Joe Manchin

Man On A Wire: Joe Manchin's Two-Step Alienates Dems And Fails To Convince Republicans

Brian Beutler | April 20, 2012, 12:52PM

Updated at 2:05 p.m.

Sen. Joe Manchin's may think running for re-election as a Democrat while remaining uncommitted to President Obama will buy him cover with ... somebody. But it's not with Republicans.

"What a difference one Democratic Senator's upcoming re-election and three years of failed economic policies by the Democrats makes," emails Brian Walsh, communications director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, in a statement. "But no amount of election-year rhetoric from Senator Manchin will cause voters in West Virginia to forget that three years ago he unabashedly supported President Obama, while predicting great things for West Virginia under his Administration. Instead of trying to put distance between he and the President, Senator Manchin should be more focused on a simple, three word message to his constituents - 'I am sorry.'"

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White House

Two Dems Vote With GOP To Kill Obama Jobs Package In Senate

Susan Crabtree | October 11, 2011, 7:50PM

Update: 8:56 p.m. Eastern -- At the last moment, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid switched his vote to "no" after Sen. Shaheen cast a yes vote. Reid altered his position in order to be able to bring the measure to a vote again. The final tally came to 50-49.

Senate Democrats lost a procedural hurdle on President Obama's jobs bill Thursday night, scuttling any progress on passage of the entire package.

As of early evening, Senate Democrats were still holding the vote open for Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), who had a scheduling conflict and was still in flight when the vote began. With Shaheen's yes vote, Senate Democrats could show a majority of support, 51 votes, for the President's $447m plan to spur economic growth.

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Jobs

Reid Casts Doubt On Unanimous Dem Support For Obama Jobs Bill

Brian Beutler | October 5, 2011, 1:27PM

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) and Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY)

At a Wednesday Capitol press conference, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) again couldn't confidently predict that President Obama's jobs bill has the support of the entire Democratic caucus -- even after leadership tweaked some of its controversial measures to broaden party support for the plan.

"I don't know what 'unanimity' means," Reid told reporters. "We'll get most all the Democrats."

Unanimity, of course, means all Democrats -- which will be important. If one or two Democrats defect from the bill, Republicans can (and will) say that the opposition to the plan is bipartisan.

There's a chance that he could unite the party, particularly after replacing Obama's proposed tax measures with a simpler five percent surtax on millionaires to pay for the jobs programs.

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Government Shutdown

Members Of Congress Still Slated To Be Paid During Shutdown (VIDEO)

Brian Beutler | April 7, 2011, 9:35AM

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH), House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) joined the vast majority of members of Congress Wednesday night, saying elected federal officials should not be paid in the event of a government shutdown.

But with less than 48 hours to go until the government does shut down, all members -- and the President -- are still slated to receive their checks. The optics of this are so bad that members are figuring out ways to avoid political stigma for swimming in dough while their constituents suffer.

"If the government shuts down, I will take this pledge, and I urge you all - from the President and Vice President to all Members of Congress - to take it with me: I will forego my federal salary until we reach an agreement," writes Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) in a letter to colleagues. "I will donate my salary to charity or return it to the Treasury until the government works again."

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Budget

Senior Democratic Senators To Obama: Please Engage On Budget Talks

Susan Crabtree | March 9, 2011, 8:18AM

Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) and Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA)

Senior Democratic senators are practically begging and pleading for President Obama to roll up his sleeves and engage with Republicans on budget negotiations.

Distracted by world events and crisscrossing the country talking about job creation, President Obama these Democrats say is shrinking from the heavy lifting required to leverage the full weight of the White House to sell smaller spending cuts to the American people and gain an edge in the negotiations with Republicans in Congress.

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2012 elections

Poll: Manchin In Good Shape For 2012 Reelection

Jon Terbush | January 25, 2011, 3:46PM

Joe Manchin (D)

It looks like Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) is carrying over the momentum from his double-digit win in November's special election, as a PPP poll out today shows him leading three potential Republican challengers for reelection in 2012.

