Medicare

GOP Maps Out Medicare Messaging Strategy Post NY-26

Brian Beutler | May 26, 2011, 2:14PM

There's no denying that Medicare is still the central political issue of the moment, and Republicans are still trying to figure out if they can message their way out of the hole they've dug for themselves.

Here's a glimpse into how that's playing out behind the scenes. The day after the Republicans lost the special election in NY-26, a spokeswoman for Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-CO), Catherine Mortensen, sent the following internal email to some of her colleagues on the Hill.

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Medicare

Boehner Offers First Reaction To GOP's NY-26 Defeat

Brian Beutler | May 26, 2011, 1:08PM

House Speaker John Boehner

For the most part, Republicans will insist that they lost the NY-26 special election because a self-funded pseudo-tea partier trashed their candidate, Jane Corwin.

In his first public response to Tuesday's defeat, House Speaker John Boehner deviated slightly from that script.

"Special elections are just that: they're special. And when you look at what happened in this election, you had a third-party candidate who spent nearly $3 million attacking the Republican candidate. And I could be somewhat critical of how the campaign was run. But the fact is we didn't win. And the small part of the reason we didn't clearly had to do with Medicare.

Emphasis added.

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NY-26

DCCC Chair Steve Israel: Medicare Has Put House Back In Play

Benjy Sarlin | May 26, 2011, 12:38PM

Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY)

How big is the Medicare issue for Democrats in 2012? Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY), chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, told reporters on Thursday that the House is already back in play thanks to the GOP's budget.

"I did not expect to be able to tell you the House was in play as early as May, but today I can tell you that I fundamentally believe the House of Representatives is in play and that the Democrats can win a majority," he said at a press conference with his Senate counterpart, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair Patty Murray (D-WA).

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Medicare

Paul Ryan And Bill Clinton Chat Backstage About Medicare, NY-26 (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | May 25, 2011, 3:36PM

Former President Bill Clinton (D) and Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI)

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) is not backing down from his Medicare privatization proposals, in the wake of the GOP's stunning defeat in the NY-26 special election. And as ABC News reports, he's getting some friendly advice from an unlikely source: Democratic former President Bill Clinton.

The two were seen talking backstage at Wednesday's Fiscal Summit held by the Pete Peterson Foundation, where they were both speaking. And apparently without their knowledge, a camera picked up some of the conversation.

"I'm glad we won this race in New York," Clinton can be seen saying in the video. "But I hope Democrats don't use it as an excuse to do nothing."

Ryan responded: "My guess is it's gonna sink into paralysis, is what's gonna happen. And you know the math. I mean, It's just -- we knew we were putting ourselves out there. But you gotta start this. You gotta get out there. You gotta get this thing moving."

Clinton told Ryan to call him if he ever wanted to talk about the issue, Ryan said he would, and the two parted.

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Medicare

Democrats: We'll Use NY-26 Medicare Formula Around The Country

Benjy Sarlin | May 25, 2011, 9:38AM

Kathy Hochul

National Democrats were united in their post-election message after their NY-26 win, issuing a flurry of statements claiming the race as a victory over Paul Ryan's Medicare plan.

Supporters chanted "Medicare" at Democrat Kathy Hocul's victory party, and she made it a centerpiece of her speech.

"We can ensure we do not decimate Medicare," Hochul said. "We will keep the promises made to our seniors who have spent their lives paying into Medicare, so they can count on health care when they need it most."

If Democrats have their way, there will be a lot more speeches along those lines come November 2012. The chairs of both legislative election committees made clear on Tuesday that they believe they have found a winning formula they intend to use elsewhere.

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NY-26

GOP MegaPAC: NY-26 Is A Wake Up Call For The Right

Benjy Sarlin | May 24, 2011, 10:58PM

NY-26 candidate Kathy Hochul (D)

Ditching the popular spin on the right that third party challenger Jack Davis cost Republicans the NY-26 race, conservative Super PAC American Crossroads warned its supporters on Tuesday that the election is a "wake-up" call for the right.

"Republican Jane Corwin gave it her all in a very tough special election today," spokesman Jonathan Collegio said in a statement. "The debate over whether Medicare mattered more than a third-party candidate who split the Republican vote is mostly a partisan Rorschach Test. What is clear is that this election is a wake-up call for anyone who thinks that 2012 will be just like 2010. It's going to be a tougher environment, Democrats will be more competitive, and we need to play at the top of our game to win big next year."

