Health Care

#HealthCareFAIL: How The Dems Botched Their Signature Legislation

Brian Beutler | January 29, 2010, 3:37PM

Clockwise from top left: Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) and Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT); MA Sen. candidate Martha Coakley (D); Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA); Former Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) and President Obama

Talk about fits and starts.

A year ago Democrats committed to passing comprehensive health care legislation; six months ago, it became clear that their project wouldn't go smoothly; one month ago it was full speed ahead; and a week and a half ago it all fell apart.

Health care reform is now on life support. To mix metaphors, it's on life support and the back burner at the same time. How the Democrats' signature agenda item went from a foregone conclusion to a prospect in peril is a tale of missteps and bad luck. No single player or event brought us to where we are today. But if any of the below episodes had gone...more smoothly, this might've been a done deal.

You know how the saying goes: Success has a thousand fathers, but failure is an orphan. And you can be sure that if health care reform fails, the people below will make like John Edwards--quick-like.

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MA-SEN

White House Didn't Have MA-Sen Health Care Contingency Plan

Christina Bellantoni | January 28, 2010, 5:59PM

David Axelrod and President Obama

The White House had no contingency plan for health care reform if Democrat Martha Coakley lost the special election in Massachusetts, and officials did not discuss the possibility a Democratic loss would dramatically imperil their legislative efforts, a top adviser said today.

President Obama's senior advisor David Axelrod said there "wasn't much discussion" about an alternative path to passing health care with just 59 Democrats in the Senate because there was "widespread assumption was that that seat was safe."

"The truth is the flares went up about 10 days before that election," Axelrod said during a briefing today with reporters and opinion-makers.

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2010 elections

Top Dem Pollster: Pass Health Care Or Face 2010 'Disaster'

Christina Bellantoni | January 21, 2010, 12:53PM

Democratic pollster Celinda Lake

A top Democratic pollster said today if Congress fails to pass health care it will be a "disaster" this fall.

Celinda Lake, who most recently served as the pollster for Attorney General Martha Coakley's losing campaign in Massachusetts, said there is deep frustration with Washington but moving away from health care would be the worst decision.

"We can't talk about it for a year and deliver nothing, that would be a disaster," Lake said. "We should pass it and then we have to go sell it. We have to tell people what is in it."

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Scott Brown

Brown Already Recording Robo-Call For McCain

Rachel Slajda | January 20, 2010, 6:35PM

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), Senator-Elect Scott Brown (R-MA)

Sen.-elect Scott Brown (R-MA), who won his seat in last night's special election, has already recorded a robo-call for Sen. John McCain's (R-AZ) re-election campaign.

Brown's campaign confirmed that he recorded the call, which asks voters to call McCain and thank him for supporting Brown. The number goes to Friends of John McCain, the senator's campaign.

McCain is facing an election this November. He may also find himself vulnerable in the Republican primary if the more conservative J.D. Hayworth challenges him.

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Health Care

Gibbs: One Option For Health Care 'Is To Have The House Work On The Senate Bill'

Rachel Slajda | January 20, 2010, 6:28PM

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs tonight acknowledged that the House may pass the Senate health care bill word-for-word, now that Democrats have 59 seats instead of a filibuster-proof 60 in the Senate.

It was apparently the first time the White House directly acknowledged that as an option.

"We've got a bill that's passed the United States Senate. And one of the ways that is being discussed to get health care reform, to make it a reality, is to have the House work on the Senate bill," Gibbs said on MSNBC.

"Health care reform legislation isn't gonna go through the Senate until Sen.-elect Brown becomes Sen. Brown. But that doesn't have to stop health care reform," he added.

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Barney Frank

U-Turn: Frank Says, With Assurances, He'll Vote For The Senate Health Care Bill

Brian Beutler | January 20, 2010, 5:57PM

Rep Barney Frank (D-MA)

In an interview with TPMDC this evening, Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) reversed course--apologizing for a harsh statement he released last night in the wake of the Massachusetts special election, and saying, explicitly, that if he's assured the bill will be fixed down the line, he'd vote for the Senate health care bill.

"I'm easy. I'm strongly inclined to vote for the thing, even though I don't like the health care tax thing," Frank told me. "But you know, I was ready to vote for the bill when I had people on the left yelling at me not to vote for it. So you know I'll vote for any of it... to try and move the process along."

Frank was quick to qualify his remarks, though, noting that a vote from him would require promises from leadership and the White House that at least one controversial element of the legislation would be fixed in subsequent legislation. "I take it back...I would want assurances that we were going to amend the health care tax piece," Frank said.

Last night, Frank cast significant doubt on whether Democrats could conceivably pass a health care bill at all. In a statement issued after Sen.-elect Scott Brown's (R-MA) victory last night, Frank said "I am hopeful that some Republican senators will be willing to discuss a revised version of health care reform. Because I do not think that the country would be well served by the health care status quo. But our respect for democratic procedures must rule out any effort to pass a health care bill as if the Massachusetts election had not happened."

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Jim DeMint

DeMint: 'Waterloo' Remark Was 'Call To Arms' In MA-SEN Race

Eric Kleefeld | January 20, 2010, 3:52PM

Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC)

Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), who famously declared last year that the health care debate could be President Obama's "Waterloo," and that beating Obama on the issue would "break him," is taking some credit for the Republican victory in the Massachusetts Senate race, The Hill reports.

"I'm not looking for vindication but I do believe that was a call to arms early in this race," DeMint said. "I was one of the first who was willing to take the president on directly on an agenda that I thought was out of control. So I certainly don't regret saying it."

DeMint made it clear that he doesn't want to break Obama personally. "I wanted to break his momentum," DeMint explained. And he also had a warning for the Democrats: "If the president and the Democrats don't get the message from Massachusetts, it will be their Waterloo."

Democrats

Dem Talking Points: We're Screwed!

Brian Beutler | January 20, 2010, 3:07PM

Senator Harry Reid (D-NV), Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL)

New Senate Democratic talking points, distributed in response to last night's special election in Massachusetts show the party pre-emptively placing the blame for a lackluster agenda moving forward on Republicans, who Dems say they now need to pass legislation.

"Republicans have an obligation to the American people to join us in governing our nation through these difficult times and to help clean up the mess they left behind," reads the memo obtained by TPMDC. "It is mathematically impossible for Democrats to pass legislation on our own. Senate Republicans to come to the table (sic) with ideas for improving our nation and not obstructionist tactics."

The new message also attacks Republicans for hypocrisy--for threatening to block Democratic attempts to address the country's fiscal situations after saddling it with soaring deficits under the previous administration.

You can read the entire memo below the fold.

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State Of The Union

Obama Will Mention MA-Sen Loss In State Of The Union

Christina Bellantoni | January 20, 2010, 2:37PM

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said President Obama will address the Democrats' unexpected loss of the U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts during his State of the Union address next week.

Gibbs said Obama believes the White House shares the responsibility for Democrat Martha Coakley's loss last night, adding "there's no doubt we are frustrated by that."

"I don't want to get into the blame game. I won't do the percentages as tempting as that might be," Gibbs said.

Obama won't ignore the message the election sent to Washington, he said.

"He will undoubtedly address the results and what they mean in the State of the Union," Gibbs said.

Gibbs said the focus of the address to Congress on Wednesday night will be the 2010 direction for the administration: jobs and fiscal responsibility. As we have reported, he also will address the failed terrorist attack on Christmas Day.

Steve King

Steve King: Massachusetts Election A Miracle, 'I Believe There Has Been Intervention' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | January 20, 2010, 12:39PM

Rep. Steve King (R-IA)

Rep. Steve King (R-IA), one of the most outspoken conservatives in Congress, took to the House floor last night to celebrate the victory of Sen.-elect Scott Brown (R-MA) as a populist uprising against what he called the Democrats' socialist agenda.

"How could you possibly take away, spend enough money, and take away enough liberty, that the three-and-a-half to one Democrats to Republicans in Massachusetts would elect the Republican to come down to the United States Senate and vote against cloture, so that the Harry Reid bill could be killed in the Senate?" King asked rhetorically. "How could you ever spend that much money? I didn't believe it was possible, Mr. Speaker. But I -- some would say a miracle has taken place tonight, and I wouldn't disagree with that. I believe there has been intervention, and I'm grateful for it."

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2010 elections

After Mass. Loss, DSCC Launches 'Forensic Examination' Of 2010 Field

Christina Bellantoni | January 20, 2010, 12:37PM

Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ)

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is scouring each Senate race with a "forensic examination" of each campaign and candidate in the aftermath of the party's stunning loss last night in Massachusetts.

DSCC Chairman Sen. Robert Menendez told TPMDC in an interview today that Democrats running for and defending Senate seats can't afford to cede the "change" mantle.

The DSCC is immediately assessing each battle from New Hampshire to Colorado to make sure those campaigns are "calibrated to the volatility of this electorate," Menendez said.

"We've got to conduct a forensic examination of each of our campaigns and candidates," he said

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Scott Brown

Brown Says He Will Go To D.C. Thursday

Rachel Slajda | January 20, 2010, 12:14PM

Senator-Elect Scott Brown (R-MA)

Sen.-elect Scott Brown (R-MA) said today that he plans to go to Washington, D.C., this Thursday.

In a press conference today, he said he hoped Senate leadership would seat him right away. But leaders have said they will wait until they get official certification from Massachusetts, which could take around 15 days.

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Barack Obama

Poll: Anti-Coakley Obama Voters Say Dems Aren't Doing Enough

Brian Beutler | January 20, 2010, 11:19AM

President Obama with his advisers in the Oval Office.

Here's an interesting finding. A survey yesterday of pro-Obama voters in Massachusetts who didn't support Democrat Martha Coakley (either they stayed home, or they voted for Scott Brown) say their disenchantment has much to do with the fact that Democrats haven't done enough to challenge Republican policies of the Bush years.

A Research 2000 poll commissioned by Democracy for America, MoveOn, and the Progressive Change Campaign Committee asked 500 Obama voters who supported Republican Scott Brown "Generally speaking do you think Barack Obama and Democrats in Washington, DC are delivering enough on the change Obama promised to bring to America during the campaign?"

Overall, 49 percent of respondents said "no," 37 percent said "yes," with 14 percent unsure.

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Bob Casey

Senate Leadership To House: Health Care's On You

Brian Beutler | January 20, 2010, 10:39AM

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) and Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY)

After an early morning meeting today, members of the Senate Democratic leadership said outright what many suspected after last night's election: The fate of health care rests with the House.

I asked Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), chair of the Democratic Steering Committee, whether there was any chance Senate Democrats would embark on another round of health care votes if the House sent a modified bill back their way.

"I think at this point, given the new senator from Massachusetts' position, I think that that would be tough to do," she said.

Asked whether the fate of reform rested with the House, Democratic Conference Secretary Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA), said, "I think so."

So what's next for the Senate? Leaders and rank and file members say: Jobs, jobs, jobs.

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2010 elections

Democrats Wake Up To Different Landscape: Potentially Brutal 2010

Christina Bellantoni | January 20, 2010, 9:25AM

Senator Harry Reid (D-NV), Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL)

Surveying the 2010 landscape in the aftermath of the Massachusetts special election that cost Democrats their 60-seat supermajority, President Obama and the Congressional Democrats are going to have to defend more seats, spend more money and potentially concede key elements of their agenda.

In the immediate sense there is a big question about whether - and how - Democrats will be able to pass the health care bill they've worked on since July.

On a macro political level it already wasn't going to be a easy year before Republican Scott Brown captured the seat Ted Kennedy held for 47 years. And it just got a lot harder.

Democrats cringe at the obvious comparison between the sentiment among Americans today and what they were one year ago when Obama raised his hand before millions who'd braved frigid temperatures to witness history.

But for a White House that values symbolism, losing Kennedy's seat on the anniversary of Obama's inauguration and facing deep criticism from Democrats over Kennedy's signature issue of health care badly stings.

And Republicans who felt deflated one year ago are seizing the moment.

"We are waking up feeling like Republicans can compete anywhere," a former RNC official told TPMDC. "Every seat is going to get another look."

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MA-SEN

The Democrats Begin The Blame Game

Laura Colarusso | January 19, 2010, 11:34PM

MA Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) and Senator-Elect Scott Brown (R-MA)

It didn't take long for the Dems to start the finger pointing in the wake of Martha Coakley's loss in the Massachusetts special Senate election.

As the election night returns came pouring in so did the blame. Coakley, a Democrat and the Massachusetts Attorney General, was ahead of Republican State Senator Scott Brown by double digit margins well into December. But, her lead faded in early January and her campaign was never able to recover.

