
After a series of public embarrassments, and faced with polling data that suggests the GOP agenda is driving women toward the Democratic Party, Republicans may be tacitly acknowledging that kowtowing to their conservative base in an election year has some ugly ramifications.
But that doesn't mean they're chastened. They're just hoping everyone forgets.
Congressional Republicans abandoned their push to roll back the Obama administration's contraception guarantee for female employees weeks ago. But now they're hoping that they can wipe the crux of what Democrats have termed the GOP "war on women" off the books entirely.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)John Boehner's debt limit bill, dead-on-arrival in the Senate, is on autopilot for passage in the House this evening. If as expected he sends it over to the upper chamber to be killed, he will actually speed up the process by which the Senate can pass its final debt limit bill, for parliamentary reasons outlined at the bottom of this post.
So the great guessing game in the Capitol right now is figuring out 1). Which Republican Senators will ultimately support Harry Reid's debt limit bill, and 2). What changes will have to be made to it between now and midnight to make sure enough of them are on board so the bill doesn't go down in flames in the wee hours of Sunday morning.
Right now, Democrats are looking to about 11 gettable GOP votes: Sens. Olympia Snowe (R-ME), Susan Collins (R-ME), Bob Corker (R-TN), Mark Kirk (R-IL), Scott Brown (R-MA), Lamar Alexander (R-TN), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX), Saxby Chambliss (R-GA), Mike Crapo (R-ID), and Tom Coburn (R-OK). The last three were the Republican members of the Gang of Six deficit reduction group.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Add Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) to the list of Republican lawmakers unsatisfied with the party's reluctance to back Social Security cuts.
The longtime Senator, who will retire at the end of her term in 2012, called on both parties to include the program in debt ceiling talks on Tuesday in a speech at the Heritage Foundation. She's releasing her own legislation to spur talks, a bill that would raise the retirement age gradually to 69 and reduce benefits by trillions over the next several decades by pegging the annual cost-of-living- adjustment (COLA) to one percent below inflation every year.
"We could have waited and let things settle after the debt increase vote," she said. "I'm introducing my legislation because I don't think we can wait and I do think it should be part of the overall debate on raising the debt limit."
Hutchison told the audience that the move was necessary, because without changes to the system, recipients would receive a 23% cut to their core benefits in 2036. But an audience member noted to Hutchison that a 1% cut in benefit increases over a similar period of time could produce comparable decreases. Hutchison responded that a key part of her plan was gradually introducing seniors to lower benefits.
"You're right that as you accumulate the cuts it's like anything else over time, it does get to be more," she said. "But if you take it one year at a time, it's a very small lowering of the increase. I don't think at any point would you go into core benefits."
House Republicans avoided Social Security in their budget, which most of the caucus voted for in the Senate as well, and Hutchison isn't the only member of her party annoyed at its exclusion. Sens. Rand Paul (R-KY), Lindsey Graham (R-SC), and Mike Lee (R-UT) have introduced a bill that would means-test benefits while also raising the retirement age. A group of House members led by Pete Sessions (R-TX) recently introduced legislation that would create an optional privatized Social Security program.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Obama Calls For Reform Of No Child Left Behind
In this weekend's YouTube address, President Obama called upon Congress to replace the No Child Left Behind Act, with states being given flexibility for education reform as has been done with his administration's "Race to the Top" grants.
"Our challenge now is to allow all fifty states to benefit from the success of Race to the Top," said Obama. "We need to promote reform that gets results while encouraging communities to figure out what's best for their kids. That why it's so important that Congress replace No Child Left Behind this year - so schools have that flexibility. Reform just can't wait."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)A powerful union is lobbying Democratic and Republican congressional negotiators to make sure they don't curtail worker rights when they finalize new FAA legislation.
