IL-SEN

Mark Kirk Wins Obama's Old Senate Seat For The GOP

Eric Lach | November 3, 2010, 12:25AM

Mark Kirk

Republican Rep. Mark Kirk was won the Illinois Senate race over Alexi Giannoulias, and snatched President Obama's old seat away from the Democrats.

With 10,838 of 11,209 precincts reporting, Kirk leads Giannoulias 49.56%-47.15%. The AP and MSNBC have called the race for Kirk.

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2010 elections

Senate In The Balance: TPM's Look At The 9 Key Races Still Up For Grabs

Eric Kleefeld | November 1, 2010, 5:06PM

Clockwise from top left: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO), Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI), Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA)

As we head into Election Day, one thing is clear for Senate Democrats: It's going to be bad. Seriously. There's no going anywhere but down. But how far down?

It's unlikely that Democrats will manage to lose their majority outright, since they're starting at the high mark of 59 seats. But things sure look rough. Open seats in Indiana and North Dakota seem to be gone already, along with incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas. Republican seats that seemed like potential Dem pickups much earlier in the cycle -- North Carolina and open seats in Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Ohio -- are clearly out of reach.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Stranger Than Fiction? TPM Casts The 2010 Midterms Movie]

The few bright spots for Democrats are open seats in Connecticut and Delaware, where very weak Republican candidates Linda McMahon and Christine O'Donnell have spared the Dems from total humiliation. So with that in mind, let's take a look at some other key races to watch tomorrow.

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IL-SEN

PPP Poll: GOPer Kirk Leads IL-SEN By 4 Points

Eric Lach | November 1, 2010, 9:11AM

IL Senate candidates Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Mark Kirk (R)

A new PPP Poll of the Illinois Senate race shows Republican Mark Kirk with a four-point lead over Democrat Alexi Giannoulias, 46%-42%, with the Green Party's LeAlan Jones and Libertarian Mike Labno each at 3%.

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IL-SEN

Who Leads IL-SEN? Depends How Many Candidates Are Involved

Eric Lach | October 29, 2010, 12:27PM

Illinois Senate candidates Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Mark Kirk (R)

The Illinois Senate race has been close for months. Democrat Alexi Giannoulias and Republican Rep. Mark Kirk have attacked each other viciously over their respective scandals, attempting to gain advantage in a tight contest. So who is ahead? Well, it depends which polls you look at. Because while Giannoulias and Kirk are the headliners, two other candidates, the Green Party's LeAlan Jones and Libertarian Mike Labno, are each pulling in enough support to sway the results of this close race.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Stranger Than Fiction? TPM Casts The 2010 Midterms Movie]

One note: support for third-party candidates often comes up much lower on Election Day itself than compared to the pre-election polls. In many cases, voters who were thinking of casting a protest vote ultimately pick one of the two major-party candidates. However, this effect is very hard to predict.

That said, let's break down the numbers:

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IL-SEN

Kirk Accuses Giannoulias Of 'Immaturity' At Final IL-SEN Debate (VIDEO)

Eric Lach | October 28, 2010, 11:36AM

IL Senate candidates Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Mark Kirk (R)

Things got testy, once again, at the final televised debate last night between Illinois Senate candidates Democrat Alexi Giannoulias and Republican Rep. Mark Kirk. The race has been mired in negative ads, accusations and scandals on both sides for months, and that atmosphere carried over into last night.

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IL-SEN

Giannoulias Admits His Campaign Was Behind Flyer Touting Libertarian

Eric Lach | October 28, 2010, 10:16AM

IL-SEN candidate Alexi Giannoulias (D)

The Chicago Sun-Times reports that Illinois Democratic Senate nominee Alexi Giannoulias admitted yesterday that his campaign had a hand in a mailer sent to conservatives in downstate Illinois touting Libertarian Senate candidate Mike Labno as a "pro-life, pro-gun" alternative to Rep. Mark Kirk, the Republican nominee in the race.