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NY-26

Democrat Kathy Hochul Wins Upset In NY-26, Medicare Vote Key To Victory

Benjy Sarlin | May 24, 2011, 10:14PM

Kathy Hochul

Republicans are going to have plenty of questions about their plan to turn Medicare into a voucher program tomorrow morning after Democrats romped to an improbable victory in a special election focused almost entirely on the issue.

Democrat Kathy Hochul lead 48-43 with over 83% of the votes counted and her victory looks to be a strong one -- the Associated Press called the race within an hour of the polls closing. Corwin underperformed in key GOP counties while Hochul's margins in Democratic areas were in line with the party's high water mark in the district from 2006, a wave year that swept the Republicans out of the majority in the House and Senate. The district is normally a safe seat for Republicans and few considered it vulnerable when Rep. Chris Lee (R-NY) resigned over topless photos he posted in a Craigslist personal.

Hochul's message focused relentlessly on the Paul Ryan budget, which she highlighted in ads, public statements, and debates at every opportunity. Her attacks on its cuts to Medicare benefits and its tax cuts for the wealthy proved impossible for Corwin to overcome, who tried her best to defend the GOP budget cuts before eventually giving in and falsely accusing Hochul of seeking similar cuts while muddying her own position on the plan.

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NY-26

What To Look For In The NY-26 Results

Benjy Sarlin | May 24, 2011, 8:33PM

Republican Jane Corwin and Democrat Kathy Hochul

TPM is going to be covering the NY-26 results live tonight, so for those planning on joining us for the main event, here are a few things to keep an eye on.

New York's 26th district leans Republican, but Democrats have run a few competitive races in recent years, which givies us a decent picture of what a winning margin might look like tonight on the county level. Ironically, their high water mark came in 2006 when their candidate was Jack Davis, a lifelong anti-trade Republican now running as a Tea Party independent in the special election and wreaking havoc on the race.

In 2006, Democrats pulled in 48% of the vote versus 52% for Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-NY). Key to Davis' surprise surge were majorities in Erie County, the most populous part of the district, and Niagara County, another major population center. Those two were enough to keep it close even as Davis lost every other county, including well-populated Monroe.

In Hochul's case, she'll need to be the clear winner in Erie, where she's county clerk, and Niagara to even have a shot. She will likely need to improve significantly on the Democrats 14-point loss in Monroe county from 2006 to make up most of the remaining ground. But Hochul is lucky enough to have Davis running again, so key to her success will be whether he can take a significant chunk of the vote in the various Republican strongholds.
A strong showing for Davis could give the Dems significantly more leeway -- if he runs up numbers of 15% or more, Hochul could put the race away with a weak plurality in the low to mid 40s. Corwin and her conservative supporters have spent a lot of time tearing Davis down this month, so there's a considerable amount of uncertainty as to just how much support he'll be able to turn out.

NY-26

Both Parties Gearing Up For Spin War After NY-26 Results

Benjy Sarlin | May 24, 2011, 5:05PM

NY-26 Congressional Candidates Jane Corwin (R) and Kathy Hochul (D).

Regardless of who wins tonight, both parties are already clearly telegraphing their post-election spin in the NY-26 election tonight.

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NY-26

Corwin Gets Pre-Emptive Legal Action In NY-26

Eric Kleefeld | May 24, 2011, 4:44PM

Jane Corwin

Jane Corwin, the Republican candidate in today's high-stakes NY-26 special election, has obtained a judge's order to bar the certification of the result and impound certain election materials when polls close this evening. Such an action is not far out of the ordinary in New York, but is an indicator that a close result is expected.

"Usually, any time they expect the race to be somewhat close, they usually do the impoundment order so the parties involves have an opportunity to see how those ballots get counted," state Elections Board spokesman Thomas Connolly told TPM.

Connolly, who made clear that he did not yet have the chance to fully read the order, said that these orders typically apply to absentee ballots and provisional ballots (the latter of which are called "affidavit ballots" in New York). Also in New York elections, absentee ballots are not counted on election night at all, but in the following days.

However, the great majority of votes are cast on optical-scan ballots, and the readings from those scan machines will likely continue. "At the end of the day, we'll still have the machine numbers," said Connolly.

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NY-26

Party VIPs Chris Christie and Bill Clinton Hit The Phones In NY-26

Benjy Sarlin | May 24, 2011, 2:46PM

NY-26 Congressional Candidates Jane Corwin (R) and Kathy Hochul (D).

