WA-SEN

Poll: Murray Leads By 6 In WA-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | October 29, 2010, 4:06PM

WA Sen. candidate Dino Rossi (R) and Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA)

On the heels of two recent Washington Senate polls that show a tightening contest, the University of Washington released their poll today, which finds Democratic incumbent Sen. Patty Murray leading Republican nominee Dino Rossi by six points, 51%-45%.

When the Washington Poll was conducted two weeks ago, Murray led by eight points, 50%-42%. An October 27 SurveyUSA poll had the two candidates tied, 47%-47%, while a Rasmussen survey from October 26 saw Rossi up one point, 48%-47%.

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WA-SEN

SurveyUSA Poll: Dem Murray And GOPer Rossi Tied In WA-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | October 29, 2010, 10:10AM

WA Sen. candidate Dino Rossi (R) and Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA)

A newly released SurveyUSA poll of the Washington Senate race finds Democratic incumbent Sen. Patty Murray and Republican nominee Dino Rossi deadlocked 47%-47%.

When SurveyUSA looked at this race on October 14, Murray was leading by three points, 50%-47%. Yesterday, a Rasmussen survey found Rossi on top of the race for the first time in more than two weeks of heavy polling.

The TPM Poll Average finds the Democrat ahead in the contest 48.8%-45.8%. The margin of error for the latest survey is ±3.8 percentage points.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

WA-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: GOPer Rossi Up 1 On Murray In WA-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | October 28, 2010, 4:24PM

WA Sen. candidate Dino Rossi (R) and Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA)

A newly released Rasmussen survey of the Washington Senate race finds Republican nominee Dino Rossi edging out Democratic incumbent Sen. Patty Murray 48%-47%.

When Rasmussen looked at this race on October 17, Murray was on top 49%-46%. Prior to today's survey, the Democrat had led seven straight polls dating back to October 11.

The TPM Poll Average still has Murray ahead in the contest 49.1%-45.9%. The margin of error for the latest survey is ±4.0 percentage points.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

OH-GOV

Polls: GOPer Kasich Holds Lead In OH-GOV Race

Marc Kilstein | October 28, 2010, 4:18PM

Governor Ted Strickland (D-OH) and Gubernatorial candidate John Kasich (R-OH)

Two newly released polls on the Ohio gubernatorial race find Republican former Rep. John Kasich on top of Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland. A Rasmussen survey has the Republican leading 48%-44%, while a SurveyUSA poll has the contest favoring Kasich 49%-44%, with Libertarian Ken Matesz earning 3% and Green Party candidate Dennis Spisak polling at 1%.

When Rasmussen looked at this race two weeks ago, Kasich was on top 48%-45%, while SurveyUSA's last poll of the race from mid-September found him leading with 52% versus Strickland's 40%, Spisak's 3%, and Matesz's 2%.

The margin of error for both surveys is ±4.0 percentage points.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

CO-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: GOPer Buck Up 4 In CO-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | October 28, 2010, 3:03PM

Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate race in Colorado Ken Buck and Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO)

A new Rasmussen poll of the Colorado Senate race finds Republican Ken Buck leading Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet 48%-44%.

When Rasmussen took a look at this race two weeks ago, Buck was ahead 47%-45%. Recent polls have suggested that the Republican's lead in the contest has been dwindling.

The TPM Poll Average has Buck on top 47.9%-45.4%. The margin of error for the latest survey is ±4.0 percentage points.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

FL-SEN

Quinnipiac Poll: Crist Only Down 7 In FL-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | October 28, 2010, 2:31PM

FL Sen candidates Kendrick Meek (D), Charlie Crist (I), and Marco Rubio (R)

A new Quinnipiac poll of the Florida Senate race suggests independent Gov. Charlie Crist is not trailing Republican nominee Marco Rubio by as much as other recent polls would have you believe.

The three-way matchup finds Crist down seven points to Rubio, 42%-35%, with Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek polling at 15%. When Quinnipiac last polled this contest on October 10, the Governor was down a more significant 14 points, 44%-30%, with Meek earning 22%.

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FL-GOV

New Polls Suggest Different Leaders In FL-GOV Race

Marc Kilstein | October 28, 2010, 1:56PM

Florida gubernatorial candidates Alex Sink (D) and Rick Scott (R)

Polling on the Florida gubernatorial race has been anything but consistent over the last few months. Democratic state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink and Republican former hospital executive Rick Scott have each found themselves atop a handful of surveys, while neither has been able to maintain an outright advantage for an extended period of time. Today, two new polls on the race have been released, echoing this trend-- a Quinnipiac Poll finds Sink leading Scott 45%-41%, while a Rasmussen survey has the Republican ahead 48%-45%.

