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NY-SEN

NY-SEN

Gillibrand Faces Trouble From Giuliani In New Poll


Sen. Kristen Gillibrand (D-NY)

Rudy Giuliani hasn't made up his mind about running for Senate for a second time, but a new poll out today from Zogby suggests he's in a good position to take a shot at winning the seat he ran for in 2000.

The poll shows Giuliani in a statistical dead heat with incumbent Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), who took over the seat earlier this year after Hillary Clinton left it to become Secretary of State. Giuliani leads a hypothetical matchup with Gillibrand 45-43, which is within the 3.2% margin of error. Former Gov. George Pataki (R), another potential candidate for the seat, trails Gillibrand 43-38.

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Topics: George Pataki, Kirsten Gillibrand, NY-SEN, Rudy Giuliani

Rudy Giuliani

Report: Rudy Will Run For Senate Against Gillibrand -- And Then For President Again


Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R)

On the heels of a New York Times report that Rudy Giuliani won't be running for Governor of New York, the New York Daily News now reports that Rudy will instead run for Senate against appointed Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- and that if elected, he'll use it as a stepping stone to make another run for President!

The Daily News cites a source close to Rudy:

If elected, the source said, he would use that as a stepping stone to run for President in 2012 - and would not run for re-election to the Senate. A Giuliani spokeswoman downplayed the reports.

The New York Senate seat is up for a special election in 2010, due to the appointments of Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State and Kirsten Gillibrand as Senator, but would then be up again for its regularly-scheduled election in 2012. Recent polls have actually given Rudy a lead over the lesser-known Gillibrand, though this would quickly be put to test in an actual campaign in a heavily Democratic state. For one thing, Rudy would face a lot of questioning about whether he's just using the Senate seat as a temporary stepping stone to the presidency.

Rudy's spokesperson downplayed the report: "When Mayor Giuliani makes a decision about serving in public office, he will inform New Yorkers on his own."

Late Update: Giuliani's spokeswoman is denying the story.

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Topics: Kirsten Gillibrand, NY-GOV, NY-SEN, Rudy Giuliani

Rudy Giuliani

Report: Rudy Won't Run For Governor Of New York


Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R)

The New York Times reports that Rudy Giuliani will not run for Governor of New York, a serious blow to Republican hopes of winning this big governorship in 2010:

It was not clear what prompted the decision, but the prospect of potentially facing Attorney General Andrew M. Cuomo, who is quietly planning his own run for governor, may not have appealed to Mr. Giuliani, who suffered a bruising defeat in the 2008 Republican presidential primary. While many political analysts believe Mr. Giuliani would have comfortably beaten Gov. David A. Paterson, he would likely have faced an uphill battle against Mr. Cuomo, one of the most popular politicians in the state.

It remains unclear if the former mayor is considering any other political race in 2010. Some have urged him to take on the newly-installed Senator Kirsten E. Gillibrand, who has never run statewide and is still introducing herself to voters in parts of the state.

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Topics: Andrew Cuomo, David Paterson, Kirsten Gillibrand, NY-GOV, NY-SEN, Rudy Giuliani

NY-GOV

Giuliani Has His Pick Of Incumbents, NY Voters Say


Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R)

New Yorkers are ready to let Rudy Giuliani throw the bums out, according to a new poll from Siena University. The former New York City mayor leads the current Democratic incumbents in a potential governors race or U.S. Senate bid according to the survey of 624 registered voters, which was Oct. 14-18. Giuliani has not declared his intentions to run for either race, but observers expect him to mount a gubernatorial bid.

Giuliani beats Gov. David Paterson 56-33 in potential 2010 matchup. Paterson has been suffering under very low approval ratings for months and national Democrats have made it clear they hope he won't run. The new poll again justifies their pressure on Paterson, as Democrats beat Giuliani with popular state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo as their nominee. Like Giuliani, Cuomo has not declared his intentions in the race.

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Topics: Andrew Cuomo, David Paterson, George Pataki, Kirsten Gillibrand, NY-GOV, NY-SEN, Rudy Giuliani

Kirsten Gillibrand

Polls: Gillibrand In Close Race For 2010


Sen. Kristen Gillibrand (D-NY)

Two new polls find that appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) could be in for a real fight in her 2010 campaign.

The new Rasmussen poll has Gillibrand just barely leading Republican former Gov. George Pataki, who has not gotten into the race as of yet: Gillibrand 44%, Pataki 41%, within the ±4.5% margin of error.

The Marist poll has Pataki ahead: Pataki 45%, Gillibrand 41%, with a ±4% margin of error. Rudy Giuliani, who is widely expected to run for governor, also leads Gillibrand in a trial match-up: Giuliani 51%, Gillibrand 40%.

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Topics: George Pataki, Kirsten Gillibrand, NY-SEN, Rudy Giuliani, Senate '10

David Paterson

Paterson: Let's Focus On Huge Budget Deficit, Not 'Political Shenangians'


Gov. David Paterson (D-NY)

In an interview with WNED today, New York Gov. David Paterson said focusing on "political shenanigans" is taking away from the efforts to close a more than $3 billion deficit.

Those "shenanigans" refer to reports that President Obama is nudging Paterson to drop out of next year's race for governor.

In bringing focus to Albany's budget problems, Paterson said he wants to "show the voters" that despite that gaping deficit, New York isn't in as bad shape as California, Michigan, Massachusetts or other states -- thanks to him.

"New York, which was hit hardest by the budget deficit because 20 percent of our taxes come from Wall Street, has actually weathered the storm the best of all the states. But the decisions I've had to make are tough decisions. They've dismayed people," he said, speaking about drastic cuts to social services such as Medicaid.