Manchin's only reasonably close contest in the poll came against Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R), whom he led 50% to 41%. Against Rep. David McKinkley--who was just elected to his first term last year--Manchin posts a huge 29-point lead, 57% to 28%. John Raese, the Republican nominee who fell to Manchin in the midterms, also trailed by 29 points, 60% to 31%.

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Earl Ray Tomblin

West Virginia Supreme Court Orders Special Gov. Election

Eric Kleefeld | January 18, 2011, 3:42PM

Acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D-WV)

Another state is going to have a gubernatorial election in this off-year, with the West Virginia state Supreme Court ruling that the government will have to hold a special election.

The governorship became vacant this past November, when Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin won the special U.S. Senate election to replace the late Dem Sen. Robert Byrd. West Virginia does not have a lieutenant governor position, but instead Democratic state Senate President Earl Ray Tomblin (D) became Acting Governor.

This led to a dispute over when the next election for governor would have to be. Tomblin had argued that it was not legally required to occur until the November 2012 general election -- when the office will be up for its regular vote, anyway -- while critics said that a special election was required before then.

In the end, the state supreme Court has come down on the side of Tomblin's critics, which will set off a special election some time this year, before November 15 -- the date last year when Manchin resigned and Tomblin took over.

Lame duck sesion

Top 5 Lame Duck Losers For 2010

Brian Beutler | December 24, 2010, 8:27AM

Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ)

Until the next Congress starts, the media will have little to prattle on about besides the Democrats lame duck accomplishments. Already lost in the coverage are two key facts: 1.) The Dems' victories came at the expense of Republicans, many of whom really blew it these past few weeks; and 2.) The Democrats didn't win everything.

Here's our list of the lame duck's top five losers.

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Barack Obama

Top 5 Lame Duck Winners For 2010

Brian Beutler | December 24, 2010, 8:25AM

President Barack Obama

Republicans attacked it as a perversion of democracy, and used it as an excuse to continue to vote against Dem priorities. Democrats recognized it as their last chance to accomplish much of anything for the next two years. People in the media mistook it for a Barack Obama renaissance.

Certainly Democrats accomplished more than most people expected they would these last several weeks. But between the victories and the compromises and the defeats, it's hard to keep track of who came out on top.

Here's a list of the lame duck's big winners to help you sort it all out.

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Joe Manchin

Manchin Apologizes For Missing DADT Vote To Attend Family Christmas Party

Eric Kleefeld | December 21, 2010, 5:31PM

Joe Manchin

Freshman Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), who has been subjected to much public criticism after he was absent for this past weekend's votes on the DREAM Act and the successful repeal of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" in order to attend a family Christmas party -- which his office described as "a family obligation that he just could not break -- is now apologizing for the fumble.

West Virginia MetroNews Network reports:

"Let me apologize to anybody and everybody within our listening and reading areas. I'm very sorry for missing the two votes," Manchin said during a conference call with reporters Tuesday.

Manchin says his oldest daughter is divorced and has one child from that first marriage. She and her ex-husband take turns when it comes to custody on the Christmas holiday.

...

"Saturday was our Christmas and Saturday evening was our Christmas dinner. I got up Sunday and came back to Washington to make the votes I had to make," he said.

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Don't Ask, Don't Tell

Joe Manchin Skipped DREAM And DADT Votes For A Christmas Party

Jillian Rayfield | December 18, 2010, 5:42PM

Joe Manchin

After the Senate broke a GOP filibuster on Don't Ask, Don't Tell earlier today, Sen. Joe Manchin released a statement saying he had concerns about the "timing" and "implementation" of a repeal.

But it seems he took even more issue with the timing of the vote itself, seeing as he skipped the vote altogether to attend a Christmas party.

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Don't Ask, Don't Tell

Manchin Explains His No Vote On DADT

Evan McMorris-Santoro | December 9, 2010, 6:55PM

Joe Manchin

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), one of the Senate's freshest faces, broke with his party today and voted no on the cloture vote that would have likely moved Don't Ask, Don't Tell one step closer to an eventual repeal. After the vote, one Democratic aide said Manchin's vote was something of a stunt, coming as it did while cloture was sure to fail thanks to Republican opposition. The aide claimed that the former Governor of West Virginia wouldn't allow himself to be the vote that stops repeal from going forward.

