Joe DioGuardi

Paladino Lite: Meet The Other Tea Party-Backed Candidate In New York

Jillian Rayfield | October 6, 2010, 8:47AM

Fmr. Rep. Joe DioGuardi (R-NY)

Say what you want about New York Republican gubernatorial nominee Carl Paladino, but he sure does adhere masterfully to that old adage, "all publicity is good publicity."

The same cannot be said for Joe DioGuardi, the Republican running for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's seat, who has also enjoyed the support of the Tea Party movement, but has done so without nearly the same anger and (dare we say) charisma as Paladino.

Here's a look at that other New York Republican running for office this year...

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NY-SEN

Marist Poll: Gillibrand Leading By 12 Points In NY-SEN

Jillian Rayfield | September 28, 2010, 12:08PM

Joe Dioguardi (R) and Sen. Kristen Gillibrand (D-NY)

A new Marist poll of likely voters shows Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand leading Republican Joe DioGuardi 54%-42% in the New York senate race.

The previous Marist poll -- from all the way back in early May -- gave Gillibrand a 50%-30% lead.

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NY-SEN

Polls: Gillibrand The Stoppable?

Evan McMorris-Santoro | September 23, 2010, 11:41AM

Sen. Kristen Gillibrand (D-NY)

Two new public polls of the New York special election for Senate suggest that the unstoppable political force that is Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) may have finally hit a wall in Republican nominee Joe DioGuardi.

A third respected public poll shows that Gillibrand remains the T-1000 of New York politics. That's probably a huge relief for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who was banking on holding this seat, and was last seen calling Gillibrand the "hottest member" of the world's greatest deliberative body.

The numbers: A Quinnipiac poll from Sept. 20 showed Gillibrand ahead by just six, leading DioGuardi 48-42. That was quickly followed up by today's shocking SurveyUSA poll, which showed Gillibrand leading by just one. The last Quinnipiac poll of the race, from late August, showed Gillibrand up 43-28. This is the first SurveyUSA poll of the contest.

If these nail-biting numbers reflect the true state of the race to fill the seat vacated by Hillary Clinton at the beginning of last year, Democrats should start panicking. No one expects Gillibrand to lose and if she did it would be a seriously epic blow to both egos and the "Democrats have secured their Senate majority" narrative that followed the Delaware Republican primary for Senate you may have heard a little about.

Before Democrats could really get their freak-out on, however, Siena College swooped in to rescue Gillibrand -- for now anyway. The new poll from the college shows Gillibrand leading 57-31. The previous Siena poll, from mid-August, showed Gillibrand up 54-29.

There's just one problem.

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Joe DioGuardi

Rasmussen Poll: Gillibrand Leading By 10 Points In NY-SEN

Jillian Rayfield | September 21, 2010, 12:24PM

Joe Dioguardi (R) and Sen. Kristen Gillibrand (D-NY)

A new Rasmussen poll shows Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) leading her Republican opponent, Joe DioGuardi 49%-39%.

The poll, conducted September 16, shows that DioGuardi has started closing the gap since the last Rasmussen poll was taken on September 1, when he was trailing 51%-31%.

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Harry Reid

Reid At Fundraiser: Gillibrand Is 'Hottest Member' Of Senate

Eric Kleefeld | September 21, 2010, 11:45AM

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) strongly stated his support of Sen. Kristen Gillibrand (D-NY) at a fundraiser for Reid in New York last night -- referring to her as "the hottest member" of that august body.

As CNN reports, Gillibrand was present at the event, and is said to have blushed at the comment.

It should be noted that Gillibrand was in fact recently declared number three on The Hill's Top 50 Most Beautiful People list -- and neither of the top two are members of the Senate. So logically speaking, this would make her the hottest member of the Senate according to a major Washington publication.

Gillibrand spokesman Matt Cantor gave CNN a statement. "The Leader was saying nice things about the work Senator Gillibrand and Senator Reid have done together over the last year and half, and made a joke referencing to the Hill article from earlier this year," said Cantor. "Senator Gillibrand has the utmost respect for Senator Reid and looks forward to continue working together to repeal [Don't Ask Don't Tell], pass 9/11 health, and create good-paying jobs across the country."

2010 elections

Forget January: Several New Senators May Be Seated Shortly After November Election

Eric Kleefeld | September 14, 2010, 8:43AM

Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL)

This year's Senate elections are widely expected to produce substantial Republican gains in the Senate, producing a much less Democratic chamber come January. But in fact, some races present the possibility of the GOP making gains almost immediately, with the winners (of whatever party) sworn in soon after the election.