A conference committee composed of a bipartisan group of senators and congressmen will soon sort out differences between two different versions of the bill. But the House bill contains a provision that would make it much more difficult for airline and rail workers to form unions. More on that provision here -- it would reinstate old rules that count abstentions as "no" votes in union elections, thus stacking the deck against pro-union workers.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Down to its smallest details, the Republican Study Committee's spending cut proposal exposes real rifts in the Republican party. While the GOP's basically fine with slashing arts funding, a lot of the items in that budget -- meant to imply liberal profligacy -- actually have significant Republican support.
For instance, the RSC plan would slash $150 million in spending on Essential Air Service -- a government program, which ensures small and rural communities continue to receive commercial airline service.
Flash back to 2007, and possible Republican presidential candidate, Sen. John Thune (R-SD) spearheaded an effort to restore such service to his constituents. "I am encouraged by the Senate's action to move this important legislation. Essential Air Service is just that, essential. It is essential to the people it serves and it is essential that the House of Representatives pass this legislation without modification so that we can restore commercial air service for Brookings," said Thune. "Ensuring access to communities like Brookings strengthens the local economy, provides consumers with choices, and makes the entire commercial airline network more valuable."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The three senators who have announced their 2012 retirements thus far appeared Sunday on This Week. Sens. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) and Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) both maintained that they think they could have won re-election -- and the other, Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND), only commented on why his state has turned against the status quo in Washington.
All in all, these reactions seemed to coincide with the chances that these same individual Senators' seats would stay with their current party or caucus.
Following Conrad's retirement, the Cook Report changed the rating of this race from "Likely Democratic" to "Toss Up." Before Lieberman announced his retirement, Cook had the race as only "Leans Democratic," due in part to the possibility that a three-way race could split the Dem vote and throw the seat to the Republicans -- but it is now the much safer "Likely Democratic." And Hutchison's seat has seen no change -- it was "Likely Republican" before she announced her retirement, and it is "Likely Republican" now.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The biggest question headed into tomorrow's State of the Union address doesn't seem to be what President Obama will say -- it seems clear he will in some way acknowledge the recent Republican gains, talk about the need for spending cuts, defend health care reform against efforts to repeal it, etc. No, the big question is -- which Democrat is sitting with which Republican?
As you know, there has been a push in the last couple weeks for Democratic and Republican members to sit with each other, as opposed to the usual separated seating. There is no assigned seating, of course, but we've always been treated to the sight of separate aisles that stand to applaud the president, or sit stony-faced.
The idea this year was promoted by the think tank Third Way, which is associated with moderate Democrats, and taken up by Sen. Mark Udall (D-CO). It has also been promoted as a pro-civility measure to suggest a sense of Congressional unity, in the wake of the shooting of Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ).
Let's take a look at some of the key pairings that are coming up. I asked Udall's office about who he would be sitting with. Their response: "Stay tuned Eric!"
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Here are the line-ups for the Sunday talk shows this weekend:
• ABC, This Week: Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT), Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND), Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX).
• CBS, Face The Nation: Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY).
• CNN, State Of The Union: Former Secretary of State Colin Powell.
• Fox News Sunday: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL).
• NBC, Meet The Press: House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA), Assistant House Minority Leader James Clyburn (D-SC), former George W. Bush adviser Karen Hughes, former Bill Clinton Chief of Staff John Podesta.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)We now have an open Senate seat in Texas -- which should likely be a safe GOP hold, but also provide a lot of fun in the 2012 primary season. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison has officially announced her much-expected retirement.
The Dallas Morning News reports:
In a letter to supporters, Hutchison said she enjoyed serving Texas.PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)
"I am announcing today that I will not be a candidate for re-election in 2012," she wrote to supporters. "That should give the people of Texas ample time to consider who my successor will be."
Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) is sending out a warning to his fellow Republicans: Stand tall against government spending this fall, and be prepared for a showdown.
"[B]efore they're replaced in January, all of the Democrats who are put out of a job in November will be able to come back and rob the nation blind," DeMint writes in the conservative National Review.
