Polls

Perrymentum: Poll Shows Texas Gov. Leading In South Carolina

Kyle Leighton | August 26, 2011, 3:55PM

Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX)

To complete a week of good news for Tex. Gov. Rick Perry, in which polls found him leading nationally and in Iowa for the GOP presidential nod little over a week after he began campaigning, a new poll released on Friday now shows him ahead of the pack in South Carolina, with another lead outside the margin of error.

Perry captures 31 percent of the GOP primary voters surveyed, with former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney in second with 20 percent, Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) at 14, businessman Herman Cain at 9, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 5, Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) at 4, with former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum and former Gov. Jon Huntsman both at 2.

The Texas governor is the most favorably viewed candidate in the race, with 61 percent viewing him that way against 17. Some of the candidates actually have underwater favorability ratings within the GOP electorate, including Gingrich, Paul, Santorum, and especially Jon Huntsman, who registers only a 9 percent favorability rating against a whopping 44 percent with an unfavorable view.

Gallup also revealed new information on Friday that showed Perry is really catching on with Tea Party supporters nationally, data which is reflected in the new South Carolina poll. Perry gets 37 percent of Tea Party supporters, double the next closest candidate, Bachmann.

The poll was conducted and sponsored by Magellan Strategies, and uses 637 automated interviews with likely South Carolina GOP primary voters. It was conducted from August 22nd -23rd and has a sampling error of 3.88 percent.

Polls

The Usual Suspects: Rick Perry's Support In Gallup National Poll Came From The Tea Party

Kyle Leighton | August 26, 2011, 2:31PM

Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX) holds a copy of his book

A new detail from additional information released by Gallup on Friday about their national survey on the GOP presidential field: Tex. Gov. Rick Perry, who outpaced everyone in their recent survey with 29 percent of the total, captured 35 percent of those GOP voters who consider themselves supporters of the Tea Party movement.

Rounding out the candidates supported by Tea Party backers were former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney and Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), both at 14 percent, Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) at 12, businessman Herman Cain at 6, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 5, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum (R) at 3 and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman at 1 percent.

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Polls

Pew: Majority Find GOP Unfavorable, But Obama's Leadership Ratings Also Drop

Kyle Leighton | August 26, 2011, 6:23AM

Rep. John Boehner (R-OH) and President Barack Obama

Polls have shown for weeks that voters are upset with Washington, and not just in a normal partisan bickering way. Congressional approval ratings are at historic lows after the almost-default and President Obama, who had maintained an approval rating around 50 percent throughout his presidency despite some major legislative battles, has seen his rating hit a low of 38 percent just a few days ago.

But a new Pew poll out on Wednesday provided a more in-depth look at Americans' frustrations: namely, very high unfavorability ratings for the Republican Party, and lower ratings on President Obama's ability to lead.

The poll shows problems for the GOP in two ways. First, the GOP has seen a more severe fall in its rating after the debt fight, as its approval now sits at 34 percent against 59 percent disapproval, a large shift from the closer split that Republicans had the first month they controlled the House: 43 - 48 in February. The Democratic Party had a slim positive rating in February of 47 - 46, but has also slipped in all the Washington brinkmanship, to 43 - 50.

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Iowa caucus

Pro-Perry PAC Survey: Texas Gov. Moves Ahead In Iowa

Kyle Leighton | August 25, 2011, 5:51PM

Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX)

Tex. Gov. Rick Perry's move from non-candidate to frontrunner in the GOP nomination process has been a big story, but a story driven largely by national polling. While Perry's starting to become the first choice of the national Republican electorate, the nomination process will go through Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, where other candidates had a head start. But according to two new polls, that advantage has been lost.

A pro-Perry PAC just released a poll of GOP caucus-goers showing him in the lead with 23 percent, followed closely by Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) at 20 percent and former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney at 16. The rest of the field is rounded out by Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) at 9 percent, businessman Herman Cain at 8, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum (R) at 7, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 3 and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman at 2. The PAC also touts 30 percent support amongst self-described "very conservative" caucus-goers, which they say makes up 55 percent of that group.

