2012 elections

Larry Sabato's Early Look: Tough For Dems To Hold Senate In 2012

Jon Terbush | January 6, 2011, 11:02AM

Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT)

Republicans just took back control of the House and, at least right now, they're in a strong position to retake the Senate in two years, according to an analysis of the 2012 Senate field by political scientist Larry Sabato.

As Sabato points out, the Democratic caucus currently holds 23 of the 33 Senate seats that will be on the line in 2012, meaning they have much more to lose than the GOP. Democrats will have to play a lot more defense and hope for help in the form of a strong down ticket effect from President Obama.

Also worrisome for Democrats, Sabato rates seven of those seats, six of them now in Democratic hands, as toss ups. If those races split four to three in favor of Republicans, and the two parties hold the rest of their seats, Republicans would swing their current 53-47 Senate minority into a 50-50 tie.

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Larry Sabato

GOP Faces Electoral Risks In Running On Health Care Repeal

Eric Kleefeld | December 28, 2009, 6:31PM

Larry Sabato, Director of the Center for Politics

With the GOP getting closer and closer to a 2010 campaign pledging to repeal the health care bill, what are some of the political pitfalls -- or potential benefits? We asked University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato, and he told us that the GOP could face risks because of the popular individual components of the bill.

"There are very popular parts of the health care bill, i.e., the insurance reforms. If the GOP doesn't exempt those from repeal, they'll be making a major error. Overwhelming majorities of voters want to stop insurance companies from cutting off insurance just when it is needed the most," Sabato said.

On the other hand: "There are also unpopular parts of the bill, potentially including new fees and taxes (depending on what is actually adopted). Politically, it could be popular for the Republicans to focus on repealing them or cutting them back. Of course, without the money, there can't be a restructuring of health care."

Sabato also made clear that the real problem is one of political credibility. If Obama is still president, then his veto pen should probably be enough to stop any repeal efforts even if the GOP took both houses of Congress.

Larry Sabato

Why Are Dem Voters Now Less Motivated Than Republicans?

Eric Kleefeld | November 30, 2009, 4:32PM

Prof. Larry Sabato, University of Virginia

So what should we make of the recent Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll, showing that Democratic voters are much less motivated than Republicans are to vote in 2010? Prof. Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia gave us some perspective -- and said that even if the Democrats pass major programs like health care, it won't necessarily be enough to turn things back around.

"Well, look first let's stress it's a year ahead of the election, so a lot can change," Sabato cautioned. "The second point I'd make is, this is not terribly unusual. This is the norm for off year elections."

"Now why does this happen?" Sabato also explained "The opposition has a great advantage in off-year elections. Their numbers tend to be frustrated and angry about A-B-C, D-E-F. There are a lot of reasons why they're angry. The supporters of a president inevitably become somewhat disillusioned by the process of governing."

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