
Senate Republicans quickly united behind House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) on Tuesday after he telegraphed his intention to use the debt limit as leverage to avoid a scheduled tax increase. Democrats balked at his demand that raising the debt ceiling -- which is set to max out this December -- be paired dollar-for-dollar with spending "cuts and reforms." The widening rift foreshadows another self-inflicted battle, the likes of which nearly collapsed the U.S. economy last fall.
"A request of the President to ask us to raise the debt ceiling ought to generate a significant response to deal with the problem of deficit and debt," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) told a handful of reporters Tuesday afternoon in the Capitol.
In a Tuesday speech, Boehner said, "I will again insist on my simple principle of cuts and reforms greater than the debt limit increase" -- something his conference did last summer. Further hinting at chaos, he scoffed at the idea of raising taxes, even as Democrats insist they won't agree to another major debt-reduction deal that excludes new revenues.
McConnell wasn't the only Republican senator who backed up Boehner's stance.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)New Hampshire Republican Party Chair Jack Kimball, who won his post earlier this year with the help of Tea Party activists, has dug in against calls from state GOP leaders for him to resign as a result of problems with the party organization.
"I won't step down. I will go to that meeting and they will look me in the eye and they will vote," Kimball declared at a press conference Thursday, the New Hampshire Union Leader reports. In the face of a possible removal, Kimball also urged the board to "vote conscience instead of politics...I plead with them not to pick this fight."
The state GOP has had fundraising and personnel problems this year, since Kimball took over, and has also lost a number of special elections for the state legislature. In response, numerous state GOP leaders, including freshman Sen. Kelly Ayotte, have called upon Kimball to resign.
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Senate Republicans are preparing to foreclose on the Democrats' single best hope for addressing the country's structural deficit without shifting a huge cost burden on to seniors and other Medicare beneficiaries. It's a testament to the deep division between the parties on the key driver of future U.S. debt -- which might not matter if debt wasn't the high-stakes issue du jour in Washington.
Broadly speaking, there are two competing schools of thought about how best to reduce federal Medicare spending. One version works much like the House GOP budget's Medicare privatization plan -- it involves capping overall Medicare spending, and outsourcing the financing of seniors' health care to private insurers. This shifts a significant cost on to seniors themselves, but Republicans like the idea for two reasons: (1) It reduces federal spending by fiat; and (2) It rations health care via the private sector -- based on what services seniors think they'll need, and what services insurers will agree to pay for.
The Obama administration's alternative is a gentle twist on government rationing. It preserves Medicare as a single-payer system but shaves off waste-creating incentives so that over time the provision of care to beneficiaries is more affordable, more efficient, more research-based than it is now without explicitly "rationing" by declining more services over time. Or at least that's the goal.
And that's where the Independent Payment Advisory Board comes in. It's the most promising of the many new cost-cutting initiatives created by President Obama's health care law. IPAB will be tasked with implementing new ways to reduce Medicare spending, and, though its powers are limited in several key ways -- for instance, it's explicitly forbidden to "ration" health care -- its recommendations take effect almost automatically.
There's just one problem: Each of the board's 15 members has to be confirmed by the Senate. That means filibusters and 60 vote requirements stand in the way of staffing a panel that Republicans decry as a government rationing board. And months ahead of the nominations, they're telling Obama "good luck with that!"
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)In response to the Obama administration's renewed efforts to close the Guantanamo Bay prison, Senate Republicans introduced legislation on Wednesday that would codify the detention facility as the primary location for current and future detainees.
"Attorney General Holder and President Obama: Guantanamo Bay is not going to close," Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) said at a press conference introducing the bill. "I respect Holder, but let me say categorically there is no pathway forward when it comes to closing Guantanamo in the foreseeable future."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Update at 3:47 p.m.: Sen. Saxby Chambliss' office says he didn't show Ayotte the photo and he has not seen it himself.
Amid reports that the White House will not release a photo of a slain Osama bin Laden, a photo of bin Laden is circulating among some senators.
Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) tells TPM another senator showed her a photo of a deceased bin Laden with the understanding that it was an authentic photo the Navy Seals took of him after he was killed.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Six senators, led by Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC), are pushing for sweeping changes to the nation's laws governing detainees and the war on terror, including one that would strip Attorney General Eric Holder and the Justice Department as a whole of the power to make decisions about where to try suspected terrorists.
The group of senators, which includes Sens. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH), Scott Brown (R-MA), Saxby Chambliss (R-GA), Joe Lieberman (I-CT), are working with Republicans on the House Armed Services Committee on a bill that would usher in comprehensive detainee policy changes and would, among other things, affirm the military's right to detain, hold and interrogate detains at its discretion without the involvement of the Department of Justice or Holder.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Total opposition to earmarking is a key tea party tenet, and the battle to get Republicans to voluntarily ban it in their ranks is already raging. Establishment leaders like Minority Leader Mitch McConnell -- who favor earmarking for its time-honored electoral implications -- are clashing with pro-ban Senators led by Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), the body's tea party hero.
Lining up behind DeMint in the push to end earmarks are Sens. Jim Coburn (R-OK), John Cornyn (R-TX), John Ensign (R-NV) and Mike Enzi (R-WY) -- along with Senators-elect Pat Toomey (R-PA), Marco Rubio (R-FL), Rand Paul (R-KY), Mike Lee (R-UT), Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) and Ron Johnson (R-WI).
McConnell has reportedly been fighting behind the scenes to squash the proposed ban, and Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK) -- one of the Senate's most conservative members -- is publicly blasting his anti-earmark colleagues for hypocrisy.
Who wins the scrum could have broad implications in 2012.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)In a debate that got moderately tense earlier on Monday, New Hampshire senatorial candidates Kelly Ayotte and Paul Hodes mostly focused on jobs and taxes, but managed to get in a few personal attacks along the way.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The U.S. Chamber Of Commerce is dropping a flurry of TV ads in key Senate races across the country as we step into the final weeks of 2010 election season. The group has pledged $75 million in spending this cycle -- and if the first $2 million is any judge, most of that money is going to help Republicans.
Via the AP:
[The Chamber] has the biggest footprint, spending $1 million in Florida against Gov. Charlie Crist, who is running for the Senate as an independent. The chamber has endorsed the Republican candidate, Marco Rubio. The chamber is spending $500,000 in Kentucky against Democrat Jack Conway. The chamber this week endorsed Republican Rand Paul, and it is spending about $300,000 in New Hampshire against Senate Democratic candidate Paul Hodes and $250,000 in Colorado against Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet.
Not all of the Chamber's support is going to the GOP however. Just today, the Chamber announced it's backing Gov. Joe Manchin (D-WV) in the special election to fill the late Robert Byrd's Senate seat. No word yet on whether the group will buy pro-Manchin ads, but some recent polling shows the governor may need the help.
Here now are a sample of the Chamber's all-negative, all pro-GOP TV ads up across the country at the moment:
A new ad by Karl Rove-backed outside group American Crossroads attacks New Hampshire Senate nominee Rep. Paul Hodes (D) for calling himself a "fiscal conservative" in a recent ad.
"Hodes voted for the pork-filled stimulus bill," the American Crossroads ad says. "$1.9 million to study ants in Africa. $39 million for office upgrades for politicians. Billions wasted and unemployment still higher."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Democratic New Hampshire senatorial candidate Paul Hodes has an interesting way of describing himself in a recent TV ad: "You deserve a senator," he says, "who's a real fiscal conservative."
The TPM Poll Average gives Hodes' Republican opponent Kelly Ayotte a lead of 48.7%-41.0%.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The new Rasmussen poll of the New Hampshire Senate race gives Republican former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, who just narrowly won her primary this past Tuesday, a seven-point lead over Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes.
The numbers: Ayotte 51%, Hodes 44%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.5% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from early August, Ayotte led Hodes by 51%-38%.
The TPM Poll Average gives Ayotte a lead of 48.7%-41.0%.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Some new poll numbers for the New Hampshire Senate race from Public Policy Polling (D), conducted over the weekend before yesterday's primary, show Republican former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte starting the general election with a small lead over Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes.
