2010 elections

TPM Approves These Messages: Five Great Ads Of 2010 (VIDEOS)

Eric Kleefeld | December 31, 2010, 3:07PM

With the year 2010 coming to a close, and a truly raucous election season behind us (and another set to begin), let's take a look at a real highlight of the cycle: A sampling, even just a small one, of some great campaign ads we got to see over the past year.

Unlike some of our other lists, we're not talking about a mix of great ads and awful ones that took on a kitsch value. (I'm looking in your direction, "I'm not a witch. I'm you," and also at you, "Aqua Buddha.")

No, here we're talking about truly great ads that applied ingenuity, creativity and pure guts to an election. We're talking about the ones whose creators deserve accolades and good spots on campaigns for 2012 -- and might just get them.

So get out your popcorn and your New Year's alcohol, and watch our five picks.

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NC-SEN

NC-SEN Candidates Sum Up The Dem vs. GOP Debate Over LGBT Rights (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 22, 2010, 12:42PM

Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC)

In 2010, the debate over gay rights, while a major issue for many groups, has not played a central role in the political debate surrounding most midterm elections. This is partially due to the economy taking center stage, and partially due to the fact that American society is just kind of over the whole thing, and is more tolerant of the LGBT community than ever before.

Yet on the campaign trail, the divisions over Don't Ask Don't Tell and other gay rights causes can still run very deep between the two parties -- creating a clear distinction that popped up last night in a debate between the two nominees running for Senate in North Carolina.

The exchange between Sen. Richard Burr (R) and Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) isn't likely to change the election's outcome -- polls show Burr with a big lead, and most observers expect him to cruise to reelection this fall.

But the debate offered one of the clearest views of the differences between Republicans and Democrats over LGBT rights found this year. Marshall called DADT "governmental discrimination," equal to "judging people by the color of their hair, the color of their eyes, or the color of their skin, or other factors they have no control over."

Burr said he had no idea whether homosexuality is a choice or biological and bristled at the idea that the battle for racial Civil Rights is equatable to granting LGBT rights.

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NC-SEN

PPP Poll: Dem Marshall Gaining On GOPer Burr In NC-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | October 19, 2010, 3:39PM

Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) and Sen. candidate Elaine Marshall (D-NC)

For the first time in nearly two months of polling, incumbent Republican Sen. Richard Burr's lead in the North Carolina Senate race is in the single-digits. Democratic Secretary of State Elaine Marshall finds herself trailing by eight points in a newly released PPP poll, 48%-40%, with Libertarian Michael Beitler earning 3%.

Burr's lead over the last month has ranged from 13 points (in PPP's September 26 look at the race) to 20 points. The TPM Poll Average still finds Marshall with some major ground to make up -- she's at 35.0%, compared to Burr's 50.8%.

The margin of error for the latest survey is ±4.0 percentage points.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

NC-SEN

Candidates Debate In NC-SEN Fight That's All Uphill For Dems

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 12, 2010, 10:53AM

NC-SEN candidate Elaine Marshall (D)

Incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R) and his Democratic rival in the North Carolina Senate race, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, traded barbs last night in a debate that reports describe as "civil."

The tone didn't mean the candidates agreed much, however, with the pair clashing over "the new health care law, on drilling off the state's coast and on which party was responsible for the national debt," according to the Raleigh, NC News & Observer. (The Libertarian candidate in the race -- who polls show is drawing little support -- declined to participate.)

To no one's surprise, Marshall "most often played the role of the aggressor" in the hour-long debate. Marshall needs her repeated jabs at Burr on the campaign trail to connect with voters -- and do it quickly -- if she wants to overcome polling that shows her to be an extreme underdog. The TPM Poll Average shows Burr ahead of Marshall by a margin of 50.2-32.8.

Last night's forum may not have been the tide-turning event Marshall needs, however. "The debate was civil in tone, although both candidates got in jabs," the N&O reports. "At other times, the debate seemed flat. There were no moments of high drama, and there appeared to be no major mistakes."

NC-SEN

Fun With Numbers On TV: Burr's Latest Ad Attacks Marshall In NC-SEN (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 24, 2010, 9:02AM

Richard Burr campaign ad, "Future"

Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) is continuing his plan to seemingly repeat Sen. Kay Hagan's (D-NC) successful ad blitz that won her the 2008 election over Elizabeth Dole. Using the same two actors Hagan did in her old-men-rocking-on-a-porch spots, Burr is turning their elderly frustration against the Democratic nominee, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, this year.

