are livid over GOP insistence that these funds be offset (specifically with a controversial budget cut to a hybrid vehicle program.)
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The more Republicans and Democrats insist they're not interested in another government shutdown fight, the more they show themselves to be fighting their impulses.
Now, two of the top Republicans in the House say the Senate has little choice but to pass their federal funding bill -- including its controversial disaster relief provision -- or risk a shutdown, and a lapse in government services for people in need of help from FEMA.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has said he'll send legislation to avoid a shutdown back to the House, with additional disaster relief money, and no controversial spending cuts, and dare Republicans to vote it down. They may very well do that that.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-MD) says Democrats may withhold their support for House legislation to fund the government if Republicans insist on pairing disaster relief with partisan budget cuts.
If Democrats vote against the funding bill en masse, it could leave House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) shy of the votes needed to pass the legislation, and force him to cut a deal on the Democrats' terms. Because if the impasse isn't bridged by the end of the month, the government will shut down.
"My presumption is they will offer a [funding bill] which has that offset in it and I think Democrats will be loath to support that effort," Hoyer told reporters at his weekly Capitol briefing.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Funding for the federal government runs out at the end of the month and Congress is set to adjourn for recess at the end of the week. That means the House and Senate have to come to terms in a matter of days over legislation to keep the lights on.
There's just one problem: they disagree about how much to re-up FEMA's disaster fund. House Republicans want to provide FEMA with $1 billion in emergency funds (fully offset by cutting a program to incentivize the production of hybrid vehicles) and $2.65 billion as a down payment of sorts on FEMA's annual disaster funding. The Senate passed stand-alone legislation last week to provide FEMA nearly $7 billion.
On the Senate floor Tuesday morning, Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) said he will keep pushing the issue.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Two separate but related Republican efforts are increasing the odds that the government will shut down at the end of September, despite repeated assurances from both GOP and Democratic leaders that neither party has an appetite for another round of brinksmanship.
In a Thursday letter, over 50 House Republicans, led by Rep. Jeff Flake (R-AZ), pushed Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) to make steep cuts to discretionary spending in the next fiscal year, reneging on the agreement the parties struck to resolve the debt limit standoff. That legislation set a cap on discretionary spending at $1.043 trillion and both Boehner and House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) are committed to funding the government at that level for the coming year.
But many House conservatives want to go lower, and if they defect then House Democrats will have to pitch in to make sure it passes and avert a shut down.
There's just one problem.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The White House late Friday afternoon sent its request to Congress for $500 million in immediate relief to help the victims of Hurricane Irene and other recent disasters and avoid running out of response funds before the end of the month.
The request was just a small portion of the total $5.1 billion the President asked for in order to fill the coffers of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which has become so strained for funds that it has put longer-term building projects on hold in order to ensure enough money remains for victims of Irene.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Hey, if a hurricane hits another part of the country, that's not your problem, right? Apparently, that view is more widely held than one might think.
In the days before Hurricane Irene ravaged the east coast, Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA) floated the idea that disaster aid from the federal government should be offset with spending cuts in a similar way to the GOP demands on the debt ceiling deal. The idea, though pretty consistent orthodoxy from Cantor, was loudly criticized, but Cantor doubled down. And a new poll out on Wednesday from Rasmussen shows a surprising amount of support for that very position.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)This isn't the sort of headline and lead paragraph you want to read in the local paper if you're a freshman House member in a marginal district: "Hayworth seeking to withhold disaster money unless it is offset by budget cuts: Only days after a record-setting storm destroyed her district, Rep. Nan Hayworth and her House colleagues threatened to withhold disaster money if lawmakers don't cut additional spending from the federal budget."
But that's exactly what the New York freshman woke up to this morning after saying she would only vote to replenish FEMA's disaster relief fund if the money is offset with spending cuts elsewhere in the budget, according to the paper. Her constituents, and officials in her district, don't want to hear about conditions -- even Republicans.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Faced with growing criticism Tuesday, including from members of his own party, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) appeared to soften, slightly, his general view that federal disaster relief should be offset with equal or greater budget cuts.
He told the Richmond Times-Dispatch, that relief funds would not get bogged down in the sort of protracted budget fight that has dominated Congressional politics all year. His spokesman Brad Dayspring, in a statement to several reporters, echoed this. "People and families affected by these disasters will certainly get what they need from their federal government," he said. "The goal should be to find ways to pay for what is needed or to find offsets whenever possible, that is the responsible thing to do. Clearly when disasters and emergencies happen, people expect their government to treat them as national priorities and respond properly. People also expect their government to spend their dollars wisely, and to make efforts to prioritize and save when possible."
That will come as welcome news to victims and FEMA alike, if it turns out that they need Congress to pass emergency legislation in the aftermath of Hurricane Irene.
Mark Merritt, a former senior FEMA official in the Clinton administration said these kinds of budget impasses can be a big drag in a disaster management situation.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Over the last few years in the hotly contested debate over Congress' ability to direct money to pet projects in their district, advocates of the practice, known as earmarking, have repeatedly argued that eliminating earmarks would only amount to a drop in the deficit bucket and have no real impact on overall spending.
The details of the deal to avert a government shutdown go a long way in undermining that point as the government is saving $10 billion by eliminating money usually set aside for earmark spending, including $630 million for so-called earmarks to nowhere, money for earmarks that has never been spent.
The latest measure that funds the government through the end of September even slashes $4.2 billion in Department of Defense earmarks, once a sacred cow of senior lawmakers on Capitol Hill.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)President Obama has put the Federal Emergency Management Agency on high-alert to help Hawaii and other coastal areas in the United States and its territories that could be affected after a massive, 8.9 magnitude earthquake hit 80 miles off the coast of Japan Friday morning triggering a devastating Tsunami.
Hawaii and the Pacific Basin except the mainland United States and Canada are bracing themselves for the worst Friday morning, according to the U.S. Pacific Tsunami Warning Center. Hawaii is under an order to evacuate all coastal areas, including all of Honolulu and its famed tourist hub, Waikiki beach.