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2010 elections

Dem Talking Points: Laser Focus On Jobs Since Anger And Anxiety Factors In MA-Sen

Christina Bellantoni | January 19, 2010, 11:33PM

MA Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) and Senator-Elect Scott Brown (R-MA)

New Democratic talking points are emerging after Republican Scott Brown's victory in Massachusetts, with officials saying the election wasn't a referendum on President Obama or health care.

Republicans have made that exact point in their reactions tonight, but a senior Democrat told TPMDC tonight that while Martha Coakley's loss stings, it wasn't the White House's fault.

Obama wasn't asked to campaign until the final 10 days of the race, when Brown's surge was already underway, the Democrat said. White the party logged a lot of phone calls and doors knocked for Coakley, it wasn't enough to make up for the time she lost by getting her general election campaign off to a slow start.

Brown "tapped into the anger and anxiety Americans are feeling and he won," the Democrat said, adding "This is something the President is familiar with considering it's why we won in 2008."

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Democrats

Determined or Delusional? House Leadership Sounds Optimistic on HCR

Brian Beutler | January 19, 2010, 10:11PM

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)

In the hours and minutes before Republican Scott Brown won Ted Kennedy's Senate seat, House Democratic leadership sounded resilient, even optimistic notes about the possibility of passing health care reform anyhow. But that puts them at odds with their rank and file members, particularly progressives, who, based on press reports and interviews conducted as returns were coming in, but before the race was called, now have a hard time seeing an endgame.

A number of progressives say that they still can not vote to pass the Senate bill in the House, even though that would wrap up the reform project once and for all. But with at least one Democratic member of the Senate pre-emptively saying there should be no more Senate votes on health care before Brown is seated, that increasingly appears to be their only avenue. The question is, is that road blocked?

"If it comes down to that Senate bill or nothing, I think we're going to end up with nothing, because I don't hear a lot of support on our side for that bill," said Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA). "I've lost my faith in anything happening quickly that requires Senate action.

"If she loses, it's over," Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY) said this evening in New York.

Two high-profile progressives--Reps. Anthony Weiner (D-NY) and Jerrold Nadler (D-NY)--said the only way they could sign on to the Senate bill is if it was accompanied immediately, or even preceded by, a separate bill, making a number of major preemptive changes to what they regard as an inferior package.

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MA-SEN

Health Care Comes To Screeching Halt - Sen. Webb: No HCR Votes Until Brown Seated

Christina Bellantoni | January 19, 2010, 9:49PM

Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA)

Less than 15 minutes after the race was called for Republican Scott Brown, the first of what could be many conservative Democrats asks for leadership to put the brakes on health care reform.

Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) congratulated Brown on his win and delivered a zinger:

"In many ways the campaign in Massachusetts became a referendum not only on health care reform but also on the openness and integrity of our government process. It is vital that we restore the respect of the American people in our system of government and in our leaders. To that end, I believe it would only be fair and prudent that we suspend further votes on health care legislation until Senator-elect Brown is seated."

MA-SEN

Coakley Concedes In Massachusetts

Christina Bellantoni | January 19, 2010, 9:37PM

Senator-Elect Scott Brown (R-MA)

Republican Scott Brown has been declared the winner in Massachusetts, but before the networks and Associated Press called it for him, Democrat Martha Coakley called him to concede.

The Boston Globe reported that she phoned him at 9:13 p.m.

MA-SEN

Brown Wins Kennedy Seat In Massachusetts, Erasing Democrats' 60-Seat Super Majority

Christina Bellantoni | January 19, 2010, 9:27PM

MA Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) and Senator-Elect Scott Brown (R-MA)

Massachusetts voters chose state Sen. Scott Brown as their next U.S. Senator, sending a Republican to replace the late Sen. Ted Kennedy and damaging the chances of passing health care bill that Democrats have spent months crafting.

The Associated Press and CNN declared Brown the victor over Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) with two-thirds of precincts reporting. (See returns here.) Kennedy held the seat 47 years until his death last summer.

It was the first statewide special election in the state's history, and unpredictable from the start. Democrats were caught off guard less than two weeks ago when polls showed Coakley, who had won the primary in December, had just a slim lead.

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MA-SEN

Coakley, Brown Campaigns Trade Attacks Over Alleged Pre-Marked Ballots

Eric Kleefeld | January 19, 2010, 7:34PM

MA Senate Candidates AG Martha Coakley (D) and State Sen. Scott Brown (R)

The two Senate campaigns are now firing rhetorical shots at each other over allegations of irregularities in the election. And the Brown campaign is accusing the Coakley campaign of making the whole thing up -- that is, the Republican says the Democrat is crying vote fraud.

The Coakley campaign sounded the alarm that some voters -- five, by their count -- were handed ballots that had already been marked for Scott Brown.

The Brown campaign seized on reports that the Coakley campaign's press release was originally dated "January 18," accusing the Coakley camp of having written the whole thing in advance. (As of right now, at least, the page is dated January 19. Coakley campaign spokesman Corey Welford told us: "It was a typo.")

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Health Care

House Braces For Coakley Loss: Are They Ready For Health Care Concession?

Christina Bellantoni | January 19, 2010, 6:57PM

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)

Are rank-and-file members of the House ready to swallow a bitter pill and pass the Senate version of health care reform if Democrat Martha Coakley loses tonight?

As we've been reporting all week, leadership is faced with two basic options: Plan A of keeping up negotiations to merge the House and Senate bill and somehow rush a final bill through regardless of the even tougher political environment they'd be facing come sunrise or Plan B of passing the Senate's bill unchanged and dealing with the differences in another bill down the line.

Leadership sources have insisted to us for days that no such Plan B talks are happening, and the White House won't publicly entertain questions about health care concession plans should Republican Scott Brown win tonight. Some sources tell us that if such a contingency plan is being developed, it's happening between President Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi to avoid leaks to the press before the election result is known.

But the sentiment among senators who just barely got to 60 votes last month and privately within the Obama White House - which has weathered blows for months on the delay - is that it may be now or never.

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MA-SEN

RNC Survey: 79% Want MA-SEN Winner Sworn In 'Immediately'

Rachel Slajda | January 19, 2010, 6:11PM

State Senator Scott Brown (R-MA) and State AG Martha Coakley (D-MA)

In a preview of the GOP's talking points should Scott Brown win the Massachusetts special election tonight, the Republican National Committee released the results of a survey it took, asking voters if a winner should be seated "immediately."

The survey asked: "Should the winner of this special election be seated in the U.S. Senate immediately or should the Democrat leaders in Washington be allowed to delay seating the winner until after the health care reform bill has been voted on?"

Not surprisingly, 79% of respondents said the winner should be seated immediately. Only 10% said Democrats should be "allowed to delay seating."

It will likely be at least 15 days before a winner is seated, based on Massachusetts state law and the Senate leadership's announcement that they will wait for official certification before swearing anyone in.

MA-SEN

Dem Memo Warned Coakley Camp About National Dems, Independent Voters

Rachel Slajda | January 19, 2010, 5:51PM

State AG Martha Coakley (D-MA)

A memo leaked today to ABC News, which was circulated to the Martha Coakley campaign and national Democrats in December, outlines some of the problems that Coakley -- then with a 51%-32% lead over Scott Brown -- might face come Election Day. Namely, conservative independents who don't like President Obama.

The memo says Coakley has a "strength of support," but warns that independent voters "look pretty conservative, and the national political context is not helping us much."

It was written by Daniel R. Gotoff of Lake Research Partners after conducting an internal poll and reportedly circulated all the way to the White House.

"Obama, whose job performance is already just barely net positive, is rated solidly negatively by a majority of independents," Gotoff wrote.

"Over the next weeks, our task is to consolidate Democrats and break even among independents. We do pretty well at that right now, but there are about a quarter of Democrats who aren't yet voting for us. And while we have a marginal lead among independents, they will be a battleground throughout this race," the memo reads.

MA-SEN

Coakley Campaign To Sound Alarm On Reported Ballots Pre-Marked For Scott Brown

Eric Kleefeld | January 19, 2010, 5:34PM

State AG Martha Coakley (D-MA)

The Martha Coakley campaign just sent out a media advisory, announcing a press conference at 5:30 p.m. ET, alleging irregularities in the special Senate election.

The press conference will involve reports of voters who received ballots that were already marked for Republican candidate Scott Brown.

It should be noted that the Coakley campaign will have on hand as an attorney one Marc Elias, who was previously the head recount lawyer for Al Franken in Minnesota, a legal drama that lasted for eight months after election day 2008. Elias also worked on another high-profile recount before that, the Washington state gubernatorial race in 2004. So clearly, the Coakley campaign was fully prepared for a super-close election by having Elias already on hand in Boston.

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Health Care

Franken: We'll Pass Health Care 'One Way Or The Other'

Rachel Slajda | January 19, 2010, 3:04PM

Sen. Al Franken (D-MN)

Sen. Al Franken (D-MN) today said health care reform will pass no matter the outcome of today's special election in Massachusetts.

He told Minnesota Public Radio that reform will pass "one way or the other." (Franken also posted a link to the story on his Senate site.)

If the Republican candidate for Senate wins today, Democrats will lose their 60-seat super-majority. Some say that loss will kill health care reform for good.

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Health Care

Counting The Days: Will Kennedy's Quick Seating In 1962 Repeat Itself?

Brian Beutler and Eric Kleefeld | January 19, 2010, 2:56PM

MA Senate Candidate Scott Brown (R), the late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) and State AG and Senate Candidate Martha Coakley (D)

In preparation for what they expect to be Republican Scott Brown's victory in the Massachusetts Senate special election tonight, conservatives and Republicans have unearthed a novel and ironic precedent, which they're using to argue that, if he wins, Brown should be seated right away as the 41st vote against health care reform.

Senate rules require that all newly-elected Senators be certified as winners by their home states before they can be sworn in. But on November 6, 1962, none other than Ted Kennedy himself won a special election to fill his own brother's Senate seat in Massachusetts, and was sworn in the very next day--two full weeks before his victory was certified, and three weeks before that certification arrived in Washington.

1962 is a long way back, and according to Senate historian Don Ritchie, the relevant rule has been in place since well before then.

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MA-SEN

Gibbs Says Tonight's Election Won't Change Health Care Negotiations

Christina Bellantoni | January 19, 2010, 2:36PM

White House Press Sec. Robert Gibbs

President Obama thinks the health care bill will live on even if Democratic candidate Martha Coakley loses tonight.

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said today Obama is going to keep on with health care regardless of the election result, and dodged question after question about a possible Coakley loss.

"Let's wait for the results," Gibbs said repeatedly.

Asked specifically if the fate of health care rides on the election result, Gibbs said Obama does not believe that.

"Health care is a priority for him now, it will be a priority for him tomorrow," Gibbs said.

MA-SEN

Poll: If U.S. Voted On MA-Sen, Brown Would Win Big

Evan McMorris-Santoro | January 19, 2010, 2:35PM

Sen. Scott Brown (R-Wrentham) voting at the Delaney Elementary School in Wrentham.

Martha Coakley (D) has had a hard time convincing people in Massachusetts that she should be the one to replace Ted Kennedy in the Senate, and a new poll from Rasmussen shows the Democrat hasn't done much better making her case outside the Bay State.

The pollster asked 1,000 "likely voters" across the country who'd they rather see win the special election today. Scott Brown (R) was the big winner, beating Coakley 49-34. The poll shows Brown has captured the heart of Republicans across the country, while Coakley hasn't fired up Democrats nationwide -- 86% of Republicans said they're pulling for Brown, while 65% of Democratic respondents said they want Coakley to win today. As has been seen in Massachusetts polling, the majority of unaffiliated voters (55%) are rooting for Brown.

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Health Care

Hoyer: Senate Health Care Bill Better Than Nothing

Brian Beutler | January 19, 2010, 12:33PM

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD)

At his weekly press conference this morning, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) told reporters that the Senate health care bill would be better than no reform at all. He also insisted that, if Republican Scott Brown wins the Massachusetts Senate special election tonight, Congress can act to pass reform in the approximately 15-day window between tonight and when Republican Scott Brown is officially seated.

I asked Hoyer whether he believes the Senate's health care bill would be better than no bill at all.

"I think the Senate bill clearly is better than nothing," Hoyer said.