The numbers: Ayotte 47%, Hodes 43%. The survey of likely voters has a ±2.2% margin of error. In the previous PPP survey from mid-July -- which used a more permissive and Dem-friendly registered voter screen -- Ayotte led Hodes by a similar 45%-42% margin. The TPM Poll Average gives Ayotte a lead of 48.0%-40.0%.
Interestingly, the poll also shows that Ayotte's opponent that she very narrowly defeated in the Republican primary, Ovide Lamontagne, would not have had any significant difference in electability against Hodes. In this survey, Lamontagne leads Hodes by 47%-44%.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)After an extremely close race, former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte has won the Republican nomination for senator in New Hampshire, the secretary of state has announced. Ayotte leads tea party-backed Ovide Lamontagne by little more than 1,600 votes.
Lamontagne had shown signs of a surge in the past few weeks, and the closeness of the results may mean that he could possibly call for a recount.
If the results stand, Ayotte will face Rep. Paul Hodes (D) in the general election.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (1)The New Hampshire Republican Senate primary is still too close to call -- but might not be for long, the Union Leader reports, with a result possibly coming soon. As of right now, establishment-backed Kelly Ayotte has a very narrow lead over Tea Party-backed candidate Ovide Lamontagne.
Deputy Secretary of State David Scanlan told the paper that his office is getting close to a final result. "There are some numbers we want to double-check," said Scanlon.
With 90% of precincts reporting, Ayotte has a slim edge of 38%-37%, with a raw vote lead of just 1,120 votes.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Update at 9:52 AM ET: With 85% of precincts reporting, Ayotte is now ahead 979 votes.
The Republican primary in New Hampshire has come down to former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte and Tea Party-backed Ovide LaMontagne, and the results are still too close to call.
With 83% of precincts reporting, Ayotte is ahead 38%-37%, which amounts to less than 1,000 votes.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Tonight marks the last major night of the 2010 primary season. And what a wild and wacky season it's been -- and could still prove to be tonight.
This is the last multi-state primary night this year. After tonight, the only one primary left is Hawaii's this Saturday.
So let's take a look at some of tonight's races. There are Tea Party insurgents against establishment GOP moderates, Dems fighting it out to keep their jobs, and a whole lot of fun throughout.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)More bad news for Kelly Ayotte: A Magellan poll released today shows the Republican establishment's preferred New Hampshire Senate candidate only leading her primary opponent Ovide Lamontagne 35%-31% ahead of tomorrow's primary.
LaMontagne, the Tea Party favorite, has been gaining some ground on the establishment-backed Ayotte over the past few weeks. The previous Magellan poll, from September 1, showed Ayotte leading Lamontagne 34-21. A PPP poll released today shows LaMontagne trailing Ayotte by seven points.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The New Hampshire Republican Senate primary tomorrow is getting even tighter, with a new PPP poll showing Tea Party-backed Ovide LaMontagne only trailing frontrunner (and establishment pick) Kelly Ayotte by seven points.
LaMontagne has gained serious ground since the last PPP poll in July, when he was trailing Ayotte by a whopping 39 points.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Bill Binnie, a candidate in the Republican primary for senate in New Hampshire, has addressed rumors that he had received death threats over his pro-choice stance on abortion, telling the Conway Daily Sun: "Why am I being attacked by these outside groups? Do you think their motivation is anything other than that? Look who is attacking me, it's a real issue. I think (Thursday) we got over 1,000 pieces of mail to my home, 1,000. We don't answer our phone anymore.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte was sailing along in New Hampshire's Republican senate primary. She was way ahead of her Republican opponents -- and her potential Dem rival Rep. Paul Hodes -- in the polls, was backed by the establishment GOP, and was even counted among the ranks of Sarah Palin's "mama grizzlies" when the former half-term governor endorsed Ayotte back in July.
But somewhere between the primary in-fighting and concerns about Ayotte's conservative record, former state Board of Education chairman and Tea Party-backed candidate Ovide Lamontagne began to gain some ground.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The new Magellan Strategies (R) poll of the New Hampshire Senate primary shows former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, the establishment choice for the GOP nomination, leading the wide-open field. But it's not a sure thing, with plenty of volatility in the numbers.
