2010 elections

DGA Hunkers Down For '10 Battle As Leaders Warn Democrats To Keep Races Local

Christina Bellantoni | November 4, 2009, 6:18PM

Democratic candidates for governor in 2010 need to avoided being baited by Republicans on national issues such as health care or climate change, Democratic officials said today in the wake of two big losses in New Jersey and Virginia.

Nathan Daschle, executive director of the Democratic Governors Association, told reporters the 37 races they have on the map next year will be tough. He advised that candidates talk about jobs, the party's ability to govern and local issues.

"Republicans are going to try to use federal issues to box in Democrats and we can't fall for that," he said. "We need to demonstrate our capacity to govern and our capacity to get results."

Daschle said candidates "cannot fall for the trap" of federal issues, saying that if GOP rivals are pushing on health care or climate change they probably don't know about state issues.

TPMDC asked Daschle about candidates getting pushed on health care, especially whether they would "opt-out" of the public option in its current form. It's an issue that hurt Creigh Deeds (D) in Virginia as liberals felt like he was moving too far to the right by saying he would likely opt-out.

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2009 elections

Obama Has Made The Calls

Christina Bellantoni | November 4, 2009, 1:49PM

New Jersey Gov.-elect Chris Christie (R), President Barack Obama, Virginia Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell (R)

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs tells TPMDC that President Obama has phoned the winners from last night's competitive East Coast races.

Gibbs said Obama has called Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell (R-VA), Gov.-elect Chris Christie (R-NJ) and Rep.-elect Bill Owens (D-NY).

Obama also phoned New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg, an independent who won reelection, and he left a message for Rep.-elect John Garamendi (D-CA).

As we reported earlier, Obama phoned the losing candidates last night.

The Washington Post has some more detail on the McDonnell call.

2009 elections

Obama Called Losers Last Night, Will Call Winners Today

Christina Bellantoni | November 4, 2009, 10:38AM

New Jersey Gov.-elect Chris Christie (R), President Barack Obama, Virginia Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell (R)

President Obama has not yet called Republican governors-elect Chris Christie in New Jersey or Bob McDonnell in Virginia.

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs told reporters in his gaggle today that Obama did not watch the returns last night, a trend which is not unusual since he didn't watch returns for his own races as they came in.

"He wanted them to enjoy their night with their families and supporters," Gibbs said.

Gibbs said he sent Obama some email updates throughout the night and spoke with him on the phone. (As for what the races mean, all politics is local, Gibbs said this morning.)

The president was "disappointed" that his "friend" Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) was defeated, Gibbs said.

The president did talk to Corzine and state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D-VA) last night.

Gibbs said Obama will call the victors today.

McDonnell is holding a press conference this afternoon.

2009 elections

Gibbs: Dem Losses In VA And NJ 'Didn't Involve The President'

Christina Bellantoni | November 4, 2009, 10:28AM

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs told reporters in his morning gaggle that Republican wins last night "demonstrate that voters" are working through "local issues that didn't involve the president."

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2009 elections

Red Tide: After Losses In Virginia and New Jersey What Will Obama Say?

Christina Bellantoni | November 3, 2009, 11:49PM

VA-GOV candidate Bob McDonnell and NJ-GOV candidate Chris Christie

President Obama will wake up Wednesday morning on the one-year anniversary of his historic election with two fewer Democratic governors he can call allies.

In New Jersey, Republican Chris Christie unseated Gov. Jon Corzine (D). Virginia Republicans swept the statewide races and picked up seats in the state house as Republican former attorney general Bob McDonnell walloped state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) by more than 15 points.

Here's what we know:

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Michael Steele

Steele To Meet The Press Tomorrow

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 3, 2009, 10:52PM

RNC Chairman Michael Steele

After hopping a plane to New Jersey earlier this evening as returns began to show a victory for Republican governor-elect Chris Christie, RNC chair Michael Steele will head back to the airport to fly back to to D.C. and gloat to the press about his party's dual wins in both New Jersey and Virginia.

Steele will host a 10 a.m. press conference at RNC headquarters in Washington, where he'll talk about tonight's victories (and maybe a defeat, too -- as of this post, the Democratic nominee is still leading in NY-23). The victory lap comes less than a year after Steele began his turbulent tenure as the head of the Republican party, and it's fair to say it will be the first objectively great day for Republicans since President Obama's victory last November. Expect to see a lot of smiles from a lot of tired Republican operatives who won't be getting much sleep tonight.