The new ad focuses on the standard GOP bogeymen of the cycle -- rising deficits, spending and cap-and-trade.

"Six!" one old man yells from his rocking chair.

"Nope, a little before five," the other deapans from his rocking chair.

The two then begin to banter about the "six trillion dollars in new government spending" the pair say Marshall wants to bring to Washington.

The TPM Poll Average shows Burr leading Marshall 53.3-35.4.

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Elaine Marshall

Elaine Marshall Supports Letting High-Income Tax Cuts Expire

Brian Beutler | September 22, 2010, 3:18PM

NC-SEN candidate Elaine Marshall (D)

While incumbent Democrats run scared from a fight over letting tax cuts for wealthy Americans expire, some Democratic hopefuls are running openly on President Obama's platform.

Take Elaine Marshall, running to unseat Sen. Richard Burr in red North Carolina.

"She thinks the rich can pay their fair share," her spokesman Sam Swartz told TPMDC.

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NC-SEN

SurveyUSA Poll: GOPer Burr Widens Lead In NC-SEN Race

Marc Kilstein | September 15, 2010, 12:58PM

Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) and Sen. candidate Elaine Marshall (D-NC)

A new SurveyUSA poll of the North Carolina Senate race finds incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R) with a commanding lead over his Democratic opponent, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, 58%-34%.

The survey's 24-point margin is the largest lead for the Republican in recent months' polling. Libertarian nominee Mike Beitler earned 6% of respondents' support in the latest survey. A July 25 SurveyUSA poll produced a much narrower margin in the contest, with Burr up on Marshall 42%-39%. A September 8 Rasmussen survey had the Republican nominee up 16-points, 54%-38%. Marshall's campaign insisted that Rasmussen survey was an "outlier poll". August and late-July polling of the contest never produced a double-digit margin between the two leading candidates.

The TPM Poll Average finds Burr with a 53.3%-35.4% advantage over Marshall.

For more on the race, check out TPMDC's full coverage here.

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2010 elections

TPM's Top 10 Senate Races To Watch

Brian Beutler | September 13, 2010, 8:35AM

Kentucky Senate candidates Jack Conway and Rand Paul talk with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

Campaign season doesn't really heat up until September ... which means now. That means all the scandals and ads and ups and downs you've heard and read about in the last several months were just stage-setters. Most voters really begin paying attention now.

It's looking like a tough year for Senate Democrats, almost of whom are polling below 50 percent. Several weeks ago, many Republicans -- including NRSC Chair John Cornyn -- thought Republicans wouldn't be able to retake the Senate. Today, it's a distinct possibility. There are a number of critical races, but you should really keep an eye on these 10.

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NC-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: Dem Marshall Trails By 16 In NC

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 10, 2010, 9:16AM

NC-SEN candidate Elaine Marshall (D)

A new poll out this morning suggests a second female Democratic Senator is not in the cards for North Carolina. The Rasmussen survey of 500 likely voters shows incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R) trouncing his Democratic opponent, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, 54-38.

Past polling from the race has shown Burr ahead, but not by this much. Rasmussen's last poll, taken a month ago, showed Burr leading 49-40. A PPP (D) poll from July 31 showed Burr ahead by just 2 in a three-way race that included Libertarian nominee Mike Beitler. (It should be noted here that Democrats generally view Rasmussen as GOP-leaning, though the pollster insists it is non-partisan.)

Marshall handily won the Democratic nomination over the national Democratic party choice, Cal Cunningham, in the June 22 runoff. National party figures hinted they would stay out of the race if Cunningham wasn't the nominee, and so far that seems to be the case. Marshall -- a long-running figure in state politics -- has found herself out-gunned versus the first-term Burr in the early part of the general election fight. The Republican just went on the air with his first TV ad, a clever spot that literally steals the two actors Sen. Kay Hagan (D) used to upset Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) in 2008.

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NC-SEN

GOPer Burr Brings Back Old Men From 2008 Dem Ad (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | September 9, 2010, 12:38PM

Ad from Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC), "Front Porch"

Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) has an incredible new ad out -- rehiring the actors who appeared in a popular Democratic ad from 2008, with their characters talking about how they bungled it last time.

Back in 2008, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee ran ads featuring two down-home old men on a porch, talking about how ineffectual and pro-Bush Sen. Elizabeth Dole was. The ad picked up a lot of attention. When election day finally rolled around, Dole lost to Democrat Kay Hagan by a 53%-44% landslide, and Barack Obama carried the state against John McCain by a margin of less than one percent -- the first Dem to carry the state for president since Jimmy Carter in 1976.