In a statement to reporters tonight, Manchin suggested that as long as a vote on repealing DADT comes this year, he'll be more than willing to shut it down.

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Don't Ask, Don't Tell

Senate Aide: Manchin 'No' Vote On DADT Was A Stunt

Evan McMorris-Santoro | December 9, 2010, 5:40PM

Joe Manchin

For observers closely following the Don't Ask, Don't Tell proceedings in the Senate over the past several days, it's all been about Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME). Her demand to hold four days of debate and allow amendments on the Defense spending bill that included DADT repeal (and do all that after a vote on the tax cuts) essentially doomed the bill to failure, a senior Democratic aide said.

But in the end, when Majority Leader Harry Reid put the bill to a cloture vote this afternoon, Collins voted yes. Republican Sens. Scott Brown (MA) and Lisa Murkowski (AK) -- who also preferred Collins' timetable -- voted no.

So did Joe Manchin (D), the freshly sworn-in Senator from West Virginia, thus helping ensure that ending Don't Ask, Don't Tell in this Congress is extremely difficult, at best.

A senior Democratic aide was unaware if Reid knew Manchin would vote no, but said that the understanding is that Manchin's vote was something of a stunt.

"If he was somehow the 60th vote, I don't think he would have voted the way he did," the aide said.

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2012 elections

DeMint Targets Red-State Dem Senators In Fundraising Email

Eric Kleefeld | December 2, 2010, 9:42AM

Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC)

Sen. Jim DeMint is already hitting the virtual campaign trail for the 2012 Senate races, National Journal reports, with his Senate Conservatives Fund leadership PAC sending out a fundraising email targeting four red-state Democrats who voted against the earmark moratorium.

The targeted Senators are Jon Tester (D-MT), Ben Nelson (D-NE), Kent Conrad (D-ND) and the newly-elected Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), who just won a special election and is up for a vote again in 2012. All four of them hail from states that were carried by John McCain in 2008.

"These senators are nice folks but they have ignored the will of the American people and they must be replaced with principled conservatives in 2012," DeMint says in the email. "That's where the Senate Conservatives Fund comes in and it's where you can help."

DeMint then adds that his PAC will need "at least $4 million" for these four targeted races.

Democrats

What To Expect From The Lame Duck Senate This Week (Hint: Not Much)

Brian Beutler | November 15, 2010, 11:00AM

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) with Sens. Dick Durbin (D-IL) and Charles Schumer (D-NY)

Lame duck session begins today -- time for Democrats to squeeze through as much of their remaining agenda items as they can while they still enjoy large majorities, right?

Maybe eventually. The lame duck session could last until Christmas. But for now, Congress will only be in session for a few days before adjourning for a brief Thanksgiving recess. In that time the Senate plans to address -- or attempt to address -- three issues, leaving most of the big ticket items to be dealt with in December.

On Wednesday, the Senate will attempt to end filibusters on three pieces of legislation: one to promote natural gas and electric vehicles; one to close the pay gap between men and women; and food safety legislation third to enhance federal inspection and recall authority.

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WV-SEN

Country Roads Take Dems Home: Manchin Wins West Virginia Senate Seat (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | November 2, 2010, 8:41PM

Joe Manchin

We now have a result in a key red state -- where Democrats have been saved the loss of the seat that was previously held by the late Dem Senator Robert Byrd since 1958 -- as Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin has defeated Republican businessman John Raese.

With 12% of precincts reporting, Manchin leads by 54%-43%, and has been projected as the winner by NBC News and Fox News.

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2010 elections

Senate In The Balance: TPM's Look At The 9 Key Races Still Up For Grabs

Eric Kleefeld | November 1, 2010, 5:06PM

Clockwise from top left: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO), Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI), Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA)

As we head into Election Day, one thing is clear for Senate Democrats: It's going to be bad. Seriously. There's no going anywhere but down. But how far down?

