2010 elections

TPM Approves These Messages: Five Great Ads Of 2010 (VIDEOS)

Eric Kleefeld | December 31, 2010, 3:07PM

With the year 2010 coming to a close, and a truly raucous election season behind us (and another set to begin), let's take a look at a real highlight of the cycle: A sampling, even just a small one, of some great campaign ads we got to see over the past year.

Unlike some of our other lists, we're not talking about a mix of great ads and awful ones that took on a kitsch value. (I'm looking in your direction, "I'm not a witch. I'm you," and also at you, "Aqua Buddha.")

No, here we're talking about truly great ads that applied ingenuity, creativity and pure guts to an election. We're talking about the ones whose creators deserve accolades and good spots on campaigns for 2012 -- and might just get them.

So get out your popcorn and your New Year's alcohol, and watch our five picks.

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Net Neutrality

95 Candidates Who Pledged Support For Net Neutrality Lost On Tuesday

Jillian Rayfield | November 4, 2010, 1:27PM

Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA)

The FCC's push for Net Neutrality legislation suffered another setback on Tuesday, after 95 of the candidates who pledged their support for it lost their elections.

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PA-SEN

Comeback Kid: GOPer Pat Toomey Finally Gets To The Senate

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 3, 2010, 12:10AM

Former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA)

Pennsylvania voters chose Republican Pat Toomey to take over the Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Arlen Specter (D) tonight.

This is a storyline that was supposed to play out for Toomey six years ago, when the conservative former Congressman challenged the moderate Specter in the 2004 GOP primary and lost.

A lot has changed in those six years, most of it tipping the balance of things in Toomey's direction. His fringy conservative fiscal politics -- Toomey is a former head of the Club For Growth -- have become GOP mantra with the rise of the tea party, and the shift rightward for his party forced Specter to change parties and become a Democrat. Specter's story ended, of course, with a successful primary challenge from the left mounted by Rep. Joe Sestak, the man Toomey defeated tonight.

Toomey now heads into a Senate caucus seemingly read to adopt his hardcore conservative fiscal views and equally right-leaning social policy agenda. Like Toomey, many of the incoming class of freshman Republican Senators have flirted with the idea of privatizing Social Security, and suggested the best way to reform the nation's health care problems is to undo all the reforming the last Congress just got done with.

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2010 elections

Senate In The Balance: TPM's Look At The 9 Key Races Still Up For Grabs

Eric Kleefeld | November 1, 2010, 5:06PM

Clockwise from top left: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO), Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI), Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA)

As we head into Election Day, one thing is clear for Senate Democrats: It's going to be bad. Seriously. There's no going anywhere but down. But how far down?

It's unlikely that Democrats will manage to lose their majority outright, since they're starting at the high mark of 59 seats. But things sure look rough. Open seats in Indiana and North Dakota seem to be gone already, along with incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas. Republican seats that seemed like potential Dem pickups much earlier in the cycle -- North Carolina and open seats in Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Ohio -- are clearly out of reach.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Stranger Than Fiction? TPM Casts The 2010 Midterms Movie]

The few bright spots for Democrats are open seats in Connecticut and Delaware, where very weak Republican candidates Linda McMahon and Christine O'Donnell have spared the Dems from total humiliation. So with that in mind, let's take a look at some other key races to watch tomorrow.

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PA-SEN

Polls: Toomey Leading In PA-SEN Race, Possibly Pulling Away

Eric Kleefeld | November 1, 2010, 10:33AM

Pennsylvania Senate candidate Pat Toomey (R)

A new crop of polls in the Pennsylvania Senate race shows Republican Pat Toomey pulling away somewhat against Democrat Joe Sestak, after Sestak had previously been closing the gap.

• Quinnipiac: Toomey 50%, Sestak 45%. The survey of likely voters has a ±2.8% margin of error. In the previous Quinnipiac poll from two weeks ago, Toomey's lead was a slightly narrower 48%-46%.

