IL-SEN

Who Leads IL-SEN? Depends How Many Candidates Are Involved

Eric Lach | October 29, 2010, 12:27PM

Illinois Senate candidates Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Mark Kirk (R)

The Illinois Senate race has been close for months. Democrat Alexi Giannoulias and Republican Rep. Mark Kirk have attacked each other viciously over their respective scandals, attempting to gain advantage in a tight contest. So who is ahead? Well, it depends which polls you look at. Because while Giannoulias and Kirk are the headliners, two other candidates, the Green Party's LeAlan Jones and Libertarian Mike Labno, are each pulling in enough support to sway the results of this close race.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Stranger Than Fiction? TPM Casts The 2010 Midterms Movie]

One note: support for third-party candidates often comes up much lower on Election Day itself than compared to the pre-election polls. In many cases, voters who were thinking of casting a protest vote ultimately pick one of the two major-party candidates. However, this effect is very hard to predict.

That said, let's break down the numbers:

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IL-SEN

Tribune Poll: Kirk Leads Giannoulias By 3 Points In IL-SEN

Eric Lach | October 25, 2010, 10:57AM

IL Senate candidates Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Mark Kirk (R)

A new Chicago Tribune/WGN poll of the Illinois Senate race shows a still-close contest, but the numbers show a five-point swing in favor of Republican Rep. Mark Kirk since the last Tribune poll.

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IL-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Kirk Leads By Four Points In IL-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | October 20, 2010, 9:42AM

Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL)

The new Rasmussen poll of the Illinois Senate race gives Republican Mark Kirk a narrow lead against Democrat Alexi Giannoulias, for the Senate seat formerly held by President Obama.

The numbers: Kirk 44%, Giannoulias 40%, and Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones 4%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from last week, Giannoulias had 44%, Kirk 43%, and Jones 4%.

From the pollster's analysis: "Highlighting the closeness of this contest is the fact that Kirk and Giannoulias have now run within four points or less of each other in 10 surveys since early June. Jones' support has held steady at four percent (4%) for the last three surveys."

This new poll was conducted entirely before last night's acrimonious debate, but it does provide a useful baseline measurement for any potential changes down the line. The TPM Poll Average gives Kirk 44.1%, Giannoulias 42.3%, and Jones 3.6%.

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IL-SEN

Giannoulias Ad: Kirk's 'Whole Political Career Is Probably A Lie' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | October 15, 2010, 4:53PM

Alexi Giannoulias campaign ad, "My Left Foot"

Democratic candidate Alexi Giannoulias has a new ad in the hard-fought Illinois Senate race, and it pulls no punches in presenting Republican candidate Mark Kirk as an out-of-touch Washington politician who lied about his military service.

"Mark Kirk lied about going to war, opposed middle-class tax cuts,and said unemployment's not that big an issue," the announcer says. "What do you say?"

Clips of various folks, depicted as average people on the street, are shown talking to the camera and saying such things as: "I don't think he has a clue about unemployment," "He's been in Washington too long," and "His whole political career is probably a lie," and more.

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IL-SEN

Fox News Poll: Kirk Leads Giannoulias By Two Points In IL-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | September 28, 2010, 1:16PM

IL-SEN candidates Rep. Mark Kirk (R) and state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D)

The new Fox News poll of the Illinois Senate race gives Republican Mark Kirk a narrow lead over Democrat Alexi Giannoulias -- with quite a few protest votes for the Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones.

The numbers: Kirk 42%, Giannoulias 40%, and Jones 7%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error. There is no previous Fox News poll of this race. However, this poll was conducted through a Rasmussen offshoot, Pulse Opinion Research, which performs made-to-order robopolls. In the previous Rasmussen poll from last week, Kirk had 44%, Giannoulias 41%, and Jones 4%.

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Alexi Giannoulias

Green Party IL-SEN Candidate: I Could Win This Thing

Jillian Rayfield | June 23, 2010, 5:02PM

IL Senate candidate LeAlan M. Jones (G)

Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones likes his chances in the race for Barack Obama's old Senate seat.

Sure, Democrat Alexi Giannoulias may not be worried about third party candidates spoiling his chance to take advantage of Republican Mark Kirk's recent problems in the race. But Jones is even less concerned about the possibility of spoiling Democrats' chances to hold Obama's old seat -- and says he could win this thing.

"I don't know how you spoil something that's already rotten," Jones told TPM.

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Alexi Giannoulias

Could Green Party Candidate Determine IL-SEN Outcome? Giannoulias Camp Not Worried About It

Jillian Rayfield | June 22, 2010, 9:09AM

IL-SEN candidate Alexi Giannoulias

A spokesman for Democratic candidate Alexi Giannoulias told TPM Monday he's not worried about third-party candidates affecting the Illinois Senate race -- despite a Public Policy Polling survey released last week that found Democratic State Treasurer Giannoulias neck-and-neck with GOP Rep. Mark Kirk, 31%-30%. Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones polled at a surprising 14%.

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IL-SEN

Poll: Giannoulias Edges Kirk By One Point -- And Voters Don't Like Either Of Them

Eric Kleefeld | June 15, 2010, 12:01PM

IL-SEN candidates Rep. Mark Kirk (R) and state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D)

The new survey of the Illinois Senate race by Public Policy Polling (D) finds that this state is now struggling in its choice between two seriously flawed candidates -- and there could even be a significant protest vote for a third candidate.

The numbers: Democratic state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, who has endured bad publicity from the failure of his family's bank, has 31%. Republican Rep. Mark Kirk, who has come under fire for false statements about his military record, has 30%. And a third candidate, LeAlan Jones of the Green Party, gets 14%. The survey of registered voters has a ±4.2% margin of error.

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