It's unlikely that Democrats will manage to lose their majority outright, since they're starting at the high mark of 59 seats. But things sure look rough. Open seats in Indiana and North Dakota seem to be gone already, along with incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas. Republican seats that seemed like potential Dem pickups much earlier in the cycle -- North Carolina and open seats in Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Ohio -- are clearly out of reach.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Stranger Than Fiction? TPM Casts The 2010 Midterms Movie]

The few bright spots for Democrats are open seats in Connecticut and Delaware, where very weak Republican candidates Linda McMahon and Christine O'Donnell have spared the Dems from total humiliation. So with that in mind, let's take a look at some other key races to watch tomorrow.

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WV-SEN

Polls: Dem Manchin Ahead In WV-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | November 1, 2010, 9:27AM

Two new polls of the West Virginia Senate special election both give Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin a narrow lead against Republican businessman John Raese, in the race to succeed the late Dem Sen. Robert Byrd.

From Rasmussen: Manchin 50%, Raese 46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from last week, Manchin led by 49%-46%.

From Public Policy Polling (D): Manchin 51%, Raese 46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±2.4% margin of error. In PPP's numbers from last week, Manchin led by 50%-44%.

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WV-SEN

Manchin Web Ads: John Raese Is An Imperial Storm Trooper (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 28, 2010, 12:40PM

A new Web video from West Virginia Democratic Senate candidate Joe Manchin, "Lasers"

Democratic Senate candidate Joe Manchin has an amazing set of new Web videos in the West Virginia Senate race -- possibly the best Web-based campaign spots of the whole cycle. Remember that fun moment when Republican nominee John Raese said that the country needs "1,000 laser systems put in the sky, and we need it right now," and said it would only cost $20 billion? Well, now Manchin's campaign is connecting that to Raese's other positions -- and also to the Death Star and those white-armored storm troopers.

"We need 1,000 laser systems put int he sky, and we need it right now," Raese is shown saying in the video clip.

Then in comes that John Williams Darth Vader theme music, images of people in storm trooper costumes on parade, and laser beams from the sky wiping out a public school, clean drinking water and a Social Security card. The final image: John Raese's head on a storm trooper body, with laser beams raining down upon Earth in the background.

"John Raese's ideas aren't just crazy -- they're downright dangerous," the announcer says.

And there are more, too.

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WV-SEN

Manchin Ad: 'Both Democrats And Republicans Are Dead Wrong' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 27, 2010, 6:28PM

Joe Manchin campaign ad, "Fighting for West Virginia"

Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin has a new ad in the West Virginia Senate race, continuing his theme of distancing himself from national Democrats in this anti-Obama state. For this spot, Manchin attacks both the national Democrats and the Republicans, positioning himself against each of them.

"I'm as mad as you are with what's going on in Washington. Both Democrats and Republicans are dead wrong. They put their party first, their personal agenda second, and our country last. And they want you to believe I'm going to be a rubber stamp for that? Not a chance. That's not how we've made things better in West Virginia.

"Give me the chance to shake up Washington, just like I did here as governor. I'm Joe Manchin. I approve this message, because I've always put West Virginia first, and I always will."

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WV-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Dem Manchin Retakes Lead In WV-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 27, 2010, 1:03PM

Joe Manchin (D)

In a piece of rare good news for the Democrats, the new Rasmussen poll of the West Virginia Senate race has Gov. Joe Manchin, a relatively conservative Dem, retaking the lead over Republican businessman John Raese in the special election to succeed the late Dem Sen. Robert Byrd.

The numbers: Manchin 49%, Raese 46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous survey from last week, Raese enjoyed a healthy lead of 50%-43%. The last time Rasmussen had Manchin ahead was in September.

This race has pitted Manchin's widespread popularity as governor against President Obama's deep unpopularity in the state. Manchin has taken various steps to distance himself from the national Democrats -- most notably when he taped a commercial in which he took a rifle and shot a "cap and trade bill." He may have also gained some traction by casting Raese as a "crazy" right-wing extremist.

