KY-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Rand Paul Leads By 11 In KY-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 30, 2010, 2:07PM

KY Sen. candidate Rand Paul (R)

Rand Paul has a double-digit lead in the Kentucky Senate race, according to a new poll from Rasmussen out today. The poll of likely voters shows Paul, the Republican nominee, leading Democratic nominee Jack Conway by a margin of 49-38.

Rasmussen's last poll in Kentucky, conducted Sept. 7, showed Paul with a larger 15-point lead. That poll showed Paul ahead 54-39. The dip in support for Paul matches that seen in all other polling of the race lately, which has shown Conway gaining ground. The poll shows that Paul's self-professed tea party candidacy may be causing some problems for the Republican, despite the large lead.

"Paul has the backing of 88% of Tea Party members and 29% of non-members," the pollster reports. "Fifty-eight percent of those who say they are not part of the movement support Conway."

The TPM Poll Average shows Paul ahead 47.4-41.9

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KY-SEN

Rand Paul Freaks Out Old People In New Conway Spot (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 28, 2010, 5:40PM

US Sen. candidate Rand Paul (R-KY)

Rand Paul will make your grandma pay $2,000 to get Medicare treatments, according to a new TV ad from Paul's rival in the Kentucky Senate race, Democratic nominee Jack Conway. Using a new video from the deep trove of potential oppo research Paul has left in his wake, the Conway camp has put together a tough ad that -- literally -- shows Paul creeping out very nice old ladies.

Back in 2009, Paul told a group of "conservative leaders in Lexington" (Conway's camp isn't being/can't be more specific) that if he had his druthers, Medicare coverage would come with a $2,000 deductible to help reduce the cost of the program.

"We have to figure out how to get to more of a market-based system," Paul says in the 2009 appearance, which was captured on video and sent over by Conway's team. "The real answer to Medicare would be a $2,000 deductible -- but try selling that one in an election year."

Needless to say, the prospect of forking over $2,000 to get treatment covered by Medicare would likely be controversial one among seniors groups. Conway's ad predicts the possible outcome of Paul's Medicare plan with a series of upset old people speaking directly to camera.

"I can't afford that," says one woman.

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KY-SEN

Poll: Rand Paul Leads By Just Two In KY-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 27, 2010, 10:31AM

Rand Paul (R)

The closely-watched race for Senate in Kentucky is now "a statistical dead heat," according to a new poll sponsored by one of the the state's largest papers. The Bluegrass Poll was conducted by automated phone call pollster SurveyUSA for the Louisville Courier-Journal last week and shows Republican nominee Rand Paul leading Democratic nominee Jack Conway 49-47.

The last Bluegrass Poll, conducted in late August showed Paul ahead 55-40. In the ensuing weeks, the Courier-Journal reports, Conway has built momentum among women and those wary of Paul's extreme conservative views.

"The poll shows that Conway, the state's attorney general, is now appealing to voters who say they are neutral on the tea party -- Paul's base of support," the paper reports. "And Conway is building a significant lead among women, who earlier were almost evenly split between the two candidates."

As the paper reports, Paul's miniscule lead in the new poll "is well within the poll's 4 percentage point margin of error," making the result basically a tie.

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KY-SEN

Dem-Sponsored Poll: Jack Conway Down Only 3 To Rand Paul In KY-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | September 24, 2010, 12:18PM

Kentucky Democratic Senate nominee Jack Conway

According to a new poll of the Kentucky Senate race commissioned by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, Democratic nominee Jack Conway is nipping at the heels of Republican nominee Rand Paul, down only 45%-42%.

The latest survey, conducted by Democratic-pollster Benenson Strategy Group, finds the race's point-spread within the poll's ±3.7% margin of error. In an early-September Conway internal poll, the firm found the Democrat behind two, 47%-45%. Recent polls have not been as friendly to Conway as these internals -- a September 12 PPP poll saw Paul on top 49%-42% and a Rasmussen poll earlier this month produced a 15-point advantage for the Republican.

The TPM Poll Average shows Paul ahead of Conway 46.9%-41.7%.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

KY-SEN

Rand Paul's Long History Of Hitler Fear-Mongering (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 22, 2010, 6:20PM

Rand Paul (R) with Adolf Hitler (inset)

Rand Paul, Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky and all-around tea party uber-star, has a penchant for predicting the demise of the United States government and its replacement. And often, he's used the failure of the Weimar Republic and the rise of Adolf Hitler's fascist regime as an example to illustrate his point. It's not that Paul thinks any particular politician alive today is Hitler -- or even Hitler-like -- but Paul's reasonably sure that unless something changes soon, America's financial desperation will put some sort of new Hitler-like regime just around the bend.