The reason is simple: These are special elections, with current incumbent members who were appointed to fill vacancies. (Only one sitting member in these seats, Dem Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, is seeking election -- the others are open seats). Just as the upset win of Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) in this past January's special election enabled the GOP to immediately improve from 40 seats to 41 -- and change the entire dynamic of the Senate -- any additional GOP members from a few key states could immediately strengthen the GOP for the lame duck session between the election and January.

Indeed, at least two candidates, Republican Mark Kirk of Illinois and Republican Christine O'Donnell of Delaware, have expressly campaigned on the prospect of taking office immediately. While it remains unclear just how much Democrats would be able to do in a lame-duck session that they couldn't do now -- after all, Republicans would be able to filibuster any major policy changes until January already, regardless of how many new Republican senators are seated right after the election -- it nevertheless has lingered as a political issue.

So let's take a look at these races.

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2010 elections

It Ain't Pretty: Senate Dems Struggle To Hold 59 Seats (CHARTS)

Christina Bellantoni | September 7, 2010, 12:35PM

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV)

Just how bad is it out there? Consider the TPM charts below showing the poll averages from each of the elections for Senate seats currently held by Democrats. Not a single Democrat in a contested race sits above 50 percent. Worse yet, many of them are outright losing to Republicans.

Election Day is still weeks off, and anything, and we mean anything, can happen to change these numbers on a dime. And it's important to remember that there are so many more factors to consider than just polls, which, as we've proven again and again, can be wrong. Many of these Democratic incumbents have mountains of cash in the bank and President Obama has continued to be a massive fundraising strength for Democratic senators despite his unpopularity nationally. Plus, some of these Dems are up against barely-ready-for-prime-time Republicans with extreme views, and those numbers seem like they could waver.

But if every TPM Poll Average culled from our PollTracker and seen below were to hold on through Nov. 2, Democrats would lose at least five seats, and possibly as many as eight.

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Charlie Rangel

Gillibrand And Cuomo Take Heat For Attending Rangel B-Day Party (VIDEOS)

Jillian Rayfield | August 13, 2010, 11:57AM

NY Atty. Gen. Andrew Cuomo (D) and NY Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D)

New York Democrats are done celebrating Charlie Rangel's 80th birthday party, but apparently the hangover is going to last a little bit longer...

In new web videos, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and Attorney General Andrew Cuomo are hit by their Republican opponents for their ties to the Harlem Congressman, who is under investigation for ethics violations.

[TPM SLIDESHOW: Not A Care In The World? Charlie Rangel's Birthday Celebration]

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Gail Goode

Gillibrand Finally Gets A Primary Challenger In New York Senate Race

Jillian Rayfield | July 15, 2010, 1:31PM

NY Senate candidate Gail Goode (D) and NY Senator Kirsten Gillibrand

For months, Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand has been knocking down potential primary challengers left and right before they even dare to get into the race for her New York Senate seat.

But now Gail Goode, a lawyer and deputy borough chief in New York City's Tort Unit, is officially in the race, and wants to know: "Who is the real Kirsten Gillibrand and what does she really believe?"

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NY-SEN

GOP Political Strategist To Run Against Schumer

Eric Kleefeld | April 27, 2010, 10:32AM

Political strategist Jay Townsend (R)

The Republicans finally have a candidate to run against Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY).

Jay Townsend, a GOP political strategist, is scheduled to announce this Saturday that he will run against Schumer.

Interestingly, Townsend sells a DVD seminar entitled "So You Want To Run For Public Office?" The first DVD, "Things You Must Know and Do Before You Run," sells for $99. Let's see how well this political campaign teacher does in the actual practice. He has his work cut out for him, though -- the TPM Poll Average currently gives Schumer an approval rating of 54.3%-37.3%.

Late Update: This post originally identified Townsend as a Fox News commentator. A Fox News representative tells us that Townsend is not in fact a Fox News commentator, nor he is employed by the network.

NY-SEN

NY-SEN Candidate Holds Fund-Raiser With Paul Ryan

Rachel Slajda | April 21, 2010, 10:56AM

NY-SEN candidate David Malpass, Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI)

David Malpass, one of three Republicans running for Senate from New York, held a fund-raiser yesterday morning with GOP budget guru Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI).

