2012 elections

Lieberman And Hutchison: We Could Have Won If We Weren't Retiring

Eric Kleefeld | January 24, 2011, 2:57PM

Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) and Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R-TX)

The three senators who have announced their 2012 retirements thus far appeared Sunday on This Week. Sens. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) and Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) both maintained that they think they could have won re-election -- and the other, Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND), only commented on why his state has turned against the status quo in Washington.

All in all, these reactions seemed to coincide with the chances that these same individual Senators' seats would stay with their current party or caucus.

Following Conrad's retirement, the Cook Report changed the rating of this race from "Likely Democratic" to "Toss Up." Before Lieberman announced his retirement, Cook had the race as only "Leans Democratic," due in part to the possibility that a three-way race could split the Dem vote and throw the seat to the Republicans -- but it is now the much safer "Likely Democratic." And Hutchison's seat has seen no change -- it was "Likely Republican" before she announced her retirement, and it is "Likely Republican" now.

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ND-SEN

Kent Conrad To Retire

Eric Kleefeld | January 18, 2011, 9:56AM

Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND)

In a big development for the 2012 Senate races, Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND) is set to announce that he is retiring, the Washington Post reports -- opening up a red-state seat that could be very tough for the Dems to hold.

A moderate Democrat, Conrad was first elected to the Senate in 1986. He initially retired in 1992, but was then elected to the state's other Senate seat in a late 1992 special election -- making him the only person to have ever held both of his state's Senate seats during the same day, when he was sworn in from one to the other. He was re-elected easily in 1994, 2000 and 2006.

He was one of the Democrats who helped sink the public option during the health care reform debates, but also helped to provide the 60th vote to pass the health care bill that ultimately did pass and was signed into law by President Obama.

His historically Republican state took an even bigger swing to the right in the past year, though. His fellow Dem Senator Byron Dorgan retired, with Republican John Hoeven easily winning the seat, and Democratic Rep. Earl Pomeroy was defeated for re-election.

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2012 elections

DeMint Targets Red-State Dem Senators In Fundraising Email

Eric Kleefeld | December 2, 2010, 9:42AM

Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC)

Sen. Jim DeMint is already hitting the virtual campaign trail for the 2012 Senate races, National Journal reports, with his Senate Conservatives Fund leadership PAC sending out a fundraising email targeting four red-state Democrats who voted against the earmark moratorium.

The targeted Senators are Jon Tester (D-MT), Ben Nelson (D-NE), Kent Conrad (D-ND) and the newly-elected Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), who just won a special election and is up for a vote again in 2012. All four of them hail from states that were carried by John McCain in 2008.

"These senators are nice folks but they have ignored the will of the American people and they must be replaced with principled conservatives in 2012," DeMint says in the email. "That's where the Senate Conservatives Fund comes in and it's where you can help."

DeMint then adds that his PAC will need "at least $4 million" for these four targeted races.

2010 elections

It Ain't Pretty: Senate Dems Struggle To Hold 59 Seats (CHARTS)

Christina Bellantoni | September 7, 2010, 12:35PM

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV)

Just how bad is it out there? Consider the TPM charts below showing the poll averages from each of the elections for Senate seats currently held by Democrats. Not a single Democrat in a contested race sits above 50 percent. Worse yet, many of them are outright losing to Republicans.

Election Day is still weeks off, and anything, and we mean anything, can happen to change these numbers on a dime. And it's important to remember that there are so many more factors to consider than just polls, which, as we've proven again and again, can be wrong. Many of these Democratic incumbents have mountains of cash in the bank and President Obama has continued to be a massive fundraising strength for Democratic senators despite his unpopularity nationally. Plus, some of these Dems are up against barely-ready-for-prime-time Republicans with extreme views, and those numbers seem like they could waver.

But if every TPM Poll Average culled from our PollTracker and seen below were to hold on through Nov. 2, Democrats would lose at least five seats, and possibly as many as eight.

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John Hoeven

Flashback: Republican Senate Candidate Hoeven Rejected GOP And Declared Himself A Democrat In 1996

Eric Kleefeld | January 27, 2010, 10:17AM

Gov. John Hoeven (R-ND)

Gov. John Hoeven (R-ND), the GOP frontrunner to win the seat of retiring Democratic Sen. Byron Dorgan, has an interesting wrinkle in his political history: When he first got into politics 14 years ago, he proclaimed himself to be a Democrat -- and strongly denied any implication that he was a Republican.

The North Decoder blog dug up a letter that Hoeven wrote to a local newspaper in 1996. At the time, Hoeven was president of North Dakota's state-run bank, and was eyeing a possible run for governor, which he ultimately did as a Republican in 2000. "I have always been moderate in my political views, but now that I am considering elective office, I realize I must join a political party and stick to it," Hoeven wrote in 1996. "I have decided to join the Democratic-NPL Party because I believe that is the best fit for my views."