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MA-SEN

Getting Out The Vote In Massachusetts Senate Race: One Side Has An App For That

Christina Bellantoni | January 19, 2010, 11:19AM

Scott Brown's PDA application to get-out-the-vote

Scott Brown has taken a page from the Barack Obama playbook, using his Web site as the hub for a get-out-the-vote operation.

Martha Coakley has farmed out most voter efforts to the Democratic National Committee's Organizing for America, and her Web site is still prominently asking people for donations even though it's election day.

Coakley (D) and Brown (R) are going after last-minute voters but the Brown campaign's effort is more aggressive and prominent.

Voters checking in on Brown's Web site today can find their polling location and are asked to make calls to help the Republican win the special election for U.S. Senate in Massachusetts. They can download a Blackberry application to reach out to their neighbors and get text messages asking them to take the day off work to get out the vote.

Visitors to Coakley's site are asked to "contribute," and people who sign up for her mailing list are taken to a donation page. There are links for supporters to make calls from home - efforts being fielded by the Democratic National Committee's Organizing for America.

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MA-SEN

Local Reports: Turnout High In MA-Sen

Evan McMorris-Santoro | January 19, 2010, 9:52AM

State Senator Scott Brown (R-MA) and State AG Martha Coakley (D-MA)

Boston-area TV station WBZ reports voter turnout "appears high" in the Massachusetts special election today. High turnout could be good news for Democrats, who vastly outnumber Republicans in the state. But increased turnout in the right areas could also be good news for Republicans, who are fired up about Scott Brown's (R) chances to replace Ted Kennedy in the Senate.

Massachusetts Secretary of State Scott Galvin told WBZ "he expects about 40-percent of voters to turn out" today, roughly double the number that voted in the primaries in December.

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MA-SEN

Coakley Predicts Victory In MA-Sen

Evan McMorris-Santoro | January 19, 2010, 9:23AM

State AG Martha Coakley (D-MA)

After casting her ballot this morning, Martha Coakley (D) told reporters she's going to win the Massachusetts special election today. The AP report:

Coakley said she wasn't paying attention to media or polls suggesting she might lose to Brown, who's ridden a wave of support across the solidly Democratic state. She planned to greet voters at a commuter rail station in Boston before heading to cities in the southern and western part of the state and also scheduled a return to Boston Tuesday night to await the results.

Click here for video of Coakley's brief press conference this morning from WBZ-TV in Boston.

Health Care

When Health Care Deal Becomes Law Obama Will Take To Hustings

Christina Bellantoni | January 18, 2010, 6:26PM

President Obama meets with doctors in the Oval Office

Once it becomes law, President Obama will campaign on the health care reform measure, detailing for everyday Americans how they would see improvements to their system and painting the Republicans as blocking meaningful change.

Though health care hangs on the outcome of tomorrow's vote in Massachusetts, the sales pitch will be critical from here on out.

Superstitious White House officials were reluctant to discuss how Obama would sell the plan given that it hasn't passed Congress and especially in light of the Senate race other than saying the campaign would be "energetic and aggressive." But past is prologue, and to get a sense of how Obama would play salesman-in-chief you only need to look back to the economic stimulus plan.

Showcasing real people and their stories has long been a favorite method for Obama as a candidate and a president. The administration also has deployed technology to help explain how legislation works and to prove transparency, even though the stimulus Web site also had some problems.

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MA-SEN

Brown: If I Win, I'll Go To D.C. Friday

Rachel Slajda | January 18, 2010, 5:06PM

State Senator Scott Brown (R-MA)

Scott Brown, the Republican candidate in the Massachusetts special election, said today he has already made travel plans to go to Washington, D.C., this Friday if he wins.

As we've reported, Massachusetts won't certify election results for about 15 days after tomorrow's election, and the U.S. Senate won't swear a winner in until they get that paperwork from the state.

But Brown has said he expects to be sworn in right away.

The timing is important because Brown's vote would end Democrats' filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. If he's sworn in before the Senate votes on health care, Democrats will have to take extreme measures -- such as trying to persuade the House to adopt the much more conservative Senate bill or going for reconciliation -- in order to pass the legislation.

MA-SEN

Politico Poll: Brown 52, Coakley 43, Kennedy 2

Evan McMorris-Santoro | January 18, 2010, 4:52PM

MA Senate Candidates AG Martha Coakley (D) and State Sen. Scott Brown (R)

A new poll sponsored by Politico shows Scott Brown (R) with a comfortable lead the day before the Massachusetts special election to replace Ted Kennedy in the Senate. The poll, conducted Sunday night for Politico by InsiderAdvantage, shows Brown leading Martha Coakley 52-43, with Libertarian Joe Kennedy hovering at 2% support.

Internal numbers from the poll are even more damaging to Coakley's chances. The results show Brown leading by 41% among independent voters and by 15%. Other recent polls have shown Coakley's support among independents to be waning, and the Politico poll is not the first released today to show Brown solidly ahead in the horserace.

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MA-SEN

Massachusetts Law: Certificate Of Election Can't Come For At Least Ten Days (And Probably More)

Eric Kleefeld | January 18, 2010, 3:29PM

MA Senate Candidates AG Martha Coakley (D) and State Sen. Scott Brown (R)

With the Senate Democrats indicating that they will wait for the state of Massachusetts to follow its own procedural guidelines for certifying a winner in the Massachusetts special Senate election, the next question should be asked: What are the state's guidelines and procedures?

We asked Michelle Tassinari, the legal counsel for the state Elections Division, and she sent us over a list of the relevant statutes.

First of all, no certificate of election can be issued until at least ten days following a special election, and in real terms it would probably be at least 15 days. State law can allow for a certificate seven days after a special election -- but that law is trumped by the federal laws governing overseas and military ballots, which are triggered because this is an election for federal office, and which create a longer window in this election.

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MA-SEN

Latest MA-Sen Poll: Brown Leads By 7 Over Coakley, Kennedy Not A Factor

Evan McMorris-Santoro | January 18, 2010, 3:02PM

Senate candidate Scott Brown (R-MA).

ARG's latest poll from the Massachusetts Senate race shows Scott Brown (R) extending his lead over Martha Coakley (D) in the final hours campaigning.

The previous ARG poll, taken Jan. 12-14, showed Brown with a 3-point lead over Coakley, 48-45. The new poll, released today, was taken over the weekend and shows Brown's lead to now be 7 points. He leads Coakley 52-45, with 2% undecided. The margin of error is 4%. Libertarian Joe Kennedy, who some have suggested might split the anti-Coakley vote tomorrow, polled at just 2% in both surveys.

MA-SEN

Research 2000 Poll: Coakley And Brown Tied 48%-48%

Eric Kleefeld | January 18, 2010, 12:48PM

MA Senate Candidates AG Martha Coakley (D) and State Sen. Scott Brown (R)

The new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of the Massachusetts special Senate election has the race as a tie between Democrat Martha Coakley and Republican Scott Brown -- the best independent poll result that Coakley has had in the last few days.

A Research 2000 poll from last week, which was commissioned by the local liberal blog Blue Mass Group, had Coakley with a stronger lead of 49%-41%.

Daily Kos's Laura Clawson writes: "As we keep saying, this one comes down to GOTV."

MA-SEN

Coakley Camp Turns Obama Rally Moment Into New TV Ad

Christina Bellantoni | January 18, 2010, 12:21PM

Democratic Senate candidate Martha Coakley and President Barack Obama

President Obama stars in a new ad for attorney general Martha Coakley (D), who is trailing in the polls before tomorrow's special election for the U.S. Senate in Massachusetts.

After inundating voters in recent days with negative ads, Coakley's Obama spot is positive and features the president saying that she's a fighter. There's no mention of her rival, state Sen. Scott Brown (R)

"We need you on Tuesday," Obama said.

Watch the ad after the jump.

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MA-SEN

Rothenberg Moves MA-SEN To 'Leans Takeover'

Rachel Slajda | January 18, 2010, 12:01PM

Senator-elect Scott Brown (R-MA)

Rothenberg Political Report today moved the Massachusetts Senate special election from a "tossup" rating to "leans takeover."

"Brown is running extremely well with Independents in the Bay State, and unless Democratic turnout exceeds everyone's expectations, Brown is headed for a comfortable win," Rothenberg writes.

Cook Political Report, on the other hand, issued a statement yesterday saying the race is still in their "tossup" column, writing, "This race could still go either way, but we put a finger on the scale for Brown."

The seat, which belonged to the late Ted Kennedy, is now held by interim Sen. Paul Kirk (D). Republican Scott Brown and Democrat Martha Coakley, as well as Libertarian Joe Kennedy, are vying for the seat.

John Kerry

Kerry: 'Tea Baggers' Are 'Revved Up' About MA Senate Race -- But 'It's Not Too Late'

Jillian Rayfield | January 18, 2010, 11:38AM

Sen. John Kerry (D-MA)

Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) today attempted to galvanize support for Democratic senate candidate Martha Coakley by referencing the "tea baggers" who are "revved up" by Republican Scott Brown's momentum in the Massachusetts special election.

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MA-SEN

Could Joe Kennedy Win The Race For Coakley?

Rachel Slajda | January 18, 2010, 11:38AM

MA Senate candidate Joe Kennedy (I)

Not much attention has been paid to Libertarian Joe Kennedy in the Massachusetts Senate race. But might he be the deciding factor in who wins the seat?

As Campaign Diaries points out, polls which include Kennedy (no relation to the late Ted Kennedy) make things look better for Democratic candidate Martha Coakley. Polls that only include Coakley and her Republican rival, Scott Brown, look better for Brown.

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MA-SEN

Brown Files Criminal Complaint Against Mass Dems Mailer Charging He Wants Rape Victims Turned Away

Eric Kleefeld | January 18, 2010, 11:31AM

State Senator Scott Brown (R-MA) on the campaign trail.

The Massachusetts Democratic Party released a hard-hitting mailer against Republican Senate candidate Scott Brown, Greg Sargent reported over the weekend, accusing Brown of wanting the state's hospitals to turn away all of the 1,736 Massachusetts women who were raped in 2008.

"1,736 WOMEN WERE RAPED IN MASSACHUSETTS IN 2008," the mailer said (all capital letters in the original). "SCOTT BROWN WANTS HOSPITALS TO TURN THEM ALL AWAY."

The ad is an extension of a a Coakley TV ad from last week, which attacked Brown for having backed proposed legislation in the state Senate to allow hospitals or hospital personnel to refuse to dispense emergency contraception to rape victims. That ad was also particularly brutal, with the visual of a woman cowering with her head in her hands, presumably meant to signify that the woman was a rape victim being harmed even further by Brown's policies.

So is the claim true, or not? The short answer is that Brown did not want hospitals to turn away rape victims en masse, refusing to provide any and all care. He did want to guarantee them the legal ability to refuse to provide emergency contraception. This was presented accurately in the Coakley TV ad, but is being seriously twisted around in this state Dem mailer.

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Health Care

Plan B: Democrats Consider How To Pass Health Care If Coakley Loses

Brian Beutler | January 18, 2010, 10:27AM

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV)

A new way forward on health care is gaining some traction among Democrats, who are preparing for the possibility that Democrat Martha Coakley will lose her bid to replace Ted Kennedy in the Senate, costing Democrats their 60th vote, which they'll need to overcome the filibuster.

The House has been preparing to tweak the Senate bill with a package of amendments based on a deal reached last week with organized labor, send it back to the upper chamber for final passage, and claim victory. But Coakley could well lose her race, depriving Democrats of the 60th vote they'd need to overcome a filibuster, and that unthinkable possibility is forcing party leaders to consider a Plan B.

As I noted last week, the House could simply pass the Senate bill unchanged, and Obama could sign reform into law. As recently as last week, a number of high-profile Democrats were saying that would never fly. But many are now suggesting that the House might still pull through, if House members are promised that the deal they agreed to last week will be passed separately--and quickly--through the filibuster-proof budget reconciliation process.

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Scott Brown

Brown Spokesman: 'He Doesn't Believe' That Obama Was Born Out Of Wedlock

Eric Kleefeld | January 18, 2010, 10:24AM

President Obama and State Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA)

Massachusetts Republican Senate candidate Scott Brown's campaign is distancing itself from comments he made in 2008, which we reported on over the weekend, in which Brown expressed doubts over whether Barack Obama was born in wedlock -- and is declaring that any idea that he might believe otherwise is a lie.

Said Brown spokesman Eric Fehrnstom told Greg Sargent: "He doesn't believe that. This is more desperate campaigning from Martha Coakley. When she isn't calling for higher taxes, she's making things up about Scott Brown."