"You're not gonna be very popular when you do this, but anyone who's running against you has to say how they'd do it differently," he said.

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Topics: Barack Obama, David Paterson, NY-SEN

NY-SEN

Peter King Not Running For Senate, Further Boosting Gillibrand's Prospects For 2010


Rep. Peter King (R-NY)

Rep. Peter King (R-NY) has announced that he will not run for Senate in 2010 against appointed incumbent Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand, after having publicly eyed the race for months.

Polls had previously shown King running competitively against Gillibrand, with high undecided numbers due to a lack of overall brand recognition for the incumbent. But King admitted in his official statement that he would face tough obstacles: "The reality is that a statewide Democratic candidate starts the race with a voter registration edge of almost 3 million. To overcome such a large margin, there would have to be intensive media coverage of the race and I would need to raise at least $30 million."

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Topics: Kirsten Gillibrand, NY-SEN, Peter King, Senate '10

NY-SEN

Report: Maloney Will Not Primary Gillibrand

The New York Times reports that Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY), who had been on the verge of challenging appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in the 2010 Democratic primary, will not be running after all -- meaning that Gillibrand will probably not face any sort of significant primary:

A person close to Mrs. Maloney, a Democrat from Manhattan, said she made her decision not to run after days of agonizing over the fact that running meant she would have to leave her current job at a point when she had significant seniority in Congress.

"It's been a tough decision for her," said the Maloney associate who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the matter.

Polls had generally given Maloney a slight edge, with high undecided numbers and low name recognition for both candidates.

The White House went to great steps to urge Maloney and other prospective candidates out of the race. Whatever Maloney's motives for not running might be, the Obama administration and the overall Democratic establishment certainly have succeeded in clearing the field for Gillibrand.

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Topics: NY-SEN, Senate '10

Don't Ask, Don't Tell

Gillibrand Takes Lead In Senate On Repealing "Don't Ask, Don't Tell"

Senate Democrats are perhaps set to start the ball rolling on repealing the ban on gays in the military, with Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) announcing that hearings have been scheduled for the Armed Services Committee to examine the impact of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell."

"This policy is wrong for our national security and wrong for the moral foundation upon which our country was founded,'" Gillibrand said in a press release. "I thank Chairman Levin for agreeing to hold this important hearing. Numerous military leaders are telling us that the times have changed. 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell' is an unfair, outdated measure that violates the civil rights of some of our bravest, most heroic men and women. By repealing this policy, we will increase America's strength - both militarily and morally."

Some people might suspect that Gillibrand could have a political motivation. She is an appointed Senator facing a 2010 primary challenge in a liberal state -- with the polls putting her challenger, Rep. Carolyn Maloney, narrowly ahead -- and would have something to gain from taking the point position on this. A spokesman said this is not politically motivated, drawing attention to the fact that Gillibrand had already been on the record for repealing DADT when she was still in the House.

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Topics: Don't Ask, Don't Tell, NY-SEN, Senate '10

NY-SEN

Rep. Pete King (R-NY): "Let's Knock Out The Psychobabble," Michael Jackson Was A Pedophile

Rep. Pete King (R-NY), a potential Senate candidate in 2010 against either incumbent Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand or Rep. Carolyn Maloney -- it depends on who wins that primary -- has taken to YouTube to send a strong message about media coverage of Michael Jackson, as opposed to coverage of real heroes like our servicemen and women, teachers in rough neighborhoods, policemen, firefighters, doctors and nurses, etc.:

"Let's knock out the psychobabble, this guy was a pervert, he was a child molester, he was a pedophile, and to be giving this much coverage to him day in and day out, what does it say about us and our country?" said King. "I just think it's too - we're too politically correct. No one wants to stand up and say, 'We don't need Michael Jackson.' You know, he died, he had some talent. Fine. But people are dying everyday. There's men and women are dying in Afghanistan. Let's give them the credit they deserve."

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Topics: NY-SEN, Senate '10

Bill Clinton

Bill Clinton To Do Fundraiser For Carolyn Maloney

In an interesting development in the 2010 New York special Senate race, where appointed Democratic Sen. Kristen Gillibrand is facing a primary challenge from Rep. Carolyn Maloney, Bill Clinton will now headline a fundraiser for Maloney, despite the extensive efforts by the Obama White House to clear the field for Gillibrand.

Interestingly, Bill previously did a fundraiser for Gillibrand herself, as he has done for many politicians who supported Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign. Both Gillibrand and Maloney supported Hillary during the 2008 primaries.

When asked for comment, Gillibrand spokesman Matt Canter instead pointed us over to a statement by an unnamed aide to Bill, who told PolitickerNY that this was not a shot against the incumbent: "The former president believes that Senator Gillibrand is doing a good job as senator and this type of thank-you event, and any other he may do, should not be read as an endorsement or un-endorsement."

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Topics: Bill Clinton, NY-SEN, Senate '10

Barack Obama

TPMDC Morning Roundup

Poll: Obama's Disapproval Numbers Rising, But Approval Still Strong
A new Quinnipiac poll finds that President Obama's approval rating remains stable at 57%, but his disapproval rating has shot up from 30% a month ago to 37% now, as more undecided voters shift into the disapproval category. From the pollster's analysis: "He still has a ways to go before his coalition becomes politically unstable, but there are some groups and issues - especially the economy - where he needs to make sure this trend does not continue."

Obama's Day Ahead
President Obama will have a closed meeting with business leaders to discuss innovation and job creation, at 1:45 p.m. ET. At 2:20 p.m. ET, he will deliver public remarks about innovation and jobs. At 4:30 p.m. ET, he will depart from Fort McNair en route to Camp David.