• Public Policy Polling (D): Toomey 51%, Sestak 46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3.5% margin of error. In the previous poll from two weeks ago, Sestak had taken a narrow edge of 46%-45%.

• The Muhlenberg daily tracking poll: Toomey 48%, Sestak 44%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.5% margin of error. Yesterday's tracking poll -- which overlaps this one by three days out of the four-day sample -- had Toomey ahead by a narrower 45%-43%.

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PA-SEN

Muhlenberg Tracking Poll: Toomey Keeps 2-Point Lead For PA-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 31, 2010, 11:35AM

Pennsylvania Senate candidates Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Sestak (D)

The new Muhlenberg daily tracking poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race has Republican Pat Toomey maintaing a narrow lead against Democrat Joe Sestak.

The numbers: Toomey 45%, Sestak 43%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.5% margin of error.

Yesterday's tracking poll -- which overlaps this one by three days out of the four-day sample -- had an identical Toomey lead of 45%-43%, after several previous days that had Toomey with stronger leads.

The TPM Poll Average gives Toomey a lead of 47.7%-43.4%.

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PA-SEN

Polls: Toomey Leads Sestak In PA-SEN -- But By How Much?

Eric Kleefeld | October 30, 2010, 12:36PM

Pennsylvania Senate candidates Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Sestak (D)

Two new polls of the Pennsylvania Senate race both put Republican Pat Toomey ahead of Democrat Joe Sestak, but by very different margins, and with different levels of undecided voters.

The new Marist poll: Toomey 52%, Sestak 45%. The survey of likely voters has a ±5% margin of error. In the previous Marist poll from a month ago, Toomey led by 51%-42%.

In today's Muhlenberg daily tracking poll: Toomey 45%, Sestak 43%. In yesterday's tracking poll -- which overlaps this one by three days out of the four-day sample -- Toomey's lead was a stronger 47%-42%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.5% margin of error.

The TPM Poll Average gives Toomey a lead of 48.0%-43.6%.

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PA-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Toomey Leads By 4 Points In PA-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 29, 2010, 1:00PM

Pennsylvania Senate candidates Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Sestak (D)

The new Rasmussen poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race has Republican Pat Toomey maintaining a narrow lead against Democrat Joe Sestak.

The numbers: Toomey 50%, Sestak 46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from last week, Toomey led by 48%-44%.

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PA-SEN

Muhlenberg Tracking Poll: Toomey Leads By 5 Points In PA-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 29, 2010, 10:04AM

Pennsylvania Senate candidate Pat Toomey (R)

Today's Muhlenberg daily tracking poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race gives Republican Pat Toomey a five-point lead, 47%-42%, over Democrat Joe Sestak.

In yesterday's tracking poll -- which overlaps this one by three days out of the four-day sample -- Toomey had a slightly wider lead of 48%-40%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Stranger Than Fiction? TPM Casts The 2010 Midterms Movie]

The TPM Poll Average gives Toomey a lead of 46.2%-43.1%.

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PA-SEN

Muhlenberg Tracking Poll: Toomey Leads By 8 Points For PA-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 28, 2010, 9:59AM

Pennsylvania Senate candidate Pat Toomey (R)

Today's Muhlenberg daily tracking poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race gives Republican Pat Toomey a solid lead over Democrat Joe Sestak.

The numbers: Toomey 48%, Sestak 40%. In yesterday's tracking poll -- which overlaps this one by three days out the four-day samples -- Toomey had a slightly narrower lead of 46%-41%

The survey of likely voters has a ±5% margin of error.

The TPM Poll Average gives Toomey a lead of 46.4%-43.1%.

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PA-SEN

CNN Poll: Toomey Leads By 4 Points In PA-SEN, Aided By Enthusiasm Gap

Eric Kleefeld | October 27, 2010, 5:18PM

Pennsylvania Senate candidates Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Sestak (D)

The new CNN poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race gives Republican Pat Toomey a narrow lead over Democrat Joe Sestak.