NJ-GOV

New Jersey: Christie Wins After Neck-and-Neck Race

Rachel Slajda | November 3, 2009, 10:13PM

Fmr. US Attorney Chris Christie

The Associated Press and MSNBC have called it for Republican Chris Christie in the New Jersey gubernatorial election.

With 71 percent of precincts reporting, Christie had 50 percent of the vote. His opponent, Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine, trailed with 44 percent.

As results trickled in tonight, Christie held the lead but the race was too close to call. But as the night wore on, signs that Christie would take it appeared. RNC chairman Michael Steele flew from Virginia Governor-elect Bob McDonnell's victory party to New Jersey. And bellwether counties started going to Christie.

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NJ-GOV

New Jersey Still Too Close To Call

Rachel Slajda | November 3, 2009, 9:54PM

Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R) and Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ)

With 64 percent of precincts reporting, Republican Chris Christie is leading Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine 50 to 44 percent in the New Jersey gubernatorial race.

The race is still too close to call. With important bellwether precinct numbers yet to come in, Corzine has been holding on.

But, as TPMDC's Eric Kleefeld explains, two counties which voted against Corzine in the last gubernatorial race -- Monmouth and Ocean -- have swung even further away from the governor this year.

We're still a ways away from calling it, but things aren't looking good for Corzine.

Late update: In a more troubling sign for the governor, GOP sources tell TPMDC RNC Chairman Mike Steele is boarding a plane bound for New Jersey.

NJ-GOV

Christie Takes Early Lead In New Jersey

Rachel Slajda | November 3, 2009, 8:43PM

Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) and Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R)

Republican Chris Christie has taken an early lead in New Jersey, leading Gov. Jon Corzine 52 to 42 with 35 percent of precincts reporting. Chris Daggett, the Independent candidate, trails with six percent of the vote.

The all-important Independent vote appears to be going to Christie, with an early CNN exit poll showing 58 percent of Independents voting for the Republican candidate and only 33 percent going to Corzine. According to the poll, 28 percent of New Jersey voters are Independents.

CNN's exit polling also shows that 38 percent of voters said they were looking for change as the number one quality in a candidate. Most of those voted for Christie.

VA-GOV

Pre-Spin Battle: Dems Say Tonight Not Obama Referendum But Were Happy To Blast Bush

Christina Bellantoni | November 3, 2009, 6:22PM

The White House for more than a week has been saying today's elections don't reflect on the 2010 landscape for the Democratic party or President Obama.

That's been echoed by Democrats across the spectrum today as the party braces for a probable loss in Virginia, a possible loss in the 23rd Congressional district in New York and a toss-up in New Jersey.

"I don't think looking at the two gubernatorial races, you can draw with any great insight what's going to happen a year from now any more than if Jake's team wins tomorrow night I can tell who's going to win next year's World Series," White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said today.

"We don't look at either of these gubernatorial races or the congressional race as something that portends a lot for our legislative efforts going forward or political prospects in 2010," he added.

"In 2001, President Bush lost Virginia and New Jersey. I don't believe that it impacted his legislative initiatives going forward," Gibbs said.

But TPM intern superstar Darius Tahir went searching, and found plenty of examples of Democrats saying Bush was doomed.

Read more »

NJ-GOV

Christie Camp Calls For State Investigation Of Dem Robocalls Promoting Indy Candidate Daggett

Eric Kleefeld | November 3, 2009, 3:29PM

NJ-GOV Candidates Chris Daggett (I), Chris Christie (R) and Gov. Jon Corzine (D)

The Christie campaign is complaining to the state about a tactic from the New Jersey Democrats -- who have admitted to making robocalls to promote independent candidate Chris Daggett.

The calls happened in Somerset County, an area where Christie should likely do very well, and where any addition in vote for Daggett would likely come more from Christie's column than Corzine's.

The Christie campaign has sent a letter to ELEC (the state equivalent of the Federal Election Commission), demanding an investigation into the calls and an immediate directive that the Dems stop it, on the grounds that the calls would constitute an illegal in-kind contribution from the Dems to Daggett.

Keep in mind that these calls have been done in the final two days of a campaign -- meaning there's really no way to feasibly stop them, or to undo any potential damage that they might inflict.