The "intimate" fund-raiser, held in the office of financier Steven Klinsky in midtown New York, attracted about two dozen people, said a spokeswoman for Malpass. The spokeswoman, Jessica Proud, couldn't say how much they raised, but an invitation published by the Times Union says the minimum donation was $1,500. The max was $4,800.

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NY-SEN

NY-SEN: Republican And Former Bear Stearns Exec Enters The Ring

Rachel Slajda | April 14, 2010, 6:29PM

NY-SEN Candidate David Malpass

As the names of those not running against Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) continue to pile up, one Republican and former Bear Stearns executive announced today that he will enter the race.

David Malpass was the chief economist at Bear Stearns from 2001 until its collapse 2008. He also served during the Reagan and George H.W. Bush administrations, in the Treasury and State departments and also as a congressional staffer.

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NY-SEN

Pataki Won't Run For Senate, Will Run HCR Repeal Group Instead

Rachel Slajda | April 14, 2010, 10:23AM

Former NY Gov. George Pataki (R)

Former New York Gov. George Pataki (R) says he won't challenge Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) for her Senate seat this fall.

It's yet another potential challenger who has decided not to run against Gillibrand, despite her unimpressive poll numbers. Polls showed her losing to several potential Republican candidates, including Pataki.

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NY-SEN

She Is Kirsten, Hear Her Roar: Gillibrand The Unstoppable

Evan McMorris-Santoro | March 26, 2010, 1:10PM

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)

Who is the most powerful woman in American politics? Is it Nancy Pelosi, who just pushed landmark health care reform through a reticent Congress? Is it Michelle Obama, whose stratospheric approval ratings make her the envy of everyone in the political universe?

No, it's neither. The most powerful woman of all, or so it seems, is the junior senator from New York, Kirsten Gillibrand (D). Think about it: Who else could be associated with David Paterson and not be politically radioactive? Who else could scare off challenger after challenger from both sides without spending a dime?

Meet Kirsten Gillibrand, who apparently can't be stopped by man nor woman nor even Rudy Giuliani.

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NY-SEN

Betsy McCaughey: 'I Am Definitely Not A Candidate' Against Kirsten Gillibrand

Eric Kleefeld | March 19, 2010, 2:35PM

Betsy McCaughey, Former Lt. Gov. (R-NY)

Could Betsy McCaughey, the former New York lieutenant governor and arch-enemy of liberal health care reformers, be a potential candidate for governor or Senate?

The New York Daily News reports that a reader received polling phone call that tested various candidates in the races against Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, as well as for the open gubernatorial race. Among the names was McCaughey, who served one term as a Republican lieutenant governor in 1990s, then switched to the Democrats after she was dropped from the GOP ticket for the 1998 election. (She failed to win the Dem nomination for governor, and then won 1.65% of the vote as the nominee of the Liberal Party.)

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NY-SEN

Senor Appears At NY Fundraiser With Cantor, Fueling Speculation Of Senate Run

Rachel Slajda | March 15, 2010, 10:01AM

Dan Senor, former chief spokesperson for the Coalition Provisional Authority

House Minority Whip Eric Cantor was scheduled to be a special guest at a Manhattan fundraiser last night which was also attended by potential Senate candidate Dan Senor.

Senor, who was an advocate of the U.S. occupation of Iraq and is said to be considering a challenge to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), was on the host committee of a fundraiser for Randy Altschuler. (That means he contributed or raised $5,000 to the campaign.) Altschuler is one of several Republicans running for the House seat held by Rep. Tim Bishop (D-NY).

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NY-SEN

Poll: Gillibrand Posts Solid Numbers In New York, Paterson Sinking

Eric Kleefeld | February 22, 2010, 10:37AM

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and Gov. David Paterson (D-NY)

A new Siena poll of New York has some good news for Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, and some bad news for the man who appointed her to the Senate, Gov. David Paterson.

Gillibrand, who has had to build up name recognition in a large state where she was unknown a year ago, has a 34% favorable rating and 28% unfavorable. One possible sign of trouble is that only 30% say they would vote to re-elect her, with 40% preferring someone else. However, this can be partly explained by her very low numbers among Republicans, who are solidly against her by a margin of 55%-23%. The 30% undecided figure is also still very high, and the cross-tabs show higher undecided numbers among such heavily Democratic groups such as African-Americans (38%) and Latinos (41%).

