FL-SEN

GOPer Haridopolos Suddenly Drops Out Of Florida Senate Race

Eric Kleefeld | July 18, 2011, 11:16AM

Florida State Senate President Mike Haridopolos (R)

The Republican field in Florida to take on Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson just got shaken up, with state Senate President Mike Haridopolos, a frontrunner in the race, suddenly dropping out after previously strong (but diminishing) fundraising.

The St. Petersburg Times reports: "In an increasingly crowded race to unseat Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson, Haridopolos' campaign showed signs of stalling. Just last week came news that political adviser Pat Bainter was leaving the campaign along with de facto campaign manager and spokesman, Tim Baker."

Haridopolos previously led in the money race, taking in $2.5 million in the first quarter. However, his fundraising in the second quarter dropped sharply to $900,000, followed by former Sen. George LeMieux (who was appointed by then-Republican Gov. Charlie Crist in 2009, and did not seek a full term, before Crist became an independent) at $900,000, followed by former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner at $560,000.

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Cap-and-Trade

Republican Senate Candidate Attacks Opponent For Supporting Cap-And-Trade Plan HE Helped Write

Brian Beutler | June 9, 2011, 2:22PM

Updated 6:45 p.m.

Republican Senate candidate Adam Hasner is attacking one of his primary opponents by linking him to a stalled cap-and-trade climate change law in Florida. That may sound like par for the course in GOP politics except for one small problem: Hasner co-sponsored that bill, and praised it publicly when it passed the state legislature.

In a press release attacking Republican candidate George Lemieux -- who already served in the Senate in an interim capacity after Sen. Mel Martinez (R-FL) resigned -- Hasner tied his opponent to a cap-and-trade initiative spearheaded by former Governor Charlie Crist.

Like many Republicans, though, Hasner knows a thing or two about supporting cap and trade in the pre-Obama era.

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Paul Ryan

WATCH: Radio Host Cuts Off GOP Senate Candidate After He Dodges Questions On Ryan Budget

Benjy Sarlin | June 1, 2011, 1:26PM

Senate Candidate Mike Haridopolos (R-FL)

Mike Haridopolos, a Republican running for Senate in Florida, got so tangled up in answering a question the Paul Ryan budget in a radio interview that the host dropped his call mid-show.

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Connie Mack

Connie Mack Not Running For Senate After All

Jillian Rayfield | March 25, 2011, 10:13AM

Rep. Connie Mack (R-FL)

Rep. Connie Mack (R-FL) announced today that he is not making a bid for Bill Nelson's (D) senate seat, despite being widely expected to run.

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FL-SEN

Rep. Connie Mack Making 'Major Announcement' Tomorrow About Possible Bill Nelson Challenge

Jillian Rayfield | March 24, 2011, 5:33PM

Rep. Connie Mack (R-FL)

Rep. Connie Mack (R-FL) is scheduled to make a "major announcement regarding the U.S. Senate race" tomorrow morning in Florida, and is expected to announce that he will make a bid for Sen. Bill Nelson's (D) seat.

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Senate '12

Poll: Bill Nelson Looking Vulnerable in 2012 Reelection Bid

Jon Terbush | February 15, 2011, 11:58AM

Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R)

Former governor Jeb Bush (R) may have no intention of running for president, but if he decides to hop in the Senate race in Florida, he looks poised to knock off incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson (D), according to a new Mason-Dixon poll.

In the poll, the former Florida governor led Nelson by an eight-points margin, 49% to 41%. That lead is up slightly from the five-point gap shown in a survey of the race conducted in late December.

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2012 elections

Poll: Jeb Bush Leads Bill Nelson In Hypothetical FL-SEN Race

Jon Terbush | December 21, 2010, 4:47PM

Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R)

Jeb Bush may not be considering a return to elective politics, but if he were, a Senate seat could well be within his reach.

In a PPP poll released today, Bush was the only Republican to lead Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) in theoretical 2012 matchups. The poll found that 49% of respondents said they would vote for Bush if he ran for the seat, while 44% said they would vote for Nelson.