NJ-GOV

Daggett Votes: I Practiced Finding My Name On The Sample Ballot

Eric Kleefeld | November 3, 2009, 2:32PM

Chris Daggett, independent candidate for governor in New Jersey

Independent New Jersey gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett voted this morning -- in a process that involved some jokes about his obscure location on many county ballots, mixed in among numerous minor candidates.

As the Star-Ledger reports:

After taking a few minutes to fill out his ballot a poll worker said, "he can't find his name!"

When Daggett emerged he responded, "I found my name. I practiced on the sample ballot."

On my own absentee ballot, issued by Essex County, Daggett's name was ninth out of 12 choices. Corzine was first, and Christie was second, with a whole lot of lesser-known independent and third-party candidates between Daggett and the two major nominees.

NJ-GOV

Menendez Uses Bush Against Christie On Election Day

Eric Kleefeld | November 3, 2009, 12:28PM

Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ)

At a get-out-the-vote rally today in New Jersey, Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ) continued to use the legacy of the unpopular George W. Bush as a cudgel against Republican gubernatorial nominee Chris Christie.

Menendez asked the crowd: "Are you going to vote for a Bush pioneer who will try to implement the same policies that led us into the worst economy since the Great Depression?"

Christie served as a U.S. Attorney in the Bush administration, and before that had raised money for the Bush 2000 campaign.

NJ-GOV

New Jersey Dems Admit To Robocalls Promoting Indy Candidate Daggett In GOP County

Eric Kleefeld | November 2, 2009, 5:52PM

Chris Daggett, independent candidate for governor in New Jersey

The New Jersey Democrats have been caught in a dirty trick in the home stretch of the gubernatorial race, PolitickerNJ reports, sending out robocalls promoting independent Chris Daggett to a Republican-leaning county.

The calls went to Somerset County, which has usually been a Republican stronghold. It did vote for Barack Obama in 2008, but it also voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004, and for the GOP candidates for governor in 2001 and 2005, and for Senate in 2000, 2002, 2006 and 2008. (In two of those elections listed, Jon Corzine was the Democratic nominee.)

State Party chairman Joe Cryan had previously denied that the calls came from the Dems, though they did in fact say at the end that they were paid for by "NJDSC" (New Jersey Democratic State Committee), and listed the party's address. A party spokesperson has told PolitickerNJ that Cryan was unaware of the calls when he'd made the denial.

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NJ-GOV

Polls Show No Obvious Winner In New Jersey

Eric Kleefeld | November 2, 2009, 5:37PM

Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R) and Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ)

Let's take a look at the final polls in New Jersey, which present a mixed bag of results and really no clear verdict as to who will win the close race between Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine and Republican former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie.

This race will really come down to two big questions: a) Which side is the better get-out-the-vote operation, and b) If independent Chris Daggett loses support in the voting booth, how many of his breakaway voters will be Corzine-leaners or Christie-leaners? Given past history in New Jersey, the Democrats probably have the edge on the first question. The second question, however, is simply unknowable at this time.

• The Monmouth poll has Corzine ahead 43%-41%, Daggett at 8%, with a ±3.7% margin of error. The previous poll from late last week had Christie ahead by 43%-42%-8%. The movement from one poll to the next was not statistically significant.

Read more »

NJ-GOV

Did Christie Campaign Violate Copyright Law, Steal Stock Video?

Eric Kleefeld | November 2, 2009, 3:59PM

Fmr. US Attorney Chris Christie

The Christie campaign has apparently been caught in another copyright violation issue, in addition to their run-in with Monty Python. This time, it involves the apparent unlicensed pilfering of copyrighted stock footage -- complete with the anti-piracy watermarks.

As the Blue Jersey site discovered, a new Christie Web video featured stock footage that still had watermarks in them from Pond5, a stock footage licensing company, suggesting that the campaign had not paid to use the footage and was instead using the samples. The watermarks were in some instances covered up with on-screen text, but were still visible to the discerning eye.

The video has since been taken down, but here are some still shots:

(Click images to enlarge.)

"Thanks for bringing this to our attention," Pond5 CEO Tom Bennett told us. "It does appear that the Christie campaign has used stock footage from Pond5 without licensing it, in violation of both our license agreement and copyright law. We have brought this to our legal counsel and will be determining a course of action soon."

Bennett also informed us that to his knowledge, the company has not had any contact with the Christie campaign at this time. The Christie campaign has not returned our requests for comment.

