KY-SEN

PPP Poll: Goodbye Time For Conway, As Rand Paul Way Ahead

Eric Kleefeld | October 31, 2010, 5:56PM

KY candidates for U.S Senate Jack Conway (D) and Rand Paul (R)

The new Public Policy Polling (D) survey of the Kentucky Senate race gives a huge lead to Republican nominee Rand Paul. And it also suggests that Democrat Jack Conway's late gambit of attacking Paul's religious background and Aqua-Buddhist college years only backfired in the end.

The numbers: Paul 55%, Conway 40%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3.1% margin of error. In the previous PPP survey from last week, Paul led by 53%-40%.

That previous poll had also indicated that voters didn't like the Aqua Buddha ad. The pollster's analysis goes a bit further, showing how Conway's negative final push hasn't worked:

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KY-SEN

Is It Still A Race In KY-SEN? Polls Say No. Dems Say Yes, We Can

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 29, 2010, 1:01PM

Kentucky Senate candidate Jack Conway (D)

Jack Conway is down, his campaign says, but he's not out yet. The Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky is facing a slew of new public polls showing him down by a significant margin to Republican Rand Paul, but his campaign tells me voters are just now starting to pay attention to the race that's been a top focus of national press for at least a month now. That puts Conway in a good position to pull off the upset win, his campaign says.

"I trust our private internal polls, which put us anywhere...between 2 and 7 points [down]," Conway spokesperson John Collins told me today. "Which is, I think, where we want to be: within striking distance."

Collins isn't the only Conway supporter who apparently thinks there's still a race in the Bluegrass State. Former President Bill Clinton will stump for Conway in Kentucky on Monday, just a day before voters make their choice.

Public polls make Clinton's push and team Conway's read a little tough to swallow -- but not impossible. New robopolls from SurveyUSA and Rasmussen as well as a new live telephone survey from a Kentucky cable channel show Paul with a healthy lead ranging from about eight to around 12 points. The last polls from the three, taken a few weeks ago, showed Paul with a lead from 2 to 11 points.

The TPM Poll Average shows Paul leading 49.5-42.5.

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KY-SEN

CNN Poll: Rand Paul Leads By 7 Points In KY-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 27, 2010, 6:43PM

KY candidates for U.S Senate Jack Conway (D) and Rand Paul (R)

The new CNN poll of the Kentucky Senate race gives Republican Rand Paul a seven-point lead over Democrat Jack Conway among likely voters.

The numbers: Paul 50%, Conway 43%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3.5% margin of error.

The previous poll from early September did not have a comparable likely-voter sample, but had Paul and Conway tied 46%-46% among a wider filter of registered voters. In this latest poll, Paul leads 46%-44% among registered voters.

The TPM Poll Average gives Paul a lead of 48.9%-42.7%.

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KY-SEN

Conway Attacks Paul On Civil Rights In New Ad (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 27, 2010, 1:22PM

KY Sen. candidates Rand Paul (R) and Jack Conway (D)

Months after Rand Paul met the nation with his epic gaffe/completely intentional/let's just pretend they never happened comments about the 1964 Civil Rights Act on the Rachel Maddow Show, Paul's Democratic opponent in the Kentucky Senate race is turning what he said into a campaign ad.

Jack Conway's latest TV ad -- coming in the midst of criticism over the stomping of a MoveOn.org activist by a former Paul county coordinator -- focuses on Conway's statement that "when I see a wrong, I try to right it."

The stomping incident is not directly mentioned in the ad, but Conway's camp has attempted to make political hay out of Paul's response to the controversy. Conway's campaign says Paul's initial response wasn't strong enough (in other words, when he saw a "wrong," he didn't "right it" immediately) and pressured Paul to say and do more in response. Paul has issued several statements on the incident, including one yesterday where his campaign said it was "extremely disappointed in, and condemns the actions of" the supporter who did the stomping.

The Maddow moment, however, is mentioned in this new ad, suggesting that the general election fight will end where it began -- with critics asking Paul to clarify just exactly what it is he thinks about Civil Rights.

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Tim Profitt

Kentucky Stomping Victim: 'Important That Stomper Be Held Accountable' (VIDEO)

Brian Beutler | October 27, 2010, 9:53AM

The MoveOn activist who was tackled and stomped on by Rand Paul supporters Monday night says she'll do whatever she can to see that her chief assailant, Tim Profitt, is held accountable to the fullest extent of the law.

"I plan to see the process through," Lauren Valle told Keith Olbermann last night. "I think that it`s very important that people be held responsible for this sort of behavior."

Yesterday, Valle told reporters she wasn't certain yet whether she'd pursue civil action against Profitt. However he has been summoned to court, where a judge will determine whether criminal charges are warranted in the case.

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KY-SEN

Kentucky Stomper: I Stomped Because Of Back Pain

Brian Beutler | October 26, 2010, 9:03PM

Tim Profitt of Paris, Ky., is joined by other demonstrators as he attends a rally in support of Republican U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning in Lexington, Ky., Tuesday, March 2, 2010. The rally also drew demonstrators opposed to Bunning's action in holding up a $10 billion spending bill because it would add to the deficit. (AP Photo/Ed Reinke)

The former Rand Paul volunteer who stomped on the head of a prone MoveOn activist tells a local CBS affiliate he would've never put his foot on the victim at all if it wasn't for his bad back.

According to WKYT, "[Tim] Profitt explained that he used his foot to try and keep her down because he can't bend over because of back problems. He also says police were alerted to watch her before Paul arrived because people in the crown recognized her as someone who may try and pull a stunt."

Video footage of the altercation clearly shows Lauren Valle subdued on the ground, held by multiple large men.

KY-SEN

Conway Spox: Will Rand Paul Apologize To Stomping Victim?

Brian Beutler | October 26, 2010, 6:00PM

Kentucky Senate candidates Jack Conway (D) and Rand Paul (R)

Jack Conway spokesman John Collins sent over a statement calling out Rand Paul, who has apparently not reached out to apologize to assault victim Lauren Valle.