Rep. Connie Mack was the only other candidate tested in the survey to come within single digits of Nelson, polling just eight points behind, 44% to 36%. Sen. George LeMieux -- who was appointed to fill the Senate seat vacated by Mel Martinez in 2009, but who did not seek reelection this year -- trailed Nelson 47% to 36%, while Florida Senate President Mike Haridopolos polled 12 points behind Nelson, 44% to 32%. Against State Rep. Adam Hasner, Nelson led 46% to 30% in the poll.

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FL-SEN

Republican Marco Rubio Cruises To Victory In Florida Senate Race

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 2, 2010, 8:02PM

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)

Marco Rubio, who has actually been compared to a young Barack Obama by excited Republicans, has ascended to the U.S. Senate from the state of Florida. Rubio has handily defeated both Gov. Charlie Crist, the independent candidate, and Rep. Kendrick Meek, the Democrat -- a three-way sweep that quite literally is the stuff GOP dreams are made of.

With 649 of 6,881 precincts reporting, Rubio leads Crist and Meek 51.6-28.9-19.5. CNN and Fox News have called the race for Rubio.

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FL-SEN

Crist Adviser: He Would Caucus With The Dems In The Senate

Eric Kleefeld | October 29, 2010, 5:58PM

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist

Everyone knows that Republican Marco Rubio is ahead in the polls for the Florida Senate race, helped in part by a split in the anti-GOP vote between independent (and ex-GOPer) Charlie Crist and Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek. Crist has often refused to say for certain which party he would caucus with if he were elected. But as the Wall Street Journal an adviser to Crist says that he would caucus with the Dems if he were to win the election:

That's a big "if." Mr. Crist is trailing Republican candidate Marco Rubio in most polls. But the declaration by Florida trial lawyer John Morgan sheds light on one of the many mysteries in the Bill Clinton-Charlie Crist-Kendrick Meek imbroglio.

"Crist is going to caucus with the Democrats," Mr. Morgan said. "I don't think there's any ifs, ands or buts about it. It would be, in a very tight year, almost like a Democratic pickup in a solid Republican state."

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FL-SEN

Kendrick Meek Explains It All: I Never, Ever Agreed To Drop Out (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 29, 2010, 10:14AM

Kendrick Meek did talk to Bill Clinton about dropping his Democratic bid to be the next Senator from Florida, a move that supporters of the plan say would have opened up an opportunity for independent Charlie Crist to catch Republican Marco Rubio's rising star before Election Day. But Meek insists he did not agree to drop out of the race, ever, as Clintonistas told Ben Smith at Politico and many, many other reporters yesterday.

That is the takeaway from Meek's round of TV appearances this morning, and it is the story as Meek is telling it. Team Clinton did not respond to my requests for comment on Meek's take last night.

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FL-SEN

Democrat Meek Denies Agreeing To Clinton-Arranged Deal To Drop FL-SEN Bid And Endorse Charlie Crist

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 28, 2010, 8:10PM

Marco Rubio, Charlie Crist, and Kendrick Meek at a Florida Senate debate

An explosive new story from Politico's Ben Smith has led to some serious sniping between the two men trailing Republican Marco Rubio in the Florida Senate race. Smith reports that Bill Clinton orchestrated a deal with Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek (the guy currently running a distant third to Rubio) to drop out of the race and endorse independent candidate Charlie Crist, the guy running second.

The deal could have given Crist a real shot at beating Rubio and, therefore, moderates and Democrats a chance at stopping Rubio's rapid rise in the GOP. Rubio has been a conservative darling of the GOP ever since he pushed Crist out of the Republican primary and into his current independent bid. Most say Rubio will be a major player on the Republican scene if, as polls currently suggest, he cruises to victory Tuesday.

All that could have been different if Clinton's deal had happened. But, as Smith reports it, after first warming to the idea of dropping out -- things went so far that a unity rally was planned for Oct. 26 -- Meek "lost his enthusiasm for the arrangement, spurred in part...by his wife's belief that he could still win the race."

Now comes the sniping. Crist confirms Smith's account of things. Meek says it's not true. That's led to a new war of words between the two men while Rubio continues his march toward certain victory.