For the record, Brown was debating another guest on a regional news show during the 2008 election, when a discussion came up of Bristol Palin's pregnancy. Brown pointed out that Obama's mother had him when she was 18. The other guest said "And married." Brown then replied, "Well, I don't know about that," and chuckled.

2010 elections

Massachusetts Voters Deluged With Calls From Nation's Political Activists

Christina Bellantoni | January 18, 2010, 9:46AM

Women at a switchboard

Out-of-staters descended on Massachusetts this weekend, flooding the Bay State with money and manpower in the final days of the special election to replace the late Sen. Ted Kennedy.

In a bit of a shift from other big elections, activists in both parties are dialing in to help as the race is down-to-the-wire and closer than either party would like.

Administration staffers and Capitol Hill types flocked to phone banks in D.C. to dial in for attorney general Martha Coakley (D) while Republicans across the country rallied to help state Sen. Scott Brown (R).

Former George W. Bush adviser Karl Rove told his nearly 100,000 followers yesterday, "#RETWEETTHISIF You want to help Scott Brown but don't live in MA." He sent out a link to the Brown campaign's Web site allowing for supporters to "call from home."

Arkansas Democrats asked their supporters to "Help Win the Massachusetts Senate Seat," blasting out a link to the DNC's Organizing for America phone banking site which also says Democrats can "make calls from home."

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MA-SEN

Pajamas Media's New Outlier Poll: Coakley Making Up Ground Fast?

Evan McMorris-Santoro | January 18, 2010, 9:40AM

MA Senate candidates State Sen. Scott Brown (R) and AG Martha Coakley (D)

Pajamas Media has published another poll in the Massachusetts Senate race that differs significantly from others in in the field on the final days of the race. But unlike the last Pajamas Media outlier, this poll shows Martha Coakley (D) with more momentum than the polls from other firms.

The Pajamas Media poll from Friday -- which produced more than a little consternation from readers when we posted it -- showed Scott Brown (R) ahead by 15 points, 54-39. The new Pajamas Media poll, taken yesterday afternoon, shows Coakley has cut that lead to 10, 52-42. Other polls over the weekend from PPP (D) and the Merriman River Group also show Brown ahead, but the PPP shows Brown with the momentum.

MA-SEN

Coakley, Dems Jump On Brown Staffers Story

Rachel Slajda | January 18, 2010, 9:26AM

MA Senate Candidates AG Martha Coakley (D) and State Sen. Scott Brown (R)

Last week, TPMDC reported that Massachusetts Senate candidate Scott Brown (R) is paying his campaign staff as "independent contractors," meaning they're responsible for paying their own payroll taxes and health insurance.

Brown's opponent, Martha Coakley (D), and other groups have jumped on the story, attacking Brown for not providing health insurance to his staffers.

"We already knew that Scott Brown didn't want to make health insurance more affordable for Massachusetts families and businesses. Now we learn that he won't even make health insurance available for his own staff. If he won't stand up for the people he employs, how could we ever trust him to stand up for us?" Coakley said in a statement.

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Tea Party

Tea Party Group Backs Brown, Pressures Third Party Candidate To Drop Out Of Mass. Senate Race

Brian Beutler | January 18, 2010, 8:48AM

MA Senate candidate Joe Kennedy (I)

The Massachusetts Tea Party is working behind the scenes to make sure Scott Brown doesn't lose votes to...a libertarian candidate, beloved by many in the Tea Party movement.

A mostly overlooked factor in the special election to fill Ted Kennedy's seat in Massachusetts is that there's a third party candidate in the race--libertarian Joe Kennedy (no relation to Ted)--who, though far behind in the polls, conservatives fear could be the Republicans' Ralph Nader on Tuesday. So in the past several days, tea party protesters, and others on the far right have organized a letter writing campaign to pressure Kennedy to drop out of the race and endorse GOP hopeful Scott Brown.

"The Massachusetts Tea Party movement is banding together to contact Joe Kennedy and ask him to step out of next Tuesday's Senate race," reads a Tea Party email obtained by TPMDC. (The Massachusetts Tea Party is part of the national Tea Party Patriots organization.)

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MA-SEN

Final PPP Poll From MA-Sen: Brown 51, Coakley 46

Evan McMorris-Santoro | January 17, 2010, 11:08PM

MA Senate Candidates AG Martha Coakley (D) and State Sen. Scott Brown (R)

The final poll from PPP (D) in the Massachusetts Senate race shows Republican Scott Brown with a five-point lead less than 48 hours before voters head to the polls. Brown leads Democrat Martha Coakley 51-46 in the poll, with four percent of respondents undecided.

The PPP poll seems to confirm what political observers and other recent polling has suggested in the final weeks of the race: Brown has the momentum to win, but the race is still to close to call.

PPP polled 1,231 likely voters in Massachusetts over the weekend. The special election to replace Ted Kennedy in the Senate will be held on Jan. 19.

Martha Coakley

Does Scott Brown Think Barack Obama Was Born To Out Of Wedlock Mother?

Brian Beutler | January 16, 2010, 8:23PM

Senator-elect Scott Brown (R-MA)

Check out this video, courtesy of Blue Mass Group, in which, after praising Sarah Palin, Massachusetts Senate hopeful Scott Brown appears to suggest he thinks Barack Obama was born out of wedlock -- a false claim which has been advanced frequently by members of the 'birther' movement.

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MA-SEN

Poll: Brown Leads Coakley By 3

Evan McMorris-Santoro | January 16, 2010, 1:11PM

MA Senate candidates Martha Coakley (D) and Scott Brown (R).

A new poll released today by ARG shows the Massachusetts Senate race to be a dead heat three days before the special election. Republican Scott Brown led Democrat Martha Coakley by three points, 48-45, among 600 likely voters surveyed by ARG on Thursday and Friday. The poll's margin of error is 4%.

Democrats are going all out this weekend to boost support and drive turnout for Coakley as political observers increasingly see the race slipping away from her in the final days. President Obama is heading to Massachusetts to headline a rally for Coakley tomorrow afternoon, having already recorded a robo-call for Coakley last week. Republicans, meanwhile, are dumping millions into the state in support of Brown, hoping for a surprise upset in the race to fill Ted Kennedy's old seat in the Senate.

MA-SEN

Pajamas Media Poll Puts Scott Brown Ahead By 15

Evan McMorris-Santoro | January 15, 2010, 6:17PM

State Senator Scott Brown (R-MA)

A new poll sponsored by Pajamas Media -- and conducted by a Republican pollster -- shows Scott Brown (R) with a commanding lead in the race to replace Ted Kennedy. According to the poll out today, Brown leads Martha Coakley (D) by 15 points, 54-39.

The poll was conducted yesterday by the Republican firm CrossTarget, which used automated phone calls (the preferred method of pollsters like PPP and Rasmussen) to contact what the firm said were 946 likely voters.

The poll is dramatically different from other recent numbers, which have shown the race as essentially a dead heat. Other polls have shown one candidate or the other ahead, but not by much -- Brown had a four point lead in a Boston Herald poll out this morning, while Coakley led a Reseach2000 poll sponsored by a left-leaning Massachusetts blog this week by eight.

Bill Clinton

Bill Clinton In Massachusetts: Don't Let The Tea Parties Appropriate The Boston Tea Party

Eric Kleefeld | January 15, 2010, 6:04PM

Former President Bill Clinton and State AG Martha Coakley (D-MA)

Former President Bill Clinton campaigned today for Democratic Senate candidate Martha Coakley, making an appeal to the state's progressive voters to turn out to vote on Tuesday -- and to not let the right claim the mantle of the Boston Tea Party.

"The reason these polls are all over the place is because no one knows who's going to show up," said Bill, the Boston Herald reports.

"I came here to tell the people of Massachusetts this: This country's revolution was born in Massachusetts," Bill added. "The Revolutionary War was first won here. The war was over here years before it was finally finished. It started with the Boston Tea Party, and the right wing Republicans have appropriated that on the premise the tea party was against government."

Instead, Bill put forward this key difference, a seeming attack on the Republicans: "What they were against was abuse of power."

MA-SEN

In MA-Sen Race That's All About Health Care, Is GOPer Brown Providing Coverage to Staff?

Christina Bellantoni | January 15, 2010, 5:19PM

Senator-elect Scott Brown (R-MA)

The campaign staffers helping Scott Brown for U.S. Senate are being paid as independent contractors rather than as employees and are responsible for paying their own taxes and, presumably, health care coverage. The contractors designation applies from the top tier to lower level staffers who appear to be doing grunt advance work for Brown events and handling volunteers and press.

The decision to treat staffers as independent contractors could save the campaign money on taxes and benefits, experts TPMDC spoke with said, although the precise rationale for the move remains unclear.

TPMDC reviewed campaign finance reports showing more than a dozen Brown staffers being paid for "strategy consulting," an unusual label for low-level aides. We asked the campaign about the designation and whether they have paid payroll taxes.

Campaign spokesman Felix Browne told TPMDC the campaign is aided by "volunteers and paid staff who are compensated as independent contractors in accordance with the Massachusetts independent contractor law."

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Barney Frank

Barney Frank: 'If Scott Brown Wins, It'll Kill The Health Bill'

Eric Kleefeld | January 15, 2010, 4:34PM

MA Senate candidate Scott Brown (R) and Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA)

Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) made a very blunt statement to reporters today, about just how serious the stakes are in the Massachusetts special Senate election between Democrat Martha Coakley and Republican Scott Brown.

Said Frank: "If Scott Brown wins, it'll kill the health bill."

If Brown is elected, he would be the 41st member of the Republican caucus, giving the minority party the power to block even a unanimous Democratic caucus of 59 members. Since no Republicans are working with the Obama administration on health care, that would shut down the process altogether.

MA-SEN

Tea Party Nation To Rhode Island Members: Cross Border For Brown This Weekend

Christina Bellantoni | January 15, 2010, 3:55PM

Anti-health care reform protester and MA Senate candidate Scott Brown (R)

The Tea Party Nation has banned "liberal trolls" from their Web site but members have no problem crossing state lines to help Republican State Sen. Scott Brown in the final hours of the race for U.S. Senate in Massachusetts.

Tea Party Nation member Marina Peterson sent a message today to the group's mailing list addressed to "Rhode Islander's" (sic) and asking them to help Brown defeat Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley.

"The momentum is high!! Let's give this our all!!" writes Peterson, adding that volunteers this weekend can canvass neighborhoods or use the automated phone call system, which make it "easy to leave voice mails automatically and easy to record voters responses - making it fun."

Brown "could be the 41st vote needed to frustrate Harry Reid, Barrack Obama (sic) and their attempt to shove socialism down our throats!" she writes.

Peterson also references Rep. Patrick Kennedy's reelection campaign in Rhode Island, saying that a Brown win Tuesday would, after all, give Kennedy's Republican challenger John Loughlin free national media.

Excerpts from the email obtained by TPMDC as a member of the mailing list, after the jump. It's slightly edited to remove emails and phone numbers for the campaign.

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DSCC

DSCC Scrubs Ad With World Trade Center Photo, Posts New Version (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | January 15, 2010, 2:59PM

MA Senate Candidates AG Martha Coakley (D) and State Sen. Scott Brown (R)

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has taken down and then repost its new attack ad against Scott Brown in the Massachusetts special Senate election -- minus a background photo that turned out to be the World Trade Center.

The ad is now exactly the same as before, except that the Trade Center visual (which was not immediately obvious, as it was an old stock photo taken from a weird angle, and did not appear to have anything to do with 9/11) has been replaced.

Republicans were quick to pounce on the ad. Rudy Giuliani released a statement: "Martha Coakley must immediately denounce the partisan political television advertisement sponsored by her Democrat allies that inexplicably uses images of the World Trade Center to unfairly attack Scott Brown. This is among the most desperate campaign tactics I have ever seen. Martha Coakley and her Democrat allies owe an apology to the families of the nearly three thousand Americans killed on September 11th."

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Scott Brown

New Brown Radio Ad: 'People On The Street' (AUDIO)

Eric Kleefeld | January 15, 2010, 2:05PM

State Senator Scott Brown (R-MA)

Scott Brown has a new radio ad in the Massachusetts special Senate election, featuring people describing why they support him.

"I was raised a Democrat so was my family and the Democrats of today are not the Democrats I grew up with and I vote for the candidate I don't vote for the party," says a man. A woman follows: "I'm supporting Scott because I don't want people down in DC making decisions about my health care. I want to keep my health care. I want to keep it for my children and my parents."

