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Republican Marco Rubio Cruises To Victory In Florida Senate Race

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 2, 2010, 8:02PM

Marco Rubio

Marco Rubio, who has actually been compared to a young Barack Obama by excited Republicans, has ascended to the U.S. Senate from the state of Florida. Rubio has handily defeated both Gov. Charlie Crist, the independent candidate, and Rep. Kendrick Meek, the Democrat -- a three-way sweep that quite literally is the stuff GOP dreams are made of.

With 649 of 6,881 precincts reporting, Rubio leads Crist and Meek 51.6-28.9-19.5. CNN and Fox News have called the race for Rubio.

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Crist Adviser: He Would Caucus With The Dems In The Senate

Eric Kleefeld | October 29, 2010, 5:58PM

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist

Everyone knows that Republican Marco Rubio is ahead in the polls for the Florida Senate race, helped in part by a split in the anti-GOP vote between independent (and ex-GOPer) Charlie Crist and Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek. Crist has often refused to say for certain which party he would caucus with if he were elected. But as the Wall Street Journal an adviser to Crist says that he would caucus with the Dems if he were to win the election:

That's a big "if." Mr. Crist is trailing Republican candidate Marco Rubio in most polls. But the declaration by Florida trial lawyer John Morgan sheds light on one of the many mysteries in the Bill Clinton-Charlie Crist-Kendrick Meek imbroglio.

"Crist is going to caucus with the Democrats," Mr. Morgan said. "I don't think there's any ifs, ands or buts about it. It would be, in a very tight year, almost like a Democratic pickup in a solid Republican state."

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Kendrick Meek Explains It All: I Never, Ever Agreed To Drop Out (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 29, 2010, 10:14AM

Kendrick Meek did talk to Bill Clinton about dropping his Democratic bid to be the next Senator from Florida, a move that supporters of the plan say would have opened up an opportunity for independent Charlie Crist to catch Republican Marco Rubio's rising star before Election Day. But Meek insists he did not agree to drop out of the race, ever, as Clintonistas told Ben Smith at Politico and many, many other reporters yesterday.

That is the takeaway from Meek's round of TV appearances this morning, and it is the story as Meek is telling it. Team Clinton did not respond to my requests for comment on Meek's take last night.

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Democrat Meek Denies Agreeing To Clinton-Arranged Deal To Drop FL-SEN Bid And Endorse Charlie Crist

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 28, 2010, 8:10PM

Marco Rubio, Charlie Crist, and Kendrick Meek at a Florida Senate debate

An explosive new story from Politico's Ben Smith has led to some serious sniping between the two men trailing Republican Marco Rubio in the Florida Senate race. Smith reports that Bill Clinton orchestrated a deal with Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek (the guy currently running a distant third to Rubio) to drop out of the race and endorse independent candidate Charlie Crist, the guy running second.

The deal could have given Crist a real shot at beating Rubio and, therefore, moderates and Democrats a chance at stopping Rubio's rapid rise in the GOP. Rubio has been a conservative darling of the GOP ever since he pushed Crist out of the Republican primary and into his current independent bid. Most say Rubio will be a major player on the Republican scene if, as polls currently suggest, he cruises to victory Tuesday.

All that could have been different if Clinton's deal had happened. But, as Smith reports it, after first warming to the idea of dropping out -- things went so far that a unity rally was planned for Oct. 26 -- Meek "lost his enthusiasm for the arrangement, spurred in part...by his wife's belief that he could still win the race."

Now comes the sniping. Crist confirms Smith's account of things. Meek says it's not true. That's led to a new war of words between the two men while Rubio continues his march toward certain victory.

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Quinnipiac Poll: Crist Only Down 7 In FL-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | October 28, 2010, 2:31PM

FL Sen candidates Kendrick Meek (D), Charlie Crist (I), and Marco Rubio (R)

A new Quinnipiac poll of the Florida Senate race suggests independent Gov. Charlie Crist is not trailing Republican nominee Marco Rubio by as much as other recent polls would have you believe.

The three-way matchup finds Crist down seven points to Rubio, 42%-35%, with Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek polling at 15%. When Quinnipiac last polled this contest on October 10, the Governor was down a more significant 14 points, 44%-30%, with Meek earning 22%.

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Sunday Shows

The Sunday Show Line-Ups

Eric Kleefeld | October 22, 2010, 2:13PM

Marco Rubio, Charlie Crist, and Kendrick Meek at a Florida Senate debate

Here are the line-ups for the Sunday talk shows this weekend:

• ABC, This Week: DNC Chairman Tim Kaine, Retired Army Gen. Hugh Shelton

• CBS, Face The Nation: Karl Rove, DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen (D-MD).

• CNN, State Of The Union: Florida Senate candidates Marco Rubio (R), Kendrick Meek (D), Charlie Crist (I).