Both parties are calling in the big guns to rally voters as residents in New York's 26th district line up to vote in today's special election.

On the Republican side, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, one of the most popular party members nationally, has a robo-call making the rounds backing Republican Jane Corwin.

"Now, I'm sure you've received many phone calls about this election already, nut please just give me a few seconds of your time as the election draws near," Christie says in the call, according to The Buffalo News. "I'm calling to ask you for your support for Jane Corwin for Congress as you go to the polls Tuesday, May 24th. I ran for governor of New Jersey because like you, I wanted to see REAL change. Jane Corwin is a fighter who knows how to get things done. We're in critical times for our country, and Washington needs stand-up leaders who will fight to control spending and change business as usual."

Rallying Democrats, former President and current New York State resident Bill Clinton has recorded a call as well. Clinton's script focuses tightly on the Medicare angle that Democrats have been pushing in the district, an approach they credit with their current lead in the polls.

"You can count on Kathy to say no to partisan politics that would end Medicare as we know it to pay for more tax cuts for multi-millionaires," he says. "That's just one reason I hope you'll join me in supporting Kathy Hochul for Congress in the Special Election tomorrow, May 24th."

Medicare

GOP Rep Attacks Democrats For Supporting Medicare Cuts She Just Voted For

Brian Beutler | May 24, 2011, 11:26AM

Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle (R-NY)

Right next door to NY-26, a GOP freshman is on the defensive over her vote for the House GOP budget and its plan to slash and privatize Medicare.

Rep. Ann Marie-Buerkle (NY-25) is sending flyers to her constituents arguing that phasing out traditional Medicare and replacing it with a program of subsidized private insurance is not privatization. "The plan before Congress will not privatize Medicare or turn it into a "voucher" system," she claims. And she takes a swipe at Democrats for voting for deep Medicare cuts as part of the health care reform law, even though she just voted to maintain those same cuts.

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NY-26

As Election Looms, Scott Walker's Prank Caller Strikes In NY-26

Evan McMorris-Santoro | May 23, 2011, 7:18PM

Ian Murphy (I)

Ian Murphy, the Buffalo, NY blogger who first made national headlines when he posed as conservative money man David Koch in a taped phone conversation with Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R), has struck again.

This time, the target was much closer to home: The special election being held in New York's 26th Congressional District, which has become a focal point for the national battle over the House Republican plan to phase out Medicare in favor of a voucher system.

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NY-26

Win Or Lose, NY-26 Is An Ominous Blow To GOP's Medicare Phaseout Plan

Benjy Sarlin | May 23, 2011, 12:35PM

NY-26 Congressional Candidates Jane Corwin (R) and Kathy Hochul (D).

Republican and conservative groups have poured in hundreds of thousands of dollars to save what should be a reliably GOP seat in New York's 26th district, fighting off a spirited Democratic challenger and a vote-splitting Tea Party independent. But whether Republican Jane Corwin ekes out a win on Tuesday or not, the election is already a tough blow to the party's flagging proposal to turn Medicare into a privatized voucher system.

In the first federal election since House Republicans introduced their ambitious budget that ends Medicare as we know it, Democrat Kathy Hochul sought from the start to turn the race into a one-issue referendum on House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan's Medicare proposal. While Corwin defended the party line at first, she's spent the final weeks fleeing the plan, first by falsely attributing its entitlement cuts to her opponent's platform and later by dumping her support for the Ryan plan entirely. Her actions leave little room for doubt that the GOP budget's is politically toxic in the area.

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NY-26

Dem Hochul Leads By Six Points In NY-26 Special Election

Jon Terbush | May 23, 2011, 9:22AM

NY-26 Congressional Candidates Jane Corwin (R) and Kathy Hochul (D).

One day ahead of a special congressional election to fill the seat vacated by Rep. Chris Lee (R) in a traditionally red district, a new PPP poll finds Democrat Kathy Hochul on top by six points.

Among likely voters, Hochul came in at 42%, followed by Republican Jane Corwin at 36%, and Tea Party candidate Jack Davis at 13%.

Democrats have sought to use the election as a referendum on the Republican plan to privatize Medicare, a plan that polls have shown is politically poisonous. Hochul has repeatedly slammed Corwin for saying she would support the Ryan plan, and Democratic group House Majority PAC ran ads also targeting Corwin's avowed backing of that plan.