Also in his 1996 letter, Hoeven strongly rejected the suggestion that he could be a Republican: "What people don't want is partisan politics as usual. The effort by overly partisan members of the Republican Party to cast me as one of their own is just that, partisan politics as usual." So we asked Hoeven's campaign manager, why did he end up becoming a Republican instead?

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ND-SEN

Poll: GOPer Hoeven Has Big Leads Over Ed Schultz, Heidi Heitkamp In ND-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | January 14, 2010, 5:05PM

MSNBC host Ed Schultz and Gov. John Hoeven (R-ND)

The new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of North Dakota finds Republican Gov. John Hoeven way ahead of both possible Democratic candidates in the race to pick up the seat of retiring Democratic Sen. Byron Dorgan.

Hoeven leads liberal talk show host Ed Schultz by 56%-32%, and he leads former state Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp (whom Hoeven previously defeated in the 2000 gubernatorial race) by 55%-34%.

As Kos notes, this is not because of a weakness of these individual candidates, but is because of the weakness of the Democratic Party itself in this red state: "Yet compared to last week's poll with Dorgan, Dems have only lost a few points against Hoeven, suggesting that it's general distaste for the Democrats that's driving down their numbers. Indeed, we asked favorability numbers for the two parties, and the Democratic Party is viewed favorably by just 25 percent of North Dakotans, and just 17 percent of Independents, versus 61 percent disapproval. Republicans, at 39-53, are not exactly popular, but in the battle of lesser evils, certainly in much better shape."

John Hoeven

GOP's Hoeven To Launch North Dakota Senate Campaign Today

Eric Kleefeld | January 11, 2010, 9:06AM

Gov. John Hoeven (R-ND)

Gov. John Hoeven (R-ND) will officially kick off his campaign for Senate today, Politico reports, as the Republican frontrunner for the seat of retiring Democratic Sen. Byron Dorgan.

Hoeven led Dorgan himself in the polls that had been done before Dorgan announced his retirement, though Hoeven was not actually in the race yet. With Hoeven's entry into the race, he is now the undeniable frontrunner, and the seat is at least a leaning pickup for the Republicans.

Democratic Rep. Earl Pomeroy, who is already elected statewide to North Dakota's only House seat, decided last week that he would not run. Other possible Democratic candidates are liberal talk show host Ed Schultz, who has been courted by the state Democrats, and former state Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp, who lost the 2000 gubernatorial race to Hoeven.

Ed Schultz

Ed On Ed: 'We're A Long Way From Any Kind Of Decision' On ND-Sen Bid

Christina Bellantoni | January 6, 2010, 6:56PM

MSNBC anchor Ed Schultz.

MSNBC's Ed Schultz said tonight on "The Ed Show" he is "a long way from any kind of decision" on whether to make a bid for the U.S. Senate as a Democrat.

"I can't say I'm even considering it right now," Schultz said. "I'm in a different place than politics right now."

His show is less than a year old, and Schultz said "to go from Fargo to 30 Rock is a dream come true for any broadcaster."

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ND-SEN

Dorgan Says He Would Have Won Reelection (VIDEO)

Christina Bellantoni | January 6, 2010, 6:13PM

Sen. Byron Dorgan told MSNBC's Ed Schultz tonight his surprise retirement decision was "no reflection" on the Democratic party and insisted he would have won reelection if he'd decided to stay.

Dorgan (D-ND) said he has served 40 years and now wants to do "some other things in life." He said he would prefer people ask, "Why did he leave so soon, rather than why did he stay so long."

"This gives me the opportunity to do that," he said.

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Earl Pomeroy

Democrat Earl Pomeroy Won't Run For North Dakota Senate Seat

Eric Kleefeld | January 6, 2010, 1:58PM

Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-ND).

Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D-ND) will not run for the open Senate seat of retiring Democratic Sen. Byron Dorgan, RealClearPolitics reports -- a serious blow to Dems in their efforts to keep this seat.

A Democratic source has also confirmed the news to TPMDC.

Third-term Republican Gov. John Hoeven is set to run for the seat, and starts out the race as a heavy favorite. In addition to Pomeroy, who would have been the strongest possible Democratic candidate, the party has also been courting liberal talk show host Ed Schultz, who launched his broadcasting career in North Dakota.

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John Hoeven

North Dakota GOP Governor Expected To Run For Dorgan's Seat

Eric Kleefeld | January 6, 2010, 11:01AM

Gov. John Hoeven (R-ND)

With Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) retiring, Republicans already have a top-tier candidate lined up to enter the race soon: Gov. John Hoeven, who was elected to a third term in 2008 with 74% of the vote.

State GOP chairman Gary Emineth told Politico: "I expect Gov. Hoeven to get in, and he's going to work through personal issues relating to his family, but I would be shocked if he's not in the Senate race soon."

North Dakota GOP political director Adam Jones explained to me that the family issues referred to here were simply a matter of Hoeven talking to his family about the prospect of a Senate run and a move to Washington. "First and foremost, the governor is a father and husband before he's a public servant," said Jones. "First he has to decide what's good for his family."