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NY-SEN

Conservatives Hope Larry Kudlow Will Take On Schumer In NY

Evan McMorris-Santoro | February 4, 2010, 5:19PM

Larry Kudlow

If you listen carefully, you can hear it: the a low rumble of excitement at Republican gatherings and executive suites across New York. A growing number of conservatives say that Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) is vulnerable this year, and they know the man that can beat him -- CNBC host and supply-side economics uebermensch Larry Kudlow.

Kudlow has expressed some interest in mounting a bid. One of the men who's urging him to run, self-proclaimed "Wall St. guy" and Kudlow friend John Lakian, told me today that Kudlow is at "the 70 or 80 or 90% tipping point" toward throwing his hat in the ring. According to Lakian, one of the men behind the Draft Kudlow movement on Facebook and the web, the time is right for a man with Kudlow's extensive Wall St. connections to make a run for office.

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Kirsten Gillibrand

Gillbrand: If Harold Ford Were At The State Of The Union, He Would Sit On The Republican Side

Eric Kleefeld | January 27, 2010, 6:14PM

A post by Twitter by Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY).

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), who is facing a challenge in the Democratic primary by former Rep. Harold Ford (D-TN), is already using tonight's State of the Union address to take a shot at her rival.

Gillibrand posted this on Twitter: "Looking forward to the #SOTU tonight. If HF were here, he would probably be sitting on the Republican side."

The really funny part about all of this is that when Gillibrand was appointed to the Senate a year ago, the conventional wisdom was that she would face a Democratic primary challenge on the grounds that she allegedly wasn't progressive enough. But since then, one potential liberal challenger after another has bowed out of the race, thanks in part to pressure from the White House and the Democratic establishment. And her new challenger, Ford, is a former chairman of the Democratic Leadership Council, who talked up his pro-life, pro-gun and anti-gay marriage credentials when he ran for Senate in Tennessee back in 2006.

Harold Ford

Poll: Harold Ford Gets 10 Percent, Running As Indy In NY-SEN

Eric Kleefeld | January 20, 2010, 6:29PM

Former Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D)

A new Rasmussen poll of New York looks at how former Rep. Harold Ford (D-TN) might do if he ran against appointed Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in the general election, as an independent, rather than challenging her in the Dem primary. The answer is that he wouldn't get very far -- but Gillibrand wouldn't walk away with the contest itself, with a potential split in the Democratic vote.

The numbers: Gillibrand 39%, an unnamed generic Republican candidate 34%, and Ford 10%. It doesn't appear that Rasmussen polled a two-way general election between Gillibrand and Ford, or Gillibrand against a generic Republican. Rasmussen had to use a generic Republican precisely because there is no GOP candidate right now, and the party's recruiting efforts have kept coming up short. (We'll see whether the Republican victory in Massachusetts gets anybody interested in this race.)

From the pollster's analysis: "Unlike in many other states, the national health care plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats is less of a factor in Republicans' favor in New York. Forty-eight percent (48%) of Empire State voters favor the plan, while 49% oppose it. Those numbers include 26% who Strongly Favor it and 38% who Strongly Oppose, again a narrower gap than is found in most states and nationally."

Kirsten Gillibrand

Poll: Gillibrand Starts Potential Primary Way Ahead Of Ford

Eric Kleefeld | January 20, 2010, 2:36PM

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and former Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D)

A new Rasmussen poll of the New York Democratic primary gives appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand a big lead against her apparent likely challenger, former Tennessee Rep. Harold Ford.

The numbers: Gillibrand 48%, Ford 23%.

Nevertheless, the pollster's analysis points that out that the electorate's opinion is not fixed. Gillibrand has a 59% favorable rating, with 27% unfavorable, but with only 8% very favorable and 13% very unfavorable. Ford's numbers show even less of a solid opinion than there is for Gillibrand, with only 36% favorable and 30% unfavorable, including 11% very favorable and 9% very unfavorable.

NY-SEN

Poll: Gillibrand Beats Ford, But Ford's Got A Chance To Catch Her

Evan McMorris-Santoro | January 15, 2010, 11:53AM

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and former Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D)

A new Marist poll on the New York Senate race has good news for both Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and the man actively considering challenging her for the Democratic nomination this year, former Tennessee Rep. Harold Ford, Jr.

Among Democratic voters surveyed, Gillibrand leads Ford in a hypothetical matchup 43-24. It's a sizable lead for the less-than-popular Gillibrand, who Marist found has just a 31% approval rating among Democrats in New York. A full third of surveyed Democrats are undecided in the race, however, leaving Ford a lot of room to move up should he decide to run for the nomination.