The TPM Poll Average gives Manchin a narrow lead of 47.3%-46.4%.

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WV-SEN

Fox News Poll: GOPer Raese Leads By Two Points In WV-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 26, 2010, 10:10AM

West Virginia Senate candidates John Raese (R) and Joe Manchin (D)

The new Fox News poll of the West Virginia Senate race has Republican businessman John Raese holding on to a narrow lead against Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin.

The numbers: Raese 48%, Manchin 46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error. In the previous Fox poll from last week, Raese led by a similar 48%-45%.

This race has been neck and neck, as two factors compete against each other: Manchin's profile as a relatively conservative Democrat and his very high approval rating as governor, at 69% in this particular poll, compared to President Obama's similarly high disapproval in this state, which is at 65% in this survey.

The TPM Poll Average currently gives Manchin an edge of just 46.7%-46.5%.

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2010 elections

Manchin Ad: 'John Raese's Ideas Are Crazy' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 25, 2010, 5:27PM

Ad from. Gov. Joe Manchin (D-WV), "Good Message"

Democrat Joe Manchin has a new ad in the West Virginia Senate race, attacking a variety of Republican John Raese's right-wing positions.

The ad cuts together different video clips of Raese speaking: "I've already been defeated three times. That's a pretty good message from West Virginia, I think. But I'm gonna tell you this...I don't agree with minimum wage...I'm in the business of not providing jobs. I'm in the business of making money...We don't need the Department of Education...We need 1,000 laser systems put in the sky -- and we need it right now."

An announcer cuts in: "John Raese's ideas are crazy," with the word "CRAZY" across the screen.

Then back to Raese: "Why am I running? Do I need this?"

The TPM Poll Average currently gives Manchin a lead of 46.9%-46.0%, in a race that has been neck-and-neck for several weeks.

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WV-SEN

PPP Poll: Manchin Leads By Six Points In WV-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 25, 2010, 2:55PM

The new survey of the West Virginia Senate race from Public Policy Polling (D) gives Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin the lead against Republican businessman John Raese.

The numbers: Manchin 50%, Raese 44%. The survey of likely voters has a ±2.8% margin of error. In the previous PPP survey from three weeks ago, Manchin had taken a lead of 48%-45%, after Raese had been ahead two weeks before that.

This race pitted Manchin's massive popularity as governor against President Obama's equally formidable unpopularity as president in this state. The polls have been very close, with alternating bouts of momentum by both Manchin and Raese.

The TPM Poll Average gives Manchin a lead of 46.9%-46.0%.

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Sunday Shows

The Sunday Show Line-Ups

Eric Kleefeld | October 22, 2010, 2:13PM

Marco Rubio, Charlie Crist, and Kendrick Meek at a Florida Senate debate

Here are the line-ups for the Sunday talk shows this weekend:

• ABC, This Week: DNC Chairman Tim Kaine, Retired Army Gen. Hugh Shelton

• CBS, Face The Nation: Karl Rove, DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen (D-MD).

• CNN, State Of The Union: Florida Senate candidates Marco Rubio (R), Kendrick Meek (D), Charlie Crist (I).

• Fox News Sunday: Senate candidate Pat Toomey (R-PA), Senate candidate Joe Manchin (D-WV).

• NBC, Meet The Press: RNC Chairman Michael Steele.

WV-SEN

NRSC Ad: Manchin Is 'Hunting For Votes' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 20, 2010, 1:52PM

From a NRSC campaign ad, "Hunting Trip"

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has a new ad in the West Virginia Senate race, accusing Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin of "camouflaging" his support for President Obama.

The ad uses a video of clip of Manchin with a hunting rifle -- but no camo gear -- lifted from Manchin's ad in which he distanced himself from national Dems by shooting a paper labeled as "Cap And Trade Bill."

"Joe Manchin is on a hunting trip -- he's hunting for votes," the announcer says. "But Manchin's camouflaging his support of President Obama's worst policies. Joe Manchin supported Obama's government takeover of health care. Joe Manchin supported Obama's stimulus bill. It wasted billions and created more debt. A good governor -- has a bad idea. Send Joe Manchin back to Charleston, and send a message to Obama."