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FL-SEN

Quinnipiac Poll: Crist Only Down 7 In FL-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | October 28, 2010, 2:31PM

FL Sen candidates Kendrick Meek (D), Charlie Crist (I), and Marco Rubio (R)

A new Quinnipiac poll of the Florida Senate race suggests independent Gov. Charlie Crist is not trailing Republican nominee Marco Rubio by as much as other recent polls would have you believe.

The three-way matchup finds Crist down seven points to Rubio, 42%-35%, with Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek polling at 15%. When Quinnipiac last polled this contest on October 10, the Governor was down a more significant 14 points, 44%-30%, with Meek earning 22%.

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Sunday Shows

The Sunday Show Line-Ups

Eric Kleefeld | October 22, 2010, 2:13PM

Marco Rubio, Charlie Crist, and Kendrick Meek at a Florida Senate debate

Here are the line-ups for the Sunday talk shows this weekend:

• ABC, This Week: DNC Chairman Tim Kaine, Retired Army Gen. Hugh Shelton

• CBS, Face The Nation: Karl Rove, DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen (D-MD).

• CNN, State Of The Union: Florida Senate candidates Marco Rubio (R), Kendrick Meek (D), Charlie Crist (I).

• Fox News Sunday: Senate candidate Pat Toomey (R-PA), Senate candidate Joe Manchin (D-WV).

• NBC, Meet The Press: RNC Chairman Michael Steele.

Charlie Crist

Already Low On Support, Charlie Crist Now Low On Cash

Marc Kilstein | October 21, 2010, 4:02PM

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist

Things are not looking good for independent Gov. Charlie Crist in the Florida Senate race. He trails significantly in the polls and is splitting support with Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek. And now, Crist appears to be running out of money.

According to his latest campaign report, the Senate candidate spent $7.4 million since August 5. As of October 1, this has left him with only $1.39 million on hand.

The TPM Poll Average finds Republican nominee Marco Rubio leading comfortably in the race, earning 45.6% versus Crist's 29.3% and Meek's 21.2%. The candidates are scheduled for two more debates this Sunday and next Tuesday.

FL-SEN

National GOP Says Rubio's Locked It Up In FL-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 14, 2010, 6:44PM

Marco Rubio (R)

It's all over but the shouting in the Florida Senate race, the NRSC says. Despite facing two well-funded nominees in Democrat Kendrick Meek and independent Charlie Crist, the national party is pulling $4 million in ad money out of Florida, a sure sign the party thinks Republican nominee Marco Rubio has things pretty close to locked up.

There's good reason for their confidence: Each new poll of the three-way contest shows Rubio picking up steam against his two opponents. The TPM Poll Average shows Rubio with 44.5%, Crist with 28.8% and Meek with 21.7%.

As you can see from the trendlines, Rubio's got the momentum:

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FL-SEN

PPP Poll: Rubio Ahead In FL-SEN -- And Indy Crist Is The Stronger Anti-GOP Candidate

Eric Kleefeld | October 12, 2010, 4:48PM

Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL) and Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL)

The new survey of the Florida Senate race by Public Policy Polling (D) shows Republican Marco Rubio continuing to lead the three-way race. And it also suggests that if Democrats want to defeat Rubio, their best bet would be for the Dem nominee Rep. Kendrick Meek to fall by the wayside, and for people to throw their support behind GOPer-turned-independent Gov. Charlie Crist.

The numbers for the current three-way race: Rubio 44%, Crist 33%, and Meek 21%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.6% margin of error. In the previous PPP poll from late August, Rubio had 37%, Crist 36% and Meek 13%.

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FL-SEN

Crist Campaign Says No Discussions With Meek On Endorsement

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 8, 2010, 4:31PM

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist

The Wall Street Journal article suggesting a massive shakeup in the three-way Florida Senate race is looking more and more like unsubstantiated speculation. Yesterday the Journal reported that Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek might be dropping his third-place bid to endorse the second-place independent candidate Charlie Crist.