The numbers, among likely voters: Toomey 49%, Sestak 45%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3.5% margin of error. In the previous poll from a month ago, Toomey led by 49%-44%.

This poll also provides a further data point about how the enthusiasm gap is hurting Democrats. Among registered voters, a wider pool than the likely voters, Sestak actually leads by 47%-43%, up from a 45%-45% tie in the last poll.

The TPM Poll Average gives Toomey a lead of 46.1%-43.7%.

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PA-SEN

Polls: Toomey Still Ahead In PA-SEN Race

Eric Kleefeld | October 27, 2010, 9:45AM

Pennsylvania Senate candidates Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Sestak (D)

Two new polls out this morning for the Pennsylvania Senate race show Republican Pat Toomey with a lead over Democrat Joe Sestak, but with a significant number of undecideds remaining.

The new Franklin & Marshall poll gives Toomey 43% and Sestak 36%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.4% margin of error. In the previous poll from a month ago, Toomey led by 46%-34%.

In today's Muhlenberg daily tracking poll, Toomey leads by 46%-41%. The survey of likely voters has a ±5% margin of error. In yesterday's tracking poll -- which overlaps this one by three days out the four-day samples -- Toomey led by a slightly wider 48%-40%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Toomey a lead of 45.4%-43.2%.

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PA-SEN

Reuters/Ipsos Poll: Toomey And Sestak Tied In PA-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 26, 2010, 2:04PM

Pennsylvania Senate candidates Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Sestak (D)

The new Reuters/Ipsos poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race shows a tie between Republican Pat Toomey and Democrat Joe Sestak, the latter of whom has shown strong momentum at closing the gap in some recent polls.

The poll has Toomey and Sestak at 46%-46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.9% margin of error. In the previous Reuters/Ipsos poll from all the way back in late August, Toomey led by 47%-37%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Toomey a narrowing lead of just 45.9%-45.1%.

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PA-SEN

Muhlenberg Tracking Poll: Toomey's Lead Grows To 8 Points In PA-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 26, 2010, 9:48AM

Pennsylvania Senate candidates Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Sestak (D)

The new Muhlenberg daily tracking poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race suggests Republican Pat Toomey is solidifying his lead again, after Democrat Joe Sestak was previously closing the gap.

The numbers: Toomey 48%, Sestak 40%. The survey of likely voters has a ±5% margin of error.

In yesterday's tracking poll -- which overlaps today's numbers by three days of sampling, out of four days each -- Toomey led by 47%-42%. By contrast, the tracking poll released last Friday had the two tied at 43%-43%.

The TPM Poll Average still shows a very close race: Toomey 45.8%, Sestak 44.0%.

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PA-SEN

Muhlenberg Tracking Poll: Toomey Leads By Five Points In PA-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 25, 2010, 9:29AM

Pennsylvania Senate candidates Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Sestak (D)

The new Muhlenberg daily tracking poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race shows Republican Pat Toomey regaining a lead over Democrat Joe Sestak.

The numbers: Toomey 47%, Sestak 42%. The survey of likely voters has a ±5% margin of error.

The survey of likely voters has a ±5% margin of error. In yesterday's tracking poll -- which overlaps today's numbers by three days of sampling, out of four days each -- Toomey led by 46%-43%. In the poll released last Friday, the two were tied at 43%-43%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Toomey a narrow lead of 46.2%-44.3%, with a recent strong surge for Sestak.

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PA-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Toomey's Lead Shrinks To Four Points In PA-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 22, 2010, 1:40PM

Joe Sestak and Pat Toomey

The new Rasmussen poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race provides yet another data point that Democrat Joe Sestak is closing the gap against Republican Pat Toomey, with Toomey's lead shrinking from ten points down to just four.

The numbers: Toomey 48%, Sestak 44%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous poll from less than two weeks ago, Toomey led by a much stronger 49%-39%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Toomey a lead of 46.1%-44.4%, with Sestak's blue line rapidly approaching Toomey's red one.