Late Update: The video has now been restored on Christie's YouTube page -- apparently in a rush, as it was done with watermarks and all. Bennett told us that at 3:43 p.m. ET, someone associated with the Christie campaign bought permissions for all the relevant videos. "So it looks like they're doing damage control," Bennett said.

NJ-GOV

Christie Could Be Sued By...Monty Python?

Eric Kleefeld | November 2, 2009, 3:30PM

Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R) Chris Christie, and former Monty Python member Terry Jones

Chris Christie could soon be facing legal action from some very illustrious people: Monty Python.

This comes after the Christie campaign used footage of a sketch from Monty Python's Flying Circus, without having sought permission, for a Web video. The video has since been taken down, but was preserved by Monty Python and given to the Huffington Post.

Monty Python's Terry Jones, perhaps best known for his screechy-voiced female characters (especially Brian's mother Mandy in Life of Brian), told the HuffPo that the group is strongly considering a lawsuit for copyright infringement.

"It is totally outrageous that a former US Attorney knows so little about the law that he thinks he can rip off people," said Jones. "On the other hand -- another of Bush's legal appointees was Alberto Gonzales and he didn't seem to know much about the law either."

NY-23

Democrats Delight: Say Moderates Pushed From GOP

Christina Bellantoni | November 2, 2009, 2:37PM

NY-23 Candidate Doug Hoffman (Conservative)

There's no doubt that even though they are facing the possibility of triple losses tomorrow, Democrats have found a talking point they are comfortable with.

On the Sunday shows yesterday and in conversations with reporters today, Democrats from the White House press secretary to the national campaign committees say moderates clearly aren't welcome in the Republican Party.

They found this message in the election in New York's 23rd Congressional district, where conservative party candidate Doug Hoffman is surging.

There have been few Republicans to say this publicly, so the Democrats are saying it for them. All day long Democratic operatives have emailed TPMDC links to news stories suggesting the GOP is in "chaos" or the party is in "turmoil."

President Obama's White House has done a nice job of picking off the social moderates, elevating Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman to be ambassador to China and Rep. John McHugh (R-NY) to be Secretary of the Army. (That's why the NY-23 seat is vacant.)

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs jumped on the bandwagon this afternoon, saying the Hoffman surge in New York is "fascinating."

Read more »

NJ-GOV

Poll: Corzine Edging Christie By 43%-41%

Eric Kleefeld | November 2, 2009, 1:27PM

Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) and Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R)

The new Monmouth poll of the New Jersey gubernatorial race gives Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine a narrow lead over Republican Chris Christie, in an election that is really anyone's guess going into Election Day tomorrow.

The numbers: Corzine 43%, Christie 41%, and independent Chris Daggett 8%, with a ±3.7% margin of error. This poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday. In the previous poll released yesterday, which was conducted Wednesday through Friday, Christie had a lead of 43%-42%-8%, not a statistically significant change.

From the pollster's analysis: "This race is still as close as it can be. It's possible that President Obama's visit boosted the governor's chances. But it is also likely that some anti-Corzine voters are still unsure of casting their lot with Christie. If the undecided vote breaks largely for the Republican, this race could be a squeaker."

Chris Daggett

Poll: Corzine Leads Christie By 41%-37%

Eric Kleefeld | November 2, 2009, 1:12PM

Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R) and Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ)

The new Democracy Corps (D) poll of New Jersey finds Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine with a narrow lead over his Republican opponent Chris Christie, contrary to other polls today that have put Christie ahead.

The numbers: Corzine 41%, Christie 37%, and independent Chris Daggett 15%, with a ±4% margin of error. Last week, Corzine was ahead by 43%-38%-12%.

When Daggett-supporters are pushed to support a major candidate, Corzine is ahead by 47%-41%, which is consistent with other polls that have shown Daggett currently taking more votes away from Corzine than Christie. Third-party candidates often lose significant support on Election Day -- so this race could really turn on how many votes Daggett loses in the voting booth, and how many of those people are Corzine-leaners or Christie-leaners.

NJ-GOV

Poll: Christie Up Over Corzine 45%-42%

Eric Kleefeld | November 2, 2009, 12:20PM

Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) and Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R)

The new SurveyUSA poll of the New Jersey gubernatorial race gives Republican nominee Chris Christie a narrow lead over Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine in the home stretch.

The numbers: Christie 45%, Corzine 42%, and independent Chris Daggett 10%, with a ±4.1% margin of error. Late last week, Corzine and Christie were tied at 43%-43%-11%.