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Harold Ford

Harold Ford: 'I Am A New Yorker. I Am A New Yorker. I Am..." (VIDEO)

Eric Kleefeld | January 11, 2010, 6:32PM

Former Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D)

Appearing on Hardball tonight, former Rep. Harold Ford (D-TN) made a clear declaration for Chris Matthews, as Ford gears up to challenge appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in the New York Democratic primary.

Ford, who lost a Senate campaign in his native Tennessee in 2006, said that he lives in New York, he and his wife plan to start a family there, and he's paid taxes there. "And once you pay taxes there, you feel like a New Yorker," Ford quipped.

Matthews asked Ford to declare that he is a New Yorker. Ford replied: "I am a New Yorker. I am a New Yorker. I am a New Yorker. I am a New Yorker." It was certainly entertaining -- and if this New York thing doesn't work out, he'll have no chance of ever running for office in Tennessee again.

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Peter King

Peter King Not Running For Senate...Again

Eric Kleefeld | January 11, 2010, 3:53PM

Rep. Peter King (R-NY)

Rep. Peter King (R-NY), who had been courted by Republicans to run for the Senate against appointed Democratic incumbent Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, has announced that he will not run.

King had previously announced in August 2009 that he wouldn't run, but a week ago he left the door open again to a possible run. However, King has now withdrawn his name from consideration again, citing the importance of his work on the House Homeland Security Committee.

In his statement, King said: "While the political situation has changed dramatically in the Republicans' favor since September and I believe that Sen. Gillibrand can and will be defeated in 2010, I will not be a candidate for the Senate." While King might say Gillibrand will be defeated, his own withdrawal has the GOP running out of big names for this race, especially since Rudy Giuliani has also decided not to run.

Harold Ford

Harold Ford Now Supports Gay Marriage

Eric Kleefeld | January 11, 2010, 3:07PM

Former Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D)

Former Rep. Harold Ford (D-TN), who is gearing up to challenge appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in the New York Democratic primary, has announced that he now supports gay marriage.

Appearing on the Today show, Ford pointed out that he'd previously supported civil unions. "My support for fairness and equality existed long before I moved to New York," Ford said. This is certainly a change for Ford. Back when he was in Congress, he voted in favor of amending the U.S. Constitution to ban gay marriage nationwide.

Matt Lauer asked Ford if this was a major change for him. "Maybe in the language," said Ford. "But I'm a believer that benefits should flow to same sex partners and if indeed the fiction of the language, the title, should be changed, much like Chuck Schumer who changed his mind on it and Bill Clinton's evolved, I'm of the opinion now that nothing is wrong with that."

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Harold Ford

Ford And Gillibrand Jousting Begins

Eric Kleefeld | January 8, 2010, 6:35PM

Former Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D)

So what exactly is going on with former Rep. Harold Ford (D-TN)? Ford ran unsuccessfully for Senator from Tennessee in 2006, and is now getting ready to challenge appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, in the Democratic primary in Ford's new home state of New York. The attacks between the two camps have already begun.

As Ben Smith reports, Ford has started staffing up for a run, signing up campaign aides that worked for New York's Republican-turned-independent Mayor Mike Bloomberg. "Harold is not going to be bullied or intimidated. It's good for New York to have a dialogue. It's good to have credible candidates exploring this race. So what are they so afraid of?" said a statement from Ford spokesman Davidson Goldin. "Let's be clear: New York needs a senator who will fight for jobs fight to improve our economy, fight for small business and have the independence to stand up and do what's right for our state, regardless of what the party bosses in Albany or Washington want."

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Rudy Giuliani

Report: Rudy Giuliani Not Running For Senate Against Gillibrand

Eric Kleefeld | December 22, 2009, 9:16AM

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani

Rudy Giuliani is expected to announce today that he will not run for Senate in 2010 against appointed Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, a blow for Republican recruitment efforts after Giuliani had consistently led Gillibrand in the polls.

Giuliani will also endorse former Rep. Rick Lazio for governor, after having contemplated that race earlier this year -- an interesting turn of events, considering how Lazio became the 2000 nominee for Senate against Hillary Clinton after Giuliani had dropped out of that race, too.

The polls have shown that Gillibrand remains a largely unknown quantity with the voters, and faces a potential primary challenge from outgoing New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson, who came closer to victory than anybody had expected in his 2009 race for mayor. But without Rudy Giuliani, the Republicans have lost their biggest name in a state where they don't have much of a bench to speak of anymore.