At a glance it appears DeMint is lashing out at Democrats. But his real concern is that members of his own party -- who he described last week as "retiring Republican appropriators" -- will join Democrats during the lame-duck session of Congress and pass large spending legislation to keep the government running (what's known on the Hill as an omnibus spending bill).
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Within 48 hours, the Republican line on financial regulatory reform went from "filibuster" to "we're very close to a deal." Why the shift? Republicans and Democrats will offer up spin all day, chalking up the progress to their own doggedness, but in the end it comes down to a simple reality. Key Republicans, sincere about passing new rules for Wall Street, but intimidated by the notion of blocking financial regulatory reform, let it be known to their leadership that, at some point, they would side with Democrats to break a filibuster. Maybe not on round one, or even round two. But eventually.
"Folks on our side of the aisle want a bill," Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) told TPMDC and a few other reporters Monday night. "I know that. I just [had a] discussion with some of our leadership on the floor. You know, we want a bill."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (2)Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) officially announced this morning that she will not resign her seat in the United States Senate, reversing her earlier plans to leave office before the end of her term in 2012.
Hutchison had previously challenged incumbent Gov. Rick Perry in the Republican primary, and had planned to resign during the primary itself. She later changed her mind about resigning during the primary, but had kept the door open to resigning afterward. Perry ultimately won the March 2 primary. Hutchison's new decision comes after many Republicans, including the Republican leadership and the state's 20 GOP House members, had asked her to stay.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX), who recently lost a Republican primary for governor of Texas, is expected to announce today that she will serve out her full Senate term through 2012.
For the past year and more, Hutchison had challenged incumbent Gov. Rick Perry in the Republican primary. She had previously planned to resign her office during the primary campaign itself, but had reversed her decision in November, though she kept the door open to resigning after the March 2 primary. Had Hutchison resigned, the seat would have been filled with a temporary appointment by Perry, along with an expedited special election.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX), who was being challenged in the Republican primary by Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison and Tea Party activist Debra Medina, has won renomination -- not just leading his competitors, but apparently surpassing the 50 percent of the vote needed to win outright and avoid a runoff.
It is not yet official that Perry truly did win more than 50% of the vote -- but it appears very likely. And in any case, Hutchison has conceded the race.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Today is a big day in Texas, with voters going to the polls in the primary election for governor and other races. The top-ticket item is the Republican primary, in which incumbent Gov. Rick Perry is being challenged by Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison and Tea Party activist Debra Medina.
Perry enjoys a substantial lead in the polls, but could end up falling short of the 50 percent support needed to avoid a runoff in April. The TPM Poll Average has Perry with 44.4%, Hutchison 28.9%, and Medina 17.6%.
The most interesting part of this race is just how Perry went from vulnerable to being out front, and the rise of the Tea Party narrative in the campaign.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Today: The Texas Primary
Voters are headed to the polls today in the Texas primaries, to pick nominees for governor and other offices. Incumbent Republican Gov. Rick Perry is being challenged by Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison and Tea Party activist Debra Medina. Perry has been well ahead in the polls, but the big question is whether he will be able to surpass the 50% needed to avoid a runoff election in April.
Obama's Day Ahead
President Obama and Vice President Biden will receive the presidential daily briefing at 9:15 a.m. ET. Obama will depart the White House at 9:45 a.m. ET, take off from Andrews Air Force Base at 10 a.m. ET, and arrive at 11:35 a.m. ET in Savannah, Georgia. He will tour Savannah Technical College at 11:55 a.m. ET, and deliver remarks on jobs and the economy at 12:30 p.m. ET. He will tour a local manufacturing facility at 1:20 p.m. ET, and tour a local small business at 2:50 p.m. ET. He will depart from Savannah at 3:40 p.m. ET. arriving back at Andrews Air Force Base at 5 p.m. ET, and back at the White House at 5:15 p.m. ET.