• Fox News Sunday: Senate candidate Pat Toomey (R-PA), Senate candidate Joe Manchin (D-WV).

• NBC, Meet The Press: RNC Chairman Michael Steele.

Charlie Crist

Already Low On Support, Charlie Crist Now Low On Cash

Marc Kilstein | October 21, 2010, 4:02PM

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist

Things are not looking good for independent Gov. Charlie Crist in the Florida Senate race. He trails significantly in the polls and is splitting support with Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek. And now, Crist appears to be running out of money.

According to his latest campaign report, the Senate candidate spent $7.4 million since August 5. As of October 1, this has left him with only $1.39 million on hand.

The TPM Poll Average finds Republican nominee Marco Rubio leading comfortably in the race, earning 45.6% versus Crist's 29.3% and Meek's 21.2%. The candidates are scheduled for two more debates this Sunday and next Tuesday.

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National GOP Says Rubio's Locked It Up In FL-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 14, 2010, 6:44PM

Marco Rubio (R)

It's all over but the shouting in the Florida Senate race, the NRSC says. Despite facing two well-funded nominees in Democrat Kendrick Meek and independent Charlie Crist, the national party is pulling $4 million in ad money out of Florida, a sure sign the party thinks Republican nominee Marco Rubio has things pretty close to locked up.

There's good reason for their confidence: Each new poll of the three-way contest shows Rubio picking up steam against his two opponents. The TPM Poll Average shows Rubio with 44.5%, Crist with 28.8% and Meek with 21.7%.

As you can see from the trendlines, Rubio's got the momentum:

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PPP Poll: Rubio Ahead In FL-SEN -- And Indy Crist Is The Stronger Anti-GOP Candidate

Eric Kleefeld | October 12, 2010, 4:48PM

Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL) and Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL)

The new survey of the Florida Senate race by Public Policy Polling (D) shows Republican Marco Rubio continuing to lead the three-way race. And it also suggests that if Democrats want to defeat Rubio, their best bet would be for the Dem nominee Rep. Kendrick Meek to fall by the wayside, and for people to throw their support behind GOPer-turned-independent Gov. Charlie Crist.

The numbers for the current three-way race: Rubio 44%, Crist 33%, and Meek 21%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.6% margin of error. In the previous PPP poll from late August, Rubio had 37%, Crist 36% and Meek 13%.

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Crist Campaign Says No Discussions With Meek On Endorsement

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 8, 2010, 4:31PM

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist

The Wall Street Journal article suggesting a massive shakeup in the three-way Florida Senate race is looking more and more like unsubstantiated speculation. Yesterday the Journal reported that Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek might be dropping his third-place bid to endorse the second-place independent candidate Charlie Crist.

Meek's campaign told me the story was "nonsense" earlier today, and now it's Team Crist's turn to throw more cold water on the story, which if true would add some excitement -- and competitive spirit -- to a race that polls show is now officially Republican nominee Marco Rubio's to lose.

"Our campaign has had no discussions," Crist spokesperson Danny Kanner told me this afternoon. But Kanner made it pretty clear that Crist wouldn't be opposed to the idea of seeing Meek exit the race.

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Democrat Pushes Back On Report That He May Drop Out Of FL-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 8, 2010, 12:47PM

Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL)

Kendrick Meek, the Democratic nominee and third-place candidate in the Florida Senate race, is pushing back on a report by the Wall Street Journal that he may drop out of the three-way contest and endorse independent candidate Charlie Crist in his fight against Republican nominee Marco Rubio.

"Total nonsense!" a Meek spokesperson told me in an email today. The campaign released a statement saying Meek "laughed out loud" when he heard about the Journal story.

The paper reported that "Republican leaders" in Florida "are fretting that a deal may be in the works" between the Meek and Crist camps, which are currently battling each other for Democratic votes while Rubio surges to a huge lead in public polling. The Journal's Stephen Moore reported a growing "GOP paranoia that Democrats may be getting ready to throw the sure loser Mr. Meek over the side."

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Rasmussen Poll: Rubio Winning 50% Support In FL-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 8, 2010, 12:35PM

Marco Rubio

The new Rasmussen poll of the Florida Senate race gives Republican Marco Rubio a huge lead. And in this poll he doesn't even have to rely on a split Democratic vote between independent (and ex-Republican) Gov. Charlie Crist and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek -- he's actually posting a solid 50% support in his own right.

The numbers: Rubio 50%, Crist 25%, and Meek 19%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from last week, Rubio had 41%, Crist 30%, and Meek 21%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Rubio 43.7%, Crist 28.5%, and Meek 21.6%.

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Polls: Rubio Maintaining Significant Lead In FL-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | October 7, 2010, 2:23PM

Senate candidate Marco Rubio (R-FL)

Republican nominee Marco Rubio was the clear target in last night's primetime debate among the Florida Senate race's three candidates. And according to recent polls, it was for good reason.