"We are still waiting for Rand Paul to apologize to the victim of this attack," Collins says. "A boot stomp to the head of a woman is never appropriate,  Rand should apologize to her, stop blaming others, and identify the others involved in this thuggish behavior and
disassociate his campaign from them immediately."

Intentionally or not, the language in this statement is similar to the language Conway used to question Rand Paul's college antics, which included hazing a female friend by placing her in a stream and telling her pray to "Aqua Buddha"

Rand Paul

Lexington Police Serving Former Rand Paul Volunteer With Criminal Summons

Brian Beutler | October 26, 2010, 4:36PM

Tim Profitt of Paris, Ky., is joined by other demonstrators as he attends a rally in support of Republican U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning in Lexington, Ky., Tuesday, March 2, 2010. The rally also drew demonstrators opposed to Bunning's action in holding up a $10 billion spending bill because it would add to the deficit. (AP Photo/Ed Reinke)

The Lexington police have just announced that they've served Tim Profitt -- Rand Paul's former Bourbon County coordinator -- with a criminal summons for assaulting a MoveOn activist outside of the Kentucky Senate debate last night.

"Today, October 26, 2010, detectives identified the suspect, involved in the assault, as Tim Profitt," reads a statement from public information officer Sherelle Roberts. "Mr. Profitt is currently being served with a criminal summons ordering him to appear before a Fayette County District Court Judge."

The victim, Lauren Valle, claims that the attack -- during which she was pulled to the ground and stomped, resulting in a concussion -- was premeditated.

KY-SEN

Kentucky Stomping Victim Says Assailants Recognized Her, Premeditated Attack

Brian Beutler | October 26, 2010, 3:50PM

KY-SEN candidate Rand Paul (R)

The woman who was dragged to the ground and stomped by Rand Paul supporters outside of the Kentucky Senate debate last says her assailants recognized her as a regular anti-Paul protester and premeditated their attack.

"The Rand Paul campaign knows me and they have expressed their distaste for my work before," Lauren Valle, 23, told TPM and two other reporters on a conference call this afternoon.

According to Valle, several men surrounded her before Paul arrived at the event in Lexington last night.

"They surrounded me," she said. "There were about five of them, they started motioning to each other, and they got behind me."

Valle says her partner, whom she identified as Alex, overheard the men threaten, "we're here to do crowd control and we might have to take someone out."

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Rand Paul

Kentucky Stomper Identified As Paul's (Now Former) Bourbon County Coordinator

Brian Beutler | October 26, 2010, 3:29PM

The Rand Paul campaign has just severed ties with their Bourbon County coordinator -- a man by the name of Tim Profitt -- who has identified himself as the supporter who stomped on the head and neck of a MoveOn activist outside of the Senate debate in Lexington, KY last night, according to Fox News.

Profitt apologized for the scuffle to the Associated Press this afternoon, and apparently told them that the camera angle made the incident appear worse than it really was.

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Rand Paul

Paul Condemns Kentucky Attack, Suggests He Knows Stomper's Identity

Brian Beutler | October 26, 2010, 2:18PM

Kentucky Senate Candidate Rand Paul (R)

Rand Paul's campaign has officially condemned his supporters for attacking a MoveOn protester outside of the Kentucky Senate debate last night in Lexington. Interestingly, though, his statement suggests that he knows who perpetrated the attack -- information which the Lexington police say they're still looking for.

"The Paul for Senate campaign is extremely disappointed in, and condemns the actions of a supporter last night outside the KET debate," the statement reads. "Whatever the perceived provocation, any level of aggression or violence is deplorable, and will not be tolerated by our campaign. The Paul campaign has disassociated itself from the volunteer who took part in this incident, and once again urges all activists -- on both sides -- to remember that their political passions should never manifest themselves in physical altercations of any kind."

Emphasis ours. About an hour ago, the Lexington police department's public information officer told me that developments in the case should be forthcoming, but that they still hadn't identified the men seen on the tape.

Rand Paul

Kentucky Attack Victim Suffers Concussion, Police Hope To Identify Suspects Today

Brian Beutler | October 26, 2010, 1:15PM

Kentucky Senate Candidate Rand Paul (R)

Another update for you on the situation developing in Lexington, KY, where a MoveOn supporter was attacked and stomped on by Rand Paul supporters

Sherelle Roberts, a public information officer for the Lexington division of police tells TPM that investigators have made no arrests and filed no charges in the case. But because the incident was caught on camera, officers are optimistic that a breakthrough is imminent.

"I think we're probably going to come up with something later today," Roberts said, adding that tips have been coming in literally from around the country about who the suspects in the attack might be. "Because it was captured on video, we have a good idea what happened [and] at this point there doesn't seem to be anything to justify how this incident unfolded."

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KY-SEN

Fox News Poll: Paul Ahead By 7 In KY-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 26, 2010, 10:54AM

KY Sen. candidate Rand Paul (R)

A new poll of the Kentucky Senate race from Fox News shows Republican Rand Paul leading Democrat Jack Conway 50-43.

The survey of 1,000 likely voters, conducted using Rasmussen's automated polling methods Saturday, shows voters slamming President Obama while still expressing some trepidations about Paul. This is the first Fox News poll of the race.

Seventy-two percent said they were either "dissatisfied" or "angry" about "the way the federal government is working" and 76% said President Obama's efforts have "not made much of a difference" or "hurt" Kentucky's economy.

That's not a great landscape for Democrat Jack Conway, especially when the poll shows 53% of those surveyed saying that the Democratic nominee "agrees with President Obama on issues too often." Just 26% said he agreed with the president "the right amount."

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Rand Paul

Paul Stops Short Of Condemning Attack On MoveOn Protester (VIDEO)

Brian Beutler | October 26, 2010, 10:38AM

On Fox News this morning, Rand Paul publicly discussed the attack that occurred last night in Lexington, KY before the Senate debate, when a number of his supporters dragged a MoveOn protester to the ground, and one stomped on her head. During his appearance, he called for civility, and described the incident as something that should not have happened. But he did not explicitly condemn the attack itself.

"We want everybody to be civil and want the issue, the campaign to be about issues," Paul said.