Meek's campaign told me the story was "nonsense" earlier today, and now it's Team Crist's turn to throw more cold water on the story, which if true would add some excitement -- and competitive spirit -- to a race that polls show is now officially Republican nominee Marco Rubio's to lose.

"Our campaign has had no discussions," Crist spokesperson Danny Kanner told me this afternoon. But Kanner made it pretty clear that Crist wouldn't be opposed to the idea of seeing Meek exit the race.

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FL-SEN

Democrat Pushes Back On Report That He May Drop Out Of FL-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 8, 2010, 12:47PM

Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL)

Kendrick Meek, the Democratic nominee and third-place candidate in the Florida Senate race, is pushing back on a report by the Wall Street Journal that he may drop out of the three-way contest and endorse independent candidate Charlie Crist in his fight against Republican nominee Marco Rubio.

"Total nonsense!" a Meek spokesperson told me in an email today. The campaign released a statement saying Meek "laughed out loud" when he heard about the Journal story.

The paper reported that "Republican leaders" in Florida "are fretting that a deal may be in the works" between the Meek and Crist camps, which are currently battling each other for Democratic votes while Rubio surges to a huge lead in public polling. The Journal's Stephen Moore reported a growing "GOP paranoia that Democrats may be getting ready to throw the sure loser Mr. Meek over the side."

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FL-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Rubio Winning 50% Support In FL-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 8, 2010, 12:35PM

Marco Rubio

The new Rasmussen poll of the Florida Senate race gives Republican Marco Rubio a huge lead. And in this poll he doesn't even have to rely on a split Democratic vote between independent (and ex-Republican) Gov. Charlie Crist and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek -- he's actually posting a solid 50% support in his own right.

The numbers: Rubio 50%, Crist 25%, and Meek 19%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from last week, Rubio had 41%, Crist 30%, and Meek 21%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Rubio 43.7%, Crist 28.5%, and Meek 21.6%.

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FL-SEN

Polls: Rubio Maintaining Significant Lead In FL-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | October 7, 2010, 2:23PM

Senate candidate Marco Rubio (R-FL)

Republican nominee Marco Rubio was the clear target in last night's primetime debate among the Florida Senate race's three candidates. And according to recent polls, it was for good reason.

A new Mason-Dixon poll out today has the Republican leading big in the fight against independent Gov. Charlie Crist and Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek: Rubio is found ahead of Crist and Meek, respectively, 42%-27%-21%. When Mason-Dixon last took a look at this race on September 22, the Republican earned 40%, versus Crist's 28% and Meek's 23%.

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FL-SEN

Crist And Meek Gang Up On Rubio: Three Men And A Debate In FL-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 7, 2010, 10:35AM

Marco Rubio, Charlie Crist, and Kendrick Meek at a Florida Senate debate

The three candidates vying for Florida's open Senate seat met in their first primetime debate last night. According to reports from the event, confirmed frontrunner and Republican nominee Marco Rubio was the target, with Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek and independent candidate Charlie Crist trying to curb Rubio's surging poll momentum.

Their preferred method? Push Rubio as far to the right as they could, thus leaving him out in the cold among the Sunshine State's swingy moderate electorate.

"You want to take us back to Dick Cheney days," Meek sniped at Rubio, according to the Washington Post.

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FL-SEN

Rubio Ad: 'We All Know' What Crist Is Doing With Party Switch (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 6, 2010, 3:52PM

Marco Rubio (R) and Gov. Charlie Christ (I), candidates for US Senate in Florida

Marco Rubio has a new ad in the Florida Senate race, hammering ex-Republican and now independent Gov. Charlie Crist as an opportunist.

Though Rubio's ad doesn't directly mention the story, he appears to be alluding to Crist's recent insistence that he would have left the GOP and run as an independent even if he had been leading in the polls for the Republican primary. (At the time he switched, Rubio led in the polls for the primary by 20-30 points.)

"We all know what he's doing. Charlie Crist was losing, so he switched sides," Rubio says in the ad. "Just to win votes, he flip-flopped on everything, from the stimulus to ObamaCare. And when that failed, he started falsely attacking. Don't fall for it. Typical politicians who will say or do anything won't retire the national debt, protect Social Security, or help create a single new job. I'm Marco Rubio, and I approved this message because Washington already has enough politicians who care more about their own future than they do about yours."