A new Mason-Dixon poll out today has the Republican leading big in the fight against independent Gov. Charlie Crist and Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek: Rubio is found ahead of Crist and Meek, respectively, 42%-27%-21%. When Mason-Dixon last took a look at this race on September 22, the Republican earned 40%, versus Crist's 28% and Meek's 23%.

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Crist And Meek Gang Up On Rubio: Three Men And A Debate In FL-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 7, 2010, 10:35AM

Marco Rubio, Charlie Crist, and Kendrick Meek at a Florida Senate debate

The three candidates vying for Florida's open Senate seat met in their first primetime debate last night. According to reports from the event, confirmed frontrunner and Republican nominee Marco Rubio was the target, with Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek and independent candidate Charlie Crist trying to curb Rubio's surging poll momentum.

Their preferred method? Push Rubio as far to the right as they could, thus leaving him out in the cold among the Sunshine State's swingy moderate electorate.

"You want to take us back to Dick Cheney days," Meek sniped at Rubio, according to the Washington Post.

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2010 elections

Tough New Ad In Florida: Charlie Crist's Republican Sound Bytes (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 29, 2010, 9:54AM

Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL)

A new ad in the three-way Senate race in Florida shows independent candidate Charlie Crist for the man he was for years: a prominent name in the Republican Party. That could be enough to sink him.

Coverage of the spot has called it "crushing" and a "death blow" for Crist's campaign. But really the ad is just a collection of Crist's past statements on camera (some less than a month old) espousing his own conservatism and his connection to the GOP.

Those connections are many. Crist, as you'll recall, was a rising star of the GOP in 2008, appearing on John McCain's shortlist for vice-presidential nominees before being heavily courted by the NRSC to run for Florida's open Senate seat. All that came before Marco Rubio and the tea party upended things for Republicans like Crist, eventually pushing Crist to leave the party and run for the Senate as an independent. But even that road was a bumpy one, with Crist first trying to shift hard to the right to take on Rubio before changing direction and running just as hard to the left to pick up Democratic votes as an independent.

All of this happened on camera, of course, meaning the stage was set for Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek's new ad the moment Crist changed parties. Still, the fact that Crist's past is such an obvious liability speaks to the problems he's facing stealing votes from the effective Meek.

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'Fire-Breathing Liberal' Dem Wexler Endorses Crist In FL-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | September 27, 2010, 5:38PM

Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL) and Fmr. Rep. Robert Wexler (D-FL)

Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL), the former Republican now running for Senate as an independent, picked up the support of a big Democratic name yesterday: Former Rep. Robert Wexler (D-FL), the self-proclaimed "fire-breathing liberal."

"There is a special time in which elected officials and people to which people look to have to put country before party and this is one of those times," Wexler told a campaign audience in his old district. "I am here to endorse Gov. Charlie Crist because he has earned it. He has truly earned it."

As reasons for his support, Wexler cited Crist's veto of a bill that would have eliminated teacher tenure -- a key event that sealed Crist's switch from a Republican to independent -- and his veto of another bill that would have required women seeking abortions to get ultra-sounds.

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Charlie Crist Goes Negative (Twice!) In New FL-SEN Ad (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 24, 2010, 9:55AM

From a Charlie Crist ad, "What We Don't Need in Washington"

So this is what a three-way Senate race looks like. Charlie Crist, the independent candidate in the Florida race that pits him against Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek and Republican nominee Marco Rubio is up with a negative spot that tries to tear down both of his rivals at the same time.

"Marco Rubio and Kendrick Meek," the ad's dark voiceover intones. "What we don't need in Washington."

In substance, the ad goes after both men on familiar themes. Rubio is the man who's under investigation for "using a Republican party credit card to pay for personal meals, trips and a family reunion." Meek is the guy who "steered government contracts to an indicted developer who then hired Meek's mother."

Both topics have been heavily discussed in the past. Rubio has denied any wrongdoing regarding the credit card accusations, and Meek just shook off the accusations about the developer that were at the center of Jeff Greene's primary campaign against him.

Of Crist's new ad, Meek says the negative attacks will hurt Crist in his quest to win Democratic votes in November. Recent polls have suggested that strategy is falling flat. "The governor is using the most cynical and desperate Republican attacks to stop the bleeding," Meek's campaign said in a press release today.

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2010 elections

Marcomentum: Republican Rubio Cruising In Florida Senate Polls

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 21, 2010, 8:44AM

Marco Rubio (R)

That Katie-bar-the-door, hold-on-to-your-butts, anything-could-happen-and-probably-will three-way Senate race down in Florida is turning out to be about as predictable as it looked like it was going to be back during primary season: once again, according to a slew of recent polls, the race is being defined by Marco Rubio's momentum.