A new survey of the Texas Republican gubernatorial primary by Public Policy Polling (D) finds that tea party activist Debra Medina has lost some support, and could possibly have been hurt by comments that seemed to indicate that she might be a 9/11 Truther.
The numbers: Incumbent Gov. Rick Perry 40%, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison 31%, and Medina 20%. Three weeks ago, the numbers were Perry 39%, Hutchison 28%, and Medina 24%, with Hutchison in serious serious danger of falling into third place and missing out on a spot in the expected April 13 runoff.
About two weeks ago, Medina was asked during an appearance on Glenn Beck's radio show whether she believed in 9/11 conspiracy theories. "I think some very good questions have been raised in that regard, there are some very good arguments and I think the American people have not seen all the evidence there, so I have not taken a position on that," said Medina.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The new survey of Texas by Public Policy Polling (D) finds Republican Gov. Rick Perry with a narrow lead over the likely Democratic nominee, Houston Mayor Bill White, in a general election match-up -- at the same time as Texans disapprove of Perry's performance.
The numbers: Perry 48%, White 42%. Perry is facing a primary challenge from Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison and conservative activist Debra Medina, in which Perry is currently in the lead. In the other general election scenarios, Hutchison leads White by 45%-38%, and Medina leads White by 44%-38%.
The interesting part, however, is that Perry's approval rating is at only 33%, to 50% disapproval, and yet he still leads White in the general election. The reason for this is that Perry's approval among Republicans is only 51%-28%, but they pick him over White by 83%-10%. The Republican primary is serving to drive down both Perry's and Hutchison's favorables among their party base, as they compete for votes, but the base is sticking with the eventual party nominee (whoever it might be) for now.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (1)The new survey of the Texas gubernatorial race by Public Policy Polling (D) has some bad news for Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, who is challenging incumbent Gov. Rick Perry in the Republican primary. Hutchison is now just barely holding on to second place, and could be overtaken for a spot in the primary runoff by businesswoman and conservative activist Debra Medina.
The numbers: Perry 39%, Hutchison 28%, Medina 24%, with a ±4.8% margin of error. If no candidate gets over 50% of the vote in the primary on March 2, a runoff will be held on April 13. Hutchison has previously discussed this possibility -- but this poll suggests that there's a chance that she has to work hard to get into the runoff itself.
From the pollster's analysis: "Perry is at 39% to 28% for Kay Bailey Hutchison and 24% for Medina. There are major splits within the race along ideological lines. Perry is at 42% with conservatives, and Medina is now outpolling Hutchison with them by a 25-23 margin. Hutchison cleans up with moderates, leading Perry 49-29, but unfortunately for her prospects they account for only 20% of GOP primary voters."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (1)The new Rasmussen poll of Texas finds incumbent Gov. Rick Perry continuing to lead Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in the Republican gubernatorial primary. However, the leader in that race could end up remaining under 50 percent, and thus face a runoff, thanks to significant support for a third candidate.
The numbers: Perry 44%, Hutchison 29%, and Debra Medina, a nurse and conservative activist, at 16%. Two weeks ago, Perry was ahead by 43%-33%-12%. The pollster's analysis points out just how daunting the math is for Hutchison at this point: "Turnout is often difficult to project for primaries. However, for Hutchison to win with the current attitudes, she would need more than 50% of the primary voters to be politically moderate."
Hutchison pointed out recently that this race could be headed to a runoff. At the rate things are going, that could very well happen, which would extend the race from the March 2 primary all the way to the April 13 runoff. A big question is whether Medina can continue to have a high level of support -- and if Hutchison can stop her own political bleeding.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Here are the line-ups for the Sunday talk shows this weekend:
• ABC, This Week: Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK), Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE), Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN), Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL).
• CBS, Face The Nation: Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl (R-AZ), Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY).
• CNN, State Of The Union: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Senate candidate Carly Fiorina (R-CA).
• Fox News Sunday: Guest list not yet announced.
• NBC, Meet The Press: Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL), Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX), Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT).