The TPM Poll Average gives Republican nominee John Raese a lead of 46.8%-45.6%.

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WV-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: GOPer Raese Leads By 7 Points In WV-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 20, 2010, 1:10PM

West Virginia Senate candidates John Raese (R) and Joe Manchin (D)

The new Rasmussen poll of the West Virginia Senate race gives Republican businessman John Raese a strong lead against Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin, in the race to succeed the late Dem Sen. Robert Byrd.

The numbers: Raese 50%, Manchin 43%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from last week, Raese was only ahead by 49%-46%.

Despite Manchin's high popularity, Raese has taken the lead in many polls as a result of President Obama's deep unpopularity in the state. Raese's momentum was recently blunted as a result of a fumbled ad from the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which was taped in Philadelphia using a casting call for "hicky" looking actors. But in this poll, at least, he appears to have recovered his footing.

The TPM Poll Average gives Raese a lead of 46.8%-45.6%.

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WV-SEN

Fox Poll: GOPer Raese's Lead Shrinks To Three Points In WV-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 19, 2010, 12:23PM

Senate candidate John Raese (R-WV)

The new Fox News poll of the West Virginia Senate race shows Republican businessman John Raese just holding on to a narrow lead over Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin, in the contest to succeed the late Dem Sen. Robert Byrd.

The numbers: Raese 48%, Manchin 45%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3.8% margin of error. In the previous Fox poll from two weeks ago, Raese had a wider lead of 48%-43%.

Raese had previously enjoyed a strong lead over Manchin, even though the Dem is a very popular governor, because of President Obama's overwhelming unpopularity in the state. However, Raese's momentum was recently blunted as a result of an ad from his own party, via the National Republican Senatorial Committee, that was taped in Philadelphia using a casting call for "hicky" looking actors.

The TPM Poll Average gives Manchin an edge of 46.5%-45.7%.

Sarah Palin

Palin Endorses Raese In Pennsylvania -- But He's From West Virginia

Brian Beutler | October 19, 2010, 12:16PM

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin

Pennsylvania voters can't afford cap and trade legislation, says Sarah Palin. And that's why they need to send Republican John Raese to the Senate.

Except that John Raese is the Republican nominee in West Virginia.

Welcome to the latest Sarah Palin Twitter #fail.

This morning, the former half-term Alaska Governor turned kingmaker and kingbreaker in GOP politics told her hundreds of thousands of Twitter followers: "Pennsylvania:makes sense 2 send GOP 2 DC 2 avoid PA economic disaster that will occur under Obama/Pelosi Cap & Tax scheme; workers need Raese."

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WV-SEN

Mountaineers On Parade: The West Virginia Senate Debate

Eric Kleefeld | October 18, 2010, 10:59PM

West Virginia Senate candidates John Raese (R) and Joe Manchin (D)

The candidates for Senate in West Virginia met tonight for their one and only debate -- if it can be called a debate. For the most part, the four candidates seemed to use the night as an opportunity to present themselves for the first time to the voting audience. Republican businessman John Raese pitched himself as a man of the right; Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin put himself forward as a man of the commonsense middle; Mountain Party candidate Jesse Johnson, the candidate of the state's Green Party affiliate, was a man of the left; and Constitution Party candidate Jeff Becker was a man of the loony bin.

To be sure, there were attacks and replies between the candidates. But in many ways, even this was a part of them presenting themselves to the public. Going into the debate, the TPM Poll Average gave Manchin a very narrow lead of 46.8%-45.2%. So how did they do?

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WV-SEN

Poll: Dem Manchin Leads By 10 Points In WV-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 15, 2010, 11:08AM

Joe Manchin (D)

A new Orion Strategies/Marshall University poll of the West Virginia Senate race has some good news for Democrats -- with Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin sporting a double-digit lead against Republican businessman John Raese in the contest to succeed the late Dem Sen. Robert Byrd.

The numbers: Manchin 48%, Raese 38%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.6% margin of error. There is no prior Orion/Marshall poll for direct comparison.