It wasn't supposed to be this way. The Republican nominee for Senate was supposed to be locked in an epic struggle with independent candidate Charlie Crist and Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek. It was to be the Octagon of politics this year -- three men enter, one man leaves! -- the moment that Crist's political savvy and Meek's ability to excite the Democratic base gave Rubio a run for his considerable political fortunes.

Oh well. It was fun while it lasted. To be sure, nothing is decided yet. Crist just went up with his first negative ad of the general election and he still has plenty of money kicking around to make it tough for the Republican as Election Day approaches. But as Rubio has shored up Republican votes and Meek has shown that the statewide Democratic organizing skills he showed off in the primary are no fluke, Crist is running out of runway to really get his independent bid off the ground.

Polls show Crist is running out of time, too. With each passing day, it seems, Rubio's lead is increasing, meaning that Crist (and Meek, too, while we're at it) needs to slow the popular and handsome Republican's roll -- and fast. If last Friday's debate is any indication of how Rubio's rivals are doing when it comes to tearing him down, it's gonna be an uneventful trip to November.

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Rubio Ad Blasts 'Politicians Who Will Say Or Do Anything' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | September 20, 2010, 6:36PM

Former State House Speaker Marco Rubio (R-FL)

Marco Rubio has a new ad in the Florida Senate race. On the surface it seems like a boilerplate ad calling for change in Washington -- but one particular line seems to send a clear message.

"Washington isn't just broke, it's broken. But it won't get better if we keep electing politicians who will say or do anything just to hold office," says Rubio. "Government is out of touch. Spending is out of control. Foreign debt threatens our economic and national security. And typical politicians just don't get it."

Hmm, "politicians who will say or do anything." Could Rubio -- who is running against a governor who was a Republican but switched to independent for the general election -- be referring to anyone in particular?

The TPM Poll Average gives Rubio the lead with 39.1%, followed by Crist at 30.6%, and Democrat Kendrick Meek with 21.2%.

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More Trouble For Crist: He's Listed Way, Way Down On The Ballot

Eric Kleefeld | September 16, 2010, 11:04AM

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist

Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL), who left the Republican Party to run for Senate as an independent, is now running into one of many complications of his new independent status. As the St. Petersburg Times reports, Crist will be listed almost at the very bottom of the ballot, in the ninth position out of ten.

Under state law, Republican Marco Rubio will be listed first as the candidate of the party currently holding the governor's mansion, followed by Democrat Kendrick Meek, then various minor parties candidates, and then independents in the order in which they filed their papers. As the paper reports, Crist already seems to be getting tripped up by this development -- even he's confused about where he'll be listed.

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Polls: Rubio Leads Big In FL-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | September 15, 2010, 4:59PM

Senate candidate Marco Rubio (R-FL)

Two new polls of the Florida Senate race out today show Republican nominee Marco Rubio with a significant lead over independent Gov. Charlie Crist and Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek.

On the heels of a Fox News poll that showed Rubio with a huge lead, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll and Rasmussen poll also show Rubio way out in front. The Reuters/Ipsos poll has Rubio at 40%, Crist at 26%, and Meek at 21%. The previous Ipsos poll, from August 10, showed Crist leading Rubio and Meek 33%-29%-17%. Tellingly, when the new Ipsos survey asked for respondents' preferential candidate if Meek was not in the race, the Republican only earned a slight 46%-45% advantage over Crist.

Today's Rasmussen poll has Rubio leading 41%-30%-23%. Not much change from an August 25 Rasmussen poll that found Rubio leading the contest 40% to Crist's 30% and Meek's 21%.

The latest Reuters/Ipsos survey is among likely voters and has a margin of error of ±4.6 percentage points. Rasmussen's numbers have a margin of error of ±4.0. The TPM Poll Average of the contest shows Rubio leading 39.1% to Crist's 30.6% and Meek's 21.2%.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

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Fox News Poll: Rubio Way Ahead In FL-SEN Race

Eric Kleefeld | September 14, 2010, 2:25PM

Senate candidate Marco Rubio (R-FL)

The new Fox News poll of the Florida Senate race has very good news for Republican Marco Rubio, with him holding a commanding lead over independent Gov. Charlie Crist and Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek.

The numbers: Rubio 43%, Crist 27%, and Meek 21%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error. There is no prior Fox News poll of this race -- but this one was conducted through a Rasmussen offshoot, Pulse Opinion Research, and the previous Rasmussen poll from late August had Rubio ahead by 40%-30%-21%.

The poll's internals show the worst-case scenario for Dems of Meek and the ex-Republican Crist splitting the Dem vote, with Meek ahead of Crist 46%-39% with that demographic, plus 11% for Rubio. Among Republicans, Rubio is ahead of Crist and Meek by 74%-13%-4% -- meaning that Crist is not holding on to much of his old Republican base, if these numbers are accurate -- and among independents Rubio leads Crist and Meek by 39%-33%-9%.