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Kathy Hochul

Poll: Dem Hochul Leads GOPer Corwin In NY-26 Special Election

David Taintor | May 21, 2011, 2:31PM

NY-26 Congressional Candidates Jane Corwin (R) and Kathy Hochul (D).

With three days to go before voters head to the polls in the NY-26 special election to fill Republican Rep. Chris Lee's vacated seat, a new Siena College poll has Democrat Kathy Hochul leading Republican Jane Corwin by 4 points among likely voters.

Hochul leads with 42%, with Corwin trailing at 38% and tea party candidate Jack Davis with 9%, according to the poll.

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NY-26

Major Party Candidates Debate In NY-26 -- While Tea Partier Releases Most Depressing Ad Ever

Benjy Sarlin | May 19, 2011, 8:38AM

NY-26 Congressional Candidates Jane Corwin (R) and Kathy Hochul (D).

Republican Jane Corwin and Democrat Kathy Hochul met Wednesday night for their final debate before the May 24 vote to replace Republican Rep. Chris Lee in New York's 26th district. As it has for weeks, the conversation focused overwhelmingly on the budget passed by House Republicans that would, among other things, abolish Medicare.

Hochul has ran almost her entire campaign on defeating a Republican proposal to cut Medicare benefits and turn it into a voucher program while Corwin has dinged her for supporting higher taxes on the wealthy. The debate fell mostly into these predictable lines.

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NY-26

NRCC Dumps Cash Into NY-26 As Special Election Tilts Dem

Benjy Sarlin | May 17, 2011, 12:03PM

NY-26 Congressional Candidates Jane Corwin (R) and Kathy Hochul (D).

The GOP is dumping hundreds of thousands of dollars into the NY-26 election, hoping to stave off defeat in a right-leaning district that's become a testing ground for Democratic attacks on the Paul Ryan budget.

According to FEC filings, the National Republican Congressional Committee has spent nearly $425,000 on the race, targeting not only Democratic candidate Kathy Hochul but an independent Tea Party candidate Jack Davis. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has spent over $266,000 on the race so far.

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NY-26

Republican Accuses Democrat Of Pushing Medicare Cuts In NY-26

Benjy Sarlin | May 16, 2011, 2:26PM

NY-26 Congressional Candidates Jane Corwin (R) and Kathy Hochul (D).

Reeling from Democratic attacks on her support for Paul Ryan's Medicare plan in the NY-26 special election, Republican Jane Corwin has decided if you can't beat 'em join 'em. In an impressive act of political chutzpah, Corwin is now running ads accusing the Democrat in the race, Kathy Hochul, of trying to cut Medicare and Social Security benefits for seniors.

The ad, which attacks Hochul for backing "cuts to Social Security, cuts to Medicare, and higher taxes," is sourced to a passing statement from a debate last week in which Hochul said "everything should be on the table" in deficit talks, including unspecified entitlement cuts. But there's no question that defending Medicare from Republican cuts has easily been Hochul's top issue in the campaign, helping push her into a lead in the polls in the three-way contest. Corwin's retooled message, which makes no mention at all of the Republican plan or her own position on entitlements, appears to be a concession that attempts to sell the GOP's budget -- even in a right-leaning district -- have failed.

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NY-26

Dem Group To Advertise In NY-26 Special Election, Targeting Ryan Medicare Privatization

Eric Kleefeld | May 13, 2011, 6:18PM

NY-26 Congressional Candidates Jane Corwin (R) and Kathy Hochul (D).

The three-way special election for the House seat formerly held by Republican Rep. Chris Lee, who resigned in embarrassment after lewd photos of him became public, is now going to see an influx of advertising from an independently run Democratic group, House Majority PAC, which was set up to counter big-spending Republican-aligned groups such as American Crossroads.

National Journal reports:

The Democratic group will begin airing broadcast and cable television ads in the Western New York district attacking Republican Jane Corwin for her support of Rep. Paul Ryan's (R-Wis.) budget plan that would revamp Medicare.

The amount of the buy is not yet known, but it's the latest signal that Democrats see a definite chance for Kathy Hochul to capture the GOP-leaning seat in the May 24 special election between Hochul, Corwin and independent Jack Davis.

The election will be held on May 24.

NY-26

In NY-26, Candidates Debate Medicare, Deficit...And Lexuses

Benjy Sarlin | May 12, 2011, 12:00PM

NY-26 Congressional Candidates Jane Corwin (R) and Kathy Hochul (D).

