TPMDC
IL-10

2010 elections

Every Cloud Has A Silver Lining: The GOP House Seats That Could Go Dem Tonight


Rep. Joseph Cao (R-LA)

So as we stare down the barrel of some big Democratic losses in the House today, let's look at another end of the equation. It's often noted that Republicans need to pick up 39 seats to win a majority, but it is also theoretically possible that they could pick up 39 seats and still not win control. Why? Because there are in fact a very small handful of seats that they hold that the Democrats could nevertheless pickup in even this bad year.

Keep in mind, these wave cycles often have a few seats that swing the other way. Even in 1994, Democrats picked up such seats as Maine-02 and Rhode Island-01. The 2006 midterm year was interesting, with Republican picking up nothing -- not one measly House seat -- but even in 2008 they won a couple seats back, such as Kansas-02 and Texas-22, even as they lost another net 21 seats.

So let's take a quick look at the Republican-held House seats that according to the leading ratings out there -- CQ, Cook Political Report, Rothenberg Political Report, and Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball -- are expected to go to the Dems.

To be honest, there aren't that many of them -- though who knows, there could be some surprises tonight. The criteria here are that the ratings guys all have these seats ranging from toss-up to leaning Dem to Dem favored. It's a short list, but each one of them would move back the goalpost for a Republican House. Then again, if the national GOP wave turns out to be as big as everyone says, it won't be too much of an issue -- though it surely means something to the Dem candidates in these individual districts.

Read more »

PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)
Topics: 2010 elections, Cedric Richmond, Charles Djou, Colleen Hanabusa, DE-At Large, Dan Seals, Glen Urquhart, HI-01, House '10, IL-10, John Carney, Joseph Cao, LA-02, Robert Dold

2010 elections

TPM's Top 10 House Races To Watch


Nancy Pelosi and John Boehner

It might be a painful night for House Democrats on November 2. Most analysts are predicting a Republican takeover of the House, with as many as 80 or so seats in play, and the GOP only needing to win 39 to seize back control. The TPM Poll Average shows voters nationwide prefer generic Congressional Republican candidates over Democrats 47.3%-40.7%.

Many of the Democrats who won in the Obama 2008 tidal wave are the most vulnerable, and the Democrats who captured Bush-won districts in 2006 aren't breathing much easier. But Democrats see glimmers of hope in open seats, and may win some of their own.

TPM chose 10 House races to watch this fall. They will be competitive, likely entertaining, and are bellwethers to help determine whether the nation sees Speaker Pelosi or Speaker Boehner at the dais come January.

Read more »

PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)
Topics: 2010 elections, CA-03, DCCC, IL-10, John Boehner, KY-06, LA-02, MN-06, NRCC, NV-03, Nancy Pelosi, OH-15, SD-At Large, VA-05, WI-07

IL-10

GOP Rep. Kirk Running Not Running Maybe Running For Senate In 2010

So is Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) running for the Senate in 2010, or not?

Kirk began telling people in the last few days that he was running. Then it was reported this afternoon by Chris Cillizza that Kirk was suddenly telling people that he wasn't running.

Not so, Kirk told Roll Call. He is still talking the race over with his potential primary rival, state Republican chairman Andy McKenna.

The issue here appears to be that Kirk might have had trouble winning support from other Republicans in the state's Congressional delegation -- because he broke ranks to support the Democrats' energy bill.

PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (2)
Topics: House '10, IL-10, IL-SEN, Senate '10

IL-10

GOP Rep. Kirk's Senate Run Opens Up District For Potential Dem Pickup

With the news that Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) will reportedly run for Senate in 2010, let's take a quick look at the open House seat -- which on paper, looks like a plausible opportunity for the Democrats to pick up a seat.

Kirk won re-election 53%-47% last year, at the same time as President Obama carried his suburban Chicago district by a whopping 61%-38%. In addition, John Kerry won the seat by 52%-47% in 2004, making this a Dem-leaning seat under any normal circumstances.

Potential Democratic nominees include: State Sen. Michael Bond, who was already in the race; Dan Seals, who was Kirk's opponent in 2006 and 2008; and state Sen. Susan Garrett. Possible Republican candidates include state Rep. Elizabeth Coulson, state Rep. JoAnn Osmond, and businessman Dick Green.

Democrats think they'll have a pretty good shot at this seat, as it is one of only six districts that were won by both Obama in 2008 and Kerry in 2004, but are represented by Republicans. On the Republican side, a source told me: "This won't be an easy seat to hold, but with the right candidate and Kirk on the ticket, it is possible."

PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (1)
Topics: House '10, IL-10, IL-SEN, Senate '10

IL-10

Report: GOP Rep. Kirk Running For Senate In Illinois

The Washington Post reports that Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) will be running for the Senate seat formerly held by President Obama, and now occupied by Democratic Sen. Roland Burris.

This follows today's news that state Attorney General Lisa Madigan, who would have been a shoo-in for both the Democratic primary and the general election, will not be running. State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias is currently in the race for the Dems, but could potentially face competition from Chris Kennedy, a businessman and son of the late Robert F. Kennedy. Burris has not announced his plans, but he has not raised much money, and polls show he would lose a primary by a landslide.

Kirk has been able to cultivate an image as a moderate, winning re-election in a suburban district that was carried by President Obama. But expect the Democrats to hammer him in this blue state over just how partisan he can really be: For example, he has said that he told Chinese leaders not to trust the American government's budget figures, and he also spoke at a Tea Party and made some rather hyperbolic comments.

PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)
Topics: IL-10, IL-SEN, Senate '10

IL-10

Dem Giannoulias Pounces On GOPer Kirk For Bad-Mouthing America To China

Illinois state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, who is now running for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Roland Burris in the 2010 election, is now pouncing on GOP Congressman Mark Kirk -- who has been mulling whether to run for Senate himself -- for having openly told the Chinese government not to trust America's budget numbers.

Giannoulias released this statement:

"In the midst of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, Mark Kirk is essentially telling China, which holds more U.S. debt than any nation on earth, not to trust the American government, and by extension, the American people. This puts the full faith and credit of the United States at risk and threatens to permanently wreak havoc on the credit markets that are essential to our recovery and our economic future.

"Congressman Kirk's reckless actions demonstrate a terrible lapse in judgment and should be immediately retracted," said Illinois State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias.

Kirk is not an official candidate at this time, and Giannoulias has yet to actually nail down his own nomination. But a Dem is clearly taking an early opportunity to keep this story alive and attack a potential rival.

PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (3)
Topics: IL-10, IL-SEN, Senate '10

IL-10

Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL): I Told China Not To Believe U.S. Budget Numbers

Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) now appears to have taken a bold step in the debate over the budget deficit: Openly telling a foreign government not to trust the administration in Washington.

The Straits Times reports that Kirk spoke to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, and discussed a meeting he had with Chinese leaders. Here's the video:

"One of the messages I had -- because we need to build trust and confidence in our number one creditor," said Kirk, "is that the budget numbers that the US government had put forward should not be believed. The Congress is actually gonna spend quite a bit more than what's in the budget, and the health-care bill probably being the lead driver of additional spending by the Congress."

A request for comment to Kirk's office has not yet been returned.

PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (8)
Topics: IL-10

Follow us!