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PA-SEN

Muhlenberg Tracking Poll: Toomey and Sestak Tied In PA-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 22, 2010, 9:48AM

Joe Sestak and Pat Toomey

Today's Muhlenberg tracking poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race shows a tie between Republican Pat Toomey and Democrat Joe Sestak, at 43%-43%.

The survey of likely voters has a ±5% margin of error. In yesterday's tracking poll -- which overlaps today's numbers by three days of sampling, out of four days each -- the two were also tied at 43%-43%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Toomey a lead of 46.2%-44.2%. As we noted this morning, Sestak trailed for months, but is quickly catching up in the home stretch.

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PA-SEN

Sestak Surging From Behind (Again) -- Will It Be Enough?

Eric Kleefeld | October 22, 2010, 8:30AM

PA-SEN Candidate Joe Sestak (D)

Something very odd is happening in the Pennsylvania Senate race. Just two weeks ago or so, Republican former Rep. Pat Toomey seemed the odds-on favorite to pick up the open seat of Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter, who had lost his Dem primary to Rep. Joe Sestak in a revolt against Specter's party-switch. This would have quickly returned the seat to GOP hands, after Specter's nearly 30 years as a Republican Senator were interrupted by his party switch. But suddenly, there's a real race again.

Right after the Democratic primary, Sestak enjoyed an initial bump, and took the lead against Toomey. But then various factors set in -- notably the general Republican gains in the polls around the country, and Sestak having to awkwardly deal with questions about an attempted job offer from the White House to get him out of his Dem primary challenge against Specter.

Soon Sestak and Toomey began to tie, and then tie some more. Soon enough, Toomey took a definite lead, and held it throughout much of the summer and early fall.

But now that's all beginning to change.

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PA-SEN

Toomey: 'I Couldn't Believe' Sestak Ran The Dog-Poop Ad (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 21, 2010, 1:56PM

From a Joe Sestak ad, "Belle"

Pat Toomey is now responding to a recent ad from Joe Sestak, in which the Democratic nominee in the Pennsylvania Seante race compared the Republican's policies and the legacy of the Bush years to the fecal matter that his dog leaves behind, and which he has had to clean up.

During a friendly interview with the local Fox station in Philadelphia, Toomey was asked about the ad. "I gotta tell you, I think it's ridiculous. First of all, I couldn't believe that he would run an ad like that," Toomey said.

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PA-SEN

Polls: Sestak And Toomey In A Dead Heat For PA-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 21, 2010, 9:58AM

Pennsylvania Senate candidates Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Sestak (D)

New polls out this morning confirm that the Pennsylvania Senate race has gotten very tight, and very quickly, with Democrat Joe Sestak catching up rapidly after Republican Pat Toomey had previously led by strong margins.

Toomey had led in polls for months, but Sestak is now making a serious race of it in the home stretch. In some ways, this is a lot like Sestak's win in the Democratic primary over incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter -- the political world had largely written him off, but then undecided voters broke heavily his way in the end. Will it be enough this time, too?

The new daily tracking poll from Muhlenberg, conducted over a four-day period: Sestak 43%, Toomey 43%. The survey of likely voters has a ±5% margin of error. In the previous, overlapping survey from yesterday, Sestak had taken a lead of 44%-41%.

The numbers from Quinnipiac: Toomey 48%, Sestak 46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error. In the previous survey from a month ago, Toomey was ahead by 50%-43%.

The TPM Poll Average has Toomey holding on to a narrow advantage of 46.4%-43.9%, largely the on the strength of previous surveys that gave him wider leads.

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PA-SEN

Sestak And Toomey Clash In PA-SEN Debate: No, You're More Extreme

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 20, 2010, 8:51PM

Pennsylvania Senate candidates Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Sestak (D)

The two men vying to replace Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) squared off in a televised debate tonight that centered around which of them was the more extreme. Pat Toomey, the Republican nominee, tried to paint Democrat Joe Sestak as representing the extreme liberal edge of the Democratic Party, negatively associating him with teachers unions and what he called Democrats who are "not friends" of Israel.