The numbers: Ayotte 34%, former state Board of Education chairman Ovide Lamontagne 21%, businessman Bill Binnie 17%, and businessman Jim Bender 13%. The survey of likely primary voters has a ±3.3% margin of error.
The previous Magellan poll from May had Ayotte at 38%, Binnie at 29%, Lamontagne at 9%, and Bender at only 4%. The TPM Poll Average has Ayotte at 36%, Binnie 23%, Lamontagne 15%, and Bender 8.5%.
The primary will be held on September 14.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Bill Binnie, who is running in the Republican primary for senator of New Hampshire, put up a web video on his campaign website yesterday, promising that, if elected, he will make sure "all immigrants learn English." After all, he says, it's the "language of America," and "it's the language of international commerce, science, and even the internet."
Apparently Binnie has never seen the video of the Russian Trololo guy.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Kelly Ayotte, a candidate for the Republican Senatorial nomination in New Hampshire, is now giving her support to amending the Constitution to get rid of birthright citizenship for the children of illegal immigrants.
On the bright side, though, she is saying we should of course be cautious about the whole thing, and says the best focus now is to secure the border.
As the Huffington Post reports, Ayotte told a voter who asked about the issue:
"Well, I know that there's a number of proposals that are being brought forward right now to look at that issue. And I think that we should. Because one of the issues is we have to, obviously, when we look at our Constitution, if we're going to propose any changes to it we have to be very thoughtful and careful about that because it's a great document. But that said, we have people who are coming here just to become, to get healthcare and then leave. And they're not even being part of our society and there's something wrong with that. But fundamentally, I think the best thing we can do right now is secure our borders, enforce our existing immigration laws and English is the language of our country."PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)
A new Rasmussen poll of the New Hampshire Senate race finds Republican Kelly Ayotte -- the front runner in the Republican primary -- with a 13-point lead over Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes, 51%-38%. The latest numbers show Hodes down six points to GOP hopeful Bill Binnie, 46%-40%.
Ayotte has held an advantage in the polls through the duration of the campaign. The last Rasmussen poll, conducted on July 12, showed her leading Hodes 49%-37%. In late July, a University of New Hampshire survey found similar results, with Ayotte on top 45%-37%. A PPP poll from July 25 showed a much closer contest, with the GOPer holding a slight 3-point lead -- a statistical tie, given the survey's ±3.26 margin of error -- but no other poll in the last few months has produced a similar result.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Bill Binnie, a Republican candidate for Senate in New Hampshire, has filed a complaint with the Federal Election Committee that alleges his Republican primary opponent Kelly Ayotte coordinated an attack ad against Binnie with a conservative group, in violation of FEC rules.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Kelly Ayotte, the frontrunner in New Hampshire's Republican Senate primary and a Sarah Palin-approved "Mama Grizzly," has two new TV ads out touting her record as a tough-on-crime state attorney general. The new spots -- one 60 seconds long, the other 30 seconds -- tell the story of Mike Briggs, a police officer shot and killed in the line of duty. It was Kelly Ayotte, the ads say, who brought Briggs's killer to justice by seeking the death penalty.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)The University of New Hampshire is out with some new polling (PDF) of the state's Senate race, and the numbers still don't look all that good for Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes. The new poll shows Republican Kelly Ayotte -- the frontrunner in the GOP primary -- leading Hodes 45%-37% among likely voters. Bill Binnie, another possible contender for the Republican nomination, also leads Hodes 41%-38%.
Still, there is some good news here for the Democrat -- the poll does show Hodes gaining ground on his likely Republican opponent. The university's last survey -- from April -- showed Ayotte leading Hodes 47%-32%.
A PPP poll released yesterday showed an even tighter race, with Hodes down only three points against Ayotte.
The TPM Poll Average of the race shows Ayotte with a 47.2%-37.9% lead over Hodes. The TPM Poll Average shows Binnie ahead of Hodes 45.2%-39.1%. The margin of error for the latest University of New Hampshire is ±4.6 percentage points. The primary is September 14.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)A new PPP (D) survey of the New Hampshire Republican Senate primary finds Kelly Ayotte cruising in first with a huge lead over other would-be Republican nominees. The poll has Ayotte with 47%, rival Bill Binnie with 14%, and the other contenders mired in the single digits.