The TPM Poll Average puts Rubio ahead of Crist and Meek by 38.1%-32.1%-20.3%.

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Charlie Crist Reaches Out To Indys With New TV Spots (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 13, 2010, 2:30PM

Charlie Crist for US Senate TV Ad: "Line in the Sand"

Charlie Crist is up with two new TV spots intended to help Florida voters understand his transition from Republican to independent in Florida's strange three-way Senate race. The message in the ads is potentially a strong one for the swingy Sunshine State electorate: I'm an independent, so I can do what I want, Crist explains. Partisan lines don't define me.

But the delivery...well, judge for yourself. If you want some political trivia questions to ask yourself while you watch, try these: is the sunny -- and oil-free -- beach setting for these ads a veiled reference to Crist's roundly praised handling of the Florida part of the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico? Does the fact that Crist ends the second ad standing on the "Republican" side of the line mean he wouldn't caucus with Democrats? Does defending the stimulus in the first spot mean he's definitely going to caucus with the Democrats? Is that really Crist drawing a line in the sand in the second spot or did they use a stunt stick?

The TPM Poll Average for the three-way Senate race in Florida shows Republican nominee Marco Rubio with 36.8% of the vote, Crist with 33.4% and Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek with 19.9%.

Watch Crist's new ads:

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2010 elections

TPM's Top 10 Senate Races To Watch

Brian Beutler | September 13, 2010, 8:35AM

Kentucky Senate candidates Jack Conway and Rand Paul talk with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

Campaign season doesn't really heat up until September ... which means now. That means all the scandals and ads and ups and downs you've heard and read about in the last several months were just stage-setters. Most voters really begin paying attention now.

It's looking like a tough year for Senate Democrats, almost of whom are polling below 50 percent. Several weeks ago, many Republicans -- including NRSC Chair John Cornyn -- thought Republicans wouldn't be able to retake the Senate. Today, it's a distinct possibility. There are a number of critical races, but you should really keep an eye on these 10.

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Poll: Rubio Has Big Lead In FL-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 9, 2010, 2:01PM

Senate candidate Marco Rubio (R-FL)

Marco Rubio, the Republican nominee for Senate in Florida, has a commanding lead over his two opponents according to a new poll of the contest out today.

Sunshine State News, a conservative-leaning Florida news site, surveyed 1,016 likely voters Sept. 1-7 and found Rubio with a double digit lead over Gov. Charlie Crist (I) and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D). The poll shows Rubio drawing 43% of the vote in the three-way contest, with Crist a distant second with 29%. Meek is close to him with 23% of the vote. The poll has a margin of error of around 3%.

Past polling has shown the race to be much closer than what SSN's poll reports. In the TPM Poll Average, Rubio draws 36.8% of the vote, Crist 33.4% and Meek 19.9%.

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CNN/Time Poll: Rubio Leads 3-Way FL-SEN Race While Meek's Fortunes Rise

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 8, 2010, 7:00PM

FL Sen candidates Kendrick Meek (D), Charlie Crist (I), and Marco Rubio (R)

Marco Rubio, the Republican nominee for Senate in Florida, is leading the state's strange three-way race to fill an open Senate seat. According to a new CNN/Time poll of the race -- which pits Rubio against Democrat Kendrick Meek and independent Charlie Crist -- Rubio leads Crist 36-34. Meek comes in third with 24% of the vote.

Past polling has shown Crist and Rubio swapping leads in the contest while Meek has generally run well behind the two. The 24% he pulls in the new CNN/Time poll is one of the highest totals Meek has drawn in a public poll for months, coming on the heels of Meek's strong win in the Democratic primary and subsequent boost in media attention and name ID. Meek has been targeting Crist heavily in the past couple weeks, joining with Rubio in multiple attacks calling the independent candidate a hypocrite. It looks like his strategy has been working -- most likely to Crist's detriment.

The TPM Poll Average shows Rubio with 35.5% of the vote, Crist with 34.3% and Meek with 19.3%.

The CNN/Time survey of 899 registered voters was conducted Sept. 2-7. The margin of error is 3.5%.

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Crist, Meek Roll Out New Ads In FL-SEN Race (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | September 7, 2010, 10:32AM

Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL) for US Senate TV Ad: "Best of Both"

The two non-Republican candidates in the Florida Senate race have some new ads in this wild and wacky election, with some amusing new spots from independent Gov. Charlie Crist and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek.

In the Crist ad, the ex-Republican walks alongside some large physical letters, a bit less than waist-high, that spell out "DEMOCRATS" in blue and "REPUBLICANS" in red. Crist talks about how as an independent he will be able to focus on common goals and take the best ideas of both sides -- as he rearranges the letters into alternating blue and red, to spell out "AMERICANS."

"Because at the end of the day, there's only one party I work for," says Crist.