The TPM Poll Average now gives Manchin a lead of 46.8%-45.2.

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WV-SEN

NRSC Admits Responsibility For 'Hicky' Casting Call, Fires Vendor

Eric Kleefeld | October 14, 2010, 12:33PM

Ad from the National Republican Senatorial Committee, "Stop Obama"

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is now admitting something they had previously denied: Their ad production company, Jamestown Associates, was directly responsible for the infamous casting call for "hicky" looking actors for an ad in the West Virginia Senate race.

The NRSC had previously denied responsibility for the casting call, pinning the blame on a subcontractor who handled the casting. But as Politico reported this morning, the casting agent Kathy Wickline has produced an e-mail from Jamestown Associates, containing that very language: "We are going for a 'Hicky' Blue Collar look. These characters are from West virginia so think coal miner/trucker looks."

Now, as Greg Sargent reports, the NRSC is admitting that their vendor was responsible -- and sacking them immediately -- and that the NRSC's previous statement to the contrary for the past week were "incorrect."

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WV-SEN

Kaine On Manchin's Rifle Ad: 'I'm Not Wild About It'

Christina Bellantoni | October 14, 2010, 11:37AM

Joe Manchin and Tim Kaine

DNC Chairman Tim Kaine said this morning he doesn't love West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin's much ballyhooed Senate ad featuring the Democrat firing his rifle at the "cap-and-trade" climate bill, but the gun isn't the problem.

"I'm not wild about it," Kaine told reporters at the Christian Science Monitor breakfast this morning.

Read more »

WV-SEN

DSCC Ad Attacks Raese On Jobs, Minimum Wage In WV-SEN Race (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 14, 2010, 10:46AM

From a DSCC campaign ad, "Spreadsheet."

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has a new ad in the West Virginia Senate race, employing a populist touch to attack Republican nominee John Raese as an out-of-touch big businessman.

"Around here, jobs are more than where you work. They're food on the table, and a better quality of life," the announcer says. "John Raese doesn't get that. How could he not pay worker's comp? Eliminate the minimum wage? Or sign a pledge that protected tax breaks for corporations sending jobs overseas?

"John Raese's job is CEO. So for him, maybe jobs are just another line on a spreadsheet. But around here, we know better."

The TPM Poll Average gives Raese a lead of 48.4%-45.4% over Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin.

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WV-SEN

CNN/Time Poll: WV-SEN Race Tied

Eric Kleefeld | October 13, 2010, 6:17PM

The new CNN/Time poll of the West Virginia Senate race shows a tie in the contest to succeed the late Democratic Sen. Robert Byrd. Furthermore, the race could potentially be spoiled -- though who knows how -- by a left-wing third party with a very rural-friendly name.

The poll has Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin and Republican businessman John Raese tied at 44% each, plus 5% for Jesse Johnson with the "Mountain Party," the state affiliate of the Green Party. The survey of likely voters has a ±3.5% margin of error. There is no prior CNN/Time poll of this race for direct comparison.

The TPM Poll Average gives Raese a lead of 48.4%-45.4%.

WV-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: GOPer Raese's Lead Shrinks To Three Points In WV-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 13, 2010, 1:35PM

Senate candidate John Raese (R-WV)

The new Rasmussen poll of the West Virginia Senate race shows Republican businessman John Raese still ahead against Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin, but with his lead tightening from where it was before.

The numbers: Raese 49%, Manchin 46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from last week, Raese led by 50%-44%.

This poll comes in the wake of a recent fumble by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which launched an ad that was produced in Philadelphia using a casting call for "hicky" looking actors. (The NRSC condemned the casting call when it was first reported, saying that it was done without their knowledge by a subcontractor.)

Read more »

WV-SEN

Firefighters Ad In WV-SEN: 'Joe Manchin Doesn't Hire Philadelphia Actors To Play Hicks' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 12, 2010, 2:31PM

Fire Fighters TV Ad "Responds to Carpetbagger John Raese's Attack Ad"

The International Association of Fire Fighters labor union has a new ad in the West Virginia Senate race, hitting back at the now-infamous ad from the National Republican Senatorial Committee that was produced outside the state, using a casting call for "hicky" looking actors. And this new ad features blue-collar guys boasting that they're real firefighters, and they're actually from West Virginia!

