2010 elections

Two House Races Remain Undecided

Marc Kilstein | November 24, 2010, 2:44PM

Rep. Tim Bishop (D-NY) and Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-CA)

And then there were two.

Three weeks after voters went to the polls, just two congressional races remain undecided. They are:

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Pres '12

Poll: 41% Of Dems Want Primary Opponent For Obama

Marc Kilstein | November 24, 2010, 10:39AM

President Barack Obama

While President Obama has fared well at the state level in early 2012 presidential election polls, a newly released national poll paints a more troublesome picture for the president's re-election bid.

The McClatchy-Marist survey finds 41% of Democrats are in favor of a challenge for the Democratic presidential nomination. When Democratic-leaning independents are included, 45% support a primary challenge, 46% don't, and 9% aren't sure.

A November 15 Quinnipiac poll showed much less support for a contested 2012 primary, with just 27% of Democrats and Democrat leaners saying they wanted a Dem besides Obama to run in 2012, while 64% didn't.

In the Marist poll, only 36% of respondents indicate that they would "definitely vote for him" in the general election, whereas 48% state they will "definitely vote against him."

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2012 elections

Obama To Barbara Walters: 'I Don't Think Much About Sarah Palin'

Marc Kilstein | November 24, 2010, 10:25AM

President Obama

In a new sit-down interview with Barbara Walters, President Obama suggested that while he respects Sarah Palin's political skills, he's a bit too busy to pay her much attention.

Obama said he is not giving much thought to the 2012 election. When asked if he thinks he could beat Sarah Palin in 2012, he replied, "I don't think much about Sarah Palin."

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Tea Party

Poll: Americans Divided On Who Should Set Policy-- Obama Or The Tea Party

Marc Kilstein | November 24, 2010, 8:33AM

A Tea Party rally in Michigan.

Americans can't agree on who they want to "have the most influence on government policy next year," according to a newly released USA Today/Gallup poll. No surprise there. What may come as a surprise, however, is that at the top of the poll, the split is between respondents who want President Obama to set policy, and those who want Tea Partiers to take the lead in Washington.

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Pres '12

PPP Poll: Early Look At 2012 Finds Obama Faring Well In North Carolina

Marc Kilstein | November 24, 2010, 8:31AM

President Barack Obama

In 2008, President Obama became the first Democratic presidential nominee to win North Carolina since the mid-1970s. And according to a newly released PPP survey, he's well-positioned once again in this historically red state.

The early survey shows Obama faring well against Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich, while hanging close with Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. The survey finds:

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Lame duck sesion

Poll: Americans See Tax Issues As Top Priority For Lame-Duck Congress

Marc Kilstein | November 23, 2010, 3:37PM

Above all else, Americans are hoping for the lame-duck Congress to sort out some tax issues, according to a newly released USA Today/Gallup poll.

The latest survey asked respondents to rate the importance of six different issues that are being considered by Congress during its lame-duck session. The issues were:

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Polling bias

Pew Study Finds Republican Bias In Landline-Only Polls

Marc Kilstein | November 23, 2010, 8:18AM

For years, people have contended that a right-leaning bias exists in public opinion polls that fail to consider cell phone users. This argument has some new backing-- a Pew Research Center report released Monday suggests that polls based on landline-only samples do, in fact, suffer from a Republican bias.

The report, which confirms findings from a mid-October study, suggests that support for Republican candidates is significantly higher when a survey's sample is composed only of landline telephone respondents, rather than both landline and cell phone users ("dual frame samples"). Pew calculates a bias among likely voters in 2010 that is about twice as large as the statistical skew evident in 2008 landline-only election surveys.

In the October study, Pew looked at four 2010 election polls and found that in three of them, "estimates from the landline samples alone produced slightly more support for Republican candidates and less support for Democratic candidates, resulting in differences of four to six points in the margin." In the latest study, it was determined that Republicans were favored in landline-only likely voter surveys by an average of 5.1 percentage points more than they were in polls with dual frame samples. In the 2008 presidential election, Barack Obama's lead over John McCain was on average 2.4 percentage points smaller in landline samples.

For a single-poll example of this trend, Pew's final pre-election poll found Republicans leading the congressional generic ballot question 51%-39% for the landline-only sample, whereas the lead narrowed to 48%-42% when cell phone interviews were also considered. Currently, the analysis notes, House Republicans lead by a seven-point margin.

While Americans are undeniably growing more reliant on cell phones, there are still those who have access to both a landline and cell phone ("dual users"). The report suggests that dual users who are reached by cell phone differ demographically and attitudinally from dual users reached on their landlines. As such, another bias emerges-- those reached by cell phone, who "are younger, more likely to be black or Hispanic, less likely to be college graduates, less conservative and more Democratic," gave the GOP a five-point advantage in the congressional generic ballot question, whereas Republicans led by 12-points among dual users reached by landline. Pollsters are thus faced with yet another bias to counter, as polling for the 2012 elections is already well underway.

For Pew's complete report, click here.