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KY-SEN

New Poll Shows Rand Paul Up 13 -- And Voters Don't Like Conway's Aqua Buddha Ad

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 26, 2010, 10:00AM

Rand Paul

Here's how the last couple weeks in the Kentucky Senate race were supposed to work for Democratic nominee Jack Conway: after pounding Republican nominee Rand Paul for his hybrid libertarian (read: strange) positions on Medicare, taxes and law enforcement, an ad focusing on Paul's alleged college shenanigans would seal the deal for Kentucky voters. Paul would be cast as an extremist outsider, too dangerous to risk a Senate seat on.

Cue the Fail Whale.

A new poll from PPP (D) suggests that Conway's strategy hasn't pleased voters. After weeks of putting Paul on the defensive, Conway now finds himself trailing Paul by 13 points.

Paul leads 53-40 in the poll of 900 likely voters, which was conducted by automated phone call Oct. 21-24. The last PPP poll, from mid-September, showed Paul leading 49-42. The Republican has nearly doubled his lead since, according to PPP.

Further, the poll found that most voters are aware of Conway's infamous "Aqua Buddha" ad (62% of those surveyed said they knew of it) and more than half -- 56% -- said it was "inappropriate." Just 15% said it was "appropriate."

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MoveOn

MoveOn Urges Paul To Condemn Kentucky Attack, Calls For Arrests

Brian Beutler | October 26, 2010, 9:53AM

Kentucky Senate Candidate Rand Paul (R)

Justin Ruben, Executive Director of MoveOn.org, says in an official statement, "We're appalled at the violent incident that occurred at the Kentucky Senate debate last night."

Numerous news reports clearly show that the young woman--a MoveOn supporter--was assaulted and pushed to the ground by Rand Paul supporters, where one man held her down while another stomped on her head. This kind of violence has no place in American society, much less at a peaceful political rally.

Our first concern is obviously Lauren's health and well being. She is recovering, and we will release more details as we have them. We are concerned that no arrests have yet been made, and we hope those responsible will be brought to justice quickly, and that Rand Paul will join us in condemning this horrible act.

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Rand Paul

New Footage Emerges Of MoveOn Activist Stomped By Rand Paul Supporter (VIDEO)

Brian Beutler | October 26, 2010, 9:40AM

Just a quick update on the developing story out of Lexington, Kentucky, where a protester affiliated with MoveOn was dragged to the ground and stomped by Rand Paul supporters ahead of last night's Senate debate.

We understand that the victim has left the hospital, but we don't have official word on her condition. We'll try and get you an update this morning.

Both campaigns have now reacted to the attack, which was caught on camera at multiple angles.

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Rand Paul

Rand Paul Supporter Stomps Head Of Female MoveOn Member Outside KY Debate (VIDEO)

Brian Beutler | October 25, 2010, 11:29PM

Josh Green flagged an incident that occurred outside of the Rand Paul-Jack Conway debate in Lexington, Kentucky Monday night that's already dominating the news in Kentucky and could easily make headlines nationally.

As the candidates arrived, a group of Paul supporters pulled a female MoveOn member to the ground and held her there as another Paul supporter stomped on the back of her head and neck.

According to the Louisville Courier Journal, "Lauren Valle of MoveOn.org approached Paul and tried to give him an "employee of the month award" from Republicorp...a fake business MoveOn created to symbolize what it says is the merger of the GOP and business interests controlling political speech."

The whole thing was caught on video. Watch:

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KY-SEN

Rand Paul: I Want To Be Just Like Jim Bunning

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 25, 2010, 9:00PM

KY Sen. candidate Rand Paul (R)

Kentucky voters got a look at some of the stark choices they will face on Nov. 2 in the final debate between Senate nominees Jack Conway (D) and Rand Paul (R). Though the debate -- a quiet, sit-down affair on Kentucky public television -- lacked some of the fireworks of the last meeting of the two men, there were plenty of barbs thrown around between Conway and Paul, and plenty of distinctions to be made between the two.

Perhaps the starkest came at the very end, when the debate moderator asked each nominee which Kentucky politician most inspired him. Conway named legendary Democratic Sen. Wendell Ford, who retired from the Senate after 25 years representing the Bluegrass State in the chamber. For a Democrat running for office in Kentucky, the choice was not a surprise.

Paul named the man whom he is vying to replace -- the irascible Republican Sen. Jim Bunning, who has come to represent perhaps the most stubborn of the opposition to legislative action in the Senate. He hailed Bunning's vote against TARP -- which most economists at the time said was necessary to prevent an economic collapse the likes of which the country had never seen -- as an example of heroism by Kentucky's retiring junior Senator.

Bunning "stood up and said the bank bailout was wrong," Paul said. "Many people can come later and say they would have opposed it, but he stood up and on principle voted the way he thought was right for Kentucky and I'm proud of him for that."

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KY-SEN

GOP Runs Its Own Aqua Buddha Spot In KY-SEN (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 25, 2010, 3:52PM

From a NRSC campaign ad, "Change the Subject"

You might think the Republicans want to move the Kentucky Senate race away from Aqua Buddha and back to something they'd rather talk about -- like, oh, anything else. But in a new TV ad the NRSC is dropping on the Bluegrass State, Republicans are trying to make hay out Democratic nominee Jack Conway's decision to turn tales of Republican Rand Paul's years in college against him.

Conway, of course, turned national attention to Kentucky with his ad calling on Paul to explain stories of his days at Baylor University first told in the pages of GQ. The stories include membership in a banned campus group that Baylor officials said "mocked Christianity" and a bizarre "hazing" incident that included Paul and a friend tying up a woman and putting her in a creek before asking her to pray to the god "Aqua Buddha."

The ad -- and Conway's decision to make Paul's years at Baylor a campaign issue -- drew fire from both sides. Paul and the Republicans condemned the spots as unfair, while some Democrats and reporters said they crossed the line and tried to hold Paul responsible for things he did as a teenager.