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IL-SEN

Fox News Poll: GOPer Kirk Leads IL-SEN By Two Points

Eric Lach | October 26, 2010, 11:14AM

IL Senate candidates Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Mark Kirk (R)

A new Fox News poll of the Illinois Senate race shows Republican Rep. Mark Kirk (43%) with a two-point lead over Democrat Alexi Giannoulias (41%).

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IL-SEN

DSCC Poll: Giannoulias Up By 2 Points In IL-SEN

Eric Lach | October 25, 2010, 3:16PM

IL-SEN candidates Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Rep. Mark Kirk (R)

A new Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee poll of the Illinois Senate race shows Democrat Alexi Giannoulias leading Republican Rep. Mark Kirk 41%-39% in a head-to-head match-up, with 19% of likely voters still undecided.

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NV-SEN

A Rundown Of Recount Laws In States With Close Statewide Elections

Brian Beutler and Elizabeth Harrison | October 25, 2010, 12:55PM

Workers recount ballots from the 2008 Minnesota Senate race.

It's been a grueling election season, but at least it will all be over next week.

Unless, of course, it's not. An unusual number of closely contested races means the chances are fairly high that one or more high-profile elections will end in a recount. With nearly 100 House seats in play, a recount could be triggered in just about every state. In Senate and gubernatorial elections, though, we have a better idea of where to watch -- i.e., which races are within the margin of error, or narrowing quickly.

Here's a rundown of recount rules in key states. Remember, control of the Senate could depend on this.

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IL-SEN

Tribune Poll: Kirk Leads Giannoulias By 3 Points In IL-SEN

Eric Lach | October 25, 2010, 10:57AM

IL Senate candidates Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Mark Kirk (R)

A new Chicago Tribune/WGN poll of the Illinois Senate race shows a still-close contest, but the numbers show a five-point swing in favor of Republican Rep. Mark Kirk since the last Tribune poll.

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2010 elections

MoveOn Takes On Corporate-Funded Campaigns In New Set Of 28 Ads

Marc Kilstein | October 22, 2010, 8:43AM

MoveOn ad, "Our Ad"

In a new television ad blitz, the liberal grassroots group MoveOn.org Political Action is releasing 28 new TV spots in various toss up Senate and House races across the country. The ads take aim at Republican candidates who have benefited from "corporate front-group spending," as the organization has stepped up its fight against corporate money in politics following the Supreme Court's ruling in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission.

The ads, which use a single template for all 28 races, are titled "Our ad." They feature pictures of MoveOn members holding up signs, reiterating the narrator's script: "This ad is not paid for by the corporate front groups and oil billionaires who are trying to buy this election. This is our ad made by hard working Americans who live right here in [name of contest's state] and we have one simple message. [Name of Republican candidate] is backed by one of those front groups, and if he's on their side, then he's sure not on ours. Vote [name of Democratic candidate]."

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IL-SEN

DSCC Ad: 'Mark Kirk Didn't Tell The Truth' About His Military Record (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 21, 2010, 4:34PM

DSCC ad, "Honor"

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has a new ad in the Illinois Senate race, with veterans attacking Republican nominee Mark Kirk for his past false statements about his military record, and his votes against combat bonuses and job training for veterans.

"Honor and integrity," says one veteran. "That's what military service is all about."

"But Mark Kirk didn't tell the truth about his," another says.

After veterans go through Kirk's various votes, one of them concludes: "Mark Kirk serves himself -- not us."

The TPM Poll Average gives Kirk 44.1%, Democratic nominee Alexi Giannoulias 42.3%, and Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones 3.6%.

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IL-SEN

IL-SEN Ad Attacks Kirk By Tying Him To Bush (VIDEO)

Eric Lach | October 20, 2010, 3:47PM

A new ad from Working for Us PAC in the Illinois Senate race attacks Republican Rep. Mark Kirk by painting him as a "yes man" to President George W. Bush.

