
At a public event in Albany, N.Y., Tuesday, President Obama went counterintuitive. Bloated government is a phenomenon of Republican leadership, he noted, and it's helped them weather economic downturns in a way he hasn't been able to.
"[A]fter there was a recession under Ronald Reagan, government employment went way up. It went up after the recessions under the first George Bush and the second George Bush," he said. "So each time there was a recession with a Republican president, compensated -- we compensated by making sure that government didn't see a drastic reduction in employment. The only time government employment has gone down during a recession has been under me. So I make that point just so you don't buy into this whole bloated government argument that you hear. And frankly, if Congress had said yes to helping states put teachers back to work and put the economy before our politics, then tens of thousands more teachers in New York would have a job right now. That is a fact. And that would mean not only a lower unemployment rate, but also more customers for business."
As we've noted before, the numbers back this up completely.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The final months of 2011 and the first months of 2012 were marked by such positive economic news that economists, browbeaten by past false starts, started growing optimistic that a self-sustaining recovery was finally upon us. Then in recent weeks, the indicators went wobbly again, and optimism has given way to a renewed sense of dread that the earlier bursts of growth were misleading outliers.
Whatever's really going on in the actual labor market, the implications couldn't be more significant -- both for millions of unemployed Americans, and for all that's staked on the outcome of the 2012 election.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Mitt Romney's having a terrible time turning the tables on Democrats. But his camp's claim that President Obama is the one waging the "real war on women" is best debunked visually.
With thanks to economist Justin Wolfers for the idea, the below graphs compare male and female employment metrics. The former, charting percent change in total monthly payrolls, shows what economists have known for quite some time. Male-dominated industries took a hard, early hit during the recession. As those industries rebound, more jobs are going to men than to women. Conversely, women lost a huge number of jobs in states and municipalities as a result of teacher layoffs -- a hemorrhaging that could have been stanched by Obama-proposed legislation to spur teacher hiring, which the GOP blocked.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)An enduring impediment to President Obama's economic recovery has been the erosion of public-sector employment, driven largely by layoffs at the state and local levels. As we've noted before, this wasn't a problem recent Republican presidents faced. Total government expenditures (federal, state and local) grew under Reagan and the two Bush presidents much more than it has under President Obama.
But how is that reflected in Obama's economic record? The economics blog Calculated Risk points us toward private- and public-sector payrolls under both Presidents George W. Bush and Obama, both of whom faced tough economies early in their first terms (though of wildly varied levels of severity).
We've adjusted these to reflect percent change, to account for population growth. The basic story is that Obama's private-sector recovery has outpaced Bush's, but Obama's been hobbled by government cutbacks that Bush never faced. Quite the opposite, in fact.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has a message for the Republicans: Stand in the way of confirming over a dozen judicial nominees, as you've threatened to, and the country can watch for weeks as you hold up the bipartisan JOBS Act. I dare you.
Ever since President Obama used his recess appointment power to install the director of a powerful consumer protection agency, and members of the National Labor Relations Board, Senate Republicans have threatened to hold up all of his other pending nominees. Including judges.
Normally, there's little a majority leader can do to thwart a determined minority bent on grinding the Senate to a halt. But Reid believes he's found the leverage he needs.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Will recent months of economic good news, including today's Department of Labor unemployment report, redound to President Obama's political benefit in 2012?
If the GOP's messaging schizophrenia over the last several weeks is any indication, they seem to think it could. And there are real precedents for this effect. When President Reagan's economy bottomed out and began to improve, it did so early and quickly enough in his term that he pronounced it "morning in America" and won a landslide re-election.
Here's how President Obama's recovery looks by comparison.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)It's made headlines in the New York Times, received prominent coverage from the cable nets, and by and large been a messaging coup for House Republicans. The House of Representatives on Thursday overwhelmingly passed GOP-backed legislation called the JOBS [Jump Start Our Business Startups] Act. It's a modest bill, comprised of several measures that have already passed the House by wide margins, aimed at promoting capital formation.
But Democrats aren't celebrating. They think the bill is perfectly fine, but more of a public relations stunt than a real prescription for economic growth. And on Capitol Hill, Dem leaders are quick to remind reporters that just because it's called JOBS, doesn't make it's a tremendous legislative achievement.