Sestak, a retired admiral and current member of Congress, fought back by positioning Toomey with personalities like Sarah Palin and Delaware Senate nominee Christine O'Donnell. He also took every possible opportunity, it seemed, to place President Bush's name as close to Toomey's as possible.

Toomey is the former president of the ultra-conservative Club For Growth and a former Republican member of Congress. He held firm on his belief in school vouchers, decreased regulation and at least the partial privatization of Social Security.

Toomey also got Palin's endorsement today, perhaps reaffirmig his conservative bona fides with his base, but also leaving him open to Sestak's attacks that he's too far to the right for Pennsylvania's swinging electorate. (Toomey declined to say whether he thinks Palin is qualified to be president.)

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PA-SEN

Second Poll Shows Sestak Leading In PA-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 20, 2010, 10:54AM

Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA)

A second public poll is confirming yesterday's big PPP (D) numbers showing that Democrat Joe Sestak has closed the gap with Republican Pat Toomey in the Pennsylvania Senate race.

A new Muhlenberg College poll -- the first set of numbers in the school's two week tracking poll of the final sprint to the finish in Pennsylvania -- shows Sestak leading 44-41.

The poll creates an interesting dynamic for tonight's live debate between Sestak and Toomey. Where national observers had all but written off the race for Sestak, now virtually everyone is chattering about the potential for a Democratic surprise in the Keystone State.

The TPM Poll Average shows Toomey with a 46.0-43.3 lead in the race. Trendlines show Sestak is closing that gap, fast.

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Social Security

Sestak Joins Pledge To Oppose Social Security Cuts

Brian Beutler | October 20, 2010, 9:18AM

Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA)

Senate candidate Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) is the latest to join the progressive petition opposing any cuts to Social Security.

"Joe joined the statement at SocialSecurityProtectors.com and opposes any effort that would not maintain present benefits," his spokesman says. "We know that two-thirds of retirees rely on Social Security for most of their retirement income and the system can be protected without risking seniors' retirement savings in the stock market. As one example of how to address solvency without harming current benefits, a return to the tax rates of the Clinton era (when we created 23 million jobs) for the top two percent of earners - the wealthiest of Americans who received the majority of the tax cuts of the Bush era (when we created zero net jobs) - would cover Social Security's shortfall over the next 75 years."

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Sarah Palin

Palin Endorses Raese In Pennsylvania -- But He's From West Virginia

Brian Beutler | October 19, 2010, 12:16PM

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin

Pennsylvania voters can't afford cap and trade legislation, says Sarah Palin. And that's why they need to send Republican John Raese to the Senate.

Except that John Raese is the Republican nominee in West Virginia.

Welcome to the latest Sarah Palin Twitter #fail.

This morning, the former half-term Alaska Governor turned kingmaker and kingbreaker in GOP politics told her hundreds of thousands of Twitter followers: "Pennsylvania:makes sense 2 send GOP 2 DC 2 avoid PA economic disaster that will occur under Obama/Pelosi Cap & Tax scheme; workers need Raese."

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PA-SEN

Poll: Sestak Posts Big Gains In PA-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 19, 2010, 10:28AM

Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA)

A new poll from PPP (D) shows Democrat Joe Sestak has closed a huge gap in the Pennsylvania Senate race and now runs one point ahead of Republican nominee Pat Toomey. The poll shows Sestak ahead 46-45.

In the last PPP poll of the race, conducted in mid-August, Toomey led 45-36. While much of the national attention has been focused elsewhere -- *cough* Delaware *cough* -- Sestak appears to have been slowly building on his surprise primary win to give Toomey a run for his money.

"Three things have happened in the last 2 months to move this race back to toss up status," the pollster writes. "Sestak has made up a large deficit with independents, he's consolidated his base, and Democratic interest in the election has picked up with election day moving closer."