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IL-SEN

PPP Poll: GOPer Kirk Leads In Tight IL-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | October 20, 2010, 3:45PM

IL-SEN candidates Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Rep. Mark Kirk (R)

A new PPP poll of the Illinois Senate race finds Republican Rep. Mark Kirk edging out Democratic state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, 42%-40%, with Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones earning 4% and Libertarian Mike Labno polling at 3%.

PPP last looked at this race in late- eptember, finding Kirk with a four point lead over Giannoulias, 40%-36%, while Jones pulled in a more noteworthy 8% and Labno earned 3%. When the latest survey asked respondents in a follow up question to suppose that the Republican and Democrat were the only candidates in the race, Kirk topped Giannoulias by one point, 46%-45%.

A Rasmussen poll released earlier today had the Kirk-Giannoulias-Jones matchup at 44%-40%-4%, with the Republican coming out on top.

When considering the four-candidate matchup, the TPM Poll Average shows a near deadlock between the two leading candidates: Kirk earns 41.1% versus Giannoulias's 41.0%, while Jones polls at 3.5% and Labno earns 2.6%. The margin of error for the latest survey is ±4.2 percentage points.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

IL-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Kirk Leads By Four Points In IL-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 20, 2010, 9:42AM

Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL)

The new Rasmussen poll of the Illinois Senate race gives Republican Mark Kirk a narrow lead against Democrat Alexi Giannoulias, for the Senate seat formerly held by President Obama.

The numbers: Kirk 44%, Giannoulias 40%, and Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones 4%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from last week, Giannoulias had 44%, Kirk 43%, and Jones 4%.

From the pollster's analysis: "Highlighting the closeness of this contest is the fact that Kirk and Giannoulias have now run within four points or less of each other in 10 surveys since early June. Jones' support has held steady at four percent (4%) for the last three surveys."

This new poll was conducted entirely before last night's acrimonious debate, but it does provide a useful baseline measurement for any potential changes down the line. The TPM Poll Average gives Kirk 44.1%, Giannoulias 42.3%, and Jones 3.6%.

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IL-SEN

Giannoulias To Kirk: 'You're Trying To Suppress The African-American Vote'

Eric Lach | October 19, 2010, 9:52PM

IL-SEN candidates Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Rep. Mark Kirk (R)

Tonight's debate between the candidates for Senate in Illinois featured long discussions of the issues and controversies that have dogged both candidates during the entire campaign -- and also touched on some of the hot political issues of the day, including campaign spending and the federal budget. Often, the candidates went right from answering a question to attacking the other.

But in the most controversial moment of the evening, the candidates argued over recent charges that the Rep. Mark Kirk (R) was working to suppress African-American turnout.

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IL-SEN

Giannoulias Ad: Kirk's 'Whole Political Career Is Probably A Lie' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 15, 2010, 4:53PM

Alexi Giannoulias campaign ad, "My Left Foot"

Democratic candidate Alexi Giannoulias has a new ad in the hard-fought Illinois Senate race, and it pulls no punches in presenting Republican candidate Mark Kirk as an out-of-touch Washington politician who lied about his military service.

"Mark Kirk lied about going to war, opposed middle-class tax cuts,and said unemployment's not that big an issue," the announcer says. "What do you say?"

Clips of various folks, depicted as average people on the street, are shown talking to the camera and saying such things as: "I don't think he has a clue about unemployment," "He's been in Washington too long," and "His whole political career is probably a lie," and more.

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IL-SEN

Poll: GOPer Kirk and Dem Giannoulias Nearly Tied In IL-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | October 13, 2010, 4:01PM

IL-SEN candidates Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Rep. Mark Kirk (R)

New poll, same story-- the Illinois Senate race between Democratic state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias and Republican Rep. Mark Kirk is really, really close.

A new survey of the race finds Kirk leading Giannoulias 37.3%-36.8%, with Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones earning 3.3% and Libertarian Mike Labno polling at 1.8%. The Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale conducted the poll; it is the first time they have surveyed the contest.