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Topics: Barack Obama, MN-GOV, NY-SEN, Norm Coleman, Senate '10, Sonia Sotomayor, Supreme Court

NY-SEN

Poll: Gillibrand Narrowly Trails Potential 2010 Democratic Primary Challenger

A new Quinnipiac poll of New York suggests that despite her recent efforts to nail down Democratic support, appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is not the frontrunner against a possible primary challenge in 2010 -- in fact, she's running slightly behind, with a high undecided figure.

The numbers: Rep. Carolyn Maloney 27%, Gillibrand 23%, labor activist Jonathan Tasini 4% -- and "undecided" at 44%. The margin of error is ±3%.

Maloney is not officially in the race, but all indications are that she is highly likely to challenge Gillibrand in the primary.

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Topics: NY-SEN, Senate '10

NY-SEN

Gillibrand Rolls Out Endorsements From Sharpton, Meeks

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), who is moving to further lock up support among the Democratic base and solidify her momentum against any potential primary challengers, has just announced the endorsements of Rev. Al Sharpton and Rep. Gregory Meeks.

In the campaign's press release, Sharpton said that Gillibrand is committed to working on issues facing minority communities, and to working with President Obama -- the man who has also made one known phone call to clear the field for her.

"I was impressed that the day after being selected to replace Hillary Clinton in the Senate, she came down to the House of Justice in Harlem to hear the real concerns of the voiceless," Sharpton said. "I am proud to endorse her today because I believe she will be a strong, passionate advocate for children and families. I believe she is committed to working with President Barack Obama to create jobs and improve education for minorities in New York City and across the state."

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Topics: NY-SEN, Senate '10

NY-SEN

McCarthy Not Challenging Gillibrand In 2010 Senate Primary

Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D-NY) has announced that she is not running for Senate, which would have involved a Democratic primary challenge against the appointed incumbent Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand.

It was reported earlier today that Vice President Biden called up Rep. Carolyn Maloney and asked her not to run. President Obama previously made a phone call three weeks ago to Rep. Steve Israel, who had also been gearing up to challenge Gillibrand, and talked him out of the race.

Maloney denied that Biden has pushed her out. "You don't make a decision of that magnitude," she said, "in a telephone conversation."

Late Update: An earlier version of this post confused Carolyn Maloney and Carolyn McCarthy.

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Topics: NY-SEN, Senate '10

NY-SEN

Biden Tells Maloney To Not Challenge Gillibrand In New York Senate Primary

The Hill reports that Vice President Biden spoke this week to Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY), urging her to not run in the Democratic primary for Senate against appointed incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand.

Maloney has been widely reported to be preparing to enter the race soon.

President Obama previously made a phone call three weeks ago to Rep. Steve Israel, who had also been gearing up to run, and told him not to do it. Afterwards, Israel pulled his hat out of the ring. With Obama overseas this week, Biden appears to have picked up the slack.

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Topics: Joe Biden, NY-SEN

Barack Obama

TPMDC Morning Roundup

Obama To Muslim World: "Cycle Of Suspicion And Discord Must End"
In his big speech earlier today in Cairo, Egypt, President Obama reached out to Muslims the world over in an appeal for peace, religious tolerance and understanding, and an overall new beginning for international relations. "So long as our relationship is defined by our differences," Obama said, "we will empower those who sow hatred rather than peace, and who promote conflict rather than the cooperation that can help all of our people achieve justice and prosperity. This cycle of suspicion and discord must end."

Obama's Day In Egypt
President Obama arrived in Cairo, Egypt, at 2:10 a.m. ET (9:10 a.m. local time), and participated in a welcome ceremony at the Quba palace at 2:40 a.m. ET. At 3 a.m. ET, he held a bilateral meeting with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, and at 4:50 a.m. ET he and Sec. of State Clinton toured the Sultan Hassan Mosque. At 6:10 a.m. ET, he gave his big speech. At 8:45 a.m. ET, he toured the Pyramids and the Sphinx. At 11 a.m. ET, he will depart from Cairo International Airport, en route to Dresden, Germany.

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Topics: Barack Obama, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, Mitch McConnell, NY-SEN, Pres '12, Senate '10, Sonia Sotomayor, Stimulus, Supreme Court

Barack Obama

TPMDC Morning Roundup

Today: Obama's And Cheney's Big Speeches On National Security
The big headline event will be a dueling pair of speeches from President Obama and former Vice President Dick Cheney, each laying out their visions for national security. Obama will be discussing at 10:10 a.m. ET the steps his Administration is taking on such issues as Guantanamo Bay and fighting terrorism, while Cheney will be speaking at 10:45 a.m. ET from the American Enterprise Institute, laying out a thorough defense of the Bush Administration's policies and condemning Obama's approach.

Obama's Day Ahead
President Obama will deliver his speech on national security at 10:10 a.m. ET, from the National Archives Museum Rotunda. At 1:30 p.m. ET, he will welcome the Pittsburgh Steelers to the White House, at the South Portico. At 4:15 p.m. ET, he will meet with President Jakaya Kikwete of Tanzania.

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Topics: Afghanistan, Barack Obama, Dick Cheney, Guantanamo Bay, Iraq, Joe Biden, NY-SEN, Senate '10

NY-SEN

Gillibrand Nails Down More Democratic Support For 2010 Senate Race

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) is solidifying her support throughout the Democratic Party -- especially after President Obama moved last week to clear the field for her and successfully urged a potential Democratic primary opponent not to get in the race.

Gillibrand's campaign announced today that she's received more endorsements from the New York House delegation, with Reps. John Hall and Michael Arcuri endorsing her, plus newly-elected Congressman Scott Murphy from Gillibrand's old House district. In addition, she's secured the support of the United Food and Commercial Workers Local 1500, which has 23,000 members.