When Quinnipiac looked at this on October 10, Scott was found on top of the contest 45%-44%. Rasmussen's last look on October 18 gave him a more significant six-point advantage, 50%-44%.

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Early Voting

Gallup Poll: Early Voting High Out West And Among Older Voters, But Little Partisan Implications

Marc Kilstein | October 27, 2010, 1:29PM

Voters waiting in line to vote early

While the midterm election date is set for Tuesday, many Americans have already cast their votes through absentee and early-voting procedures. New numbers from a USA Today/Gallup poll suggest early voting is highest among older Americans and people living out West. So which party does this poll suggest is faring better thus far?

Eh, Republicans by a bit, but the advantage isn't all that telling.

As the pollster puts it, "While interested observers have been poring over reports of early voting in an attempt to get a handle on the direction of the election, Gallup's current data do not show much of a difference in early voting by party affiliation." The numbers are as follows: 13% of self-identified Republicans have already voted, with 15% more planning to vote before election day, while 9% of Democrats have already voted, with 14% more planning to vote prior to Tuesday. The poll finds that 9% of independents have already voted and 19% more plan to vote between now and November 2nd.

While these numbers may not suggest a whole lot about how the election will play out, some numbers from the poll do stand out--as 27% of registered voters indicated they either have already voted or plan to before election day, 59% of that total comes from the West and 36% is from voters over 65 years old. In the East, only 6% of respondents stated they have or will make use of early voting procedures, and in the 18-29 age range, 16% of those polled stated they have or intend to vote early. Twenty-eight percent of the young age range said they do not plan to vote or don't know whether or not they will, while only 6% of respondents over 65 expressed the same sentiment.

The pollster concludes, "The finding that older voters have a higher propensity to vote early is not a new one, but confirms that many senior citizens, like residents in the West, are by this point in the election cycle essentially 'out of the game' as far as the campaigning is concerned. A disproportionately high number of younger registered voters volunteer that they will not end up voting this year, also confirming what is well-known in American politics -- that young voters are as a rule not highly involved in the election process."

The results are based on a question included in an October 21-24 survey among 1364 registered voters. Last week, we reported on early voting numbers provided by partisan voter registrations.

2010 elections

The Hill: Republicans Set To Pick Up 50 Or More House Seats

Marc Kilstein | October 27, 2010, 12:03PM

The US Capitol Building

Over the last four weeks, The Hill and pollster Penn Schoen Berland have polled 42 toss-up congressional districts across the country, in an attempt to predict the magnitude of the upcoming election's congressional shakeup. The latest poll foresees a tough election day for the Democrats.

The survey's numbers suggest that Republicans are poised to win more than enough seats to take control away from the Democrats in the House next year. With the party needing to pick up 39 seats for majority control, The Hill's data suggests they are likely to take 50 or more.

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CA-SEN

PPP Poll: Dems Increasing Leads In CA-SEN And CA-GOV Races

Marc Kilstein | October 26, 2010, 4:43PM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and California Attorney General Jerry Brown

On the heels of two newly released surveys of the California Senate and gubernatorial races, another set of numbers has come out, extending the narrative that Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer and state Attorney General Jerry Brown are pulling away in their respective races.

The poll, conducted by PPP, finds Boxer leading Republican former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina in the state's Senate race 52%-43%, while Brown is found up on Republican former eBay CEO Meg Whitman 53%-42% in the state's gubernatorial race. When PPP last looked at these races on September 16, Boxer led 50%-42%, while Brown was up by a narrower 47%-42% advantage.

The TPM Poll Average finds Boxer on top of the Senate race 47.5%-43.4%. In the gubernatorial contest, the TPM Poll Average shows Brown leading Whitman 48.8%-41.2%.

The margin of error of the newest statewide survey is ±3.9 percentage points.

For more on the Senate race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here. For more on the gubernatorial race, click here.

CA-SEN

Suffolk Poll: Boxer Up 9, Brown Up 8 In CA Races

Marc Kilstein | October 26, 2010, 4:29PM

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and California Attorney General Jerry Brown

Suffolk University has released a new California statewide poll and the Democrats appear to be in control of both the Senate and gubernatorial races.

In the Senate contest, Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer is leading Republican former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina 52%-43%, with Libertarian Gail Lightfoot earning 2%, American Independent candidate Edward Noonan polling at 1%, and Green Party candidate Duane Roberts pulling in 1% as well.

In the gubernatorial race, Democratic state Attorney General Jerry Brown is up on Republican former eBay CEO Meg Whitman 50%-42%, with a slew of third party candidates polling in the single digits (American Independent candidate Chelene Nightingale at 2%, while Green Party candidate Laura Wells, Libertarian Dale Ogden, and Peace and Freedom candidate Carlos Alvarez are all at 1%).

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