In the last two months of polling, no survey has seen the Kirk-Giannoulias matchup produce a margin greater than four points. When considering the four-candidate matchup, the TPM Poll Average shows a near tie between the two leading candidates: Kirk earns 38.7% versus Giannoulias's 38.0%, while Jones polls at 3.2% and Labno earns 2.0%. The margin of error for the latest survey is ±3.5 percentage points.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

IL-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Dem Giannoulias Up 1 In IL-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | October 12, 2010, 4:51PM

IL-SEN candidates Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Rep. Mark Kirk (R)

A newly released Rasmussen survey of the Illinois Senate race shows Democratic state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias edging out Republican Rep. Mark Kirk, 44%-43%, with Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones polling at 4%.

When Rasmussen took a look at this race last week, Kirk was leading with 45%, while Giannoulias earned 41% and Jones pulled in 4%. In the last two months of polling, no survey has produced a margin greater than four points separating the Democratic and Republican nominees.

The TPM Poll Average shows a near tie between the two leading candidates: Kirk earns 43.8% versus Giannoulias's 43.7%, while Jones polls at 4.1%. The margin of error for the latest survey is ±4.0 percentage points.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

IL-SEN

Giannoulias: Being A 'Fiscal Hawk' May Be Kirk's Biggest 'Whopper'

Eric Lach | October 10, 2010, 12:17PM

IL Senate candidates Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Mark Kirk (R)

Locked in a tight race, the candidates for Senate in Illinois appeared on Meet The Press today, and debated issues including tax cuts, health care and spending. Democrat Alexi Giannoulias and Republican Rep. Mark Kirk also faced questions about the scandals that have marred each of their campaigns.

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IL-SEN

Poll: GOPer Kirk Leads Dem Giannoulias By 1 In IL-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | October 4, 2010, 4:01PM

IL-SEN candidates Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Rep. Mark Kirk (R)

A newly released poll of the Illinois Senate race shows Republican Rep. Mark Kirk edging out Democratic state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, 42%-41%, with Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones polling at 4% and Libertarian candidate Mike Labno earning 3%.

The latest numbers are from Suffolk University's first poll on the race. Last week saw a Chicago Tribune poll give Giannoulias a 38%-36% lead over Kirk, while a CNN/Time survey had the Democrat ahead by one, 43%-42%.

The TPM Poll Average of the matchup shows Kirk leading Giannoulias 41.3%-40.0%. The margin of error for the latest survey is ±4.4 percentage points.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

IL-SEN

Fox News Poll: Kirk Leads Giannoulias By Two Points In IL-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | September 28, 2010, 1:16PM

IL-SEN candidates Rep. Mark Kirk (R) and state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D)

The new Fox News poll of the Illinois Senate race gives Republican Mark Kirk a narrow lead over Democrat Alexi Giannoulias -- with quite a few protest votes for the Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones.

The numbers: Kirk 42%, Giannoulias 40%, and Jones 7%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error. There is no previous Fox News poll of this race. However, this poll was conducted through a Rasmussen offshoot, Pulse Opinion Research, which performs made-to-order robopolls. In the previous Rasmussen poll from last week, Kirk had 44%, Giannoulias 41%, and Jones 4%.

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IL-SEN

Giannoulias Launches Website Opposing Extending Bush Tax Cuts For Wealthiest Americans

Eric Lach | September 22, 2010, 3:10PM

IL-SEN candidate Alexi Giannoulias

Illinois Senate nominee Alexi Giannoulias (D) is coming out strongly against extending the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy, launching a website today dedicated to opposing them, Greg Sargent reports.

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IL-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: GOPer Kirk Leads Dem Giannoulias By 3 In IL-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | September 22, 2010, 3:07PM

IL-SEN candidates Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Rep. Mark Kirk (R)

A new Rasmussen poll of the Illinois Senate race shows Republican Rep. Mark Kirk on top of Democratic state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias 44%-41%, with Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones pulling in 4%.

When Rasmussen looked at the race on September 7, Kirk led 41%-37%. The TPM Poll Average of the matchup shows a very tight race-- Kirk is ahead of Giannoulias 41.3%-40.0%.

