2010 elections

Every Cloud Has A Silver Lining: The GOP House Seats That Could Go Dem Tonight

Eric Kleefeld | November 2, 2010, 9:28AM

Rep. Joseph Cao (R-LA)

So as we stare down the barrel of some big Democratic losses in the House today, let's look at another end of the equation. It's often noted that Republicans need to pick up 39 seats to win a majority, but it is also theoretically possible that they could pick up 39 seats and still not win control. Why? Because there are in fact a very small handful of seats that they hold that the Democrats could nevertheless pickup in even this bad year.

Keep in mind, these wave cycles often have a few seats that swing the other way. Even in 1994, Democrats picked up such seats as Maine-02 and Rhode Island-01. The 2006 midterm year was interesting, with Republican picking up nothing -- not one measly House seat -- but even in 2008 they won a couple seats back, such as Kansas-02 and Texas-22, even as they lost another net 21 seats.

So let's take a quick look at the Republican-held House seats that according to the leading ratings out there -- CQ, Cook Political Report, Rothenberg Political Report, and Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball -- are expected to go to the Dems.

To be honest, there aren't that many of them -- though who knows, there could be some surprises tonight. The criteria here are that the ratings guys all have these seats ranging from toss-up to leaning Dem to Dem favored. It's a short list, but each one of them would move back the goalpost for a Republican House. Then again, if the national GOP wave turns out to be as big as everyone says, it won't be too much of an issue -- though it surely means something to the Dem candidates in these individual districts.

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DE-At Large

PPP Poll: Dems Set To Pick Up Mike Castle's Delaware House Seat, Too

Eric Kleefeld | September 16, 2010, 1:26PM

Candidates for Congress Glen Urquhart (R) and John Carney (D)

New polling numbers of Delaware from Public Policy Polling (D), conducted over this past weekend before Tuesday's primary, show that Democrats are favored to pick up the House seat of Republican Mike Castle, the establishment moderate who lost the Senate primary to Tea Partier Christine O'Donnell. And as a bonus, Democratic former Lt. Gov. John Carney could end up rolling over another Tea Partier who beat the GOP establishment, real estate developer Glen Urquhart.

The numbers: Carney 48%, Urquhart 37%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3.2% margin of error. In the previous PPP numbers from early August, Carney led Urquhart by 48%-30%.

However, this is not a case of the GOP primary voters potentially throwing away a race as they did on the Senate side. Urquhart very narrowly defeated the state party's official choice, philanthropist Michelle Rollins, by a margin of just 552 votes out of about 56,000. But in this poll, Rollins too is trailing Carney by a margin of 47%-37%. In the previous poll, Carney led Rollins by 48%-32%.

"Delaware has really worked out well for Democrats," writes PPP president Dean Debnam. "Christine O'Donnell's primary win has ensured the party will keep its Senate seat and with Mike Castle leaving the House that's the number one opportunity for a pick up on that end."