Earlier today, Paul's Hitler-is-coming meme grabbed headlines when it made an appearance in GQ's fat new profile of Paul and his campaign in Kentucky (you might remember the GQ piece for the pre-release excerpt which led to the truly amazing Aqua Buddha mini-scandal.)

I emailed the Paul campaign to ask about Paul's theory that an American Hitler was on the way -- I have yet to hear back. It was the same story the last time we highlighted Paul's Hitler warnings, in May. Back then, we only had one.

That's no longer the case. Trusty TPM intern Jon Terbush and I spent the afternoon combing through old Paul public appearances to find other references to Hitler and his potential re-emergence on the American political scene. We found quite a few.

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American Crossroads

Rove-Backed Group Pushing Out More Ads In Senate Races (VIDEOS)

Eric Kleefeld | September 22, 2010, 3:04PM

Ad from American Crossroads, "Not My Job"

American Crossroads, the Karl Rove-backed group that is spending heavily on ads for this year's Senate races, has been rolling out a whole bunch of ads in some top races.

An ad against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) reprises a theme from an earlier Crossroads ad, hammering Reid for his past remarks on the Senate floor about how "only" 36,000 jobs had been lost in a previous month, which was "really good."

Then the announcer uses a clever turn of phrase: "Harry Reid. Extremely out of touch with Nevada." Look at that as a clear effort to counter Reid's ads, which have derided Republican nominee Sharron Angle as being "extreme."

The TPM Poll Average puts Reid ahead by 47.2%-44.0%.

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KY-SEN

Rand Paul Suggests Economic Decline Could Lead To A New Hitler

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 22, 2010, 2:02PM

KY Sen. candidate Rand Paul (R)

More goodness from Jason Zengerle's tasty profile of Rand Paul in GQ: The Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky just wants you to know that, with the way things are going these days, a new Hitler could be in America's future at any moment.

It's probably a good idea to keep an eye out for that, folks.

Here's the long quote from Paul that Zengerle snagged on the trail with the candidate:

"In 1923, when they destroyed the currency, they elected Hitler. And so they elected somebody who vilified one group of people, but he promised them, 'I will give you security if you give me your liberty,' and they voted him in. And that's not to mean that anybody around is Hitler, but it's to mean that you don't want chaos in your country. And we could have chaos, not just because of the Democrats, but because the Democrats and the Republicans have all been spending us into oblivion. And having a massive debt runs the risk of chaos at some point. Not tomorrow, maybe not next week--I mean, I can't even predict the stock market six months from now. But I think that a country is in danger that spends beyond its means and lives beyond its means. And I don't ever say it started with President Obama. I think it started long ago."

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KY-SEN

GQ: Mitch McConnell Demanded Rand Paul's Support During Primary

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 22, 2010, 12:59PM

KY-SEN candidate Rand Paul

In the midst of the contentious Kentucky Republican primary for Senate that challenged -- and ultimately humiliated -- Mitch McConnell, the GOP leader in the Senate demanded Rand Paul promise to kiss his ring if he ever made it to Washington, according to a new story in GQ. Paul refused, and then won the nomination, setting up a dynamic that has left McConnell guessing about what Paul might do next.

From Jason Zengerle's massive profile of Paul in the October issue of GQ:

During the primary, McConnell's only meeting with Paul took place in a hangar at the Louisville airport. According to a person familiar with the conversation, McConnell pressed Paul to pledge to vote for him for Republican leader--something Paul refused to do. (Billy Piper, McConnell's chief of staff, denies that his boss sought Paul's commitment.) All these months later, Paul still won't make a firm pledge.

According to Zengerle, Paul's public ambivalence over backing McConnell for leader is all part of a plan. "The whole question of 'Will Rand vote for McConnell for leader?' is a power play," one "Paul ally" tells GQ. "If Mitch is a little bit on edge, so much the better. He should be."

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2010 elections

Release The Chamber: Biz Group Goes On The Air In Key Senate Races (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 21, 2010, 1:29PM

U.S. Chamber of Commerce CEO Tom Donohue

The U.S. Chamber Of Commerce is dropping a flurry of TV ads in key Senate races across the country as we step into the final weeks of 2010 election season. The group has pledged $75 million in spending this cycle -- and if the first $2 million is any judge, most of that money is going to help Republicans.

Via the AP:

[The Chamber] has the biggest footprint, spending $1 million in Florida against Gov. Charlie Crist, who is running for the Senate as an independent. The chamber has endorsed the Republican candidate, Marco Rubio. The chamber is spending $500,000 in Kentucky against Democrat Jack Conway. The chamber this week endorsed Republican Rand Paul, and it is spending about $300,000 in New Hampshire against Senate Democratic candidate Paul Hodes and $250,000 in Colorado against Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet.