The margin of error for the latest survey is ±4.0 percentage points.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

American Crossroads

Rove-Backed Group Pushing Out More Ads In Senate Races (VIDEOS)

Eric Kleefeld | September 22, 2010, 3:04PM

Ad from American Crossroads, "Not My Job"

American Crossroads, the Karl Rove-backed group that is spending heavily on ads for this year's Senate races, has been rolling out a whole bunch of ads in some top races.

An ad against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) reprises a theme from an earlier Crossroads ad, hammering Reid for his past remarks on the Senate floor about how "only" 36,000 jobs had been lost in a previous month, which was "really good."

Then the announcer uses a clever turn of phrase: "Harry Reid. Extremely out of touch with Nevada." Look at that as a clear effort to counter Reid's ads, which have derided Republican nominee Sharron Angle as being "extreme."

The TPM Poll Average puts Reid ahead by 47.2%-44.0%.

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IL-SEN

Dem Ad Quotes Mark Kirk: 'I Have A Very High-Income District' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | September 21, 2010, 10:59AM

Ad from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, "Problems"

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has a new ad in the Illinois Senate race, attacking Republican Congressman Mark Kirk for being out of touch on unemployment.

"We've heard a lot about Mark Kirk's problems lately," the announcer says, referring to Kirk's past misstatements about his military record. "But Kirk doesn't know much about ours.

"On unemployment, Kirk said, 'I've heard very little...I have a very high-income district.' And he voted six times against extending benefits for laid-off workers, and five times to block increasing the minimum wage -- while voting to raise his own pay six times."

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2010 elections

Forget January: Several New Senators May Be Seated Shortly After November Election

Eric Kleefeld | September 14, 2010, 8:43AM

Mark Kirk

This year's Senate elections are widely expected to produce substantial Republican gains in the Senate, producing a much less Democratic chamber come January. But in fact, some races present the possibility of the GOP making gains almost immediately, with the winners (of whatever party) sworn in soon after the election.

The reason is simple: These are special elections, with current incumbent members who were appointed to fill vacancies. (Only one sitting member in these seats, Dem Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, is seeking election -- the others are open seats). Just as the upset win of Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) in this past January's special election enabled the GOP to immediately improve from 40 seats to 41 -- and change the entire dynamic of the Senate -- any additional GOP members from a few key states could immediately strengthen the GOP for the lame duck session between the election and January.

Indeed, at least two candidates, Republican Mark Kirk of Illinois and Republican Christine O'Donnell of Delaware, have expressly campaigned on the prospect of taking office immediately. While it remains unclear just how much Democrats would be able to do in a lame-duck session that they couldn't do now -- after all, Republicans would be able to filibuster any major policy changes until January already, regardless of how many new Republican senators are seated right after the election -- it nevertheless has lingered as a political issue.

So let's take a look at these races.

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2010 elections

TPM's Top 10 Senate Races To Watch

Brian Beutler | September 13, 2010, 8:35AM

Kentucky Senate candidates Jack Conway and Rand Paul talk with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

Campaign season doesn't really heat up until September ... which means now. That means all the scandals and ads and ups and downs you've heard and read about in the last several months were just stage-setters. Most voters really begin paying attention now.

It's looking like a tough year for Senate Democrats, almost of whom are polling below 50 percent. Several weeks ago, many Republicans -- including NRSC Chair John Cornyn -- thought Republicans wouldn't be able to retake the Senate. Today, it's a distinct possibility. There are a number of critical races, but you should really keep an eye on these 10.

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IL-SEN

Rasmussen: Kirk Leads IL-SEN Race

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 9, 2010, 1:14PM

IL-SEN candidates Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Rep. Mark Kirk (R)

Republican Mark Kirk is locked in a tight race for the Illinois Senate seat once occupied by President Obama. That's according to a new poll from Rasmussen today showing Kirk leading Democratic nominee Alexi Giannoulias 41-37. Green party nominee LeAlan Jones draws 9% in the poll. There is no past Rasmussen poll of the three-way race for direct comparison.