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Florida State Senate Dem Leader Endorses Indy Charlie Crist For Senate

Eric Kleefeld | September 3, 2010, 3:48PM

Florida state Senate Minority Leader Al Lawson (D) and Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL)

Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL), the ex-Republican who left his former party to run for Senate as an independent, has received the endorsement of a top-ranking Florida Democrat: State Senate Minority Leader Al Lawson.

"Florida desperately needs an independent senator in Washington who will fight for good jobs and economic opportunity, a quality education for every child, and Social Security for all of our seniors regardless of what the political party bosses want," Lawson said in a statement. "Charlie Crist will be exactly that Senator, and I am proud to endorse his candidacy."

This is certainly a big get for Crist, on multiple levels. Obviously, snagging the support of a top state Democrat is as clear a sign as he needs for Dem voters that it's admissible to vote for him. It also feeds into the widely held narrative -- never confirmed or denied by Crist -- that he would caucus as a Democrat in Washington.

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Jeff Greene

Billionaire FL Dem Loser Blames And Sues Media For Loss

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 1, 2010, 11:16AM

Jeff Greene

Not news: a politician blames the media for his epic downfall and convincing defeat. News: the politician takes the media to court and asks for $500 million in damages.

That's the man-bites-dog story playing out in Florida today, where Jeff Greene -- the billionaire investor who just got crushed by Kendrick Meek in the Democratic primary for Senate -- is filing suit against two state papers for, he says, tanking the Senate campaign he spent tens of millions from his personal fortune on.

The New York Times reports that Greene is filing a libel suit against the St. Petersburg Times and the Miami Herald, claiming that the papers' coverage of his infamous yacht and his even more infamous path to super-wealth were false and so damaging as to cost him the Democratic nomination.

As the Times reports, Greene's suit "is a rare step for a political figure." Many losing candidates come to hate the media, but few go so far as to take it to court.

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Meek Radio Ad: 'Don't Be Fooled,' Crist Is A Republican (AUDIO)

Eric Kleefeld | September 1, 2010, 11:05AM

Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL) and Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL)

Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL), the Democratic nominee in the Florida Senate race, has a new radio ad out attacking independent Gov. Charlie Crist -- and seeking to undermine any feeling among Dem voters that Crist could end up caucusing with the Democrats.

The ad declares that Crist's "home" is with the GOP, and features audio of various statements that Crist made when he was a Republican. Examples include, "I'm a Jeb Bush Republican," "I was impressed at Governor Palin being picked," and "I'm about as conservative as you can get."

"Now Charlie Crist is running for Senate as an independent -- while he still supports extending the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy," says the announcer. "Don't be fooled. If Charlie Crist gets to Washington, his heart will lead him right back where he belongs."

The TPM Poll Average gives Republican Marco Rubio a narrow lead with 35.2%, followed by Crist at 34.7% -- and Meek way behind for now with 17.8%.

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Sunday Shows

The Sunday Show Line-Ups

Eric Kleefeld | August 27, 2010, 4:41PM

Republican candidate for US Senate in Alaska Joe Miller

Here are the line-ups for the Sunday talk shows this weekend:

• ABC, This Week: Secretary of Education Arne Duncan, American Federation of Teachers President Randi Weingarten, D.C. Public Schools Chancellor Michelle Rhee.

• CBS, Face The Nation: Senate candidate Joe Miller (R-AK), Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL), Gov. Haley Barbour (R-MS), Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL).

• CNN, State Of The Union: Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Shaun Donovan, Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL), Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL).

• Fox News Sunday: Glenn Beck.

• NBC, Meet The Press: Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA), New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu (D), Brad Pitt.

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Rasmussen Poll: Rubio's Lead Grows To Double-Digits In Florida

Evan McMorris-Santoro | August 26, 2010, 12:24PM

Marco Rubio

Looks like the biggest winner of the Senate primary season in Florida could be Marco Rubio. Now that the Senate field is set, Rubio, the Republican nominee, is in the driver's seat, according to a new poll from Rasmussen. The survey of 750 likely voters taken the day after the August 24 primary shows Rubio with 40% of the vote, independent Charlie Crist with 30% and Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek with 21%.

The last Rasmussen poll of the race -- taken on Aug. 9 in the midst of the heated Democratic primary -- showed Rubio leading Crist 38-33 with Meek drawing 21% of the vote. The new poll shows Rubio has doubled his lead over Crist.

Rubio also now leads the TPM Poll Average, but by a much, much smaller margin. Rubio leads Crist 35.2-34.7, with Meek drawing 17.8.

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Does Meek's Primary Win Hurt Crist -- And Help Rubio?

Eric Kleefeld | August 25, 2010, 9:35AM

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist and Rep. Kendrick Meek

It's possible that Kendrick Meek's win in the Florida Democratic Senate primary could be good news for Republican Marco Rubio. And this is not because of any deficiencies on Meek's part. Instead, it's the fact that he's a much better Dem candidate than his primary rival, businessman Jeff Greene, and could end up winning too many Democratic votes and splitting the anti-Rubio vote with the other big player in the race, the ex-Republican and now independent Gov. Charlie Crist.