And yet another potential primary opponent, Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer, has pulled out of the race -- and cited Obama as the reason: "In light of President Obama's clear desire to avoid a Democratic primary in New York State, I have decided to focus on my re-election race for Manhattan Borough President and to suspend my exploratory committee and fund-raising efforts for the 2010 Senate race."

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Topics: NY-SEN, Senate '10

Barack Obama

Dem Congressman Steve Israel Won't Challenge Gillibrand In Primary -- After Obama Phone Call

Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY), who had been preparing to challenge appointed U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in the 2010 Democratic primary, has announced that he will not be running -- at the urging of President Obama, who has now stepped in to clear the field for Gillibrand.

"I spoke with President Obama today," Israel said in a statement. "He asked me that I not run for the U.S. Senate this year."

Israel said this was a tough decision, and he'd received a lot of encouragement to make the race: "But in the interest of providing New York and our country with a united front for progressive change, I have decided to continue my efforts in Congress and not pursue a campaign for the U.S. Senate."

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Topics: Barack Obama, NY-SEN, Senate '10

Barack Obama

TPMDC Morning Roundup

Boxer, Snowe Ask For Female SCOTUS Appointee
Sens. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Olympia Snowe (R-ME) have sent a bipartisan letter to President Obama, asking him to appoint a woman to David Souter's seat on the Supreme Court. "Women make up more than half of our population, but right now hold only one seat out of nine on the United States Supreme Court," they wrote. "This is out of balance. In order for the court to be relevant, it needs to be diverse and better reflect America."

Obama's Day Ahead
President Obama will be hosting a roundtable with business leaders at 11:30 a.m. ET in the Roosevelt Room, to discuss cutting employer health care costs. At 2:25 p.m. ET, he and Vice President Biden will deliver remarks at a Rose Garden ceremony honoring Top Cops award winners. At 3:30 p.m. ET, Obama and Biden will meet with Gen. Ray Odierno and Christopher Hill, the new Ambassador to Iraq, in the Situation Room. At 4:30 p.m. ET, Obama and Biden will meet with Sec. of Defense Robert Gates. At 7:45 p.m. ET, Obama and the First Lady will attend an evening of poetry, music and spoken word in the East Room.

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Topics: Barack Obama, Blue Dogs, Health Care, Joe Biden, NY-SEN, Senate '10, Supreme Court

NY-SEN

Poll: Gillibrand Could Have Trouble In New York

The new Marist Poll in New York suggests that Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand could be in a rough patch, going into her 2010 election after she was appointed by Gov. David Paterson earlier this year.

Former Republican Gov. George Pataki now has a lead of 46%-38% over Gillibrand, while Gillibrand leads GOP Rep. Peter King by 42%-31%. Back in March, Gillibrand led Pataki 45%-41%, and led King 49%-23%. Only 19% of registered voters say Gillibrand is doing an excellent or good job, compared to 38% who give her a fair or poor rating.

In a hypothetical Democratic primary with Rep. Carolyn Maloney, Gillibrand has 36% to Maloney's 31%, with very a high undecided number. On the GOP side, Pataki has a 48%-36% lead over King. Pataki and Maloney are not in the race right now, while King is publicly exploring it.

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Topics: NY-SEN

Barack Obama

TPMDC Morning Roundup

Poll: Americans' Optimism On The Rise
A new AP/GfK poll finds that a 48% plurality of Americans now believe the country is on the right track, compared to 44% who say it is on the wrong track. This is the first time since January 2004, shortly after the capture of Saddam Hussein, that the right-track number edged out the wrong-track figure.

Obama's Day Ahead
President Obama will be speaking at 11 a.m. ET, at the Holocaust Days of Remembrance ceremony at the Capitol. At 1:05 p.m. ET, he will meet with representatives of the credit card industry in the Roosevelt Room. At 2:15 p.m. ET, he and Vice President Biden will meet in the Cabinet Room with the Congressional leadership of both parties. At 3:30 p.m. ET, he will receive the University of Florida football team in the East Room. At 4 p.m. ET, he will meet with Hillary Clinton. At 7:30 p.m. ET, he and the First Lady will host a reception for Congressional members and their spouses, in the Blue Room.

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Topics: Barack Obama, Health Care, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, NY-SEN, Senate, Senate '10

Barack Obama

TPMDC Saturday Roundup

Obama Discusses International Cooperation
In this weekend's YouTube address, President Obama discusses the importance of international cooperation for problems such as the economic crisis, nuclear proliferation, disease and other issues:

"These are challenges that no single nation, no matter how powerful, can confront alone. The United States must lead the way," said Obama. "But our best chance to solve these unprecedented problems comes from acting in concert with other nations."

Pawlenty Talks Taxes In RNC YouTube
In this week's RNC YouTube address, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty uses the weekend before tax day as an occasion to discuss the tax burdens faced by families and businesses:

"I urge President Obama and the Democrat-led Congress to let hardworking American families keep more of what they earn by cutting taxes and reining in spending. It's just common sense," said Pawlenty. "I'm sure you will agree, especially on April 15th when your taxes are due."

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Topics: Barack Obama, Bobby Jindal, George W. Bush, Mark Sanford, NY-SEN, Sarah Palin, Senate '10, Tim Pawlenty

NY-SEN

Gillibrand Announces Raising More Than $2.3 Million Since Senate Appointment

In an e-mail to her supporter list, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) has announced that she raised more than $2.3 million in the two months since she was appointed to the Senate in late January.

Gillibrand is going into her 2010 campaign as a largely unknown quantity, with the new Quinnipiac poll showing her trailing a possible Democratic primary challenger with a high undecided number, and also leading in the general election against a GOP candidate -- again, with a high undecided number.