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KY-SEN

Conway Not Afraid To Make Final Kentucky Senate Debate About 'Aqua Buddha'

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 25, 2010, 2:20PM

KY Senate candidates Rand Paul (R) and Jack Conway (D)

No one knows just what will be discussed when Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Jack Conway meet in the final debate of the Kentucky Senate race tonight at 8 p.m. ET. But Conway's campaign told me today that if the moderator tonight wants to make the debate all about "Aqua Buddha," that's fine with them.

"We've said all along that Rand Paul needs to answer basic questions about the actions that he's taken," Conway spokesperson John Collins told me on a conference call with reporters this morning. Collins said that questions surrounding Paul's undergraduate years at Baylor University -- including his membership in a banned campus group and the infamous incident where Paul allegedly led a blindfolded and tied-up woman to a creek and asked her to worship "Aqua Buddha" -- remain unanswered, and suggested Conway is prepared to let the Baylor stories take over another Senate debate in Kentucky.

"If he would explain it as whatever the case is, I think it would just go away," Collins said.

A repeat of the Oct. 17 debate, which saw Paul storm off the stage without shaking Conway's hand after the Democrat kept asking him to explain Aqua Buddha, would probably make for exciting television, but it's not clear that it would be what either campaign wants at this point. Paul considered dropping out of tonight's debate on Kentucky's public television system over concerns that it would be a repeat of the Oct. 17 meeting between the two candidates. And Conway has spent the last few days talking about anything but Aqua Buddha, suggesting that his campaign is ready to move to another topic tonight, too.

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KY-SEN

Conway Attacks Paul On Economics In New Ad (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 23, 2010, 2:40PM

Kentucky Senate Candidate Rand Paul (R)

With the hours ticking down until voters in Kentucky choose their next U.S. Senator, Democratic nominee Jack Conway is hitting Republican Rand Paul over economic plans Conway's campaign says "would crush Kentucky families."

The ad is a dramatic shift in message from Conway's high-profile spot targeting Paul's years as an undergraduate at Baylor University. That ad has made "Aqua Buddha" one of the most memorable phrases of 2010 (just behind "Demonsheep" and "I'm not a witch," perhaps) and led to widespread and bipartisan criticism of Conway's campaign.

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KY-SEN

Rand Paul Will Meet Jack Conway In Final KY-SEN Debate

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 22, 2010, 2:58PM

KY Senate candidates Rand Paul (R) and Jack Conway (D)

After last Sunday's debate in the Kentucky Senate race basically devolved into name-calling and innuendo, Republican nominee Rand Paul said he wasn't sure if he'd participate in next week's final debate with Democrat Jack Conway.

That was Monday. Then all week, as Conway milked his Aqua Buddha ad for all it was worth, Paul milked his decision-making process about the final debate, too, with his campaign holding multiple press conferences surrounding the debate and Aqua Buddha. Today, Paul brought the drama to a close, agreeing to meet Conway on Oct. 25 in what will be the candidates' last face-to-face meeting before voters go to the polls.

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KY-SEN

Rand Paul Appears To Flatly Deny Aqua Buddha (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 21, 2010, 3:59PM

Under the continued pressure of Democratic questions about how he spent his years in the outsider Baylor University student group NoZe Brotherhood, Republican Kentucky Senate nominee Rand Paul has started to to respond to the claims about his college career leveled at him by his Democratic opponent, Jack Conway.

And for the first time I could find, he appears to be flatly denying the Aqua Buddha story. At first, Paul refused to address the incident -- in which an anonymous woman claims he and a friend tied her up, put her in a creek and asked her to worship "Aqua Buddha" as part of what the accuser calls "a hazing prank" -- at all, preferring to focus his attention on slamming Conway for making the story into a campaign commercial.

That changed slightly this week, when Paul took to the conservative airwaves and said, basically, he has no recollection of the Aqua Buddha incident.

In an interview with Fox's Megyn Kelly today, he repeated that 'I don't remember' claim at first -- but then appeared to refute the story completely.

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KY-SEN

Conway's New Groove: Dem Moving On From Aqua Buddha In KY-SEN? (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 21, 2010, 8:37AM

KY Senate candidate Jack Conway (D)

When it comes to Rand Paul's college career, it seems like Jack Conway's work here is done. Having turned a weird anecdote from one of Paul's schoolmates at Baylor into a national firestorm, Conway seems ready to pull the Kentucky Senate race back toward something more in keeping with standard electoral politics.

Conway's already suggested he doesn't see Aqua Buddha as his closing argument, having told reporters that the now-infamous ad will likely be off the air by the end of this week. That means it's time to get back to what Conway was doing before the ad dropped -- namely, hitting the Republican Paul over and over for his semi-Libertarianism.

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KY-SEN

Mason-Dixon Poll: Rand Paul Ahead By 5 In KY-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 20, 2010, 6:41PM

KY Senate candidate Rand Paul (R)

Republican Rand Paul has a slim lead over Democrat Jack Conway in the latest public poll to come out of the Kentucky Senate race. Conducted by respected pollster Mason-Dixon, the poll shows Paul leading the race 48-43.

This is the first Mason-Dixon poll of the Kentucky Senate race. The survey of likely voters was conducted Monday and Tuesday, at the high point of Conway's Aqua Buddha kerfuffle, produced when the Democrat ran an ad calling out Paul for alleged shenanigans while he was an undergraduate at Baylor University.

Other recent polling has shown Paul ahead as well, but has also shown Conway with the momentum heading into the final days of the campaign. The TPM Poll Average shows Paul ahead 47.1-42.6.

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KY-SEN

Rand Paul's Wife Doesn't Like The Aqua Buddha Ad Either

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 20, 2010, 5:00PM

Kelley and Rand Paul

Kentucky's Republican nominee for Senate, Rand Paul, isn't the only Paul upset over Democrat Jack Conway's notorious Aqua Buddha ad.

"I am truly shocked by Conway's ads questioning Rand's faith based on nothing more than anonymous accusations from nearly three decades ago," Kelley Paul told reporters today, according to a report from CNN's Peter Hamby.

Paul said that she and her husband have "attended a Presbyterian Church in Bowling Green for nearly two decades" and are both "devoted Christians."

She claimed that Conway's ad was an attack on her family, one she appeared to find reprehensible.