Keep in mind that it is widely believed that Crist would potentially caucus with the Democrats if he won the Senate race. As a result, he has soaked up a lot of Democratic support in many polls throughout the state -- not to mention the cash of Dem fundraisers -- effectively overshadowing both Meek and Greene as the true opponent to Rubio. But of course, in order to caucus with the Senate Dems, Crist would have to get elected to the Senate first, and would have to hold onto his independent and Republican voters while simultaneously grabbing a lot of the Dems. And it seems intuitive that Meek, a Congressman who has supported Obama's agenda in Congress, would be more appealing to Dem voters than Greene, the hard-partying businessman who previously ran for Congress as a Republican in the 1980s.

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2010 elections

AP: Kendrick Meek Thumps Jeff Greene In Dems' Florida Senate Primary

Evan McMorris-Santoro | August 24, 2010, 8:20PM

Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL)

Just when everyone thought he was out, Rep. Kendrick Meek pulled himself back in. After a brutal and expensive surprise primary challenge from billionaire investor Jeff Greene, the AP is reporting that Meek has won the prize he thought he had in his grasp months ago: the Democratic nomination for Senate in Florida.

With 38% of precincts reporting, Meek is leading Greene 55-32. Also-ran former Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre has 6% of the vote. Meek is now set to take the stage in a general election fight where, essentially, two men are vying for the Democratic vote -- Meek and Gov. Charlie Crist, who has run hard for Democratic support since abandoning the GOP primary against Marco Rubio.

Before we turn our attention to uphill climb Meek now faces against Crist and Rubio, we should take a moment to note the uphill climb he just completed. Meek was all but written off after Greene's barrage of negative advertising left the relatively unknown Meek down in the polls. But Meek battled back, taking on Greene with tough rhetoric in debates and pulling in help from powerful friends like President Clinton and President Obama. He ran negative ads of his own and likely was overjoyed as media attention quickly deflated the regular-guy image the flamboyant Greene tried to create for himself. Just as he did early in the primary cycle -- when his fundraising prowess cleared the field early -- Meek has shown that he is ready and willing to fight for the nomination.

Unfortunately for him, Meek just got what he's been wishing for.

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FL-SEN

Today Is Florida Primary Day

Evan McMorris-Santoro | August 24, 2010, 10:35AM

FL Republican Gov. candidates Bill McCollum and Rick Scott.

This is it, folks -- the day when we learn which of the candidates in the hotly-contested primaries in Florida will start the general election fight behind. That's right. Essentially what they're fighting for today in the Democratic Senate primary and the Republican gubernatorial fight in Florida is who gets to start the race to November running behind the frontrunner.

In the gubernatorial fight, which pits wealthy former hospital executive Rick Scott against Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum, the nasty Republican primary has left likely Democratic nominee and state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink leading general election polls. Whichever Republican wins tonight will have to take time to rebuild excitement among voters who appear to have been turned off by the nasty Republican primary.

As for Scott and McCollum, polls show its anybody's game tonight -- though McCollum has had the momentum in the closing days of the contest. The TPM Poll Average for the race shows McCollum ahead 42.1-38.2.

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FL-SEN

Weekend Polls Show Kendrick Meek Riding High

Evan McMorris-Santoro | August 23, 2010, 9:52AM

Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL)

A trio of new polls from the weekend show Rep. Kendrick Meek with the wind at his back heading into tomorrow's Democratic primary for Senate in Florida. The numbers show that Meek has shaken off the negative hits billionaire investor Jeff Greene has thrown his way, despite the huge amount of money Greene has poured into the race with the goal of turning Democratic voters off to the four-term Congressman.

All three polls show Meek ahead by double digits. A Mason-Dixon poll conducted last week shows Meek up 12, 42-30. A new Qunnipiac poll from the weekend shows him ahead by 10, and a PPP(D) poll taken during the same period shows Meek ahead 51-27.

As it stands less than 24 hours before the primary vote, TPM Poll Average shows Meek leading a three-way race with Greene and former Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre by a comfortable margin. The average shows Meek with 38.8% of the vote, Greene with 27.7% and Ferre with 3.7%.

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2010 elections

Rich Guys Finish Last? Big Spending Could Still Mean Big Failure In Florida Tuesday

Evan McMorris-Santoro | August 23, 2010, 9:13AM

FL Gov. candidate Rick Scott (R) and FL Sen. candidate Jeff Greene (D)

How much does it cost to buy your way out of your past? In Florida, it looks like the answer is well north of $20 million to $30 million. That's at least how much the two rich guys trying to buy their way into the voter's hearts in the Sunshine State -- Democratic Senate candidate Jeff Greene and Republican gubernatorial candidate Rick Scott -- have spent on their primary campaigns, respectively. And with a number of recent polls showing that each could be in trouble in the primaries they turned upside-down with their massive personal spending, it's starting to look like Tuesday could be the day rich guys finish last.