The cash-on-hand figure hasn't been released, though the campaign tells us this number has itself not been fully calculated yet.

By comparison, during her whole 2008 election cycle for her old House district, Gillibrand raised $4.5 million, with $272,000 left on hand. So at least for now, Gillibrand appears to be doing a decent job of adapting that fundraising work to the scale of a Senate seat.

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Topics: NY-SEN, Senate '10

NY-GOV

Poll: Paterson Way Down In New York, Gillibrand Largely Unknown

A new Quinnipiac poll finds that Gov. David Paterson (D-NY) continues to be on course for a defeat in 2010, should he seek a full term.

In a Democratic primary against state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, Paterson trails by a 61%-18% margin. In a general election with Rudy Giuliani, Rudy is ahead of Paterson by 53%-32%, while at the same time Cuomo would beat Giuliani 53%-36%. The poll also finds that registered voters say Paterson shouldn't run, by a 53%-39% margin -- including a 49%-45% plurality among Democrats.

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Topics: NY-GOV, NY-SEN, Senate '10

NY-GOV

Poll: Paterson In The Dumps

It's really looking like Gov. David Paterson (D-NY) could be a lost cause going into 2010, with a new Siena poll saying that he would get creamed in both the primary and general elections.

Only 14% of registered voters say they would like to see Paterson elected, compared to 67% who want someone else. In a Democratic primary against state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, Paterson has 17% to Cuomo's 67%. In a general election against Rudy Giuliani, Rudy would beat Paterson 56%-33%, while Cuomo is ahead of Rudy 51%-41%.

Things are looking better for appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, with her real obstacle being that people don't know much about her yet. Among registered voters, 23% would elect her and 37% want someone else -- but consider the fact that her favorable rating is 26%, her unfavorable number is 20%, and a solid 54% majority don't have an opinion. Against GOP Congressman Peter King, she leads 47%-23%, while she and former GOP Gov. George Pataki are tied 41%-41%.

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Topics: NY-GOV, NY-SEN, Senate '10

Labor

EFCA, GIllibrand's Seat and the Fight over Labor

Some EFCA updates:

Looks like the Employee Free Choice Act could get introduced as early as next week. It'll easily pass the House when it comes up for a vote, just as it did last year, but passage in the Senate will be hard and it doesn't help that the Minnesota seat remains unresolved.

Tomorrow, Vice President Joe Biden is supposed to give a full-throated defense of the act when he speaks to top AFL officials at their meeting in Miami.

Meanwhile, in the hotly contested House race to replace New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, the Republican, Jim Tedisco was endorsed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce today in no small part because his opponent is supporting EFCA.

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Topics: EFCA, Joe Biden, Labor, NY-20, NY-SEN

NY-GOV

Poll: Paterson's Numbers In The Gutter -- Worse Than Spitzer During Scandal

The new Marist poll has some truly horrible news for David Paterson, saying that he could lose both primary and general elections in landslides.

In a primary against Andrew Cuomo, Paterson is behind by an amazing 62%-26% margin. In a general election match-up with Rudy Giuliani, Paterson gets crushed by 53%-38%, while Cuomo beats Rudy by 56%-39%.

The poll is a whole lot better for newly-appointed Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, though it's not great. Gillibrand edges former GOP Governor George Pataki 45%-41%, and is ahead of GOP Congressman Peter King 49%-28%. In a Democratic primary, Gillibrand is in a near-tie with pro-gun-control Congressman Carolyn McCarthy, with 36% for Gillibrand and 33% for McCarthy.

Here's a sign of just how awful Paterson's ratings are: His approval numbers are worse than Eliot Spitzer's were, when he was in the middle of the prostitution scandal that forced his resignation. Just before he resigned, Spitzer had a 30% excellent/good rating and 64% fair/poor in the Marist poll. By comparison, Paterson is at only 26%-71%.

Another person to feel sorry for here is former Congressman Rick Lazio (R), who ran against Hillary Clinton for the Senate in 2000 -- he actually manages to trail Paterson in a possible gubernatorial match-up by a 47%-35% margin.

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Topics: NY-GOV, NY-SEN, Senate '10

Barack Obama

TPMDC Morning Roundup

Biden: Bush Policies Gave Al Qaeda A Recruitment Tool
Speaking yesterday at CIA Headquarters, Joe Biden told the assembled employees that the new administration will "reverse the policies that in my view and the view of many in this agency caused America to fall short of its founding principles and which gave Al Qaeda a powerful recruiting tool."

Today: Obama And Biden Talking Up Stimulus To Mayors
President Obama and Vice President Biden will be speaking today at the White House to a group of mayors from across the country, to discuss the implementation of the stimulus bill. Mayors who will be in attendance include San Francisco's Gavin Newsom, New Orleans' Ray Nagin, Dallas' Tom Leppert (a Republican) and others.

Hillary On Global Listening Tour
The Washington Post reports that Clinton's first overseas trip has essentially become a global listening tour, in an effort to repair America's image abroad. "My trip here today is to hear your views, because I believe strongly that we learn from listening to one another," she told students at Tokyo University earlier this week. "And that is, for me, part of what this first trip of mine as secretary of state is about."

New York Post Apologizes For Chimp Cartoon
The New York Post has now apologized for the controversial "chimp" cartoon, but they're still, um, sticking to their guns. "It was meant to mock an ineptly written federal stimulus bill. Period," the paper says. But they do acknowledge that some have seen it as a racist depiction: "This most certainly was not its intent; to those who were offended by the image, we apologize."