The TPM Poll Average gives Rubio 42.7%, Crist 29.3%, and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek 21.9%.

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FL-SEN

Marco Rubio's Year-Long Social Security Flip-Flop (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 4, 2010, 3:02PM

Marco Rubio

Like many Republicans -- and virtually all tea party Republicans -- Marco Rubio does not dismiss the idea of privatizing Social Security. But on the trail running for Senate in Florida, where the senior citizen vote matters even more than it does other places, Rubio has made it clear that the time for a serious debate about betting Social Security money on the stock market has come and gone. At least he does sometimes. As Rachel Maddow pointed out on her show Friday night, Rubio started out the year calling for a partial privatization before later moving to the "let's not and say we did" senior-citizen-friendly position he holds today.

The clip on Maddow came from the St. Petersburg Times and Miami Herald. It was taken at a Rubio event in January.

"I do think the retirement age issue is going to have to be confronted," Rubio says when asked about fixing Social Security. "The other is giving people the option of taking some of their Social Security money, at least a potion thereof, and investing it in an alternative to the Social Security system itself."

But wait, someone asks, wouldn't that mean people could lose all their Social Security money in a stock market crash if they made the wrong investments?

"Potentially," Rubio says. "It's their money."

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2010 elections

Tough New Ad In Florida: Charlie Crist's Republican Sound Bytes (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 29, 2010, 9:54AM

Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL)

A new ad in the three-way Senate race in Florida shows independent candidate Charlie Crist for the man he was for years: a prominent name in the Republican Party. That could be enough to sink him.

Coverage of the spot has called it "crushing" and a "death blow" for Crist's campaign. But really the ad is just a collection of Crist's past statements on camera (some less than a month old) espousing his own conservatism and his connection to the GOP.

Those connections are many. Crist, as you'll recall, was a rising star of the GOP in 2008, appearing on John McCain's shortlist for vice-presidential nominees before being heavily courted by the NRSC to run for Florida's open Senate seat. All that came before Marco Rubio and the tea party upended things for Republicans like Crist, eventually pushing Crist to leave the party and run for the Senate as an independent. But even that road was a bumpy one, with Crist first trying to shift hard to the right to take on Rubio before changing direction and running just as hard to the left to pick up Democratic votes as an independent.

All of this happened on camera, of course, meaning the stage was set for Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek's new ad the moment Crist changed parties. Still, the fact that Crist's past is such an obvious liability speaks to the problems he's facing stealing votes from the effective Meek.

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FL-SEN

'Fire-Breathing Liberal' Dem Wexler Endorses Crist In FL-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | September 27, 2010, 5:38PM

Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL) and Fmr. Rep. Robert Wexler (D-FL)

Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL), the former Republican now running for Senate as an independent, picked up the support of a big Democratic name yesterday: Former Rep. Robert Wexler (D-FL), the self-proclaimed "fire-breathing liberal."

"There is a special time in which elected officials and people to which people look to have to put country before party and this is one of those times," Wexler told a campaign audience in his old district. "I am here to endorse Gov. Charlie Crist because he has earned it. He has truly earned it."

As reasons for his support, Wexler cited Crist's veto of a bill that would have eliminated teacher tenure -- a key event that sealed Crist's switch from a Republican to independent -- and his veto of another bill that would have required women seeking abortions to get ultra-sounds.

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FL-SEN

Charlie Crist Goes Negative (Twice!) In New FL-SEN Ad (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 24, 2010, 9:55AM

From a Charlie Crist ad, "What We Don't Need in Washington"

So this is what a three-way Senate race looks like. Charlie Crist, the independent candidate in the Florida race that pits him against Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek and Republican nominee Marco Rubio is up with a negative spot that tries to tear down both of his rivals at the same time.

"Marco Rubio and Kendrick Meek," the ad's dark voiceover intones. "What we don't need in Washington."