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) has announced that she will not resign from the Senate while she is running for governor of Texas, which she had previously planned on doing as she challenges incumbent Gov. Rick Perry in the Republican primary.
"A newly appointed senator would be selected in the midst of a political storm," Hutchison said in a statement that cited the battle against the Democrats on health care and energy legislation, "And will need on-the-job training in the midst of a crisis."
This comes after a Rasmussen poll today, which showed her trailing Perry by 46%-35% -- and which also showed that 60% of likely primary voters disagreed with her plans to resign. Perry had frequently been attacking Hutchison for the planned resignation, as well.
Although Hutchison had previously announced her intention to resign at some point, she is now spinning this new decision as herself bravely saying no to what others had told her to do: "Some have told me that for the sake of political expedience I should quit the Senate now to focus on winning the primary. To them I say, perhaps its time we elect a governor who puts a little less priority on what is politically expedient."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)A new Rasmussen poll of Texas has Gov. Rick Perry ahead in his Republican primary in 2010, in which he is being challenged by U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison.
The numbers: Perry 46%, Hutchison 35%, with a ±3.5% margin of error. Two months ago, when Hutchison had officially launched her campaign and was touring the state, she had a 40%-38% lead.
One key question should give Hutchison pause: "Should Kay Bailey Hutchison remain in her position as senator while she is running for Governor?" The answer here is Yes 60%, No 26%. Hutchison has indicated that she will resign from the Senate -- a move that could possibly be hurting her.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX) is brushing off former Vice President Dick Cheney's endorsement of Perry's primary challenger, U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison -- saying he'd rather have his current support from Sarah Palin.
Perry touted an upcoming endorsement from Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, as evidence of Republican support. Perry was then asked if he would rather have Cheney or Palin, who endorsed him back in February.
Perry's response: "I think I'd stick with Sarah."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Former Vice President Dick Cheney may have left office overwhelmingly unpopular with the country at large, but he's headed back on the campaign trail -- to endorse Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) in her campaign for governor, challenging incumbent Gov. Rick Perry in the Republican primary.
Cheney is scheduled to attend a Hutchison fundraiser on November 17, an environment of Texas Republicans where he's probably still more popular than not.
In terms of endorsements, each candidate has a big GOP name in their corner. Cheney is for Hutchison, while Perry has previously been endorsed by Sarah Palin.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The campaign of Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX) is now accusing its political opponents -- and he has many, considering he has to deal with not only Democrats but also a Republican primary challenge from U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison -- of sabotaging his Web site and causing it to break down!
The Austin-American Statesman reports that the Perry campaign was hosting a live video Webcast, which crashed. "This planned and coordinated attack was political sabotage, and we are working to identify those responsible for this illegal activity," said campaign spokesman Mark Miner.
The thing is, it appears quite possible that there might not have been any malicious attack at all. The Statesman's reporter notes: "I logged in about 10 minutes before the Webcast and was able to see it, but another Statesman staffer who attempted to log in after it started got an error message that said: 'Unable to connect to database server ... This could mean your hosting provider's database server is down.'"
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Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX), told a local news radio show in Texas that she plans to resign her Senate seat in October or November in order to focus full-time on her campaign for Governor in 2010.
Hutchison said she'll remain in the Senate long enough to fight President Obama on health care and cap-and-trade. "I'm trying to finish those things in a responsible way and then I'm coming home to try to give leadership to Texas," said Hutchison.
This is in fact a widely expected move, and had been openly discussed by her fellow Texas Senator, NRSC chairman John Cornyn.
A resignation would be immediately filled through an interim appointment by Republican Gov. Rick Perry -- whom Hutchison is challenging in the GOP primary -- and there would then be an expedited special election in May 2010. The Republicans would be initially favored due to the state's natural partisan bent, but the race would likely attract a lot of money from both national parties, simultaneously fighting over a single Senate seat and the whole national political narrative going into the mid-terms.
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