Now Burr's campaign has headhunted those two old men actors, snatching them away from the Dems for the incumbent's new spot, clearly aimed at voters who might have buyer's remorse. "Boy we sure got it wrong last election," the first man says.

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NC-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: GOPer Burr Up 9 In NC-SEN Race

Thomas Rhiel | August 6, 2010, 12:08PM

Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) and Sen. candidate Elaine Marshall (D-NC)

A new Rasmussen poll of the North Carolina Senate race gives Republican Sen. Richard Burr a nine-point lead over Democrat Elaine Marshall, who some polls have shown gaining ground on Burr. Rasmussen's latest numbers show Burr leading 49%-40%.

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NC-SEN

PPP Poll: Dem Marshall Catching Up To GOPer Burr In NC Senate Race

Thomas Rhiel | August 3, 2010, 11:37AM

Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) and Sen. candidate Elaine Marshall (D-NC)

Democrat Elaine Marshall is gaining ground on Republican Sen. Richard Burr in North Carolina's Senate race, a new poll shows. A PPP (D) survey (PDF) released today finds Burr with a thin lead over Marshall, 39%-37%. PPP's previous survey of the race from late June showed Burr ahead five points, 38%-33%.

PPP isn't the only pollster to find Marshall closing in on Burr. SurveyUSA polls from July 11 and July 25 show Burr's 10-point lead on the 11th shrinking to three points on the 25th.

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NC-SEN

Poll: GOP Sen. Burr Leads Dem Marshall By 7 In NC-SEN Race

Thomas Rhiel | July 27, 2010, 4:16PM

Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) and Sen. candidate Elaine Marshall (D-NC)

A new Civitas poll of the North Carolina Senate race finds incumbent Republican Sen. Richard Burr ahead with a 44%-37% lead over North Carolina Democratic Secretary of State Elaine Marshall.

"Burr continues to maintain a solid lead over Marshall despite the recent TV ads attacking his record," writes Civitas analyst Chris Hayes. "With Marshall having very little cross-over appeal to Republicans, her standing with the unaffiliated voter will play a key role come Election Day."

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NC-SEN

Internal Dem Poll: Dem Marshall (Barely) Leads GOP Sen. Burr In NC

Thomas Rhiel | July 23, 2010, 11:56AM

Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) and Sen. candidate Elaine Marshall (D-NC)

An internal survey of the North Carolina Senate race released by Democrat Elaine Marshall's campaign shows state Secretary of State Marshall narrowly ahead of her opponent, incumbent Republican Sen. Richard Burr. The poll, conducted by Lake Research Partners (D), has Marshall at 37%, Burr at 35%, and Libertarian candidate Mike Beitler at 5%.

Burr "is the most vulnerable incumbent Republican Senator in the country," write pollsters Celinda Jake and Joshua Ulibarri. "Elaine Marshall is in a strong position to defeat Burr if she has the funds to competitively communicate her message."

The internal poll is at odds with the most recent public polling of the race, which has shown Marshall trailing Burr by ten or more points points. A SurveyUSA poll from July 11 found Burr polling at 46% to Marshall's 36%, and a Rasmussen poll from July 6 found Burr leading Marshall 52%-37%.

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NC-SEN

PPP Poll: GOP Sen. Burr Narrowly Leads Dem Elaine Marshall In NC

Eric Kleefeld | July 6, 2010, 11:31AM

Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) and Sen. candidate Elaine Marshall (D-NC)

The new survey of the North Carolina Senate race by Public Policy Polling (D) shows Republican Sen. Richard Burr in a close race against Democratic Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, with very high undecideds and both candidates remaining heavily unknown.

The numbers: Burr 38%, Marshall 33%, and Libertarian candidate Michael Beitler at 10%, with a whopping 20% undecided. The survey of registered voters has a ±4.4% margin of error. In the previous poll from a month ago, which did not include Beitler and was also conducted during the Democratic primary runoff campaign, Burr led Marshall by 46%-39%. In a three-way match-up, the TPM Poll Average gives Burr 44.0%, Marshall 36.5%, and Beitler 8.0%.