The TPM Poll Average for the Giannoulias-Kirk matchup shows the Republican ahead 41.3-40.0. Past polling with Jones included has shown the Green party candidate drawing about 10% of the vote. Most observers say that takes away from potential Giannoulias support.

The Rasmussen survey of 750 likely voters in Illinois was conducted Sept. 7. The poll has a margin of error of 4.0%.

2010 elections

It Ain't Pretty: Senate Dems Struggle To Hold 59 Seats (CHARTS)

Christina Bellantoni | September 7, 2010, 12:35PM

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV)

Just how bad is it out there? Consider the TPM charts below showing the poll averages from each of the elections for Senate seats currently held by Democrats. Not a single Democrat in a contested race sits above 50 percent. Worse yet, many of them are outright losing to Republicans.

Election Day is still weeks off, and anything, and we mean anything, can happen to change these numbers on a dime. And it's important to remember that there are so many more factors to consider than just polls, which, as we've proven again and again, can be wrong. Many of these Democratic incumbents have mountains of cash in the bank and President Obama has continued to be a massive fundraising strength for Democratic senators despite his unpopularity nationally. Plus, some of these Dems are up against barely-ready-for-prime-time Republicans with extreme views, and those numbers seem like they could waver.

But if every TPM Poll Average culled from our PollTracker and seen below were to hold on through Nov. 2, Democrats would lose at least five seats, and possibly as many as eight.

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IL-SEN

Poll: Kirk And Giannoulias Tied In IL-SEN

Eric Lach | September 3, 2010, 11:25AM

IL-SEN candidates Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Rep. Mark Kirk (R)

A new Tribune/WGN-TV poll of the Illinois Senate race shows Democrat Alexi Giannoulias and Republican Mark Kirk tied at 34% each, with 22% of voters still undecided.

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Stem cell research

Moderate GOPers In Tough Spot Over Stem Cell Research

Christina Bellantoni | August 30, 2010, 10:52AM

Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE)

Democrats are sounding increasingly confident they can work out a bipartisan legislative fix to get around a judge's order halting all stem cell research, but in an election year where everything matters, are moderate Republicans really going to go along with the majority party? And might that cost one GOPer his Senate bid?

The two clearest examples are Republican Senate candidates Rep. Mark Kirk (IL) and Rep. Mike Castle (DE), who Democrats told TPM last week they expect to continue to support embryonic stem cell research as they have before.

But Castle is locked in a tough and nasty fight with Christine O'Donnell, a tea party favorite who is looking to become the next conservative insurgent to topple the establishment's pick. With the O'Donnell campaign targeting evangelical voters in advance of a Sept. 14 primary that could have fewer than 50,000 voters, this could be the issue to turn the race.

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'Ground Zero Mosque'

Giannoulias Supports Islamic Cultural Center Near Ground Zero

Eric Lach | August 17, 2010, 1:25PM

IL-SEN candidate Alexi Giannoulias

Democratic Illinois Senate nominee Alexi Giannoulias has come out in support of the Cordoba House project near Ground Zero in New York City, the Associated Press reports.

Read more »

Alexi Giannoulias

PPP Poll: Giannoulias Leads Kirk By 2 In Illinois Senate Race

Eric Lach | August 17, 2010, 12:57PM

IL Senate candidates Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Mark Kirk (R)

A new PPP poll of the Illinois Senate shows Democratic state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias with a two-point lead over Republican Rep. Mark Kirk, 37%-35%. Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones pulls in 9%.

Read more »

IL-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Dem Giannoulias And GOPer Kirk Tied In Illinois Senate Race

Marc Kilstein | August 11, 2010, 10:17AM

IL Senate candidates Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Mark Kirk (R)

A new Rasmussen poll of the Illinois Senate race out this morning has Democratic state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias and Republican Rep. Mark Kirk deadlocked, 40%-40%.

The candidates, vying for Barack Obama's former Senate seat, have been within two points of each other in the last three Rasmussen polls conducted. A July 26 poll had Giannoulias with a slim two-point advantage, 43%-41%, while an earlier July poll gave the Democratic hopeful a one-point lead, 40%-39%.