Kirsten Gillibrand

Poll: Gillibrand Trailing Bill Thompson In Dem Primary -- Or Is She?

Eric Kleefeld | December 15, 2009, 12:41PM

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)

A new Quinnipiac poll says that appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) is vulnerable to a primary challenge from outgoing New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson, who just came surprisingly close in his unsuccessful campaign for Mayor of New York City.

The numbers for the Democratic primary: Thompson 41%, Gillibrand 28%, with a ±3.7% margin of error. On the other hand, a Siena poll that was also released today shows Gillibrand ahead of Thompson by 32%-23%.

Thompson has likely benefitted from recent publicity from his mayoral campaign, in which he was frequently on New York TV (though not as much as Mike Bloomberg, obviously). By contrast, Gillibrand hasn't been on paid TV at all -- not one ad.

One thing the two polls both agree on, though, is that each Democrat currently trails Rudy Giuliani in a general election match-up. Quinnipiac has Rudy ahead of Gillibrand by 50%-40% and ahead of Thompson by 52%-36%. Siena had Rudy leading Gillibrand by 49%-42%, and leading Thompson by 56%-34%.

Kirsten Gillibrand

Poll: Gillibrand Trails Giuliani, Narrowly Leads Pataki

Eric Kleefeld | December 15, 2009, 9:34AM

Sen. Kristen Gillibrand (D-NY)

A new Siena poll shows that appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) continues to be in a marginal position going into her 2010 special election, though she remains the strongest potential Democratic nominee.

In general election match-ups, Gillibrand trails Rudy Giuliani by 49%-42%, and leads George Pataki by 43%. Against lesser-known Republican Bruce Blakeman, a possible candidate who is currently a commissioner for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, Gillibrand leads by 52%-22%. The margin of error is ±3.8%.

Another Democrat was tested, outgoing New York City Comptroller and recent unsuccessful mayoral nominee Bill Thompson, who trails Giuliani by 56%-34% and Pataki by 49%-36%, and led Blakeman by 40%-23%.

In a potential Democratic primary, Gillibrand has 32%; Thompson has 23%; former Rep. Harold Ford (D-TN), who ran unsuccessfully for Senate from his original home state in 2006, has seven percent; and labor union organizer Jonathan Tasini, who is actually an active candidate, has only three points.

NY-SEN

Poll: Giuliani Ahead Of Gillibrand By Double Digits

Eric Kleefeld | November 25, 2009, 10:15AM

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani

Another poll suggests that Rudy Giuliani could potentially beat appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), if he enters the 2010 Senate race as he's reportedly been considering.

The new numbers from Rasmussen: Giuliani 53%, Gillibrand 40%, with a ±4.5% margin of error. A Zogby poll yesterday gave Rudy a narrower lead of 45%-43%, within that poll's ±3.2% margin of error.

The pollster's analysis speculates that Giuliani could be getting a short-term boost in this Democratic state, due to the Obama administration's decision on terrorism trials: "Fifty-five percent (55%) of New York State voters oppose U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder's decision to try the confessed mastermind of the 9/11 attacks and five other suspected terrorists in a civilian court in New York City rather than before a military tribunal."

NY-SEN

Gillibrand Faces Trouble From Giuliani In New Poll

Evan McMorris-Santoro | November 24, 2009, 4:33PM

Sen. Kristen Gillibrand (D-NY)

Rudy Giuliani hasn't made up his mind about running for Senate for a second time, but a new poll out today from Zogby suggests he's in a good position to take a shot at winning the seat he ran for in 2000.

The poll shows Giuliani in a statistical dead heat with incumbent Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), who took over the seat earlier this year after Hillary Clinton left it to become Secretary of State. Giuliani leads a hypothetical matchup with Gillibrand 45-43, which is within the 3.2% margin of error. Former Gov. George Pataki (R), another potential candidate for the seat, trails Gillibrand 43-38.

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Rudy Giuliani

Report: Rudy Will Run For Senate Against Gillibrand -- And Then For President Again

Eric Kleefeld | November 19, 2009, 2:50PM

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R)

On the heels of a New York Times report that Rudy Giuliani won't be running for Governor of New York, the New York Daily News now reports that Rudy will instead run for Senate against appointed Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- and that if elected, he'll use it as a stepping stone to make another run for President!