The pollster's analysis supplies its own caveats for the poll data: "On 2 of the 3 nights, much of NJ was home watching local teams play in the World Series. And: 1 of the 3 nights was Halloween, when families with children are home in uniquely large numbers. As such, results of this survey should be interpreted cautiously: a narrow Corzine victory is not inconsistent with the data, but a narrow Christie win is more consistent with the data."

The final polls have been showing some momentum for Christie in the home stretch. Let's see whether it holds true tomorrow night, or whether the New Jersey Dems' ground game puts Corzine over the top.

NJ-GOV

Poll: Christie Ahead of Corzine By 42%-40%

Eric Kleefeld | November 2, 2009, 8:54AM

Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R) and Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ)

The new Quinnipiac poll of the New Jersey gubernatorial races gives Republican nominee Chris Christie a slim lead over Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine -- a late Christie surge, after Quinnipiac last poll had put Corzine ahead.

The numbers: Christie 42%, Corzine 40%, and independent Chris Daggett 12%, with a ±2.5% margin of error. In the previous poll from last week, Corzine had 43%, Christie 38%, and Daggett 13%.

The pollster's analysis says that as of right now, Daggett is taking more votes away from Corzine than he is from Christie: "Daggett is the key to an incredibly close New Jersey election."

NJ-GOV

Poll: Christie Ahead Of Corzine By 47%-41%

Eric Kleefeld | November 1, 2009, 11:57PM

Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) and Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R)

The new survey of the New Jersey gubernatorial race from Public Policy Polling (D) gives Republican nominee Chris Christie a six-point leader over Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine.

The numbers: Christie 47%, Corzine 41%, and independent Chris Daggett 11%, with a ±3.1% margin of error. The previous poll from last week gave Christie a narrower lead of 42%-38%-13%.

From the pollster's analysis: "If Christie does indeed end up as the winner it will be an indication that you can only be so unpopular as an elected official and still hope to get reelected. 57% of voters in the state have an unfavorable opinion of Corzine while only 34% view him positively. Christie isn't exactly Mr. Popularity, as only 43% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of him to 42% negative, but compared to Corzine those numbers look pretty good."

Late Update: Another poll from today, Monmouth poll, gives Christie an edge of 43%-42%, plus Daggett with 8%, with a ±3% margin of error. The previous poll from two weeks ago had the race tied at 39%-39%-14%.

NJ-GOV

More Polls Show A Tight Race In New Jersey

Eric Kleefeld | October 30, 2009, 2:33PM

Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R) and Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ)

Two new polls show that the New Jersey gubernatorial race continues to be neck and neck between Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine and Republican former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie.

• In the new Rasmussen poll, respondents' initial preferences were Christie 42%, Corzine 39%, and independent Chris Daggett 12%. After Daggett supporters were asked if they were sure they would vote for him -- along with the process of pushing undecideds who might lean towards a candidate -- the result becomes a Christie lead of 46%-43%-8%, with a ±3% margin of error.

• The new Stockton College/Zogby poll: Corzine 40%, Christie 39%, and Daggett 14%, with a ±3% margin of error.

• The new Neighborhood Research (R) poll: Christie 42%, Corzine 35%, Daggett 8%, with a ±5.3% margin of error.

So which poll, out of these three or any others, should you believe? Keep in mind that a poll with Corzine up by two points is not significantly different from a poll with Christie up by two points, statistically speaking. The vast majority of polls have shown this race to be within just a couple points -- and they're probably right.

VA-GOV

White House Taking 'Long View' And Not Worried About Tuesday's Elections

Christina Bellantoni | October 30, 2009, 2:07PM

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs

Whatever happens Tuesday in New Jersey and Virginia, that doesn't necessarily reflect on President Obama, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said today.

Gibbs reminded reporters that Democrats won in both states in 2001 when Republican President George W. Bush had just taken office. At that time, Bush was at the height of popularity following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

But on Nov. 6, 2001 Democrat Mark Warner (now a U.S. senator) was elected in Virginia and Democrat Jim McGreevey won in New Jersey.

"I don't think anybody thought President Bush was significantly hampered by that ... Whatever the results are I don't think they portend a lot in dealing with the future," Gibbs said during the briefing.

"We continue to take the long view on what's going on in Washington and in the country," Gibbs said.

"We'll have time to dissect" the results after Tuesday, he said.