One firefighter declares: "I'm a Huntington firefighter. And like Joe Manchin, West Virginia is my home."

Another: "I'm a Dunbar firefighter. Joe Manchin doesn't hire Philadelphia actors to play hicks in his ads."

And another: "I'm a Charleston firefighter, and I heard Florida John Raese got a tax break on his Palm Beach mansion."

As a point of clarification, it wasn't Raese who put up the ad featuring "hicky" actors to show West Virginia voters that he was on their side. It was the national Republicans, who have said that the casting call was produced through a subcontractor without their approval.

The TPM Poll Average currently gives Raese a lead of 47.9%-45.1%.

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WV-SEN

Raese On 'Hicky' Ad: 'There Is No Such Thing As A Perfect Campaign'

Eric Kleefeld | October 12, 2010, 2:05PM

Senate candidate John Raese (R-WV)

Appearing on ABC News's Top Line, West Virginia Republican Senate nominee John Raese tried to brush off the recent flap over a national Republican ad in this key race, which much to the party's embarrassment was produced using a casting call for "hicky" looking actors.

Raese said that the controversy over the ad "doesn't throw me off any rails." He also added: "There is no such thing as a perfect campaign. Have you ever met anybody who ran a perfect campaign? You let me know about it."

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WV-SEN

PPP Poll: Dem Manchin Retakes Lead In WV-SEN Race

Eric Kleefeld | October 12, 2010, 11:17AM

In a rare piece of good news for Democrats, the new survey of the West Virginia Senate race from Public Policy Polling (D) has Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin retaking the lead over Republican businessman John Raese, in the big-ticket race to succeed the late Democratic Sen. Robert Byrd.

The numbers: Manchin 48%, Raese 45%. The survey of likely voters has a ±2.8% margin of error. In the previous PPP survey from three weeks ago, Raese led by 46%-43%.

The poll continues to find Manchin being extremely popular as governor, with a 68% approval and only 22% disapproval. However, he continues to be hindered by President Obama's extraordinary unpopularity here, with an approval rating of 33%-61%.

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WV-SEN

Meet John Raese: Wealthy Businessman, Frequent Candidate -- And Maybe Robert Byrd's Replacement

Eric Kleefeld | October 12, 2010, 8:32AM

Senate candidate John Raese (R-WV)

So just who is John Raese, the Republican businessman who could potentially be West Virginia's next Senator, if he wins the special election for the seat formerly held for over 50 years by the late Democratic Sen. Robert Byrd? He's a man who has been longtime political fixture in the state, but never actually winning anything -- except perhaps until now.

Raese comes from a family with a large presence in West Virginia business. He is president and CEO of Greer Industries, a major mining company, and also president of the West Virginia Radio Corporation, which owns more than 25 radio stations. He has run for office three times before, each time unsuccessfully.

He first ran for Senate way back in 1984, losing by a narrow 52%-48% against Democrat Jay Rockefeller in an open-seat race, which was held in the middle of the 1984 Reagan landslide. He later ran for governor in 1988, challenging the scandal-plagued Republican incumbent Arch Moore in the GOP primary, losing by 53%-47%. He ran for Senate again in 2006, challenging Byrd -- and spent $2.2 million of his own money -- ultimately losing by a very wide margin of 64%-36%.

With a Stassenesque electoral record like that, one would think of Raese as a sacrificial lamb on his way to yet another defeat. But maybe not this year -- as of right now, he's ahead, with a current lead of 49.4%-43.4% in the TPM Poll Average against Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin. And this is despite the fact that Manchin remains an overwhelmingly popular figure as governor.

"I've been a conservative in West Virginia before that was popular," Raese told CNN. "I've seen a change in West Virginia. Not a change in John Raese, but a change in West Virginia and a change in America.

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