In substance, the ad goes after both men on familiar themes. Rubio is the man who's under investigation for "using a Republican party credit card to pay for personal meals, trips and a family reunion." Meek is the guy who "steered government contracts to an indicted developer who then hired Meek's mother."

Both topics have been heavily discussed in the past. Rubio has denied any wrongdoing regarding the credit card accusations, and Meek just shook off the accusations about the developer that were at the center of Jeff Greene's primary campaign against him.

Of Crist's new ad, Meek says the negative attacks will hurt Crist in his quest to win Democratic votes in November. Recent polls have suggested that strategy is falling flat. "The governor is using the most cynical and desperate Republican attacks to stop the bleeding," Meek's campaign said in a press release today.

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2010 elections

Release The Chamber: Biz Group Goes On The Air In Key Senate Races (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 21, 2010, 1:29PM

U.S. Chamber of Commerce CEO Tom Donohue

The U.S. Chamber Of Commerce is dropping a flurry of TV ads in key Senate races across the country as we step into the final weeks of 2010 election season. The group has pledged $75 million in spending this cycle -- and if the first $2 million is any judge, most of that money is going to help Republicans.

Via the AP:

[The Chamber] has the biggest footprint, spending $1 million in Florida against Gov. Charlie Crist, who is running for the Senate as an independent. The chamber has endorsed the Republican candidate, Marco Rubio. The chamber is spending $500,000 in Kentucky against Democrat Jack Conway. The chamber this week endorsed Republican Rand Paul, and it is spending about $300,000 in New Hampshire against Senate Democratic candidate Paul Hodes and $250,000 in Colorado against Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet.

Not all of the Chamber's support is going to the GOP however. Just today, the Chamber announced it's backing Gov. Joe Manchin (D-WV) in the special election to fill the late Robert Byrd's Senate seat. No word yet on whether the group will buy pro-Manchin ads, but some recent polling shows the governor may need the help.

Here now are a sample of the Chamber's all-negative, all pro-GOP TV ads up across the country at the moment:

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2010 elections

Marcomentum: Republican Rubio Cruising In Florida Senate Polls

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 21, 2010, 8:44AM

Marco Rubio (R)

That Katie-bar-the-door, hold-on-to-your-butts, anything-could-happen-and-probably-will three-way Senate race down in Florida is turning out to be about as predictable as it looked like it was going to be back during primary season: once again, according to a slew of recent polls, the race is being defined by Marco Rubio's momentum.

It wasn't supposed to be this way. The Republican nominee for Senate was supposed to be locked in an epic struggle with independent candidate Charlie Crist and Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek. It was to be the Octagon of politics this year -- three men enter, one man leaves! -- the moment that Crist's political savvy and Meek's ability to excite the Democratic base gave Rubio a run for his considerable political fortunes.

Oh well. It was fun while it lasted. To be sure, nothing is decided yet. Crist just went up with his first negative ad of the general election and he still has plenty of money kicking around to make it tough for the Republican as Election Day approaches. But as Rubio has shored up Republican votes and Meek has shown that the statewide Democratic organizing skills he showed off in the primary are no fluke, Crist is running out of runway to really get his independent bid off the ground.

Polls show Crist is running out of time, too. With each passing day, it seems, Rubio's lead is increasing, meaning that Crist (and Meek, too, while we're at it) needs to slow the popular and handsome Republican's roll -- and fast. If last Friday's debate is any indication of how Rubio's rivals are doing when it comes to tearing him down, it's gonna be an uneventful trip to November.

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FL-SEN

Rubio Ad Blasts 'Politicians Who Will Say Or Do Anything' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | September 20, 2010, 6:36PM

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)

Marco Rubio has a new ad in the Florida Senate race. On the surface it seems like a boilerplate ad calling for change in Washington -- but one particular line seems to send a clear message.

"Washington isn't just broke, it's broken. But it won't get better if we keep electing politicians who will say or do anything just to hold office," says Rubio. "Government is out of touch. Spending is out of control. Foreign debt threatens our economic and national security. And typical politicians just don't get it."

Hmm, "politicians who will say or do anything." Could Rubio -- who is running against a governor who was a Republican but switched to independent for the general election -- be referring to anyone in particular?