It's not unusual for Barney Frank to take Republicans to the mattresses on the House floor. But he usually doesn't get benched for doing so.
The back story's pretty straightforward.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)If Republicans seem spooked to you these days, here's why.
President Obama's political comeback over the past several months aligns neatly with when he began more aggressively attacking the GOP and politicking for economic growth and equality back in September.
But over that same stretch, the economy began moving in the right direction. Indicators of economic growth started moving upward, and the eye-popping indications of economic weakness started moving downward. That's surely had an effect. And if the trends continue, it augurs very well for Obama in the general election.
At the peak of December's payroll tax cut showdown on Capitol Hill, two top Republican aides discussed with me the pros and cons of making the Keystone XL pipeline a centerpiece of the debate.
They relished the idea of forcing President Obama to take a public stand on the pipeline early in an election year, instead of after the election as he had wanted. And they were eager to force him to choose between supporters in the labor movement, some of whom are pushing for the pipeline, and others in the environmental movement who vehemently oppose it. So they decided to go for it.
At the same time they knew he'd likely have to reject the project, and for them that created a dilemma.
"It's a question of whether we'd rather have the pipeline or the issue," said one of the GOP aides. Black or white.
In the end they chose the issue.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Last week's surprisingly positive jobs report overshadowed another bit of good news for the economy: last November showed the biggest growth in consumer credit in 10 years. Typically that's a sign that consumer confidence is up, banks are willing to lend, and demand is on the rise.
If you look back at recent monthly data, though, you'll see that this particular green shoot should have poked through the ground months ago, but was stymied by the GOP's debt ceiling hostage drama.
Take a look at the evidence:
Everything that's supposed to happen in politics this year, and everything that has happened for the last several months, has been premised on the tacit, but seemingly safe assumption: The economy will remain weak for years.
This has underlined Congressional jobs bill theatrics, campaign rhetoric about Obama's record, debates about who's to blame for high unemployment, and which party best represents the interests of the middle class.
But what if that assumption is wrong?
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Mitt Romney's effort to disguise one of his biggest political liabilities has hit a major snag -- one that may force him to abandon his most effective but misleading talking points about his work in the private sector..
Romney makes two different, but implicitly entwined claims: That while working in corporate management he created over 100,000 jobs and that -- by comparison -- Obama his presided over millions of job losses.
This is a false juxtaposition, based on two false claims. And so far, precious few reporters have pressed Romney or his campaign about it. But in the past several days, the veneer of plausibility has begun to peel leaving the candidate highly exposed to backlash from the press.
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Awkward!
Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell brought a bunch of rank and file members to the microphones with him after a conference lunch Tuesday to discuss consumer finance regulation. But one of those Republicans -- Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) -- is introducing legislation to fund economic growth measures with higher taxes on millionaires and oil companies. And reporters took the opportunity to ask McConnell to address her plan publicly, in her presence.
After trying futilely to pass the mic to Collins, McConnell said pretty unequivocally that his caucus will overwhelmingly reject her plan.
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As reported earlier, Sens. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) and Susan Collins (R-ME) just dropped the details of their plan to extend the payroll tax cut, which includes other economic growth proposals. And both sponsors were explicit about the fact that their goal is to entice GOP senators to break their anti-tax streaks.
First the details on the legislation.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)CBO Director Doug Elmendorf's testimony before the Senate Budget Committee Tuesday was full of bad news for the unemployed, and thus for President Obama. This is the stuff Republicans blasted out to reporters: Unemployment will likely be sky high through next year, GDP growth has been and will continue to be anemic.
But his prepared remarks confirm this is in part a product of the GOP's unwillingness to pass the big-ticket items in Obama's jobs bill. And they also imply that the GOP's economic counter-proposals would do almost nothing to actually improve things.
Here's a chart that lays out pretty clearly:
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The Senate voted overwhelmingly Thursday to pass two modest pieces of President Obama's jobs bill.
The final vote was 95-0 with one senator voting "present." The legislation, which is expected to pass in the House, will provide tax credits to businesses who hire unemployed veterans, and, separately, will eliminate a requirement that the IRS withhold three percent of government contracts, to assure compliance with the tax code. That requirement isn't currently in effect, but is scheduled to be implemented January 1, 2012.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Here in the United States, Republican lawmakers are busy blocking plans to spend money on jobs and infrastructure improvement, while both parties work in earnest to find ways of cutting $1.2 trillion or more from the budget over the next 10 years.