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IL-SEN

Giannoulias Ad: Kirk A Liar Who Voted For Bush Policies (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | August 9, 2010, 11:03AM

A new ad from Sen. candidate Alexi Giannoulias (D-IL), attacking his opponent, Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL).

Democratic Illinois Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias has a new ad in his state's Senate race, combining two key narratives: He's g after Republican Congressman Mark Kirk for being a liar, and for being tied to former President George W. Bush.

The ad begins with news snippets of Kirk's embellished statements about his military record, along with the condemnations that he had received from newspapers. "Now, typical Washington politician Kirk is lying about Alexi Giannoulias in ads denounced as smears," the announcer says. "In D.C. 20 years, Kirk voted for the Bush policies that wrecked the economy, and then said unemployment's not a 'big issue.'"

The TPM Poll Average gives Kirk a very narrow edge of 41.1%-40.6%.

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IL-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Dem Giannoulias Has Slim Lead Over Kirk In Illinois Senate Race

Thomas Rhiel | July 28, 2010, 9:01AM

IL Senate candidates Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Mark Kirk (R)

Rasmussen's out with a new poll of the Illinois Senate race this morning, and it shows Democrat Alexi Giannoulias with a slim 43%-41% lead over Republican Rep. Mark Kirk in the race for Barack Obama's old Senate seat.

Giannoulias is in a slightly better position than he was in the last Rasmussen survey, which showed him leading Kirk 40%-39%, but he's not a particularly popular candidate. The Rasmussen poll shows him with a favorable rating of 37% compared to Kirk's 46%.

The TPM Poll Average of the race shows Kirk still leading Giannoulias 41.1%-40.6%. The margin of error for the latest Rasmussen survey is ±4.0 percentage points.

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2010 elections

DNC Seeks The Next 'Macaca Moment' With Help From Netroots (VIDEO)

Christina Bellantoni | July 23, 2010, 5:29PM

DNC Executive Director Jen O'Malley Dillon

Las Vegas -- When liberal activists and progressive bloggers took their seats today for a panel on the 2010 elections, they found fliers with instructions about how to track Republican candidates and upload unflattering video for the Democratic National Committee to use during this fall's races.

The DNC's "Accountability Project," which we first told you about last month, allows voters to be their own trackers in races across the nation. DNC executive director Jen O'Malley Dillon told party supporters in an email announcing the new effort they could help capture the next "macaca" moment, a reference to former Sen. George Allen. Allen (R-VA) was unseated in 2006 in part because a video went viral thanks to the then-newly strong netroots movement.

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IL-SEN

Mark Kirk: I Support Elena Kagan's Nomination For SCOTUS

Eric Kleefeld | July 23, 2010, 11:23AM

Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL)

Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL), the GOP's nominee for the Illinois Senate seat formerly held by President Obama, has now stated his support for the Supreme Court nomination of Elena Kagan, and that he would vote to confirm her if he were in the Senate right now. The move is seemingly a part of Kirk's effort to appeal to voters in the center, having worked hard to present himself as a moderate and independent-minded Republican.

"With regard to Solicitor General Kagan, I would support her nomination. Ms. Kagan appears to be modest and thoughtful not because she expected this nomination but because she is modest and thoughtful," Kirk said in a statement. "Under the Constitution, only the President can make this nomination and Solicitor General Kagan is one of the more careful nominees he could have picked."

The TPM Poll Average gives Kirk a narrow lead of 41.3%-38.9% over Democratic state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. Both candidates have suffered from bad publicity. In Giannoulias's case, it's the failure of his family's bank, and for Kirk it's his history of having made false statements about his military service.

Barack Obama

Obama To Headline August Giannoulias Fundraiser In Chicago

Eric Lach | July 19, 2010, 1:39PM

IL-SEN candidate Alexi Giannoulias

Illinois Democratic Senate nominee Alexi Giannoulias is getting some big help in his quest to win Barack Obama's old seat: Barack Obama.

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