START treaty

Dems Close In On START Ratification

Brian Beutler | December 21, 2010, 10:12AM

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and President Obama

At this point it's all but certain that the Democrats will be able to ratify the new START treaty before the end of the week. Yesterday was a breakthrough, as key on-the-fence Senators announced their support or near support. But the dam fully broke this morning when Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN) -- the Senate's third-ranking Republican -- broke with his leadership team, including anti-START ringleader Jon Kyl, to announce his support.

"I will vote to ratify the new START treaty," Alexander said on the Senate floor. Even after the arms reductions the treaty demands, Alexander said, the US will still have enough weapons to blow "enemies" to "kingdom come."

He joins Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) as the most recent Republican to announce their intent to support the treaty; Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) is widely expected to solidify his support for the treaty as well.

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Democrats

Dems Have An Ace In The Hole In The Tax Cut Fight But Won't Play It

Brian Beutler | November 30, 2010, 11:38AM

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) with Sens. Dick Durbin (D-IL) and Charles Schumer (D-NY)

For weeks now, Republicans have been intoning darkly about the possibility that Americans will see a historic tax increase if Congress (read: Democrats) and the White House don't act. At the same time, they've come out strongly against just about all of the compromise proposals Democrats have put forward to prevent the Bush tax cuts on the middle class from expiring.

The implication is that Republicans are willing, if it comes down to it, to let all the tax cuts expire at the end of the year, and pin it on the Democrats. But what if Democrats turned those tactics right back on the GOP:? They could hold firm on their framework -- which would allow the top-income tax cuts to expire quickly -- and then unload on the Republicans if January 1 comes and taxes rise.

Not that it matters: They're not gonna do it.

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OH-SEN

Polls: GOPer Portman Surging In OH-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | October 6, 2010, 2:56PM

Ohio Senate candidate Rob Portman (R)

In the race to replace retiring Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH), Republican nominee and former Rep. Rob Portman appears to be in prime position to keep Republican control of the Senate seat.

This morning, a Quinnipiac poll of the Ohio race was released and found the Republican leading Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher 55%-36% (the previous Q poll, from mid-September, put Portman up 20). Earlier this week, a Fox News poll had the race at 53%-37% (the previous Fox News poll put Portman up 13).

In the last month of polling, the narrowest margin produced for the contest was Portman leading by seven points.

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Government Shutdown

DeMint Calls On Republicans To Force Fall Spending Showdown With Democrats

Brian Beutler | October 5, 2010, 10:24AM

Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) is sending out a warning to his fellow Republicans: Stand tall against government spending this fall, and be prepared for a showdown.

"[B]efore they're replaced in January, all of the Democrats who are put out of a job in November will be able to come back and rob the nation blind," DeMint writes in the conservative National Review.

At a glance it appears DeMint is lashing out at Democrats. But his real concern is that members of his own party -- who he described last week as "retiring Republican appropriators" -- will join Democrats during the lame-duck session of Congress and pass large spending legislation to keep the government running (what's known on the Hill as an omnibus spending bill).

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Congress

Thought Colbert Was Bad? Here Are The Top Five Head-Scratching Celebrity Congessional Testimonials

Christina Bellantoni | September 28, 2010, 8:00AM

Elmo testifying on Capitol Hill.

Republicans and even House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer were none-too-pleased with Stephen Colbert's testimony Friday on immigration, but he's far from the only celebrity to bring the sacrosanct hearings down to a new low.

Compare Colbert appearing in character to highlight that the agricultural work performed by many illegal immigrants is backbreaking, with, say, Michael Crichton helping push Republicans' line that global warming is fake, or with a Sesame Street muppet championing education reform. From the Jonas Brothers to Sean Astin, celebrities have long offered their fame to highlight some pet issue. And let's face it, Congressional hearings are far from pristine, serious events. Half the time members don't show up, or they check out, reading the newspaper. Witnesses go through some pre-coaching, and protesters interrupt proceedings.

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OH-SEN

Poll: GOPer Running Away With OH-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 27, 2010, 2:26PM

Ohio Senate candidate Rob Portman (R)

A new poll of the race to replace retiring Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) shows Republicans are looking pretty likely to retain the seat. The University of Cincinnati poll of likely voters shows GOP nominee Rob Portman with a huge lead over his Democratic opponent, Lee Fisher. The poll shows Portman leading 55-40.

The last University of Cincinnati poll of the race -- from May -- showed Fisher up 47-46.

Internals show the race skewing toward the Republican across the state, according to the Cincinnati Enquirer, a co-sponsor of the poll.

"Portman's lead in southwest Ohio, his home base, is astronomical -- he has 66 percent support to Fisher's 28 percent," the paper reports. "But in Fisher's backyard - northeast Ohio -- the race is nearly a dead heat -- 47 percent Fisher, 49 percent Portman."

Past polling suggests the lead in the new poll is no fluke. The TPM Poll Average shows Portman leading 49.3-39.2.