PPP's Tom Jensen writes: "Burr's relatively anonymity for an incumbent Senator can be seen in his approval numbers. 28% of voters still have no opinion of him, with those who do splitting negatively. 34% like the job he's doing while 39% disapprove. Marshall is still pretty unknown too despite 14 years in statewide office and a recently completed campaign to secure her party's nomination. 58% of voters have no opinion about her with 22% seeing her favorably and 20% unfavorably. "

NC-SEN

Poll: GOP Sen. Burr Leads Dem Marshall By 10 Points

Eric Kleefeld | June 25, 2010, 6:19PM

Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) and Sen. candidate Elaine Marshall (D-NC)

The new SurveyUSA poll of the North Carolina Senate race gives Republican Sen. Richard Burr a ten-point lead over his Democratic opponent, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, who just won the Dem primary runoff this past Tuesday.

The numbers: Burr 50%, Marshall 40%, Libertarian Mike Beitler at 6%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4% margin of error. The TPM Poll Average gives Burr a lead of 46.8%-39.9%.

This contrasts with a Rasmussen poll from yesterday, which gave Burr only the narrowest of edges at 44%-43%, with Beitler not listed as a choice (though "some other candidate" attracted 7%).

NC-SEN

Rasmussen Poll: GOP Sen. Burr's Lead Down To One Point After Marshall's Dem Primary Win

Eric Kleefeld | June 24, 2010, 1:32PM

Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) and Sen. candidate Elaine Marshall (D-NC)

The new Rasmussen poll of the North Carolina Senate race shows Democratic Secretary of State Elaine Marshall enjoying a healthy bump in the polls against Republican Sen. Richard Burr, with Marshall only trailing by one point after her big win in Tuesday's Democratic primary runoff.

In this first poll since Marshall took the Dem nomination, Burr has 44% to Marshall's 43%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error. In Rasmussen's previous poll from three weeks ago, during the Dem runoff campaign, Burr led Marshall by a much stronger 50%-36%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Burr a lead of 46.8%-39.9%, though this average is composed almost entirely of data from before Marshall won the nomination. Burr has been by far the most vulnerable incumbent Republican Senator this cycle, due to an unusual political problem -- many polls have suggested that he is neither popular nor unpopular, but has lackluster approval ratings that show he hasn't made much of an impression with the voters at all. As such, this race will depend in large part on the overall political environment in this swing state, and the quality of the coming campaign against him.

NC-SEN

Elaine Marshall Wins Dem Senate Nod In North Carolina, Beating National Party's Choice

Eric Kleefeld | June 22, 2010, 8:45PM

NC Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D)

North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall has won the Democratic primary runoff for Senate, defeating the national Democratic Party's favored candidate Cal Cunningham in the race to go up against incumbent Republican Sen. Richard Burr.

With 49% of precincts reporting, Marshall leads by 61%-39%. In the first-round primary back on May 4, Marshall led with 36%, short of the 40% needed to avoid a runoff, with Cunningham in second with 27%. Looking ahead to the general election, the TPM Poll Average gives Burr a lead over Marshall of 47.6%-38.2% -- which was actually quite similar to his 47.1%-36.0% lead over Cunningham

So does this result represent a rejection of the party establishment? Not exactly. A Public Policy Polling (D) survey from mid-May found that both Marshall's and Cunningham's supporters thought that their candidate was the establishment's choice -- likely projecting their own opinions onto the party as a whole. Another way to look at it is that Marshall, who was first elected to statewide office in 1996 and unsuccessfully sought the Senate nomination in 2002, had been around long enough and earned her turn with the party's base, without committing any disqualifying sins.

NC-SEN

In NC SEN, Eight Seconds Of Silence Speak Volumes (VIDEO)

Evan McMorris-Santoro | June 11, 2010, 2:20PM

NC-SEN candidate Elaine Marshall (D)

North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) may have just found out that all silence is not golden. In a debate with former state Sen. Cal Cunningham, her opponent in the Democratic Senate primary runoff on June 22, Marshall was asked by moderators if she would ever support an increase in the federal income tax -- yes or no. For eight long seconds, Marshall said nothing. (Finally she said it would depend on the proposal, and reiterated her support for letting President Bush's tax cuts on the wealthy expire.)

Cunningham's team says that eight seconds of silence is all the Republicans will need to destroy Marshall in the fall. They're hoping the moment will come to define a runoff campaign that even Democrats involved admit few in North Carolina are paying much attention to less than two weeks before the final vote.

Marshall's campaign dismisses the attack. They blame the moderators for posing what they call a ridiculous question -- "there are no yes or no questions in this game," campaign spokesperson Thomas Mills told me -- and said that it was Cunningham who actually proved himself to have electability problems in the segment, not Marshall.