The prominent Boston accents of the voters picked out for the ad seem to be a clear play for working-class voters in this Democratic state, who usually wouldn't even think of voting for a Republican.

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MA-SEN

Obama To Campaign For Coakley In MA-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | January 15, 2010, 1:52PM

Sen. Candidate Martha Coakley (D-MA) and President Obama

President Obama will campaign in Massachusetts for Martha Coakley on Sunday, White House and Democratic Party sources tell TPMDC.

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs is set to announce the news at today's press briefing, This past Monday, Gibbs had said that there were no plans to visit Massachusetts.

The polls have been all over the place on this election, but are in general agreement in the sense that the turnout model matters very seriously. If younger voters and more committed Democrats turn out, Coakley will win. If older and less Democratic voters make up a greater part of the electorate, Republican nominee Scott Brown will win. Obama's involvement could potentially make the difference for Coakley in turning out his natural support base -- and if it doesn't, expect a lot of talk in the press about how Obama couldn't win the race.

Late Update: As expected, Gibbs announced that Obama will stop in Boston Sunday after a visit to a Washington D.C. church earlier in the day.

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MA-SEN

Dems Worry In MA-Sen: Martha Coakley, They Just Aren't That Into You

Christina Bellantoni | January 15, 2010, 12:22PM

MA AG Martha Coakley (D-MA) supporters.

In a winning campaign every move is brilliant, and in a losing campaign every move is a blunder. But Democrats caught off guard by the tight race in Massachusetts to replace liberal icon Sen. Ted Kennedy insist that the problem lies in large part with their candidate, Attorney General Martha Coakley.

Some of the Coakley criticism is specific: Scott Brown was up on the television airwaves with positive, defining ads earlier, and he held more campaign events in December after winning the nomination. But some of the complaints center on Coakley's personality and speaking style, which convey insufficient enthusiasm.

"She is not someone who is likely to go the pub and buy everyone a round, but neither is John Kerry," said Coakley supporter Lawrence DiCara, a former Boston city council member and veteran of Democratic politics in the Bay State.

"She's much more like John Kerry than she is like Ted Kennedy," he said.

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MA-SEN

Obama Records Robocall For Coakley (AUDIO)

Eric Kleefeld | January 15, 2010, 12:03PM

Sen. Candidate Martha Coakley (D-MA) and President Obama

President Obama has recorded a robocall for Democratic candidate Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts special Senate election, imploring recipients to get and out for Coakley, and make sure everyone else will know there's an election, too.

"We know where Martha Coakley stands," Obama says. "As your attorney general, Martha has taken on Wall Street's schemes, insurance company abuses and big polluters on your behalf. She represents the best progressive values of Massachusetts. She'll be your voice and my ally."

"But a lot of people don't even realize there is an election on Tuesday to fill the unexpired term of Ted Kennedy. They don't realize why it's so important. So please, come out to vote for Martha Coakley. And make sure everyone you know understands the stakes for their families, Massachusetts and our country."

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MA-SEN

Brown Wants Obama To Stay Out Of MA-SEN Race

Rachel Slajda | January 15, 2010, 10:47AM

President Obama and State Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA)

Republican candidate and state Sen. Scott Brown doesn't want President Obama to come to Massachusetts to campaign for his opponent, state Attorney General Martha Coakley.

"He should stay away and let Martha and I discuss the issues one on one," Brown told the Boston Herald this week. "The machine is coming out of the woodwork to get her elected. They're bringing in outsiders, and we don't need them."

The White House has said Obama will not campaign for Coakley in the Bay State, but he did cut a web ad and send an email to supporters urging them to get out and support the Democrat.

MA-SEN

DSCC Ad: Scott Brown 'Opposes President Obama's Plan To Reform Wall Street' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | January 15, 2010, 10:42AM

State Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) campaigning.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has a new TV ad in the Massachusetts special election, attacking Republican candidate Scott Brown for opposing President Obama's proposed fees on major financial institutions, and tying him to Wall Street.

"Republican Scott Brown opposes President Obama's plan to reform Wall Street," the announcer says. "That's right, Scott Brown actually opposes the plan to crack down on the greed and corruption that nearly destroyed our economy."

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MA-SEN

Vicki Kennedy In Coakley Ad: She Fights For The People, Just Like Ted Did (VIDEO)

Jillian Rayfield | January 15, 2010, 10:20AM

Vicki Kennedy has released an ad in support of Martha Coakley's bid for the Massachusetts Senate seat of her late husband Sen. Ted Kennedy.

Read more »

MA-SEN

Poll: Brown Takes The Lead In MA SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | January 15, 2010, 8:55AM

MA Senate Candidates AG Martha Coakley (D) and State Sen. Scott Brown (R)

The latest poll in the Massachusetts Senate race shows Scott Brown (R) taking a slim lead over Martha Coakley (D) as the clock ticks down in the special election to replace Ted Kennedy in the Senate.

The poll, conducted by Suffolk University Jan. 11-13, shows Brown leading Coakley by four, 50-46. It's the latest in a string of polls showing the race is too close to call less than a week before voters go to the polls Jan. 19. The Suffolk poll has a 4% margin of error.

Yesterday, both the Cook Political Report and the Rothenberg Political Report officially listed the race as a "toss up." National political forces have shifted their attentions to Massachusetts, with both Brown and Coakley backers dispatching millions in money and resources to the state in the final days of the campaign.

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MA-SEN

Cook Political Report Now Calls MA SEN A 'Toss-Up'

Evan McMorris-Santoro | January 14, 2010, 5:15PM

MA Senate candidates Martha Coakley (D) and Scott Brown (R).

The venerated Cook Political Report followed the Rothenberg Political Report in calling the Massachusetts special Senate election a "toss up" today. The move is based on what the staff at Cook write is "unbelievable intensity" among supporters of Scott Brown (R).

The publication sounds as surprised as anyone that the race to replace Ted Kennedy in the Senate has become such a tough one for Democrats, and though it's now listed as anyone's to win, Cook still says "at the end of the day it's unlikely" that Martha Coakley (D) "ends up losing" next week.

"After all, no Republican Senate candidate has won in the Bay State since 1972," Cook writes.

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MA-SEN

In New Ad, Scott Brown Shakes Hands In Southie (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | January 14, 2010, 3:33PM

Senate candidate Scott Brown (R-MA).

Republican candidate Scott Brown has a new TV ad in the Massachusetts special election for Senate, taking a positive tone by showing the candidate meeting voters in the working class neighborhood of South Boston.

"If you want someone who's gonna lower your taxes, and bring common sense back to Washington, then join with me," Brown says.

Democrats have been coming down hard to stop Brown's surge in the polls, mainly by running a stream of negative ads highlighting Brown's staunch Republican record in this Democratic state. The Brown campaign apparently thinks that a positive pitch is currently the way to go.

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Ted Kennedy

Dems Jump On Kennedy Legacy And It Yields Big Cash For Coakley (VIDEO)

Christina Bellantoni | January 14, 2010, 3:25PM

The late Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-MA)

Sen. Ted Kennedy's legacy is going a long way for Democrats aiming to keep their 60-seat majority and pass health care in the coming days.

Democratic sources tell TPMDC the Vicki Kennedy email has now raised $883,000 for Martha Coakley's bid to replace the late Sen. Kennedy in Massachusetts.

As we have reported, Senate Democrats from across the country blasted out the email from Kennedy's widow yesterday asking for donations to help Coakley (D) win the special election next Tuesday.

Also today, Senate Democrats released a new tribute video in honor of Kennedy's legacy and career-long fight for health care.

Read more »

MA-SEN

Rothenberg Changes MA-SEN To 'Toss-Up'

Rachel Slajda | January 14, 2010, 2:49PM

MA Senate Candidates AG Martha Coakley (D) and State Sen. Scott Brown (R)

The Rothenberg Political Report has changed its rating of the Massachusetts Senate race to "toss up."

Rothenberg had the special election listed as "narrow advantage for the incumbent party."

"This race has become about change, President Obama and Democratic control of all of the levers of power in Washington, D.C. Brown has 'won' the 'free media' over the past few days, and if he continues to do so, he will win the election," reads the report.

"Late Democratic efforts to demonize Republican Scott Brown, to make the race into a partisan battle and to use the Kennedy name to drive Democratic voters to the polls could still work. But the advertising clutter in the race works against them, and voters often tune out late messages, which can seem desperate."

Barack Obama

Obama Mobilizing Volunteers For Coakley In MA-SEN Race (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | January 14, 2010, 2:31PM

Sen. Candidate Martha Coakley (D-MA) and President Obama

President Obama has posted a new video on his campaign's YouTube account, and sent an e-mail to his very sizable supporter list, urging his supporters to help Democratic candidate Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts special Senate election. He also points them to a Web page where they can sign up to volunteer.

"In Washington, I'm fighting to curb the abuses of a health insurance industry that routinely denies care," Obama says in the video. "I'm fighting for financial reform to stop Wall Street from playing havoc with our economy. I'm fighting to create a new energy economy. And it's clear now that the outcome of these and other fights will probably rest on one vote in the United States Senate. That's why what happens Tuesday in Massachusetts is so important."

Obama also explains the stakes in this special election: "She represents the best progressive values of Massachusetts. She'll be your voice, and my ally. Which is why the opponents of change are pouring money into your state. They believe that by defeating Martha and replacing Ted Kennedy with her Republican opponent, they'll be in a position to tie up the Senate and prevent a vote on health insurance reform, financial reform, and other issues so important to working families in Massachusetts and the nation."

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SEIU

SEIU Drops $665K On Anti-Brown TV Ad in Massachusetts

Brian Beutler | January 14, 2010, 2:03PM

Service Employees International Union

How concerned are Democratic interest groups that Sen. Ted Kennedy's Senate seat in Massachusetts might go to a Republican? Let's put it this way. This week, the Service Employees International Union spent $665,000 on the below ad, attacking Scott Brown, the Republican challenger to Democrat Martha Coakley.

With polls showing the Coakley/Brown race too close to call in deep-blue Massachusetts, Democrats are sweating, dropping hundreds of thousands of dollars, spearheading myriad fundraising drives, and dispatching a great deal of personnel to the state, to assure she seals the deal. SEIU is just as concerned.

And, as I reported earlier today, if she doesn't, it could doom health care reform

MA-SEN

Big Tea Party Group Spends $150K On New Ad For Scott Brown (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | January 14, 2010, 1:52PM

Senate candidate Scott Brown (R-MA).

The Tea Party Express, a division of the conservative Our Country Deserves Better PAC, has announced a new TV ad in the Massachusetts special Senate election, and that they're putting $150,000 behind it.

"The big-government politicians in Washington have failed us: Bank failures, skyrocketing unemployment, out of control deficits, higher taxes," the announcer says. "It's time to bring some sanity back to WAshington -- and that's why we at the Tea Party Express endorse Scott Brown for U.S. Senate."

So what's going to happen in this Tuesday's election? Will Boston vote for, or against, the Tea Party?

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Health Care

House Dems To Coakley: Don't Lose If You Want Health Care Reform

Brian Beutler | January 14, 2010, 12:39PM

Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL)

Leading House progressives say that if Democrat Martha Coakley loses her bid for Senate in Massachusetts next week, that may well be it for health care reform.

"I believe that to be true," said Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL), House progressives' point person on health care reform. "I think there are enough people who see such severe problem with the [Senate] legislation," that they can't vote for it under any circumstances.

In a brief interview with TPM, I asked Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-NY) whether he could be persuaded to vote for the Senate bill if it became clear that that was the only way to pass reform. "I would not vote for the Senate bill as it is, period," he told me.

The other option would be to squeeze a series of votes in the House and Senate through a narrow window between election day next Tuesday, and the day Scott Brown (hypothetically) is sworn in.

As I noted earlier this week, if Coakley loses her election next week, leaving Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid one shy of the 60 votes he needs to pass a revised, final health care bill, Democrats could still advance reform by passing the Senate bill in the House word for word. But that option may exist only in theory.

MoveOn

MoveOn Announces $600K Raised For Coakley

Eric Kleefeld | January 14, 2010, 12:33PM

Massachusetts Atty. Gen. Martha Coakley (D)

MoveOn and its members have been pitching in to help Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts Senate race, with the group announcing that they have so far raised $600,000 for her campaign.

This follows a money-bomb fundraiser by Republican candidate Scott Brown earlier this week, which brought in $1.3 million.