Not all of the Chamber's support is going to the GOP however. Just today, the Chamber announced it's backing Gov. Joe Manchin (D-WV) in the special election to fill the late Robert Byrd's Senate seat. No word yet on whether the group will buy pro-Manchin ads, but some recent polling shows the governor may need the help.

Here now are a sample of the Chamber's all-negative, all pro-GOP TV ads up across the country at the moment:

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KY-SEN

Tea Party Superstar Rand Paul Leaves Wiggle Room On Tax Cuts (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 20, 2010, 6:36PM

Kentucky Senate Candidate Rand Paul (R)

Rand Paul, the tea partieriest of them all, has suggested that he would vote for a bill in the Senate that didn't extend each and every single one of the Bush tax cuts. Surely the age of "dogs and cats living together" we were warned about in Ghostbusters can't be far away, folks.

Asked today on Fox News about House Minority Leader John Boehner's recent reveal that Republicans might -- if given no other choice -- vote in favor of President Obama's plan to extend all the Bush cuts save those for the wealthiest Americans, Paul chided Boehner for giving away the store, but didn't say he rejected Boehner's comments out of hand.

"I haven't thought through exactly what happens if you get a choice you don't want," Paul said. Paul agreed that his position right now would be "everything or nothing," but suggested that view could change.

"At least right now," Paul said when Fox News host Neil Cavuto said Paul was one of those Republicans willing to see middle class taxes rise if it meant voting for a bill that wouldn't extend the Bush cuts for the wealthy. "If you're talking about your initial bargaining point, you go for what you think is best."

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KY-SEN

Kos Poll: Rand Paul Leads By Seven In Kentucky

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 14, 2010, 6:29PM

Kentucky Democratic Senate nominee Jack Conway

DailyKos is back in the polling business, having dropped the disgraced Research 2000 in favor of the team at PPP (D). And one of the new partnership's first polls shows the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky, Jack Conway, struggling in the race against Republican Rand Paul.

The Kos/PPP survey of 959 likely voters in the Bluegrass State shows Paul leading 49-42. The poll has a 3.2% margin of error. Other recent polls have been all over the map, with some showing Paul with a huge lead and others showing the race essentially tied. The TPM Poll Average shows Paul ahead 47.2-41.5.

According to the Kos analysis of the new poll, internals show a tough road for Conway moving forward. Democrats say their numbers show things to be tight, and say the race is still anyone's to win.

"The Democrats' problem in Kentucky isn't the enthusiasm gap -- Rand Paul took care of that for us," pollster Tom Jensen writes at Kos. " It's because after showing some wariness earlier in the summer, when we had the race tied, the McCain voters have pretty much all gone home to Paul. In late June he was getting 70% of their votes and now for all his missteps he's getting 80% of their votes. In a state that went as strongly Republican last time as Kentucky Conway is going to have to be able to pick off more of their voters than that to have a path to victory."

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KY-SEN

Sarah Palin Coming To Kentucky To Stump For Rand Paul

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 13, 2010, 1:33PM

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and candidate for U.S. Senate Rand Paul

Sarah Palin is coming to Kentucky to help Rand Paul. The original Mama Grizzly plans to help Paul raise some cash and, no doubt, shore up his support among the tea party base that helped him win the Republican nomination for Senate in Kentucky.

The pair will appear together at a "lunchtime fundraiser at a Louisville hotel Thursday." The date happens to be "the same day the former Alaska governor is to speak at a gospel music convention in town," according to the AP.

Polls in the Kentucky Senate race have been erratic lately, with some showing Paul with a huge lead and others showing Democratic nominee Jack Conway tied with him. The TPM Poll Average shows Paul leading the contest 47.1-41.4 .

2010 elections

TPM's Top 10 Senate Races To Watch

Brian Beutler | September 13, 2010, 8:35AM

Kentucky Senate candidates Jack Conway and Rand Paul talk with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

Campaign season doesn't really heat up until September ... which means now. That means all the scandals and ads and ups and downs you've heard and read about in the last several months were just stage-setters. Most voters really begin paying attention now.

It's looking like a tough year for Senate Democrats, almost of whom are polling below 50 percent. Several weeks ago, many Republicans -- including NRSC Chair John Cornyn -- thought Republicans wouldn't be able to retake the Senate. Today, it's a distinct possibility. There are a number of critical races, but you should really keep an eye on these 10.

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KY-SEN

CNN/Time Poll: Registered Voters Split In KY-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 8, 2010, 5:43PM

Kentucky Senate candidates Jack Conway (D) and Rand Paul (R)

A new poll of registered voters in Kentucky throws more uncertainty into a Senate race that in just the last several days has featured polls showing Republican nominee Rand Paul way ahead or just a little ahead of Democratic nominee Jack Conway. The CNN/Time survey of 869 registered voters potentially changes that narrative entirely, showing Paul and Conway locked in a 46-46 tie.