Each man brings a lot of personal baggage to his candidacy. Scott is the disgraced former executive of a hospital chain that was slapped with more than $1 billion in fines for defrauding the federal government on his watch. Greene has had to run away from past personal associations with such luminaries as Mike Tyson, Heidi Fleiss and Lindsay Lohan. And that was before he had to explain his way out of becoming a billionaire by betting the mortgage bubble would burst.

Greene and Scott both seemed to think that spending big and going negative on their establishment opponents would bring them political fortunes as big as the ones they keep at the bank (or, more likely, a series of banks and complex investment schemes that no lowly Internet reporter could imagine in his wildest dreams). The game plan was simple: use your lack of name ID to run as an "outsider," and use your overflowing war chest to trash your establishment opponent on TV.

The plan could still work. Greene and Scott could each still win. But there's been a clear shift in the polls, and with one day before primary voters go to the polls in Florida, it's looking more and more like a tough sell for both men.

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FL-SEN

Quinnipiac Poll: Crist Still Ahead In FL-SEN Race

Eric Kleefeld | August 19, 2010, 9:27AM

Governor Charlie Crist (I-FL)

The new Quinnipiac poll of the Florida Senate race shows independent Gov. Charlie Crist continuing to lead Republican Marco Rubio -- and the ex-GOPer Crist is picking up more Democratic voters than the actual Dem candidates.

The poll has Crist leading Rubio by 39%-32%, with Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek far behind at 16%. With businessman Jeff Greene as the Dem nominee, Crist leads Rubio Greene by 40%-32%-15%. The survey of registered voters has a ±3% margin of error. In the previous Quinnipiac poll from three weeks ago, Crist led Rubio and Meek by 39%-33%-13%, and he led Rubio and Greene by 37%-32%-17%.

From the pollster's analysis: "Crist is getting more support from Democrats than either Greene or Meek. The key for Crist will be whether he can hold this many Democrats once the party's nomination is settled and keep his half of the independent voters."

The TPM Poll Average has Crist leading Rubio and Meek by 36.0%-33.8%-16.8%, and Crist leading Rubio and Greene by 38.0%-33.9%-15.9%.

The Florida primary is August 24.

FL-SEN

Poll: McCollum And Meek Lead Self-Funding Challengers In Florida

Evan McMorris-Santoro | August 18, 2010, 9:15AM

Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL)

A new Qunnipiac poll shows the wealthy self-funding candidates who had pulled ahead in the Florida primaries for governor and U.S. Senate may be seeing their time in the spotlight coming to an end.

According to the new numbers, the establishment choices in the GOP gubernatorial primary and the Democratic primary for Senate are on top, while the wealthy men who have spent millions to defeat them now find themselves in second place. In the Senate race, Rep. Kendrick Meek is ahead of billionaire investor Jeff Greene 35-28, according to the Q poll. In the Republican gubernatorial fight, state attorney general Bill McCollum now leads former hospital executive Rick Scott 44-35.

Those numbers mark big shifts from the last Quinnipiac poll from late July, when Greene led Meek 33-23, and Scott led McCollum 43-32.

With just days to go before the August 24 primary elections, the poll suggests the establishment picks in the two vicious primary battles may finally be able to relax a bit after weeks of running behind their upstart challengers. But as the pollster writes in the Quinnipiac release today, there's still plenty of mystery left in the contests, despite the new numbers.

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Muslims

How New York's 'Ground Zero Mosque' Fell Into Florida's Political Spotlight

Evan McMorris-Santoro | August 16, 2010, 4:29PM

Marco Rubio

According to Google, the proposed Islamic community center in lower Manhattan is 1,275 miles away from downtown Miami, Florida. But that doesn't mean the proposed Cordoba House that's likely to be constructed blocks away from the former site of the Twin Towers hasn't become a big issue in Florida politics.

Republican Senate candidate Marco Rubio -- already an ardent supporter of all things conservative (if you don't count his against-it-before-I-was-kind-of-for-it stance on Arizona's immigration law) -- is taking a firm stand with the rest of his party by vocally opposing the Cordoba House project.

"It is divisive and disrespectful to build a mosque next to the site where 3,000 innocent people were murdered at the hands of Islamic extremism," Rubio said in a statement Saturday.

Both men running for the GOP's gubernatorial nomination say basically the same thing. Attorney General Bill McCollum says he'd be OK with a Muslim construction project "farther away" from the Ground Zero site and former hospital exec Rick Scott is already running a TV ad attacking "Obama's Mosque."

So that's that. Anti-mosque Republicans can stand by their men in the Sunshine State.

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