Appointed Senators Hitting The Trail -- Except Burris
Three of the four appointed Senators are spending the Congressional recess touring their states and discussing the economy, mostly in preparation for re-election -- and even Delaware's Ted Kaufman, who is serving as a caretaker, is meeting with constituents to discuss the issues. The one exception seems to be the embattled Roland Burris, who has canceled his public events and is holding private meetings to figure out his next move.

Report: Cornyn Approaches Pataki For New York Senate Race
The Associated Press reports that NRSC chairman John Cornyn has approached former New York Governor George Pataki to run in the special Senate election in 2010. Pataki served three terms as governor of a Democratic state, so he could be a strong candidate if he runs, though his popularity did go down in the home stretch of his administration.

GOP Candidate In Gillibrand's Seat Won't Say How He Would Have Voted On Stimulus Bill
The stimulus bill is quickly becoming a big issue in the special election for Kirsten Gillibrand's former House seat -- namely, a refusal by Republican candidate Jim Tedisco to say how he would have voted had he been in the House. Tedisco has criticized the bill, but has responded to queries about his bottom-line vote by saying it's a "hypothetical question."

PERMALINK | COMMENTS (36) | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (1)
Topics: Barack Obama, Joe Biden, NY-20, NY-SEN, Senate '10, Stimulus

NY-SEN

Poll: Gillibrand And Paterson Could Be In For Rough 2010

So how are the political fortunes right now for New York Governor David Paterson and the newly-appointed Senator Kirsten Gillibrand? The answer, according to a new Quinnipiac poll: Horrible, with both of them trailing potential challengers in the Democratic primary in 2010.

The poll says that Paterson would lose nomination against state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo by a whopping 55%-23%, while Gillibrand is behind Congresswoman Carolyn McCarthy, a champion of gun control, by 34%-24%.

In a general election, Paterson is tied 43%-43% with Rudy Giuliani, while Cuomo has a 51%-37% lead over Rudy. Gillibrand is still ahead in a general election against Republican Congressman Peter King, with a 42%-26% lead. Unfortunately, there is no match-up of McCarthy against King for comparison.

It gets worse for Paterson. Only 35% approve of how he handled the process of picking a new Senator, with 52% disapproving. Those numbers are distributed pretty evenly across all party lines. Gillibrand herself gets a better approval number on her own specific appointment, with 45% approving of her selection and 33% disapproving, again distributed evenly across party identification.

The primary is a certainly a while from now, and a lot of things can change. But this is not a good starting point.

PERMALINK | COMMENTS (11) | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (1)
Topics: NY-GOV, NY-SEN, Senate '10

Barack Obama

TPMDC Morning Roundup

Obama Visiting The Hill Today
President Obama is headed to Capitol Hill today to work with lawmakers on crafting his economic stimulus plan. Press Secretary Robert Gibbs told reporters that Obama wants to hear lawmakers' ideas, and will take good ones into consideration.

Minnesota Trial Continues Today
The Minnesota election trial is continuing all day today, beginning at 10 a.m. ET in St. Paul. Yesterday was very interesting to say the least, with the Coleman campaign having been revealed to be using altered evidence -- they say the changes were accidental -- and we'll see how today turns out. The pooled video feed is easily available at The Uptake.

Coleman Going On Hannity Tonight
Norm Coleman will be appearing on Fox News tonight, for an interview with Sean Hannity. This should be interesting.

Blago Impeachment Trial Keeps Moving
To the southeast of Minnesota, the Illinois state Senate's impeachment trial of Gov. Rod Blagojevich is also going into its second day. The state Senate will be hearing from FBI Special Agent Daniel Cain, who will review wiretaps allegedly showing Blago shaking down horse-racing industry officials for campaign money, as Blagojevich himself continues to boycott the trial.

Mitchell In Egypt Today
President Obama's new Middle East envoy George Mitchell has arrived in Cairo for his tour of the Middle East today, a mission to help solidify the Gaza ceasefire and to restart the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Mitchell will be traveling through Israel, the West Bank, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, France and Britain.

Gillibrand To Be Sworn In Today
Senator-designate Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) will be sworn in today as the newly-appointed occupant of Hillary Clinton's former Senate seat. Gillibrand will be sworn in by Vice President Biden in the afternoon.

NYT: Geography Divides Dems On Energy
The New York Times reports that the energy debate is revealing divides among Democrats between those from the coasts, who are more favorable to environmentalists, and the industry-friendly Midwesterners. "It's up to those of us in the Midwest to show how important manufacturing is," said Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH). "If we pass a climate bill the wrong way, it will hurt American jobs and the American economy, as more and more production jobs go to places like China, where it's cheaper."

Terry McAuliffe: Virginia Political Outsider
Check out this new TV ad from Terry McAuliffe, in which the former Democratic National Committee chairman presents himself as a political outsider who hasn't been connected to the legislative fights in Virginia, but is instead a successful businessman:

"It goes to show, the best ideas don't always come out of Richmond," says McAuliffe.

PERMALINK | COMMENTS (23) | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)
Topics: Barack Obama, Environment, MN-SEN, NY-SEN, Robert Gibbs, Rod Blagojevich, Stimulus

Barack Obama

TPMDC Saturday Roundup

Obama Promotes Stimulus, Government Accountability In Video Address
In his first Presidential YouTube Address as the sitting chief executive, Barack Obama promoted his stimulus plan, announcing that citizens will be able to hold the government accountable by monitoring the spending at a new Web site called Recovery.gov:

"I know that some are skeptical about the size and scale of this recovery plan," says President Obama. "I understand that skepticism, which is why this recovery plan must and will include unprecedented measures that will allow the American people to hold my Administration accountable for these results. We won't just throw money at our problems - we'll invest in what works."

