2010 elections

Broad And Deep: A Quick Look The GOP's Big Victory In The House

Brian Beutler | November 3, 2010, 8:58AM

House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) with members of the GOP leadership

The midwest was the key to the GOP's 60-plus seat victory in the House of Representatives. Where Democrats were able to stave off losses in the west and northeast and even parts of the south, they were creamed by upwards of two dozen seats in states like Ohio, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, where the recession has taken a brutal toll.

Dems had a significant majority going in to yesterday's election, so the greatest losses were suffered by junior members. Most of them were fully expected. But when you lose this many seats, invariably some surprises get swept along with the tide.

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MO-04

GOP Ad: Dem Ike Skelton Has 'Made Us Proud' -- Now Defeat Him (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 18, 2010, 3:55PM

NRCC ad, "Ike Skelton's Real Record"

A new ad from the National Republican Congressional Committee, attacking Rep. Ike Skelton (D-MO), shows the challenge that the GOP faces in trying to dislodge some of the big senior House Democrats that they've targeted in this seemingly Republican year. Even in an ad calling for Skelton's defeat, they still praise his service in office.

"Ike Skelton -- over three decades in office, he's made us proud," the announcer says. At this point, you might think it's an ad for Skelton. But then the knife gets twisted.

"But now our country faces new and urgent problems. Massive spending, Pelosi's stimulus, mounting debt, job-killing energy taxes -- and Ike Skelton voted for them all. Ike voted with Pelosi 94% of the time. After 33 years in office, maybe it's time for Ike Skelton to come back home."

Will this ad be effective? Or will too many viewers just hear the "he's made us proud" at the beginning, and tune out the rest?

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2010 elections

Surprise! Meet The House Dems Who Used To Be Safe -- But Aren't Anymore

Eric Kleefeld | September 14, 2010, 8:57AM

Rep. Ike Skelton (D-MO)

Republicans are widely expected to make significant gains this November, possibly, perhaps even probably, taking back control of the House of Representatives. This is to be expected to some extent, as the Democrats enjoyed two big wave elections in 2006 and 2008, and many of those House members won't be coming back. But there are some other Dems, who in many other cycles would be safe bets to be reelected, that have unexpectedly ended up in tough races after longer tenures in Congress.

[TPM'S TOP 10 HOUSE RACES TO WATCH]

The House members we're talking about are folks who have been easily re-elected in past cycles, often without significant opposition, in districts that were leaning Republican in other ways, such as in the presidential vote. But in a year where the GOP has the wind at their backs, these Dems are now being aggressively targeted, and facing tough races.

"You always have some Congressmen who have been shaky," said Professor Larry Sabato from the University of Virginia, in an interview with TPM. "You think of John Spratt. Look at his district, where it is in South Carolina, he's never really that safe. Ike Skelton [of Missouri] -- they're just never that safe. They get a lot of passes, and their incumbency and their chairmanships help them. But every now and then the sun and the moon and the stars align just right and they're in trouble. It doesn't mean they'll lose, but they'll have close and competitive races, anyway."

So let's take a look at some of the Dems who have been in Congress for awhile -- and somewhat surprisingly, will have to work hard this year to stay there. This list is not exhaustive of all suddenly-vulnerable Dems, nor is it meant to imply that all or even any of them are guaranteed to lose. But it does give a sense of the current hostile environment and lack of Democratic enthusiasm -- especially as it spreads to districts that have been becoming more Republican underneath their occupants' feet.

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Health Care

Against It: A Look At The 34 Dems Who Voted No On Health Care Reform

Brian Beutler | March 22, 2010, 9:50AM

Clockwise: Rep. Ike Skelton (D-MO), Rep. Collin Peterson (D-MN), Rep. Michael Arcuri (D-NY), Rep. Artur Davis (D-AL), Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA) and Rep. Rick Boucher (D-VA)

The 34 Democrats who voted against health care reform last night are by and large a familiar set. They overlap significantly--though not entirely--with the 39 Democrats who voted against the House health care bill in November. Just as in November, most hail from contested districts, in the south and the midwest. But just as in November, there are some surprises--members you wouldn't normally expect to see voting against legislation so closely associated with the Democratic party.

Most of the Democratic "no" votes are as you would expect: conservative members from conservative districts, in many cases facing difficult re-election challenges. Blue Dog chair Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-SD) is one such member. So is Rep. Rick Boucher (D-VA).

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