Trend lines show that Portman is in danger of running away with election as early voting begins next week:

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Bush Tax Cuts

Retiring Sen. Voinovich Doesn't Want To Extend Any Tax Cuts

Christina Bellantoni | September 15, 2010, 3:42PM

Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH)

The Senate Republicans are down one vote if they want to block a Democratic attempt to extend the Bush-era tax cuts for just those making $250,000 or less. Retiring Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) told The Hill he's not interested in extending them for either the middle class or for both the middle class and the rich, the policy his fellow GOPers say they prefer.

"My gut is probably no," Voinovich told The Hill. "I think I would probably not vote, period, for it."

Voinovich stressed he isn't 100 percent sure, but said his take is that broad tax reform is more important and that extending the tax cuts as President Obama wants would only "kick the can down the road."

OH-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: GOPer Portman Leads Ohio Senate Race By Six

Evan McMorris-Santoro | August 31, 2010, 11:05AM

OH-SEN Democratic candidate Lee Fisher

Former Bush administration official Rob Portman's (R) lead in the race to replace retiring Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) has shrunk to six points, according to a new poll from Rasmussen out today.

Portman leads Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) 47-41 in the new survey of 750 likely voters, conducted Aug. 29. The margin of error is 4%. In the last Rasmussen poll of the race, conducted Aug. 16, Portman led 48-39.

Both polls include results from "leaners," respondents who first say they are undecided about the race and are then pressed by the pollster to make a decision about which candidate they're more likely to support in the end. "Early in any campaign, the numbers without leaners are generally more significant," Rasmussen writes. "Later in a campaign, the numbers with leaners matter more."

With campaign season essentially fully underway, the results of the Rasmussen poll suggests that Fisher has at least a fighting chance in the contest. Since his convincing win in the bitter Democratic primary May 4, Fisher's campaign has been plagued by bad press, including reports of numerous staff shakeups and low fundraising totals.

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Climate Change

Voinovich Calls It 'Cynical' To Push Climate Change Legislation Right Now

Christina Bellantoni | July 20, 2010, 4:57PM

Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH)

Sen. George Voinovich sharply criticized Senate leadership this afternoon for beginning a debate on a climate change bill, saying that "even in the best of circumstances" there isn't enough time to get something done in an election year. Voinovich (R-OH) is a key moderate Republican often courted by Democrats and the White House, especially since he announced he's retiring. But he was livid today on Capitol Hill.

Speaking with reporters as Senate Democrats huddled to evaluate a plan Majority Leader Harry Reid wants to start debating next week, Voinovich minced no words as he called Reid's attempt "cynical" and intellectually dishonest.

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Blanche Lincoln

Down To The Wire: Democratic Leaders Scramble To Keep Financial Reform From Unraveling

Brian Beutler | May 19, 2010, 9:06AM

Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT)

What had been a fairly non-contentious debate over Wall Street reform legislation nearly came off the rails on Tuesday after Republicans--tacitly backed (or at least unimpeded) by top Democrats--used Senate rules to block votes on far-reaching, consumer-friendly amendments, portending a potential progressive revolt.

This afternoon at 2 pm, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will attempt to bring debate on the financial reform bill to a close, though it remains unclear whether he has the 60 votes he'll need to prevail.

A big reason for that? A number of Democrats--most vocally, Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND)--have threatened to vote against ending debate until their flagship amendments get a vote on the floor. But Republicans are standing in the way, saying they'll filibuster those amendments, subjecting each to a 60 vote requirement, and, more importantly, several days' worth of delay. Faced with a choice between picking a fight with Republicans over those amendments and simply moving ahead with the bill, Democratic leadership has, for now, chosen the latter.

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OH-SEN

AP: Fisher Wins Democratic Nomination In Ohio Senate Race

Evan McMorris-Santoro | May 4, 2010, 10:09PM

OH-SEN Democratic candidate Lee Fisher

In the final result of a trio of competitive Senate primaries tonight, the AP is reporting that Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher easily beat Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner to win the Democratic nomination tonight.

The result pits Fisher against former Rep. Rob Portman (R) in a battle for the open seat vacated by Sen. George Voinovich (R). The TPM Poll Average of that matchup shows that race to be a dead heat, with Fisher leading by a margin of 40.5-39.2.

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Financial Reform

The Republican Duo Behind The Demise Of The Financial Reform Filibuster

Brian Beutler | April 29, 2010, 11:16AM

Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) and Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME)

The GOP's bid to block debate on Democrats' financial regulatory reform bill ended with a whimper. After a three day standoff--during which they voted repeatedly, and to a number, to sustain their filibuster--the Republicans acknowledged that they'd be unable to extract further concessions behind closed doors, and agreed, unanimously, to allow the bill to come to the floor.

That decision didn't please everybody. In a statement announcing that bipartisan negotiations had reached an impasse, Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL)--the ranking member on the Banking Committee, and the Republicans' top financial reform negotiator--said that the common ground he'd found with Democrats was "not sufficient to garner my support for moving this bill to the Senate floor." And last night, after a meeting of the GOP caucus, Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK) told reporters that he planned to vote against proceeding to debate again...but he never got the chance.