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NC-SEN

NC SEN Dems Meet In First Runoff Debate Tonight

Evan McMorris-Santoro | June 10, 2010, 4:44PM

NC-SEN Democratic candidates Elaine Marshall and Cal Cunningham

The two Democrats vying for the chance to face Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) will meet for their first debate of the Democratic primary runoff tonight. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall and Iraq War vet Cal Cunningham will square off at 7:00 p.m. eastern in Raleigh.

Marshall is hoping to carry the momentum she brought to the May 4 primary, when she came in first in a crowded field but failed to reach the 40% threshold required to prevent a June 22 runoff. Meanwhile Cunningham -- the national party -- is hoping to take advantage of the extra weeks of campaigning to make up ground. He came in second on May 4 but trailed Marshall by nine points.

Polls have suggested that voters are not particularly engaged in the runoff. A recent poll of the contest by Public Policy Polling (D) showed that both candidates have seen their name ID drop since the primary, a result of neither going on the air with ads since May 4. Tonight's debate may serve to put a little fire back in the contest.

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NC-SEN

Oil Politics Ooze Into North Carolina Senate Race

Evan McMorris-Santoro | June 8, 2010, 4:59PM

Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC)

It may be hundreds of miles away from the site of the still-leaking Deepwater Horizons rig, but the politics of America's worst oil spill has already made its way up the eastern seaboard to North Carolina. Sen. Richard Burr (R) -- a one-term incumbent on the long end of the list of targets for November -- is coming under fire from Democrats over his continued support for offshore drilling even as speculation mounts that oil from the BP spill could land on Carolina beaches before all is said and done.

Even before they choose who'll face Burr in the fall, state Democrats are aiming to make the spill an issue for Burr. In a new online campaign (the first salvo of which was obtained by TPMDC today) they say will expand after the June 22 Democratic primary runoff, they're claiming he's chosen to give BP a free pass as the environmental catastrophe spreads.

For his part, Burr has brushed off the attacks, criticizing Democrats for politicizing the ongoing catastrophe. Underneath it all is the specter of oil washing up on the NC shore, an event that could take oil politics in the state from the realm of philosophical debate to local hot-button issue.

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NC-SEN

New Polls Show Burr Well Ahead In NC SEN

Evan McMorris-Santoro | June 8, 2010, 12:56PM

NC Sen. candidates Elaine Marshall (D), Richard Burr (R) and Cal Cunningham (D)

A pair of new polls show Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC), who is on the list of Democratic targets this year, is well ahead of either of his potential Democratic challengers. The polls, one from Rasmussen and one from PPP (D), show Burr with double-digit leads over both Secretary of State Elaine Marshall and Iraq War vet Cal Cunningham, who will face Democratic voters in a runoff election June 22.

In the PPP poll, out today, Burr leads Marshall by a margin of 46-39. The poll was taken over the weekend among 601 registered voters and has a margin of error of 3.9%. The PPP numbers confirm a Rasmussen poll taken June 3. That poll, which surveyed 500 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3%, shows Burr leading Marshall by a margin of 50-36.

The numbers aren't any better for Cunningham, who is the national Democrats' choice for taking on Burr. In the PPP poll, Burr leads Cunningham by a margin of 46-35. In the Rasmussen poll, Burr leads 47-35.

The TPM Poll Average for the Burr-Cunningham matchup shows Burr ahead by a margin of 47.1-36.0. Against Marshall, the TPM Poll Average shows Burr ahead by a margin of 48.1-37.8.

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NC-SEN

Marshall Campaign To Cunningham Donors: Your Guy Can't Win The Runoff

Eric Kleefeld | June 1, 2010, 3:33PM

NC-SEN Democratic candidates Elaine Marshall and Cal Cunningham

The Elaine Marshall campaign sent a very interesting letter to Cal Cunningham's supporters in the June 22 North Carolina Democratic Senate primary runoff.

Three weeks ago, the Marshall campaign's general consultant Thomas Mills mailed the letter to a list of Cunningham donors taken from FEC filings. To read the full letter, provided to us by the Cunningham campaign, click here. The letter told recipients that Cunningham could not win, after Marshall came in first place in the initial round of the primary, and encouraged them to get behind Marshall:

In the runoff election, Mr. Cunningham has very little to build upon. Sec. Marshall's fundraising has taken off since her victory. She will have to resources to complete in every medium and has a stronger, broader base to build upon. In addition, the runoff electorate will be African-American, a population in while she overwhelmingly defeated Mr. Cunningham, and almost 50% will be women over 50 years old, Sec. Marshall's base.