Republican Jane Corwin and Democrat Kathy Hochul, who are running to replace resigned GOP Rep. Chris Lee in New York's 26th district, faced off in a debate Thursday morning, sparring over entitlements, spending, and at one point their husbands' cars.

Democrats have sought to turn the race into a referendum on the House GOP's proposal to privatize and cut Medicare and Hochul repeatedly brought up Corwin's support for the Republican budget.

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NY-26

Tea Party Candidate Jack Davis To GOP Tracker: 'You Want Punched Out?' [VIDEO]

Benjy Sarlin | May 12, 2011, 10:22AM

NY-26 Congressional Candidate Jack Davis (R)

Things took a turn for the ugly in the NY-26 election this week as the GOP released a video of Tea Party independent Jack Davis, who is competitive in the polls, appearing to threaten a Republican tracker while another man pushed him back.

"You want punched out? [sic]" Davis, 78, is heard saying on the 15 second clip after the cameraman asks him why he pulled out of Thursday's debate against Republican candidate Jane Corwin and Democrat Kathy Hochul.

After that, a man accompanying Davis appears to violently shove the cameraman, who continues asking Davis why he backed out of the debate.

Video below the jump:

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2011 Elections

Democrats Follow Karl Rove's Lead, Dump Cash Into NY-26

Evan McMorris-Santoro | May 10, 2011, 6:22PM

NY-26 candidate Kathy Hochul (D)

The three-way race to fill the vacant western New York seat vacated by Rep. Chris Lee (R) will get some more national attention in its closing weeks. On the day the Republican super PAC linked to Karl Rove announced it's going up with at least $350,000 worth of TV ads on behalf of GOP candidate Jane Corwin, national Democrats pledged to kick in their own hefty sum to bolster their candidate, Kathy Hochul.

A Democratic source confirmed to TPM that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) "is placing a $250,000 media buy in NY-26."

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NY-26

Big Money Group Linked To Karl Rove Dumps Cash On NY-26

Evan McMorris-Santoro | May 10, 2011, 1:40PM

NY-26 Republican candidate Jane Corwin and Republican strategist Karl Rove

American Crossroads -- the political money group backed by Karl Rove -- has chosen to get behind the Republican in the tightening three-way race to fill the New York Congressional seat vacated by the humiliated Rep. Chris Lee (R).

And in keeping with American Crossroads' m.o., the group is backing Republican nominee Jane Corwin in a big, big way. The group has purchased $350,000 in television ad time this week on Corwin's behalf in the western New York district. A second run has been reserved as well. The first seven-day round of ads, which will be released publicly on Tuesday night, will begin running Wednesday. Election day is May 24.

Crossroads says it hopes the blanket of spots will help set things right in the Republican district, which appears in danger of falling into Democratic hands thanks to perennial candidate (and former Democrat) Jack Davis, who is this time running on the Tea Party platform.

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NY-26

Boehner Fundraises In NY-26 As Dems Wage All-Out War On GOP Budget

Benjy Sarlin | May 10, 2011, 9:59AM

Kathy Hochul

The special election to replace the topless ex-Rep. Chris Lee (R-NY) is proving far more competitive than the district's Republican-leaning makeup would suggest, with Democrat Kathy Hochul leading Republican Jane Corwin and Tea Party candidate Jack Davis in the most recent poll.

Democrats are using the race as a testing ground for attacks on the GOP's budget, with Hochul positioning her campaign almost entirely as a referendum on Paul Ryan's plan to privatize and cut Medicare.

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NY-26

PPP Poll: Dem Leads For GOP-Held NY House Special Election

Eric Kleefeld | May 9, 2011, 3:11PM

NY-26 candidate Kathy Hochul (D)

A new poll from Public Policy Polling (D), commissioned by Daily Kos, finds that Democrats could potentially win the May 24 special election for NY-26, the House seat vacated by GOP Rep. Chris Lee. He resigned after sexually suggestive pictures and e-mails of his were made public. The reason the Dems could win: A split in the conservative vote between the official Republican nominee and a wealthy frequent candidate running on the "Tea Party" line.

The numbers: Democratic Erie County Clerk Kathy Hochul 35%, Republican state Rep. Jane Corwin 31%, Tea Party businessman Jack Davis 24%, and Green Party candidate Ian Murphy (the same person who conducted the infamous 20-minute prank call with Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, with Murphy posing as Republican financier David Koch) at 2%.

The TPM Poll Average gives Corwin 33.5%, Hochul 33%, Davis 23.5%, and Murphy 1.5%.

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