So who was pushing for the filibuster to end--and why?

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George Voinovich

Why Voinovich Was The First GOP Egg To Crack On Financial Reform

Brian Beutler | April 28, 2010, 2:15PM

Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH)

Earlier this afternoon, Republicans voted, for the third straight day, to block Democrats' financial reform bill from getting a hearing on the Senate floor. But starting last night, Republicans began to hint that they'd ultimately relent, and none more candidly than Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH). If a bipartisan agreement can't be reached, Voinovich said last night, "we'll just get it out there and move on with it."

Voinovich has long been considered a swing vote on financial reform, and a number of Republican sources, both on the Hill and off, told me weeks ago that they viewed him as, in some ways, the weakest link.

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Financial Reform

Financial Reform Talks Near Collapse, Some GOPers Threaten To Defect

Brian Beutler | April 27, 2010, 5:41PM

Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) speaks with Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) on Capitol Hill.

Bipartisan Wall Street reform negotiations appeared on the brink of collapse Tuesday night after Republican and Democratic principals found themselves at an impasse over the issue of consumer financial protection. But though Republicans have been promising all week to sustain a filibuster, blocking debate on the Democrats' legislation, they now seem prepared to cede the current fight, explicitly saying that, if talks don't bear fruit soon, they'll allow the bill to move to the floor.

"I don't feel like there's a real possibility in the near future of getting a bipartisan bill... I just don't feel that's a possibility," Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) told reporters in response to a question from TPMDC.

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Financial Reform

Head On Collision: Republicans Threaten To Block Debate On Financial Reform

Brian Beutler | April 15, 2010, 7:18PM

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

The game of chicken over the Senate's financial regulatory reform bill may end in a dramatic collision, with the moment of impact fast approaching and neither Republicans nor Democrats prepared to yield.

Democrats have promised to put the legislation--authored by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd--to a key test vote, whether or not Republicans are happy with the proposal itself, or feel they've had enough input in its construction. That puts Republicans in a tricky position: either they take a politically risky vote and block debate on a Wall Street reform bill, or they cede the upper hand to Democrats. But political risk or no, the GOP is gearing up for full bore opposition--and that would leave Democrats shy of the votes they need to put the bill on the floor.

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Deficit

With Unemployment In Double-Digits, Congress Set To Clash On Debt And Deficits

Brian Beutler | December 11, 2009, 10:44AM

Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND)

If and when health care passes, the White House and the Congress will be tugged in two seemingly different directions. On the one hand, with unemployment in the double digits (and an election around the corner), Democrats will have to do something about jobs--and that means another spending bill. The House has already begun its work and the Senate will have to follow suit if the economy is to improve, and if Democrats want to avoid a political blood bath. But the White House, and a bipartisan bloc in the Senate, have made very clear that they'll pay equal, or greater, attention to addressing the country's perilous fiscal situation. And that could touch off yet another tug of war between liberal Democrats and centrist legislators over the country's priorities.

Last month, liberals were taken by surprise when a number of senators--including several Democrats--issued a chilling ultimatum: let us tinker with entitlement programs and taxes, they said, or we'll block raising the amount of debt the government can take on. According to Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND), 11 or 12 senators have said they will not vote for must-pass legislation to raise the country's debt ceiling unless they are authorized to create an external commission with extraordinary power over Medicare, Social Security and so on.

This week, Conrad and several of his supporters unveiled their proposal, and it turns out, liberals may have had less to worry about than it seemed at first blush. Not because the members of the commission would like to be gentle to American welfare programs, but because its authors seem to have set it up to fail.

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Lindsey Graham

Graham: I Understand The Concerns Of Republicans Boycotting Climate Hearing

Brian Beutler | November 3, 2009, 3:32PM

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC)

As you may have heard, the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee kicked off an amendment process on a climate change bill sponsored by Sens. John Kerry (D-MA) and Barbara Boxer (D-CA) today over the howls of the committee's Republican minority.

The back story's pretty simple, and not at all surprising. The committee minority, led by Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK), don't want a climate change bill to move forward. The most moderate among them--Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH)--isn't pleased that official EPA reports don't paint a sufficiently gloomy picture of a post-cap and trade future and together, the GOP is boycotting committee proceedings at least until such time as they get their hands on such a study.

But then there's Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC).

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Barack Obama

Is George Voinovich Getting Ready to Play Ball on Health Care?

Brian Beutler | September 10, 2009, 5:24PM

Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH)

Over the last several weeks, a number of Democratic sources have suggested that Senate leaders might be able to convince the retiring Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) to support a health care reform package--or at least to agree not to support a filibuster of it.

We now have a couple of telling data points, suggesting there may be something to that hunch. In advance of President Obama's speech last night, Voinovich released a long, and mostly dour statement about the status of the health care fight.

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