With your support, Mr. Cunningham built an impressive campaign. However, as I said, he has no credible path to victory in the runoff. Sec. Marshall will be the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in North Carolina. I invite you to join our campaign so we can begin the process of defeating Richard Burr in November. (Emphasis in the original.)

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NC-SEN

Marshall Gets Big Boost In NC-SEN Dem Runoff

Evan McMorris-Santoro | May 19, 2010, 11:55AM

NC-SEN candidate Ken Lewis (D)

The third-place finisher in the May 4 North Carolina Democratic Senate primary endorsed Secretary of State Elaine Marshall this morning, increasing the chances that Marshall will defeat the Democratic establishment choice, Iraq veteran Cal Cunningham, in the June 22 runoff.

Marshall won the popular vote on May 4, leading the field with 36% of the total votes cast. Cunningham, who is the DSCC choice, came in second with 27%. Third place finisher Ken Lewis -- an attorney who was endorsed by most of the state's African American establishment -- took home 17% of the vote. Since none of the candidates crossed the 40% threshold required by state law, a runoff between Marshall and Cunningham was called.

Who Lewis would endorse in that race was one of the big questions for observers. Lewis brings with him a key component of the Democratic base, and who his voters choose June 22 could be the difference between victory and defeat. Today, Lewis made his choice, standing with Marshall at a press conference in Raleigh, NC.

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NC-SEN

Poll: Dem Senate Primary Runoff Tied In North Carolina

Eric Kleefeld | May 12, 2010, 12:25PM

NC-SEN Democratic candidates Elaine Marshall and Cal Cunningham

The new survey of North Carolina by Public Policy Polling (D) shows a tied race for the Democratic Senate primary runoff, set for June 22. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, who came in first place in the initial round last week, and former state Sen. Cal Cunningham, the unofficially-backed candidate of national Dems, have 36% each among likely runoff voters.

Interestingly, voters don't know that Cunningham is the favored candidate of national Dems. Respondents were asked who they thought was the nationally-backed candidate, with 33% saying Cunningham and 32% Marshall. The internals further show that each side's voters think their own candidate is the national favorite -- so there's no pro- or anti-establishment feeling going on here.

"Next month's runoff election is likely to see even lower turnout than last week's primary," writes PPP president Dean Debnam. "We're finding that Cunningham's supporters are more enthusiastic than Marshall's, and that could allow him to close the gap from last week's results between now and the runoff."

NC-SEN

Poll: GOP Sen. Burr Barely Ahead Of Dem Opponents

Eric Kleefeld | May 11, 2010, 11:27AM

Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC)

The new survey of North Carolina from Public Policy Polling (D) finds Republican Sen. Richard Burr vulnerable against either of his two Democratic challengers, who are currently fighting it out in a June 22 runoff.

The numbers, among registered voters: Burr edges North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall by 43%-42%, and leads former state senator and Iraq War veteran Cal Cunningham by 44%-39%. The margin of error is ±3.9%.

The TPM Poll Average has Burr leading Marshall by 47.1%-37.7%, and leading Cunningham by 47.7%-35.3%. It should be noted, however, that almost all of this polling predates the first round of the Democratic primary from last week, and the Dems are expected to increase their name recognition.

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NC-SEN

Marshall Leads First Public Poll Of NC Dem Senate Runoff

Evan McMorris-Santoro | May 6, 2010, 12:13PM

NC-SEN Democratic candidates Elaine Marshall and Cal Cunningham

The first public poll released since May 4 North Carolina Democratic Senate primary shows the top vote-getter in that contest, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, leading Iraq War vet Cal Cunningham in the June 22 runoff race. The Rasmussen poll shows Marshall in the lead by a margin of 42-37.

Marshall and Cunningham are battling it out for the right to face Sen. Richard Burr (R) in the fall. The runoff was declared when none of the Democratic candidates in the low-turnout primary reached 40% of the vote on May 4.

The poll was taken yesterday among 522 likely Democratic primary voters. The margin of error is 4.5%.

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NC-SEN

NC-SEN Dem Runoff Pits Big Local Name Against National Dems And Young Activists

Eric Kleefeld | May 5, 2010, 3:05PM

NC-SEN Democratic candidates Elaine Marshall and Cal Cunningham

Now that Democratic primary for Senate in North Carolina is headed to a runoff, and political operatives in the state are expecting a close fight for support -- that is, among those voters who will actually show up for a second primary. And voters will have their choice between a well-know candidate with a long history in the state, and the alternative candidate who has the unofficial support of the national Dems and the sort of profile that appeals to younger activists.