Obama Meets With Economic Team
President Obama met with his economic team earlier this morning at 11 a.m. ET, in a closed-door gathering.

No Biden Events Today, Will Be On CBS Tomorrow
Vice President Biden has no public events for today. However, he will be appearing on CBS' Face The Nation tomorrow morning, at 10:30 a.m. ET.

Obama On Mexico City Policy: We Must Find Common Ground
President Obama released a statement last night explaining his decision to rescind the Mexico City Policy, saying that family planning should not be made into a divisive political issue: "I have directed my staff to reach out to those on all sides of this issue to achieve the goal of reducing unintended pregnancies. They will also work to promote safe motherhood, reduce maternal and infant mortality rates and increase educational and economic opportunities for women and girls."

Blago's Lawyer: I Quit
Rod Blagojevich's attorney Ed Genson has announced that he is quitting, due to personal difficulties with his soon-to-be-former client's behavior: "I never require a client to do what I say, but I do require them to at least listen." When Blago was asked for comment, he said this was the first he had heard about it.

WaPo: Obama Administration "In An Awkward Phase"
The Washington Post reports that the Obama Administration is still getting settled in, as 3,000 politically-appointed posts remain to be filled and the folks who have been hired are still becoming acclimated. Says the Post: "The big boss is at his desk at the White House, but the vast executive branch is in an awkward phase, lightly sprinkled with political appointees still trying to get permanent badges and locate the restrooms."

NYT Profile: Gillibrand Always An Up And Comer
In a new profile of Senator-designate Kirsten Gillibrand, the New York Times depicts a woman skilled at forging political connections. "I wouldn't be surprised if this carried her even higher onto a national platform," said John Replogle, a Dartmouth classmate and CEO of Burt's Bees. "I could see her in the cabinet, indeed if not throwing her hat into the ring in eight years."

Michelle Obama Objects To Dolls Named After Malia And Sasha
First Lady Michelle Obama is stating her objections to a new pair of dolls being marketed by Ty, the creators of Beanie Babies, that appear to be named after her daughters. Said a spokeswoman for the First Lady: "We feel it is inappropriate to use young private citizens for marketing purpose."

PERMALINK | COMMENTS (28) | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (2)
Topics: Barack Obama, Joe Biden, NY-SEN, Rod Blagojevich

NY-SEN

Paterson Makes Gillibrand Senate Pick Official

New York Gov. David Paterson just held his press conference in Albany to announce the appointment of upstate Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand to the United States Senate seat formerly held by Hillary Clinton.

Paterson started off the speech as he often does, telling an amusing anecdote about how he first met Gillibrand at the state Capitol when he was Lt. Governor, only to end up being in the middle of the 2003 Northeastern blackout. He then touted Gillibrand's work on government reform and economic issues, and for her work on the Armed Services and Agriculture committees.

In her acceptance speech, Gillibrand seemed to back away a bit from her previous "A" rating from the National Rifle Association -- which had led Rep. Carolyn McCarthy to openly threaten a Democratic primary challenge -- by pledging to work with McCarthy on a bill to require better background checks to keep guns out of criminals' hands.

Overall, Gillibrand sought to reach out from her relatively obscure upstate district to the rest of the electorate: "Over the next two years you will get to know me, but much more importantly I will get to know you."

PERMALINK | COMMENTS (9) | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)
Topics: NY-SEN

NY-SEN

Gillibrand Inches Leftward, Now Supports Gay Marriage

Here's another interesting wrinkle from Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand's (D-NY) imminent promotion to the Senate: She appears to have switched her position on gay marriage from a standard "safe" Democratic stance, to now being a full supporter.

Empire State Pride Agenda has put out a press release saying that Gillibrand has spoken to them, and they are glad to say that New York will have its first Senator who endorses full marriage equality. This is a big change for Gillibrand, who previously had a conventional Democratic position of endorsing civil unions and non-discrimination laws, but not being for gay marriage.

To be sure, Gillibrand's voting record on gay rights was not anything that could be called bad. There weren't too many votes on gay issues in the last two years, but she did vote for the Employment Non-Discrimination Act, as well as the hate crimes bill.

Gillibrand's House district voted twice for George W. Bush, then narrowly flipped to Barack Obama in 2008. So one can see why Gillibrand was less than willing to support gay marriage. But if we're looking at this from the assumption of political opportunism, this in turn gives us a new realization: We are now in a world in which endorsing gay marriage can actually be a politically beneficial choice in a statewide setting.

PERMALINK | COMMENTS (37) | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)
Topics: NY-SEN

Barack Obama

TPMDC Morning Roundup

Paterson Expected To Announce Gillibrand For Senate Today
New York Gov. David Paterson will be holding a press conference at 12 p.m. ET to announce whom he is appointing to Hillary Clinton's Senate. Paterson has reportedly picked upstate Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand.

Obama's Schedule For Today
This morning President Obama and VP Joe Biden have a presidential daily briefing at 9:15 a.m. ET, a meeting with both the Democratic and GOP Congressional leadership at 9:45 a.m. ET, and an 11:20 a.m. ET meeting with members of the National Security Council. Obama then has a series of closed meetings in the afternoon: A meeting with Joe Biden and his economic team at 12:40 p.m. ET; lunch with Biden at 1 p.m. ET; a meeting with Biden and the budget team at 2 p.m. ET; and a meeting with Tim Geithner at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Today: More Litigation In Minnesota
The court battles continue today in the Minnesota Senate race, with a 1 p.m. ET hearing on motions for summary judgment. After yesterday's rejection of Al Franken's effort to get Norm Coleman's election-contest lawsuit dismissed immediately, this could be the next opportunity to trim down the various claims in the lawsuit.