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PA-SEN

Sestak Ad Features Bag Of Dog-Waste (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 15, 2010, 6:03PM

From a Joe Sestak ad, "Belle"

Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) has a colorful new ad in the Pennsylvania Senate race. In the ad, Sestak holds up a bag of his dog's excrement -- comparing it to the national problems left behind by Republicans for the Democrats to deal with.

"I'm Joe Sestak, and this is Belle," Sestak says, showing his little dog. "My family loves Belle. But she can make a mess. And we have to clean it up. I think about Belle when I see Congressman Toomey's ads attacking me.

"It made me sick to bail out the banks. But I had to clean up the mess left behind by these guys," Sestak says, referring to photos of Toomey and former President George W. Bush. "They let Wall Street run wild. Now Pat Toomey is attacking me for cleaning up his mess."

The TPM Poll Average gives Toomey a lead of 47.2%-41.3%.

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2010 elections

Tea Party Fakers? Dems Blamed For Co-Opting 'Tea Party' Label To Split Conservative Vote

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 27, 2010, 8:22AM

At a tea party rally.

In many ways, 2010 will be the Year of the Tea Party. The angry conservative movement has bumped off a number of moderate and establishment Republicans in the primary season, packed huge rallies across the country and provided most of the best drama of the political year. But the success and prominence of the tea party movement has led to another trend: across the country, Democrats have been accused of helping get phony "Tea Party" candidates on the ballot in competitive races, in an attempt to split the vote between the Republican and fake "Tea Party" nominee so the Dem can cruise to victory.

It all made a lot of sense at the start. Back at the beginning of 2010, the tea party movement was showing real signs of splitting off into a separate political party. This was before the tea partiers set their sights on remaking the GOP with Senate nominees like Sharron Angle, Ken Buck and Christine O'Donnell, and, in turn, the GOP embraced the movement with both arms. A few clever Democratic activists, it appears, set about to take advantage of the schism between the GOP and tea party.

Evidence of the alleged plan has popped up in Florida, Michigan, New Jersey and Pennsylvania this year. Time will tell how successful it's been, but so far it's had very little effect.

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PA-SEN

Quinnipiac Poll: GOPer Toomey Leads By 7 In PA-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | September 22, 2010, 1:04PM

Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) and former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA)

A Quinnipiac poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race out this morning shows Republican former Rep. Pat Toomey leading Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak 50%-43%.

The latest survey is the first Quinnipiac poll of the contest since a July 11 poll found the race deadlocked at 43%-43%. A number of polls have come out this week with similar findings to today's survey: A September 18 Fox News poll had Toomey leading Sestak 48%-40%, the September 16 Times Leader survey showed the Republican up 40%-36%, and a Municipoll survey from the same day found Toomey with a nine-point advantage, 45%-36%.

The TPM Poll Average finds Toomey comfortably ahead in the contest, leading Sestak 47.0%-39.0%.

The latest survey's margin of error is ±3.8 percentage points.

For the latest on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

PA-SEN

Fox News Poll: GOPer Toomey Leads Dem Sestak by 8 In PA-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | September 21, 2010, 10:39AM

Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) and former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA)

A new Fox News poll of the Pennsylvania Senate race out this morning finds Republican former Rep. Pat Toomey ahead of Democratic U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak by eight points, 48%-40%.

The latest survey was performed by Pulse Opinion Research, a Rasmussen offshoot that uses an automated dialing system to conduct their polls. The firm's September 11 survey showed Toomey up on Sestak by six, 47%-41%. Yesterday, two other polls came out on the race-- a Times Leader poll found Sestak down four, 40%-36%, while a Municipoll survey showed a nine-point deficit for the Democrat, down 45%-36%.

The TPM Poll Average finds Toomey comfortably ahead in the contest, leading Sestak 46.7%-38.7%.

The latest survey's margin of error is ±3.0 percentage points.