Democrats have been working to make up the difference. In addition to this $600,000 batch of contributions to Coakley's campaign, the fundraising letter from Ted Kennedy's widow Vicki Kennedy brought in over half a million dollars. There has also been significant spending from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the League of Conservation Voters, and SEIU.

MA-SEN

Poll: Coakley Up By Eight Points In MA-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | January 14, 2010, 12:28PM

MA Senate candidates Martha Coakley (D) and Scott Brown (R).

The new Research 2000 poll of the Massachusetts special Senate election, commissioned by the local liberal blog Blue Mass Group, give Democrat Martha Coakley a lead of 49%-41% over Republican Scott Brown, with a ±4% margin of error.

From the internals, Coakley wins Democrats by 82%-12%, Brown wins Republicans by 85%-7%, and Brown wins independents by 49%-36%. If Coakley has indeed solidified Democratic support and is winning even just a significant minority of independents, that should be enough to put her over the finish line in this heavily Dem state.

This is the first publicly-released poll conducted entirely after the final debate from this past Monday.

MA-SEN

With Health Care On The Line, Campaign Workers Swarm MA-Sen Race

Christina Bellantoni | January 14, 2010, 12:05PM

MA Senate Candidate Scott Brown (R), the late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) and State AG and Senate Candidate Martha Coakley (D)

Five weeks ago pollsters, pundits and politicians alike thought the special election for U.S. Senate in Massachusetts would likely be a snoozer. But as the battle over health care heated up in Washington and in the final days before Tuesday's election, the race has become a proxy for the national health care debate and one that Democrats could lose.

The bill Democrats have been working on for six months hangs in the balance and Republicans are flooding the zone in hopes of a symbolic victory to kick off the 2010 election year.

Sources tell TPMDC the battleplan laid out for both sides in December had to be scrapped as the race between Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) and state Sen. Scott Brown (R) grew tighter. Since the final health care deal is so close and Brown is vowing to be the 41st vote to block it, all of the tension and national energy in that fight have channeled to the Bay State.

So have Senate staffers, top political consultants from both parties and outside organizations that are pumping money to air television advertising at unprecedented levels.

Read more »

MA-SEN

League Of Conservation Voters Spending $350K On New Ad In MA-SEN Race (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | January 14, 2010, 11:42AM

MA Senate candidates State Sen. Scott Brown (R) and AG Martha Coakley (D)

The League of Conservation Voters has a new ad in the Massachusetts special Senate election, putting $350,000 into the effort to help Democratic nominee Martha Coakley beat Republican Scott Brown in this usually-Democratic state.

"Our economy needs help, but Scott Brown would go back to the same Bush-Cheney policies that caused the crisis," the announcer says. "Brown opposes the American Clean Energy and Security Act that creates new energy jobs. Brown opposes the plan that reduces our dependence on foreign oil, and makes America safer."

"On Tuesday, we can say 'yes' to clean energy jobs and greater energy independence, by electing Martha Coakley as our new Senator."

Read more »

MA-SEN

Specter Joins Coakley Email Party

Christina Bellantoni | January 14, 2010, 8:59AM

Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA)

Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) asked his campaign list to donate to Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley, joining his Senate colleagues with a plea to keep Sen. Ted Kennedy's seat in the Democratic column Tuesday.

"Martha is working to carry on Senator Kennedy's legacy on vital issues like health care reform," Specter told his supporters. "We need a Senator from Massachusetts who is ready to join the fight for health care reform."

Presumably Specter, who switched and became the party's 60th Democrat last year, has a lot of Republicans on his mailing list.

MA-SEN

CORRECTED: Brown Says He's Unfamiliar with Tea Partiers;
Campaign Pix Say Otherwise

Josh Marshall | January 13, 2010, 11:36PM

Correction: State Sen. Scott Brown did not use the word "unfamiliar," that was how the Boston Globe characterized his remarks. But after watching video of the press conference where Brown was asked about the tea party movement, it appears he actually was unclear about the premise of the reporter's question, not the tea party movement itself.

On Wednesday, Republican senate candidate Scott Brown told reporters in Massachusetts that he was "unfamiliar" with the "Tea Party movement," despite receiving the endorsement of a key national Tea Party group which is currently raising money for his campaign to replace the late Sen. Ted Kennedy.

But Brown's claim to be unfamiliar with the Tea Party movement is belied by photographs produced by his own campaign.

Late this evening, TPM Reader NM alerted us to the fact that Brown's official campaign Flickr stream contains photographs of the candidate addressing Tea Party groups on the campaign trail only months ago.

Read more »

2010 elections

Rubio Endorses Scott Brown And Asks Supporters To Make 15 Calls For Candidate

Christina Bellantoni | January 13, 2010, 6:58PM

Former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio (R-FL)

Republican State Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) has another national supporter on his side - conservative darling Marco Rubio (R-FL), who calls next week's Senate race in Massachusetts "extremely important."

Rubio, who is challenging Gov. Charlie Crist in a Republican primary for the U.S. Senate, has earned attention from national conservatives who think he is the right kind of candidate to help the party reclaim power.

Rubio asks his supporters to back Brown through fundraising and volunteer phone calls because the Republican candidate "represents the vote we need to stop the radical Obama-Reid-Pelosi government health care hijacking now being plotted in Washington."

The full email after the jump.

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MA-SEN

House Dems' Committee: No, We're Not Buying Ads In Massachusetts Senate Race

Eric Kleefeld | January 13, 2010, 6:43PM

MA Senate candidates State Sen. Scott Brown (R) and AG Martha Coakley (D)

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee -- the Dems' campaign arm for House races -- is denying an allegation from a right-wing blogger that they are spending money on the Senate race in Massachusetts.

Earlier today, Erick Erickson alleged that the DCCC had purchased advertising for the Senate race, declaring it "rather unheard of" and stating that it had campaign finance implications. "Why would House Democrats be spending their precious resources on someone running for the United States Senate?" Erickson wrote. "Because they know it would destroy Nancy Pelosi's agenda to have Scott Brown in the Senate."

"The DCCC did not purchase any advertising for this Senate race," DCCC spokesman Ryan Rudominer told TPMDC. The DCCC did send out an e-mail to its supporter list, asking people to sign up to volunteer for Democratic candidate Martha Coakley. However, there is no link to donate money to Coakley, and the DCCC says they've not bought advertising.

MA-SEN

CORRECTED: Brown: Tea Party Movement? What Tea Party Movement?

Christina Bellantoni | January 13, 2010, 6:26PM

Senate candidate Scott Brown (R-MA).

Correction: State Sen. Scott Brown did not use the word "unfamiliar," that was how the Boston Globe characterized his remarks. But after watching video of the press conference where Brown was asked about the tea party movement, it appears he actually was unclear about the premise of the reporter's question, not the tea party movement itself.

State Sen. Scott Brown told reporters in Massachusetts today he was "unfamiliar" with the "Tea Party movement," despite earning the endorsement from one of the groups who is raising money for his campaign to win the U.S. Senate seat Tuesday.

According to the Boston Globe, Brown called himself a "Scott Brown Republican" that shouldn't be labeled conservative, liberal or moderate.

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Scott Brown

Brown On His Health Care Flip-Flop: Mass. Plan Totally Different From Obama Plan

Eric Kleefeld | January 13, 2010, 5:04PM

Scott Brown, the Republican candidate in this Tuesday's special Senate election in Massachusetts, appeared just now on Neil Cavuto's Fox News show, promoting his candidacy and opposing the Democrats' health care program -- and explaining why he supported health care reform in the Massachusetts state Senate.

Cavuto asked Brown why he'd supported an expansion of state involvement in health care, but he's opposing the same thing now. (As we noted, the Massachusetts health care plan passed by the state legislature and signed by then-Gov. Mitt Romney is similar to the Democratic federal plan in many ways, including the individual mandate to purchase health insurance.)

"No, that's not true, they're two different programs. What we have here is a free-market enterprise where we're providing insurance in various levels to people in Massachusetts," said Brown. "The plans in Washington are a one-size-fits-all plan that's gonna cost almost a trillion-plus dollars, raise taxes, at a time when we don't need it. Why are we subsidizing, why would we pay more, for something we already have? It makes no sense."

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Vicki Kennedy

Vicki Kennedy Pens Fundraising E-mail For Coakley

Eric Kleefeld | January 13, 2010, 3:49PM

Vicki Kennedy and Sen. Ted Kennedy at the Democratic National Committee in August 2008.

In the latest effort to drum up the Democratic base in the Massachusetts special Senate election, the campaign of Democratic nominee Martha Coakley has sent out a fundraising e-mail from Ted Kennedy's widow Vicki Kennedy, who writes about the importance of keeping this seat in Democratic hands.

"The importance of having a voice and a vote that you can count on in Washington has never been more evident than during this ongoing health care debate. And we're going to need every vote again," Vicki Kennedy writes.

"Ted fought for national health care reform for 40 years. He believed that every American deserved their chance at the American dream, but that as long as an illness or preexisting condition could bankrupt an American family, that great goal could never become a reality. We need Martha Coakley to continue our shared fight for national health reform, to reduce costs for businesses and families and increase coverage in Massachusetts and throughout this country. This race will be very close and we need you to get us to victory."

Read more »

MA-SEN

Scott Brown's Daughters In New Radio Ad: Coakley Saying 'Hurtful And Dishonest Things About Our Dad'

Eric Kleefeld | January 13, 2010, 3:31PM

MA Senate Candidates AG Martha Coakley (D) and State Sen. Scott Brown (R)

Republican candidate Scott Brown has a new radio ad in the Massachusetts special Senate election, featuring his two daughters Ayla and Arianna Brown, blasting Democratic candidate Martha Coakley for attacking their dad.

This ad would appear to be a response to Coakley's ad attacking Brown for favoring legislation to allow hospitals to deny emergency contraception to rape victims. Brown himself has already done a TV ad saying Coakley is making false attacks, though he didn't specifically refute anything -- and neither does this new radio spot.

"When he made his decision to run for the United States Senate, we knew it would be a learning experience for our family. We were excited about the family and what our dad could accomplish for the state," said Ayla. "But what we've witnessed and learned from Martha Coakley and her political machine goes against everything we were taught growing up. Martha Coakley and her supporters are saying hurtful and dishonest things about our dad. Their attacks are out of line."

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Health Care

GOP's Would Be Successor to Kennedy Dead Set Against Health Care Reform--He Just Can't Figure Out Why

Brian Beutler | January 13, 2010, 12:58PM

Senate candidate Scott Brown (R-MA).

With Scott Brown (R-MA) positioned to be the guy who can kill health care reform, it's worth taking a look at just what he's said about the issue. Because when it comes right down to it, his reasons for opposing the bill have been so varied and inconsistent that you start to wonder whether even he knows why he's against it. It must be a tricky dance, given that he's running to assume Ted Kennedy's Senate seat in the bluest of blue states. But with Kennedy's signature priority in the balance, you'd think he'd have a solid reason for wanting to bury it.

He doesn't.

Conservatives and Republicans are pouring millions of dollars and thousands of man-hours into a dark horse Senate election in bright-blue Massachusetts because they think that's their last, best hope to kill health care reform. They're not even shy about it. In a fundraising letter, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney told voters "If he is successful, Scott will be the crucial 41st vote against President Obama's healthcare bill when it comes back to the Senate for final passage." And he who plays the piper calls the tune. "I would be proud to be the 41st vote, and go back to the drawing board," Brown boasted in his final debate with Democrat Martha Coakley.

But for all his bluster, there remains no small amount of confusion about why Brown wants to kill the bill. Or at least this bill.

Read more »

MA-SEN

AFL-CIO Mailer: Brown 'Wants To Make History Repeat Itself' From The Bush Years

Eric Kleefeld | January 13, 2010, 12:00PM

MA Senate Candidates AG Martha Coakley (D) and State Sen. Scott Brown (R)

The Massachusetts AFL-CIO is mobilizing in the Massachusetts Senate special election, with a new mailer get-out-the-vote effort to stop Republican candidate Scott Brown, and elect Democratic candidate Martha Coakley.

The new mailer warns voters that Brown would create a repeat of the Bush years: "Tax cuts for the wealthy. Economic deregulation. Party-line votes. Scott Brown wants to make history repeat itself."

In an e-mail to reporters, national AFL-CIO spokesman Eddie Vale claimed that the AFL-CIO has tens of thousands of volunteers who will be phone-banking and canvassing through the election, and the unions will also be doing robocalls.