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KY-SEN

Finally, Rand Paul Starts Talking About Aqua Buddha (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 20, 2010, 1:03PM

It took a couple months of chatter and a nasty ad from Jack Conway, but Rand Paul is finally opening up about that Aqua Buddha story. Sort of.

The tale, first told in GQ in August, has become the centerpiece of the Kentucky Senate race in recent days, with Democrat Conway calling on the Republican Paul to explain why a woman is accusing him of tying her up, putting her in a creek and asking her to pray to "Aqua Buddha" while both were students at Baylor University.

Since the story broke, Paul has basically ignored it, dismissing it as a tale told by an anonymous source and fomented by the Conway camp. Now, with polls tightening and the national media transfixed by Conway's ad, Paul is being forced to address the topic in national interviews.

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Social Security

Sestak Joins Pledge To Oppose Social Security Cuts

Brian Beutler | October 20, 2010, 9:18AM

Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA)

Senate candidate Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) is the latest to join the progressive petition opposing any cuts to Social Security.

"Joe joined the statement at SocialSecurityProtectors.com and opposes any effort that would not maintain present benefits," his spokesman says. "We know that two-thirds of retirees rely on Social Security for most of their retirement income and the system can be protected without risking seniors' retirement savings in the stock market. As one example of how to address solvency without harming current benefits, a return to the tax rates of the Clinton era (when we created 23 million jobs) for the top two percent of earners - the wealthiest of Americans who received the majority of the tax cuts of the Bush era (when we created zero net jobs) - would cover Social Security's shortfall over the next 75 years."

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KY-SEN

Kentucky Station Pulls NRSC Spot For Inaccuracy

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 19, 2010, 4:23PM

KY Senate candidate Jack Conway (D)

A Kentucky television station has taken down an NRSC ad aimed at Democratic Senate nominee Jack Conway, TPM has learned.

WHAS-TV general manger Mark Pimentel told me today that the ad -- in which the Republicans try to connect Conway to cap-and-trade proposals -- was pulled after the Republicans could not prove its veracity.

Conway's campaign had argued that the spot incorrectly painted Conway as a supporter of cap-and-trade, which on a number of occasions (including an interview with me) he has adamantly said he does not.

That argument appears to have won the day.

"The ad was pulled based on the documentation both sources provided," Pimentel told me.

"The Republicans offered a second sourcing when the first failed to convince us, but that failed as well as it contained no quotes from Jack Conway that proved their point," he said.

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KY-SEN

'Aqua Buddha' TV Ad Could End This Week, Conway Says

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 19, 2010, 4:18PM

From a Conway campaign ad, "Why?"

Kentucky Democratic Senate nominee Jack Conway told reporters today that the much-discussed Aqua Buddha ad he's running as an attack on Republican Rand Paul could come down a week before voters head to the polls.

The AP reports that Conway said the "ad questioning the tea party candidate's affiliation during college with a group that mocked Christianity was only intended to run five to seven days" in the first place. Conway said "he doesn't feel pressured" to pull down the ad, which has drawn criticism from both sides of the aisle.

Conway has not been shy in defending the spot, or the strategy of using Paul's years in an undergraduate society that was banned from Baylor University for mocking the school's Baptist foundations against the Republican.

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KY-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Conway Gaining Steam In KY-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 19, 2010, 1:14PM

Kentucky senatorial candidate Jack Conway (D)

A new poll from Rasmussen -- not usually the first pollster Democrats look to for good news -- shows that Democrat Jack Conway has Republican Rand Paul on the run in the Kentucky Senate race. The new poll shows Paul leading by just five, a significant drop from the last Rasmussen poll which showed Paul up by 11.

In the new numbers, Paul is ahead 47-42. The poll of likely voters was taken yesterday using Rasmussen's robo-poll system, meaning the survey came as controversy over Conway's latest tactics reached a fever pitch. The last Rasmussen poll was taken Sept. 29, before Conway's attacks on Paul's college career and in the midst of the war over Paul's position on Medicare. That poll showed Paul ahead 49-38.

If the Rasmussen poll is any judge, Conway's plan of attack appears to be working. As the pollster notes in its analysis, the new poll is Conway's "best showing since June."

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KY-SEN

Aqua Buddha Victim Speaks On Conway Ad, Paul's Past

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 19, 2010, 11:40AM

From a Conway campaign ad, "Why?"

The woman who says she was once blindfolded, tied up, deposited in a creek and asked to worship 'Aqua Buddha' by an impetuous young Rand Paul now says the ad Democrats are using to highlight the incident in an attempt to tear down the Republican Paul in the Kentucky Senate race is "over the top" but essentially true.

Greg Sargent just interviewed the woman, who has remained anonymous since her tale of her and Paul's undergraduate years at Baylor University first appeared. She told him she's "disappointed" that Conway is making the tale "into a central issue," but said that fundamentally the story told in Conway's ad is accurate on the facts of the event, if not the intentions of Paul and his compatriot.

"The tone of [the narrator's] voice sounds more ominous than it actually was," she told Sargent. "The way the person is talking, it sounds like [Paul] is some kind of evil-worshipping person who's a little bit more threatening than perhaps he really is."

The woman again characterized the incident as "a hazing prank" and said her reasons for coming forward were not to paint Paul as nefarious, but as someone who may be more than he seems at first glance.

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Jack Conway

Six Brutal Ads That Put Conway's Aqua-Buddha Segment To Shame

Brian Beutler | October 19, 2010, 8:51AM

Kentucky Senate candidates Jack Conway and Rand Paul talk with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

The campaign season was rocked this weekend when Senate hopeful Jack Conway (D) unveiled an ad raising questions about the sincerity of his opponent Rand Paul's faith in the deeply Christian state of Kentucky.

The ad quickly became the most contentious of the cycle. On Sunday, the two met for their second-to-last scheduled debate, which ended with Paul refusing to shake Conway's hand and threatening to skip their final encounter.

As is common when Democrats punch below the belt, the episode inspired an earnest round of handwringing among party members and progressive commentators, some of whom went to go so far as to call Conway's segment "illiberal" and "despicable."