Secretary of State Elaine Marshall won 36% of the vote, followed by former state Senator and Iraq War veteran Cal Cunningham with 27%. North Carolina primaries have runoff elections if no candidate attains a 40% threshold, so this race will continue for another month and a half until the June 22 runoff, at which time Dems will then have a nominee to face GOP Sen. Richard Burr.

A Democratic source in North Carolina told TPMDC that Dems are expecting the race to be close all the way to June, and would be a contrast between Marshall, who was first elected statewide in 1996 and has cultivated a loyal following with the state's Democratic voters, with Cunningham's younger activist base who are looking for something relatively new.

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NC-SEN

AP: Runoff In NC Democratic Senate Primary

Evan McMorris-Santoro | May 4, 2010, 9:50PM

NC-SEN candidate Elaine Marshall (D)

The Associated Press has declared that no candidate has reached the 40% threshold required to win the Democratic Senate primary in North Carolina. That means that the top two winners, secretary of state Elaine Marshall and Iraq War vet Cal Cunningham, will face voters again on June 22.

Elaine Marshall, who lost her bid for the nomination in 2002, received the most votes, though not enough to win the nomination outright. Cunningham, who had the support of national Democrats, fared more poorly in the contest than his supporters might have hoped, according to early returns. Attorney Ken Lewis, who had the support of many of the state's most prominent African American leaders, failed to break 20% by the time the AP called the race.

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NC-SEN

Poll: GOP Sen. Burr Continues To Lead Unknown Dems, But Stays Under 50%

Eric Kleefeld | March 17, 2010, 1:58PM

Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC)

A new survey by Public Policy Polling (D) shows Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) continuing to lead his unknown Democratic rivals -- but at the same time, he continues to be a vulnerable incumbent.

Burr's approval rating among registered voters is only 35%, with a disapproval rating of 37%, and a whole 28% undecided -- he is neither popular nor unpopular, and instead has not really made any impression with the voters. Against a generic Democrat, Burr has 41% to the generic Dem's 39%.

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NC-SEN

GOP Sen. Burr: 'It Is Impossible For any Candidate To Get To The Right Of Me'

Eric Kleefeld | February 24, 2010, 10:47AM

Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC)

Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC), the single most vulnerable incumbent Republican Senator this year, has a message going into the campaign in his swing state: It's impossible for anybody to get to his right.

Burr is facing a primary challenge from two Republican candidates, Asheboro Councilman Eddie Burks and businessman Brad Jones. Burr is heavily favored to win his primary, and he told the Raleigh News & Observer that he's not too worried about it. "The fact is it is impossible for any candidate to get to the right of me from an ideological standpoint of my record," said Burr. "That is where anybody would have to attempt to make any progress in a Republican primary."

This is an interesting comment from a Senator in a swing state that narrowly voted for Barack Obama in 2008. As we've noted before, Burr's poll numbers show that he is neither popular nor unpopular, but that many voters still don't have an impression of him after the last five years of his service. Don't be surprised if the Democrats use this quote a lot, in order to introduce him to moderate voters.

Cal Cunningham

NC-SEN Dem Candidate Cunningham: 'It's Time To End The Filibuster In Its Current Form'

Eric Kleefeld | February 18, 2010, 6:07PM

NC-SEN candidate Cal Cunningham (D)

Cal Cunningham, a candidate for the Democratic nomination for Senate in North Carolina, is now seeking to make reform of the filibuster an issue in his campaign.

In an e-mail sent out to his campaign's supporter list, Cunningham lambastes incumbent Republican Sen. Richard Burr for holding up health care reform. But he says the real problem comes from the Senate's broken processes:

But the real travesty is that an outdated Senate procedural rule, the filibuster, empowers a few dozen obstructionists like Richard Burr to effectively guarantee the special interest groups get their way.

It's time to end the wheeling and dealing that smothers good ideas and stifles real progress in Washington.

It's time to end the filibuster in its current form. If you agree, sign my online petition to tell our elected and party leaders it's time to change the filibuster.

The full e-mail is available after the jump.

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Richard Burr

Rove To Raise Money For GOP Sen. Richard Burr

Eric Kleefeld | December 30, 2009, 11:14AM

Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) and Karl Rove.

Karl Rove will be hitting the political trail again, with an upcoming fundraiser for Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC).