Read more »

DSCC

Democrats Fear Trends In MA-Sen Race Spell Trouble For Fall Elections

Christina Bellantoni | January 13, 2010, 9:57AM

State Atty. Gen. Martha Coakley (D-MA)

Progressives frustrated with a lack of action in Washington despite a strong majority are pointing at the close race for the U.S. Senate in Massachusetts with a stern "I told you so" sentiment.

Polls showing Attorney General Martha Coakley closely matched with state Sen. Scott Brown have shocked national Democrats, who are deploying their full muscle north and spending money in a state that hasn't seen a competitive race for Senate in more than 13 years.

Most campaign-type Democrats think Coakley will pull out a victory Tuesday despite a lackluster campaign and independents and undecideds rapidly slipping from their column, but some openly warn that a close race in the Bay State is a real warning sign for November's mid-term elections.

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MA-SEN

SEIU Ad: Scott Brown Votes 96% Republican, Is Backed By Pro-Palin Tea Parties (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | January 13, 2010, 9:25AM

Senate candidate Scott Brown (R-MA).

The Service Employees International Union is up with a new ad in the Massachusetts special Senate election, reminding voters in this Democratic state that GOP candidate Scott Brown is a Republican -- and tying him to the Tea Parties and Sarah Palin.

"He calls himself independent, but voted with Republican leadership 96% of the time," the announcer says. "Brown has repeatedly opposed a woman's right to choose. And now the Globe says Brown expresses skepticism that climate change is being caused by humans."

"No wonder Brown's campaign is being supported by the same extremist group that backs Sarah Palin."

Read more »

MA-SEN

DSCC Ad Attacks Brown: 'Don't Let Him Take Us -- Or Our Kids -- For A Ride' (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | January 13, 2010, 8:50AM

Senate candidate Scott Brown (R-MA).

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which has bought $567,000 in TV ad time for the Massachusetts special Senate election, is up with its first attack ad against Republican nominee Scott Brown.

The ad looks to take apart Brown's folksy, populist image, by telling voters to look "under the hood" of the pickup truck that he's been driving around the state. "On health care? Brown wants to be the deciding vote to kill Ted Kennedy's legislation," the announcer says, tying the debate over the health care bill to the legacy of the late Ted Kennedy.

The announcer then says that Brown has voted against funding for education, as well. "That's the real Scott Brown," the announcer concludes, with on-screen text also reminding voters in this Democratic state that Brown is a Republican. "Don't let him take us - or our kids -- for a ride."

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MA-SEN

MA-SEN Race: A Fight To The Finish

Eric Kleefeld | January 12, 2010, 6:32PM

Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), Senate candidate Martha Coakley (D-MA), and President Bill Clinton.

We've hit crunch time. With just a week to go until the special Senate election in Massachusetts, top Democratic Party leaders are descending on the state in an effort to help Martha Coakley pull out the win. And, both sides are raising and spending massive amounts of money in the final push to replace the late Sen. Ted Kennedy.

Massachusetts is getting a mini-stimulus this week, with capital flowing rapidly into the state's economy. Yesterday, of course, Republican Scott Brown conducted a money-bomb fundraiser, claiming to have brought in $1,303,302.50 in one day. Today, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee purchased $567,000 in ad time for the Boston and Springfield markets. Massachusetts Democrats have already spent $288,000 for a race that seemed like a lock just a few days ago.

Massachusetts should be an easy walk for the Democrats. But over the last couple of days, the polls have tightened. According to the latest Rassmusen poll, Brown has pulled to within two points of Coakley, within the margin of error of ±3%. The Democrats have moved into crisis mode, deploying such heavy-weights as former President Bill Clinton and Sen. John Kerry (D-MA). Clinton will headline a rally for Coakley in Boston this Friday at 2 p.m. ET.

Read more »

MA-SEN

Poll: Massachusetts Race A Statistical Dead Heat

Eric Kleefeld | January 12, 2010, 5:05PM

MA Senate candidates Martha Coakley (D) and Scott Brown (R).

The new Rasmussen poll of the Massachusetts Senate special election shows a dead heat between Democrat Martha Coakley and Republican Scott Brown.

The numbers: Coakley 49%, Brown 47%, plus 3% for independent libertarian Joe Kennedy, with a ±3% margin of error. In last week's Rasmussen poll, Coakley led by 50%-41%, with 2% for an unnamed "some other candidate." This new poll is roughly in line with this past weekend's survey from Public Policy Polling (D), which had Brown with a 48%-47%. A Boston Globe poll conducted last week put Coakley up by 15 points, and the Coakley campaign released an internal poll with themselves up by 14 points.

The pollster's analysis makes it clear how much Democrats need to rev up their base: "All polling indicates that a lower turnout is better for the Republican. The new Rasmussen Reports poll shows that Brown is ahead by two percentage points among those who are absolutely certain they will vote. A week ago, he trailed by two among those certain to vote."

MA-SEN

Would Democrats Stall Scott Brown's Swearing-In To Save Health Care?

Rachel Slajda | January 12, 2010, 2:36PM

Senate candidate Scott Brown (R-MA).

If Republican Scott Brown pulls an upset and wins the Massachusetts special election on Jan. 19, Senate Democrats would lose their filibuster-proof 60-seat majority and health care would be all but doomed.

So some, including the Boston Herald, have suggested that Democrats might stall Brown's swearing in until after the final vote on a revised health care bill.

The idea apparently comes from Brown himself. After Interim Sen. Paul Kirk said he would vote for health care reform if it comes to a vote before the new senator is sworn in, Brown fired off a statement claiming Kirk was "suggesting" that Democrats in Boston and Washington "intend to stall the election certification until the health care bill is rammed through Congress."

But can they? Technically, it is up to Senate leadership when they swear in a new senator. But Senate Majority Harry Reid's office says they'll swear in the winner of the Massachusetts election -- whether it's Brown or Attorney General Martha Coakley -- as soon as possible.

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MA-SEN

Push-Polling Reported In Massachusetts

Eric Kleefeld | January 12, 2010, 2:22PM

MA Senate candidates State Sen. Scott Brown (R) and AG Martha Coakley (D)

Reports have come in of potential push-polling in the Massachusetts Senate race -- a practice in which the perpetrator pretends to be a pollster but isn't really gathering data, instead very quickly begins doing nothing but attacking an opposed candidate.

Boston-based blogger Dan Kennedy reports on the stories coming in. Liberal political caricaturist John Doherty said he received an automated phone call asking him whether he supported Republican Scott Brown or Democrat Martha Coakley. After he pushed the button for Coakley, he was asked whether it would change his vote if he knew Coakley supported taxpayer funding of abortions.

"I'm a poli-sci major, I know what a push poll is, and I knew this was one," Doherty told me.

Read more »

MA-SEN

Scott Brown Responds To Coakley Ad (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | January 12, 2010, 10:58AM

MA Senate Candidates AG Martha Coakley (D) and State Sen. Scott Brown (R)

Republican candidate Scott Brown has a new ad up in the Massachusetts special Senate race, responding to a recent attack ad from Democrat Martha Coakley.

The Coakley ad called Brown a "lockstep" Republican who would block tougher oversight for Wall Street, wants more tax breaks for the wealthy, and favors denying emergency contraception to rape victims. "At times like these, we can't afford a Republican like Scott Brown," the announcer said.

In his new ad, Brown declares that the ad isn't true, though he doesn't specifically refute anything. "Instead of discussing issues like health care and jobs, they decided the best way to stop me is to tear me down. But the old way of doing things won't work anymore," Brown says. "Their attack ads are wrong and go too far. I'm Scott Brown, and I approved this message because I'm running in the name of every independent-thinking voter, to take on the political machine and their candidate. And with your help, I intend to win."

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Health Care

Swallow It Whole! How Democrats Could Pass Health Care Without Coakley's Vote

Brian Beutler | January 12, 2010, 9:30AM

MA AG Martha Coakley

It's become conventional wisdom at this point that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid can't accept any major changes the House might make to his health care bill, because he needs to retain the support of all 60 of his members. But what happens if Martha Coakley loses her Senate race, and that number drops to 59--one shy of the threshold needed to stop a filibuster? There may be an out. Technically.

For a bill to become law, the House and Senate have to pass identical versions of the same legislation. Because the Senate already passed a health care bill, if the House just adopted it word for word, the President could sign it, and health care reform would be done.

Senate aides are aware of this backdoor, though they caution that it would create major political problems. House Democrats aren't exactly big fans of the Senate language, and wouldn't take too kindly to the notion that they should scrap all the hard work they put into their own reform bill.

"There is not a snow balls chance in hell that the House will pass the Senate bill," one top Senate aide noted.

Read more »

MA-SEN

Massachusetts Senate Candidates Have Final Debate -- Health Care Is Top Issue

Eric Kleefeld | January 11, 2010, 9:31PM

MA Senate candidates Martha Coakley (D) and Scott Brown (R).

The candidates in the Massachusetts special election met tonight for their final debate, with tough attacks flying between Democrat Martha Coakley, Republican Scott Brown, and independent libertarian Joe Kennedy. And again, there was a frequent reminder that the fate of the health care bill in Washington could be riding on this election.

It wasn't hard to keep this in mind. David Gergen, the moderator for this event, openly introduced the debate by telling the audience that this election may very well determine the result of the health care debate. He then began the debate by asking the candidates whether this election should be seen as a referendum on the health care bill -- perhaps setting up a ready-made spin of the election result for himself and other commentators.

Brown was first. "The health care bill that's being proposed in Washington is broken," Brown said. "The back-room deals, Nebraska, Louisiana, we all know about it. We need to start over." He added a short while later: "I would be proud to be the 41st vote, and go back to the drawing board."

Read more »

MA-SEN

New Coakley Ad: Brown A 'Lockstep' Republican, Favors Denying Emergency Contraception To Rape Victims (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | January 11, 2010, 9:25PM

Senate candidate Scott Brown (R-MA).

Democratic candidate Martha Coakley has a very tough new ad in the Massachusetts Senate special election, hammering Republican Scott Brown as a right-winger not cut out for this Democratic state.

"Who is Scott Brown, really?" the announcer says. "A Republican. In lockstep with Washington Republicans. Blocking tougher oversight of Wall Street. More tax breaks for the wealthiest. No new prescription coverage for millions of seniors."

"Brown even favors letting hospitals deny emergency contraception to rape victims," the announcer says, juxtaposing the smiling Brown photo with video of a cowering young woman, presumably meant to signify a rape victim. "He lacks understanding and seriousness. In times like these, we can't afford a Republican like Scott Brown."

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Scott Brown

Scott Brown 'Money-Bomb' Brings In Big Money

Eric Kleefeld | January 11, 2010, 5:11PM

Senate candidate Scott Brown (R-MA).

A "money-bomb" online fundraiser by Scott Brown, the Republican candidate in next week's special election for Ted Kennedy's Senate seat in Massachusetts, has been a smashing success today.

The original goal for the money-bomb, entitled "Red Invades Blue," was to raise $500,000 today. As of this writing, he has exceeded that goal -- he is now at $626,375.87 -- and he's headed towards a new goal of $750,000.

Regardless of whether Brown wins or loses in this Democratic state, one thing is clear: National conservative activists have been able to take a clear interest in this race, and they could mobilize themselves for a cause in a similar way to the liberal Netroots during the Bush years.

Late Update: At about 6:15 p.m. ET, the money-bomb reached $750,018.81.

Martha Coakley

Gibbs: Obama Not Scheduled To Campaign For Coakley In Massachusetts

Eric Kleefeld | January 11, 2010, 1:51PM

Sen. Candidate Martha Coakley (D-MA) and President Obama

At today's press briefing, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said that President Obama does not have any plans to campaign for Democratic candidate Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts Senate special election.

"The president doesn't have any travel plans to campaign in Massachusetts," Gibbs said, in response to an initial question from Fox News' Major Garrett. Roll Call's Keith Koffler later followed up, asking why Obama wasn't going. Koffler asked whether there was any concern that with Obama's falling approval ratings, could he hurt Coakley's chances?

"No. No. No," said Gibbs, who later added: "We just -- it's not on the schedule as a trip the president's going to make."

Martha Coakley

Coakley Internal Poll: She's Up By 14 Points

Eric Kleefeld | January 11, 2010, 1:31PM

MA Senate candidates Martha Coakley (D) and Scott Brown (R).

A new internal poll from the Martha Coakley campaign says that Coakley, the Democratic candidate in the January 19 special election for Ted Kennedy's Senate, has a huge lead over Republican Scott Brown.