Looking back on the past several weeks, though, there have been a number of ads (both Democratic and Republican) that are -- pick your adjective -- harsher, sleazier, bolder and more damning. Here are our top six.

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KY-SEN

Jack Conway Defends Aqua Buddha Strategy (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 18, 2010, 6:42PM

Kentucky got a visit from MSNBC's Chris Matthews today -- just in time for the irascible host to grill the Democratic Senate nominee over his new attacks on Republican opponent Rand Paul's college career.

Matthews picked up on Paul's line of defense against Conway today, asking Conway why he's insinuating that Paul is not a Christian.

"I'm not questioning his faith," Conway told Matthews. "I'm questioning his actions."

Matthews also went after Conway for using the Aqua Buddha story in his recent attack ad. Matthews pointed out that the story comes from an anonymous source and characterized the tale as possibly "one of these weird college hazing things."

Conway stood his ground. "In any number of instances, I don't think he's told the truth," the Democrat said, referring to Paul's refusal to discuss the Aqua Buddha tale.

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KY-SEN

Conway Ad Calls Out 'Obama's EPA' (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 18, 2010, 6:16PM

Ad from Kentucky Attorney General and candidate for U.S. Senate Jack Conway (D), "Heroes"

Progressives split over Jack Conway's Aqua Buddha campaign tactics may unite over the Democratic Senate nominee's other ad running in Kentucky this week. While Conway's attack on Republican nominee Rand Paul's college career fills the airwaves, voters in the Bluegrass State are also being subject to Conway's criticisms of what his ad calls "Obama's EPA."

At issue is Kentucky's coal industry, central to the state's economy and long a part of Conway's campaign rhetoric. The Democrat has said he's against cap-and-trade for a while now and told me in an interview back in August that his "number one" criteria when considering energy policy is "does it do the right thing by Kentucky coal?"

The new ad seeks to illustrate that message.

"Jack Conway will always stand up for miners," the ad's narrator says. "Conway opposes cap-and-trade and even sued Obama's EPA to protect Kentucky coal."

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Claire McCaskill

Claire McCaskill Says Conway's Tactics 'Close To The Line' (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 18, 2010, 1:40PM

Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO)

Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) says she's worried about Kentucky Democratic Senate nominee Jack Conway's decision to make his opponent's 30-year-old college stories a campaign issue.

"This ad is a very dangerous ad because it reaches back to college," McCaskill said, referring to Conway's latest spot attacking Rand Paul over his years as an undergrad at Baylor University. "I think the ad came close to the line, but what is interesting about this ad is how Rand Paul handled it. I think it shows how thin-skinned and how unready he is for the kind of give-and-take that you've got to be willing to endure if you're going to be at the top levels of discourse in politics."

McCaskill criticized Paul, the Republican nominee, for walking off the stage at a debate last night without shaking hands with Conway.

"The idea that [Paul] wouldn't shake his opponent's hand, I think, is wrong under any circumstances," she said.

Conway has been ripping Republican Rand Paul over allegations that he blindfolded a woman and asked her to "worship Aqua Buddha" while member of a club at Baylor University that Conway says "mocked Christianity." After a hard-hitting debate centered mostly on Paul's college career, Paul called Conway "an embarrassment to this race" and refused to meet Conway when the forum was over.

[TPM SLIDESHOW - TPM's Day At 'Fancy Farm': Kentucky Pols Spar At Annual Political Kickoff Picnic]

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KY-SEN

Rand Paul Strikes Back: Conway Ad Is 'Shameless, Disgraceful Gutter Politics' (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 18, 2010, 12:44PM

KY-SEN candidate Rand Paul (R)

In a new ad, Rand Paul is lashing out at Jack Conway for bringing up questions about Paul's alleged days as a prankster while a student at Baylor University.

"What kind of shameful politician would sink this low to bear false witness against another man, just to win an election?" the ad's narrator says. "This one would: Jack Conway."

[TPM SLIDESHOW - TPM's Day At 'Fancy Farm': Kentucky Pols Spar At Annual Political Kickoff Picnic]

At last night's barn-burner Kentucky Senate debate, Paul, the Republican nominee, said Conway was questioning his Christian faith. Conway says Paul's alleged history of "mocking Christianity" and asking a woman "to kneel before a false idol called Aqua Buddha" while a student at Baylor "raises questions."

In the new spot, Paul answers neither charge, but makes no bones about his own spiritual allegiances.

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KY-SEN

Rand Paul Considering Skipping Final KY-SEN Debate

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 18, 2010, 11:46AM

KY-SEN candidate Rand Paul (R)

If you can't stand the heat -- or, in this case, the questions about your college shenanigans involving 'Aqua Buddha' -- get of of the kitchen. (Or, in this case, the previously-scheduled televised Senate debate.)

Rand Paul is considering skipping the final debate of the Kentucky Senate race, one day after a Louisville debate with Democratic nominee Jack Conway that was among the cycle's nastiest.

Paul told reporters this morning that he "will make a final decision soon on whether to appear with Conway on Kentucky Educational Television on Oct. 25," the AP reports.

[TPM SLIDESHOW - TPM's Day At 'Fancy Farm': Kentucky Pols Spar At Annual Political Kickoff Picnic]

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KY-SEN

The Nastiest Debate Of 2010 In 2:44 (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro and Clayton Ashley | October 18, 2010, 11:14AM

KY Senate candidates Rand Paul (R) and Jack Conway (D)

Last night's Kentucky Senate debate was one of the most brutal of the year, hands down. Though the forum included talk of the health care bill, illegal immigration, the economy and energy legislation, most of the talk was about Republican nominee Rand Paul's days in college. Democratic nominee Jack Conway asked Paul to explain why he allegedly tied a woman up and asked her to "worship Aqua Buddha" while a student at Baylor. Paul responded by telling Conway, "you demean Kentucky."

It was all downhill from there. Here, in 2 minutes and 44 seconds, is what last night's bruiser of a debate in Kentucky sounded like.