Rove will headline the fundraiser in Raleigh on January 28. Back when Rove was a top adviser to then-President George W. Bush, he helped recruit Burr to run for the Senate seat that John Edwards vacated in 2004 when he ran for the presidency. Look for the North Carolina Democrats to use this Rove appearance to tie Burr to the unpopular Bush administration.

Burr is expected to be a top Democratic target in 2010. Burr's state has become a swing state after years as a Southern Republican area. It was narrowly carried by Barack Obama in 2008, and in another key election that year, Democrat Kay Hagan unseated incumbent Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole with a nine-point victory. Burr's approval ratings have been low in recent polls, but so have his disapproval ratings. It's not that he's unpopular, but many voters don't have an opinion at all about him, which will make his fate largely dependent on the overall political climate.

Richard Burr

Poll: GOP Sen. Burr Vulnerable In 2010, Only Narrowly Ahead Of Unknown Dems

Eric Kleefeld | December 16, 2009, 11:49AM

Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC)

A new survey of North Carolina by Public Policy Polling (D) finds first-term Republican Sen. Richard Burr in a vulnerable position headed into 2010, with narrow leads over three unknown Democratic challengers.

Burr leads former state Senator and Iraq War veteran Cal Cunningham by 45%-36%; he leads attorney Kenneth Lewis by 43%-37%; and he leads Secretary of State Elaine Marshall by 42%-37%. Against a generic Democrat, he has a statistically insignificant edge of only 42%-41%. The margin of error is ±4%.

Burr's approval rating is 35%, with 37% disapproval. As we've noted before, Burr's problem is not that he's unpopular -- it's that he hasn't made much of an impression at all with the voters, and his fate will rest heavily on the nature of the overall political cycle.

For all three Democrats, anywhere from 69%-81% of North Carolina voters don't have an opinion of them. And in the case of Kenneth Lewis, PPP's Tom Jensen speculates that respondents might have him confused with the very unpopular Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis. Jensen writes: "Lewis may need to invest down the road in some direct mail or Charlotte tv time to make sure voters in the area know he's not that Ken Lewis!"

Health Care

Sen. Hagan: 'Closely' Looking At Health Care Bill, Still Worried About Deficit

Christina Bellantoni | October 27, 2009, 5:13PM

Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC)

Freshman Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC) told reporters today she will be "looking very closely" at the health care bill as proposed by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

On a conference call with Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius about rural health care, Hagan reiterated she supports "a backstop option for people that don't have access to employer-sponsored health care."

"I'm going to definitely be looking very closely at this bill to see exactly what's in it," Hagan said. "I am committed to working with my colleagues on a final reform bill that hopefully is going to bring stability and security to American families and is not going to add one dime to our federal deficit."

Reporters also asked about the TPMMuckraker scoop yesterday about Blue Cross mailers asking customers to lobby Hagan to oppose the public option.

Transcript after the jump.

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NC-SEN

Poll: Burr's Ratings Still Lackluster -- But He's Ahead For Re-Election

Eric Kleefeld | October 8, 2009, 11:10AM

Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC)

A new survey by Public Policy Polling (D) finds that Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) continues to have lackluster approval ratings -- but that his prospects for re-election are simultaneously pretty good, a sign that the political climate is not good for Democrats in this 2010 race.

Burr's approval rating is only 36%, with 35% disapproval and a whopping 29% undecided -- as we've noted before, it's not that Burr is unpopular, but that he hasn't actually made a real impression with the voters during his term. In a way, this makes him a good barometer of the overall political climate in his state.

At the same time, Burr leads a generic Democrat by 45%-34%, and holds double-digit leads over six different named Democrats.

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NC-SEN

Poll: GOP Sen. Burr Vulnerable -- And Somewhat Unknown In His Home State

Eric Kleefeld | September 11, 2009, 1:28PM

Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC)

The new survey of North Carolina by Public Policy Polling (D) continues to show that Sen. Richard Burr is on shaky ground, with very low approval ratings -- but nevertheless, he is still able to lead potential 2010 Democratic opponents for now.

Burr's approval rating is only 38%, which would usually be considered abysmal for an incumbent. Interestingly, his disapproval is only 32%, with a whopping 29% undecided. Burr leads a generic Democrat by 45%-38%, and has various leads over named Democrats. For example, he leads Sec. of State Elaine Marshall -- who recently filed paperwork to create a campaign committee, but has not yet formally announced a candidacy -- by 42%-31%.

It's not that he's unpopular -- it's that in the time since he was first elected in 2004, he has thus far failed to actually make an impression on the voters.

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