The survey, conducted by Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, puts Coakley ahead by 50%-36%. The margin is similar to the latest Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire poll, and very different from the Public Policy Polling (D) numbers that gave Brown a one-point edge.

But as Politico notes: "Still, by commissioning and then disclosing private polling showing Coakley with a significant lead, Democrats are attempting to send the message that they are both taking the race seriously and that the party's 60-seat majority in the Senate is not threatened."

MA-SEN

National Dems Taking Notice Of Massachusetts Senate Race

Eric Kleefeld | January 11, 2010, 1:08PM

MA AG Martha Coakley

Democrats have quickly become aware of the potential of a defeat in the Massachusetts special Senate election -- a race that has become close in some of the polls, despite this being a heavily Democratic state -- and are working to mobilize Democratic turnout.

Over the last few days the Democratic National Committee, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, and Organizing For America have all been stepping up, with the latest news that DNC national press secretary Hari Sevugan is headed to Boston.

A Democratic source in Washington tells TPMDC that the prominent public discussion of potential low Democratic turnout in the Massachusetts special Senate election could have a beneficial effect: Alerting Democrats to the problem and thus helping to boost that very turnout.

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MA-SEN

GOP Deploying Resources And Top Talent For Massachusetts Senate Race

Christina Bellantoni | January 11, 2010, 11:55AM

Senate candidate Scott Brown (R-MA).

National Republicans have a new rallying point in Massachusetts Senate nominee Scott Brown, with presidential contenders and party committees flooding the zone with cash, staff and endorsements as health care becomes the central issue at stake for the special election.

2012 hopefuls Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty are helping the campaign, and Sen. John McCain endorsed Brown to win over attorney general Martha Coakley.

Republicans believe the key in what's expected to be a low turnout race will be independents, and note the trend in Massachusetts is similar to what's been seen nationally - voter frustration over spending issues and the economy.

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Martha Coakley

Is Sarah Palin Avoiding Mass Sen Race?

Brian Beutler | January 11, 2010, 11:35AM

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin

The Massachusetts Senate election is right around the corner, and many of the GOPs 2012 presidential hopefuls have weighed in on behalf of Republican candidate Scott Brown. Tim Pawlenty is pushing for him. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney's got his back, too. All of which is causing Democrats to ask, Where's Sarah Palin?

"She's one of the more vocal personalities representing the right wing of their party, and it's interesting that she's nowhere to be found in this race," said one top Democratic strategist--a view echoed by several operatives.

"Palin for America's enthusiastic endorsement of Scott Brown this weekend got us wondering - where on earth is Sarah Palin herself?" asked DNC spokesman Hari Sevugan in a statement to TPMDC.

Clearly, her supporters are anxious for her to weigh in. And, never one to be shy with an endorsement, Palin has -- in the last year alone - endorsed and in many cases offered financial support to a laundry list of far-right Republican leaders including Michele Bachmann, Rob Portman, Doug Hoffman, Marsha Blackburn, Bob McDonnell and Chris Christie. In fact, we're hard pressed to come up with a national party figure who's been more active in endorsing Republican candidates over the past year than Sarah Palin."

"Will Sarah Palin join Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney and other national Republicans in their support for Scott Brown? Or, has the pit bull lost her bark?

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MA-SEN

Gloves Come Off At Massachusetts Debate -- With Health Care Bill Clearly On The Line

Eric Kleefeld | January 11, 2010, 10:07AM

MA Senate candidates Martha Coakley (D) and Scott Brown (R).

The Massachusetts Senate candidates met Friday night for a very hard-hitting debate, with Republican candidate Scott Brown sending a very clear message: If he is elected to the Senate from this Democratic state, he will stop the health care bill by enabling the GOP to hold up cloture.

"As the 41st Senator, I can stop it," said Brown. "Not as an obstructionist, but to look at it in a different way, to make sure that we do it better."

Recent polling has given a mixed picture for the January 19 special election, a situation that is inherently difficult to poll. This weekend, Public Policy Polling (D) gave Brown a one-point edge, while the Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire gave Coakley a 15-point lead.

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MA-SEN

New Poll Gives Dem Coakley Big Lead In MA-SEN Special Election

Eric Kleefeld | January 10, 2010, 9:55AM

MA AG Martha Coakley

Th new University of New Hampshire poll, commissioned by the Boston Globe, gives Democratic candidate Martha Coakley a big lead in the January 19 spacial election for Ted Kennedy's Senate seat.

The numbers: Coakley 50%, Brown 35%, and independent libertarian Joe Kennedy at 5%, with a ±4.2% margin of error. When undecideds were pushed, Coakley's lead became 53%-36%, with Kennedy's numbers staying the same. This poll contradicts yesterday's survey by Public Policy Polling (D), which gave Republican Scott Brown a one-point edge because of a lack of Democratic enthusiasm.

As the Globe notes: "Although the Senate race electorate is fairly firm in its choices - 61 percent say they have definitely decided whom they will support, and 15 percent are leaning toward a candidate - special elections can remain volatile until the last minute. Turnout is also highly unpredictable in an election that follows a holiday and could be affected by winter weather."

MA-SEN

Poll: MA-SEN Race Is A Toss-Up -- GOPer Brown Has One-Point Edge

Eric Kleefeld | January 10, 2010, 12:24AM

MA Senate candidates Martha Coakley (D) and Scott Brown (R).

The new survey of Massachusetts by Public Policy Polling (D) sends a very alarming message to Democrats: Due to a fall in interest by Democratic voters, the race for the late Ted Kennedy's Senate seat is a toss-up, and Republican Scott Brown even has a one-point edge over Democrat Martha Coakley.

The numbers: Brown 48%, Coakley 47%, with a ±3.6% margin of error. The election will be held on January 19. Independent candidate Joe Kennedy, a libertarian who is not related to the famous Kennedy family, was not included in the poll. If Brown were to pick up this seat in Democratic Massachusetts, it would surely spell the end of the health care bill -- Brown has made it very clear that he would use his power as the 41st Republican Senator to stop the bill.

The pollster's analysis notes that Republicans are far more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats are. "The Massachusetts Senate race is shaping up as a potential disaster for Democrats," said PPP president Dean Debnam, in the polling memo. "Martha Coakley's complacent campaign has put Scott Brown in a surprisingly strong position and she will need to step it up in the final week to win a victory once thought inevitable."

Mitt Romney

Anybody Home? Romney Voted In MA Election Using Son's Address

Christina Bellantoni | January 8, 2010, 3:39PM

Former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA)

Despite selling his only home in Massachusetts, former Gov. Mitt Romney (R) voted last month in the state's Republican primary to choose a candidate for Sen. Ted Kennedy's seat using his son's address and has already mailed in a ballot for the Jan. 19 special election.

Romney spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom said despite selling his home in Belmont last year, Romney never gave up his Massachusetts residency. When he is in the state he stays with his son Tagg.

Romney, a former governor who ran for president in 2008 and is considering another bid in 2012, made an offer on a condo in Belmont and will close in March.

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MA-SEN

Vicki Kennedy Endorses Coakley, Cites Ted's Work On Health Care

Eric Kleefeld | January 7, 2010, 12:14PM

Massachusetts Atty. Gen. Martha Coakley (D)

Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley, the Democratic nominee in the January 19 special election for Ted Kennedy's Senate seat, was formally endorsed today by the late Senator's widow Vicki Kennedy -- who made it clear that the health care bill is a big issue in this election.

"My husband fought for health care reform for more than 40 years. He called it the cause of his life. He believed that health care for all our citizens was a fundamental right and not a privilege," added Kennedy. "Martha Coakley shares those beliefs and she'll go to Washington to fight for us."

At Tuesday's debate, Republican candidate Scott Brown said that if he were elected he would be the 41st Republican, and said of the health care bill: "I can stop it so they can go back to the drawing board and do something better for Massachusetts." A Rasmussen poll earlier this week gave Coakley a lead of 50%-41%, with the potential for a Brown upset win if turnout were low and Republican voters more motivated.

MA-SEN

Coakley To Roll Out Kennedy Family Endorsements

Eric Kleefeld | January 6, 2010, 5:52PM

Massachusetts Atty. Gen. Martha Coakley (D)

Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley, the Democratic nominee in the January 19 special election to succeed Ted Kennedy in the Senate, will be officially endorsed tomorrow by members of the Kennedy family, the Coakley campaign announced in a press release.

The group will be led by Ted Kennedy's widow Vicki, accompanied by former Rep. Joseph Kennedy (a son of Robert F. Kennedy) and his son Joseph Kennedy III. Also in attendance will be Rep. Ed Markey, Medford Mayor Michael McGlynn, and interim Sen. Paul Kirk, who was previously a long-time aide to Ted Kennedy and a family friend.

It shouldn't be too surprising that Kennedy relatives would be supporting the Democrat. However, the optics of the event itself could be politically useful, in light of Republican candidate Scott Brown's recent TV ad, which uses footage of President John F. Kennedy proposing a tax cut in 1962. The ad declares that Brown's message of tax cuts today makes him just like JFK, so having actual Kennedys on hand to endorse Coakley could help counter whatever traction Brown might get.

MA-SEN

Coakley Launches New Ad In MA-SEN Special Election (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | January 6, 2010, 1:17PM

Massachusetts Atty. Gen. Martha Coakley (D)

Massachusetts state Attorney General Martha Coakley, the Democratic candidate in the January 19 special election for Senate, has her first TV ad up for the general election campaign.

"Cracking down on corporate greed; shutting down scammers who rip off seniors; putting sex predators behind bars," says Coakley. "It's not what you say that matters -- it's who you stand up for."

The reference to what people say could be a rebuttal of Republican candidate Scott Brown's recent ad in which he used video from 1962 of President John F. Kennedy promoting a tax cut proposal. In that ad, the video faded from Kennedy to Brown, continuing to recite the words of the speech in order to promote modern-day tax cuts.

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MA-SEN

MA Senate Debate Underscores Vulnerability Of Health Care Reform

Eric Kleefeld | January 5, 2010, 11:55AM

MA Senate candidates Martha Coakley (D) and Scott Brown (R).

The candidates in the Massachusetts Senate special election debated this morning on a local radio station, with Democrat Martha Coakley and Republican Scott Brown setting up some stark partisan contrasts. But perhaps the most important message of the debate was Brown's promise to stop the health care bill in its tracks if he is able to pull off an upset two weeks from today and become the 41st GOPer in the Senate.

It was striking that Brown didn't try to soft-peddle the Republican message in this Democratic state. A big part of his campaign is that if he is elected, he would have the power to stop Democratic bills. Of the current health care bill he declared: "I would be the 41st senator and would stop that particular bill, because as a Massachusetts Senator I need to look out for our jobs and our hospitals." He later added: "I can stop it so they can go back to the drawing board and do something better for Massachusetts."

Coakley, the front runner, stressed the importance of passing some kind of bill in the Senate: "The people who don't want this desperately don't want health care reform. They don't want any kind of health care reform, and they use this [abortion] as a trigger."

During the Democratic primary, Coakley was heavily critical of the House health care bill and the Stupak Amendment. In the debate this morning, she indicated an openness to the Senate's version of abortion language, compared to the Stupak measure because it prevented people receiving federal subsidies from purchasing coverage for abortion with their own money. "The Senate version, though I don't love it, doesn't have that provision in it," Coakley said, also adding: "I don't love that amendment, but I do believe the Senate bill brings us closer towards the two goals of health care, promoting competition and bringing costs down."

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MA-SEN

Poll: Dem Coakley Leads GOPer Brown In MA-SEN Race, But Low Turnout Could Help Brown

Eric Kleefeld | January 5, 2010, 9:18AM

Massachusetts Atty. Gen. Martha Coakley (D)

The new Rasmussen poll of the Massachusetts Senate special election, which will be held two weeks from today, gives Democratic candidate Martha Coakley an initial lead over Republican Scott Brown. But it might not be an automatic landslide in this Democratic-leaning state, with GOP voters disproportionately more enthusiastic in what could be a low-turnout election.

The numbers: Coakley 50%, Brown 41%, with a ±4.5% margin of error.

From the pollster's analysis: "Special elections are typically decided by who shows up to vote and it is clear from the data that Brown's supporters are more enthusiastic. In fact, among those who are absolutely certain they will vote, Brown pulls to within two points of Coakley. That suggests a very low turnout will help the Republican and a higher turnout is better for the Democrat."