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KY-SEN

Rand Paul To Jack Conway: 'You Demean Kentucky'

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 17, 2010, 8:32PM

Kentucky Senate candidates Jack Conway (D) and Rand Paul (R)

Whatever was left of the gloves in the heated Kentucky Senate race came off tonight. In a televised debate from the University of Louisville, Republican nominee Rand Paul lashed out at his Democratic opponent, Jack Conway -- even refusing to shake his hand at the end of the debate -- saying to Conway at one point "you demean the state of Kentucky."

For his part, Conway was not afraid to climb down into the muck and take Paul on. He accused Paul of "joining a group known for mocking Christianity" while the Republican was a student at Baylor University and called on Paul to explain why he once "tied a woman up and asked her to worship a false idol."

The central issue fueling the vitriol between Paul and Conway was the Democrat's tough new ad focusing on tales of Paul's days at Baylor, which he attended for three years before leaving for medical school at Duke University. Paul claimed the ad questioned his Christian faith, which he said deeply offended him.

"He's descended into the gutter," Paul, who referred to himself as a "pro-life Christian" said. "Jack, you should be ashamed of yourself. Have you no decency? Have you no shame?"

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KY-SEN

Strange Narrative Reversal On Senate Leadership In Latest KY-SEN Debate

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 14, 2010, 12:25PM

Kentucky Democratic Senate nominee Jack Conway

We used to wonder who Rand Paul would support for caucus leader if he made it to the Senate. Now it may be time to start wondering who Jack Conway would support.

For months, one of the central storylines in the Kentucky Senate race has been the dynamic between Paul, the Republican nominee, and Mitch McConnell, the state's senior senator and leader of the Senate GOP caucus. Paul ran against McConnell's chosen nominee in the Republican primary -- and he won in part by aiming his rhetoric directly at McConnell, calling him a symbol of the failed Republican establishment. Since Paul handily won the nomination, the relationship between the two Republicans has been one of the year's political soap operas. It would, of course, be quite an embarrassment for McConnell if the Republican Senator from his own state declined to vote for him to remain caucus leader, as Paul warned he might during the primary. After several public statements of support from Paul, however -- the latest of which came this morning -- it appears McConnell can put any fears to rest.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid may not be so lucky. Conway, the Democrat, won't say for sure if he'd vote for the current Democratic caucus leader if he makes it to Washington.

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KY-SEN

Rand Paul Backtracks On National Sales Tax Plan

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 14, 2010, 10:46AM

KY-SEN candidate Rand Paul (R)

Kentucky's Republican nominee for Senate, Rand Paul, is running away from his past support for abolishing the federal income tax in favor of a national sales tax, according to reports on the ground in the Bluegrass State.

The move is the latest walkback from the past for Paul, who started out the campaign as some kind of libertarian-tea party hybrid, unafraid to talk on national television about things like the problems he saw in the 1964 Civil Rights Act. Since winning the nomination, however, Paul has headed in pretty much a straight line toward establishment Republican policies when it comes to his campaign rhetoric. The national sales tax shift appears to be part of that trend.

Some conservatives have long called for the abolition of the 16th Amendment -- which created the income tax -- and the creation of a national sales tax as high as 25 cents on the dollar in its place. They argue the sales tax would be more fair. Detractors say it would hit low-income taxpayers the hardest, pretty much undoing exactly what the progressive income tax structure was supposed to do in the first place. Paul used to be one of those who called for a national sales tax, according to reports, though now he claims he never was.

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KY-SEN

Rand Paul Goes There: Lewinsky Jokes Abound As Clinton Stumps For Dem In KY-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 12, 2010, 1:05PM

Rand Paul (R)

When President Bill Clinton stumped for Kentucky's Democratic nominee for Senate, Jack Conway, he was met with a barrage of jokes about his past from Conway's Republican opponent, Rand Paul. Clinton tried to raise fears about foreign donor money with the voters he spoke to in Kentucky; Paul responded by reminding everyone that Clinton once had oral sex performed on him in the Oval Office.

It was not rhetoric in the style of the Lincoln-Douglass debates. But it was fairly entertaining.

"I'm not sure I would trust a guy who had had sexual relations with an intern. I mean, do you think he's an honorable person?" Paul told supporters at a campaign stop on Monday, according to the Lexington Herald-Leader.

"I think that's disgusting," Paul added. "It gets to the point where we discount what he says."

There was more, as PoliticsDaily reports. "They complain they want all these workplace rules," Paul told the audience in Shelbyville, KY. "Do you think there ought to be a law against having, using the prerogatives of your position and your power of your job, to have relations with an intern? I think that's disgusting. It gets to the point where we discount what he says. He showed himself less than honorable in office."

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KY-SEN

Medicare Fight Takes Center Stage At KY-SEN Debate (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 12, 2010, 10:11AM

Kentucky Senate candidates Jack Conway (D) and Rand Paul (R)

The debate over what to do with Medicare -- which has become a centerpiece of the Kentucky Senate race of late -- took a prominent role in a televised debate between Republican nominee Rand Paul and Democratic nominee Jack Conway last night. As he has for weeks now, Conway hammered Paul for his past statement supporting a massive increase in the Medicare deductible to help, Paul has said, move the system to a "market-based approach." Paul accused Conway of twisting his words on the issue.

The fight has come to define the Senate race, and served to put a new spring in Democratic steps after a summer campaign that was all about Paul's momentum. Now the fight over Medicare (as well as another battle over drug enforcement) has put Paul on the run, with some polls showing Conway gaining steam in the final weeks of the election.

At the debate last night, Conway tried to capitalize on that momentum, jabbing Paul over Medicare at every possible moment.

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KY-SEN

Jack Conway Calls Out Rand Paul's Fancy Medicare Footwork (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 8, 2010, 8:55AM

In a brutal new Jack Conway TV spot set to air in Kentucky soon, Rand Paul is being forced to confront the series of missteps on a Medicare deductible that Democrats say is threatening Republican efforts to win the all-important senior citizen vote.

The new spot, obtained exclusively by TPM, is the latest salvo in a week-long war over Paul's public advocacy for raising the Medicare deductible to $2,000. Back in 2009, Paul was caught on tape suggesting the move as part of a "market-based" transition for the government program, a move he admitted at the time was at best a tough sell to the electorate.