TPMDC hears that Obama is planning to be out of town on Wednesday at an event in the middle of the country.

NJ-GOV

Poll: Corzine Ahead Of Christie 43%-42%

Eric Kleefeld | October 30, 2009, 6:43AM

Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) and Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R)

The new Fairleigh Dickinson poll of the New Jersey gubernatorial race gives Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine a slim edge over his Republican opponent Chris Christie.

The numbers: Corzine 43%, Christie 42%, and independent Chris Daggett 6%, with a ±4% margin of error. (Daggett was not listed as a choice, but was a voluntary answer.) This is basically unchanged from three and a half weeks ago, when Corzine was ahead 43%-42%-4% on this ballot test.

The pollster's analysis shows just how much an effect the presence of Daggett and other independents will have, and how the result can depend on how many voters he keeps or where others go: "When Daggett's name is read in an interview along with Jon Corzine's and Chris Christie's names, he gets 14% of the vote, drawing slightly more Democrats than Republicans, while Christie edges Corzine in a statistical tie, 41%-39%. But when the name of another independent candidate is read--the obscure Gary Steele--Steele gets 3% of the vote, draws off slightly more Republicans than Democrats, and Corzine beats Christie 46%- 41%."

NJ-GOV

Poll: Corzine And Christie Tied, Corzine Ahead Among Absentee Voters

Eric Kleefeld | October 29, 2009, 6:17PM

Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R) and Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ)

The new SurveyUSA poll of New Jersey has the race tied between Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine and Republican challenger Jon Corzine.

The numbers: Corzine 43%, Christie 43%, and independent Chris Daggett 11%, with a ±4% margin of error. Last week, Christie was ahead by 41%-39%-19%. It's interesting to see that Daggett has fallen in the run-up to election day, as often happens with third-party candidates, and that Corzine may have been the beneficiary.

Also, the pollster's analysis says that Corzine has already banked a lead in absentee voters: "Corzine leads among the 11% of voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot. The candidates are even among voters who have not yet voted but say they will on or before election day. At this hour, the contest is a coin-toss. The lower the turnout, the better for Corzine."

NJ-GOV

Poll Gives Christie One-Point Lead

Eric Kleefeld | October 29, 2009, 4:43PM

Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) and Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R)

The new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of New Jersey gives Republican Chris Christie a one-point lead, in a race that has been on a knife's edge between him and Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine.

The numbers: Christie 42%, Corzine 41%, and independent Chris Daggett with 14%, with a ±4% margin of error. Four weeks ago, Christie led by 46%-42%-7%.

Both major candidates are viewed negatively by voters. Corzine's favorable rating is only 38%, with 55% unfavorable, while Christie is at 43%-46%. Daggett is in positive territory, but only with 35%-16% and nearly half of voters having no opinion of him.

NJ-GOV

Poll: Corzine Ahead Of Christie By 43%-38%

Eric Kleefeld | October 29, 2009, 3:53PM

Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R) and Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ)

The new Democracy Corps (D) poll of New Jersey gives Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine a five-point lead over his main rival, Republican former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie.

The numbers: Corzine 43%, Christie 38%, and independent Chris Daggett 12%, with a ±4% margin of error. A week ago, Corzine led in the three-way poll by 42%-39%-13%.

When Daggett-supporters are pushed to choose between one of the top two candidates, Corzine's five-point lead holds steady at 47%-42%. This would suggest that Daggett is taking from both candidates equally at this point, despite a general impression during much of this race that he's taken more votes from Christie.

NJ-GOV

Report: White House Intervened In New Jersey Race

Eric Kleefeld | October 29, 2009, 9:36AM

Pres. Obama and Gov. Jon Crozine (D-NJ)

New Jersey Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine, who seriously trailed Republican nominee Chris Christie in polls over the summer but has caught up in the past few weeks, has reportedly seen a heavy increase in White House involvement in his campaign during that same period of recovery.

The Politico reports that the White House sent senior adviser David Axelrod and political director Patrick Gaspard to New Jersey in August, to express the White House's concerns about the race. One Corzine aide said there was a message being sent that Corzine should consider dropping out of the race -- which Corzine never would have done -- but that allegation was denied by White House officials.

Corzine did end up replacing his pollster, Mark Mellman, with Obama pollster Joel Berenson, who is also experienced in New Jersey politics. In the time since then, Corzine has focused his attacks against Christie on key issues like health care -- especially his accusation that Christie's health insurance proposals would result in women losing mammogram coverage -- and allegations of Christie abusing his office as U.S. Attorney.