The TPM Poll Average gives Rubio the lead with 39.1%, followed by Crist at 30.6%, and Democrat Kendrick Meek with 21.2%.

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FL-SEN

Crist Ad: I Vetoed Rubio's Earmarks (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | September 20, 2010, 12:14PM

Ad from Senate candidate Charlie Crist (I-FL), "Vetoed"

Charlie Crist has a new ad in the Florida Senate race, with the independent ex-Republican trying to challenge GOP nominee Marco Rubio's fiscal bonafides.

In the ad, Crist touts his vetoing of earmarks from a state budget in 2007 -- pinning those earmarks on Rubio, who was Speaker of the state House at the time.

"Have you seen Marco Rubio's ads attacking me? Here's what he's hiding. Rubio tried to sneak almost $500 million in earmarks into the budget. I vetoed them," Crist declares. "One and a half million dollars for a rowing institute. Vetoed. $800,000 for artificial turf on a Miami field where he played flag football. I vetoed that, too.

"Just remember, the Washington special interests who are paying for Rubio's ads don't want an independent like me looking out for your money."

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Marco Rubio

Rubio Appears With Far Right Evangelical, Revisionist Historian

Brian Beutler | September 17, 2010, 11:16AM

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)

Republican Senate hopeful Marco Rubio is getting a little help on the campaign trail from a questionable customer.

At an event Wednesday near Orlando, Rubio was introduced to a crowd of 200 by evangelical David Barton, whose claims to fame include orchestrating the push to change Texas textbook standards to paint the far right in a positive light and helping to develop the radical Texas constitution.

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Club For Growth

Club For Growth Ads Target Senate Candidates In Five Key Races (VIDEO)

Marc Kilstein | September 16, 2010, 5:48PM

From a Club For Growth ad

A new arm of the conservative group Club for Growth has rolled out a $1.5 million television ad campaign today, with spots targeting "the liberal, out-of-touch" records of five Democratic Senate candidates. Let's take a look.

First up -- Nevada. The TPM Poll Average shows Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid leading Republican Sharron Angle 47.3%-44.7%. Club for Growth's ad suggests that Angle "understands what Nevada is going through." While she lives in her "middle class Nevada house", Reid is living in the "million-dollar Ritz Carlton in Washington."

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FL-SEN

More Trouble For Crist: He's Listed Way, Way Down On The Ballot

Eric Kleefeld | September 16, 2010, 11:04AM

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist

Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL), who left the Republican Party to run for Senate as an independent, is now running into one of many complications of his new independent status. As the St. Petersburg Times reports, Crist will be listed almost at the very bottom of the ballot, in the ninth position out of ten.

Under state law, Republican Marco Rubio will be listed first as the candidate of the party currently holding the governor's mansion, followed by Democrat Kendrick Meek, then various minor parties candidates, and then independents in the order in which they filed their papers. As the paper reports, Crist already seems to be getting tripped up by this development -- even he's confused about where he'll be listed.

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FL-SEN

Polls: Rubio Leads Big In FL-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | September 15, 2010, 4:59PM

Senate candidate Marco Rubio (R-FL)

Two new polls of the Florida Senate race out today show Republican nominee Marco Rubio with a significant lead over independent Gov. Charlie Crist and Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek.

On the heels of a Fox News poll that showed Rubio with a huge lead, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll and Rasmussen poll also show Rubio way out in front. The Reuters/Ipsos poll has Rubio at 40%, Crist at 26%, and Meek at 21%. The previous Ipsos poll, from August 10, showed Crist leading Rubio and Meek 33%-29%-17%. Tellingly, when the new Ipsos survey asked for respondents' preferential candidate if Meek was not in the race, the Republican only earned a slight 46%-45% advantage over Crist.

Today's Rasmussen poll has Rubio leading 41%-30%-23%. Not much change from an August 25 Rasmussen poll that found Rubio leading the contest 40% to Crist's 30% and Meek's 21%.