Senate Confirms Six More Obama Nominees
The Senate last night confirmed six nominees to serve in the Obama Administration: Susan Rice as ambassador to the United Nations; Ray LaHood as Sec. of Transportation; Shaun Donovan at HUD; Mary Schapiro as chair of the SEC; Lisa Jackson as EPA administrator; and Nancy Sutley to head up the White House Council of Environmental Quality.

Obama Keeping BlackBerry, Under Special Conditions
President Obama has arrived at a carefully-negotiated compromise in his efforts to keep his BlackBerry. Among other conditions, only a small group of senior staff and friends will have his e-mail address, his own messages will be designed to not be forwardable, and any e-mails will be subject to the Presidential Open Records Act, which could eventually put them into the public domain.

WaPo: McCain The Maverick Is Back
The Washington Post reports that the pre-2007 John McCain, the one who would occasionally irk his hard-line GOP colleagues by making peace with the Dems, appears to have made a comeback. The change in mood was most apparent when he castigated Republicans who were delaying Hillary Clinton's nomination to be Secretary of State, reminding them that the country had just had an election.

McCain To Meet With Palin Soon
John McCain told Larry King that he remains close with Sarah Palin, dismissing the idea that there's any bad blood between them. "Look, we're very close friends," McCain said, "and I talk to her all the time and look forward to seeing her, I think, in a week or so."

PERMALINK | COMMENTS (19) | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)
Topics: Barack Obama, Joe Biden, John McCain, MN-SEN, NY-SEN

NY-SEN

Report: Gillibrand To Get Hillary's Senate Seat

The Albany Times Union and other outlets are reporting that New York Gov. David Paterson will appoint upstate Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand to Hillary Clinton's former Senate seat.

Gillibrand was first elected in 2006 in a narrow win against incumbent Republican Rep. John Sweeney, then won by a landslide in 2008 against wealthy businessman Sandy Treadwell. Gillibrand proved to be a prolific fundraiser herself in that race, spending over $4 million.

So Paterson gets to a) court women voters, b) court upstate voters, and c) recruit a candidate who can bring in a lot of money in case of a tough race.

It makes sense.

PERMALINK | COMMENTS (77) | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)
Topics: NY-SEN

Hillary Clinton

TPMDC Morning Roundup

It's Official: Caroline Ends Senate Bid
Caroline Kennedy released a short statement declaring that she was ending her bid to be appointed to Hillary Clinton's former Senate seat: "I informed Governor Paterson today that for personal reasons I am withdrawing my name from consideration for the United States Senate."

Obama's Schedule For Today
Here are President Obama's morning events: A closed-door meeting with economic advisers at 9:40-9:55 a.m. ET; a 10:00-10:15 a.m. ET closed meeting with senior staff; a 10:30-11:35 a.m. ET meeting with retired military officers, with pooled press. Then in the afternoon: A closed meeting with Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, National Security Adviser James Jones and Deputy National Security Adviser Tom Donilon, from 1:50-2:30 p.m. ET; and then he and Hillary will speak to State Department employees, from 2:40-3:00 p.m., with pooled press.

Today: Obama Expected To Order Gitmo Closure
The New York Times reports that President Obama is expected to issue his executive orders today to close the CIA's network of secret prisons and to shut down the Guantanamo Bay prison camp. The orders will require an immediate review of the 245 detainees at Gitmo, though the whole process of closing the camp will take place over a year's time.

Former Gitmo Prisoner: The Prison Will Still Hurt America
A former Guantanamo inmate told CNN that the legacy of Gitmo will continue to damage the United States even if President Obama successfully shuts it down. "Guantanamo Bay is the most notorious prison on earth," said Moazzam Begg, a British citizen who was captured in Afghanistan and later freed in 2005, without ever having been prosecuted.

Obama Staffers Discover Primitive White House
The Washington Post reports that the new White House staffers, who were used to a campaign driven by technology, are now discovering a White House setup with old technology and legal prohibitions on the use of Facebook, outside e-mail accounts, instant messaging and other modes of communications. "It is kind of like going from an Xbox to an Atari," said spokesman Bill Burton.

Obama Stimulus Could Be Boon For K Street
The Hill reports that lobbying firms are cautiously optimistic that business will pick up from corporate America, even in the difficult economy, due to the impact of President Obama's stimulus proposals. "Big decisions are going to be made, and corporate America is aware of it," said Smith Davis, a partner at lobbying firm Akin Gump.

LAT: "Hope" Poster Apparently Swiped From Photo
The Lose Angeles Times reports that the iconic "Hope" poster of Obama appears to have been copied from an Associated Press photo of Obama from 2006. Perhaps worse, the possibility exists that at the moment the photo was taken, Obama was listening to a very grisly speech about the genocide in Darfur.

PERMALINK | COMMENTS (22) | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (0)
Topics: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, NY-SEN

NY-SEN

Caroline Is Out In Out In?

So is Caroline Kennedy in or out for Hillary Clinton's Senate seat?

Earlier tonight it was reported that Caroline Kennedy had withdrawn her bid to be appointed by Gov. David Paterson, first from the New York Post, then picked up again by the New York Times.

Then NBC News reported that a Kennedy family source told them that Caroline has not withdrawn -- that there was a "miscommunication" between herself and Gov. David Paterson's office. But they've since then revised their report to say she's really out.

And now check out this hilarious AP news alert, time stamped at 10:38 p.m. ET:

Source: Caroline Kennedy remains in contest to fill Hillary Clinton's NY Senate seat. (Corrects APNewsAlert with source saying Kennedy had withdrawn.)

Just when we thought she was out...she pulls herself back in.

PERMALINK | COMMENTS (44) | RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (2)
Topics: NY-SEN

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