
WaPo: Dems Map Out Midterm Campaign Strategy For Obama
The Washington Post reports that Democrats are debating how President Obama's campaign presence could help or hurt them in this year's election, with Obama unlikely to visit certain states: "In the anti-establishment climate, some Democrats are saying that it's smart for Obama to keep his distance from candidates in difficult races, allowing them to run against Washington and avoid the downward pull of his approval ratings. Others say he should heed the lessons of last year's Democratic losses and begin campaigning early enough to make a difference with the Democratic base."
Obama's Day Ahead
President Obama will depart from Andrews Air Force Base at 9:45 a.m. ET, arriving at 11:05 a.m. ET in Charlotte, North Carolina. He will tour the Celgard manufacturing facilities at 11:45 a.m. ET. He will deliver remarks at 11:55 a.m. ET, on jobs and the economy, and host a discussion with workers. He will depart from Charlotte at 1:40 p.m. ET, arriving back at Andrews Air Force Base at 2:45 p.m. ET.
Most of the commentary about last night's elections has centered around Republican pickups in the New Jersey and Virginia statehouses. But what's gone largely unnoticed is that the two congressional seats up for grabs last night both went to Democrats, and that will have immediate ramifications for health care reform.
The NY-23 seat abdicated by Republican John McHugh (who resigned to become Secretary of the Army) went to Democrat Bill Owens--the first Democrat to hold the seat in over a century. And the CA-10 seat abdicated by Democrat Ellen Tauscher (who resigned to become Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Affairs) went to Democrat John Garamendi.
That creates some simple arithmetic. Yesterday, Democrats had 256 voting members in the House. By week's end, they'll have 258. Last week, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi could afford to lose no more than 38 Democratic votes on a landmark health care reform bill. Next week, after Owens and Garamendi are sworn in, she can lose up to 40. For legislation this historic and far-reaching, she'll need every vote she can get--and both seem likely to support reform.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS (18) | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (3)The first poll is out in the NY-23 special election, a vacancy created by the appointment of former Republican Congressman John McHugh to be President Obama's Secretary of the Army -- and it shows a wide open three-way race.
The numbers from Siena: Republican Dede Scozzafava 35%, Democrat Bill Owens 28%, and Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman 16%, with a ±3.9% margin of error.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS (3) | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The upcoming NY-23 special election, caused by the resignation of GOP Rep. John McHugh when he became President Obama's Secretary of the Army, could very well turn into a genuine three-way race -- and the right-wing Club For Growth appear ready to help make it happen.
The issue here is that a lot of conservatives are looking at the Republican nominee, state Rep. Dede Scozzafava, and seeing a big liberal -- she's pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, and is somewhat supportive of labor unions. New York has a separate Conservative Party -- which normally thrives under New York's fusion voting system -- and they now have their own candidate, accountant Doug Hoffman.
The Club has released a new poll that finds some potential for a Hoffman candidacy. The poll asks this question: "Would you prefer your next member of Congress be a liberal Democrat, a liberal Republican, or a Conservative Party candidate who would align himself with Republicans in Congress?" The result: Conservative 36.3%, liberal Democrat 30.7%, and liberal Republican 17.7%.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS (3) | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The DCCC is on the air with a new TV ad in the NY-23 special election, a Republican-held swing seat that opened up when Rep. John McHugh was appointed Secretary of the Army by President Obama. The new ad goes after the GOP nominee, state Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, for voting for higher taxes -- the sort of attack we typically see Republicans launching against the Dems.
"Scozzafava was criticized for managing the investment arm of a company, whose subsidiaries owe $192,000 in back taxes," the announcer says. "The icing on the cake? She voted for more taxes and fees for you -- 190 times. Typical Albany politician Dede Scozzafava: A tax record we can't afford."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS (3) | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (2)The special election in New York's 23rd District has just barely started, and a date hasn't been formally set -- in fact, former Rep. John McHugh (R) only just resigned yesterday, in order to become President Obama's Secretary of the Army -- but the TV ads are already airing from both sides.
Democratic candidate Bill Owens, an attorney and Air Force veteran -- who was also a registered independent before launching his campaign -- has this ad introducing himself to voters. "In all, I've helped to attract over 2,000 jobs to upstate New York," Owens says. "I'm running for Congress, and I approved this message, because my family taught me to fight for what matters, and right now, we need to fight for upstate New York."
Meanwhile, the NRCC has a new pair of attack ads -- one on TV, one on radio -- against Owens and promoting their own candidate, state Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, by tying Owens to the right's most frequently invoked menace, Nancy Pelosi, and also to President Obama.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS (4) | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)FBI: Palin Not Under Investigation
The Anchorage Daily News reports that the FBI has taken the unusual step of affirmatively declaring that Sarah Palin is not under investigation. "We are not investigating her," said FBI spokesman Eric Gonzalez. "Normally we don't confirm or deny those kind of allegations out there, but by not doing so it just casts her in a very bad light. There is just no truth to those rumors out there in the blogosphere."
Obama's Day Ahead
President Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama arrived in Moscow this morning. At 6 a.m. ET (2 p.m. local time), Obama participated in a wreath-laying ceremony at the Russian Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. At 6:50 a.m. ET, he met with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, with an expanded working meeting at 7:25 a.m. ET. At 10:30 a.m. ET, they will hold a joint press conference. At 11:30 a.m. ET, Obama and the First Lady will meet with U.S. Embassy personnel. At 12:35 p.m. ET, the Obamas will have dinner with President Medvedev and Russian First Lady Svetlana Medvedeva.
With reports coming in that President Obama will appoint Rep. John McHugh (R-NY) as the new Secretary of the Army, the political world will now be gearing up for what could be yet another high-stakes special Congressional election in upstate New York, so soon after we already had a photo-finish for the former House seat of appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY). And so far, both parties seem to be downplaying expectations.
The district itself has all the makings of a swing seat. President Obama carried it 52%-47% in 2008, just slightly behind the curve of his overall 53%-46% national victory over John McCain. Before that, it voted 51%-47% for George W. Bush in 2004. Compare this to the NY-20 special election, which was won by Democrat Scott Murphy by a razor-thin margin, where Obama had carried it 51%-48% in 2008, and Bush had taken it 53%-45% in 2004. So on paper, this could be a potential Dem pickup in the special election.
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