They're doing this at a time when demand for America's debt is so high that investors will essentially pay the U.S. to borrow.
You read that right. Here are the numbers. They may appear hard to parse, but it's pretty straightforward: when you adjust for inflation, the interest creditors get for parking their money here is negative. That's not a deal you'd accept from your bank, but it's the deal we're getting now.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Congressional Democrats weren't surprised Tuesday to learn, in a story first reported by the Wall Street Journal, that White House Chief of Staff Bill Daley had handed a big chunk of his portfolio over to senior adviser -- and former acting Chief of Staff -- Pete Rouse. Indeed, they've been living under the new regime for several weeks, and according to one highly placed Senate Democratic aide the improvement has been self evident.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)As of Tuesday morning, betting on the Super Committee to succeed would be playing the odds.
A key member of the Senate Democratic leadership team has openly predicted the panel will gridlock and fail, and placed the blame squarely on Republicans.
As GOP committee members met privately, Maryland Rep. Chris Van Hollen -- a Democrat on the panel -- told Bloomberg, "You need to close some of these tax loopholes and you need to generate additional revenue. And so that balance is going to be important. We saw the dueling letters just last week. We had a bipartisan group in the House that said, 'Look, everything is on the table including revenues - tax revenues.' And within 24 hours you had 33 [Republican] Senators say, 'no new net tax revenues.'"
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Senate Democrats are teeing up yet another vote next week on a provision of President Obama's jobs bill. This time with a twist -- they're not going to ask that it be paid for with a surtax on millionaires.
They're calling this one the "Vow to Hire Heroes Act of 2011." A version of it passed the House on an overwhelmingly bipartisan basis last month. It would offer a tax credit to companies that hire out of work veterans and increase an existing credit that already goes to companies that hire veterans with service-related disabilities. Dems propose to cover the $1.6 billion cost of the bill by delaying fee reductions that are scheduled to apply to mortgage loans guaranteed by the Department of Veterans Affairs.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)As noted previously, the deficit Super Committee is gridlocked largely because the GOP is unwilling to accept higher taxes on wealthy people as part of a compromise with Democrats that also cuts Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. But the parties also differ on the question of whether their recommendations should include any near term spending and/or tax cuts to give the weak economy a much-needed boost.
Recently committee Republicans and Democrats presented each other with competing plans -- some details of which were leaked to the press. Aides note that the Dem plan contained about $300 billion in expansionary measures, while the GOP plan contained... well, see for yourself.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Senate Republicans Thursday blocked debate on yet another portion of President Obama's jobs bill -- one that would have provided $60 billion for funding transportation projects, and seeded a new infrastructure bank.
The vote was 51 - 49 with only 2 members of the Dem caucus -- Sens. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) and Ben Nelson (D-NE) -- joining the GOP.
It was the third test vote on jobs measures Republicans have stymied. In recent weeks they filibustered debate on the whole American Jobs Act, and on legislation that would have provided states $35 billion to hire and retain teachers and emergency responders. All the bills are paid for with tiny surtaxes on income over $1 million.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The economy is showing modest signs of improvement, but probably not enough to help the people who've taken the biggest hit: the long-term unemployed.
The number of people who've been out of work for over a year has skyrocketed since the financial crisis and ensuing recession to the point where Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has called it a "national crisis" -- employers are reluctant to hire people who haven't been on the job in months, and after such long stretches peoples' skills deteriorate and they become genuinely less marketable.
How bad is it? Extremely bad -- and even worse if you're old.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Senate Democrats will continue to force Republicans to filibuster popular pieces of President Obama's jobs bill in the days weeks ahead -- to bolster their narrative that Republicans would rather see the economy fail than help Obama, or raise taxes by even a fraction of a percent on millionaires and billionaires.
But sometime between now and the end of the year, Dems will either have to interrupt their strategy or risk watching as two key provisions that helped bolster the economy this year lapse, and threaten what's already expected to be modest economic growth in 2012.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The White House is pushing ahead with its strategy of taking executive action to circumvent Congressional GOP opposition on job creation, on Friday unveiling a new presidential memorandum aimed at helping private businesses in hard economic times.