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Ed Schultz

Ed Schultz: North Dakota Dems Have Asked Me To Run For Senate (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | January 6, 2010, 10:28AM

MSNBC anchor Ed Schultz.

On MSNBC just now, liberal talk show host Ed Schultz said he was asked by top Democrats in his previous home state of North Dakota to run for the seat of retiring Democratic Sen. Byron Dorgan -- including outreach from Dorgan himself.

"Well last night, when Sen. Dorgan was talking to me, he asked me how old I was, and I went 'uh oh,'" said Schultz.

"I did get a phone call this morning from Merle Boucher, who's the [state] House Democratic leader, and he asked me to consider to run for the United States Senate seat in the state of North Dakota," said Schultz. "I asked him very point blank, 'Is this an official ask?' He said 'Yes, it is.'"

For now at least, Schultz isn't jumping at the opportunity, pointing to all the work he's put into his media career.

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2010 elections

Ripping Off The Band-Aid: A Flood Of Democrats Announce Retirements

Christina Bellantoni | January 6, 2010, 9:58AM

Senators Byron Dorgan (D-ND) and Chris Dodd (D-CT), and Colorado Governor Bill Ritter

After three high-profile retirements sent the political world spinning, Democrats are saying the morning after they don't expect any more in the Senate or among the governors.

Worried Democrats who are seeing poll numbers slip nationally wanted to start 2010 with the best chance they could for keeping the House, 60 Senate seats and the majority of governorships.

Surveying the political landscape, Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) and Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) were among the most vulnerable, and Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter's retirement could prevent a divisive Democratic primary for the senate.

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Byron Dorgan

Steele Says Dorgan Retirement Sign Of Vulnerability, Predicts More Dems Quitting

Eric Kleefeld | January 5, 2010, 7:09PM

RNC chairman Michael Steele

Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele issued the following statement on the retirement announcement of Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND):

"Today's announcement by Senator Byron Dorgan of North Dakota that he will not seek reelection in 2010 highlights just how vulnerable both Senate and House Democrats have become since deciding to walk in lockstep with President Obama's government-run policies. For nearly a year Congressional Democrats have been turning a deaf ear to the concerns of the American people and as the elections of 2010 approach, many of these same Democrats are deciding to simply leave office instead of risking certain defeat. While Senator Dorgan might be the first Democrat to announce his retirement this year, I predict he will not be the last as more and more Americans start moving away from the Democrat Party's liberal agenda and towards the Republican Party's core principles of less government, lower taxes, and greater personal responsibility."

ND-SEN

Republicans On Dorgan Surprise Retirement: 'Another Excellent Opportunity'

Christina Bellantoni | January 5, 2010, 6:57PM

Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND)

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is the first out with a reaction to the news Sen. Byron Dorgan is retiring and won't seek reelection in 2010, calling the surprise announcement a prime opportunity for the GOP to pick up a Democratic seat.

"North Dakota was always going to be a competitive seat for the Democrats to defend, and Senator Dorgan's retirement now provides us with another excellent pick-up opportunity for Republicans in 2010," said NRSC spokesman Brian Walsh.

Walsh said the development "is indicative of the difficult environment and slumping approval ratings that Democrats face as a result of their out of control tax-and-spend agenda in Washington."

"We fully intend to capitalize on this opportunity by continuing to recruit strong candidates who can win these seats in November," he said.

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Byron Dorgan

ND Dem Sen. Byron Dorgan Retiring

Evan McMorris-Santoro | January 5, 2010, 6:20PM

Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND)

Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) will not seek reelection this year. Dorgan has been trailing Gov. John Hoeven (R) in polls, even though Hoeven has not yet formally decided to run for the seat.

In a statement published on his website this evening, Dorgan said the potential for a tough race was not behind his decision.

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Byron Dorgan

Poll: Dem Sen. Byron Dorgan Vulnerable -- If GOP Gets Gov. John Hoeven To Run

Eric Kleefeld | December 21, 2009, 9:15AM

Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND)

A new Rasmussen poll finds that Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) could be seriously vulnerable in 2010 -- but only if the GOP manages to get just the right candidate to oppose him, third-term Republican Gov. John Hoeven.

When Dorgan is tested against Duane Sand, a Navy veteran who has previously run unsuccessfully for the Senate and the House, Dorgan leads by 52%-37%. But if Hoeven were the GOP candidate, Dorgan would trail by a 58%-36% margin.

Hoeven has previously declined a Senate run. The GOP tried to recruit him to run against Democratic Sen. Kent Conrad in the 2006 cycle, but he didn't make the race. Earlier this year, he said he would decide on a Senate run by September -- which has obviously passed already. But if he were to get in, he would start as the frontrunner.

From the pollster's analysis: "Along with Hoeven's popularity in the state, Dorgan has to contend with President Obama's unpopularity. John McCain carried North Dakota over Obama 53% to 45%, and now just 41% approve of how the president is doing his job. Fifty-eight percent (58%) disapprove."