Health Care

Governors (And Candidates) Span Spectrum On Public Option Opt-Out

Christina Bellantoni | October 28, 2009, 6:38PM

President Obama addresses National Governors Association

It's been two days since Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid introduced a health care bill with a public option that will allow states to opt-out.

As TPMDC wrote earlier, we still don't know the mechanism for how the states would get out (or in, if that were to happen) of the public option, but we took stock of some of the candidates for governor in Tuesday's races.

Our question: Would your state opt out of a public option?

The basic tally:

In New Jersey, Gov. Jon Corzine (D) would not. Challenger Chris Christie (R) would.

In Virginia, Bob McDonnell (R) would opt out and Creigh Deeds (D) is leaning toward opting out.

Read more »

NJ-GOV

Joe Wilson To Appear At Unauthorized Rally For Chris Christie

Eric Kleefeld | October 28, 2009, 12:01PM

Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC) and Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R)

Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC), the right-wing hero who shouted "You lie!" during President Obama's speech to Congress, is headed to New Jersey this Sunday to get out the vote for Republican gubernatorial nominee Chris Christie -- but Christie certainly won't be there.

The rally was organized by local Tea Party activists, not the Christie campaign. It will be held in the Republican stronghold of Morris County, which voted 54%-46% for John McCain even as the state went 57%-42% for Obama.

The rally's organizer pointed out that Christie won't be coming, even though "he's only going to be half a mile away."

It should be noted that Christie is not having Republican names known for their right-wing credentials campaigning for him in this socially liberal and Democratic state. He's sticking to safer names like Rudy Giuliani, or moderate former Governors Tom Kean and Christie Whitman. The most conservative he's going is Tim Pawlenty, who is much less scary to New Jersey than a guy like Wilson.

NJ-GOV

Corzine And Bill Clinton Rally New Jersey On Democratic Issues

Eric Kleefeld | October 28, 2009, 11:20AM

Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) and Fmr. Pres. Bill Clinton

Former President Bill Clinton rallied support for New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine last night, headlining a Democratic Party fundraiser in the party stronghold of Essex County, and then a rally in the nearby town of Little Falls -- with a clear focus on encouraging people to vote for Corzine out of the state's fundamental agreement on Democratic issues.

"It is an important election and elections matter," said Corzine, whose own net approval ratings are consistently in negative territory. "Elections aren't really about the candidate, they're about the direction the society will take, that New Jersey will take. Just think back to 2000, and think what would have happened if the right guy who'd gotten elected had been sworn in."

Corzine said how if Al Gore had been sworn in after the 2000 election, the country wouldn't have lost millions of jobs, and there would not have been a war of choice -- focusing on the unpopularity of the Bush administration, which just so happened to have appointed Corzine's Republican opponent Chris Christie as a U.S. Attorney.

When Bill spoke, he talked about the Republican Party's direction. "The Republicans seem to have two strategies at the state and national level," said Bill. "One, they left us a terrible mess and they complain that the President isn't fixing it quickly. And second, their strategy is to just hope that we mess up."

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NJ-GOV

Poll: Corzine Ahead of Christie By 43%-38%

Eric Kleefeld | October 28, 2009, 6:36AM

Gov. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) and Former US Attorney Chris Christie (R)

The new Quinnipiac poll in New Jersey gives Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine a five-point lead over Republican Chris Christie.

The numbers: Corzine 43%, Christie 38%, and independent Chris Daggett 13%, with a ±2.8% margin of error. Two weeks ago, Christie had an edge of 41% to Corzine's 40%, and Daggett was at 14%.

This poll suggests that Daggett is taking more votes away from Christie than Corzine, with his voters listing Christie as their second choice by a 43%-27%. This runs contrary to a Public Policy Polling (D) survey that showed Corzine as their second choice, but keep in mind these sub-samples have very high margins of error.

From the pollster's analysis: "You could see it coming. Gov. Jon Corzine's numbers crept steadily up and Christopher Christie's steadily shrank and now, for the first time, we have Corzine ahead. But don't be in a hurry to mark this election as over. Christopher Daggett changed it from 'ABC' - Anybody But Corzine - to a real three-way scrap. But a lot of Daggett's voters say they might change their minds by Election Day. Where will they go?"