Ayotte's lead in this PPP poll is the largest she's had. A Magellan poll from late May gave Ayotte only a nine-point leader over Binnie, and a PPP poll from April put Ayotte's lead at 24 points.
The TPM Poll Average shows former state Attorney General Ayotte with a general election lead of 48.1-38.2 over Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)A new PPP (D) survey (PDF) of the New Hampshire Senate race shows Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes trailing both of his most likely Republican opponents -- but just barely. The survey found Republican Kelly Ayotte leading Hodes 45%-42% and Republican Bill Binnie ahead of Hodes 46%-41%.
The last PPP poll of the race -- from April -- showed Ayotte with a seven-point lead over Hodes, and Binnie with a five-point lead.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Rep. Paul Hodes (D), who is running for senator in New Hampshire, released a new attack ad today against Republican candidate Kelly Ayotte, saying she "ducked responsibility 44 times" when it came to the Financial Resources Mortgage fraud investigation.
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Sarah Palin posted on her Facebook page today that she's endorsing former New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte in the Republican Senate primary because she is a "Granite State 'mama grizzly' who has broken barriers."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is taking sides in two key open-seat Republican primaries for Senate, Chris Cillizza reports, with an upcoming fundraiser for Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson and former New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte.
Both of these candidates are in primary races. Grayson is being opposed by Rand Paul, an ophthalmologist and son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), with similar small-government libertarian positions. Ayotte is running against businessmen Jim Bender and William Binnie, and former state Board of Education chairman Ovide Lamontagne.
In the Kentucky race, Rand Paul recently had a gaffe in which he failed to fully commit to supporting McConnell for Republican leader -- not the best move to make in McConnell's own state, where he is the biggest name in the state GOP.
Late Update: The Rand Paul campaign has given us this statement from the candidate:
After the primary, I will want to work with Senator McConnell. We will need each other. He and I agree on many issues such as the unconstitutionality of McCain-Feingold.PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (1)
Until then, it would be unfair of me to to ask Grayson to compete on his own merits, all by himself. I think the only way we can be evenly matched is for him to have significant help from DC insiders, PACs, and special interest money.
Even then, it will likely not be enough. 2010 will be the year of the outsider. The Tea Party movement wants reform of government and they are embracing our message of Term Limits, Balanced Budgets, and the Read the Bills Act.
The Republican primary field is getting more crowded in the New Hampshire Senate race, with long-time conservative activist Ovide Lamontagne officially entering the race.
Lamontagne was chairman of the state Board of Education from 1993-1996, and was the Republican nominee for governor in 1996, losing in an open-seat race to Democrat Jeanne Shaheen (now a Senator) by a 57%-40% margin.
Former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte is widely viewed as being the establishment favorite, but in fact it should be a busy primary. In addition to Lamontagne, other candidates include businessmen James Bender and William Binnie, who could both potentially self-finance. Lamontagne has less money coming into the race, but his long-time presence in state politics could make up for it.
Interestingly, Lamontagne explained to the Union-Leader why he won't be self-financing: "The lady of the house won't let it happen. She said that if the market is not there for me to raise the dollars, I ought to reconsider."
PERMALINK | COMMENTS | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)Former New Hampshire Gov. John H. Sununu, who is currently the state GOP chairman, is strongly opposing the possibility of the national GOP endorsing former state Attorney Kelly Ayotte for Senate, the Nashua Telegraph reports.
"I hope the NRSC understands that New Hampshire doesn't really respond well to having candidates designated from outside the state," Sununu told the paper.
Ayotte faces a primary against two businessmen, Ovide Lamontagne and Sean Mahoney. And Sununu is prepared to play referee in the primary, saying it can help the party hold retiring GOP Sen. Judd Gregg's seat: "I'm just going to make sure it's a positive Republican primary with all the candidates focused on the shortcomings of the Democrats."
Late Update:: NRSC spokeswoman Amber Wilkerson Marchand gives us this comment: "The NRSC has not endorsed in this race, nor has an endorsement been sought."
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