The Daily News cites a source close to Rudy:

If elected, the source said, he would use that as a stepping stone to run for President in 2012 - and would not run for re-election to the Senate. A Giuliani spokeswoman downplayed the reports.

The New York Senate seat is up for a special election in 2010, due to the appointments of Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State and Kirsten Gillibrand as Senator, but would then be up again for its regularly-scheduled election in 2012. Recent polls have actually given Rudy a lead over the lesser-known Gillibrand, though this would quickly be put to test in an actual campaign in a heavily Democratic state. For one thing, Rudy would face a lot of questioning about whether he's just using the Senate seat as a temporary stepping stone to the presidency.

Rudy's spokesperson downplayed the report: "When Mayor Giuliani makes a decision about serving in public office, he will inform New Yorkers on his own."

Late Update: Giuliani's spokeswoman is denying the story.

Rudy Giuliani

Report: Rudy Won't Run For Governor Of New York

Eric Kleefeld | November 19, 2009, 1:38PM

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R)

The New York Times reports that Rudy Giuliani will not run for Governor of New York, a serious blow to Republican hopes of winning this big governorship in 2010:

It was not clear what prompted the decision, but the prospect of potentially facing Attorney General Andrew M. Cuomo, who is quietly planning his own run for governor, may not have appealed to Mr. Giuliani, who suffered a bruising defeat in the 2008 Republican presidential primary. While many political analysts believe Mr. Giuliani would have comfortably beaten Gov. David A. Paterson, he would likely have faced an uphill battle against Mr. Cuomo, one of the most popular politicians in the state.

It remains unclear if the former mayor is considering any other political race in 2010. Some have urged him to take on the newly-installed Senator Kirsten E. Gillibrand, who has never run statewide and is still introducing herself to voters in parts of the state.

NY-GOV

Giuliani Has His Pick Of Incumbents, NY Voters Say

Evan McMorris-Santoro | October 20, 2009, 10:43AM

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R)

New Yorkers are ready to let Rudy Giuliani throw the bums out, according to a new poll from Siena University. The former New York City mayor leads the current Democratic incumbents in a potential governors race or U.S. Senate bid according to the survey of 624 registered voters, which was Oct. 14-18. Giuliani has not declared his intentions to run for either race, but observers expect him to mount a gubernatorial bid.

Giuliani beats Gov. David Paterson 56-33 in potential 2010 matchup. Paterson has been suffering under very low approval ratings for months and national Democrats have made it clear they hope he won't run. The new poll again justifies their pressure on Paterson, as Democrats beat Giuliani with popular state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo as their nominee. Like Giuliani, Cuomo has not declared his intentions in the race.

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Kirsten Gillibrand

Polls: Gillibrand In Close Race For 2010

Eric Kleefeld | September 24, 2009, 2:22PM

Sen. Kristen Gillibrand (D-NY)

Two new polls find that appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) could be in for a real fight in her 2010 campaign.

The new Rasmussen poll has Gillibrand just barely leading Republican former Gov. George Pataki, who has not gotten into the race as of yet: Gillibrand 44%, Pataki 41%, within the ±4.5% margin of error.

The Marist poll has Pataki ahead: Pataki 45%, Gillibrand 41%, with a ±4% margin of error. Rudy Giuliani, who is widely expected to run for governor, also leads Gillibrand in a trial match-up: Giuliani 51%, Gillibrand 40%.

David Paterson

Paterson: Let's Focus On Huge Budget Deficit, Not 'Political Shenangians'

Rachel Slajda | September 24, 2009, 12:20PM

Gov. David Paterson (D-NY)

In an interview with WNED today, New York Gov. David Paterson said focusing on "political shenanigans" is taking away from the efforts to close a more than $3 billion deficit.

Those "shenanigans" refer to reports that President Obama is nudging Paterson to drop out of next year's race for governor.

In bringing focus to Albany's budget problems, Paterson said he wants to "show the voters" that despite that gaping deficit, New York isn't in as bad shape as California, Michigan, Massachusetts or other states -- thanks to him.

"New York, which was hit hardest by the budget deficit because 20 percent of our taxes come from Wall Street, has actually weathered the storm the best of all the states. But the decisions I've had to make are tough decisions. They've dismayed people," he said, speaking about drastic cuts to social services such as Medicaid.

"You're not gonna be very popular when you do this, but anyone who's running against you has to say how they'd do it differently," he said.

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