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Polls

Rick Perry's (Southern) Charm

Kyle Leighton | August 25, 2011, 6:10AM

Texas Governor and Presidential Candidate Rick Perry (R)

America is a politically divided nation. For all the outcomes of the 2008 election, it wasn't a true redrawing of the political map. Some states, which were and continue to change demographically, were primed to become full-fledged swing states, and a strong Democratic candidate in a change election brought them to his side.

But two years later, the GOP was again winning statewide elections in states like Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan and Virginia, and a return to the traditional calculus began. Now as the GOP moves ahead with the 2012 presidential primary process, Republican voters are starting to return to their roots: falling for a southern Governor.

Other GOP flavors of the month have so far been sampled: real estate mogul Donald Trump made some loud noises and bowed out, Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) seemed interesting for a while but has probably peaked. Because in the end, what are the actual chances that the modern Republican Party will nominate a congresswoman from Minnesota, or a multi-millionaire former governor from an incredibly blue state? History tells us they aren't great.

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Rick Perry

Perry Vaults Into Lead For GOP Nomination In Two National Polls

Kyle Leighton | August 24, 2011, 2:40PM

Former Mass. Governor Mitt Romney has been the frontrunner in most national polls of the GOP primary over the last year, and the general punditry considered it his nomination to lose, at least at first. And while it's still early, new polling released on Wednesday shows his unchallenged time at the head of the pack may be over.

A new national Gallup poll of GOP and GOP-leaning voters shows Romney, who had more than a quarter of the total vote in Gallup's June numbers in the same poll, has fallen to 17 percent, while newly minted candidate Tex. Gov. Rick Perry surges to 29 percent and the lead. Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), considered a top contender, falls to fourth with 10 percent, behind Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) at 13 percent. The rest of the field is in single digits.

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Polls

Obama Hits Another Low In The Gallup Poll

Kyle Leighton | August 23, 2011, 3:31PM

President Barack Obama (D)

It's been a tough month for Washington's approval ratings, as Congress has hit new lows and general economic confidence sank. President Obama is also being dragged down, not only because of partisan bickering over the debt deal, but because of a stagnant and volatile economy, which was one of the President's strongest issues when he came into office. Now Obama has hit a new low in the Gallup tracking poll at 38 percent approval.

Even though there is no lack of bad news, Obama is still far away from President Bush's low, which was 25 percent. The current President has had strong staying power in his approval rating, despite bruising legislative battles with Congress and the continuation of global conflicts: as the graph below shows, it has remained around the 50 percent mark.

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Polls

PPP: Iowa Becoming Perry Country As Bachmann Falls

Kyle Leighton | August 23, 2011, 12:23PM

As TPM reported Tuesday morning, Rep. Michele Bachmann's (R-MN) time as a legitimate contender for the GOP presidential nomination could be up, as a new survey from Public Policy Polling (D) shows her the third choice of Republican voters in Iowa, a state essential to her campaign. The new horserace with the full announced GOP field shows Tex. Gov. Rick Perry at the top with 22 percent, former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney at 19 percent, Bachmann at 18, and Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) at 16 percent.

There's no way around it -- Bachmann's popularity has taken a huge hit over the last two months, as shown by the PPP numbers. In June, Bachmann enjoyed a favorable/unfavorable rating of 53 - 16. That statistic is now 47 - 35, still positive, but not particularly high considering these are GOP voters. Perry, on the other hand, has gone from relatively unknown (a 21 - 16 favorability rating in June, majority undecided) to well liked, with a 56 - 24 rating. Paul has increased his favorability rating by 11 points over that time, and Romney has dropped slightly over the last two months.

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Gay Rights

Tolerance Wave? Multiple Polls In Red and Purple States Show Support For Gay Rights

Kyle Leighton | August 23, 2011, 6:25AM

Pro Same-Sex Marriage Parade, Maplewood, NJ

As gay rights advocates have made gains over the last few years, the public seems to be moving in the same direction. Friday saw the release of a new poll sponsored by the Human Rights Campaign (HRC) and Citizens for Equal Protection showing citizens deep in the middle of conservative America - in Nebraska - are solidly for non-discrimination protections for members of the gay, lesbian bisexual and transgender (LGBT) community, even if the current state laws are not. 73 percent of Nebraskans surveyed support protecting LGBT people from discrimination in employment, protections which currently don't exist there.