For the latest on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

PA-SEN

Arlen Specter Too Busy Playing Squash To Discuss Sestak's Senate Chances

Christina Bellantoni | September 20, 2010, 5:31PM

Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA), Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA)

The Republicans might have some fun with the pool report just out from President Obama's trip to Pennsylvania to help raise money for Rep. Joe Sestak's Senate bid and the Democratic party.

Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) was there to greet Air Force One when Obama landed. A pool reporter grabbed Specter on the tarmac.

"How do you think Congressman Sestak is doing with his campaign?" asked Politico's White House reporter Carol Lee.

Specter paused for 5 seconds, then answered: "I'm late for the squash court so I'm gonna defer that to when I can answer in one spot."

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PA-SEN

Poll: Toomey Ahead By 9 In PA-SEN

Marc Kilstein | September 20, 2010, 12:25PM

Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) and former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA)

On the heels of a Times Leader poll showing Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nominee Joe Sestak trailing Republican former Rep. Pat Toomey by four, a new survey from Municipoll shows Sestak down by nine.

The latest survey, conducted on behalf of PoliticsPA, finds Toomey ahead 45%-36%. Since this is the first time Municipoll has surveyed the contest, there are no results for direct comparison. The latest survey is more in line with other recent polls of the race, including Rasmussen's September 13 poll that had the Republican up eight, 49%-41% and a September 11 Fox poll that showed Sestak down six-points, 47%-41%.

The latest survey's margin of error is ±3.24 percentage points.

For the latest on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

PA-SEN

Poll: Toomey Leads By 4 In PA-SEN

Marc Kilstein | September 20, 2010, 11:06AM

Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) and former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA)

The Times Leader is out with a new Pennsylvania statewide poll and things appear to be looking up for the state's Democratic nominees. In the race for Senate, Democratic U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak trails Republican former Rep. Pat Toomey by four points, 40%-36%. In the state's gubernatorial race, Democratic nominee Dan Onorato finds himself down only one point, 38%-37%, to Republican State Attorney General Tom Corbett.

These findings show each race as tight as they've been in recent months' polling. Since this is the first poll conducted for The Times Leader, there are no polling results for direct comparison. A September 13 Rasmussen poll found Toomey up 49%-41% in the Senate race, and an earlier September 11 Fox News poll gave the Republican nominee a 47%-41% advantage over Sestak. The September 13 Rasmussen poll also showed Corbett up double-digits on Onorato, 49%-39%, while the Fox poll produced an equivalent 10-point lead for the Republican, 50%-40%.

The TPM Poll Average for both races still show the Republican nominees comfortably ahead-- in the Senate race, Toomey leads 46.6%-39.8%, while Corbett finds himself on top of the gubernatorial race, 47.3%-37.6%.

The margin of error for the latest survey is ±4.0 percentage points.

For the latest on the closely-watched Senate race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

Club For Growth

Club For Growth Ads Target Senate Candidates In Five Key Races (VIDEO)

Marc Kilstein | September 16, 2010, 5:48PM

From a Club For Growth ad

A new arm of the conservative group Club for Growth has rolled out a $1.5 million television ad campaign today, with spots targeting "the liberal, out-of-touch" records of five Democratic Senate candidates. Let's take a look.

First up -- Nevada. The TPM Poll Average shows Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid leading Republican Sharron Angle 47.3%-44.7%. Club for Growth's ad suggests that Angle "understands what Nevada is going through." While she lives in her "middle class Nevada house", Reid is living in the "million-dollar Ritz Carlton in Washington."

Read more »

PA-SEN

Fox News Poll: GOPer Ahead By Six In PA-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 14, 2010, 12:56PM

Former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA)

The Republican nominee for Senate in Pennsylvania, Pat Toomey, is leading the race against Democratic nominee Joe Sestak 47-41, according to a new poll for Fox News conducted by a subsidiary of the Rasmussen polling company. The survey of 1000 likely voters was conducted Saturday and has a margin of error of 3.0%.