As President Obama struggles to build support for many components of his jobs bill in Congress, he continued to roll-out unilateral steps as part of his new "We Can't Wait" theme. Obama on Friday signed two business-friendly memorandums: one that would shorten the time it takes for federal research to translate into commercial products in the marketplace, and another creating a website, known as BusinessUSA, to make it easier for companies to learn about federal export opportunities and other government services.
"Today, I am directing my administration to take two important steps to help American businesses create new products, compete in a global economy, and create jobs here at home," Obama said in statement.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)It took months of fighting -- the threat of a government shutdown, the graver threat of a default on the national debt, and now a new threat of major, automatic cuts to Medicare and defense programs -- but Congress' deficit obsession has finally exposed the rarest of all species: Republican Keynesians.
With just a under a month until the deficit Super Committee must recommend policies that cut the 10 year deficit by $1.2 trillion, members of the Republican party -- the same party that's been on the war path for deep spending cuts, and that decries President Obama's "failed stimulus" -- are making uncharacteristic arguments against slashing spending. Trim too much, too quickly, they warn, and people will lose their jobs!
Call them Defense Keynesians -- GOP members who represent defense interests, veterans, service members, contractors, and others whose livelihoods would be impacted by deep cuts to defense spending. They don't want the Super Committee to cut much more, if any, from defense, and they certainly don't want to pull the so-called "trigger" which would cut defense across the board by about $600 billion starting in 2013, if the panel gridlocks.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)House Republicans are crowing about leading efforts to repeal an impending 3 percent withholding tax on government contractors as yet another way they're rolling back the regulatory burden on businesses to help spur economic growth and job creation.
Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) on Tuesday touted the withholding repeal, which the House plans to take up Thursday, and pressed President Obama to jump on the bandwagon.
"We're bringing up 3% withholding bill to help gov'ts & their contractors at all levels work in a more efficient way so prices don't go up," Cantor tweeted. "Hope the President will join us in supporting this because this is a provision in his bill & we have used a pay-for that he's embraced."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Republicans just won a round of jousting over President Obama's jobs bill.
President Obama supports passage of House GOP legislation that would eliminate a tax compliance rule affecting big government contractors and pay for it by limiting Medicaid eligibility, the White House announced Tuesday.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)As part of its new "We Can't Wait" for Congress theme, the White House has announced an initiative to help veterans of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars get back to work.
The latest effort, part of a comprehensive plan to transition veterans from the battlefield to the workplace, challenges community health centers around the country to hire 8,000 veterans over the next three years.
Vice President Joe Biden's office is none too pleased with a tricky reporter ambush of him that got ugly and went viral last week.
Biden, never one to shy away from reporters even after a career of headline-making gaffes and wisecracks, is drawing the line. Biden's office has complained to the Senate press gallery about a confrontation he had with a conservative reporter, The Hill reports.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The House GOP has hit upon a way to undercut President Obama's attacks on them and advance conservative policy goals all at once. This week, they'll pass legislation that includes perhaps the least stimulative measure in President Obama's jobs bill and pay for it with perhaps the most regressive measure in a recent package of deficit reducing proposals he submitted to the joint deficit super committee.
It's a case study in the perils of offering concessions to your opponents before negotiations have begun. And it will force Democrats in both chambers, but particularly in the Senate, to decide whether to pass a proposal comprised of measures Obama's backed in the past, even though they've been cherry picked to essentially constitute a Republican piece of legislation. If Senate Dems block the measure, Republicans will accuse them of wanting to pick political fights instead of passing Obama jobs legislation. If Dems pass the measure, and Obama signs it, the GOP can cite it as evidence that they're not simply standing in the way of action on the economy.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Staff for Rep. Reid Ribble (WI) -- the freshman Republican last seen on the pages of TPM explaining how he can be a "distraction" to employers trying to connect with the unemployed -- are pushing back hard on the notion that their boss cares more about the optics of a jobs fair than actually helping people find jobs.
