
Returns for 435 House elections will start rolling in a few hours from now. Well before they do, though, most Dems had long conceded that more than a handful of races are already lost. With these seats for all intents and purposes off the table before the polls opened, the number of truly contested seats the GOP needs to win control of the House is effectively much smaller than the magic 39.
Assuming the House does change hands, then, the big open question is how big the swing will be. There are scores of seats in play, but the battle lines have already moved past over a dozen House members who, in most cases, have already been written off by their own party.
If you're keeping score tonight, don't hold your breath for any of these Democrats.
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The 34 Democrats who voted against health care reform last night are by and large a familiar set. They overlap significantly--though not entirely--with the 39 Democrats who voted against the House health care bill in November. Just as in November, most hail from contested districts, in the south and the midwest. But just as in November, there are some surprises--members you wouldn't normally expect to see voting against legislation so closely associated with the Democratic party.
Most of the Democratic "no" votes are as you would expect: conservative members from conservative districts, in many cases facing difficult re-election challenges. Blue Dog chair Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-SD) is one such member. So is Rep. Rick Boucher (D-VA).
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (1)Rep. John Tanner (D-TN), who previously voted "no" on the House health care bill, said today he will not change his vote.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)House Democrats are in a caucus meeting on the Hill right now but, according to lawmakers, leadership has not yet discussed how they plan to move forward on health care reform.
Some -- including Reps. John Tanner (D-TN) and Earl Blumenauer (D-OR) -- have told our reporters that they'd like to see health care broken into smaller chunks and passed in separate votes.
"A 2,000 page bill is not something I'm particularly interested in," Tanner said. He suggested breaking the bill into pieces that "Republicans can agree with us on."
Separately, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid met this morning in Reid's ofice.
Reporting by Evan McMorris-Santoro and Brian Beutler
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The retirement of Rep. John Tanner (D-TN) appears at first glance to give the Republicans a decent pickup opportunity in 2010, in a district that voted heavily for John McCain in 2008 -- but the Dems could have a shot at keeping the seat, too.
The district's recent voting history in presidential elections suggests a Republican trend. It voted for Al Gore in 2000 by 51%-48%, but in 2004 went for George W. Bush by 53%-46%, and in 2008 for John McCain by 56%-43%.
However, a Democratic source told us that the picture isn't so simple. "The biggest misnomer out there right now is this a Republican seat," the source said, pointing out that the district also voted for the Democratic candidates in the 2002 gubernatorial and Senate races -- Dems narrowly won the former, and substantially lost the other -- and also voted for Harold Ford Jr. in his unsuccessful 2006 Senate race.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Rep. John Tanner (D-TN), a member of the Blue Dogs, has announced his opposition to the current health care bill from the House Democrats:
"After careful review of the current legislation pending in the House and the Congressional Budget Office's analysis, I believe the bill will not help control the long-term costs of health care and puts in place an infrastructure that is not fiscally sustainable over time. I am unable to support this legislation in its present form.PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (1)
"Most of us realize that serious reforms are needed to fix what is broken in our health care system. Specifically, we should work to reform health insurance; ensure no one can be denied health coverage because of a pre-existing condition; and slow the upward curve of health care costs. I will continue talking with Tennesseans and working with others to achieve these goals, improve our health care system and ensure our reforms help solve, rather than contribute to, our nation's long-term fiscal challenges."
GOP's Hopes Rekindled, But Internal Arguments Could Continue
The New York Times reports that the mixed election results from last night -- with Republicans winning solidly in the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races, but losing the NY-23 special election -- will simultaneously rekindle the GOP's hopes and continue arguments about the party's direction. "Conservatives can win when they emphasize the right things and don't allow their message to get co-opted," said former Michigan GOP chairman Saul Anuzis. "The Democrats and some of their friends in the media attempt to paint all conservatives as fire-breathing cavemen."
Obama's Day Ahead
President Obama will participate in a 10:30 a.m. ET credentialing ceremony for foreign ambassadors. He will depart the White House at 11:15 a.m. ET, arriving at 1:30 p.m. ET in Madison, Wisconsin. He and Secretary of Education Arne Duncan will meet with students at Wright Middle School at 2 p.m. ET, and Obama will deliver remarks on strengthening the education system at 2:30 p.m. ET. He will depart from Madison at 3:55 p.m. ET, arriving back at the White House at 5:55 p.m. ET. He and the First Lady will host an event at 7:15 p.m. ET, celebrating classical music.