Recent past polling of the race has also shown Toomey ahead. The TPM Poll Average shows the Republican leading the race 46.9-40.1.

According to Fox, polling on the ground shows a tough environment for Democrats.

"Half of respondents said they wanted their vote to represent opposition to the policies of the Obama administration, and 56 percent favored repealing the president's national health care program," the pollsters report. "Only 40 percent approved of the job Obama is doing as president. The president carried Pennsylvania in a 10-point landslide in 2008."

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2010 elections

TPM's Top 10 Senate Races To Watch

Brian Beutler | September 13, 2010, 8:35AM

Kentucky Senate candidates Jack Conway and Rand Paul talk with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

Campaign season doesn't really heat up until September ... which means now. That means all the scandals and ads and ups and downs you've heard and read about in the last several months were just stage-setters. Most voters really begin paying attention now.

It's looking like a tough year for Senate Democrats, almost of whom are polling below 50 percent. Several weeks ago, many Republicans -- including NRSC Chair John Cornyn -- thought Republicans wouldn't be able to retake the Senate. Today, it's a distinct possibility. There are a number of critical races, but you should really keep an eye on these 10.

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PA-SEN

Sestak Ad Touts Navy Service -- And No Mention Of Congress (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | September 10, 2010, 6:02PM

Joe Sestak (D-PA) campaign ad, "Leading"

Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) has a new ad in the Pennsylvania Senate race, highlighting his prior career of military service. And in an interesting sign of the anti-incumbent environment in this election, Sestak's ad does not ever mention that he has been a member of Congress for the last two terms.

"Duty. Service. Joe Sestak has lived his life by those values. Thirty-one years protecting America," says the announcer, accompanied by video clips of Sestak in his Navy days. "Leading the fight against terrorism. Trusted to command 15,000 of our sons and daughters in combat. Now he's running to serve Pennsylvania -- standing up to the bosses in both parties. A decorated veteran, fighting for us. Admiral Joe Sestak."

The TPM Poll Average gives Republican former Rep. Pat Toomey a lead of 46.3%-39.6%.

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2010 elections

Obama To Campaign For Reid, Other Top Senate Candidates

Eric Kleefeld | September 9, 2010, 3:22PM

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and President Obama

President Obama will be hitting the campaign trail for the home stretch of several top-tier races this fall -- including for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in Nevada.

The Democratic National Committee today announced a series of Obama events. The appearance with Reid will be held October 22 in Las Vegas.

Other appearances on tap are: September 28 in Madison, Wisconsin, where Sen. Russ Feingold is up for re-election; October 10 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, where Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak is facing Republican former Rep. Pat Toomey for Senate; and October 17 in Ohio, where Democrat Lee Fisher is facing Republican Rob Portman for Senate.

Late Update: As Greg Sargent reports, Feingold will not be at the event in Wisconsin.

PA-SEN

Polls: Republican Toomey Leading Pennsylvania Senate Race

Evan McMorris-Santoro | August 31, 2010, 5:00PM

Former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA)

Two new polls of the race to replace Sen. Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania show Republican nominee Pat Toomey building momentum against Democratic nominee Joe Sestak.

A Rasmussen poll of 750 likely voters conducted yesterday shows Toomey with a six-point lead (he's ahead of Sestak 48-42). A Reuters/Ipsos poll of 407 likely voters conducted over the weekend shows Toomey's lead to be even greater: he leads that poll 47-37.

Both polls echo the TPM Poll Average for the contest, which shows Toomey settling into a relatively comfortable lead as the general election campaign hits full swing. The average shows the Republican ahead 46.3-39.6. The previous Rasmussen poll, from August 16, showed Toomey leading 48-40. There is no other Reuters/Ipsos poll for direct comparison.

Previous Rasmussen polling has shown the race to be much closer, with Sestak trailing by very little or even leading in the hectic weeks surrounding his May 18 primary win over Specter.

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