Ribble held a jobs fair on Saturday, double-booking it with a $1000/host fundraiser 45 minutes away. But his staff say the fact that he left early doesn't mean Ribble cares more about raising bucks for his own campaign than helping his down-on-their luck constituents, as Democrats suggest.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)"We Can't Wait" is the White House's new economic rallying cry. With Senate Republicans committed to filibustering President Obama's jobs bills, and House Republicans refusing to hold votes on them, the administration is taking some steps that don't require Congress to act.
The most significant of these, announced Monday, will allow people with underwater mortgages to refinance at favorable rates if their mortgages are backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. It will expand the existing Home Affordable Refinancing Program to all underwater homeowners, leaving people with more money in their accounts every month, and thus, as David Dayen has pointed out, functioning as a de facto stimulus.
Will it move the needle on unemployment though? It depends on whom you ask, but the broad view seems to be it won't on its own fix the ailing economy. But it is expected to jack up the number of mortgage refinancings.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)President Obama is heading straight into the heart of the housing crisis -- Nevada -- to unveil a series of executive branch steps to give the economy a shot in the arm, beginning with new rules making it easier for underwater homeowners to refinance their mortgages.
The White House is calling the new roll-out the "We-Can't-Wait" program, a not-so-subtle jab at Republicans in Congress, who have spent the last two weeks blocking Obama's job bill. Las Vegas' economy was one of the hardest hit by the housing crisis.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The leader of the House Republican Job Creators Caucus, Rep. Reid Ribble (R-WI), told reporters over the weekend that the best place for him to help with job creation is at a $1,000/host skeet-shooting fundraiser 45 minutes away from his own jobs fair.
Ribble said his attendance at the jobs fair his office set up and advertised was "a bit of a distraction" to people trying to find work.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Republicans don't have the White House's megaphone, but give them credit for creativity.
They've co-opted President Obama's new jobs mantra, "We Can't Wait," and turned it around on Democrats. On Twitter.
For the most part, Republicans are using the hashtag, #WeCantWait, to pressure Senate Democrats to pass House-passed anti-regulation legislation. They claim those bills will grow the economy, quickly, though most experts disagree.
Here's House Speaker John Boehner on jobs. And here's RNC Chairman Reince Priebus using Obama's slogan as a rallying cry for the future GOP presidential nominee.
Republicans did basically the same thing several weeks ago, when the White House asked voters to tweet Twitter Town Hall questions for Obama with the hashtag #AskObama. Let's see if Democrats get in on the game.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Speaking with Candy Crowley on CNN's "State of the Union," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-K.Y.) defended his opposition to President Obama's now dead jobs bill, saying that the federal government should instead focus on decreasing regulations.
Senate Republicans, joined by three conservative members of the Democratic caucus, defeated that $35 billion package last week, which aimed to hire or retain teachers and emergency responders. And Democrats will surely trumpet their recalcitrance as we head into 2012.
Yet McConnell spun the issue in a different light, telling Crowley that saving emergency responders from unemployment shouldn't be a federal responsibility because we can't afford "to be bailing out states."
"I certainly do approve of firefighters and police," said McConnell. "The question is whether the federal government ought to be raising taxes on 300,000 small businesses in order to send money down to bail out states for whom firefighters and police work. They are local and state employees."
But, as Crowley pointed out (and as did Harry Reid on the floor of the Senate last week) polls show that 75 percent of the public supports raising some form of tax on millionaires to pay for aid to teachers, police, and firefighters.
President Barack Obama not only feels your pain -- he just might cut you a check if you write him and tell him about it.
On some occasions, the President writes a personal check -- actual money from his own pocket -- to Americans who write him about personal hardships, according to a a report by Eli Saslow in the Washington Post last week that probably received far less attention than it deserved.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Senate Democrats will continue their push to pass pieces of President Obama's jobs bill by forcing another test vote, in just over a week, on legislation to fund key infrastructure projects, and to seed an infrastructure bank, Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) announced Friday.
The legislation would provide $50 billion worth of direct investment to transportation and other infrastructure projects, and create a federal infrastructure bank, with authority to loan money to states and private companies to build out public-use infrastructure.
The kicker is that it will be paid for with a 0.7 percent surtax on income over $1 million a year. That's a slight tick higher than the minuscule surtax Democrats proposed to pay for legislation to hire teachers and emergency first responders that Republicans filibustered late Thursday night.
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