Since then, Paul has attempted to walk back the stance -- first airing a commercial saying he never said it (he later edited that spot to say, basically, that he never meant it) and then explaining he only supported raising the deductible for future Medicare recipients 55 years of age or younger. The overall result of the Paul spin? A frontrunner who sounds like he's on the defensive when it comes to an issue that strikes a core demographic right where their votes come from: their wallets.

Conway seems content to twist the knife. The new ad puts Paul's walkbacks up against footage of the Republican advocating the deductible -- footage captured by the Democrat Conway's tracker.

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KY-SEN

Rand Paul Runs From His Own Medicare Record With TV Ad Edits (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 7, 2010, 4:14PM

Rand Paul is having a hard time escaping his plan to add a $2,000 deductible to Medicare, despite a pricey ad campaign that appears to be aimed at just that. In a rather blatant edit to one of his TV ads, Paul's campaign changed language saying he "never" supported a deductible to words and narration saying he "doesn't" support such a plan.

It's a fairly dramatic public walkback that suggests Paul is concerned about how the deductible talk could affect his performance on Election Day. Democrats in Kentucky say the fact that Paul changed the ad means their opposition research operations are bearing fruit and making victory for their nominee, Jack Conway, more likely.

The back story: Back in 2009, Paul told a group that a $2,000 deductible for Medicare was necessary to help get the program "to more of a market-based system." Paul admitted the plan would be a tough sell to voters, snarking "but try selling that one in an election year." That remark was captured on video of the speech taken by Democrats. Conway went up with an ad calling out the deductible plan a couple weeks ago, and has made great use of the what the campaign says is the unpopularity of increasing the costs of Medicare among those who receive it (read: senior citizens, the demographic absolutely no one wants to get on the wrong side of in an election year).

Paul is clearly worried about the ads, as he is now running his own spots calling Conway out for ever saying that he supported a deductible for Medicare (fact check: Paul does in fact support increasing the deductible costs for Medicare, but only for people 55 and younger).

Paul's attempts to rebut the Conway ads were stymied somewhat by his own past statements however.

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KY-SEN

Rand Paul: I Really Meant It When I Said Let's Have A $2,000 Medicare Deductible (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 6, 2010, 6:04PM

For the past few days, the Kentucky Senate race has been about Medicare. More to the point, it's been about a grainy video of Republican nominee Rand Paul taken in June 2009 showing Paul calling for a $2,000 deductible on Medicare payments to save the government-run health care program for the elderly.

Democratic nominee Jack Conway has been having a field day with the video, which he turned into a TV commercial that captures the probable level of popularity the idea has among seniors in Kentucky.

"That's crazy," one elderly lady says in the ad. "I can't afford that."

Obfuscation being the nature of things in political ads, you might expect that when given a chance to talk about the $2,000 deductible scheme, Paul would rattle off the ways Conway took his words out of context or practiced 'gotcha' selective editing in the clip.

You'd be wrong.

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KY-SEN

Rand Paul Ad Stars Obama Impersonator (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 5, 2010, 1:35PM

Ad from candidate for U.S. Senate Rand Paul (R-KY), "Jack Conway's Stamp of Approval of Obama"

Rand Paul has a really funny new ad in the Kentucky Senate race, using a creative means of tying Democratic nominee Jack Conway to President Obama -- with the voice of an Obama impersonator talking about how great Conway is for him.

"Jack Conway, uh, has given me a stamp of approval," the impersonator says, as the music for "The Battle Hymn Of The Republic" plays in the background. "Conway supported me for president, helped bankroll my campaign, and even fought to pass my health care plan. Now, I need Conway in Washington, because I know I can count on Conway to vote for more spending and debt, bigger government, and higher taxes."

The monologue is then interrupted by an incoming phone call on Obama's trusty BlackBerry -- identified by the caller-I.D. as none other than Jack Conway himself. "There he is now! Mr. Jack Conway. Now there's a guy I can work with in Washington."

All things considered, it's actually a pretty solid impersonation on the part of that voice actor.

The TPM Poll Average gives Paul a lead of 47.4%-41.9%.

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KY-SEN

Conway, Paul Find Common Ground On Extending Bush Tax Cuts In Debate

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 3, 2010, 10:50AM

Kentucky Senate candidates Jack Conway and Rand Paul talk with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

No matter who Kentuckians elect to the Senate this fall, they're going to get an advocate for extending all the Bush tax cuts -- and not just those for the middle class. In their first (and likely only) nationally-televised debate of the race, Republican nominee Rand Paul and Democratic nominee Jack Conway disagreed on just about everything -- except for extending billions of dollars in tax cuts to the wealthiest Americans at a time when government is struggling to shrink the deficit.

"I think that raising taxes -- we shouldn't be doing it in a time of recession," Conway said. "Listen, in 2002, when I was running for the United States Congress, I was for the Bush tax cuts then. I was one of the few Democrats that was for them and I think now we just ought to extend them."

Paul called Conway's position a flip-flop, but agreed that extending all the cuts was the right thing to do, and promised to offset the additional deficit numbers the tax cuts will create.

"I will immediately introduce bills to reduce spending," Paul said. "I will introduce legislation that will balance the budget."

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Sunday Shows

The Sunday Show Line-Ups

Eric Kleefeld | October 1, 2010, 5:37PM

KY Sen. candidates Rand Paul (R) and Jack Conway (D)

Here are the line-ups for the Sunday talk shows this weekend:

• ABC, This Week: A town hall on Islam in America, featuring Franklin Graham, Daisy Khan, and others.

• CBS, Face The Nation: Gov. Ed Rendell (D-PA), Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM), Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT).

• CNN, State Of The Union: Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ), former Gore presidential campaign manager Donna Brazile, former George W. Bush aide Ed Gillespie, Pakistan ambassador to the United States Husain Haqqani.

• Fox News Sunday: Kentucky Senate candidates Rand Paul (R) and Jack Conway (D).

• NBC, Meet The Press: Will not air, due to NBC's coverage of the Ryder Cup.