Polling is always an inexact science, and nowhere is that more obvious than in Kentucky this week. It's important to note that the new CNN/Time poll surveys registered voters, while the other public polls touted by Republicans this week (and showing Paul with a big lead) were taken among likely voters. In keeping with the story of the season, likely voters have tended to lean Republicanism heavily, which could explain the disparity between today's CNN/Time poll showing the race to be a dead even and today's Rasmussen poll showing Paul ahead by 15.

Regardless, the CNN/Time poll suggests the race in Kentucky is still potentially up in the air which should give a boost to Democrats hoping to score the upset win in the Bluegrass State. The TPM Poll Average shows Paul leading the race 47.1-41.4.

KY-SEN

Rasmussen Poll Shows Rand Paul Picking Up Speed In KY-SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 8, 2010, 4:07PM

Kentucky Senate candidates Jack Conway (D) and Rand Paul (R)

For the second time this week, a public poll shows the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky, Rand Paul, with a big lead over his Democratic opponent, Jack Conway. At the same time, a new poll from a Democratic pollster shows the race to be much closer than that, though it still shows Paul with a lead. Meanwhile, Conway's campaign is vocally protesting the public poll results, claiming their man is still running close to Paul.

The new survey of 500 likely voters in Kentucky from Rasmussen today shows Paul with a whopping 54-39 lead over Conway. The result includes "leaners" -- respondents who first said they were were undecided in the race and are then pushed to make a decision. The poll shows Paul gaining momentum over the previous Rasmussen poll, conducted Aug. 17, which showed Paul leading 51-41.

A few days ago, SurveyUSA released a poll showing Paul ahead 55-40. Even Paul was wary of that one, as one Kentucky TV station reported: "neither Paul or his campaign staff expressed confidence in the poll's 15 point margin."

Conway's campaign completely rejected the poll, questioning SUSA's sample and its methodology. They preferred to talk about a new poll from Democratic polling firm
Anzalone-Liszt which shows Paul leading 48-45.

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2010 elections

It Ain't Pretty: Senate Dems Struggle To Hold 59 Seats (CHARTS)

Christina Bellantoni | September 7, 2010, 12:35PM

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV)

Just how bad is it out there? Consider the TPM charts below showing the poll averages from each of the elections for Senate seats currently held by Democrats. Not a single Democrat in a contested race sits above 50 percent. Worse yet, many of them are outright losing to Republicans.

Election Day is still weeks off, and anything, and we mean anything, can happen to change these numbers on a dime. And it's important to remember that there are so many more factors to consider than just polls, which, as we've proven again and again, can be wrong. Many of these Democratic incumbents have mountains of cash in the bank and President Obama has continued to be a massive fundraising strength for Democratic senators despite his unpopularity nationally. Plus, some of these Dems are up against barely-ready-for-prime-time Republicans with extreme views, and those numbers seem like they could waver.

But if every TPM Poll Average culled from our PollTracker and seen below were to hold on through Nov. 2, Democrats would lose at least five seats, and possibly as many as eight.

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KY-SEN

SurveyUSA Poll: Rand Paul Leads By 15 In Kentucky

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 6, 2010, 4:42PM

KY-SEN candidate Rand Paul

Rand Paul has built up a double-digit lead in the Kentucky Senate race, according to a poll out this weekend by respected firm SurveyUSA. The poll shows Paul, the Republican nominee, with a 55-40 lead over Democratic nominee Jack Conway.

Past polling has shown the race to be much closer. The TPM Poll Average shows Paul ahead 46.0-40.4.

In the last SurveyUSA poll of the race -- taken July 27-29 -- Paul was also ahead, leading 51-43. Republicans say the new SurveyUSA poll, which shows Paul has almost doubled his lead from July, shows that Paul's campaign is in the driver's seat.

"I do think the momentum of the state is with us," Paul told WHAS-TV when asked about the poll. "What the exact number is.... we're happy to be 15 ahead. That's for sure."

Conway's campaign says the SurveyUSA poll is suspect.

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American Crossroads

Rove-Backed Group Drops Four New Senate Race Ads (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | September 2, 2010, 3:32PM

American Crossroads, the conservative group backed by Karl Rove and former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie, has a whole set of new ads in four key Senate races.

First up is an ad in Nevada, against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV). This spot continues the theme from American Crossroads's previous ad, complaining about stimulus spending going to help other states.

"Really, Harry," the announcer says. "How about some help for Nevada?"

The TPM Poll Average of the Nevada Senate race puts Reid ahead of Republican Sharron Angle by 46.6%-43.7%.

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