The latest Reuters/Ipsos survey is among likely voters and has a margin of error of ±4.6 percentage points. Rasmussen's numbers have a margin of error of ±4.0. The TPM Poll Average of the contest shows Rubio leading 39.1% to Crist's 30.6% and Meek's 21.2%.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

FL-SEN

Fox News Poll: Rubio Way Ahead In FL-SEN Race

Eric Kleefeld | September 14, 2010, 2:25PM

Senate candidate Marco Rubio (R-FL)

The new Fox News poll of the Florida Senate race has very good news for Republican Marco Rubio, with him holding a commanding lead over independent Gov. Charlie Crist and Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek.

The numbers: Rubio 43%, Crist 27%, and Meek 21%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error. There is no prior Fox News poll of this race -- but this one was conducted through a Rasmussen offshoot, Pulse Opinion Research, and the previous Rasmussen poll from late August had Rubio ahead by 40%-30%-21%.

The poll's internals show the worst-case scenario for Dems of Meek and the ex-Republican Crist splitting the Dem vote, with Meek ahead of Crist 46%-39% with that demographic, plus 11% for Rubio. Among Republicans, Rubio is ahead of Crist and Meek by 74%-13%-4% -- meaning that Crist is not holding on to much of his old Republican base, if these numbers are accurate -- and among independents Rubio leads Crist and Meek by 39%-33%-9%.

The TPM Poll Average puts Rubio ahead of Crist and Meek by 38.1%-32.1%-20.3%.

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FL-SEN

Charlie Crist Reaches Out To Indys With New TV Spots (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 13, 2010, 2:30PM

Charlie Crist for US Senate TV Ad: "Line in the Sand"

Charlie Crist is up with two new TV spots intended to help Florida voters understand his transition from Republican to independent in Florida's strange three-way Senate race. The message in the ads is potentially a strong one for the swingy Sunshine State electorate: I'm an independent, so I can do what I want, Crist explains. Partisan lines don't define me.

But the delivery...well, judge for yourself. If you want some political trivia questions to ask yourself while you watch, try these: is the sunny -- and oil-free -- beach setting for these ads a veiled reference to Crist's roundly praised handling of the Florida part of the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico? Does the fact that Crist ends the second ad standing on the "Republican" side of the line mean he wouldn't caucus with Democrats? Does defending the stimulus in the first spot mean he's definitely going to caucus with the Democrats? Is that really Crist drawing a line in the sand in the second spot or did they use a stunt stick?

The TPM Poll Average for the three-way Senate race in Florida shows Republican nominee Marco Rubio with 36.8% of the vote, Crist with 33.4% and Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek with 19.9%.

Watch Crist's new ads:

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2010 elections

TPM's Top 10 Senate Races To Watch

Brian Beutler | September 13, 2010, 8:35AM

Kentucky Senate candidates Jack Conway and Rand Paul talk with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

Campaign season doesn't really heat up until September ... which means now. That means all the scandals and ads and ups and downs you've heard and read about in the last several months were just stage-setters. Most voters really begin paying attention now.

It's looking like a tough year for Senate Democrats, almost of whom are polling below 50 percent. Several weeks ago, many Republicans -- including NRSC Chair John Cornyn -- thought Republicans wouldn't be able to retake the Senate. Today, it's a distinct possibility. There are a number of critical races, but you should really keep an eye on these 10.

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FL-SEN

Poll: Rubio Has Big Lead In FL-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 9, 2010, 2:01PM

Senate candidate Marco Rubio (R-FL)

Marco Rubio, the Republican nominee for Senate in Florida, has a commanding lead over his two opponents according to a new poll of the contest out today.

Sunshine State News, a conservative-leaning Florida news site, surveyed 1,016 likely voters Sept. 1-7 and found Rubio with a double digit lead over Gov. Charlie Crist (I) and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D). The poll shows Rubio drawing 43% of the vote in the three-way contest, with Crist a distant second with 29%. Meek is close to him with 23% of the vote. The poll has a margin of error of around 3%.

Past polling has shown the race to be much closer than what SSN's poll reports. In the TPM Poll Average, Rubio draws 36.8% of the vote, Crist 33.4% and Meek 19.9%.

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