MN-GOV

Dayton The Apparent Winner In Tight MN-GOV Dem Primary, But It's Not Done Yet

Eric Kleefeld | August 11, 2010, 9:02AM

MN Democratic Primary Gov. candidates Mark Dayton and Margaret Anderson Kelliher

Former U.S. Sen. Mark Dayton has been projected by the Associated Press as the winner of the Democratic primary for governor of Minnesota, setting up an amazing comeback as he faces Republican state Rep. Tom Emmer in the race to succeed retiring GOP Gov. Tim Pawlenty. But it's not quite over yet -- in a state that already had one high-profile recount in the last few years, Dayton has not declared victory, and his main opponent has not conceded.

With 98% of precincts reporting, Dayton has 41%, state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher 40% -- a raw vote lead of only about 5,000 for Dayton -- and former state House Dem Leader Matt Entenza 18%. Kelliher was the officially endorsed candidate of the state Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party convention -- an endorsement that should have traditionally given her the nomination with her opponents dropping out. But Dayton and Entenza fought it out in the primary, with each aided by his personal wealth.

The polls going into this primary gave Dayton a double-digit lead. However, Kelliher clearly benefited immensely from the state DFL's get-out-the-vote machine, which is well organized for winning primaries for an endorsed candidate through the work of the state party and organized labor, and she swept through the Twin Cities area. However, Dayton had the endorsement of the steelworkers union, which delivered him a big margin in the Iron Range region up north, and he won other areas of the state as well.

As of late last night, Kelliher had not conceded, telling her supporters to wait for the final votes to come in. Dayton told his own supporters, "We're definitely not declaring victory," and also added: "I totally respect Speaker Kelliher wanting to wait until all of the votes are counted."

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MN-GOV

Minnesota Dems Voting Today For Gubernatorial Nominee

Eric Kleefeld | August 10, 2010, 8:57AM

MN Gov. Democratic primary candidates Margaret Anderson Kelliher, Mark Dayton, and Matt Entenza

Voters are headed to the polls today in Minnesota's Democratic gubernatorial primary. The party's chosen candidate, state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, is facing off against former state House Dem leader Matt Entenza and former Sen. Mark Dayton -- and is going to need some help to pull out a victory.

The TPM Poll Average for the primary gives Dayton the lead with 41.0%, followed by Kelliher at 26.5%, and Entenza with 22.0%. The question, then, is whether the organized ground game of the state Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party -- as the Dems are called in Minnesota -- will be able to pull off a surprise for Kelliher despite the polls.

Minnesota political parties traditionally don't hold real primaries, but instead go through a system of precinct caucuses, county conventions and a state convention. If a candidate can get a 60% super-majority of delegates at the state convention, the party then officially endorses that candidate and the opponents are expected by custom to drop out. This is how presumptive Republican Tom Emmer won his nomination, for example, with tomorrow's primary a mere formality on the Republican side.

But it didn't work out quite so cleanly on the Democratic side.

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MN-GOV

SurveyUSA Poll: Emmer Losing Badly To Dems For MN-GOV, Mark Dayton Leads DFL Primary

Eric Kleefeld | August 6, 2010, 3:15PM

MN Gov candidate Tom Emmer (R)

Yet another poll of the Minnesota gubernatorial race shows the Democratic candidates ahead of presumptive Republican nominee Tom Emmer -- and by some pretty decent margins, too.

The new poll from SurveyUSA shows former U.S. Mark Dayton ahead of Emmer by 46%-32%, with the Independence Party's Tom Horner at 9%. The polls show that, in a similar three-way race, State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, the state Dem convention's officially endorsed candidate, would come out ahead by 39%-33%-12%. And former state House Minority Leader Matt Entenza is ahead by 38%-33%-12%. The survey of likely voters has a ±2.7% margin of error.

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MN-GOV

Poll: Emmer Trailing Dems In MN-GOV Race

Eric Kleefeld | August 2, 2010, 1:12PM

Minnesota gubernatorial candidate Tom Emmer (R)

The new Star Tribune poll of the Minnesota gubernatorial race provides further corroboration that presumptive Republican nominee Tom Emmer is significantly trailing any of the three Democratic candidates.

State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, the state Dems' officially endorsed candidate, leads Emmer by 38%-29%, with Independence Party candidate Tom Horner at 13%. Former U.S. Sen. Mark Dayton leads Emmer by 40%-30%, with Horner at 13%. And former state House Minority Leader Matt Entenza leads Emmer by 36%-31%, with Horner at 15%. The survey of registered voters has a ±4.5% margin of error. There is no previous Star Tribune poll for direct comparison.

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MN-GOV

Rasmussen Poll: Dems Lead Emmer In MN-GOV

Eric Kleefeld | July 21, 2010, 9:42AM

MN Gov candidate Tom Emmer (R)

A new Rasmussen poll of the Minnesota gubernatorial race shows the Democratic candidates narrowly ahead of Republican state Rep. Tom Emmer, the presumptive GOP nominee who has been enduring bad press over his right-wing position and his recent flap involving potential lower wages for waiters.

State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, the state Dems' officially endorsed candidate, leads Emmer by 40%-35%, with Independence Party candidate Tom Horner at 11%. Former U.S. Sen. Mark Dayton leads Emmer by 40%-36%, with Horner at 10%. And former state House Minority Leader Matt Entenza edges Emmer by 37%-36%, with Horner at 12%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.5% margin of error. In the previous poll from late May, Emmer lead Kelliher and Horner by 38%-36%-11%, Emmer led Dayton and Horner by 37%-35%-12%, and Emmer led Entenza and Horner by 37%-34%-12%.

The TPM Poll Average has Kelliher ahead by 39.3%-35.1%-11.0%, Dayton ahead by 40.0%-36.1%-10.0%, and Entenza edging ahead by 36.8%-36.5%-11.8%. The Democratic primary will be held on August 10.