The survey comes as Public Policy Polling (D) has been polling a diversity of states on the question of gay marriage and civil unions. Those polls have shown that some version of recognition for same sex couples is popular: even in the most Republican state in the union, Utah, 60 percent supported either gay marriage or civil unions, a trend also reflected in a separate HRC polling of the state.

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Tea Party

Study: Tea Party Members Cultural Dispositions 'Authoritarianism, Fear Of Change, Libertarianism And Nativism'

Kyle Leighton | August 22, 2011, 5:30PM

What are the four primary characteristics most associated with those Americans sympathetic to the Tea Party? "Authoritarianism, ontological insecurity (fear of change), libertarianism and nativism." So says one of the many findings in a study presented to the American Sociological Association on Monday.

The academic study, Cultures of the Tea Party, purports to break down the cultural attitudes of Tea Party loyalists, through a mix of polling data and interviews with tea partiers at a gathering in eastern North Carolina. The study's lead author is Andrew J. Perrin, an associate professor of sociology at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill, with co-authors Steven J. Tepper, an associate professor of sociology at Vanderbilt University, Neal Caren, an assistant professor of sociology at UNC, and Sally Morris, a doctoral student in sociology at UNC.

The study used polling of North Carolina and Tennessee, conducted by Public Policy Polling (D) in the Summer of 2010, and determined the cultural dispositions by measuring the responses of tea partiers to set questions. After PPP surveyed over 2,000 voters who were sympathetic to the Tea Party, researchers then reinterviewed almost 600 in the fall of 2010. Those interviews included everything from personality based queries like "Would you say it is more important that a child obeys his parents, or that he is responsible for his own actions?" to more political ones, like "Do you think immigrants who came into this country illegally but pay taxes and have not been arrested should be given the opportunity to become permanent legal residents?" The study also incudes interviews and short responses with ten participants at a Tea Party rally in Washington, NC.

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2012

Gallup National Poll: Obama In Dead Heat With GOP Challengers

Kyle Leighton | August 22, 2011, 3:35PM

President Barack Obama

President Obama's national approval rating has never been lower, and it's starting to drag him down in head-to-head matchups against his potential GOP rivals in the 2012 election. Gallup polled the President against former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney, Tex. Gov. Rick Perry, Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), and Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX). Each trial heat produced a statistical tie among registered voters.

By the numbers, Obama is only bested by Romney, 48 percent to 46. He ties Perry at 47 percent, and outpolls Paul 47 - 45 and Bachmann 48 - 44. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus four percent, meaning that in each case, the race is a dead heat.

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Jon Huntsman

Jon Huntsman Takes On The GOP Field, And President Obama's Leadership

Kyle Leighton | August 21, 2011, 11:20AM

Jon Huntsman

GOP Presidential nominee Jon Huntsman went after his opponents in the Republican primary on ABC's This Week with Christiane Amanpour Sunday, continuing a trend of positioning himself as the more moderate candidate in the field: "This is a center right country. I am a center right candidate," he said.

In an interview with guest host Jake Tapper, Huntsman assailed his Republican counterparts with specific criticisms. For former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney, the dig was on flip-flopping: "You know, if we were to talk about his inconsistencies and his -- the changes on various issues, we'd be here all afternoon."

For Tex. Gov. Rick Perry, it was his extreme political positioning, referring to Perry's comment that should Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke inject more cash into the economy's money supply, Perry would consider it "almost treasonous,": "I'm not sure that the average voter out there is going to hear that treasonous remark and say that sounds like a presidential candidate, that sounds like someone who is serious on the issues."

And when it came to Rep. Michele Bachmann's (R-MN) contention that she would get gas prices below $2 a gallon, Huntsman simply let go: "I just don't know what world that comment would come from. You know, we live in the real world."

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